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 Re: Tyson Barrie Signs w/ Oilers [message #784898 is a reply to message #784892 ]
Tue, 11 May 2021 17:19 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Goose  is currently offline Goose
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RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 16:02

Goose wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 16:31


I'm coming at this from the perspective as to whether the Oilers should be considering signing Barrie or not. Based on what I've seen, I don't think they should, definitely not if the number is $7M. I don't even think they should do it at $5M if the term is more than 3 years. If you want to call that Barrie bashing, that's fine, and I get that the Oilers are doing well so people would rather focus on that but it's nothing personal against Tyson Barrie. He's definitely made the most of the situation he's been given so full credit to him there.

I think the sample size question on the PP is a fair one. Naturalstattrick has all of those breakdowns. McDavid has 181 minutes on the PP this year with Barrie and 46 minutes without Barrie. So sample sizes are not big. At the same time, if you had asked anyone where they thought that Barrie would have the biggest impact on the Oilers, they would have said on the PP. So the fact that McDavid scores more on the PP when Barrie isn't on the ice isn't a great sign.

At 5x5, part of the problem is that Barrie (and Nurse) play so much with McDavid that the other defencemen don't have a lot of time with him.

Here is the breakdown of the defencmen on the team and their minutes and scoring rates with McDavid 5x5:

Nurse: 652 min - 1.75pts/60 (a lot of those minutes are with Barrie also)
Barrie: 546min - 1.87pts/60
Bear: 174 min - 2.06pts/60
Larsson: 141 min - 0.00 pts/60
Russell: 116 min - 2.04 pts/60
Jones: 73 min - 1.63 pts/60

So to say that Barrie's scoring rates with McDavid are unprecedented, maybe that's true from an absolute perspective, but it's definitely not true from a scoring rate perspective this year. And is it fair to compare to any other year given that McDavid, at 5x5, is scoring at almost 0.5pts/60 higher this year than in any previous year (and 0.77pts/60 higher than he was last year)?

Would I like to see more minutes from Bear with McDavid to know whether that number is sustainable? Sure. But Kr55 has already talked about Barrie's 2nd assist rate. Notable that Bear's 2nd assist rate with McDavid is just over half that of Barrie's (0.69/60 vs 1.1/60). Personally, I would have no problem with Bear replacing Barrie as the top RHD in terms of minutes with McDavid, and I don't think the Oilers lose anything in that scenario. I think Bear is a better passer than Barrie, and I think he has a higher hockey IQ.

There's just nothing about Barrie's numbers that scream to me he's somehow unlocked anything with McDavid. Sure, they seem to be working fine together, but I give the lion's share of the credit to McDavid who is right in the middle of what is historically a forward's peak production years (I commented before about comparing Gretzky's points trajectory to where McDavid is), as opposed to Barrie.

Here's where I pulled the numbers for Bear and Barrie, you can play around with the filters to look at anyone else:

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason =20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&am p;am p;am p;am p;stdoi=std&rate=y&v=t&playerid=8478451

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason =20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&am p;am p;am p;am p;stdoi=std&rate=y&v=t&playerid=8475197

I totally do not get how some people like to completely discredit a "second assist" as if it's completely meaningless. I think it's utterly ridiculous.

The puck is in the Oilers zone. Barrie gets the puck, fires a tape to tape pass to whoever at the center line. That forward takes the puck into the offensive zone, fires a pass to the shooter and a goal is scored.

Does that breakout pass to not only get out of your zone but to start the play mean nothing? If that pass that is the "secondary assist" isn't made, the play does not happen. I don't mean to come off harsh but it's honestly one of the most ridiculous arguments I have seen and it's not just in here, I see it a ton. Of all the fan bases, I would think that Oilers fans of all fan bases would appreciate the "second assist" the most because how many years did we see the Oilers break out being the dman just fire it up the boards or off the glass and hope for the best. Now we have dman that can make an actual break out pass on the tape to our forward in stride to start an offensive rush and fans now scoff at the "secondary assist" that started the whole sequence.

