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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714312 is a reply to message #714310 ]
Thu, 03 May 2018 16:14 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Kr55 wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 15:48

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 15:33

PlusOne wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 15:16

Fair points but I have a couple questions


RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 15:01



I don't think the guys I listed are good enough NHL goalies. Everyone agrees Talbot and the .908 he ended up with wasn't good enough. So why would I want to bring in another guy with similar or worse numbers?



If we are signing a guy for one year who is a clear back up his numebrs don't have to be better than what we expect from Talbot, just decent backup number

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 15:01



Lehtonen in a reduced role had a .912 this past year. The previous years he was .902, .906, .903. He will be 35 in November. I am not confident that a 35 yr old goalie will put up .910 or better numbers, I think he will put up numbers similar to what he did the previous years which isn't good enough.

Halak put up .908 this past season. When I look at his numbers, his numbers are decent. However, I personally have never been a fan of him. He lost his job to Griess who's not that good either, spent half of last season in the minors last year so there had to be a reason. Goaltending was the main reason the Isles didn't make the playoffs. By today's standards he's really small. Why would I want to bring in a goalie who's small by today's standards and not that great?

Ward was .906 this season. He was .905, .909, .910, .898, .908. Other than he grew up in Sherwood Park, I see nothing appealing about him.

Lack this season when he was with Calgary was .813, spent time in the minors, went to New Jersey where he was .903. Then previously he was ,.902, .901. Those are brutal numbers.

Johnson was .891 in Buffalo and ,.910 the previous year. Not good enough.

Pavelec was .910 this past season. Then he was .888 and spent most of the year in the minors as a Jet. Then .904. Jumped to .920, then was .901, .905, .906. Not good enough.

There is just a few of them. Mzazek has been bad for several years now. Maybe I think about Lehner but I think he gets more money than what they paid Koskinen. But maybe he would have been a guy to role the dice on IF you could even get him.


You are using .910 as a benchmark. From a lot of people that is seen as line in the sand for an starting goalie. Of goalies with more than 10GP there were 39 in the league last season that achieved at so it seems fine to use.

Take the names, bias on size, personal, or a seemingly arbitrary accusation of bad, most of the guys you list fall in that .910 acceptable range.

By your own numbers you have listed a number of guys that fall in the .900-.910 category and listed not good enough a few times.

Just so I am clear and if I am we can agree to disagree.
You are not happy with the signing but are ok with hoping and praying(your words) that Koskinen is substantially better that one of the options the Oilers could have gone after, likely for a lower price?
Does that sum up your opinion on the signing?




I am done debating with you. I stupidly broke my own rule and responded to one of your posts and I have done it more than once. Definitely a mistake on my part. I don't know how many times I can say that I don't like the signing. I said the money was a bit high for my tastes. I said I really dislike gambling on a guy that is a complete unknown and that I would not have done it. The only thing remotely positive I have said is its a 1 yr deal and I really hope it works out. Hockey is my favorite sport to play and watch. The Oilers are my team, I have been a fan my entire life. I want my team to win so that is why I hope it works out because if it doesn't, it hurts my team. I don't know what else you want me to say.

Have a nice day.


You can at least all be proud that you are likely putting more thought into this whole situation than Chia, Lowe and Friends did :)


The Oilers management conversation was probably something like:

"We need a backup"
"Hey, this guy won a bunch of KHL championships and wants to try the NHL again"
"Sign him for whatever he wants"

On the surface it looks that way. I don't know who did the evaluation of Koskinen but if its the same guy that thought Gustavsson was good and to a lesser extend Montoya, the Oilers could be in trouble.

I actually don't mind having Montoya even if it's in the minors because right now the Oilers don't have a lot of goaltending depth. Brossoit crashed and burned and I assume is gone. Ellis needs a new contract. He looked good his first year in the AHL but was brutal this past season. I am not a goalie expert but if you can't get over .900 in the minors it's not looking too good. Do they even bring him back? They have Starrett who was in the ECHL, Wells who I think will turn pro and maybe Skinner though I am not sure he's old enough. Pretending that Koskinen actually works out, if they didn't have Montoya and something happened, who would be their #3?

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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714313 is a reply to message #714311 ]
Thu, 03 May 2018 16:33 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently offline Adam
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So I did my own homework on this. Quickly pulled save percentages for all goalies with at least 10 appearances last year. There were 71 goalies that saw that level of action.

For Top 30 - Mean was .921, Median was .921, lowest was .913

So by that logic, your average starter should be in the .920 or better range, and you should be expecting minimum performance of around .913 from your starter.

