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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674461 is a reply to message #674457 ]
Sat, 02 July 2016 14:31 Go to previous messageGo to next message
rjayd2 is currently offline rjayd2
Messages: 20
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton
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Kr55 wrote on Sat, 02 July 2016 14:00

rjayd2 wrote on Sat, 02 July 2016 13:53

Skookum Jim wrote on Sat, 02 July 2016 13:39

nullterm wrote on Sat, 02 July 2016 12:34

TJ39 wrote on Sat, 02 July 2016 12:33

Wait til Larsson gets booed cause of Hall. It's not his fault obviously. Who trades Hall ? Only the Oil. McDavid & Hall should have been the two untouchables. Pitt won the cup with speed.


That's my fear. Oilers fans are traditionally harsh and unforgiving towards Oilers defencemen.


This would be different, the past booing (still bush) was because of perceived lack of performance or effort. This booing would be directed at management, specifically Chiarelli, and especially if Larsson's sitting with 2 pts by Christmas time, and a +- of -20.
Chiarelli made the trade NOW, because he said they needed to win NOW, and Chiarelli should be judged and criticized accordingly. If they are out of the playoffs by Christmas time as usual, then his job should be on the line, he's put it there.


So express any ill-conceived displeasure towards Chiarelli/management directly where possible. Larsson should be cheered and supported being him performing well is key to us getting better as a team. Booing him directly is saying you don't want the team to get better... because Taylor Hall! Anyone ends up doing that is a total moron and should be fired from fandom.




I don't think Larsson will be the type to ever short change the fans on his effort. He will be working his tail off out there consistently.

I suppose he could get the Petry treatment though, where just because he's always out on the ice against the best players, he is in the picture when we get scored on by the best players. Therefore, because fans see him a lot out there when we get scored on by good players, it's all his fault if the Oilers are losing games. Because obviously it can't be the fault of the rest of the team getting to play against easier competition and doing nothing with that ice time, that is too abstract of a concept. The best way to avoid that reaction by fans it to actually win more than you lose. Fingers crossed we can do that next year.


I'll admit looking back I was guilty of a bit of that. Still not a huge fan of the type of player he is (or maybe it's his emotionless, meek personality that always irked me and felt like we had too much of on the team at the time) but in hind sight how much better would we look right now with Petry slotted in as the 2nd pair RHD? Pretty much the player people are wanting us to sign in Demers.

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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674566 is a reply to message #674461 ]
Sun, 03 July 2016 21:42 Go to previous messageGo to next message
nullterm is currently offline nullterm
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Greg Wyshynski Verified account
‏@wyshynski
Taylor Hall said Edmonton was "taken from him," when discussing chat with Chiarelli. #Oilers

Take that as you will.

I do feel bad for him, he stuck with the team, loyal when it came to contract. Now he's stuck in Jersey till 2020 without much around him.

But this is a business. And the team was not progressing. It was still perennial bottom three. It was built wrong (from the wings). It's painful correcting that. And that's what is happening, which hurts for Hall and us the fans.

It's just a messy situation where no one wins, but you hope things atleast turn around for everyone involved.

[Updated on: Sun, 03 July 2016 22:10]

Illegitimi non carborundum.

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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674580 is a reply to message #673755 ]
Mon, 04 July 2016 09:15 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently offline Kr55
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Will you miss the "Taylor Hall Toe Drag"?[ 28 vote(s) ]
1.Yes! 8 / 29%
2.Hell no! 20 / 71%

So, I realised that the age of Taylor Hall toe drags has come to an end while he wears an Oilers uniform. I'm not sure if there is any move an Oiler would make that would unite fans in collective disgust (aside from maybe an Eberle puck dusting allowing goalies to come across the net and line up to the shot). It only worked once every couple years, but it was attempted time and time again much to our dismay. But, at the same time, it was a move that did a good job showing was Hall was all about. He was a horse out there, always pushing forward, always trying to do something great. Even if his stick skills weren't elite he would try anything not caring what the odds of success were.

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674583 is a reply to message #674580 ]
Mon, 04 July 2016 10:20 Go to previous messageGo to next message
halfafrog is currently offline halfafrog
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If you have NHL.tv aka the former Game Center, you can watch Larsson all you want. I just watched a number of games and pretty much all game summaries from Jan 1 on, which is a about 5 minutes per game showing all goals and he appears to be the real deal. Yeah, thats right, lots of extra time on a long weekend to do that. I have no complaints. We are getting a legit #1 D man (despite what the Toronto media says......they can go back to cannibalizing the Leafs). We can all whine we will miss Hall's scoring, but we weren't getting above 25th in the league with him and this team needed a culture and core change. I certainly won't miss Hall's defensive lapses. This is it. From what I saw, I thought Larsson was better than Greene, their so called #1 D man. Granted, I only watched from Jan 1 on. Larsson is a true shut down D man. He isn't much offensively but he really can shut players down from Ovechkin to Crosby.

I am not sure what people are complaining about so much as the return (a draft pick thrown in would have been nice) but this team was as Lucic said, not intimidating in any way, shape or form and we could play only one style of hockey. Now we are a bit more versatile and can bang and play a speed game. We still need one more D man but if Sekera plays like he did in the second half, Klefbom stays healthy, and with the addition of Larsson our D already is much better. I thought we were in some ways a bit lucky as we had injuries that helps bring us lower in the last part of the season. I don't think next year we will be drafting nearly so well. Still lots of time til October for more pieces to fall into place.



So this is what hope feels like?

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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674584 is a reply to message #674425 ]
Mon, 04 July 2016 10:24 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Goose is currently offline Goose
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Team Dean wrote on Sat, 02 July 2016 08:36

And here's what the out of market opinion is on Chiarelli. Warning, it isnt good:

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/peter-chiarelli-and-the-problem -with-tunnel-vision-trending-topics-050439733.html



Adam posted this article in the Where Does Larsson Rank thread. I posted a much longer reply to it there if you want to read it.

But basically I think the article is ridiculous and the author comes across as a whiny six year old. Essentially says that Chiarelli fluked his way to a Stanley Cup and that the Hall trade was the worst trade of the salary cap era. I think the Oilers alone have made two more lopsided trades (both Pronger trades) in that timeframe.

Also says that the Oilers are going into year 3 of this version of their rebuild. Not sure how he determined that this version of the rebuild started the year before we drafted McDavid, but it doesn't help his credibility in my mind.

Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674593 is a reply to message #674583 ]
Mon, 04 July 2016 10:58 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Lew19 is currently offline Lew19
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I'ce accepted the fact that I might of been one of the only few who was happy the moment this trade was made. Did we get a significant return for our beloved Taylor Hall? I think the only thing we we're missing in that deal was a 2nd rd pick. That is it. Sure Taylor was an elite LW in the NHL, but outside of the that he had won the Memorial cup twice. That's it. We've had him on our roster since 2010. Since then we have not finished our season anywhere near a playoff spot, and our season has been done long before Christmas. He wasn't enough.
After watching as many games as I could where Hall would break up the ice, attempt to beat 2-3 guys, lose the puck, and watch our team hopelessly chase the puck all the way back into our end, eventually digging the puck out of the cage. Those days are finally over. When Taylor Hall is your top offensive guy outside Connor McDavid, in this day's NHL, that isn't enough. He was good, but never great. He never carried this team like we all in Edmonton thought. Sure he drove, had some passion, but remember there where weeks when he didn't score. Now to compare Larsson's offensive ability to Taylor Hall is like comparing a Ducati to a Lexus. Sure both are very nice, but at the end of the day, your going to be better off with the Lexus.
I think Charelli did a decent job accessing the needs of this team, and finding the one piece that would make this deal work. Hall's in the east now, where he can play his type of game. The west was too big for him, and with as many injuries as he had since 2010, he'll be better off playing in the East. I hope the rumours i've been hearing about the type of person he was in the dressing room are false, and that maybe that whole "cancer" in the dressing room thing is finally sorted out.
I look forward to meaningful hockey come February finally, and a new team to watch in a brand new top of the line rink. It's too bad Taylor Hall doesn't get to be a part of that, but at the end of the day, I think it's a calculated risk worth taking.

