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 Oilers » Nurse extended 2 years @ 5.6AAVPages (2): [ «  <  1  2]
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 Re: Nurse extended 2 years [message #754127 is a reply to message #754123 ]
Mon, 10 February 2020 17:54 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Oscargasm is currently offline Oscargasm
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Gator21 wrote on Mon, 10 February 2020 18:40

Adam wrote on Mon, 10 February 2020 12:40

JPro wrote on Mon, 10 February 2020 12:35

The more I think about it, the more I really like the deal. I like to put it in terms of regret management. What situation has the most chance to occur?:

1. Signing him to an 8 year deal at $7M now and him not living up to it after a few years. Screwing with our ability to build a winning team.

2. Signing him to a shorter, cheaper deal now followed by him lighting the league up in points to the extent that he is worth over $7M in 2022 and we have to replace him.

I doubt #2 happens. Lets take the savings now and go for a run at a deep playoff push while we have him cheap. If he becomes too expensive in 2022, we'll be fine with the prospect pool. If we sign him long term now and he drops off in two years, it'll be regret city. Which has been the Oiler M.O. for the last decade


I like the deal and I DO think he'll be likely to attract a $7MM+ deal after two years. He'll be 27, physical, a great skater and likely posting 30-40 points in each of the last 4 seasons despite minimal PP time. While his passing isn't great, and he's getting some McDavid bump on his numbers, that's still a valuable resource where if he reaches UFA, he'll get paid big by someone - who will likely even give him term.

It does give us two more years to decide if that should be us though...and that's where I see the greatest value. Well, that and the cap room over the next couple of years.


Exactly why this is a HORRENDOUS deal. You're walking one of your best assets right to free agency and could lose him for nothing. If all the cap savings you're gonna get is $600k by doing a short term deal then why not just go long term like the Morrisey contract and lock up a core member for the long haul at a somewhat reasonable dollar amount.

Very stupid contract, guarantee the Oilers will be paying Darnell north of $7mil on the next deal with term for a dman who is not worth nearly that much. The fact that anybody can look at this deal and not see it for the colossal failure that it is is astonishing to me



I said it before and I’ll say it again. I strongly believe Darnell and his camp were not going to accept a Morrisey AAV on a long term deal but would do closer to Trouba which is where the Oilers drew the line resulting in both sides agreeing to this 2 year deal with a smaller AAV. They’ll have plenty of time to discuss an extension from there and if the Oilers DONT like the direction again they either have a chance to sell him at the deadline (if they’re out of it) or at the draft at the end of this 2 year deal.

I’m a fan.

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 Re: Nurse extended 2 years [message #754129 is a reply to message #754127 ]
Mon, 10 February 2020 18:01 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently offline Adam
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Oscargasm wrote on Mon, 10 February 2020 17:54

Gator21 wrote on Mon, 10 February 2020 18:40

Adam wrote on Mon, 10 February 2020 12:40

JPro wrote on Mon, 10 February 2020 12:35

The more I think about it, the more I really like the deal. I like to put it in terms of regret management. What situation has the most chance to occur?:

1. Signing him to an 8 year deal at $7M now and him not living up to it after a few years. Screwing with our ability to build a winning team.

2. Signing him to a shorter, cheaper deal now followed by him lighting the league up in points to the extent that he is worth over $7M in 2022 and we have to replace him.

I doubt #2 happens. Lets take the savings now and go for a run at a deep playoff push while we have him cheap. If he becomes too expensive in 2022, we'll be fine with the prospect pool. If we sign him long term now and he drops off in two years, it'll be regret city. Which has been the Oiler M.O. for the last decade


I like the deal and I DO think he'll be likely to attract a $7MM+ deal after two years. He'll be 27, physical, a great skater and likely posting 30-40 points in each of the last 4 seasons despite minimal PP time. While his passing isn't great, and he's getting some McDavid bump on his numbers, that's still a valuable resource where if he reaches UFA, he'll get paid big by someone - who will likely even give him term.

It does give us two more years to decide if that should be us though...and that's where I see the greatest value. Well, that and the cap room over the next couple of years.


Exactly why this is a HORRENDOUS deal. You're walking one of your best assets right to free agency and could lose him for nothing. If all the cap savings you're gonna get is $600k by doing a short term deal then why not just go long term like the Morrisey contract and lock up a core member for the long haul at a somewhat reasonable dollar amount.

Very stupid contract, guarantee the Oilers will be paying Darnell north of $7mil on the next deal with term for a dman who is not worth nearly that much. The fact that anybody can look at this deal and not see it for the colossal failure that it is is astonishing to me



I said it before and I’ll say it again. I strongly believe Darnell and his camp were not going to accept a Morrisey AAV on a long term deal but would do closer to Trouba which is where the Oilers drew the line resulting in both sides agreeing to this 2 year deal with a smaller AAV. They’ll have plenty of time to discuss an extension from there and if the Oilers DONT like the direction again they either have a chance to sell him at the deadline (if they’re out of it) or at the draft at the end of this 2 year deal.

I’m a fan.


Exactly. I think if it was $5.5MM for 2 years of $6.0MM for 5 years, then of course the Oilers take the longer deal. I don't for a second believe that Nurse's camp wanted that - and I think both team and player are probably right here.

The Oilers needed the cap room more in the next couple of years, and Nurse wants to maximize his career earnings and felt UFA at age 27 is probably the best way to accomplish that. No issues with either side there.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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 Re: Nurse extended 2 years [message #754131 is a reply to message #754123 ]
Mon, 10 February 2020 18:35 Go to previous messageGo to next message
PlusOne is currently online PlusOne
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Gator21 wrote on Mon, 10 February 2020 18:40

Adam wrote on Mon, 10 February 2020 12:40

JPro wrote on Mon, 10 February 2020 12:35

The more I think about it, the more I really like the deal. I like to put it in terms of regret management. What situation has the most chance to occur?:

1. Signing him to an 8 year deal at $7M now and him not living up to it after a few years. Screwing with our ability to build a winning team.

