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 Pregame: Edmonton @ Carolina (Game #18) [message #827430]
Wed, 22 November 2023 02:00 Go to next message
OilFans  is currently offline OilFans
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Edmonton to win: 47%
Carolina to win: 53%
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2023-24 Regular Season
Wednesday, November 22, 2023Edmonton 3 @ Carolina 6Loss
Wednesday, December 6, 2023Carolina 1 @ Edmonton 6Win
Home Record: 1-0-0       Road Record: 0-1-0       Overall Record: 1-1-0
Home / Road Goals For: 6/3 Total: 9
Home / Road Goals Against: 1/6 Total: 7

2022-23 Regular Season
Thursday, October 20, 2022Carolina 4 @ Edmonton 6Win
Thursday, November 10, 2022Edmonton 2 @ Carolina 7Loss
Home Record: 1-0-0       Road Record: 0-1-0       Overall Record: 1-1-0
Home / Road Goals For: 6/2 Total: 8
Home / Road Goals Against: 4/7 Total: 11




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 Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Carolina (Game #18) [message #827431 is a reply to message #827430 ]
Wed, 22 November 2023 06:07 Go to previous messageGo to next message
tardigrade81  is currently offline tardigrade81
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Does anyone truly believe we can win this game?

I don’t



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 Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Carolina (Game #18) [message #827432 is a reply to message #827431 ]
Wed, 22 November 2023 09:26 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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tardigrade81 wrote on Wed, 22 November 2023 06:07

Does anyone truly believe we can win this game?

I don’t


Oh ye of little faith. We can't lose them all!

The team's ready for a big win. I think they'll take this one and the Washington game.



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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 Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Carolina (Game #18) [message #827433 is a reply to message #827431 ]
Wed, 22 November 2023 09:28 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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I have no idea anymore. McD and Leon could go off, you'd think at some point they will but I am not expecting it.

One thing I am pretty sure about. McLeod will continue to be invisible I really thought he would take a step. It came down to him or Bjugstad and I get why you take McLeod but they made the wrong call.



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 Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Carolina (Game #18) [message #827434 is a reply to message #827433 ]
Wed, 22 November 2023 10:43 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Dragon_Matt  is currently offline Dragon_Matt
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Kostin too. I was on the 'keep McLeod' train too simply as he's a center over a wing... but he's having his worst year on the dot (45%) AND has only 3 assists.
Bjugstad wanted to go home to Phoenix. We knew he wasn't coming back since his family didn't come to Edmonton with him. Kostin would have been the better pick to stay and might have done just as well on faceoffs.



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 Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Carolina (Game #18) [message #827435 is a reply to message #827434 ]
Wed, 22 November 2023 10:47 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Dragon_Matt wrote on Wed, 22 November 2023 10:43

Kostin too. I was on the 'keep McLeod' train too simply as he's a center over a wing... but he's having his worst year on the dot (45%) AND has only 3 assists.
Bjugstad wanted to go home to Phoenix. We knew he wasn't coming back since his family didn't come to Edmonton with him. Kostin would have been the better pick to stay and might have done just as well on faceoffs.

Kostin doesn't play center and he's got 1 goal, 2 pts in 14 games. I wanted Kostin back, not for 2mill.



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 Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Carolina (Game #18) [message #827436 is a reply to message #827435 ]
Wed, 22 November 2023 11:16 Go to previous messageGo to next message
nullterm  is currently offline nullterm
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RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 22 November 2023 09:47

Dragon_Matt wrote on Wed, 22 November 2023 10:43

Kostin too. I was on the 'keep McLeod' train too simply as he's a center over a wing... but he's having his worst year on the dot (45%) AND has only 3 assists.
Bjugstad wanted to go home to Phoenix. We knew he wasn't coming back since his family didn't come to Edmonton with him. Kostin would have been the better pick to stay and might have done just as well on faceoffs.

Kostin doesn't play center and he's got 1 goal, 2 pts in 14 games. I wanted Kostin back, not for 2mill.

Better deal than Brown at 0 points for $4 million



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 Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Carolina (Game #18) [message #827437 is a reply to message #827436 ]
Wed, 22 November 2023 11:26 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Dragon_Matt  is currently offline Dragon_Matt
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he also hits... where McLeod VERY clearly does not. (and Kostin has 1 faceoff taken with 1 win... 100%!!!!)