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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674595 is a reply to message #674593 ]
Mon, 04 July 2016 11:09 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently offline Adam
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Lew19 wrote on Mon, 04 July 2016 10:58

I'ce accepted the fact that I might of been one of the only few who was happy the moment this trade was made. Did we get a significant return for our beloved Taylor Hall? I think the only thing we we're missing in that deal was a 2nd rd pick. That is it. Sure Taylor was an elite LW in the NHL, but outside of the that he had won the Memorial cup twice. That's it. We've had him on our roster since 2010. Since then we have not finished our season anywhere near a playoff spot, and our season has been done long before Christmas. He wasn't enough.
After watching as many games as I could where Hall would break up the ice, attempt to beat 2-3 guys, lose the puck, and watch our team hopelessly chase the puck all the way back into our end, eventually digging the puck out of the cage. Those days are finally over. When Taylor Hall is your top offensive guy outside Connor McDavid, in this day's NHL, that isn't enough. He was good, but never great. He never carried this team like we all in Edmonton thought. Sure he drove, had some passion, but remember there where weeks when he didn't score. Now to compare Larsson's offensive ability to Taylor Hall is like comparing a Ducati to a Lexus. Sure both are very nice, but at the end of the day, your going to be better off with the Lexus.
I think Charelli did a decent job accessing the needs of this team, and finding the one piece that would make this deal work. Hall's in the east now, where he can play his type of game. The west was too big for him, and with as many injuries as he had since 2010, he'll be better off playing in the East. I hope the rumours i've been hearing about the type of person he was in the dressing room are false, and that maybe that whole "cancer" in the dressing room thing is finally sorted out.
I look forward to meaningful hockey come February finally, and a new team to watch in a brand new top of the line rink. It's too bad Taylor Hall doesn't get to be a part of that, but at the end of the day, I think it's a calculated risk worth taking.


He also won two World Championships the last two years. And scored pretty well at both tournaments. He was the MVP in both Memorial Cup wins, and was on the Tournament All-Star team for the 2015 World Championship.

I disagree with your assessment on good vs. great. He's top three in the league at even strength points per game over the last several years. He did carry this team, but it was so poorly put together, from management to coaching to player personnel to team culture that one or two or five players weren't going to pull the team up the standings by themselves. It's debatable whether the team is improved enough to make the playoffs next year too.

That whole "cancer in the room" stuff is completely overblown. Look at what McDavid said about Hall when he learned of the trade. You don't get that kind of heartfelt tribute when your teammates don't like you. There may have been some issues in the past (in part because our glorious management did such a good job creating divisions in the room when they talked at length about core and named off all the players in that special "in" group), but clearly, there weren't a lot now. I fully expect to see more of these rumours circulated in the coming months, because you'll have guys in the Oilers organization trying to justify what they've done and it's so easy to whisper in Stauffer's ear that the fans need to hear more bad things about Hall.

Taylor Hall will now be the top offensive guy for the New Jersey Devils. Ray Shero seems to think that he's good enough, even without a Connor McDavid above him. We'll see how that plays out. They still have a pretty flawed team too...but they took a pretty good step in the right direction last week.



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674622 is a reply to message #673755 ]
Mon, 04 July 2016 12:35 Go to previous messageGo to next message
NetBOG is currently offline NetBOG
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This trade should teach everybody a lesson about the value of wingers vs big centres and defenceman.

Even the Oilers weren't going to move Draisaitl (big centre) to get a defenceman. They chose to deal an elite winger instead because he was easier to replace.

Smart teams like Carolina, Nashville, and Anaheim load up on centres and defenceman at the draft and then move them later on for other pieces when they need them.

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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674624 is a reply to message #674622 ]
Mon, 04 July 2016 12:47 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently offline Adam
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NetBOG wrote on Mon, 04 July 2016 12:35

This trade should teach everybody a lesson about the value of wingers vs big centres and defenceman.

Even the Oilers weren't going to move Draisaitl (big centre) to get a defenceman. They chose to deal an elite winger instead because he was easier to replace.

Smart teams like Carolina, Nashville, and Anaheim load up on centres and defenceman at the draft and then move them later on for other pieces when they need them.


Or the value of good general managers.

I'd like to post a bunch of comparables showing the return for other great young wingers, but they just don't get traded. There's almost no comparable that you can post for the Hall deal.

Heatley was 24 when first traded and went to Ottawa for Devries and Hossa. He was 28 when Ottawa traded him, first for Penner, Smid and Cogliano (vetoed by Heatley) and then for Michalek, a declining Cheechoo and a second round pick. He had forced their hand though, saying he was done playing in Ottawa and publicly demanding a trade, then using his NTC to force it to be with one of only a handful of teams.

Hossa was a 29-year old free agent-to-be when he was traded with Pascal Dupuis for Colby Armstrong, Erik Christensen, Angelo Esposito and a 1st round pick in the 2008 draft.

Lucic was a 27 year old going in to his last year of his contract when the Bruins dealt him for Colin Miller, Martin Jones and a 1st round pick in the 2015 draft.

I'm struggling to even come up with young wingers who put up numbers and were signed to long-term deals who've been traded, so I don't know if their value is that intrinsically low, or smart GMs just see their value and hold on to them unless something forces their hand.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674626 is a reply to message #674593 ]
Mon, 04 July 2016 12:48 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Boniman is currently offline Boniman
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Lew19 wrote on Mon, 04 July 2016 10:58

I'ce accepted the fact that I might of been one of the only few who was happy the moment this trade was made. Did we get a significant return for our beloved Taylor Hall? I think the only thing we we're missing in that deal was a 2nd rd pick. That is it. Sure Taylor was an elite LW in the NHL, but outside of the that he had won the Memorial cup twice. That's it. We've had him on our roster since 2010. Since then we have not finished our season anywhere near a playoff spot, and our season has been done long before Christmas. He wasn't enough.
After watching as many games as I could where Hall would break up the ice, attempt to beat 2-3 guys, lose the puck, and watch our team hopelessly chase the puck all the way back into our end, eventually digging the puck out of the cage. Those days are finally over. When Taylor Hall is your top offensive guy outside Connor McDavid, in this day's NHL, that isn't enough. He was good, but never great. He never carried this team like we all in Edmonton thought. Sure he drove, had some passion, but remember there where weeks when he didn't score. Now to compare Larsson's offensive ability to Taylor Hall is like comparing a Ducati to a Lexus. Sure both are very nice, but at the end of the day, your going to be better off with the Lexus.
I think Charelli did a decent job accessing the needs of this team, and finding the one piece that would make this deal work. Hall's in the east now, where he can play his type of game. The west was too big for him, and with as many injuries as he had since 2010, he'll be better off playing in the East. I hope the rumours i've been hearing about the type of person he was in the dressing room are false, and that maybe that whole "cancer" in the dressing room thing is finally sorted out.
I look forward to meaningful hockey come February finally, and a new team to watch in a brand new top of the line rink. It's too bad Taylor Hall doesn't get to be a part of that, but at the end of the day, I think it's a calculated risk worth taking.


I'm with you. Hall spent half his ice time falling down. We needed a jolt. This is it. If you would have asked me either to keep Hall or trade him for playoffs I'd do the trade.



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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674630 is a reply to message #674626 ]
Mon, 04 July 2016 13:38 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Burgeoboy is currently offline Burgeoboy
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Hey all

I have been on the board, pretty much everyday for the past ten years, I don't sign in much and never post , but I am here reading everyday. Not sure why this topic made me want to speak out , it's not like I feel anything I say, well change anyone's mind lol .

