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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #788973 is a reply to message #788934 ]
Mon, 12 July 2021 13:44 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Rocksteady  is currently offline Rocksteady
Messages: 486
Registered: March 2007

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This f'n team.

I said Holland has lots of runway, and it just ran out. What a terrible trade.

No salary retention, send Caleb and a conditional pick and ... AND from what I'm hearing.. a NMC.

Wow.




The very definition of insanity is doing the exact same thing expecting different results.

Generally Disappointed.

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #788976 is a reply to message #788973 ]
Mon, 12 July 2021 14:06 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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Rocksteady wrote on Mon, 12 July 2021 13:44

This f'n team.

I said Holland has lots of runway, and it just ran out. What a terrible trade.

No salary retention, send Caleb and a conditional pick and ... AND from what I'm hearing.. a NMC.

Wow.




Apparently you now have to honour NMCs unless you can convince the player that they will waive it. He already had that, so it was part of acquiring him.

Lots to crucify Holland for in this deal - I really don't understand what the Oilers are thinking at all here - but the NMC is just part of the package, so I'll let him off for that.



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireLowe #FireBobbyNicks #FireKenHolland #FireKeithGretzky

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #788981 is a reply to message #788976 ]
Mon, 12 July 2021 14:16 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Rocksteady  is currently offline Rocksteady
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Adam wrote on Mon, 12 July 2021 14:06

Apparently you now have to honour NMCs unless you can convince the player that they will waive it. He already had that, so it was part of acquiring him.

Lots to crucify Holland for in this deal - I really don't understand what the Oilers are thinking at all here - but the NMC is just part of the package, so I'll let him off for that.


Only thing I can really see if Klef is done. Holland thinks forward that the deal makes sense so he can go without having to overpay on term and $$$ on the free market for several years. Holland is waiting for Broberg/Bouchard/Samorukov to get moved up the system and play on the team and must think they are getting ready to go.

That's the only line of thinking that makes sense.




The very definition of insanity is doing the exact same thing expecting different results.

Generally Disappointed.

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #788982 is a reply to message #788981 ]
Mon, 12 July 2021 14:18 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrudeRemarks  is currently offline CrudeRemarks
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Rocksteady wrote on Mon, 12 July 2021 14:16

Adam wrote on Mon, 12 July 2021 14:06

Apparently you now have to honour NMCs unless you can convince the player that they will waive it. He already had that, so it was part of acquiring him.

Lots to crucify Holland for in this deal - I really don't understand what the Oilers are thinking at all here - but the NMC is just part of the package, so I'll let him off for that.


Only thing I can really see if Klef is done. Holland thinks forward that the deal makes sense so he can go without having to overpay on term and $$$ on the free market for several years. Holland is waiting for Broberg/Bouchard/Samorukov to get moved up the system and play on the team and must think they are getting ready to go.

That's the only line of thinking that makes sense.



I see where it's gone wrong. You can't try to "make sense" of this stuff. Just accept that Oilers mgmt are the smartest guys in any room and the 5D chess they're playing will work out eventually.


I mean, not this upcoming year obviously because we are still in a developmental stage, but once the Keith cap hit comes off the books and we can really spend in free agency things will be different.



You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you just might find, you can get a lottery pick.


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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #788979 is a reply to message #788934 ]
Mon, 12 July 2021 14:14 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mightyreasoner  is currently offline mightyreasoner
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Just brutal. Completely indefensible and inexcusable.

Also - I think Katz might be short on cash.



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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #788983 is a reply to message #788979 ]
Mon, 12 July 2021 14:19 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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mightyreasoner wrote on Mon, 12 July 2021 14:14

Just brutal. Completely indefensible and inexcusable.

Also - I think Katz might be short on cash.


So we're seeing this one point again and again and again from media guys - that Keith's salary is below his cap hit. Spector and Matheson have already pointed it out again this afternoon.

They're making it sound like that somehow saves the team. It doesn't. Not at all. We aren't a cap floor team, so it's not really relevant. We don't have to spend to the cap, so if they wanted a $2MM defenceman, they could have just signed someone at that price range. They'd probably still be better than the over-the-hill version of Duncan Keith.

All we've done is tied up cap space which we now can't use in the future. Unless by some miracle he retires after one year.



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireLowe #FireBobbyNicks #FireKenHolland #FireKeithGretzky

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #788985 is a reply to message #788983 ]
Mon, 12 July 2021 14:27 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Skoobz  is currently offline Skoobz
Messages: 334
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I hate having to protect him, more than the cap hit (which I also hate).

As for the player, I’m hopeful that he looks good in more limited usage and can help a team that has now choked in the playoffs twice in a row find another gear.

Caleb Jones has had like three good games as an Oiler, so I really don’t care that he is gone. And a third round pick isn’t much more than a prayer.

Clearly, they know Klefbom’s career is over, and I expect that there’s a plan to move out Neal.

I get the rage with this deal, but I really don’t feel it that much personally. I actually am kind of excited to see what Bouchard can learn from him.



"[It was] really cool to throw on the Oilers gear, the gear that I want to play the rest of my life wearing. It was pretty cool to put it on. With all the history, it was a lot of fun." - Connor McDavid, July 1, 2015

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #788990 is a reply to message #788985 ]
Mon, 12 July 2021 14:39 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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Here's Jonathan Willis commenting on an Athletic article on the trade.

Quote:

Jonathan Willis
@JonathanWillis

From Lazerus:
"It's frankly shocking that this trade was made without the Blackhawks retaining any salary."
"... the Blackhawks really had no other potential trading partner but Edmonton"
"Edmonton theoretically had all the leverage"


Lazerus is the Chicago reporter on that article (along with Daniel N-B). We're seeing guys like Haggerty in Boston, who's as old-timey a hockey guy as there is, mocking this deal. Everyone knows the Oilers got taken to the woodshed. So why would we let that happen!? It absolutely boggles the mind.

Do they really believe that somehow Keith is going to defy aging and become the next Chris Chelios here? You'd think Holland, of all people, would know that Chelios wasn't a huge difference maker after 40 in Chicago. They had a team full of star players. They had Hasek, Lidstrom, Yzerman, etc. etc.

Bowman played Holland for a doddering old fool, and he was clearly right to do so. Even the initial bid Holland made (that the Oilers have decided for some reason to give to Mark Spector), is way too much to surrender.



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireLowe #FireBobbyNicks #FireKenHolland #FireKeithGretzky

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789005 is a reply to message #788983 ]
Mon, 12 July 2021 15:16 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mightyreasoner  is currently offline mightyreasoner
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Adam wrote on Mon, 12 July 2021 14:19

mightyreasoner wrote on Mon, 12 July 2021 14:14

Just brutal. Completely indefensible and inexcusable.

Also - I think Katz might be short on cash.


So we're seeing this one point again and again and again from media guys - that Keith's salary is below his cap hit. Spector and Matheson have already pointed it out again this afternoon.

They're making it sound like that somehow saves the team. It doesn't. Not at all. We aren't a cap floor team, so it's not really relevant. We don't have to spend to the cap, so if they wanted a $2MM defenceman, they could have just signed someone at that price range. They'd probably still be better than the over-the-hill version of Duncan Keith.

All we've done is tied up cap space which we now can't use in the future. Unless by some miracle he retires after one year.