2. Signing him to a shorter, cheaper deal now followed by him lighting the league up in points to the extent that he is worth over $7M in 2022 and we have to replace him.

I doubt #2 happens. Lets take the savings now and go for a run at a deep playoff push while we have him cheap. If he becomes too expensive in 2022, we'll be fine with the prospect pool. If we sign him long term now and he drops off in two years, it'll be regret city. Which has been the Oiler M.O. for the last decade


I like the deal and I DO think he'll be likely to attract a $7MM+ deal after two years. He'll be 27, physical, a great skater and likely posting 30-40 points in each of the last 4 seasons despite minimal PP time. While his passing isn't great, and he's getting some McDavid bump on his numbers, that's still a valuable resource where if he reaches UFA, he'll get paid big by someone - who will likely even give him term.

It does give us two more years to decide if that should be us though...and that's where I see the greatest value. Well, that and the cap room over the next couple of years.


Exactly why this is a HORRENDOUS deal. You're walking one of your best assets right to free agency and could lose him for nothing. If all the cap savings you're gonna get is $600k by doing a short term deal then why not just go long term like the Morrisey contract and lock up a core member for the long haul at a somewhat reasonable dollar amount.

Very stupid contract, guarantee the Oilers will be paying Darnell north of $7mil on the next deal with term for a dman who is not worth nearly that much. The fact that anybody can look at this deal and not see it for the colossal failure that it is is astonishing to me



Your anger seems to stem from an assumption that if Holland crossed out Morrisey's name and added Nurse's it would have been signed on the spot. From everything we have been led to believe that isnt what Nurse is willing to do.
The market can set what a player is worth and a player or team can disagree with that. I am 100% sure that if Nurse was an FA right now some team would pay 7mill plus. This means that at the VERY least the Oilers are getting two years of Nurse cheaper than the likely market rate.
The other fact is that unless Nurse WAS willing to sign long term at well below market value the Oilers couldnt offer that. The cap situation is so F'd by Chia that they are handcuffed. This contract does seem like the best option (assuming trading him this offseason wasnt considered) given the ask of Nurse and the options the Oilers have.

This leaves us with four options;
- like the deal regardless of other factors
- like the deal within the circumstances the Oilers are in
- dont like the deal, be mad at Darnell for wanting more
- dont like the deal, be mad at previous management for putting the team in this bind.

I am sure there are others but being mad at Holland for a bad deal seems misguided or willfully blind.

Survivor LX(I) and 67 Champ(i)on


CrusaderPi wrote on Thu, 30 January 2020 12:21

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 Re: Nurse extended 2 years [message #754132 is a reply to message #754131 ]
Mon, 10 February 2020 18:52 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Oscargasm is currently offline Oscargasm
Messages: 5911
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PlusOne wrote on Mon, 10 February 2020 19:35

Gator21 wrote on Mon, 10 February 2020 18:40

Adam wrote on Mon, 10 February 2020 12:40

JPro wrote on Mon, 10 February 2020 12:35

The more I think about it, the more I really like the deal. I like to put it in terms of regret management. What situation has the most chance to occur?:

1. Signing him to an 8 year deal at $7M now and him not living up to it after a few years. Screwing with our ability to build a winning team.

2. Signing him to a shorter, cheaper deal now followed by him lighting the league up in points to the extent that he is worth over $7M in 2022 and we have to replace him.

I doubt #2 happens. Lets take the savings now and go for a run at a deep playoff push while we have him cheap. If he becomes too expensive in 2022, we'll be fine with the prospect pool. If we sign him long term now and he drops off in two years, it'll be regret city. Which has been the Oiler M.O. for the last decade


I like the deal and I DO think he'll be likely to attract a $7MM+ deal after two years. He'll be 27, physical, a great skater and likely posting 30-40 points in each of the last 4 seasons despite minimal PP time. While his passing isn't great, and he's getting some McDavid bump on his numbers, that's still a valuable resource where if he reaches UFA, he'll get paid big by someone - who will likely even give him term.

It does give us two more years to decide if that should be us though...and that's where I see the greatest value. Well, that and the cap room over the next couple of years.


Exactly why this is a HORRENDOUS deal. You're walking one of your best assets right to free agency and could lose him for nothing. If all the cap savings you're gonna get is $600k by doing a short term deal then why not just go long term like the Morrisey contract and lock up a core member for the long haul at a somewhat reasonable dollar amount.

Very stupid contract, guarantee the Oilers will be paying Darnell north of $7mil on the next deal with term for a dman who is not worth nearly that much. The fact that anybody can look at this deal and not see it for the colossal failure that it is is astonishing to me



Your anger seems to stem from an assumption that if Holland crossed out Morrisey's name and added Nurse's it would have been signed on the spot. From everything we have been led to believe that isnt what Nurse is willing to do.
The market can set what a player is worth and a player or team can disagree with that. I am 100% sure that if Nurse was an FA right now some team would pay 7mill plus. This means that at the VERY least the Oilers are getting two years of Nurse cheaper than the likely market rate.
The other fact is that unless Nurse WAS willing to sign long term at well below market value the Oilers couldnt offer that. The cap situation is so F'd by Chia that they are handcuffed. This contract does seem like the best option (assuming trading him this offseason wasnt considered) given the ask of Nurse and the options the Oilers have.

This leaves us with four options;
- like the deal regardless of other factors
- like the deal within the circumstances the Oilers are in
- dont like the deal, be mad at Darnell for wanting more
- dont like the deal, be mad at previous management for putting the team in this bind.

I am sure there are others but being mad at Holland for a bad deal seems misguided or willfully blind.



I’m mad at Holland for my being drafted by the Buffalo Sabres in my latest Be a Pro on NHL 20.