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 Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Carolina (Game #18) [message #827439 is a reply to message #827437 ]
Wed, 22 November 2023 11:33 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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Dragon_Matt wrote on Wed, 22 November 2023 11:26

he also hits... where McLeod VERY clearly does not. (and Kostin has 1 faceoff taken with 1 win... 100%!!!!)



Hits aren't worth a lot of cap space.

Over there on the twitterX machine, Old Man Matty is basically cribbing notes from RDOF. Taking shots at McLeod and Bouchard this morning. He wants to bust #2 down to the third pairing...which I suppose would mean playing Desharnais up on the first or second???



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 Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Carolina (Game #18) [message #827438 is a reply to message #827436 ]
Wed, 22 November 2023 11:33 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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nullterm wrote on Wed, 22 November 2023 11:16

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 22 November 2023 09:47

Dragon_Matt wrote on Wed, 22 November 2023 10:43

Kostin too. I was on the 'keep McLeod' train too simply as he's a center over a wing... but he's having his worst year on the dot (45%) AND has only 3 assists.
Bjugstad wanted to go home to Phoenix. We knew he wasn't coming back since his family didn't come to Edmonton with him. Kostin would have been the better pick to stay and might have done just as well on faceoffs.

Kostin doesn't play center and he's got 1 goal, 2 pts in 14 games. I wanted Kostin back, not for 2mill.

Better deal than Brown at 0 points for $4 million

I think Brown overall as a player is much better and will probably end up scoring a lot more this year but right now, you are right, it hasn't worked out at all.

I don't think any of the bets the Oilers took have worked out and I felt the bets were good ones.

- They bet on McLeod taking a step and solidifying himself as a good 3rd line center. There were things in his game I wanted him to improve on but I thought he could easily do it. It hasn't happened and he's regressed so far. He has no goals in his last 33 games played since last year. 1 goal in his last 46.

- They bet on Bouchard taking a step as a dman. I thought offensively he was poised to take a step forward. Defensively, I thought after his playoffs, the light clicked on and he figured out how to just be average defensively, which is all they need. I think offensively he's improved but his defensive game has clearly taken a step back.

- They bet on Holloway being a solid 3rd liner. I thought he would, especially after his preseason. It's preseason but he was fantastic in every game. I thought he didn't take a step when the season started and was only just showing signs that maybe he was figuring it out before getting hurt.

- They bet on Campbell bouncing back. I never saw him as a elite goalie but I thought he was capable of returning to career averages which would put him as a mid range goalie. To be worse, means he's out of the league. Well he's out of the league right now.

- They bet on Skinner to just continue in as he was last year. He got nominated as rookie of the year but numbers wise compared to the rest of the league, he was middle of the pack. He had a.914 and 2.75 GA. Those are solid numbers but not spectacular. To start the year, he fell back.

-I think they banked on Brown taking a little time to get going but be solid for them and solidify their top 6. He started slow. I thought his last 2 games he was really coming on and about to break out. Then he got hurt again. THere is still time for him to recover but so far, the bet hasn't worked.

Every team takes chances on guys, some work out, some don't. But to have none of them work out is shocking especially since most of them seemed like fairly safe bets.

[Updated on: Wed, 22 November 2023 11:55]


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 Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Carolina (Game #18) [message #827440 is a reply to message #827438 ]
Wed, 22 November 2023 11:42 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 22 November 2023 11:33

nullterm wrote on Wed, 22 November 2023 11:16

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 22 November 2023 09:47

Dragon_Matt wrote on Wed, 22 November 2023 10:43

Kostin too. I was on the 'keep McLeod' train too simply as he's a center over a wing... but he's having his worst year on the dot (45%) AND has only 3 assists.
Bjugstad wanted to go home to Phoenix. We knew he wasn't coming back since his family didn't come to Edmonton with him. Kostin would have been the better pick to stay and might have done just as well on faceoffs.

Kostin doesn't play center and he's got 1 goal, 2 pts in 14 games. I wanted Kostin back, not for 2mill.

Better deal than Brown at 0 points for $4 million

I think Brown overall as a player is much better and will probably end up scoring a lot more this year but right now, you are right, it hasn't worked out at all.


I think any confidence in Brown playing worlds better is misplaced. Anyone seen any spark of life out of that player the entire season? He's only scored over 40 points once in his career and that was pre-Covid. He is injury prone and likely to miss a bunch more time at some point this season (last full season was 2018-19). And it doesn't look like taking almost all last year off did any wonders for his game.