It would allow Katz to be look like a cap max team, while spending below it.

It's not just this though. A conversation I had with an ex-Oilers employee makes it sound like things are tight financially.

I'm not saying he's broke, but a year and a half without revenue from fans may have tightened up the cash flow into the organization. I do sort of believe that.



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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789008 is a reply to message #789005 ]
Mon, 12 July 2021 15:23 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
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mightyreasoner wrote on Mon, 12 July 2021 15:16

Adam wrote on Mon, 12 July 2021 14:19

mightyreasoner wrote on Mon, 12 July 2021 14:14

Just brutal. Completely indefensible and inexcusable.

Also - I think Katz might be short on cash.


So we're seeing this one point again and again and again from media guys - that Keith's salary is below his cap hit. Spector and Matheson have already pointed it out again this afternoon.

They're making it sound like that somehow saves the team. It doesn't. Not at all. We aren't a cap floor team, so it's not really relevant. We don't have to spend to the cap, so if they wanted a $2MM defenceman, they could have just signed someone at that price range. They'd probably still be better than the over-the-hill version of Duncan Keith.

All we've done is tied up cap space which we now can't use in the future. Unless by some miracle he retires after one year.


It would allow Katz to be look like a cap max team, while spending below it.

It's not just this though. A conversation I had with an ex-Oilers employee makes it sound like things are tight financially.

I'm not saying he's broke, but a year and a half without revenue from fans may have tightened up the cash flow into the organization. I do sort of believe that.


He still trying to make movies? Probably should have kept that recession proof business he had selling drugs instead of going all in on the industry that endlessly consumes them.



"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #788987 is a reply to message #788934 ]
Mon, 12 July 2021 14:33 Go to previous messageGo to next message
smyth260  is currently offline smyth260
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It’s especially funny and sad when you expect the worst deal from the Oilers and yet the real deal is even worse than that.


Clean house or bust

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #788988 is a reply to message #788987 ]
Mon, 12 July 2021 14:36 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
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smyth260 wrote on Mon, 12 July 2021 14:33

It’s especially funny and sad when you expect the worst deal from the Oilers and yet the real deal is even worse than that.


We really hate having 3rd round picks.



"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #788991 is a reply to message #788988 ]
Mon, 12 July 2021 14:40 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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Kr55 wrote on Mon, 12 July 2021 14:36

smyth260 wrote on Mon, 12 July 2021 14:33

It’s especially funny and sad when you expect the worst deal from the Oilers and yet the real deal is even worse than that.


We really hate having 3rd round picks.


Apparently we don't have a 2021 3rd rounder...have we heard if this is the 2022? or what the conditions are?



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireLowe #FireBobbyNicks #FireKenHolland #FireKeithGretzky

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #788993 is a reply to message #788991 ]
Mon, 12 July 2021 14:43 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
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Adam wrote on Mon, 12 July 2021 14:40

Kr55 wrote on Mon, 12 July 2021 14:36

smyth260 wrote on Mon, 12 July 2021 14:33

It’s especially funny and sad when you expect the worst deal from the Oilers and yet the real deal is even worse than that.


We really hate having 3rd round picks.


Apparently we don't have a 2021 3rd rounder...have we heard if this is the 2022? or what the conditions are?


3rd rounder if Keith scores 1 point.

He'll end up with 0 points, but the NHL will decide that's ridiculous and conclude his leadership skills were worth 1 point alone and give Chicago the 3rd round pick.



"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #788999 is a reply to message #788993 ]
Mon, 12 July 2021 15:00 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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The one good thing this time around is that I'm just sort of numbed to this ridiculous behaviour by the Oilers. I'm outraged of course, but when Taylor Hall was traded I was so mad that I had to pull in to a parking lot and just seethe for a while. Today, it's almost comical...you knew the Oilers were going to make this mistake for over a week, and the question was just how badly they were going to do on it. That it turned out to be literally as bad as anyone could imagine is just par for the course with this team.

It's pretty telling that even the local media is pretty tepid on the deal:

- Matheson calls this a clear win for Chicago because of no retained salary
- Rishaug calls it "high risk, high reward" (although it's unclear what the high reward would be...maybe if Keith is suddenly 2012 Duncan Keith again...
- Jon Willis pointing out that there's no Chiarelli crutch any more, since this is what Holland is deciding to spend cap space on it.
- Staples calls it a massive overplay.
- Spector, Stauffer and Jones going with the old adage of if you can't say anything nice, don't say anything at all...

And then there's Kurt Leavins:

Quote:

Kurt Leavins
@KurtLeavins
·
2h
The #Oilers Defence just got significantly better. Acquired Duncan Keith from Chicago for Caleb Jones & mid-round pick.
Like Matt Benning before him, Jones tried & failed to crack Top 4.
Keith a lock to play 18-20’ in Top 4.
Major influence on & off the ice.


A bootlicker to the end, he's now saying he thinks pick would have been a good prospect if Chicago had retained salary...amazing.



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireLowe #FireBobbyNicks #FireKenHolland #FireKeithGretzky

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789000 is a reply to message #788999 ]
Mon, 12 July 2021 15:04 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
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Adam wrote on Mon, 12 July 2021 15:00

The one good thing this time around is that I'm just sort of numbed to this ridiculous behaviour by the Oilers. I'm outraged of course, but when Taylor Hall was traded I was so mad that I had to pull in to a parking lot and just seethe for a while. Today, it's almost comical...you knew the Oilers were going to make this mistake for over a week, and the question was just how badly they were going to do on it. That it turned out to be literally as bad as anyone could imagine is just par for the course with this team.

It's pretty telling that even the local media is pretty tepid on the deal:

- Matheson calls this a clear win for Chicago because of no retained salary
- Rishaug calls it "high risk, high reward" (although it's unclear what the high reward would be...maybe if Keith is suddenly 2012 Duncan Keith again...
- Jon Willis pointing out that there's no Chiarelli crutch any more, since this is what Holland is deciding to spend cap space on it.
- Staples calls it a massive overplay.
- Spector, Stauffer and Jones going with the old adage of if you can't say anything nice, don't say anything at all...

And then there's Kurt Leavins:

Quote:

Kurt Leavins
@KurtLeavins
·
2h
The #Oilers Defence just got significantly better. Acquired Duncan Keith from Chicago for Caleb Jones & mid-round pick.
Like Matt Benning before him, Jones tried & failed to crack Top 4.
Keith a lock to play 18-20’ in Top 4.
Major influence on & off the ice.


A bootlicker to the end, he's now saying he thinks pick would have been a good prospect if Chicago had retained salary...amazing.


Is Leavins even profiting from kissing the Oilers orgs butt? Think he's just a normal superfan that is able to rationalize everything as OK while he continues to watch the Oilers suck, never taking a moment to wonder why.



"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789002 is a reply to message #789000 ]
Mon, 12 July 2021 15:09 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrudeRemarks  is currently offline CrudeRemarks
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Location: Edmonton

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Kr55 wrote on Mon, 12 July 2021 15:04

Adam wrote on Mon, 12 July 2021 15:00

The one good thing this time around is that I'm just sort of numbed to this ridiculous behaviour by the Oilers. I'm outraged of course, but when Taylor Hall was traded I was so mad that I had to pull in to a parking lot and just seethe for a while. Today, it's almost comical...you knew the Oilers were going to make this mistake for over a week, and the question was just how badly they were going to do on it. That it turned out to be literally as bad as anyone could imagine is just par for the course with this team.