Survivor CHAMP S52 | S66
OG's #MUSTWIN Scale
Category 1 - Lightly Musty
Category 2 - Moderately Musty
Category 3 - Considerably Musty
Category 4 - Severely Musty
Category 5 - Incredibly Musty

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 Re: Nurse extended 2 years [message #754133 is a reply to message #754131 ]
Mon, 10 February 2020 18:54 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Gator21 is currently offline Gator21
Messages: 173
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PlusOne wrote on Mon, 10 February 2020 18:35

Gator21 wrote on Mon, 10 February 2020 18:40

Adam wrote on Mon, 10 February 2020 12:40

JPro wrote on Mon, 10 February 2020 12:35

The more I think about it, the more I really like the deal. I like to put it in terms of regret management. What situation has the most chance to occur?:

1. Signing him to an 8 year deal at $7M now and him not living up to it after a few years. Screwing with our ability to build a winning team.

2. Signing him to a shorter, cheaper deal now followed by him lighting the league up in points to the extent that he is worth over $7M in 2022 and we have to replace him.

I doubt #2 happens. Lets take the savings now and go for a run at a deep playoff push while we have him cheap. If he becomes too expensive in 2022, we'll be fine with the prospect pool. If we sign him long term now and he drops off in two years, it'll be regret city. Which has been the Oiler M.O. for the last decade


I like the deal and I DO think he'll be likely to attract a $7MM+ deal after two years. He'll be 27, physical, a great skater and likely posting 30-40 points in each of the last 4 seasons despite minimal PP time. While his passing isn't great, and he's getting some McDavid bump on his numbers, that's still a valuable resource where if he reaches UFA, he'll get paid big by someone - who will likely even give him term.

It does give us two more years to decide if that should be us though...and that's where I see the greatest value. Well, that and the cap room over the next couple of years.


Exactly why this is a HORRENDOUS deal. You're walking one of your best assets right to free agency and could lose him for nothing. If all the cap savings you're gonna get is $600k by doing a short term deal then why not just go long term like the Morrisey contract and lock up a core member for the long haul at a somewhat reasonable dollar amount.

Very stupid contract, guarantee the Oilers will be paying Darnell north of $7mil on the next deal with term for a dman who is not worth nearly that much. The fact that anybody can look at this deal and not see it for the colossal failure that it is is astonishing to me



Your anger seems to stem from an assumption that if Holland crossed out Morrisey's name and added Nurse's it would have been signed on the spot. From everything we have been led to believe that isnt what Nurse is willing to do.
The market can set what a player is worth and a player or team can disagree with that. I am 100% sure that if Nurse was an FA right now some team would pay 7mill plus. This means that at the VERY least the Oilers are getting two years of Nurse cheaper than the likely market rate.
The other fact is that unless Nurse WAS willing to sign long term at well below market value the Oilers couldnt offer that. The cap situation is so F'd by Chia that they are handcuffed. This contract does seem like the best option (assuming trading him this offseason wasnt considered) given the ask of Nurse and the options the Oilers have.

This leaves us with four options;
- like the deal regardless of other factors
- like the deal within the circumstances the Oilers are in
- dont like the deal, be mad at Darnell for wanting more
- dont like the deal, be mad at previous management for putting the team in this bind.

I am sure there are others but being mad at Holland for a bad deal seems misguided or willfully blind.



Well below market value? Haha the market was literally set 5 months ago when Morrisey signed his contract. Nurse can ask for Trouba money all he wants, he's not getting it...simple as that. If Nurse wants to be an Oiler long term why wouldn't he sign a contract with his EXACT comparable. It's not like the Morrisey contract was signed a couple years ago either. If I'm Holland I'm saying either take the same deal or we'll see you in arbitration. Sometimes a GM needs to have backbone in negotiations and not just bend over. Walking one your best assets to free agency to save $600K in cap space for 2 years is beyond stupid

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 Re: Nurse extended 2 years [message #754134 is a reply to message #754133 ]
Mon, 10 February 2020 19:04 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Oscargasm is currently offline Oscargasm
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Gator21 wrote on Mon, 10 February 2020 19:54

PlusOne wrote on Mon, 10 February 2020 18:35

Gator21 wrote on Mon, 10 February 2020 18:40

Adam wrote on Mon, 10 February 2020 12:40

JPro wrote on Mon, 10 February 2020 12:35

The more I think about it, the more I really like the deal. I like to put it in terms of regret management. What situation has the most chance to occur?:

1. Signing him to an 8 year deal at $7M now and him not living up to it after a few years. Screwing with our ability to build a winning team.

2. Signing him to a shorter, cheaper deal now followed by him lighting the league up in points to the extent that he is worth over $7M in 2022 and we have to replace him.

I doubt #2 happens. Lets take the savings now and go for a run at a deep playoff push while we have him cheap. If he becomes too expensive in 2022, we'll be fine with the prospect pool. If we sign him long term now and he drops off in two years, it'll be regret city. Which has been the Oiler M.O. for the last decade


I like the deal and I DO think he'll be likely to attract a $7MM+ deal after two years. He'll be 27, physical, a great skater and likely posting 30-40 points in each of the last 4 seasons despite minimal PP time. While his passing isn't great, and he's getting some McDavid bump on his numbers, that's still a valuable resource where if he reaches UFA, he'll get paid big by someone - who will likely even give him term.

It does give us two more years to decide if that should be us though...and that's where I see the greatest value. Well, that and the cap room over the next couple of years.


Exactly why this is a HORRENDOUS deal. You're walking one of your best assets right to free agency and could lose him for nothing. If all the cap savings you're gonna get is $600k by doing a short term deal then why not just go long term like the Morrisey contract and lock up a core member for the long haul at a somewhat reasonable dollar amount.