For Next 30 - Mean was .907, Median was .908, and lowest was .898. So your backup should be in the .908 range if he's average. At bare minimum, he should be .900.

For third strings, the worst 11 goalies had an average of .890 with a median of .893.

Interesting to note that the guys acquired by Chiarelli in Edmonton were #46 (Talbot - .908 - average backup numbers), #57 (Nilsson - .901 - bad backup numbers), #66 (Montoya - .893 - middle of the road third string numbers) and #70 (Brossoit - .883 - second worst in the entire league and a major contributor to the lost season). That's pretty damning. Maggie the Monkey would have picked better goaltending than that. The only saving grace I suppose is that three of those goalies played behind a bad Oilers team which certainly contributed to their poor showing on save percentage.

[Updated on: Thu, 03 May 2018 16:35]

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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714314 is a reply to message #714309 ]
Thu, 03 May 2018 16:46 Go to previous messageGo to next message
PlusOne is currently offline PlusOne
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RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 15:33


I am done debating with you. I stupidly broke my own rule and responded to one of your posts and I have done it more than once. Definitely a mistake on my part. I don't know how many times I can say that I don't like the signing. I said the money was a bit high for my tastes. I said I really dislike gambling on a guy that is a complete unknown and that I would not have done it. The only thing remotely positive I have said is its a 1 yr deal and I really hope it works out. Hockey is my favorite sport to play and watch. The Oilers are my team, I have been a fan my entire life. I want my team to win so that is why I hope it works out because if it doesn't, it hurts my team. I don't know what else you want me to say.

Have a nice day.


Easy man, I thought we were having a good discussion. I wasn't accusing you of defending it or cutting down your view. My last line asking if I had your POV correct was genuine.

I am and was trying to engage with you in a respectful way.

I was actually trying to see if I was wrong on the available goalie thing. Maybe the goalies on the market are junk and I was not seeing it.

Just because we disagree doesnt mean either of us is wrong or being disrespectful. I am not sure why you took this stance. I was happy discussing how we were.
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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714323 is a reply to message #714303 ]
Fri, 04 May 2018 08:31 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently offline RDOilerfan
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mightyreasoner wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 14:14

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 13:13

Part of the problem and this isn't me trying to justify the signing is I don't see anyone of the NHL free agents both UFA and RFA that I am confident in or they could get.

I don't want Lehtonen, Halak, Ward, Lack, Johnson, Pavelec, all UFA's. Lehner is an RFA, I am not a fan of his and I thin he gets a least 2.5 mill, he was making 4 mill last year. Mrazek is an RFa and was crappy. Bernier was making 2.75 mill. He was decent so I think he gets at least what he made last year or more. Helleuyck obviously is Winnipegs guy. Grubeauer was making 1.5 ill, have an excellent year and I see a team like Buffalo maybe trying to get him. Regardless he's making more than 2.5 mill. Hutton for the Blues was outstanding and will get WAY more than 2.5 mill. Hammond no thanks. Hutchinson hasn't been in the league in a few years. Khudobin was ok for Boston but do they let him go?

I just listed the first 15 goalies listed needing a contract and the only 2 I would like is Grubauer and Hutton and they might be in line for some starters jobs but at the very least probably get more than 2.5 mill.


FWIW, I'd be much happier with Bernier at 2.75 than Koskinen at 2.5. You know what you're getting with Bernier. And if Talbot goes down, Bernier proved he can get a half decent team to the playoffs.

Or you can look for a guy who is being squeezed by his current team. Pickard looks fully capable of being a solid backup. Both him and Subban were on waivers last season and the Oilers passed on both. Still can probably get Pickard in a trade. Or maybe you sign Cale Morris and another goalie for the AHL, roll with Montoya and see if those two develop or any other goalies hit the waiver wire like Pickard and Subban did this year.

It was very early to make a decision about an unknown commodity and to pay that much for him. If you are spending 2.5, at least see if Bernier, Graubauer, Halak, or Hutton would accept it first. You know what you're getting and it's less likely to go off the rails.


In my opinion, the Oilers need a goalie who can play at least 20-25 games. Montoya is most definitely not that guy. I am not rolling the dice on a college free agent. Could Pickard do it? Maybe. I just wonder at 26 yrs old, what his deal is. Why hasn't he stuck anywhere yet?

