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 Review: Buffalo @ Edmonton (Game #67) [message #831121]
Thu, 21 March 2024 21:30 Go to next message
OilFans  is currently offline OilFans
Messages: 1464
Registered: February 2006
Location: Edmonton

1 Cup

3
8
Final

Score Prediction
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Edmonton to win:   94%
Buffalo to win:   6%
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 Re: Review: Buffalo @ Edmonton (Game #67) [message #831126 is a reply to message #831121 ]
Thu, 21 March 2024 21:38 Go to previous messageGo to next message
JPro  is currently offline JPro
Messages: 793
Registered: January 2006
Location: Edmonton

No Cups

You know how you know you just lost embarrassingly bad to the Oilers? When Connor Brown gets in on the scoring too. It’s like the cherry on top of losing.


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 Re: Review: Buffalo @ Edmonton (Game #67) [message #831127 is a reply to message #831121 ]
Thu, 21 March 2024 21:39 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
Messages: 10049
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

It's Connor Brown's world. We're all just lucky to live in it.


"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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 Re: Review: Buffalo @ Edmonton (Game #67) [message #831129 is a reply to message #831121 ]
Thu, 21 March 2024 21:42 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Rowan Oil Fielding  is currently offline Rowan Oil Fielding
Messages: 230
Registered: July 2018

No Cups

I don't think it's too outrageous to say tonight was a decisive win?


https://i.postimg.cc/mZ9GD3V6/php2-CH3-Yf-AM.jpg

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 Re: Review: Buffalo @ Edmonton (Game #67) [message #831130 is a reply to message #831121 ]
Thu, 21 March 2024 21:52 Go to previous messageGo to next message
g2k  is currently offline g2k
Messages: 2772
Registered: January 2003
Location: The Hood

2 Cups

Would Love to see Hyman get his 49th & 50th Saturday night against the Maple Leafs.

In their faces!!!



#firebob #screwitjustselltheteam #ownerisacreep

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 Re: Review: Buffalo @ Edmonton (Game #67) [message #831133 is a reply to message #831130 ]
Fri, 22 March 2024 08:41 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
Messages: 6933
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

g2k wrote on Thu, 21 March 2024 21:52

Would Love to see Hyman get his 49th & 50th Saturday night against the Maple Leafs.

In their faces!!!


I'm at the game Tuesday in Winnipeg so I'm okay if he does it there too...



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireLowe #FireBobbyNicks #FireKenHolland #FireKeithGretzky

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 Re: Review: Buffalo @ Edmonton (Game #67) [message #831135 is a reply to message #831130 ]
Fri, 22 March 2024 13:21 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Skookum Jim  is currently offline Skookum Jim
Messages: 4054
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC

4 Cups

g2k wrote on Thu, 21 March 2024 20:52

Would Love to see Hyman get his 49th & 50th Saturday night against the Maple Leafs.

In their faces!!!


Oh man that would be so sweet .. pancreas working flat out to keep up.. icon_nod



McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!!
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

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 Re: Review: Buffalo @ Edmonton (Game #67) [message #831131 is a reply to message #831121 ]
Thu, 21 March 2024 22:11 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Suomalainen  is currently offline Suomalainen
Messages: 731
Registered: May 2002
Location: Boulder, CO

No Cups

Not bad for a 42-minute effort.
Glad to see the bottom-6 garbage time goals to pay off for the hard work.



97.

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 Re: Review: Buffalo @ Edmonton (Game #67) [message #831136 is a reply to message #831121 ]
Fri, 22 March 2024 13:47 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Skookum Jim  is currently offline Skookum Jim
Messages: 4054
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC

4 Cups

Ekholm is a beast.. what a game! He unleashed the Hammer of Thor on poor UPL .. (funny watching him finally lose it and smash his stick on the last goal with 9 seconds left)

Best D-man on the Oilers since CFP.. just awesome.

Since joining Oilers.. 86 games 11g + 36a = 47pts and ... +62 !!

plus his pairing with Bouchard has helped Bouchard immensely, I can't imagine Bouchard playing with any other Oiler D-man and still being as effective.. especially his +-

Just need a RHD equivalent!

Oilers finally started moving their feet in the 3rd, got a consistent forecheck working.. way too static in the 1st and 2nd.. like watching 2 different teams..

I liked McLeod taking the shot on the 2 on 1 with Kane.. he has a bad habit of passing off too many chances that end in no shot on net..

Positive signs!






McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!!
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

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 Re: Review: Buffalo @ Edmonton (Game #67) [message #831138 is a reply to message #831136 ]
Fri, 22 March 2024 16:17 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
Messages: 10049
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

Skookum Jim wrote on Fri, 22 March 2024 13:47

Ekholm is a beast.. what a game! He unleashed the Hammer of Thor on poor UPL .. (funny watching him finally lose it and smash his stick on the last goal with 9 seconds left)

Best D-man on the Oilers since CFP.. just awesome.

Since joining Oilers.. 86 games 11g + 36a = 47pts and ... +62 !!

plus his pairing with Bouchard has helped Bouchard immensely, I can't imagine Bouchard playing with any other Oiler D-man and still being as effective.. especially his +-

Just need a RHD equivalent!

Oilers finally started moving their feet in the 3rd, got a consistent forecheck working.. way too static in the 1st and 2nd.. like watching 2 different teams..

I liked McLeod taking the shot on the 2 on 1 with Kane.. he has a bad habit of passing off too many chances that end in no shot on net..

Positive signs!






It's interesting that Bouch without Ekholm actually has his xGF go up from 62.04% to 65.19% at 5v5. Ekholm drops to 54.73% but with tougher zone starts. Maybe there is Ceci time in there too which is a huge handicap of course.

Ekholm with Nashville never had number close to what he has had with Bouch here. He actually struggled pretty badly with a young D the year we acquired him. Under 50% xGF the 2 seasons before we got him. He was never really a headliner name on D, usually a 2nd pair guy behind Josi, lots of his career playing a rigid system. Successful regular season system that never seemed to pan out in playoffs minus one year. Somehow now his career is magically peaking at 33 years of age.


Statistically, our best pair this year is Kulak+Bouchard. 71.35% xGF. For contrast, Kulak+Vinny 57.35%, Kulak+Ceci 50.79%.

Small samples, but Ekholm+Vinny 40.95%, Ekholm+Ceci 38.35%.


One day ppl might have to consider Bouch helps Ek just as much as Ek helps Bouch. It's just a really good pair with 2 guys that compliment eachother well.

[Updated on: Fri, 22 March 2024 16:53]


"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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 Re: Review: Buffalo @ Edmonton (Game #67) [message #831142 is a reply to message #831138 ]
Fri, 22 March 2024 17:29 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Skookum Jim  is currently offline Skookum Jim
Messages: 4054
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC

4 Cups

Kr55 wrote on Fri, 22 March 2024 15:17

It's interesting that Bouch without Ekholm actually has his xGF go up from 62.04% to 65.19% at 5v5. Ekholm drops to 54.73% but with tougher zone starts. Maybe there is Ceci time in there too which is a huge handicap of course.

Ekholm with Nashville never had number close to what he has had with Bouch here. He actually struggled pretty badly with a young D the year we acquired him. Under 50% xGF the 2 seasons before we got him. He was never really a headliner name on D, usually a 2nd pair guy behind Josi, lots of his career playing a rigid system. Successful regular season system that never seemed to pan out in playoffs minus one year. Somehow now his career is magically peaking at 33 years of age.


Statistically, our best pair this year is Kulak+Bouchard. 71.35% xGF. For contrast, Kulak+Vinny 57.35%, Kulak+Ceci 50.79%.

Small samples, but Ekholm+Vinny 40.95%, Ekholm+Ceci 38.35%.


One day ppl might have to consider Bouch helps Ek just as much as Ek helps Bouch. It's just a really good pair with 2 guys that compliment eachother well.


Ekholm always stood out to me when we played Nashville, he was an absolute wall.. I was ecstatic when we got him.


I also think a lot of those GF GA stats need to include "time vs. elites" in their deciphering to get the real picture..

Also some of the pairings listed above; Kulak/Bouchard (75 minutes) .. Ekholm/Vinny (21 minutes).. Ekholm/Ceci (28 minutes).. I'd say are probably pretty small sample size to draw any big conclusions.

Below for reference are chances (CF/60, CA/60), goals GF/60, GA/60..

* I'd suggest any pairings with under 100 minutes 5v5 is relatively weak statistically..