Anyway, here it goes, first, anyone that thought we were going to get a solid rd , without over paying is crazy, that was never going to happen. Why would a team trade away an asset that is hard to come by for one that can easily be found in free agency . Outside of Hall and Macdavid, what do we have to offer that a team couldn't get in free agency and keep there top pairing d man ?
So you need to offer something they couldn't get else where .

There are very few teams looking to move high end d men , so there becomes a supply and demand issue. The Oilers were on the worng side of that . I think thats the part most people don't get , teams weren't shopping them , (maybe subban, but with Monterals ask and Subbans contract, I'd pass on that to).

This is how I see it, Let's say someone knocks on your door and ask you to sell your house, now you have no plans on selling and don't want to move, plus you find out this guy really needs a house on your street and no one else seem to be selling .

Are you going to say , yes sir no problem , market vaule is $500,000 so give me that and done deal? Of course not . Now, let's say your that guy, that needs this house , everyone has turned you down, what do you do ? Just walk away cause no one is giving a fair deal ? No , your going to go back around , see what the best deal you can get is, knowing your going need to over pay .

So having to over pay, plus knowing C and D have move vaule then wingers, this deal doesn't surprise me at all . Was I happy ? No. Did we over pay ? Yes, but I get that we needed to . Could we have gotten more for hall ? Sure, if you want more prospects and picks I bet we could have, but that doesn't fix our d problem. If my choices are this deal or no deal for a rd . Then I take this deal everyday of the week .

I could make a post on how hall isn't a top 3 lw, points aren't everything, there's 2 end of the rink , just ask team Canada why he wasn't even a serious contender for their past two best on best teams. But I save that for my next post in about ten years lol . And I not knocking Hall, I love him , his jersey hanging on my new borns bedroom wall, but I do think most here over vaule him .

Anyway like I said, not happy with this deal , but I get it .

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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674631 is a reply to message #674626 ]
Mon, 04 July 2016 13:39 Go to previous messageGo to next message
nullterm is currently offline nullterm
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Boniman wrote on Mon, 04 July 2016 11:48

Lew19 wrote on Mon, 04 July 2016 10:58

I'ce accepted the fact that I might of been one of the only few who was happy the moment this trade was made. Did we get a significant return for our beloved Taylor Hall? I think the only thing we we're missing in that deal was a 2nd rd pick. That is it. Sure Taylor was an elite LW in the NHL, but outside of the that he had won the Memorial cup twice. That's it. We've had him on our roster since 2010. Since then we have not finished our season anywhere near a playoff spot, and our season has been done long before Christmas. He wasn't enough.
After watching as many games as I could where Hall would break up the ice, attempt to beat 2-3 guys, lose the puck, and watch our team hopelessly chase the puck all the way back into our end, eventually digging the puck out of the cage. Those days are finally over. When Taylor Hall is your top offensive guy outside Connor McDavid, in this day's NHL, that isn't enough. He was good, but never great. He never carried this team like we all in Edmonton thought. Sure he drove, had some passion, but remember there where weeks when he didn't score. Now to compare Larsson's offensive ability to Taylor Hall is like comparing a Ducati to a Lexus. Sure both are very nice, but at the end of the day, your going to be better off with the Lexus.
I think Charelli did a decent job accessing the needs of this team, and finding the one piece that would make this deal work. Hall's in the east now, where he can play his type of game. The west was too big for him, and with as many injuries as he had since 2010, he'll be better off playing in the East. I hope the rumours i've been hearing about the type of person he was in the dressing room are false, and that maybe that whole "cancer" in the dressing room thing is finally sorted out.
I look forward to meaningful hockey come February finally, and a new team to watch in a brand new top of the line rink. It's too bad Taylor Hall doesn't get to be a part of that, but at the end of the day, I think it's a calculated risk worth taking.


I'm with you. Hall spent half his ice time falling down. We needed a jolt. This is it. If you would have asked me either to keep Hall or trade him for playoffs I'd do the trade.



Perenial bottom finisher. Change was coming, and still likely is coming. They built the team ass backwards around wingers, and it's going to be painful undoing that so we're built around our centers and defence.

Illegitimi non carborundum.

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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674645 is a reply to message #673755 ]
Mon, 04 July 2016 15:52 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently offline Kr55
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Just some stats for fun:

Larsson ZS adjusted 5v5 points/60 in 14/15: 1.17 (#1 on NJD) 25% OZ starts - 38.9 DZ starts
Greene ZS adjusted 5v5 points/60 in 14/15: 0.90 (#2 on NJD) 26.8% OZ starts - 38.3% DZ starts


Larsson ZS adjusted 5v5 points/60 in 15/16: 0.58 (#2 on NJD) 21.6% OZ starts - 46.7% DZ starts
Greene ZS adjusted 5v5 points/60 in 15/16: 0.29 (#6 on NJD) 21.6% OZ starts - 45.5% DZ starts


I'm inclined to think that whatever John Hynes started doing in 15/16 was absolutely brutal for Larsson and Greene. Severson got the benefit of Larsson and Greene being buried getting 34.3% OZ starts and 26.4% DZ starts and had 0.92 ZS adjusted 5v5 points/60.

Still nasty zone starts in 14/15, but Larsson produced pretty well 5v5 that year.

Last Oilers to have 1.17 ZS adjusted points/60 5v5:

Ryan Whitney 2010/11 - 1.76
Sheldon Souray 2008/09 - 1.30
Denis Grebeshkov 2008/09 - 1.30
Tom Gilbert 2008/09 - 1.20

Site I'm using doesn't have the 06/07 season or before.


Another funny stat is that Larsson had a point on 61.3% of goals scored 5v5 when he was on the ice in 14/15. That was the highest % in the NHL among regular D in 14/15. Really shows how pathetic NJD forwards were that year

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674647 is a reply to message #674645 ]
Mon, 04 July 2016 15:56 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently offline Adam
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What's zone start adjusted points?

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674648 is a reply to message #674647 ]
Mon, 04 July 2016 16:00 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently offline Kr55
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Adam wrote on Mon, 04 July 2016 15:56

What's zone start adjusted points?


I think the zone start adjustment removes events that happen in the first 10 seconds after a faceoff. The idea is that 10 seconds after a faceoff, the advantage or consequence of where the faceoff happened is removed. It helps, but it certainly isn't going to remove all the causes of where the zone start happened. Like, if you're on a crap team that sucks at faceoffs, odds are a lot of the time you're still gonna be stuck in your end 10 seconds after a defensive zone faceoff against the best players the other team can ice :)

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- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674650 is a reply to message #674648 ]
Mon, 04 July 2016 16:12 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently offline Adam
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Kr55 wrote on Mon, 04 July 2016 16:00

Adam wrote on Mon, 04 July 2016 15:56

What's zone start adjusted points?


I think the zone start adjustment removes events that happen in the first 10 seconds after a faceoff. The idea is that 10 seconds after a faceoff, the advantage or consequence of where the faceoff happened is removed. It helps, but it certainly isn't going to remove all the causes of where the zone start happened. Like, if you're on a crap team that sucks at faceoffs, odds are a lot of the time you're still gonna be stuck in your end 10 seconds after a defensive zone faceoff against the best players the other team can ice :)


I wish some enterprising Oilers fan would come up with all the video for all Larsson's points and post it. Would be interesting to see how he's getting his numbers. Is it chip up the boards and they score on the rush? Is it a Duncan Keith seeing-eye pass from his own goal-line to the other team's blueline? Is he carrying it and setting it on a tee?

I am pretty worried about his shot rate. He played ~22 minutes a game for 82 games this year. That's 1804 minutes total. His 65 shots mean he was getting one shot off for every 27:45 of ice time. That's not good.

That again could speak to his usage though. The numbers were significantly better in 2014-15. He had 91 shots in 64 games. If he was playing the same minutes (and I don't know his minutes per game for 2014-15), that's about 15:30 per shot which is a heck of a lot better.