When it comes to the UFA guys you listed. You'd be asking Bernier to move to Edmonton and take a pay cut. What realistically are the odds that happens? Buffalo needs 2 new goalies because I heard a Buffalo media guy on Gregor's show say both Lehner and Johnson will be gone. Carolina's goaltending was a disaster. The Flyers goaltending was lousy and they need 2 goalies. The Islanders have Griess still signed but he was lousy and Halak will be gone. Who's the starter in St. Louis? They have Allen but Hutton might have took that job last season. So that's 5 teams with unsettled goaltending and potentially 5 starters job. Both Hutton and Grubauer had really good numbers and I would assume they would get starters offers or at least 1A jobs from a few of the teams I listed. So they will make way more than 2.5 mill.

[Updated on: Fri, 04 May 2018 08:41]

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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714527 is a reply to message #714304 ]
Fri, 11 May 2018 09:00 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Jay is currently offline Jay
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CrudeRemarks wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 14:27

Right, and what just work all summer? What's the point of missing the playoffs if you're going to be in the office until June anyways?

I just want to say this actually made me laugh out loud.

Its a great point. These guys have been working hard all winter. In the trenches I'd say. They absolutely need and deserve 2 or 3 months at the cottage to drink wine, jetski and recharge their batteries. This team isn't going to ruin...I mean run itself next year you know!

"Initiative comes to thems that wait"

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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714987 is a reply to message #714202 ]
Fri, 25 May 2018 14:00 Go to previous messageGo to next message
BenS is currently offline BenS
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Good move!

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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714991 is a reply to message #714323 ]
Fri, 25 May 2018 14:51 Go to previous messageGo to next message
inverno76 is currently offline inverno76
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It’s a bad signing because you’re giving him too much money. The only way he fulfills his potential deal is if becomes a top back up in the league. There is no value to the deal. You can only lose or break even. Couldn’t imagine running a business where your only goal was to break even.

If he’s unbelievable he earns his contract. Anything less and we lose.

I’d rather run with Montoya.

[Updated on: Sat, 26 May 2018 19:37]

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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #724414 is a reply to message #714159 ]
Sun, 09 December 2018 23:01 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently offline Kr55
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I have to say, I kinda like this Koskinen guy.

He works his butt off out there. You can see why Hitch says he's a good teammate that guys want to play for. He battles his butt off.


Reflecting on the judgement of him based on his KHL stats. Thinking about it more...how much can you really know about a goalie from his KHL stats while playing for a stacked team? Is it the players fault that he probably has an easy night almost every game? He let in a goal every ~16 shots. If he only let one in every 17 shots he would have had even more amazing stats, sure, but...he didn't have to, the team lit people up, winning was easy.

Really, the only way to know what this guy was in any recent history would have been by scouting him.

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- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #724415 is a reply to message #724414 ]
Sun, 09 December 2018 23:08 Go to previous messageGo to next message
stemhovlichski is currently offline stemhovlichski
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Kr55 wrote on Sun, 09 December 2018 23:01

I have to say, I kinda like this Koskinen guy. <snip>

Really, the only way to know what this guy was in any recent history would have been by scouting him.



...or having your old buddy Jari Kurri tip you off for old time's sake. Don't give the scouts credit unless they deserve it! icon_lol



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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #724416 is a reply to message #724415 ]
Sun, 09 December 2018 23:11 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently offline Kr55
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stemhovlichski wrote on Sun, 09 December 2018 23:08

Kr55 wrote on Sun, 09 December 2018 23:01

I have to say, I kinda like this Koskinen guy. <snip>

Really, the only way to know what this guy was in any recent history would have been by scouting him.



...or having your old buddy Jari Kurri tip you off for old time's sake. Don't give the scouts credit unless they deserve it! icon_lol




Oh yeah, for sure. I don't mean to give the Oilers and scouts all kinds of credit here :)

But, i do feel I was wrong to pass judgement on this guy based on his KHL stats. Like comparing him to that no-name guy the Avs signed that didn't make it through training camp (although, he looks like he's doing well in the AHL at least).

His recent play time was in a grey area where it's really hard to judge a player just based on his stats. Like if you were over a year into playing for Dallas Eakins in the NHL, people would be wrong to judge anyone taking part in something as ridiculous as that :)

[Updated on: Sun, 09 December 2018 23:14]

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #724423 is a reply to message #724416 ]
Mon, 10 December 2018 08:08 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently offline RDOilerfan
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9-3 with one of those losses given to him only because he played more than Talbot in the Av's game but he only gave up 1 goal while Talbot gave up 3. 2.06 GA, .929% and 3 shut outs. At the time the signing seemed to be a way to much but with the way he is playing, he's probably going to end up playing close to half the year and if you are getting quality starts from him most games, the contract is fine. He's been superior to Talbot and it's not even close. They are darn lucky to have him as without him, they would probably be deadlast in the league with the way Talbot was playing. It was interesting to listen to Hitch who said last night that Zubov who is a coach on the team that Koskinen played for in the KHL called him and told him rave reviews. I am cautiously optimistic they have a good one in him.