Very stupid contract, guarantee the Oilers will be paying Darnell north of $7mil on the next deal with term for a dman who is not worth nearly that much. The fact that anybody can look at this deal and not see it for the colossal failure that it is is astonishing to me



Your anger seems to stem from an assumption that if Holland crossed out Morrisey's name and added Nurse's it would have been signed on the spot. From everything we have been led to believe that isnt what Nurse is willing to do.
The market can set what a player is worth and a player or team can disagree with that. I am 100% sure that if Nurse was an FA right now some team would pay 7mill plus. This means that at the VERY least the Oilers are getting two years of Nurse cheaper than the likely market rate.
The other fact is that unless Nurse WAS willing to sign long term at well below market value the Oilers couldnt offer that. The cap situation is so F'd by Chia that they are handcuffed. This contract does seem like the best option (assuming trading him this offseason wasnt considered) given the ask of Nurse and the options the Oilers have.

This leaves us with four options;
- like the deal regardless of other factors
- like the deal within the circumstances the Oilers are in
- dont like the deal, be mad at Darnell for wanting more
- dont like the deal, be mad at previous management for putting the team in this bind.

I am sure there are others but being mad at Holland for a bad deal seems misguided or willfully blind.



Well below market value? Haha the market was literally set 5 months ago when Morrisey signed his contract. Nurse can ask for Trouba money all he wants, he's not getting it...simple as that. If Nurse wants to be an Oiler long term why wouldn't he sign a contract with his EXACT comparable. It's not like the Morrisey contract was signed a couple years ago either. If I'm Holland I'm saying either take the same deal or we'll see you in arbitration. Sometimes a GM needs to have backbone in negotiations and not just bend over. Walking one your best assets to free agency to save $600K in cap space for 2 years is beyond stupid


I guess we agree to disagree then.

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Category 3 - Considerably Musty
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Category 5 - Incredibly Musty

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 Re: Nurse extended 2 years [message #754135 is a reply to message #754134 ]
Mon, 10 February 2020 19:39 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Gator21 is currently offline Gator21
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Honestly I'm never overly passionate about most contracts/topics on this site but this is the hill I'm willing to die on. I think it's that bad of a play for the Oilers and will come back to haunt them long term

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 Re: Nurse extended 2 years [message #754139 is a reply to message #754135 ]
Mon, 10 February 2020 21:53 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently offline Adam
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Gator21 wrote on Mon, 10 February 2020 19:39

Honestly I'm never overly passionate about most contracts/topics on this site but this is the hill I'm willing to die on. I think it's that bad of a play for the Oilers and will come back to haunt them long term


Just out of interest though - assuming Nurse didn't want the Morrissey contract, at what terms were you willing to go up to to sign him long-term, and how cheap did it have to be short-term before you'd think it was worthwhile choosing that option?

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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 Re: Nurse extended 2 years [message #754143 is a reply to message #754139 ]
Mon, 10 February 2020 23:18 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Gator21 is currently offline Gator21
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Adam wrote on Mon, 10 February 2020 21:53

Gator21 wrote on Mon, 10 February 2020 19:39

Honestly I'm never overly passionate about most contracts/topics on this site but this is the hill I'm willing to die on. I think it's that bad of a play for the Oilers and will come back to haunt them long term


Just out of interest though - assuming Nurse didn't want the Morrissey contract, at what terms were you willing to go up to to sign him long-term, and how cheap did it have to be short-term before you'd think it was worthwhile choosing that option?


I don’t care what Nurse wants, I care about what is best for the Edmonton Oilers and what the real comparable are. I wouldn’t give him anything more than what Morrisey signed because for what he brings to the table he’d already be overpaid. Short term I wouldn’t I wouldn’t go more than $4.5 over 2 years if I’m going to walk you to free agency

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 Re: Nurse extended 2 years [message #754138 is a reply to message #754133 ]
Mon, 10 February 2020 21:52 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently offline Adam
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Gator21 wrote on Mon, 10 February 2020 18:54


Well below market value? Haha the market was literally set 5 months ago when Morrisey signed his contract. Nurse can ask for Trouba money all he wants, he's not getting it...simple as that. If Nurse wants to be an Oiler long term why wouldn't he sign a contract with his EXACT comparable. It's not like the Morrisey contract was signed a couple years ago either. If I'm Holland I'm saying either take the same deal or we'll see you in arbitration. Sometimes a GM needs to have backbone in negotiations and not just bend over. Walking one your best assets to free agency to save $600K in cap space for 2 years is beyond stupid


The issue with going to arbitration is that best case it gets you to this spot. There's no long-term deals with arbitration, you can simply choose a one-year or two-year deal and you have to go make cases against each other - which can lead to lingering bad feelings.

If we took Nurse to arbitration, he could use Morrissey as his comparable, and might be given $6MM+ in the hearing and we'd still only have him for two years ahead of him turning UFA - possibly with a chip on his shoulder over the treatment in the hearing.

Nurse also may not feel Morrissey is as good a comparable as you do. Nurse's peak season was last year when he scored 41 points. Morrissey also had his best production yet last year - at 31 points. Morrissey is smaller, less physical, doesn't fight. Their production this year is almost identical, but still - there's an argument that Nurse's camp could make that he does more - especially since Morrissey is getting PP time in Winnipeg this year and has 10 PP points, and Nurse, who's only getting second unit time, has just 3 PP points. Morrissey has 1:56 PP TOI per game to just 0:50 for Nurse while Nurse kills penalties much more (1:55 per game to 1:05).

I don't think I'm known for giving management a free pass on these things, but honestly, I think this is the best case scenario we could have hoped for with Nurse. We weren't getting him long-term without paying a premium - something we can't really afford in the next couple of years. It's extremely unlikely we'd have gotten him for anything less than this, even in arbitration.