What's the outlier though? His previous two years were below a shot per game and in his rookie year he was right about a shot per game (although likely playing less minutes per game).

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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674652 is a reply to message #674630 ]
Mon, 04 July 2016 17:17 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Rocksteady is currently offline Rocksteady
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Burgeoboy wrote on Mon, 04 July 2016 13:38

Hey all

I have been on the board, pretty much everyday for the past ten years, I don't sign in much and never post , but I am here reading everyday. Not sure why this topic made me want to speak out , it's not like I feel anything I say, well change anyone's mind lol .

Anyway, here it goes, first, anyone that thought we were going to get a solid rd , without over paying is crazy, that was never going to happen. Why would a team trade away an asset that is hard to come by for one that can easily be found in free agency . Outside of Hall and Macdavid, what do we have to offer that a team couldn't get in free agency and keep there top pairing d man ?
So you need to offer something they couldn't get else where .

There are very few teams looking to move high end d men , so there becomes a supply and demand issue. The Oilers were on the worng side of that . I think thats the part most people don't get , teams weren't shopping them , (maybe subban, but with Monterals ask and Subbans contract, I'd pass on that to).

This is how I see it, Let's say someone knocks on your door and ask you to sell your house, now you have no plans on selling and don't want to move, plus you find out this guy really needs a house on your street and no one else seem to be selling .

Are you going to say , yes sir no problem , market vaule is $500,000 so give me that and done deal? Of course not . Now, let's say your that guy, that needs this house , everyone has turned you down, what do you do ? Just walk away cause no one is giving a fair deal ? No , your going to go back around , see what the best deal you can get is, knowing your going need to over pay .

So having to over pay, plus knowing C and D have move vaule then wingers, this deal doesn't surprise me at all . Was I happy ? No. Did we over pay ? Yes, but I get that we needed to . Could we have gotten more for hall ? Sure, if you want more prospects and picks I bet we could have, but that doesn't fix our d problem. If my choices are this deal or no deal for a rd . Then I take this deal everyday of the week .

I could make a post on how hall isn't a top 3 lw, points aren't everything, there's 2 end of the rink , just ask team Canada why he wasn't even a serious contender for their past two best on best teams. But I save that for my next post in about ten years lol . And I not knocking Hall, I love him , his jersey hanging on my new borns bedroom wall, but I do think most here over vaule him .

Anyway like I said, not happy with this deal , but I get it .


Thanks for posting! It's always great to see someone who is not a regular chime in.

You know, you're right. This was quite likely the scenario that Chia was facing, and it was a gun to head scenario that made him pull the trigger.

Sad but very true!

The very definition of insanity is doing the exact same thing expecting different results.

Generally Disappointed.

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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674661 is a reply to message #674652 ]
Mon, 04 July 2016 18:07 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi is currently offline CrusaderPi
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I realize I've been pretty busy with life and haven't posted my thoughts on the trade yet, which I assume people are clamoring for. I tried searching the thread for the number of times my username was mentioned, but I think there's a problem with the search tool. MJ: if you wouldn't mind fixing this for me, I would really appreciate it.

Anyway, I'm mostly in favor of the trade. Hall for Larsson tells me a couple of things: I was right about the Oilers ruining Hall's early career, I suspect he'll develop a certain amount of bile for the Oilers as he ages and is exposed to competent hockey management. I was right about the Oilers (read: OBC) running concurrent rebuilds that were both doomed to fail. I also tend to believe that Hall was a problem in the room. Of course, we'll never know if that is true, but it seems very possible that a sense of entitlement given by the fans and management (read: OBC) was damaging to his development. Finally, this trade tells me that everything between MacTavish stepping down as coach until the McDavid lottery win was an absolute and total waste as far as we fans should be concerned. Even still, I'm not yet willing to say we've reached the nadir and are on the rise though. This could still be part of the descent. Chiarelli and the Oilers will have to prove things are getting better before I believe things are getting better.

Larsson is in for a tough time here. If he goes 1-4-5 in his first 20 games, which wouldn't be awful, he'll attain whipping boy status. I doubt he plays his contract out in Edmonton and someone will have "Hall>>>Larsson>>>whomever" as their signature on the day Chiarelli is fired.

Hard to believe the Hall pick was a bust for the Oilers, isn't it?

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674662 is a reply to message #674630 ]
Mon, 04 July 2016 18:13 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi is currently offline CrusaderPi
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Burgeoboy wrote on Mon, 04 July 2016 13:38

Hey all

I have been on the board, pretty much everyday for the past ten years, I don't sign in much and never post , but I am here reading everyday. Not sure why this topic made me want to speak out , it's not like I feel anything I say, well change anyone's mind lol .

Anyway, here it goes, first, anyone that thought we were going to get a solid rd , without over paying is crazy, that was never going to happen. Why would a team trade away an asset that is hard to come by for one that can easily be found in free agency . Outside of Hall and Macdavid, what do we have to offer that a team couldn't get in free agency and keep there top pairing d man ?
So you need to offer something they couldn't get else where .

There are very few teams looking to move high end d men , so there becomes a supply and demand issue. The Oilers were on the worng side of that . I think thats the part most people don't get , teams weren't shopping them , (maybe subban, but with Monterals ask and Subbans contract, I'd pass on that to).

This is how I see it, Let's say someone knocks on your door and ask you to sell your house, now you have no plans on selling and don't want to move, plus you find out this guy really needs a house on your street and no one else seem to be selling .

Are you going to say , yes sir no problem , market vaule is $500,000 so give me that and done deal? Of course not . Now, let's say your that guy, that needs this house , everyone has turned you down, what do you do ? Just walk away cause no one is giving a fair deal ? No , your going to go back around , see what the best deal you can get is, knowing your going need to over pay .

So having to over pay, plus knowing C and D have move vaule then wingers, this deal doesn't surprise me at all . Was I happy ? No. Did we over pay ? Yes, but I get that we needed to . Could we have gotten more for hall ? Sure, if you want more prospects and picks I bet we could have, but that doesn't fix our d problem. If my choices are this deal or no deal for a rd . Then I take this deal everyday of the week .

I could make a post on how hall isn't a top 3 lw, points aren't everything, there's 2 end of the rink , just ask team Canada why he wasn't even a serious contender for their past two best on best teams. But I save that for my next post in about ten years lol . And I not knocking Hall, I love him , his jersey hanging on my new borns bedroom wall, but I do think most here over vaule him .

Anyway like I said, not happy with this deal , but I get it .

20 posts over 10 years? With numbers like that it's hard to believe MacTavish or Lowe hasn't given you a contract yet. Anyway, keep on posting.

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674669 is a reply to message #674661 ]
Mon, 04 July 2016 19:03 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently offline Kr55
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CrusaderPi wrote on Mon, 04 July 2016 18:07

I realize I've been pretty busy with life and haven't posted my thoughts on the trade yet, which I assume people are clamoring for. I tried searching the thread for the number of times my username was mentioned, but I think there's a problem with the search tool. MJ: if you wouldn't mind fixing this for me, I would really appreciate it.

Anyway, I'm mostly in favor of the trade. Hall for Larsson tells me a couple of things: I was right about the Oilers ruining Hall's early career, I suspect he'll develop a certain amount of bile for the Oilers as he ages and is exposed to competent hockey management. I was right about the Oilers (read: OBC) running concurrent rebuilds that were both doomed to fail. I also tend to believe that Hall was a problem in the room. Of course, we'll never know if that is true, but it seems very possible that a sense of entitlement given by the fans and management (read: OBC) was damaging to his development. Finally, this trade tells me that everything between MacTavish stepping down as coach until the McDavid lottery win was an absolute and total waste as far as we fans should be concerned. Even still, I'm not yet willing to say we've reached the nadir and are on the rise though. This could still be part of the descent. Chiarelli and the Oilers will have to prove things are getting better before I believe things are getting better.