Every time McD sends a pass on the PP to the point man, the point man shoots and a goal is scored by a tip or rebound, those same people scoffing at Barrie's "secondary assist" better be scoffing at McD's.


Nobody is discrediting 2nd assists or saying they're, "completely meaningless". However, it has been shown that 2nd assists are less repeatable, and therefore less likely to predict future performance than goals or 1st assists. That's not to say that they have zero predictive value, just less than the other two.

So if we're trying to predict whether Bear's scoring totals with McDavid would be repeatable next year if Barrie wasn't there, that's one factor to consider (TOI, competition and teammates would be others). The fact that Bear's 2nd assist rate with McDavid is low compared to Barrie's is one indication that if Bear were to increase his minutes with McDavid that it is more likely that he would be able to maintain a similar scoring rate than if he had a high 2nd assists rate this year, with the biggest caveat being that I think McDavid has a huge impact, so if he has a lesser year than this year, Bear's numbers will be down.



Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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 Re: Tyson Barrie Signs w/ Oilers [message #784903 is a reply to message #784898 ]
Tue, 11 May 2021 17:52 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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Goose wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 17:19


Nobody is discrediting 2nd assists or saying they're, "completely meaningless". However, it has been shown that 2nd assists are less repeatable, and therefore less likely to predict future performance than goals or 1st assists. That's not to say that they have zero predictive value, just less than the other two.

So if we're trying to predict whether Bear's scoring totals with McDavid would be repeatable next year if Barrie wasn't there, that's one factor to consider (TOI, competition and teammates would be others). The fact that Bear's 2nd assist rate with McDavid is low compared to Barrie's is one indication that if Bear were to increase his minutes with McDavid that it is more likely that he would be able to maintain a similar scoring rate than if he had a high 2nd assists rate this year, with the biggest caveat being that I think McDavid has a huge impact, so if he has a lesser year than this year, Bear's numbers will be down.


Worth noting - Bear played 740 minutes this year, and just under 180 with McDavid. In his time with McDavid, he scored 6 points. In his time with everyone else, he has 2. It's pretty stark the impact McDavid can have (and how having other lines that don't score anything impacts everyone else).



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 Re: Tyson Barrie Signs w/ Oilers [message #784907 is a reply to message #784903 ]
Tue, 11 May 2021 17:57 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
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Adam wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 17:52

Goose wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 17:19


Nobody is discrediting 2nd assists or saying they're, "completely meaningless". However, it has been shown that 2nd assists are less repeatable, and therefore less likely to predict future performance than goals or 1st assists. That's not to say that they have zero predictive value, just less than the other two.

So if we're trying to predict whether Bear's scoring totals with McDavid would be repeatable next year if Barrie wasn't there, that's one factor to consider (TOI, competition and teammates would be others). The fact that Bear's 2nd assist rate with McDavid is low compared to Barrie's is one indication that if Bear were to increase his minutes with McDavid that it is more likely that he would be able to maintain a similar scoring rate than if he had a high 2nd assists rate this year, with the biggest caveat being that I think McDavid has a huge impact, so if he has a lesser year than this year, Bear's numbers will be down.


Worth noting - Bear played 740 minutes this year, and just under 180 with McDavid. In his time with McDavid, he scored 6 points. In his time with everyone else, he has 2. It's pretty stark the impact McDavid can have (and how having other lines that don't score anything impacts everyone else).


For comparison sake.

5v5 stats:

Bear with McDavid - 175 minutes
Goals/60 - 0.69 (2)
1stA/60 - 0.69 (2)
2ndA/60 - 0.69 (2)
Points/60 - 2.06 (6)


Barrie with McDavid - 545 minutes
Goals/60 - 0.33 (3)
1stA/60 - 0.44 (4)
2ndA/60 - 1.1 (10)
Points/60 - 1.87 (17)





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- Lowe, 2013

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- MacT, 2015

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 Re: Tyson Barrie Signs w/ Oilers [message #784899 is a reply to message #784892 ]
Tue, 11 May 2021 17:20 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
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RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 17:02

Goose wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 16:31

mightyreasoner wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 11:33

I saw those OilersNerdAlert numbers last night, but I'm taking them with a little grain of salt too. I'm not sure we're really getting a clear picture with the data he presented. He came in with a bias and has presented as such, IMO.