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 Re: Nurse extended 2 years [message #754153 is a reply to message #754133 ]
Tue, 11 February 2020 08:31 Go to previous messageGo to next message
PlusOne is currently online PlusOne
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Gator21 wrote on Mon, 10 February 2020 19:54

PlusOne wrote on Mon, 10 February 2020 18:35

Gator21 wrote on Mon, 10 February 2020 18:40

Adam wrote on Mon, 10 February 2020 12:40

JPro wrote on Mon, 10 February 2020 12:35

The more I think about it, the more I really like the deal. I like to put it in terms of regret management. What situation has the most chance to occur?:

1. Signing him to an 8 year deal at $7M now and him not living up to it after a few years. Screwing with our ability to build a winning team.

2. Signing him to a shorter, cheaper deal now followed by him lighting the league up in points to the extent that he is worth over $7M in 2022 and we have to replace him.

I doubt #2 happens. Lets take the savings now and go for a run at a deep playoff push while we have him cheap. If he becomes too expensive in 2022, we'll be fine with the prospect pool. If we sign him long term now and he drops off in two years, it'll be regret city. Which has been the Oiler M.O. for the last decade


I like the deal and I DO think he'll be likely to attract a $7MM+ deal after two years. He'll be 27, physical, a great skater and likely posting 30-40 points in each of the last 4 seasons despite minimal PP time. While his passing isn't great, and he's getting some McDavid bump on his numbers, that's still a valuable resource where if he reaches UFA, he'll get paid big by someone - who will likely even give him term.

It does give us two more years to decide if that should be us though...and that's where I see the greatest value. Well, that and the cap room over the next couple of years.


Exactly why this is a HORRENDOUS deal. You're walking one of your best assets right to free agency and could lose him for nothing. If all the cap savings you're gonna get is $600k by doing a short term deal then why not just go long term like the Morrisey contract and lock up a core member for the long haul at a somewhat reasonable dollar amount.

Very stupid contract, guarantee the Oilers will be paying Darnell north of $7mil on the next deal with term for a dman who is not worth nearly that much. The fact that anybody can look at this deal and not see it for the colossal failure that it is is astonishing to me



Your anger seems to stem from an assumption that if Holland crossed out Morrisey's name and added Nurse's it would have been signed on the spot. From everything we have been led to believe that isnt what Nurse is willing to do.
The market can set what a player is worth and a player or team can disagree with that. I am 100% sure that if Nurse was an FA right now some team would pay 7mill plus. This means that at the VERY least the Oilers are getting two years of Nurse cheaper than the likely market rate.
The other fact is that unless Nurse WAS willing to sign long term at well below market value the Oilers couldnt offer that. The cap situation is so F'd by Chia that they are handcuffed. This contract does seem like the best option (assuming trading him this offseason wasnt considered) given the ask of Nurse and the options the Oilers have.

This leaves us with four options;
- like the deal regardless of other factors
- like the deal within the circumstances the Oilers are in
- dont like the deal, be mad at Darnell for wanting more
- dont like the deal, be mad at previous management for putting the team in this bind.

I am sure there are others but being mad at Holland for a bad deal seems misguided or willfully blind.



Well below market value? Haha the market was literally set 5 months ago when Morrisey signed his contract. Nurse can ask for Trouba money all he wants, he's not getting it...simple as that. If Nurse wants to be an Oiler long term why wouldn't he sign a contract with his EXACT comparable. It's not like the Morrisey contract was signed a couple years ago either. If I'm Holland I'm saying either take the same deal or we'll see you in arbitration. Sometimes a GM needs to have backbone in negotiations and not just bend over. Walking one your best assets to free agency to save $600K in cap space for 2 years is beyond stupid


Again, you are assuming that Nurse agrees that is his value and that no one else in the league would pay more.
We know that Nurse doesnt agree but dont about the rest of the league. That said, I am 90% sure that if Nurse was an FA he would get well over Morrisey. You continue to drop this 600K like it is fact and it simply isnt. Even if they went to arbitration the agent would bring in a long list of reasons that isnt perfect (even if it is) and higher paid, worse, players as his comparables. Now the Oilers get to list all the reasons Nurse isnt worth it? sounds like a great way to end the relationship poorly once that contract is over. At least with this contract there is a chance the Oilers can keep him after.


I do respect your opinion though as there is risk to this deal. One of the reasons I am ok with it is that I absolutely hate arbitration. It almost never ends well, and one of the side ends up super bitter while the other side is only kind of bitter.

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 Re: Nurse extended 2 years [message #754156 is a reply to message #754153 ]
Tue, 11 February 2020 09:16 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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PlusOne wrote on Tue, 11 February 2020 07:31


Again, you are assuming that Nurse agrees that is his value and that no one else in the league would pay more.
We know that Nurse doesnt agree but dont about the rest of the league. That said, I am 90% sure that if Nurse was an FA he would get well over Morrisey. You continue to drop this 600K like it is fact and it simply isnt. Even if they went to arbitration the agent would bring in a long list of reasons that isnt perfect (even if it is) and higher paid, worse, players as his comparables. Now the Oilers get to list all the reasons Nurse isnt worth it? sounds like a great way to end the relationship poorly once that contract is over. At least with this contract there is a chance the Oilers can keep him after.


I do respect your opinion though as there is risk to this deal. One of the reasons I am ok with it is that I absolutely hate arbitration. It almost never ends well, and one of the side ends up super bitter while the other side is only kind of bitter.


I agree with Gator here, I think signing Nurse to a deal that's full value and takes him right up to UFA is crazy. People keep using Morrissey as a comparable, and that's fine if you want to talk about a long term deal, but they bought 6 UFA years with Morrissey, the Oilers got 0. A better comparable, imo, would be a contract like Werenski's that only buys RFA years. 3 years at $5M per for a guy that I think is a better player than Nurse today. And he still has a year of RFA once this contract expires. If Nurse wanted to only sign for 2 years than it should have been in the $4.5M range and if he doesn't than I would have taken him to arbitration.

Unless the Oilers plan on immediately trading Nurse, I dont understand how this makes any sense.