It's pretty telling that even the local media is pretty tepid on the deal:

- Matheson calls this a clear win for Chicago because of no retained salary
- Rishaug calls it "high risk, high reward" (although it's unclear what the high reward would be...maybe if Keith is suddenly 2012 Duncan Keith again...
- Jon Willis pointing out that there's no Chiarelli crutch any more, since this is what Holland is deciding to spend cap space on it.
- Staples calls it a massive overplay.
- Spector, Stauffer and Jones going with the old adage of if you can't say anything nice, don't say anything at all...

And then there's Kurt Leavins:

Quote:

Kurt Leavins
@KurtLeavins
·
2h
The #Oilers Defence just got significantly better. Acquired Duncan Keith from Chicago for Caleb Jones & mid-round pick.
Like Matt Benning before him, Jones tried & failed to crack Top 4.
Keith a lock to play 18-20’ in Top 4.
Major influence on & off the ice.


A bootlicker to the end, he's now saying he thinks pick would have been a good prospect if Chicago had retained salary...amazing.


Is Leavins even profiting from kissing the Oilers orgs butt? Think he's just a normal superfan that is able to rationalize everything as OK while he continues to watch the Oilers suck, never taking a moment to wonder why.

I muted him on Twitter because his articles are so bad, then I had to mute David Staples because he wouldn't quit sharing them. Arguably I should've muted Staples anyways...



You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you just might find, you can get a lottery pick.


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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #788994 is a reply to message #788988 ]
Mon, 12 July 2021 14:49 Go to previous messageGo to next message
ggibbs  is currently offline ggibbs
Messages: 13
Registered: September 2007

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Funny, how so many here think they could have made a better deal, and as fans we over value our assets and undervalue a champion and hall of famer. I think this is a akin to the Hall deal. This was a deal for something desperately needed in that dressing room, in practice and in tight playoff games. We can post all we want about how our GM gave up too much, but he knows better than any of us what our young d core needs. A couple of years of leadership from Keith is the best bet on grooming a young and potentially great defence. Kieth is not the future of Oilers defence, but he will have an impact on what it will become.


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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #788995 is a reply to message #788994 ]
Mon, 12 July 2021 14:51 Go to previous messageGo to next message
smyth260  is currently offline smyth260
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I could have made a better deal by not making the deal.

You want leadership and intangibles, maybe Ken Holland can get Nik Lidstrom to consult for 6 months.



Clean house or bust

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #788996 is a reply to message #788994 ]
Mon, 12 July 2021 14:51 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi  is currently offline CrusaderPi
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ggibbs wrote on Mon, 12 July 2021 14:49

Funny, how so many here think they could have made a better deal, and as fans we over value our assets and undervalue a champion and hall of famer. I think this is a akin to the Hall deal. This was a deal for something desperately needed in that dressing room, in practice and in tight playoff games. We can post all we want about how our GM gave up too much, but he knows better than any of us what our young d core needs. A couple of years of leadership from Keith is the best bet on grooming a young and potentially great defence. Kieth is not the future of Oilers defence, but he will have an impact on what it will become.

I 100% could have made a better deal. Don't believe me? Watch. Here's it goes.

"No thank you"

*hangs up*




edit to add: dammit



Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #788998 is a reply to message #788996 ]
Mon, 12 July 2021 14:57 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
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CrusaderPi wrote on Mon, 12 July 2021 14:51

ggibbs wrote on Mon, 12 July 2021 14:49

Funny, how so many here think they could have made a better deal, and as fans we over value our assets and undervalue a champion and hall of famer. I think this is a akin to the Hall deal. This was a deal for something desperately needed in that dressing room, in practice and in tight playoff games. We can post all we want about how our GM gave up too much, but he knows better than any of us what our young d core needs. A couple of years of leadership from Keith is the best bet on grooming a young and potentially great defence. Kieth is not the future of Oilers defence, but he will have an impact on what it will become.

I 100% could have made a better deal. Don't believe me? Watch. Here's it goes.

"No thank you"

*hangs up*




edit to add: dammit


What? Holland didn't have a gun to his head that he had to get a LHD before the expansion draft, draft or free agency?

Wow, this looks a bit worse then if that's the case.



"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789014 is a reply to message #788994 ]
Mon, 12 July 2021 15:38 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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ggibbs wrote on Mon, 12 July 2021 14:49

Funny, how so many here think they could have made a better deal, and as fans we over value our assets and undervalue a champion and hall of famer. I think this is a akin to the Hall deal. This was a deal for something desperately needed in that dressing room, in practice and in tight playoff games. We can post all we want about how our GM gave up too much, but he knows better than any of us what our young d core needs. A couple of years of leadership from Keith is the best bet on grooming a young and potentially great defence. Kieth is not the future of Oilers defence, but he will have an impact on what it will become.


Ha ha ha...is this post actually defending this deal AND the Hall trade???

Do you actually believe that the Oilers needed to "lose a trade" with Taylor Hall? We have missed the playoffs more than we made it in the time since. Maybe that wasn't the best deal we could have made?

And this? We did not have to make the trade. I don't know why the Oilers acted as if they had to. And at the point where you know that the other team really wants to make a move and that they have almost no options where they can trade the player, you don't need to offer assets for that. You take them to the cleaners on the deal.

I swear, this team thinks the other GMs are all their friends and that they have to do them favours now and then and that eventually it will come back to us. Spoiler - it won't.



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireLowe #FireBobbyNicks #FireKenHolland #FireKeithGretzky

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789016 is a reply to message #789014 ]
Mon, 12 July 2021 15:44 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi  is currently offline CrusaderPi
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Adam wrote on Mon, 12 July 2021 15:38

ggibbs wrote on Mon, 12 July 2021 14:49

Funny, how so many here think they could have made a better deal, and as fans we over value our assets and undervalue a champion and hall of famer. I think this is a akin to the Hall deal. This was a deal for something desperately needed in that dressing room, in practice and in tight playoff games. We can post all we want about how our GM gave up too much, but he knows better than any of us what our young d core needs. A couple of years of leadership from Keith is the best bet on grooming a young and potentially great defence. Kieth is not the future of Oilers defence, but he will have an impact on what it will become.


Ha ha ha...is this post actually defending this deal AND the Hall trade???

Do you actually believe that the Oilers needed to "lose a trade" with Taylor Hall? We have missed the playoffs more than we made it in the time since. Maybe that wasn't the best deal we could have made?

And this? We did not have to make the trade. I don't know why the Oilers acted as if they had to. And at the point where you know that the other team really wants to make a move and that they have almost no options where they can trade the player, you don't need to offer assets for that. You take them to the cleaners on the deal.

I swear, this team thinks the other GMs are all their friends and that they have to do them favours now and then and that eventually it will come back to us. Spoiler - it won't.

It's too bad they can't still include future considerations in deals.