2023/2024
D-Combos		                TOI 5v5		CF/60		CA/60		CF%		GF/60		GA/60		  GF%	     xGF/60	      xGA/60		xGF%

Mattias Ekholm & Evan Bouchard		985:10		71.1		47.3		60.1%		3.78		2.31		62.0%	     3.62		2.22		62.0%
Cody Ceci & Darnell Nurse		840:18		62.8		61.8		50.4%		2.64		2.50		51.4%	     3.1		2.87		51.9%
Brett Kulak & Vincent Desharnais        586:09		56.7		48.8		53.7%		2.15		1.64		56.8%	     2.66		1.98		57.4%
Cody Ceci & Brett Kulak		        181:25		57.6		60.9		48.6%		2.65		3.31		44.4%	     2.77		2.69		50.8%
Darnell Nurse & Vincent Desharnais	151:35		54.2		55.8		49.3%		1.19		1.98		37.5%	     2.01		2.34		46.2%
Brett Kulak & Evan Bouchard		74:57		84.1		44.0		65.6%		6.40		3.20		66.7%	     5.00		2.01		71.4%
Darnell Nurse & Evan Bouchard		66:18		79.6		53.4		59.9%		3.62		3.62		50.0%	     3.52		2.74		56.2%
Mattias Ekholm & Darnell Nurse		57:32		88.6		56.3		61.2%		3.13		1.04		75.0%	     3.14		2.88		52.2%
Brett Kulak & Philip Broberg		41:33		46.2		59.2		43.8%		4.33		2.89		60.0%	     2.63		2.63		50.0%
Brett Kulak & Darnell Nurse		38:58		63.1		63.1		50.0%		3.08		4.62		40.0%	     2.39		1.83		56.6%
Cody Ceci & Evan Bouchard		38:41		60.5		38.8		60.9%		1.55		0		100.0%	     4.06		2.03		66.7%
Vincent Desharnais & Evan Bouchard	32:13		52.2		46.6		52.8%		1.86		1.86		50.0%	     2.77		2.17		56.0%
Mattias Ekholm & Cody Ceci		28:33		54.6		61.0		47.3%		0		2.1		0.0%	     1.52		2.45		38.4%
Mattias Ekholm & Brett Kulak		27:10		92.8		42.0		68.9%		2.21		0		100.0%	     5.25		1.73		75.2%





Ekholm (Career)

Ekholm		       TOI 5v5		CF/60		CA/60		CF%		GF/60		GA/60		GF%		xGF/60		xGA/60		xGF%
20112012 - NSH		22:46		57.9		44.8		56.4%		0.00		2.63		0.0%		1.53		1.28		54.5%
20122013 - NSH		15:01		55.9		24.0		70.0%		0.00		3.99		0.0%		3.13		1.54		67.0%
20132014 - NSH		916:01		49.9		49.6		50.1%		2.29		2.75		45.5%		2.1		1.82		53.6%
20142015 - NSH		1285:31		58.4		45.3		56.3%		2.71		2.05		56.9%		2.41		1.72		58.3%
20152016 - NSH		1362:00		53.4		46.6		53.4%		2.56		2.07		55.2%		2.28		1.79		55.9%
20162017 - NSH		1540:21		58.0		50.5		53.5%		2.22		1.95		53.3%		2.28		1.97		53.6%
20172018 - NSH		1427:45		64.1		53.6		54.5%		2.73		2.27		54.6%		2.57		2.28		52.9%
20182019 - NSH		1504:13		60.2		51.3		54.0%		2.59		1.95		57.0%		2.57		2.25		53.3%
20192020 - NSH		1231:15		57.8		57.2		50.3%		2.73		2.97		47.9%		2.54		2.52		50.2%
20202021 - NSH		819:31		56.5		54.3		51.0%		3.15		1.61		66.2%		2.35		2.42		49.3%
20212022 - NSH		1311:37		52.2		54.3		49.0%		2.97		2.29		56.5%		2.34		2.37		49.7%
20222023 - NSH		948:55		60.1		54.1		52.6%		2.02		2.21		47.8%		2.92		2.41		54.8%
20222023 - EDM		355:18		65.7		46.6		58.5%		5.24		1.69		75.6%		3.63		2.27		61.6%
20232024 - EDM		1119:48		72.4		48.0		60.2%		3.54		2.14		62.3%		3.61		2.3		61.1%



Bouchard (Career)
Bouchard		TOI 5v5		CF/60		CA/60		CF%		GF/60		GA/60		GF%		xGF/60		xGA/60		xGF%
20182019 - EDM		71:10		59.9		51.4		53.8%		0.84		3.37		20.0%		2.71		2.33		53.8%
20202021 - EDM		189:24		61.8		57.3		51.9%		1.58		2.53		38.5%		2.26		2.43		48.2%
20212022 - EDM		1306:07		66.2		53.4		55.3%		2.85		2.71		51.2%		3.02		2.63		53.5%
20222023 - EDM		1234:46		64.5		48.7		57.0%		3.21		2.77		53.7%		3.26		2.39		57.7%
20232024 - EDM		1202:36		71.9		47.3		60.3%		3.84		2.39		61.6%		3.74		2.23		62.7%

[Updated on: Fri, 22 March 2024 20:42]


McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!!
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

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 Re: Review: Buffalo @ Edmonton (Game #67) [message #831143 is a reply to message #831142 ]
Sat, 23 March 2024 00:00 Go to previous message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
Messages: 10049
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

Skookum Jim wrote on Fri, 22 March 2024 17:29

Kr55 wrote on Fri, 22 March 2024 15:17

It's interesting that Bouch without Ekholm actually has his xGF go up from 62.04% to 65.19% at 5v5. Ekholm drops to 54.73% but with tougher zone starts. Maybe there is Ceci time in there too which is a huge handicap of course.