Larsson is in for a tough time here. If he goes 1-4-5 in his first 20 games, which wouldn't be awful, he'll attain whipping boy status. I doubt he plays his contract out in Edmonton and someone will have "Hall>>>Larsson>>>whomever" as their signature on the day Chiarelli is fired.

Hard to believe the Hall pick was a bust for the Oilers, isn't it?


This proves nothing. This was still all part of Lowe's master plan. Hall was the temporary hope that would lead to maximum hope!

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674671 is a reply to message #674662 ]
Mon, 04 July 2016 19:38 Go to previous messageGo to next message
WhoreableGuy is currently offline WhoreableGuy
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CrusaderPi wrote on Mon, 04 July 2016 18:13


20 posts over 10 years? With numbers like that it's hard to believe MacTavish or Lowe hasn't given you a contract yet. Anyway, keep on posting.


I'd make the signing based on hope and potential, it would be an overpay in the first couple of years but it will balance out in the long run.

"Bah Gawd! Would somebody stop the damn draft!"

- Jim Ross calling the NHL Draft Lotto 2015 as the Oilers win

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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674675 is a reply to message #674650 ]
Mon, 04 July 2016 21:10 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Team Dean is currently offline Team Dean
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Ooohhh, I just had a salty idea. Somebody should buy a Taylor Hall New Jersey jersey and wear it to the Oilers games. Ooooh burn. Just to burn Chia.

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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674680 is a reply to message #674675 ]
Tue, 05 July 2016 00:24 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Skookum Jim is currently offline Skookum Jim
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Team Dean wrote on Mon, 04 July 2016 20:10

Ooohhh, I just had a salty idea. Somebody should buy a Taylor Hall New Jersey jersey and wear it to the Oilers games. Ooooh burn. Just to burn Chia.


Wait until after the all star game when Hall represents NJ.

McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!!
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P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674694 is a reply to message #673755 ]
Tue, 05 July 2016 09:20 Go to previous messageGo to next message
WhoreableGuy is currently offline WhoreableGuy
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Travis Yost on the Hall trade: http://www.tsn.ca/why-one-dimensional-larsson-wasn-t-enough- for-hall-1.521260

Why are fancy stats so polarizing sometimes? I guess I'm the problem if I don't take the time to understand them. It's tough to get over this trade when I read an article like this every day.

The misunderstanding is that the fans against this trade were totally against trading Hall but all fans were open to it if the return was somewhat fair. This trade wasn't even close.

I hope I get to eat crow on this one.

"Bah Gawd! Would somebody stop the damn draft!"

- Jim Ross calling the NHL Draft Lotto 2015 as the Oilers win

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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674697 is a reply to message #674694 ]
Tue, 05 July 2016 09:58 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Goose is currently offline Goose
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WhoreableGuy wrote on Tue, 05 July 2016 08:20

Travis Yost on the Hall trade: http://www.tsn.ca/why-one-dimensional-larsson-wasn-t-enough- for-hall-1.521260

Why are fancy stats so polarizing sometimes? I guess I'm the problem if I don't take the time to understand them. It's tough to get over this trade when I read an article like this every day.

The misunderstanding is that the fans against this trade were totally against trading Hall but all fans were open to it if the return was somewhat fair. This trade wasn't even close.

I hope I get to eat crow on this one.


Ugh, Travis Yost is not smart. He writes well, and on the surface it can seem like he knows what he's talking about. But I find his analysis is so superficial.

Take his analysis of the value of draft picks where he uses games played as proxy for player value. Sounds good on the surface, but are we really assuming that a game played by Sidney Crosby has the same value as a game played by Luke Gazdic:

http://www.tsn.ca/examining-the-true-value-of-toronto-s-firs t-overall-pick-1.491169

Based on his analysis, Toronto would have got fair value for Austin Matthews by trading with Philly for 2 seconds, 2 thirds, a fifth and a sixth round pick. Does anyone think that makes any sense?

As for this article, just using raw Corsi or raw GF numbers is immediately a red flag as NJ was one of the worst Corsi and the worst goal scoring teams in the league. So I'm not sure how much you can expect the needle to move, or how much of that can be attributed to Larsson. REL numbers in these scenarios are much more informative.

Second, he says there are "plenty of instances in which he saw decent or favourable offensive zone starts". Great. What does that mean? 10 games? 15 games? Considering how brutal his zone starts were overall, my assumption is that the number of games in which he had positive zone starts is pretty small, meaning that there may be sample size issues there. Yost doesn't give us that detail though, so I can only speculate, and I don't have time to go and look at all of Larsson's games right now.

Also, he provides zero context. What do these graphs look like for other defencemen with brutal zone starts. Or even what do the graphs look like for all the other d-men on NJ? Is this Larsson issue or a NJ issue?



Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674701 is a reply to message #674697 ]
Tue, 05 July 2016 10:21 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently offline Adam
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I think the point is clear though - he doesn't think Larsson is enough of a return for Taylor Hall.

That seems to be an across the board belief. The guy in the video beside Dreger (is that Button?) is defending the move, but once again he says "Obviously Taylor Hall is the better player". I've heard Button defend his record as GM saying he lost trades to make his team better so maybe he's feeling for Chiarelli right now. Of course, Button was a horrible GM too...soooo...

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674703 is a reply to message #674701 ]
Tue, 05 July 2016 10:27 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Goose is currently offline Goose
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Adam wrote on Tue, 05 July 2016 09:21

I think the point is clear though - he doesn't think Larsson is enough of a return for Taylor Hall.

That seems to be an across the board belief. The guy in the video beside Dreger (is that Button?) is defending the move, but once again he says "Obviously Taylor Hall is the better player". I've heard Button defend his record as GM saying he lost trades to make his team better so maybe he's feeling for Chiarelli right now. Of course, Button was a horrible GM too...soooo...


Does anyone reasonable think that it's good return though? My issue isn't with not liking the trade, it's the level of piling on that's going on that bothers me.

I want to see thoughtful, well constructed arguments about what Larsson is or isn't and what this means for the Oilers. Not bloggers whining that this is the worst trade of the salary cap era, or saying that Larsson is worse than a guy that the Blackhawks put on buyout waivers (David Rundblad), or filler like Yost posted.

Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674704 is a reply to message #674697 ]
Tue, 05 July 2016 10:28 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Magnum is currently offline Magnum
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Goose wrote on Tue, 05 July 2016 09:58

WhoreableGuy wrote on Tue, 05 July 2016 08:20

Travis Yost on the Hall trade: http://www.tsn.ca/why-one-dimensional-larsson-wasn-t-enough- for-hall-1.521260

Why are fancy stats so polarizing sometimes? I guess I'm the problem if I don't take the time to understand them. It's tough to get over this trade when I read an article like this every day.

The misunderstanding is that the fans against this trade were totally against trading Hall but all fans were open to it if the return was somewhat fair. This trade wasn't even close.

I hope I get to eat crow on this one.


Ugh, Travis Yost is not smart. He writes well, and on the surface it can seem like he knows what he's talking about. But I find his analysis is so superficial.

Take his analysis of the value of draft picks where he uses games played as proxy for player value. Sounds good on the surface, but are we really assuming that a game played by Sidney Crosby has the same value as a game played by Luke Gazdic:

http://www.tsn.ca/examining-the-true-value-of-toronto-s-firs t-overall-pick-1.491169

Based on his analysis, Toronto would have got fair value for Austin Matthews by trading with Philly for 2 seconds, 2 thirds, a fifth and a sixth round pick. Does anyone think that makes any sense?

As for this article, just using raw Corsi or raw GF numbers is immediately a red flag as NJ was one of the worst Corsi and the worst goal scoring teams in the league. So I'm not sure how much you can expect the needle to move, or how much of that can be attributed to Larsson. REL numbers in these scenarios are much more informative.