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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789057 is a reply to message #789014 ]
Mon, 12 July 2021 22:59 Go to previous messageGo to next message
ggibbs  is currently offline ggibbs
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What did we get for Hall? The very same player that is a priority to get signed next. A necessary evil that sacrificed a good player that would have priced himself out of town by now anyway. Caleb Jones might turn out to be a good player, maybe even a top 4, but it wasn’t going to happen with the depth in Edmonton. More likely Jones would have left for nothing to Seattle via expansion draft. If retaining all of Kieth’s salary is the issue, it is off the books in 2 seasons. About the same time the Oilers will need to buck up for a couple of young defenders that have matured and learned from Kieth. I concede that the 3rd rounder seems unnecessary, but that was likely the price needed to get Kieth before the expansion draft. Is it a risk? yes. But for a team who’s window for a cup is about to open, Kieth can be an important piece in raising the bar. For those that say the best decision would have been to just say no, this week passes by and the team is no better, they lose Jones anyway and likely give up another asset for Kieth or a plan B anyway. Speculation? Yes. But likely the scenario Holland saw playing out. Could he have held his cards a little longer, perhaps. But will also don’t know what other factors were in play. There’s a big assumption that the Oilers were the only team courting. Doing nothing would have been a mistake. So I challenge all the armchair execs out there to make a better move.


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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789059 is a reply to message #789057 ]
Mon, 12 July 2021 23:17 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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ggibbs wrote on Mon, 12 July 2021 22:59

What did we get for Hall? The very same player that is a priority to get signed next. A necessary evil that sacrificed a good player that would have priced himself out of town by now anyway. Caleb Jones might turn out to be a good player, maybe even a top 4, but it wasn’t going to happen with the depth in Edmonton. More likely Jones would have left for nothing to Seattle via expansion draft. If retaining all of Kieth’s salary is the issue, it is off the books in 2 seasons. About the same time the Oilers will need to buck up for a couple of young defenders that have matured and learned from Kieth. I concede that the 3rd rounder seems unnecessary, but that was likely the price needed to get Kieth before the expansion draft. Is it a risk? yes. But for a team who’s window for a cup is about to open, Kieth can be an important piece in raising the bar. For those that say the best decision would have been to just say no, this week passes by and the team is no better, they lose Jones anyway and likely give up another asset for Kieth or a plan B anyway. Speculation? Yes. But likely the scenario Holland saw playing out. Could he have held his cards a little longer, perhaps. But will also don’t know what other factors were in play. There’s a big assumption that the Oilers were the only team courting. Doing nothing would have been a mistake. So I challenge all the armchair execs out there to make a better move.


As said by CrusaderPi earlier, the better move was to hang up the phone. Holland has gambled that Keith can suddenly rewind the clock several years. He was a bad middle pairing defenceman last year - and we just spent a quarter of the team's outstanding cap space on him. We didn't do anything to make that better on ourselves.

The problem is that it doesn't really matter if there's others interested in him - we didn't need that player, and because of his no-move clause, the 'Hawks couldn't trade him almost anywhere else. We had all the power and we gave it away. Our first offer was much more than it should have been, and in the end, we gave up even more. Holland got played for an absolute fool. Even he knows that, which is why he came with all the excuses to his press conference.

Once again he's on the defensive because even he lacks confidence in the moves he's making.

I do wonder what the plan for this summer was. It wasn't likely to acquire Duncan Keith, since he wasn't available until just recently. So, the question needs to be asked - if this didn't suddenly become available and become the laser focus of the Oilers management team, then what was their game plan? Did they even have one? I assume if there was, it has been dashed today by this piece of idiocy, but honestly, I don't have any confidence they had any idea what to do until Chicago called and offered them a guy who used to be good. They probably told him that it would be just like that time when he acquired Chelios to play third pairing on a stacked team with double anyone else's payroll...



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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789062 is a reply to message #789059 ]
Mon, 12 July 2021 23:22 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
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Adam wrote on Mon, 12 July 2021 23:17

ggibbs wrote on Mon, 12 July 2021 22:59

What did we get for Hall? The very same player that is a priority to get signed next. A necessary evil that sacrificed a good player that would have priced himself out of town by now anyway. Caleb Jones might turn out to be a good player, maybe even a top 4, but it wasn’t going to happen with the depth in Edmonton. More likely Jones would have left for nothing to Seattle via expansion draft. If retaining all of Kieth’s salary is the issue, it is off the books in 2 seasons. About the same time the Oilers will need to buck up for a couple of young defenders that have matured and learned from Kieth. I concede that the 3rd rounder seems unnecessary, but that was likely the price needed to get Kieth before the expansion draft. Is it a risk? yes. But for a team who’s window for a cup is about to open, Kieth can be an important piece in raising the bar. For those that say the best decision would have been to just say no, this week passes by and the team is no better, they lose Jones anyway and likely give up another asset for Kieth or a plan B anyway. Speculation? Yes. But likely the scenario Holland saw playing out. Could he have held his cards a little longer, perhaps. But will also don’t know what other factors were in play. There’s a big assumption that the Oilers were the only team courting. Doing nothing would have been a mistake. So I challenge all the armchair execs out there to make a better move.


As said by CrusaderPi earlier, the better move was to hang up the phone. Holland has gambled that Keith can suddenly rewind the clock several years. He was a bad middle pairing defenceman last year - and we just spent a quarter of the team's outstanding cap space on him. We didn't do anything to make that better on ourselves.

The problem is that it doesn't really matter if there's others interested in him - we didn't need that player, and because of his no-move clause, the 'Hawks couldn't trade him almost anywhere else. We had all the power and we gave it away. Our first offer was much more than it should have been, and in the end, we gave up even more. Holland got played for an absolute fool. Even he knows that, which is why he came with all the excuses to his press conference.

Once again he's on the defensive because even he lacks confidence in the moves he's making.

I do wonder what the plan for this summer was. It wasn't likely to acquire Duncan Keith, since he wasn't available until just recently. So, the question needs to be asked - if this didn't suddenly become available and become the laser focus of the Oilers management team, then what was their game plan? Did they even have one? I assume if there was, it has been dashed today by this piece of idiocy, but honestly, I don't have any confidence they had any idea what to do until Chicago called and offered them a guy who used to be good. They probably told him that it would be just like that time when he acquired Chelios to play third pairing on a stacked team with double anyone else's payroll...


Plan was probably to wait and see what would shake loose around the expansion draft and free agency.

Then...we were blinded by the shine of 3 rings.



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- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789070 is a reply to message #789062 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 07:47 Go to previous messageGo to next message
ggibbs  is currently offline ggibbs
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Do you reallly think a long time NHL GM is blinded by the rings. Come on. This is a gamble yes. Any deal is. But this was a decision to improve this team now. I believe it does.


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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789075 is a reply to message #789070 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 08:58 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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ggibbs wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 07:47

Do you reallly think a long time NHL GM is blinded by the rings. Come on. This is a gamble yes. Any deal is. But this was a decision to improve this team now. I believe it does.


Yes, I think a long-time NHL GM can be blinded by a lot of things. Sports management is rife with incompetents. There's no set path, no training, and things can change dramatically over the course of a career.

Holland did well when he had no salary constraints and had an owner with extremely deep pockets who was willing to pay more than almost any other team. He also inherited a deep European scouting group who was focused there earlier and in more depth than most other teams, giving them a bit of an edge on who they picked (although they still had some incredible luck - they didn't project Datsyuk and Zetterberg to be as good).

The game changed in 2006 and Holland's been reeling since. They managed one more Cup on the backs of what they'd built before the lockout - but it's been in decline ever since. He's struggled to make good signings and trades for a lot of years.