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 Re: Nurse extended 2 years [message #754157 is a reply to message #754156 ]
Tue, 11 February 2020 09:25 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently offline Kr55
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Goose wrote on Tue, 11 February 2020 09:16

PlusOne wrote on Tue, 11 February 2020 07:31


Again, you are assuming that Nurse agrees that is his value and that no one else in the league would pay more.
We know that Nurse doesnt agree but dont about the rest of the league. That said, I am 90% sure that if Nurse was an FA he would get well over Morrisey. You continue to drop this 600K like it is fact and it simply isnt. Even if they went to arbitration the agent would bring in a long list of reasons that isnt perfect (even if it is) and higher paid, worse, players as his comparables. Now the Oilers get to list all the reasons Nurse isnt worth it? sounds like a great way to end the relationship poorly once that contract is over. At least with this contract there is a chance the Oilers can keep him after.


I do respect your opinion though as there is risk to this deal. One of the reasons I am ok with it is that I absolutely hate arbitration. It almost never ends well, and one of the side ends up super bitter while the other side is only kind of bitter.


I agree with Gator here, I think signing Nurse to a deal that's full value and takes him right up to UFA is crazy. People keep using Morrissey as a comparable, and that's fine if you want to talk about a long term deal, but they bought 6 UFA years with Morrissey, the Oilers got 0. A better comparable, imo, would be a contract like Werenski's that only buys RFA years. 3 years at $5M per for a guy that I think is a better player than Nurse today. And he still has a year of RFA once this contract expires. If Nurse wanted to only sign for 2 years than it should have been in the $4.5M range and if he doesn't than I would have taken him to arbitration.

Unless the Oilers plan on immediately trading Nurse, I dont understand how this makes any sense.


I'm thinking ~5M is where Nurse would end up with arbitration. And the Oilers may decide to make it 2 years. Then for sure he's done here, because you have to insult the player and argue why he's only worth the 3.5M you present to the arbitrator after Nurse's camp says 7.5M, hehe.

Actually, arbiration usually always just goes to the middle of both sides doesn't it? If Nurse says 7.5M, I guess we have to offer 2.5M :)

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 Re: Nurse extended 2 years [message #754158 is a reply to message #754157 ]
Tue, 11 February 2020 10:10 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Goose is currently offline Goose
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Kr55 wrote on Tue, 11 February 2020 08:25

Goose wrote on Tue, 11 February 2020 09:16

PlusOne wrote on Tue, 11 February 2020 07:31


Again, you are assuming that Nurse agrees that is his value and that no one else in the league would pay more.
We know that Nurse doesnt agree but dont about the rest of the league. That said, I am 90% sure that if Nurse was an FA he would get well over Morrisey. You continue to drop this 600K like it is fact and it simply isnt. Even if they went to arbitration the agent would bring in a long list of reasons that isnt perfect (even if it is) and higher paid, worse, players as his comparables. Now the Oilers get to list all the reasons Nurse isnt worth it? sounds like a great way to end the relationship poorly once that contract is over. At least with this contract there is a chance the Oilers can keep him after.


I do respect your opinion though as there is risk to this deal. One of the reasons I am ok with it is that I absolutely hate arbitration. It almost never ends well, and one of the side ends up super bitter while the other side is only kind of bitter.


I agree with Gator here, I think signing Nurse to a deal that's full value and takes him right up to UFA is crazy. People keep using Morrissey as a comparable, and that's fine if you want to talk about a long term deal, but they bought 6 UFA years with Morrissey, the Oilers got 0. A better comparable, imo, would be a contract like Werenski's that only buys RFA years. 3 years at $5M per for a guy that I think is a better player than Nurse today. And he still has a year of RFA once this contract expires. If Nurse wanted to only sign for 2 years than it should have been in the $4.5M range and if he doesn't than I would have taken him to arbitration.

Unless the Oilers plan on immediately trading Nurse, I dont understand how this makes any sense.


I'm thinking ~5M is where Nurse would end up with arbitration. And the Oilers may decide to make it 2 years. Then for sure he's done here, because you have to insult the player and argue why he's only worth the 3.5M you present to the arbitrator after Nurse's camp says 7.5M, hehe.

Actually, arbiration usually always just goes to the middle of both sides doesn't it? If Nurse says 7.5M, I guess we have to offer 2.5M :)


What's the alternative? Pay him $8M on a long term deal in 2 years? That's crazy. I guess what's bothering me about this is that all the signaling seems to be indicating to me that that is what they intend to do. If he was willing to sign for around $7M long-term, then why not do it now when you can include these 2 rfa years and maybe bring the cap hit in at slightly below $7M.

There's no reason to sign this deal today if you think you can make that happen. But if you think Nurse wants $8M+ and you dont think he's going to move off that number, then you sign this deal now to keep him happy and in 2 years when the cap has gone up and you've cleared out some dead space then you pay him what he wants.

And if you think he's going to get $8M but you aren't willing to go that high then you might as well bargain hard now to get him as cheap as possible for 2 years, because he won't be here after that anyways.

Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
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 Re: Nurse extended 2 years [message #754173 is a reply to message #754158 ]
Tue, 11 February 2020 10:33 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently offline Adam
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Goose wrote on Tue, 11 February 2020 10:10

Kr55 wrote on Tue, 11 February 2020 08:25

Goose wrote on Tue, 11 February 2020 09:16

PlusOne wrote on Tue, 11 February 2020 07:31


Again, you are assuming that Nurse agrees that is his value and that no one else in the league would pay more.
We know that Nurse doesnt agree but dont about the rest of the league. That said, I am 90% sure that if Nurse was an FA he would get well over Morrisey. You continue to drop this 600K like it is fact and it simply isnt. Even if they went to arbitration the agent would bring in a long list of reasons that isnt perfect (even if it is) and higher paid, worse, players as his comparables. Now the Oilers get to list all the reasons Nurse isnt worth it? sounds like a great way to end the relationship poorly once that contract is over. At least with this contract there is a chance the Oilers can keep him after.