Ekholm with Nashville never had number close to what he has had with Bouch here. He actually struggled pretty badly with a young D the year we acquired him. Under 50% xGF the 2 seasons before we got him. He was never really a headliner name on D, usually a 2nd pair guy behind Josi, lots of his career playing a rigid system. Successful regular season system that never seemed to pan out in playoffs minus one year. Somehow now his career is magically peaking at 33 years of age.


Statistically, our best pair this year is Kulak+Bouchard. 71.35% xGF. For contrast, Kulak+Vinny 57.35%, Kulak+Ceci 50.79%.

Small samples, but Ekholm+Vinny 40.95%, Ekholm+Ceci 38.35%.


One day ppl might have to consider Bouch helps Ek just as much as Ek helps Bouch. It's just a really good pair with 2 guys that compliment eachother well.


Ekholm always stood out to me when we played Nashville, he was an absolute wall.. I was ecstatic when we got him.


I also think a lot of those GF GA stats need to include "time vs. elites" in their deciphering to get the real picture..

Also some of the pairings listed above; Kulak/Bouchard (75 minutes) .. Ekholm/Vinny (21 minutes).. Ekholm/Ceci (28 minutes).. I'd say are probably pretty small sample size to draw any big conclusions.

Below for reference are chances (CF/60, CA/60), goals GF/60, GA/60..

* I'd suggest any pairings with under 100 minutes 5v5 is relatively weak statistically..



2023/2024
D-Combos		                TOI 5v5		CF/60		CA/60		CF%		GF/60		GA/60		  GF%	     xGF/60	      xGA/60		xGF%

Mattias Ekholm & Evan Bouchard		985:10		71.1		47.3		60.1%		3.78		2.31		62.0%	     3.62		2.22		62.0%
Cody Ceci & Darnell Nurse		840:18		62.8		61.8		50.4%		2.64		2.50		51.4%	     3.1		2.87		51.9%
Brett Kulak & Vincent Desharnais        586:09		56.7		48.8		53.7%		2.15		1.64		56.8%	     2.66		1.98		57.4%
Cody Ceci & Brett Kulak		        181:25		57.6		60.9		48.6%		2.65		3.31		44.4%	     2.77		2.69		50.8%
Darnell Nurse & Vincent Desharnais	151:35		54.2		55.8		49.3%		1.19		1.98		37.5%	     2.01		2.34		46.2%
Brett Kulak & Evan Bouchard		74:57		84.1		44.0		65.6%		6.40		3.20		66.7%	     5.00		2.01		71.4%
Darnell Nurse & Evan Bouchard		66:18		79.6		53.4		59.9%		3.62		3.62		50.0%	     3.52		2.74		56.2%
Mattias Ekholm & Darnell Nurse		57:32		88.6		56.3		61.2%		3.13		1.04		75.0%	     3.14		2.88		52.2%
Brett Kulak & Philip Broberg		41:33		46.2		59.2		43.8%		4.33		2.89		60.0%	     2.63		2.63		50.0%
Brett Kulak & Darnell Nurse		38:58		63.1		63.1		50.0%		3.08		4.62		40.0%	     2.39		1.83		56.6%
Cody Ceci & Evan Bouchard		38:41		60.5		38.8		60.9%		1.55		0		100.0%	     4.06		2.03		66.7%
Vincent Desharnais & Evan Bouchard	32:13		52.2		46.6		52.8%		1.86		1.86		50.0%	     2.77		2.17		56.0%
Mattias Ekholm & Cody Ceci		28:33		54.6		61.0		47.3%		0		2.1		0.0%	     1.52		2.45		38.4%
Mattias Ekholm & Brett Kulak		27:10		92.8		42.0		68.9%		2.21		0		100.0%	     5.25		1.73		75.2%





Ekholm (Career)