As he basically laid out yesterday, he's not familiar with the numbers on the players he's acquiring. He, along with the other old dogs in the Oilers brass, eschews analytics, paying it no more than lip service. They got Duncan Keith because he used to be really good, and they're hoping that maybe, like Chris Chelios, he can be a player in to his 40s. That ignores that they had a deep capable defence around Chelios including one of the best defencemen of all-time. Chelios could be deeply shielded on that team. It was also a different era - anyone who remembers Chelios' last years in the NHL should remember that he was constantly fouling anyone: cross-checks, holds, slashes, interference. It always felt like he was given some freedom because he was really really old. He was a lot less effective after the lockout. His stats just plummet as does his usage.

Also - you can't really use a single example of a guy who played until he was 47, because let's face it - that ain't the norm. Keith's decline is more normal of a player in his late 30s. There's only two players older than him patrolling NHL bluelines - Chara & Greene - and we'll see if either of them find a home this summer. There's no guarantee there at all that both will be back.

The problem is, it doesn't seem like Holland's approached the Oilers job with much of a plan. He's kind of floated from point to point and it looks really scattered. They prioritized a goalie last year, but from all we can tell, they only really looked hard at one. Losing on that, they just accepted the status quo. They spent a bunch of assets at the 2020 deadline, then just let that all go. They decided to publicly say they didn't think last year was the year to push the chips in - they were saving their draft picks for later, and then as soon as the year is done, they traded two chips for an over-the-hill defenceman the second they heard he might be available. They seem to not understand leverage or deal-making at all - which puts them in a tough spot.

Sometimes you think Holland just is trying to repeat history - "what did I do before? Well, I had a Swedish defenceman...I better get one in the first round. And I traded for some old guys...that helped a lot in 2002...let's see who's on my rolodex and still playing..." And other GMs are just thrilled to help him out because they see him for the doddering old fool he's become.

We may as well have still had Chiarelli for that trade. It was as bad as any he did...although clearly, you were fans of those too...

I do blame the media for that. They spend so much time defending the franchise's bad moves in order to ensure access that they have helped to brainwash a large segment of the fanbase in to accepting anything, even as it moves us further and further away from ever winning another championship. I, for one, would prefer NOT to be a laughingstock for a while.



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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789079 is a reply to message #789075 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 09:41 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Mike  is currently offline Mike
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Again - why are we helping out another Western conference team who will be fighting for a playoff spot with us?

Keith was going to force the Hawks hand. They had absolutely 0 leverage here. They would have been forced to either protect him and try to work out a trade after the expansion draft, or buy him out. But instead not only do we let them off the hook, we toss them a couple of assets to boot, and now WE have to protect him. And we piss away about 30% of the much bandied about cap space we were going to have this offseason to address a top 6 winger, 3C and a goalie...I don't know how that gets done now.



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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789080 is a reply to message #789079 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 09:50 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
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Mike wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 09:41

Again - why are we helping out another Western conference team who will be fighting for a playoff spot with us?

Keith was going to force the Hawks hand. They had absolutely 0 leverage here. They would have been forced to either protect him and try to work out a trade after the expansion draft, or buy him out. But instead not only do we let them off the hook, we toss them a couple of assets to boot, and now WE have to protect him. And we piss away about 30% of the much bandied about cap space we were going to have this offseason to address a top 6 winger, 3C and a goalie...I don't know how that gets done now.


Pretty sure we got played doubly here with how the deal ties up the 2nd and 3rd round picks which messes up our next trade deadline. It's just so embarrassing.

Same GM that convinced Chia that Brandon Manning would help our team when Chicago was desperate to get Manning's terrible contract (and person) off their hands. They couldn't believe their fortunes. Here we are again helping them out.

I'm sure most GM's in the league had a good chuckle about the Oilers yesterday. Little less for other teams to worry about now regarding the team with McDavid and Drai, if they were worried at all.

[Updated on: Tue, 13 July 2021 10:00]


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- Lowe, 2013

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- MacT, 2015

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789095 is a reply to message #789080 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 11:06 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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Kr55 wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 09:50

Mike wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 09:41

Again - why are we helping out another Western conference team who will be fighting for a playoff spot with us?

Keith was going to force the Hawks hand. They had absolutely 0 leverage here. They would have been forced to either protect him and try to work out a trade after the expansion draft, or buy him out. But instead not only do we let them off the hook, we toss them a couple of assets to boot, and now WE have to protect him. And we piss away about 30% of the much bandied about cap space we were going to have this offseason to address a top 6 winger, 3C and a goalie...I don't know how that gets done now.


Pretty sure we got played doubly here with how the deal ties up the 2nd and 3rd round picks which messes up our next trade deadline. It's just so embarrassing.

Same GM that convinced Chia that Brandon Manning would help our team when Chicago was desperate to get Manning's terrible contract (and person) off their hands. They couldn't believe their fortunes. Here we are again helping them out.

I'm sure most GM's in the league had a good chuckle about the Oilers yesterday. Little less for other teams to worry about now regarding the team with McDavid and Drai, if they were worried at all.


Yeah, it's just depressing. I mean, here's the timeline - provided to us because the Oilers are as leaky as they could possibly be, most likely in an effort to convince fans to not hate the move:

- At some point in the last few weeks, Duncan Keith tells Chicago he wants out and that he wants to be in Western Canada to be close to his kid. He's got a no-move clause, so there's not many options left to the team. Somehow the list ends up as Vancouver & Edmonton, or so it's rumoured, although it doesn't sound like any of the discussions with Vancouver (or potentially Calgary) have been leaked. Whether that means that those teams just aren't as likely to run to every media guy they know with an update on their talks, or whether those talks never really got serious, we won't know. I suspect that Bowman was telling the Oilers that they were very serious.
- Bowman asks for Bear and/or McLeod, according to Friedman, while saying they won't keep salary. The wheels start turning for the Oilers. According to Mark Spector, rather than hanging up, we immediately countered back with Jones, a 3rd or 4th and Koskinen - which is similar to salary retention in that we'd be getting rid of a problem contract and freeing up money. That deal still would have been an overpay based on Chicago's situation...they just didn't have many options, and getting outbid by the Canucks at that point isn't a problem for us...it would have been an unforced error by Benning.
- Rather than negotiating in earnest at this point, the Oilers begin a PR campaign with the Edmonton media. There are so many problems with this. If you have confidence that you're doing the right thing, why do you need to try to sell it to your fans? Just do what you need to do and let the results speak for themselves. The Oilers don't have that confidence though, so immediately when they think they may be making a mistake, they start going into sell mode.
- At this point, Bowman has to know the Oilers are in his pocket. The charm offensive, the upsell of Keith from virtually every Edmonton-based media guy, the leaks about what their first offer was...it signals to the 'Hawks that Holland really wants to make this move, and that he's lacking confidence in his actions. He and the Oilers are more focused on positioning the fanbase than they are the rival GM, so really, he just holds his position. The Oilers have basically flipped up their cards now, and they're just ripe for the taking.
- He pushes them on timing, saying he needs the deal done before Friday's firming of the protected list, and no doubt sells to Holland that he's going to lose out because Vancouver is totally going to do this deal if he doesn't. Maybe he even gives him the little shoutouts about how Bowman's old man has talked about how important Chelios was to those Detroit teams back then, and that he's always said how thankful ol' Scotty was that Holland had the guts to make that move then. Share a little side joke about how stupid analytics is (as his analytics team snickers nearby), throws in a minor leaguer for who knows what reasons, and then what do you know, Holland collapses like a cheap tent.
- Holland then calls Friedman and gives him the scoop on the deal, as a thank you for putting out the initial ask from Chicago. The Edmonton media guys probably aren't thrilled with this call...they have done yeoman work carrying the water for this for a full week, and they get left in the cold. They start grumbling a little about the deal with some extremely light criticism but Holland starts calling in favours yesterday afternoon and you start seeing them change their tunes and start to toe the line again. Matheson has gone from saying it's a full-on win yesterday, to today going on a full-throated defence and bickering with fans on twitter. Stauffer was quiet for a long time after the deal, as the Oilers crafted for him the message he was supposed to say.
- Holland's press availability was a gong show. He had mostly softball questions from a very sympathetic group of reporters and still fumbled all over. Only Daniel Nugent-Bowman really challenged him at all, and he just got grouchy and snarky in response to that. His answers were terrible. He couldn't point to any numbers reason to get Duncan Keith. Just that he was old, and once he got an old guy and they won a Cup a couple years later. If you were looking for a reason to feel more confident in the guy making the decisions, you didn't see it yesterday. You saw a bumbling old man who'd been taken to the woodshed on a deal by a rival, and thinks it's mean of anyone to point that out to him.