I do respect your opinion though as there is risk to this deal. One of the reasons I am ok with it is that I absolutely hate arbitration. It almost never ends well, and one of the side ends up super bitter while the other side is only kind of bitter.


I agree with Gator here, I think signing Nurse to a deal that's full value and takes him right up to UFA is crazy. People keep using Morrissey as a comparable, and that's fine if you want to talk about a long term deal, but they bought 6 UFA years with Morrissey, the Oilers got 0. A better comparable, imo, would be a contract like Werenski's that only buys RFA years. 3 years at $5M per for a guy that I think is a better player than Nurse today. And he still has a year of RFA once this contract expires. If Nurse wanted to only sign for 2 years than it should have been in the $4.5M range and if he doesn't than I would have taken him to arbitration.

Unless the Oilers plan on immediately trading Nurse, I dont understand how this makes any sense.


I'm thinking ~5M is where Nurse would end up with arbitration. And the Oilers may decide to make it 2 years. Then for sure he's done here, because you have to insult the player and argue why he's only worth the 3.5M you present to the arbitrator after Nurse's camp says 7.5M, hehe.

Actually, arbiration usually always just goes to the middle of both sides doesn't it? If Nurse says 7.5M, I guess we have to offer 2.5M :)


What's the alternative? Pay him $8M on a long term deal in 2 years? That's crazy. I guess what's bothering me about this is that all the signaling seems to be indicating to me that that is what they intend to do. If he was willing to sign for around $7M long-term, then why not do it now when you can include these 2 rfa years and maybe bring the cap hit in at slightly below $7M.

There's no reason to sign this deal today if you think you can make that happen. But if you think Nurse wants $8M+ and you dont think he's going to move off that number, then you sign this deal now to keep him happy and in 2 years when the cap has gone up and you've cleared out some dead space then you pay him what he wants.

And if you think he's going to get $8M but you aren't willing to go that high then you might as well bargain hard now to get him as cheap as possible for 2 years, because he won't be here after that anyways.


We'll see what he's worth in a couple of years. I suspect you're right and on the open market at 27 years of age, Nurse will command something in the $8MM range. But I also think there's a deep defenceman pool here right now, so he may not be as critical to the team's defence in that time.

I would have been happy to see him with a 4 or 5 year deal, but not for big money. I do think that the player would have had a hard time agreeing to that here.

He's now the most expensive defenceman we have at $5.6MM, and while there's an argument he may still be overpaid, it's not even close to what many of our overpays have been.

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 Re: Nurse extended 2 years [message #754179 is a reply to message #754173 ]
Tue, 11 February 2020 10:42 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Adam wrote on Tue, 11 February 2020 09:33


He's now the most expensive defenceman we have at $5.6MM, and while there's an argument he may still be overpaid, it's not even close to what many of our overpays have been.


Progress!

It's going to be death by a thousand cuts soon. An extra million for Kassian, $500k and and an extra year too much for Chiasson, $500k - $1M too much for Nurse (and then like $2M too much if they give him $8M+).

Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
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19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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 Re: Nurse extended 2 years [message #754182 is a reply to message #754179 ]
Tue, 11 February 2020 10:47 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently offline Adam
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Goose wrote on Tue, 11 February 2020 10:42

Adam wrote on Tue, 11 February 2020 09:33


He's now the most expensive defenceman we have at $5.6MM, and while there's an argument he may still be overpaid, it's not even close to what many of our overpays have been.


Progress!

It's going to be death by a thousand cuts soon. An extra million for Kassian, $500k and and an extra year too much for Chiasson, $500k - $1M too much for Nurse (and then like $2M too much if they give him $8M+).


Haha...it's always been death by a thousand cuts here. The team has always overpaid its players (other than McDavid) because management is absolutely petrified that they'll demand a trade out, or say something bad about the organization.

But if Nurse is overpaid, it's only by 10% compared to probably 50-75% for Chiasson and 100+% for Kris Russell, or 300-400% like Fayne & Nikitin. So yes, there's progress.

We have always known that the team's management LOVES Darnell Nurse and sees him as a critical core piece. Did you really believe it was out of the realm of possibility that they would agree to pay him $7.5MM for 8 years on this deal instead? I see the fact they didn't go long term for a stupid dollar as a real win.

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 Re: Nurse extended 2 years [message #754187 is a reply to message #754182 ]
Tue, 11 February 2020 10:58 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Adam wrote on Tue, 11 February 2020 09:47


We have always known that the team's management LOVES Darnell Nurse and sees him as a critical core piece. Did you really believe it was out of the realm of possibility that they would agree to pay him $7.5MM for 8 years on this deal instead? I see the fact they didn't go long term for a stupid dollar as a real win.


No, that's exactly what my fear is. If we factor in these 2 years then a $7.5MAAV means north of $8.2M for the remaining ufa years. My fear is that they're signalling that that is exactly what they're going to do in 2 years.

Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
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19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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 Re: Nurse extended 2 years [message #754189 is a reply to message #754187 ]
Tue, 11 February 2020 11:11 Go to previous message
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Goose wrote on Tue, 11 February 2020 10:58

Adam wrote on Tue, 11 February 2020 09:47


We have always known that the team's management LOVES Darnell Nurse and sees him as a critical core piece. Did you really believe it was out of the realm of possibility that they would agree to pay him $7.5MM for 8 years on this deal instead? I see the fact they didn't go long term for a stupid dollar as a real win.


No, that's exactly what my fear is. If we factor in these 2 years then a $7.5MAAV means north of $8.2M for the remaining ufa years. My fear is that they're signalling that that is exactly what they're going to do in 2 years.


At least they didn't do it now and screw over the cap for the next two years too!