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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #724427 is a reply to message #724423 ]
Mon, 10 December 2018 08:20 Go to previous messageGo to next message
OilPeg is currently offline OilPeg
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RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 10 December 2018 09:08

9-3 with one of those losses given to him only because he played more than Talbot in the Av's game but he only gave up 1 goal while Talbot gave up 3. 2.06 GA, .929% and 3 shut outs. At the time the signing seemed to be a way to much but with the way he is playing, he's probably going to end up playing close to half the year and if you are getting quality starts from him most games, the contract is fine. He's been superior to Talbot and it's not even close. They are darn lucky to have him as without him, they would probably be deadlast in the league with the way Talbot was playing. It was interesting to listen to Hitch who said last night that Zubov who is a coach on the team that Koskinen played for in the KHL called him and told him rave reviews. I am cautiously optimistic they have a good one in him.


You keep saying that he got a loss in that Colorado game, he didn't. He lost Nov 6 to Tampa Bay, Nov 17 to Calgary and Dec 3 to Dallas. He didn't have a decision in that Colorado game because Talbot gave up what would be the winning goal, that's how they do it if I'm not mistaken. Has nothing to do with minutes played.

I agree with you that the Oilers are lucky they made this signing, as critical as most of us were at the time, it's turned out really well.

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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #724428 is a reply to message #724427 ]
Mon, 10 December 2018 08:32 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently offline RDOilerfan
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OilPeg wrote on Mon, 10 December 2018 08:20

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 10 December 2018 09:08

9-3 with one of those losses given to him only because he played more than Talbot in the Av's game but he only gave up 1 goal while Talbot gave up 3. 2.06 GA, .929% and 3 shut outs. At the time the signing seemed to be a way to much but with the way he is playing, he's probably going to end up playing close to half the year and if you are getting quality starts from him most games, the contract is fine. He's been superior to Talbot and it's not even close. They are darn lucky to have him as without him, they would probably be deadlast in the league with the way Talbot was playing. It was interesting to listen to Hitch who said last night that Zubov who is a coach on the team that Koskinen played for in the KHL called him and told him rave reviews. I am cautiously optimistic they have a good one in him.


You keep saying that he got a loss in that Colorado game, he didn't. He lost Nov 6 to Tampa Bay, Nov 17 to Calgary and Dec 3 to Dallas. He didn't have a decision in that Colorado game because Talbot gave up what would be the winning goal, that's how they do it if I'm not mistaken. Has nothing to do with minutes played.

I agree with you that the Oilers are lucky they made this signing, as critical as most of us were at the time, it's turned out really well.

Sorry, I read a stat wrong. My mistake.

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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #724433 is a reply to message #724423 ]
Mon, 10 December 2018 09:23 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently offline Kr55
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RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 10 December 2018 08:08

9-3 with one of those losses given to him only because he played more than Talbot in the Av's game but he only gave up 1 goal while Talbot gave up 3. 2.06 GA, .929% and 3 shut outs. At the time the signing seemed to be a way to much but with the way he is playing, he's probably going to end up playing close to half the year and if you are getting quality starts from him most games, the contract is fine. He's been superior to Talbot and it's not even close. They are darn lucky to have him as without him, they would probably be deadlast in the league with the way Talbot was playing. It was interesting to listen to Hitch who said last night that Zubov who is a coach on the team that Koskinen played for in the KHL called him and told him rave reviews. I am cautiously optimistic they have a good one in him.


woah woah. What's with all the railing on Talbot still? He's played 3 games very well for us since Hitch came here, all 3 he's played under Hitch. Do you want Talbot to fail that badly?

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"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #724437 is a reply to message #724433 ]
Mon, 10 December 2018 09:47 Go to previous messageGo to next message
NZ Oiler Fan is currently offline NZ Oiler Fan
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Kr55 wrote on Mon, 10 December 2018 12:23

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 10 December 2018 08:08

9-3 with one of those losses given to him only because he played more than Talbot in the Av's game but he only gave up 1 goal while Talbot gave up 3. 2.06 GA, .929% and 3 shut outs. At the time the signing seemed to be a way to much but with the way he is playing, he's probably going to end up playing close to half the year and if you are getting quality starts from him most games, the contract is fine. He's been superior to Talbot and it's not even close. They are darn lucky to have him as without him, they would probably be deadlast in the league with the way Talbot was playing. It was interesting to listen to Hitch who said last night that Zubov who is a coach on the team that Koskinen played for in the KHL called him and told him rave reviews. I am cautiously optimistic they have a good one in him.


woah woah. What's with all the railing on Talbot still? He's played 3 games very well for us since Hitch came here, all 3 he's played under Hitch. Do you want Talbot to fail that badly?