I'm losing hope that the Oilers are ever going to win in the McDavid era, and I'm starting to regret making my kids in to Oilers fans.



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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789107 is a reply to message #789095 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 11:37 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
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Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 11:06

Kr55 wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 09:50

Mike wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 09:41

Again - why are we helping out another Western conference team who will be fighting for a playoff spot with us?

Keith was going to force the Hawks hand. They had absolutely 0 leverage here. They would have been forced to either protect him and try to work out a trade after the expansion draft, or buy him out. But instead not only do we let them off the hook, we toss them a couple of assets to boot, and now WE have to protect him. And we piss away about 30% of the much bandied about cap space we were going to have this offseason to address a top 6 winger, 3C and a goalie...I don't know how that gets done now.


Pretty sure we got played doubly here with how the deal ties up the 2nd and 3rd round picks which messes up our next trade deadline. It's just so embarrassing.

Same GM that convinced Chia that Brandon Manning would help our team when Chicago was desperate to get Manning's terrible contract (and person) off their hands. They couldn't believe their fortunes. Here we are again helping them out.

I'm sure most GM's in the league had a good chuckle about the Oilers yesterday. Little less for other teams to worry about now regarding the team with McDavid and Drai, if they were worried at all.


Yeah, it's just depressing. I mean, here's the timeline - provided to us because the Oilers are as leaky as they could possibly be, most likely in an effort to convince fans to not hate the move:

- At some point in the last few weeks, Duncan Keith tells Chicago he wants out and that he wants to be in Western Canada to be close to his kid. He's got a no-move clause, so there's not many options left to the team. Somehow the list ends up as Vancouver & Edmonton, or so it's rumoured, although it doesn't sound like any of the discussions with Vancouver (or potentially Calgary) have been leaked. Whether that means that those teams just aren't as likely to run to every media guy they know with an update on their talks, or whether those talks never really got serious, we won't know. I suspect that Bowman was telling the Oilers that they were very serious.
- Bowman asks for Bear and/or McLeod, according to Friedman, while saying they won't keep salary. The wheels start turning for the Oilers. According to Mark Spector, rather than hanging up, we immediately countered back with Jones, a 3rd or 4th and Koskinen - which is similar to salary retention in that we'd be getting rid of a problem contract and freeing up money. That deal still would have been an overpay based on Chicago's situation...they just didn't have many options, and getting outbid by the Canucks at that point isn't a problem for us...it would have been an unforced error by Benning.
- Rather than negotiating in earnest at this point, the Oilers begin a PR campaign with the Edmonton media. There are so many problems with this. If you have confidence that you're doing the right thing, why do you need to try to sell it to your fans? Just do what you need to do and let the results speak for themselves. The Oilers don't have that confidence though, so immediately when they think they may be making a mistake, they start going into sell mode.
- At this point, Bowman has to know the Oilers are in his pocket. The charm offensive, the upsell of Keith from virtually every Edmonton-based media guy, the leaks about what their first offer was...it signals to the 'Hawks that Holland really wants to make this move, and that he's lacking confidence in his actions. He and the Oilers are more focused on positioning the fanbase than they are the rival GM, so really, he just holds his position. The Oilers have basically flipped up their cards now, and they're just ripe for the taking.
- He pushes them on timing, saying he needs the deal done before Friday's firming of the protected list, and no doubt sells to Holland that he's going to lose out because Vancouver is totally going to do this deal if he doesn't. Maybe he even gives him the little shoutouts about how Bowman's old man has talked about how important Chelios was to those Detroit teams back then, and that he's always said how thankful ol' Scotty was that Holland had the guts to make that move then. Share a little side joke about how stupid analytics is (as his analytics team snickers nearby), throws in a minor leaguer for who knows what reasons, and then what do you know, Holland collapses like a cheap tent.
- Holland then calls Friedman and gives him the scoop on the deal, as a thank you for putting out the initial ask from Chicago. The Edmonton media guys probably aren't thrilled with this call...they have done yeoman work carrying the water for this for a full week, and they get left in the cold. They start grumbling a little about the deal with some extremely light criticism but Holland starts calling in favours yesterday afternoon and you start seeing them change their tunes and start to toe the line again. Matheson has gone from saying it's a full-on win yesterday, to today going on a full-throated defence and bickering with fans on twitter. Stauffer was quiet for a long time after the deal, as the Oilers crafted for him the message he was supposed to say.
- Holland's press availability was a gong show. He had mostly softball questions from a very sympathetic group of reporters and still fumbled all over. Only Daniel Nugent-Bowman really challenged him at all, and he just got grouchy and snarky in response to that. His answers were terrible. He couldn't point to any numbers reason to get Duncan Keith. Just that he was old, and once he got an old guy and they won a Cup a couple years later. If you were looking for a reason to feel more confident in the guy making the decisions, you didn't see it yesterday. You saw a bumbling old man who'd been taken to the woodshed on a deal by a rival, and thinks it's mean of anyone to point that out to him.

I'm losing hope that the Oilers are ever going to win in the McDavid era, and I'm starting to regret making my kids in to Oilers fans.


I can't see a better option than the Oilers. Even if they lose, it's a wonderful case study for life lessons for kids, isn't it? Every year you can teach your kids so much about how to not run a business and not let stupid old-school biased thinking and misplaced loyalties cloud your judgement and let you keep digging deeper holes. How you can be gifted something amazing but if you take it for granted you will just end up wasting it. They're at least good for that. And maybe they will be lucky, and as they get into their 20's and 30's maybe they can actually witness an evolution in the teams approach that leads to winning, and they will have understood exactly what happened.

[Updated on: Tue, 13 July 2021 11:39]


"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789111 is a reply to message #789107 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 11:40 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi  is currently offline CrusaderPi
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Kr55 wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 11:37

Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 11:06

Kr55 wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 09:50

Mike wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 09:41

Again - why are we helping out another Western conference team who will be fighting for a playoff spot with us?