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 Re: Nurse extended 2 years [message #754174 is a reply to message #754158 ]
Tue, 11 February 2020 10:34 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Goose wrote on Tue, 11 February 2020 10:10

Kr55 wrote on Tue, 11 February 2020 08:25

Goose wrote on Tue, 11 February 2020 09:16

PlusOne wrote on Tue, 11 February 2020 07:31


Again, you are assuming that Nurse agrees that is his value and that no one else in the league would pay more.
We know that Nurse doesnt agree but dont about the rest of the league. That said, I am 90% sure that if Nurse was an FA he would get well over Morrisey. You continue to drop this 600K like it is fact and it simply isnt. Even if they went to arbitration the agent would bring in a long list of reasons that isnt perfect (even if it is) and higher paid, worse, players as his comparables. Now the Oilers get to list all the reasons Nurse isnt worth it? sounds like a great way to end the relationship poorly once that contract is over. At least with this contract there is a chance the Oilers can keep him after.


I do respect your opinion though as there is risk to this deal. One of the reasons I am ok with it is that I absolutely hate arbitration. It almost never ends well, and one of the side ends up super bitter while the other side is only kind of bitter.


I agree with Gator here, I think signing Nurse to a deal that's full value and takes him right up to UFA is crazy. People keep using Morrissey as a comparable, and that's fine if you want to talk about a long term deal, but they bought 6 UFA years with Morrissey, the Oilers got 0. A better comparable, imo, would be a contract like Werenski's that only buys RFA years. 3 years at $5M per for a guy that I think is a better player than Nurse today. And he still has a year of RFA once this contract expires. If Nurse wanted to only sign for 2 years than it should have been in the $4.5M range and if he doesn't than I would have taken him to arbitration.

Unless the Oilers plan on immediately trading Nurse, I dont understand how this makes any sense.


I'm thinking ~5M is where Nurse would end up with arbitration. And the Oilers may decide to make it 2 years. Then for sure he's done here, because you have to insult the player and argue why he's only worth the 3.5M you present to the arbitrator after Nurse's camp says 7.5M, hehe.

Actually, arbiration usually always just goes to the middle of both sides doesn't it? If Nurse says 7.5M, I guess we have to offer 2.5M :)


What's the alternative? Pay him $8M on a long term deal in 2 years? That's crazy. I guess what's bothering me about this is that all the signaling seems to be indicating to me that that is what they intend to do. If he was willing to sign for around $7M long-term, then why not do it now when you can include these 2 rfa years and maybe bring the cap hit in at slightly below $7M.

There's no reason to sign this deal today if you think you can make that happen. But if you think Nurse wants $8M+ and you dont think he's going to move off that number, then you sign this deal now to keep him happy and in 2 years when the cap has gone up and you've cleared out some dead space then you pay him what he wants.

And if you think he's going to get $8M but you aren't willing to go that high then you might as well bargain hard now to get him as cheap as possible for 2 years, because he won't be here after that anyways.


In a perfect world, in 2 years after he's playing 2nd pair minutes and performing like a 3-4 guy, he gets 3-4 money long term, say 6.5-7M for ~5 years.

But, I imagine Nurse's expectations for what he should be getting in a couple years are different and it does seem likely that he moves on, unless we love him so much we just give him 7.5+ long term because the sweet TV deal comes through and there is a nice cap bump.

I wonder if the magic TV deal cap increase is a focus for lots of players now too. They just want to get to be free agents after that comes through so they can try to get a big chunk of the suddenly expanded pie.

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 Re: Nurse extended 2 years [message #754159 is a reply to message #754156 ]
Tue, 11 February 2020 10:10 Go to previous messageGo to next message
PlusOne is currently online PlusOne
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Goose wrote on Tue, 11 February 2020 10:16

PlusOne wrote on Tue, 11 February 2020 07:31


Again, you are assuming that Nurse agrees that is his value and that no one else in the league would pay more.
We know that Nurse doesnt agree but dont about the rest of the league. That said, I am 90% sure that if Nurse was an FA he would get well over Morrisey. You continue to drop this 600K like it is fact and it simply isnt. Even if they went to arbitration the agent would bring in a long list of reasons that isnt perfect (even if it is) and higher paid, worse, players as his comparables. Now the Oilers get to list all the reasons Nurse isnt worth it? sounds like a great way to end the relationship poorly once that contract is over. At least with this contract there is a chance the Oilers can keep him after.


I do respect your opinion though as there is risk to this deal. One of the reasons I am ok with it is that I absolutely hate arbitration. It almost never ends well, and one of the side ends up super bitter while the other side is only kind of bitter.


I agree with Gator here, I think signing Nurse to a deal that's full value and takes him right up to UFA is crazy. People keep using Morrissey as a comparable, and that's fine if you want to talk about a long term deal, but they bought 6 UFA years with Morrissey, the Oilers got 0. A better comparable, imo, would be a contract like Werenski's that only buys RFA years. 3 years at $5M per for a guy that I think is a better player than Nurse today. And he still has a year of RFA once this contract expires. If Nurse wanted to only sign for 2 years than it should have been in the $4.5M range and if he doesn't than I would have taken him to arbitration.

Unless the Oilers plan on immediately trading Nurse, I dont understand how this makes any sense.


Also a fair opinion, like Gator's. I think this boils down to one's thoughts on arbitration.
None of us know what the Oilers offered long term, what Nurse would actually be willing to accept, what he is actually worth today (or in two years) as an UFA or what he would get if it did go to arbitration.

I hate arbitration and think that it damages everything long term but can see why some hate this deal.

Good talk convo though and I am happy to agree to disagree. Perhaps we will all re-visit this thread in two years and see what actually ends up happening.


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 Re: Nurse extended 2 years @ 5.6AAV [message #754126 is a reply to message #754019 ]
Mon, 10 February 2020 17:52 Go to previous messageGo to next message
cosmicheretic is currently offline cosmicheretic
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Good deal IMO. Right now we need flexibility to move pieces and have some cap to work with in doing that. The roster is no where near set in stone yet.

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