It's almost as if the team learned how to play D since Hitch took over.
Weird

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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #724441 is a reply to message #724433 ]
Mon, 10 December 2018 10:07 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Kr55 wrote on Mon, 10 December 2018 09:23

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 10 December 2018 08:08

9-3 with one of those losses given to him only because he played more than Talbot in the Av's game but he only gave up 1 goal while Talbot gave up 3. 2.06 GA, .929% and 3 shut outs. At the time the signing seemed to be a way to much but with the way he is playing, he's probably going to end up playing close to half the year and if you are getting quality starts from him most games, the contract is fine. He's been superior to Talbot and it's not even close. They are darn lucky to have him as without him, they would probably be deadlast in the league with the way Talbot was playing. It was interesting to listen to Hitch who said last night that Zubov who is a coach on the team that Koskinen played for in the KHL called him and told him rave reviews. I am cautiously optimistic they have a good one in him.


woah woah. What's with all the railing on Talbot still? He's played 3 games very well for us since Hitch came here, all 3 he's played under Hitch. Do you want Talbot to fail that badly?


I didn't know know telling the truth about Talbot was railing him. All I said about him was he hasn't been very good for most of the season. That's true. He has been a lot better the last few starts which is great. I like Talbot, I want him to do well. If you remember I felt he was poised to bounce back. The Oilers need him to be good. But you don't have a 3.12 GA and a .895% if you have had a good season. But as I said, I really hope the way he has played the last few games is a sign has finally found his game and he's back.

When it comes to the defense. Yes Hitchcock has made some changes and the team is a lot better defensively BUT prior to Hitch, Koskinen played on the same team with the same coaches, under the same system with the same dmen and he was significantly better. So you can't pin all the woes of Talbot on the defense.

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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #724443 is a reply to message #724441 ]
Mon, 10 December 2018 10:11 Go to previous message
Kr55 is currently offline Kr55
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RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 10 December 2018 10:07

Kr55 wrote on Mon, 10 December 2018 09:23

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 10 December 2018 08:08

9-3 with one of those losses given to him only because he played more than Talbot in the Av's game but he only gave up 1 goal while Talbot gave up 3. 2.06 GA, .929% and 3 shut outs. At the time the signing seemed to be a way to much but with the way he is playing, he's probably going to end up playing close to half the year and if you are getting quality starts from him most games, the contract is fine. He's been superior to Talbot and it's not even close. They are darn lucky to have him as without him, they would probably be deadlast in the league with the way Talbot was playing. It was interesting to listen to Hitch who said last night that Zubov who is a coach on the team that Koskinen played for in the KHL called him and told him rave reviews. I am cautiously optimistic they have a good one in him.


woah woah. What's with all the railing on Talbot still? He's played 3 games very well for us since Hitch came here, all 3 he's played under Hitch. Do you want Talbot to fail that badly?


I didn't know know telling the truth about Talbot was railing him. All I said about him was he hasn't been very good for most of the season. That's true. He has been a lot better the last few starts which is great. I like Talbot, I want him to do well. If you remember I felt he was poised to bounce back. The Oilers need him to be good. But you don't have a 3.12 GA and a .895% if you have had a good season. But as I said, I really hope the way he has played the last few games is a sign has finally found his game and he's back.

When it comes to the defense. Yes Hitchcock has made some changes and the team is a lot better defensively BUT prior to Hitch, Koskinen played on the same team with the same coaches, under the same system with the same dmen and he was significantly better. So you can't pin all the woes of Talbot on the defense.


I don't know why we can't compliment Koskinen without having to tear down Talbot though. What's wrong with having 2 good goalies? That kind of situation won the Pens 2 cups in a row.

And I do personally think the team played very different for Talbot than they did for Koskinen. I think Todd was a coach that would push the mentality that the goalie is letting the team down. He complained many times after games about how they couldn't get a save. Koskinen hasn't had to live through a down period here, and all goalies have them eventually, no matter how good they are. He's lucky he never had to struggle under Todd and how mentally fragile this team was under him. He could have fallen down the same hole that every other goalie that's been here under Todd did before him.

[Updated on: Mon, 10 December 2018 10:15]

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

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