Keith was going to force the Hawks hand. They had absolutely 0 leverage here. They would have been forced to either protect him and try to work out a trade after the expansion draft, or buy him out. But instead not only do we let them off the hook, we toss them a couple of assets to boot, and now WE have to protect him. And we piss away about 30% of the much bandied about cap space we were going to have this offseason to address a top 6 winger, 3C and a goalie...I don't know how that gets done now.


Pretty sure we got played doubly here with how the deal ties up the 2nd and 3rd round picks which messes up our next trade deadline. It's just so embarrassing.

Same GM that convinced Chia that Brandon Manning would help our team when Chicago was desperate to get Manning's terrible contract (and person) off their hands. They couldn't believe their fortunes. Here we are again helping them out.

I'm sure most GM's in the league had a good chuckle about the Oilers yesterday. Little less for other teams to worry about now regarding the team with McDavid and Drai, if they were worried at all.


Yeah, it's just depressing. I mean, here's the timeline - provided to us because the Oilers are as leaky as they could possibly be, most likely in an effort to convince fans to not hate the move:

- At some point in the last few weeks, Duncan Keith tells Chicago he wants out and that he wants to be in Western Canada to be close to his kid. He's got a no-move clause, so there's not many options left to the team. Somehow the list ends up as Vancouver & Edmonton, or so it's rumoured, although it doesn't sound like any of the discussions with Vancouver (or potentially Calgary) have been leaked. Whether that means that those teams just aren't as likely to run to every media guy they know with an update on their talks, or whether those talks never really got serious, we won't know. I suspect that Bowman was telling the Oilers that they were very serious.
- Bowman asks for Bear and/or McLeod, according to Friedman, while saying they won't keep salary. The wheels start turning for the Oilers. According to Mark Spector, rather than hanging up, we immediately countered back with Jones, a 3rd or 4th and Koskinen - which is similar to salary retention in that we'd be getting rid of a problem contract and freeing up money. That deal still would have been an overpay based on Chicago's situation...they just didn't have many options, and getting outbid by the Canucks at that point isn't a problem for us...it would have been an unforced error by Benning.
- Rather than negotiating in earnest at this point, the Oilers begin a PR campaign with the Edmonton media. There are so many problems with this. If you have confidence that you're doing the right thing, why do you need to try to sell it to your fans? Just do what you need to do and let the results speak for themselves. The Oilers don't have that confidence though, so immediately when they think they may be making a mistake, they start going into sell mode.
- At this point, Bowman has to know the Oilers are in his pocket. The charm offensive, the upsell of Keith from virtually every Edmonton-based media guy, the leaks about what their first offer was...it signals to the 'Hawks that Holland really wants to make this move, and that he's lacking confidence in his actions. He and the Oilers are more focused on positioning the fanbase than they are the rival GM, so really, he just holds his position. The Oilers have basically flipped up their cards now, and they're just ripe for the taking.
- He pushes them on timing, saying he needs the deal done before Friday's firming of the protected list, and no doubt sells to Holland that he's going to lose out because Vancouver is totally going to do this deal if he doesn't. Maybe he even gives him the little shoutouts about how Bowman's old man has talked about how important Chelios was to those Detroit teams back then, and that he's always said how thankful ol' Scotty was that Holland had the guts to make that move then. Share a little side joke about how stupid analytics is (as his analytics team snickers nearby), throws in a minor leaguer for who knows what reasons, and then what do you know, Holland collapses like a cheap tent.
- Holland then calls Friedman and gives him the scoop on the deal, as a thank you for putting out the initial ask from Chicago. The Edmonton media guys probably aren't thrilled with this call...they have done yeoman work carrying the water for this for a full week, and they get left in the cold. They start grumbling a little about the deal with some extremely light criticism but Holland starts calling in favours yesterday afternoon and you start seeing them change their tunes and start to toe the line again. Matheson has gone from saying it's a full-on win yesterday, to today going on a full-throated defence and bickering with fans on twitter. Stauffer was quiet for a long time after the deal, as the Oilers crafted for him the message he was supposed to say.
- Holland's press availability was a gong show. He had mostly softball questions from a very sympathetic group of reporters and still fumbled all over. Only Daniel Nugent-Bowman really challenged him at all, and he just got grouchy and snarky in response to that. His answers were terrible. He couldn't point to any numbers reason to get Duncan Keith. Just that he was old, and once he got an old guy and they won a Cup a couple years later. If you were looking for a reason to feel more confident in the guy making the decisions, you didn't see it yesterday. You saw a bumbling old man who'd been taken to the woodshed on a deal by a rival, and thinks it's mean of anyone to point that out to him.

I'm losing hope that the Oilers are ever going to win in the McDavid era, and I'm starting to regret making my kids in to Oilers fans.


I can't see a better option than the Oilers. Even if they lose, it's a wonderful case study for life lessons for kids, isn't it? Every year you can teach your kids so much about how to not run a business and not let stupid old-school biased thinking and misplaced loyalties cloud your judgement and let you keep digging deeper holes. How you can be gifted something amazing but if you take it for granted you will just end up wasting it. They're at least good for that.

It's like Aesop's fables have been adapted for modern life.



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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789086 is a reply to message #789079 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 10:12 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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Mike wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 09:41

Again - why are we helping out another Western conference team who will be fighting for a playoff spot with us?

Keith was going to force the Hawks hand. They had absolutely 0 leverage here. They would have been forced to either protect him and try to work out a trade after the expansion draft, or buy him out. But instead not only do we let them off the hook, we toss them a couple of assets to boot, and now WE have to protect him. And we piss away about 30% of the much bandied about cap space we were going to have this offseason to address a top 6 winger, 3C and a goalie...I don't know how that gets done now.


Hilariously, today Ryan Suter is getting bought out. We could have had the equivalent player for relatively cheap without giving up assets in a couple weeks. Guarantee he doesn't have a $5.53MM cap hit when he's re-signed.



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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789089 is a reply to message #789086 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 10:20 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi  is currently offline CrusaderPi
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Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 10:12

Mike wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 09:41

Again - why are we helping out another Western conference team who will be fighting for a playoff spot with us?

Keith was going to force the Hawks hand. They had absolutely 0 leverage here. They would have been forced to either protect him and try to work out a trade after the expansion draft, or buy him out. But instead not only do we let them off the hook, we toss them a couple of assets to boot, and now WE have to protect him. And we piss away about 30% of the much bandied about cap space we were going to have this offseason to address a top 6 winger, 3C and a goalie...I don't know how that gets done now.


Hilariously, today Ryan Suter is getting bought out. We could have had the equivalent player for relatively cheap without giving up assets in a couple weeks. Guarantee he doesn't have a $5.53MM cap hit when he's re-signed.

Does Ryan Suter have an ex-wife and kid in Penticton too?



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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789091 is a reply to message #789086 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 10:21 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Mike  is currently offline Mike
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Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 13:12

Mike wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 09:41

Again - why are we helping out another Western conference team who will be fighting for a playoff spot with us?