For example, how many minutes has McDavid played without Barrie on the powerplay? I'm trying to find the data, but my guess is the sample size is a lot smaller, and that they've played a lot more together... which certainly could impact the data. Smaller samples can exaggerate differences or similarities that change with time.

Same could really be said for smaller sample size of data with other defenseman he has played with since to my eye Barrie and Nurse have played a lot more with McDavid than others (which also begs the question how Nurse compares. Do we dump him also?). McDavid needs to have a few good shifts with a few defesemen he normally doesn't play with to really shift that data. I'd love to see total minutes played with each of the defensman if that is available.

To be honest, I do find the Barrie-bashing annoying a bit. Only in Edmonton (and maybe Toronto) do you have the top two scorers in the NHL, the top defenseman in scoring, they are dramatically outscoring opposition when on the ice, and playing them together is controversial. I'd hate to see what some people would have done to Paul Coffey.

The top of the Oilers lineup (McDavid, Draisaitl, Nurse, Barrie, Smith) is producing at a rate we haven't seen since the 1980s. I've never watched them produce at this rate, so finding the rainy cloud in a blue sky isn't really for me right now.

And I do believe this - if any defenseman could do what Barrie has done this year, I imagine they would have. He is producing points at nearly double the rate any other defenseman McDavid has played with in his career has. McDavid is having a career year, and no doubt all this is linked... but perhaps Barrie getting the puck to McDavid with more frequency shouldn't be entirely dismissed out of hand.

I'm not even suggesting Barrie is incredible or this really complete defenseman. But despite how OilersNerdAlert presented things, he seems to work with well with McDavid, and I think we will lose some offensive production if Barrie leaves. If that's the case, you are actually probably hoping that the Oilers allow LESS goals than that they score MORE goals.

I could be wrong, but I think sample sizes need to be questions when looking at that data. If someone has the minutes played with each defenseman, that could be interesting, and if they are close, would be more of an apples to apples comparison.


I'm coming at this from the perspective as to whether the Oilers should be considering signing Barrie or not. Based on what I've seen, I don't think they should, definitely not if the number is $7M. I don't even think they should do it at $5M if the term is more than 3 years. If you want to call that Barrie bashing, that's fine, and I get that the Oilers are doing well so people would rather focus on that but it's nothing personal against Tyson Barrie. He's definitely made the most of the situation he's been given so full credit to him there.

I think the sample size question on the PP is a fair one. Naturalstattrick has all of those breakdowns. McDavid has 181 minutes on the PP this year with Barrie and 46 minutes without Barrie. So sample sizes are not big. At the same time, if you had asked anyone where they thought that Barrie would have the biggest impact on the Oilers, they would have said on the PP. So the fact that McDavid scores more on the PP when Barrie isn't on the ice isn't a great sign.

At 5x5, part of the problem is that Barrie (and Nurse) play so much with McDavid that the other defencemen don't have a lot of time with him.

Here is the breakdown of the defencmen on the team and their minutes and scoring rates with McDavid 5x5:

Nurse: 652 min - 1.75pts/60 (a lot of those minutes are with Barrie also)
Barrie: 546min - 1.87pts/60
Bear: 174 min - 2.06pts/60
Larsson: 141 min - 0.00 pts/60
Russell: 116 min - 2.04 pts/60
Jones: 73 min - 1.63 pts/60

So to say that Barrie's scoring rates with McDavid are unprecedented, maybe that's true from an absolute perspective, but it's definitely not true from a scoring rate perspective this year. And is it fair to compare to any other year given that McDavid, at 5x5, is scoring at almost 0.5pts/60 higher this year than in any previous year (and 0.77pts/60 higher than he was last year)?