I think best case he might be 20-25 points now. Even that seems a stretch though.



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 Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Carolina (Game #18) [message #827441 is a reply to message #827440 ]
Wed, 22 November 2023 11:55 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Dragon_Matt  is currently offline Dragon_Matt
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Bouchard has not been playing up to par, neither has Nurse. I think they may be having the hardest time of any of our D with the new defensive system, which I think the overhaul was also an overreaction of coaching. However, playing them less is not going to make them better. They're also a better bet against other teams top lines than Desharnais (as much as I do like him). He needs to work on his footspeed to have a hope in hell against other teams top competition.

Also, everytime Brown comes up I get mad. Career high 40 points came years ago, coming off a 4 game season ended with knee surgery... Why 10 games for that GD bonus? make it 40 games if he's so sure he'll bounce back. Make it 10 goals! AGGGH
the guy might still end up in the minors the way he's playing. I'd rather have Lavoie back in than him. Can you imagine if we have 8 mil of cap space in the AHL next year?

[Updated on: Wed, 22 November 2023 12:00]


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 Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Carolina (Game #18) [message #827442 is a reply to message #827441 ]
Wed, 22 November 2023 12:38 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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Dragon_Matt wrote on Wed, 22 November 2023 11:55

Bouchard has not been playing up to par, neither has Nurse. I think they may be having the hardest time of any of our D with the new defensive system, which I think the overhaul was also an overreaction of coaching. However, playing them less is not going to make them better. They're also a better bet against other teams top lines than Desharnais (as much as I do like him). He needs to work on his footspeed to have a hope in hell against other teams top competition.

Also, everytime Brown comes up I get mad. Career high 40 points came years ago, coming off a 4 game season ended with knee surgery... Why 10 games for that GD bonus? make it 40 games if he's so sure he'll bounce back. Make it 10 goals! AGGGH
the guy might still end up in the minors the way he's playing. I'd rather have Lavoie back in than him. Can you imagine if we have 8 mil of cap space in the AHL next year?


Asking Desharnais to not be slow is asking a leopard to change his spots. He's a borderline NHLer at best. The team likes that he's big, but he's so limited mobility-wise that he's always going to end up on the wrong side of highlights. It also means that you can never really expect to see him dishing out a lot of big hits, because he's got no ability to get back in to the play if he commits himself to making contact.

If Woodcroft made any mistake this year, it was telling the world he was re-jigging the defensive system. It may have not needed a full overhaul anyhow, but even if it did, talking it up doesn't set you up for success. It puts too much focus on it, and honestly it gives other teams a better chance to pre-adjust for what you are planning to do. The team did pretty well in the regular season last year, so what was more needed was the ability to adjust on the fly in a playoff series to the other team's game plan, as opposed to any new system.

Our defence corps as a whole has had a tough season. I think the Bouchard and Nurse criticisms are both overblown - Nurse because of his big contract, and Bouchard because he's an offensive defenceman with size who doesn't destroy people with hits and this is Edmonton where the media guys and a large portion of the fan base irrationally hates that kind of player. His game has areas of improvement to be sure, but to suggest he's a third pairing guy is ridiculous.



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 Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Carolina (Game #18) [message #827443 is a reply to message #827442 ]
Wed, 22 November 2023 12:58 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Dragon_Matt  is currently offline Dragon_Matt
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I disagree that Nurse and Bouchard's weakness this season is overblown. Nurse likely has more of a spotlight due to his contract, but there have been dozens of times this year where they each looked lost in our end. Watch next time an opposing player skates from behind the net to the corner. They stay on the man until he crosses the trapezoid line, then they will back off and hug the close post. It HAS to be part of the d-zone design... it's the only thing that makes any sense. But it exposes us SO much when we give NHL caliber forwards that time with no pressure in our end.
This has happened repeatedly, so like you said above, coaches pre-adapted their game plan knowing what we were going to do.



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 Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Carolina (Game #18) [message #827444 is a reply to message #827443 ]
Wed, 22 November 2023 13:00 Go to previous messageGo to next message
nullterm  is currently offline nullterm
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Dragon_Matt wrote on Wed, 22 November 2023 11:58

I disagree that Nurse and Bouchard's weakness this season is overblown. Nurse likely has more of a spotlight due to his contract, but there have been dozens of times this year where they each looked lost in our end. Watch next time an opposing player skates from behind the net to the corner. They stay on the man until he crosses the trapezoid line, then they will back off and hug the close post. It HAS to be part of the d-zone design... it's the only thing that makes any sense. But it exposes us SO much when we give NHL caliber forwards that time with no pressure in our end.
This has happened repeatedly, so like you said above, coaches pre-adapted their game plan knowing what we were going to do.