Second, he says there are "plenty of instances in which he saw decent or favourable offensive zone starts". Great. What does that mean? 10 games? 15 games? Considering how brutal his zone starts were overall, my assumption is that the number of games in which he had positive zone starts is pretty small, meaning that there may be sample size issues there. Yost doesn't give us that detail though, so I can only speculate, and I don't have time to go and look at all of Larsson's games right now.

Also, he provides zero context. What do these graphs look like for other defencemen with brutal zone starts. Or even what do the graphs look like for all the other d-men on NJ? Is this Larsson issue or a NJ issue?




The fact that he is using/comparing different sample sizes is evidence of bias. You can't say, in the small sample he had X, therefore the large sample results suggest Y. You have to use the same or similar sample sizes, otherwise you're manufacturing conclusions - this is eXpecially true considering the ware and tare of a full NHL season. So yeah, that article sounds bunk. The saddest part is Yost knows about zone starts stats and is abusing the stat, it would be more forgivable if he was ignorant.

Anyone who sees Larsson's advanced stats and thinks he's anything short of a top 1 or 2 shutdown d-men is not very good at reading advanced stats, or is biased, or is trying the earn website clicks. Sure there are qualitative items (such as his pairing with Greene), which are speculative, and would suggest that he's not, but there's nothing in the numbers suggests otherwise.

2015/2016 - This Kool-Aid tastes like McDavid flavoured Drain-O.
2016/2017 - This Kool-Aid is starting to taste like juice.
2017/2018 - I'm drinking this Kool-Aid, in hopes that it's Drain-O.
2018/2019 - Another round of Drain-O, good sir!

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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674714 is a reply to message #674645 ]
Tue, 05 July 2016 10:39 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently offline Kr55
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Another fun stat.

I'm pretty certain that Greene and Larsson set a post-lockout (basically as far as I'm able to look back) record for the highest % of zone starts 5v5 being in their own end. Larsson holds the record with Greene close behind. Very rare for a regular D to have >40% DZ starts 5v5 through a season. Greene and Larsson both got >45%.

[Updated on: Tue, 05 July 2016 10:45]

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674717 is a reply to message #674703 ]
Tue, 05 July 2016 10:52 Go to previous messageGo to next message
ziltoid is currently offline ziltoid
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Goose wrote on Tue, 05 July 2016 10:27

Adam wrote on Tue, 05 July 2016 09:21

I think the point is clear though - he doesn't think Larsson is enough of a return for Taylor Hall.

That seems to be an across the board belief. The guy in the video beside Dreger (is that Button?) is defending the move, but once again he says "Obviously Taylor Hall is the better player". I've heard Button defend his record as GM saying he lost trades to make his team better so maybe he's feeling for Chiarelli right now. Of course, Button was a horrible GM too...soooo...


Does anyone reasonable think that it's good return though? My issue isn't with not liking the trade, it's the level of piling on that's going on that bothers me.

I want to see thoughtful, well constructed arguments about what Larsson is or isn't and what this means for the Oilers. Not bloggers whining that this is the worst trade of the salary cap era, or saying that Larsson is worse than a guy that the Blackhawks put on buyout waivers (David Rundblad), or filler like Yost posted.


I would also like to add in the narrative that you can't give up the best player in the deal and become a better team overall. That one drives me particularly mad.

Watch me do it right now:

I trade the entire Oilers Roster minus Lander to Pittsburg for their entire roster minus Crosby. Pittsburgh gets the best player in McDavid, but the new Oilers team will be better than they were before... unless of course you believe the Oilers current roster is better than the reigning cup champion's roster (or that Malkin is better than McDavid). Hell, you could make the same trade with ANY of the playoff teams (our entire roster minus our worst player for their entire roster minus their best player) and we would STILL be a better team (last I checked, we've been out of the playoffs for a while).

icon_rolleyes

Now, I don't know if we are a better team with Larsson than with Hall -- that will play itself out over the course of the season -- but I do THINK we will be better off with Larsson for a variety of reasons (0% of which surround Hall's character, FYI).

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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674718 is a reply to message #674703 ]
Tue, 05 July 2016 10:53 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently offline Adam
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Goose wrote on Tue, 05 July 2016 10:27

Adam wrote on Tue, 05 July 2016 09:21

I think the point is clear though - he doesn't think Larsson is enough of a return for Taylor Hall.

That seems to be an across the board belief. The guy in the video beside Dreger (is that Button?) is defending the move, but once again he says "Obviously Taylor Hall is the better player". I've heard Button defend his record as GM saying he lost trades to make his team better so maybe he's feeling for Chiarelli right now. Of course, Button was a horrible GM too...soooo...


Does anyone reasonable think that it's good return though? My issue isn't with not liking the trade, it's the level of piling on that's going on that bothers me.

I want to see thoughtful, well constructed arguments about what Larsson is or isn't and what this means for the Oilers. Not bloggers whining that this is the worst trade of the salary cap era, or saying that Larsson is worse than a guy that the Blackhawks put on buyout waivers (David Rundblad), or filler like Yost posted.


There's always going to be a difficulty to analyze what Larsson is outside of the way he has been used. It becomes difficult to project. You're right, Yost doesn't say if it's 4 or 5 or 20 games that he's using as his sample size, and the smaller the sample, the more it can be swayed by one good or bad result.

I had not seen the Rundblad comment.

Personally, having read everything I can about the deal and looking at all the stats I could, I think Larsson is a good defensive defenceman with pretty middling offence. I think he's top 60 in the league at defence, which makes him a top pairing guy.

I think you needed a top 15 guy to make a straight-up trade for Hall worthwhile. I think it's shameful that the Oilers couldn't manage to get anything else but Larsson and that it shows a real lack of management ability, and goes towards confirming that Peter Chiarelli is prone to making moves in a panic and losing deals that way.

I'm fine with this article, because really, it's saying the same thing. He's good at defence, he may not be good at offence. Hall was a big overpay for him. Does anyone really disagree with that? I think there could be clarifications, but that doesn't seem like piling on to me. Just seems accurate. Chiarelli did a bad job. He should be publicly flogged for it.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674719 is a reply to message #674717 ]
Tue, 05 July 2016 11:00 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently offline Adam
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ziltoid wrote on Tue, 05 July 2016 10:52

Goose wrote on Tue, 05 July 2016 10:27

Adam wrote on Tue, 05 July 2016 09:21

I think the point is clear though - he doesn't think Larsson is enough of a return for Taylor Hall.

That seems to be an across the board belief. The guy in the video beside Dreger (is that Button?) is defending the move, but once again he says "Obviously Taylor Hall is the better player". I've heard Button defend his record as GM saying he lost trades to make his team better so maybe he's feeling for Chiarelli right now. Of course, Button was a horrible GM too...soooo...


Does anyone reasonable think that it's good return though? My issue isn't with not liking the trade, it's the level of piling on that's going on that bothers me.

I want to see thoughtful, well constructed arguments about what Larsson is or isn't and what this means for the Oilers. Not bloggers whining that this is the worst trade of the salary cap era, or saying that Larsson is worse than a guy that the Blackhawks put on buyout waivers (David Rundblad), or filler like Yost posted.


I would also like to add in the narrative that you can't give up the best player in the deal and become a better team overall. That one drives me particularly mad.

Watch me do it right now:

I trade the entire Oilers Roster minus Lander to Pittsburg for their entire roster minus Crosby. Pittsburgh gets the best player in McDavid, but the new Oilers team will be better than they were before... unless of course you believe the Oilers current roster is better than the reigning cup champion's roster (or that Malkin is better than McDavid). Hell, you could make the same trade with ANY of the playoff teams (our entire roster minus our worst player for their entire roster minus their best player) and we would STILL be a better team (last I checked, we've been out of the playoffs for a while).

icon_rolleyes

Now, I don't know if we are a better team with Larsson than with Hall -- that will play itself out over the course of the season -- but I do THINK we will be better off with Larsson for a variety of reasons (0% of which surround Hall's character, FYI).