Ekholm		       TOI 5v5		CF/60		CA/60		CF%		GF/60		GA/60		GF%		xGF/60		xGA/60		xGF%
20112012 - NSH		22:46		57.9		44.8		56.4%		0.00		2.63		0.0%		1.53		1.28		54.5%
20122013 - NSH		15:01		55.9		24.0		70.0%		0.00		3.99		0.0%		3.13		1.54		67.0%
20132014 - NSH		916:01		49.9		49.6		50.1%		2.29		2.75		45.5%		2.1		1.82		53.6%
20142015 - NSH		1285:31		58.4		45.3		56.3%		2.71		2.05		56.9%		2.41		1.72		58.3%
20152016 - NSH		1362:00		53.4		46.6		53.4%		2.56		2.07		55.2%		2.28		1.79		55.9%
20162017 - NSH		1540:21		58.0		50.5		53.5%		2.22		1.95		53.3%		2.28		1.97		53.6%
20172018 - NSH		1427:45		64.1		53.6		54.5%		2.73		2.27		54.6%		2.57		2.28		52.9%
20182019 - NSH		1504:13		60.2		51.3		54.0%		2.59		1.95		57.0%		2.57		2.25		53.3%
20192020 - NSH		1231:15		57.8		57.2		50.3%		2.73		2.97		47.9%		2.54		2.52		50.2%
20202021 - NSH		819:31		56.5		54.3		51.0%		3.15		1.61		66.2%		2.35		2.42		49.3%
20212022 - NSH		1311:37		52.2		54.3		49.0%		2.97		2.29		56.5%		2.34		2.37		49.7%
20222023 - NSH		948:55		60.1		54.1		52.6%		2.02		2.21		47.8%		2.92		2.41		54.8%
20222023 - EDM		355:18		65.7		46.6		58.5%		5.24		1.69		75.6%		3.63		2.27		61.6%
20232024 - EDM		1119:48		72.4		48.0		60.2%		3.54		2.14		62.3%		3.61		2.3		61.1%



Bouchard (Career)
Bouchard		TOI 5v5		CF/60		CA/60		CF%		GF/60		GA/60		GF%		xGF/60		xGA/60		xGF%
20182019 - EDM		71:10		59.9		51.4		53.8%		0.84		3.37		20.0%		2.71		2.33		53.8%
20202021 - EDM		189:24		61.8		57.3		51.9%		1.58		2.53		38.5%		2.26		2.43		48.2%
20212022 - EDM		1306:07		66.2		53.4		55.3%		2.85		2.71		51.2%		3.02		2.63		53.5%
20222023 - EDM		1234:46		64.5		48.7		57.0%		3.21		2.77		53.7%		3.26		2.39		57.7%
20232024 - EDM		1202:36		71.9		47.3		60.3%		3.84		2.39		61.6%		3.74		2.23		62.7%




Yeah, samples are small over other pairs. Ek and Bouch play together a lot. Bouch seems to play apart from Ek more, but that's because Ek was injured. Ek has very little time away from Bouch. 200 minutes total at 5v5 in the last 2 seasons. Not much to really draw any conclusions from.

Ev elites is hard to combine with pairs. Bouch technically has more ice time this season than Ek vs Elite players according to Puck IQ.

I think those stats you show display pretty well how Ek is suddenly performing the best of his career at the ripe young age of 32/33. 1 year removed from Nashville considering him the guy they could toss as a cap dump after just giving him a 4 year deal. It's just a good pair and we and Holland are very lucky. Bouch is making plays all night long. Ek is slower passing IMO and does a lot of the ring arounds, but positionally he's great and almost always in the right spot. That's what you want. A puck mover either passing (Bouch) or transporting (Nurse) and a solid defender. We forgot the solid RHD piece for Nurse unfortunately. Ceci always seems to think he is the elite puck mover and Nurse is supposed to back him up.


Not trying to bash Ek btw. Just IMO ppl are overrating him, and I think sometimes it is coupled with a need to underrate Bouch at the same time. Bouch needs a solid defender, Ek needs a puck mover. They are both elite at what they do, and the result is a pair that is performing as one of the best in the entire NHL. Like a top 5 in the league D pair, consistently. Bouch IMO is the harder type of player to find as well. There are lots of solid defenders out there that you could put with Bouch and get similar results. Not as good probably, but close. It's hard to find players that compliment each other this well. There are far fewer elite 5v5 puck movers out there that you could put with Ekholm and get similar results. That's my opinion of course.

[Updated on: Sat, 23 March 2024 00:16]


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 Re: Review: Buffalo @ Edmonton (Game #67) [message #831137 is a reply to message #831121 ]
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2 Cups

What a wild game. I went through a myriad of emotions before settling on bliss. It reminded of riding a BMX up a steep hill. Horrendous, until you reach the summit and enjoy the effortless coasting ride to the finish line.


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