They are confused. When the transition from one guy to another happens, the other team knows to capitalize.

This video covers the breakdown and how it's being exploited.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ltd14FTiKhs




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 Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Carolina (Game #18) [message #827446 is a reply to message #827444 ]
Wed, 22 November 2023 13:53 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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nullterm wrote on Wed, 22 November 2023 13:00

Dragon_Matt wrote on Wed, 22 November 2023 11:58

I disagree that Nurse and Bouchard's weakness this season is overblown. Nurse likely has more of a spotlight due to his contract, but there have been dozens of times this year where they each looked lost in our end. Watch next time an opposing player skates from behind the net to the corner. They stay on the man until he crosses the trapezoid line, then they will back off and hug the close post. It HAS to be part of the d-zone design... it's the only thing that makes any sense. But it exposes us SO much when we give NHL caliber forwards that time with no pressure in our end.
This has happened repeatedly, so like you said above, coaches pre-adapted their game plan knowing what we were going to do.


They are confused. When the transition from one guy to another happens, the other team knows to capitalize.

This video covers the breakdown and how it's being exploited.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ltd14FTiKhs




The long and the short of this is that it's more of a system issue than a player issue.

We've seen that before - the infamous Eakins Swarm called for a two-man forecheck on attackers in the defensive zone. It left people wide open ALL THE TIME. As much as Eakins said that his defencemen didn't understand the basics of defending, it wasn't really them that was the issue, it was the system that he was putting in place.

We have no perfect defencemen. They all have development points. They all have areas of weaknesses, some of which they may not be as able to improve (Desharnais' skating, for instance). But the systemic flaws are system issues, not player issues. Either the coaches need to find a way to adapt the system, or they need to better teach the players how to make the system work.



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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 Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Carolina (Game #18) [message #827447 is a reply to message #827446 ]
Wed, 22 November 2023 14:16 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Adam wrote on Wed, 22 November 2023 12:53

nullterm wrote on Wed, 22 November 2023 13:00

Dragon_Matt wrote on Wed, 22 November 2023 11:58

I disagree that Nurse and Bouchard's weakness this season is overblown. Nurse likely has more of a spotlight due to his contract, but there have been dozens of times this year where they each looked lost in our end. Watch next time an opposing player skates from behind the net to the corner. They stay on the man until he crosses the trapezoid line, then they will back off and hug the close post. It HAS to be part of the d-zone design... it's the only thing that makes any sense. But it exposes us SO much when we give NHL caliber forwards that time with no pressure in our end.
This has happened repeatedly, so like you said above, coaches pre-adapted their game plan knowing what we were going to do.


They are confused. When the transition from one guy to another happens, the other team knows to capitalize.

This video covers the breakdown and how it's being exploited.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ltd14FTiKhs




The long and the short of this is that it's more of a system issue than a player issue.

We've seen that before - the infamous Eakins Swarm called for a two-man forecheck on attackers in the defensive zone. It left people wide open ALL THE TIME. As much as Eakins said that his defencemen didn't understand the basics of defending, it wasn't really them that was the issue, it was the system that he was putting in place.

We have no perfect defencemen. They all have development points. They all have areas of weaknesses, some of which they may not be as able to improve (Desharnais' skating, for instance). But the systemic flaws are system issues, not player issues. Either the coaches need to find a way to adapt the system, or they need to better teach the players how to make the system work.



100%. Hopefully Knobs is better able to adapt to the circumstances he has. If the system doesn't work with the players you have, you need a new system. Xs and Os are easier to replace than a $80 million roster. Woody hasn't seemed able to make the adjustment since the Knights crushed us.



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 Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Carolina (Game #18) [message #827448 is a reply to message #827447 ]
Wed, 22 November 2023 14:19 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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nullterm wrote on Wed, 22 November 2023 14:16


100%. Hopefully Knobs is better able to adapt to the circumstances he has. If the system doesn't work with the players you have, you need a new system. Xs and Os are easier to replace than a $80 million roster. Woody hasn't seemed able to make the adjustment since the Knights crushed us.