Little easier to suggest you can win while giving up the best player when you get more than a single worse player back (not a bad player, but worse than what you gave up).

I heard them talking on the radio about how we've balanced the defence. We've added a single guy, who's not elite. I don't think it's that much better yet. Our offence will be worse, because we've taken a driver out of the lineup and have added no other driver to replace him.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674720 is a reply to message #674717 ]
Tue, 05 July 2016 11:09 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently offline Kr55
Messages: 9784
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton
6 Cups
ziltoid wrote on Tue, 05 July 2016 10:52

Goose wrote on Tue, 05 July 2016 10:27

Adam wrote on Tue, 05 July 2016 09:21

I think the point is clear though - he doesn't think Larsson is enough of a return for Taylor Hall.

That seems to be an across the board belief. The guy in the video beside Dreger (is that Button?) is defending the move, but once again he says "Obviously Taylor Hall is the better player". I've heard Button defend his record as GM saying he lost trades to make his team better so maybe he's feeling for Chiarelli right now. Of course, Button was a horrible GM too...soooo...


Does anyone reasonable think that it's good return though? My issue isn't with not liking the trade, it's the level of piling on that's going on that bothers me.

I want to see thoughtful, well constructed arguments about what Larsson is or isn't and what this means for the Oilers. Not bloggers whining that this is the worst trade of the salary cap era, or saying that Larsson is worse than a guy that the Blackhawks put on buyout waivers (David Rundblad), or filler like Yost posted.


I would also like to add in the narrative that you can't give up the best player in the deal and become a better team overall. That one drives me particularly mad.

Watch me do it right now:

I trade the entire Oilers Roster minus Lander to Pittsburg for their entire roster minus Crosby. Pittsburgh gets the best player in McDavid, but the new Oilers team will be better than they were before... unless of course you believe the Oilers current roster is better than the reigning cup champion's roster (or that Malkin is better than McDavid). Hell, you could make the same trade with ANY of the playoff teams (our entire roster minus our worst player for their entire roster minus their best player) and we would STILL be a better team (last I checked, we've been out of the playoffs for a while).

icon_rolleyes

Now, I don't know if we are a better team with Larsson than with Hall -- that will play itself out over the course of the season -- but I do THINK we will be better off with Larsson for a variety of reasons (0% of which surround Hall's character, FYI).


THat's a fun concept.

How about if you had 9 Crosby's and your D had 4 Nikitins.

Which team would be better?

Crosby Crosby Crosby
Crosby Crosby Crosby
Crosby Crosby Crosby
Lucic RNH Ebs

Klefbom Nikitin
Sekera Nikitin
Nikitin Nikitin

Or

Crosby Crosby Crosby
Crosby Crosby Ebs
Lucic Crosby Crosby
Pouliot RNH Yak

Klefbom Larsson
Sekera Barrie
Nikitin Nikitin

If you traded 2 of your Crosby's for Larsson and Barrie horribly losing in both deals :)

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674722 is a reply to message #674719 ]
Tue, 05 July 2016 11:12 Go to previous messageGo to next message
ziltoid is currently offline ziltoid
Messages: 150
Registered: January 2011
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Adam wrote on Tue, 05 July 2016 11:00

ziltoid wrote on Tue, 05 July 2016 10:52

Goose wrote on Tue, 05 July 2016 10:27

Adam wrote on Tue, 05 July 2016 09:21

I think the point is clear though - he doesn't think Larsson is enough of a return for Taylor Hall.

That seems to be an across the board belief. The guy in the video beside Dreger (is that Button?) is defending the move, but once again he says "Obviously Taylor Hall is the better player". I've heard Button defend his record as GM saying he lost trades to make his team better so maybe he's feeling for Chiarelli right now. Of course, Button was a horrible GM too...soooo...


Does anyone reasonable think that it's good return though? My issue isn't with not liking the trade, it's the level of piling on that's going on that bothers me.

I want to see thoughtful, well constructed arguments about what Larsson is or isn't and what this means for the Oilers. Not bloggers whining that this is the worst trade of the salary cap era, or saying that Larsson is worse than a guy that the Blackhawks put on buyout waivers (David Rundblad), or filler like Yost posted.


I would also like to add in the narrative that you can't give up the best player in the deal and become a better team overall. That one drives me particularly mad.

Watch me do it right now:

I trade the entire Oilers Roster minus Lander to Pittsburg for their entire roster minus Crosby. Pittsburgh gets the best player in McDavid, but the new Oilers team will be better than they were before... unless of course you believe the Oilers current roster is better than the reigning cup champion's roster (or that Malkin is better than McDavid). Hell, you could make the same trade with ANY of the playoff teams (our entire roster minus our worst player for their entire roster minus their best player) and we would STILL be a better team (last I checked, we've been out of the playoffs for a while).

icon_rolleyes

Now, I don't know if we are a better team with Larsson than with Hall -- that will play itself out over the course of the season -- but I do THINK we will be better off with Larsson for a variety of reasons (0% of which surround Hall's character, FYI).


Little easier to suggest you can win while giving up the best player when you get more than a single worse player back (not a bad player, but worse than what you gave up).

I heard them talking on the radio about how we've balanced the defence. We've added a single guy, who's not elite. I don't think it's that much better yet. Our offence will be worse, because we've taken a driver out of the lineup and have added no other driver to replace him.


And that is where a lot of this comes to a head.

No, Larsson is not an all-around elite d-man like Weber, Doughty, Josi, or the 4-6 other players one could realistically list off as being "elite". But he IS elite at keeping the puck out of the net. No matter how you slice it, Larsson is one of the best in the league at that. In fact, when we break down his numbers, the only thing those other 6-10, truly elite players have that Larsson doesn't is PP production. Hell, Larson's P/60 at evens does not lag far behind Doughty (who is also several years his senior and on a WAY better team with respect to offensive production).

You're right, Chia gave up the best player. Full stop. But you have to look at what was attained/spent and weight it by team strengths and weaknesses. When I sit back and I look at the weighted difference between what we sent out and what we got back, I think we are in the black (but like I said, only time will tell).

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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674723 is a reply to message #674720 ]
Tue, 05 July 2016 11:18 Go to previous messageGo to next message
ziltoid is currently offline ziltoid
Messages: 150
Registered: January 2011
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Kr55 wrote on Tue, 05 July 2016 11:09

ziltoid wrote on Tue, 05 July 2016 10:52

Goose wrote on Tue, 05 July 2016 10:27

Adam wrote on Tue, 05 July 2016 09:21

I think the point is clear though - he doesn't think Larsson is enough of a return for Taylor Hall.

That seems to be an across the board belief. The guy in the video beside Dreger (is that Button?) is defending the move, but once again he says "Obviously Taylor Hall is the better player". I've heard Button defend his record as GM saying he lost trades to make his team better so maybe he's feeling for Chiarelli right now. Of course, Button was a horrible GM too...soooo...


Does anyone reasonable think that it's good return though? My issue isn't with not liking the trade, it's the level of piling on that's going on that bothers me.

I want to see thoughtful, well constructed arguments about what Larsson is or isn't and what this means for the Oilers. Not bloggers whining that this is the worst trade of the salary cap era, or saying that Larsson is worse than a guy that the Blackhawks put on buyout waivers (David Rundblad), or filler like Yost posted.


I would also like to add in the narrative that you can't give up the best player in the deal and become a better team overall. That one drives me particularly mad.

Watch me do it right now:

I trade the entire Oilers Roster minus Lander to Pittsburg for their entire roster minus Crosby. Pittsburgh gets the best player in McDavid, but the new Oilers team will be better than they were before... unless of course you believe the Oilers current roster is better than the reigning cup champion's roster (or that Malkin is better than McDavid). Hell, you could make the same trade with ANY of the playoff teams (our entire roster minus our worst player for their entire roster minus their best player) and we would STILL be a better team (last I checked, we've been out of the playoffs for a while).

icon_rolleyes

Now, I don't know if we are a better team with Larsson than with Hall -- that will play itself out over the course of the season -- but I do THINK we will be better off with Larsson for a variety of reasons (0% of which surround Hall's character, FYI).