Keith was going to force the Hawks hand. They had absolutely 0 leverage here. They would have been forced to either protect him and try to work out a trade after the expansion draft, or buy him out. But instead not only do we let them off the hook, we toss them a couple of assets to boot, and now WE have to protect him. And we piss away about 30% of the much bandied about cap space we were going to have this offseason to address a top 6 winger, 3C and a goalie...I don't know how that gets done now.


Hilariously, today Ryan Suter is getting bought out. We could have had the equivalent player for relatively cheap without giving up assets in a couple weeks. Guarantee he doesn't have a $5.53MM cap hit when he's re-signed.


I mean really - what was Bowman going to do? If he couldn't get a deal done you have to think they were going to buy him out. Why did this need to be done at all? And if it did, why NOW? Insane.



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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789096 is a reply to message #789091 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 11:08 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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Mike wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 10:21

Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 13:12

Mike wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 09:41

Again - why are we helping out another Western conference team who will be fighting for a playoff spot with us?

Keith was going to force the Hawks hand. They had absolutely 0 leverage here. They would have been forced to either protect him and try to work out a trade after the expansion draft, or buy him out. But instead not only do we let them off the hook, we toss them a couple of assets to boot, and now WE have to protect him. And we piss away about 30% of the much bandied about cap space we were going to have this offseason to address a top 6 winger, 3C and a goalie...I don't know how that gets done now.


Hilariously, today Ryan Suter is getting bought out. We could have had the equivalent player for relatively cheap without giving up assets in a couple weeks. Guarantee he doesn't have a $5.53MM cap hit when he's re-signed.


I mean really - what was Bowman going to do? If he couldn't get a deal done you have to think they were going to buy him out. Why did this need to be done at all? And if it did, why NOW? Insane.


Chicago pushed the timeline. They needed him moved ahead of the expansion protected list deadline. Holland went along because Chicago told him he had to move fast, and that if he didn't he'd miss out.

Chicago couldn't have even bought him out. The buyout is almost as bad as the full cap hit. They either kept him an extra year, or they paid him not to play, or they found a rube to take him on. Bowman opted for route #3...



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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789093 is a reply to message #789079 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 10:42 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Skookum Jim  is currently offline Skookum Jim
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Mike wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 08:41

Again - why are we helping out another Western conference team who will be fighting for a playoff spot with us?

Keith was going to force the Hawks hand. They had absolutely 0 leverage here. They would have been forced to either protect him and try to work out a trade after the expansion draft, or buy him out. But instead not only do we let them off the hook, we toss them a couple of assets to boot, and now WE have to protect him. And we piss away about 30% of the much bandied about cap space we were going to have this offseason to address a top 6 winger, 3C and a goalie...I don't know how that gets done now.


Only way I can think they couldn't have leveraged some cap retention is Seattle might've made an offer that included complete salary retention.. only way .. in addition to wanting Keith's cap to go after S. Jones et al, Chicago needed to get rid of his NMC so they didn't have to protect him in the expansion draft, they would have had to lose a good player, might've had to go 4-4-1, and expose even better players.. Holland is no Lamoriello.

One benefit of Keith deal is the term, only 2 years, I expect most UFA d-men (not considering a Hamilton, or S. Jones caliber) are shopping for long term contracts, at max. market price.. at least we avoid that.. Holland is gambling that in two years Samorukov and/or Broberg are playing top 4 on ELC's. 🤞🏻

[Updated on: Tue, 13 July 2021 10:54]


McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!!
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789097 is a reply to message #789093 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 11:10 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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Skookum Jim wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 10:42

Mike wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 08:41

Again - why are we helping out another Western conference team who will be fighting for a playoff spot with us?

Keith was going to force the Hawks hand. They had absolutely 0 leverage here. They would have been forced to either protect him and try to work out a trade after the expansion draft, or buy him out. But instead not only do we let them off the hook, we toss them a couple of assets to boot, and now WE have to protect him. And we piss away about 30% of the much bandied about cap space we were going to have this offseason to address a top 6 winger, 3C and a goalie...I don't know how that gets done now.


Only way I can think they couldn't have leveraged some cap retention is Seattle might've made an offer that included complete salary retention.. only way .. in addition to wanting Keith's cap to go after S. Jones et al, Chicago needed to get rid of his NMC so they didn't have to protect him in the expansion draft, they would have had to lose a good player, might've had to go 4-4-1, and expose even better players.. Holland is no Lamoriello.

One benefit of Keith deal is the term, only 2 years, I expect most UFA d-men (not considering a Hamilton, or S. Jones caliber) are shopping for long term contracts, at max. market price.. at least we avoid that.. Holland is gambling that in two years Samorukov and/or Broberg are playing top 4 on ELC's. 🤞🏻


This doesn't make sense. If Seattle was on the list of places Keith was willing to go, then he'd have just agreed to waive his NMC and hope he gets picked. He was clearly using his NMC to force a trade elsewhere though, so from that you can assume he wanted no part of the expansion team and had other targets in mind only.



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789017 is a reply to message #788994 ]
Mon, 12 July 2021 15:46 Go to previous messageGo to previous message
oilfan94  is currently offline oilfan94
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ggibbs wrote on Mon, 12 July 2021 16:49

Funny, how so many here think they could have made a better deal, and as fans we over value our assets and undervalue a champion and hall of famer. I think this is a akin to the Hall deal. This was a deal for something desperately needed in that dressing room, in practice and in tight playoff games. We can post all we want about how our GM gave up too much, but he knows better than any of us what our young d core needs. A couple of years of leadership from Keith is the best bet on grooming a young and potentially great defence. Kieth is not the future of Oilers defence, but he will have an impact on what it will become.


This makes me think of Adam Oates and how he taught the guys how to win faceoffs. Just because Keith has won awards, team and individual, does not mean that on July 12, 2021 he is worth what we paid. Not like there were a bunch of teams lining up for him. Edmonton held the chips on this one and still couldn't make a good deal.

That said, I hope Keith does really well. He is an Oiler now and I will gladly cheer him on for all the success possible. But I don't think history is on his side for having a better season than last as a 38 year old defender.



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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789018 is a reply to message #789017 ]
Mon, 12 July 2021 16:20 Go to previous messageGo to next message
jds308  is currently offline jds308
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oilfan94 wrote on Mon, 12 July 2021 14:46

ggibbs wrote on Mon, 12 July 2021 16:49

Funny, how so many here think they could have made a better deal, and as fans we over value our assets and undervalue a champion and hall of famer. I think this is a akin to the Hall deal. This was a deal for something desperately needed in that dressing room, in practice and in tight playoff games. We can post all we want about how our GM gave up too much, but he knows better than any of us what our young d core needs. A couple of years of leadership from Keith is the best bet on grooming a young and potentially great defence. Kieth is not the future of Oilers defence, but he will have an impact on what it will become.


This makes me think of Adam Oates and how he taught the guys how to win faceoffs. Just because Keith has won awards, team and individual, does not mean that on July 12, 2021 he is worth what we paid. Not like there were a bunch of teams lining up for him. Edmonton held the chips on this one and still couldn't make a good deal.

That said, I hope Keith does really well. He is an Oiler now and I will gladly cheer him on for all the success possible. But I don't think history is on his side for having a better season than last as a 38 year old defender.


This is where I'm at. Not happy with the trade, but am very hopeful that Keith can contribute and help mentor guys like Bouchard, Broberg, and even Nurse. I honestly hope he can exceed expectations because let's face it the bar is low.



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