To be fair to Woody, look who he learned from! McLellan was always the worst for having good teams eliminated in the playoffs due to a complete unwillingness to adapt properly to an opponent's gameplan.



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 Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Carolina (Game #18) [message #827453 is a reply to message #827448 ]
Wed, 22 November 2023 15:54 Go to previous message
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Adam wrote on Wed, 22 November 2023 13:19

nullterm wrote on Wed, 22 November 2023 14:16


100%. Hopefully Knobs is better able to adapt to the circumstances he has. If the system doesn't work with the players you have, you need a new system. Xs and Os are easier to replace than a $80 million roster. Woody hasn't seemed able to make the adjustment since the Knights crushed us.


To be fair to Woody, look who he learned from! McLellan was always the worst for having good teams eliminated in the playoffs due to a complete unwillingness to adapt properly to an opponent's gameplan.


Exactly. Hope Knobs learned from guys who could read a situation.



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 Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Carolina (Game #18) [message #827445 is a reply to message #827443 ]
Wed, 22 November 2023 13:17 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Dragon_Matt wrote on Wed, 22 November 2023 12:58

I disagree that Nurse and Bouchard's weakness this season is overblown. Nurse likely has more of a spotlight due to his contract, but there have been dozens of times this year where they each looked lost in our end. Watch next time an opposing player skates from behind the net to the corner. They stay on the man until he crosses the trapezoid line, then they will back off and hug the close post. It HAS to be part of the d-zone design... it's the only thing that makes any sense. But it exposes us SO much when we give NHL caliber forwards that time with no pressure in our end.
This has happened repeatedly, so like you said above, coaches pre-adapted their game plan knowing what we were going to do.

I agree with you. No one is asking Bouchard to go beat the hell out of someone or knock guys into the 15th row, they just want him to play average defense.

It's utterly baffling why fans like Adam take up the position needing to defend Bouchard and attack others, saying they don't have hockey knowledge when a fan DARES to want Bouchard too:
- Hustle back for a puck when it gets turned over.
- Not do a pinch when it has next to zero chance of being successful.
- Tie up a man in front of the goal in your own zone.
- Covering a wide open guy who's standing in the slot.
- Going into a corner and battling hard for a puck instead of getting pushed off like he wasn't there.

All these things are what an NHL defenseman should just do automatically. Some guys do certain things better than others but no one is even asking him to be elite at ANY of those things, just be average. When there is a potential pinch opportunity, and the other player is closer to the puck, he can see you coming, you aren't in a great position and your chances are success are almost nothing, especially when you see all the forwards in the O zone in front of you so you have no one covering for you if you miss, don't take the pinch. Just back off. It's not a failure on Bouchard, doesn't mean you are asking him to stop being offensive. It's just playing the odds and playing smart.

So I don't understand why some see it as attack on Bouchard when he doesn't do what I listed off every single game, multiple times a game. Every player will have a bad night but when it happens over and over and over againg, there's a problem.

[Updated on: Wed, 22 November 2023 13:19]


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 Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Carolina (Game #18) [message #827450 is a reply to message #827436 ]
Wed, 22 November 2023 14:27 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
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nullterm wrote on Wed, 22 November 2023 11:16

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 22 November 2023 09:47

Dragon_Matt wrote on Wed, 22 November 2023 10:43

Kostin too. I was on the 'keep McLeod' train too simply as he's a center over a wing... but he's having his worst year on the dot (45%) AND has only 3 assists.
Bjugstad wanted to go home to Phoenix. We knew he wasn't coming back since his family didn't come to Edmonton with him. Kostin would have been the better pick to stay and might have done just as well on faceoffs.

Kostin doesn't play center and he's got 1 goal, 2 pts in 14 games. I wanted Kostin back, not for 2mill.

Better deal than Brown at 0 points for $4 million


McLeod probably has a career close to how things worked for Cogliano. He's a pretty smart player, skates really well. His offensive and finishing skills are limited, but he's going to be able to hang around and keep adding more elements to his game as he matures and be a useful 2-way player.

So yeah, if we follow the Cogs trend, it is about time for us to dump him for being so disappointing on the scoresheet. Cogs got a lot more good offensive time here because our team was so awful, so little handicap for McLeod vs Cogs as an Oiler. Cogs never did reproduce his point totals of his rookie year.



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