THat's a fun concept.

How about if you had 9 Crosby's and your D had 4 Nikitins.

Which team would be better?

Crosby Crosby Crosby
Crosby Crosby Crosby
Crosby Crosby Crosby
Lucic RNH Ebs

Klefbom Nikitin
Sekera Nikitin
Nikitin Nikitin

Or

Crosby Crosby Crosby
Crosby Crosby Ebs
Lucic Crosby Crosby
Pouliot RNH Yak

Klefbom Larsson
Sekera Barrie
Nikitin Nikitin

If you traded 2 of your Crosby's for Larsson and Barrie horribly losing in both deals :)


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_proof#Proof_by_co ntradiction

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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674724 is a reply to message #674722 ]
Tue, 05 July 2016 11:27 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently offline Adam
Messages: 6865
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Location: Edmonton, AB
6 Cups
ziltoid wrote on Tue, 05 July 2016 11:12


And that is where a lot of this comes to a head.

No, Larsson is not an all-around elite d-man like Weber, Doughty, Josi, or the 4-6 other players one could realistically list off as being "elite". But he IS elite at keeping the puck out of the net. No matter how you slice it, Larsson is one of the best in the league at that. In fact, when we break down his numbers, the only thing those other 6-10, truly elite players have that Larsson doesn't is PP production. Hell, Larson's P/60 at evens does not lag far behind Doughty (who is also several years his senior and on a WAY better team with respect to offensive production).

You're right, Chia gave up the best player. Full stop. But you have to look at what was attained/spent and weight it by team strengths and weaknesses. When I sit back and I look at the weighted difference between what we sent out and what we got back, I think we are in the black (but like I said, only time will tell).



I've been saying for months, you can't hope to be successful if every time you patch a hole, you rip another gaping one in your roster.

The Penguins just won a Cup because they could roll three lines based around three different players who could drive the play. They didn't even have a great defence. One really good player and a motley crew of youngsters, has-beens or reclamation projects. Chicago won the year before with two lines built around drivers in Toews and Kane. They have a great supporting cast and better defence than the Penguins, but the key to their attack is that you can't focus your effort entirely on stopping one superstar player.

The Oilers were REALLY fortunate to have two players who could drive the play. They were one of only a handful of teams who could say that. And they dealt that player away in the hopes that Adam Larsson can develop an offensive side to his game to compliment a pretty strong defensive side.

It's a massive, massive risk. This is the kind of trade that gets GMs fired. Mike O'Connell traded Thornton (and at least managed to get back multiple pieces) on December 1, 2005. He was fired on March 25, 2006.

If Larsson falters (and the pressure on him will be intense, given who he was traded for), it will be ugly this year and the Oilers might very well dump Chiarelli next summer. That's how much of a risk this was.

Yes, it's hard to quantify how many goals against a good defender can stop. Yes, he's going to probably play big minutes, and it's likely his usage will be less punishing here than in New Jersey. But for this deal to ever look like a success, he's going to have to be a more effective two-way defender than he's ever actually been, while all Taylor Hall has to do is be the same player he was and he'll be the best guy in a Devils uniform on a team that's been better than the Oilers over the last few years and will quite probably be better than them again this year.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireLowe #FireBobbyNicks #FireKenHolland #FireKeithGretzky

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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674725 is a reply to message #674704 ]
Tue, 05 July 2016 11:39 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently offline RDOilerfan
Messages: 3764
Registered: January 2016
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The supposed big knock on Larsson that everyone seems to be focusing on is he doesn't score enough. So the question I have is how does everyone know he can't score?

He's played on a team that doesn't score much in general. All the stats guys have said the Devils play a style of game that is a "low event style" so they don't generate a lot of scoring or even chances and focus a ton on defense. For some reason, he gets NO pp time. People can rattle off all these stats about pots per game and pts per 60 and whatever the hell else you want to show. But if the team he plays on scores very little, if the majority of forwards he players with aren't overly offensive, if the team plays a style that focuses a lot on defense and they play a style that doesn't generate a lot of offensive chances and he's not given any PP time and he's put into a defensive role, how exactly is Larsson supposed to score?

Everyone that thinks Yak is a top 6 player blames the coaches for Yak not scoring and they use the argument of this linemates not being offensive enough and he's playing the 3rd line and he's not getting put into offensive situations. So if you can make the argument about Yak, why can't it translate to Larsson? If all he gets is defensive zone starts and asked to constantly defend and doesn't get ANY gravy PP time, how can anyone expect offense from him?

People should go look up Hedman's numbers. He didn't score much at all for the fist 258 games of his career.

[Updated on: Tue, 05 July 2016 11:44]

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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674726 is a reply to message #674724 ]
Tue, 05 July 2016 11:43 Go to previous messageGo to next message
ziltoid is currently offline ziltoid
Messages: 150
Registered: January 2011
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Adam wrote on Tue, 05 July 2016 11:27

ziltoid wrote on Tue, 05 July 2016 11:12


And that is where a lot of this comes to a head.

No, Larsson is not an all-around elite d-man like Weber, Doughty, Josi, or the 4-6 other players one could realistically list off as being "elite". But he IS elite at keeping the puck out of the net. No matter how you slice it, Larsson is one of the best in the league at that. In fact, when we break down his numbers, the only thing those other 6-10, truly elite players have that Larsson doesn't is PP production. Hell, Larson's P/60 at evens does not lag far behind Doughty (who is also several years his senior and on a WAY better team with respect to offensive production).

You're right, Chia gave up the best player. Full stop. But you have to look at what was attained/spent and weight it by team strengths and weaknesses. When I sit back and I look at the weighted difference between what we sent out and what we got back, I think we are in the black (but like I said, only time will tell).



But for this deal to ever look like a success, he's going to have to be a more effective two-way defender than he's ever actually been, while all Taylor Hall has to do is be the same player he was


No trade can be viewed as good or bad from solely the perspective of each player's production, but needs to be considered within the context of each team as a whole. It is nice to look at trades re: stat lines, but hockey is a very complex system and the attenuating and accentuating effects of multi-player interactions on the team's overall production needs to overrule player vs. player analysis.

From where I'm standing, all Larsson needs to do to make this trade a wash is exactly what he did in Nj: keep the puck out of the next and make good zone exits. If he develops some more scoring then this trade starts to look like a win.

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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674727 is a reply to message #674724 ]
Tue, 05 July 2016 11:44 Go to previous messageGo to next message
benv is currently offline benv
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Adam wrote on Tue, 05 July 2016 11:27



If Larsson falters (and the pressure on him will be intense, given who he was traded for), it will be ugly this year and the Oilers might very well dump Chiarelli next summer. That's how much of a risk this was.





That would look really bad at the 2017 (or 2018) draft when the Oilers would have to give up a 2nd round pick for a GM that's already been fired by them.

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 Re: Oilers Trade Hall to Devils for Larsson [message #674728 is a reply to message #674727 ]
Tue, 05 July 2016 11:57 Go to previous messageGo to previous message
CrusaderPi is currently offline CrusaderPi
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benv wrote on Tue, 05 July 2016 11:44

Adam wrote on Tue, 05 July 2016 11:27



If Larsson falters (and the pressure on him will be intense, given who he was traded for), it will be ugly this year and the Oilers might very well dump Chiarelli next summer. That's how much of a risk this was.





That would look really bad at the 2017 (or 2018) draft when the Oilers would have to give up a 2nd round pick for a GM that's already been fired by them.

That wouldn't happen simply because it would make the existing management core look so incompetent. Somehow losing for 10 years doesn't do this, but that's not my business.

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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