Would I like to see more minutes from Bear with McDavid to know whether that number is sustainable? Sure. But Kr55 has already talked about Barrie's 2nd assist rate. Notable that Bear's 2nd assist rate with McDavid is just over half that of Barrie's (0.69/60 vs 1.1/60). Personally, I would have no problem with Bear replacing Barrie as the top RHD in terms of minutes with McDavid, and I don't think the Oilers lose anything in that scenario. I think Bear is a better passer than Barrie, and I think he has a higher hockey IQ.

There's just nothing about Barrie's numbers that scream to me he's somehow unlocked anything with McDavid. Sure, they seem to be working fine together, but I give the lion's share of the credit to McDavid who is right in the middle of what is historically a forward's peak production years (I commented before about comparing Gretzky's points trajectory to where McDavid is), as opposed to Barrie.

Here's where I pulled the numbers for Bear and Barrie, you can play around with the filters to look at anyone else:

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason =20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;stdoi=std&rate=y&v=t&playerid=8478451

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason =20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;stdoi=std&rate=y&v=t&playerid=8475197

I totally do not get how some people like to completely discredit a "second assist" as if it's completely meaningless. I think it's utterly ridiculous.

The puck is in the Oilers zone. Barrie gets the puck, fires a tape to tape pass to whoever at the center line. That forward takes the puck into the offensive zone, fires a pass to the shooter and a goal is scored.

Does that breakout pass to not only get out of your zone but to start the play mean nothing? If that pass that is the "secondary assist" isn't made, the play does not happen. I don't mean to come off harsh but it's honestly one of the most ridiculous arguments I have seen and it's not just in here, I see it a ton. Of all the fan bases, I would think that Oilers fans of all fan bases would appreciate the "second assist" the most because how many years did we see the Oilers break out being the dman just fire it up the boards or off the glass and hope for the best. Now we have dman that can make an actual break out pass on the tape to our forward in stride to start an offensive rush and fans now scoff at the "secondary assist" that started the whole sequence.

Every time McD sends a pass on the PP to the point man, the point man shoots and a goal is scored by a tip or rebound, those same people scoffing at Barrie's "secondary assist" better be scoffing at McD's.


Don't think it's an insult to 2nd assists or the player. Just, typically 2nd assists are very noisy stats. Barrie has always had ~0.70 2nd assists/60. This year he's leading all D with 1.34. Cale Makar the league leader in primary points/60 by D has 0.78 2nd assists per 60 mins.

Just something to consider is all. It's a noisy stat. It does reflect your skill to be involved in plays, but it also can be reflective of a high quality of teammates able to make those 2 extra plays leading to a goal after your last touch, something that may not carry when you play with lesser linemates, and also something that might be handed to someone else able to get your ice time with those quality guys.

Even with quality guys, there is a bit of luck involved with being able to rack up 2nd assists at that rate as a D. No one was over 1 2nd assist/60 last year. No joke, there are 0 dmen since the 2007/2008 season (as far back as naturalstattrick goes) that have managed Barrie's rate of 2nd assists in all situations that played at least 300 minutes of ice time in the season. He's having a generational 2nd assist year :)



"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

"In Brad we trust"
- All Oilers fans, Present Day

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 Re: Tyson Barrie Signs w/ Oilers [message #784904 is a reply to message #784899 ]
Tue, 11 May 2021 17:52 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mightyreasoner  is currently offline mightyreasoner
Messages: 508
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Kr55 wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 17:20

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 17:02

Goose wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 16:31

mightyreasoner wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 11:33

I saw those OilersNerdAlert numbers last night, but I'm taking them with a little grain of salt too. I'm not sure we're really getting a clear picture with the data he presented. He came in with a bias and has presented as such, IMO.

For example, how many minutes has McDavid played without Barrie on the powerplay? I'm trying to find the data, but my guess is the sample size is a lot smaller, and that they've played a lot more together... which certainly could impact the data. Smaller samples can exaggerate differences or similarities that change with time.

Same could really be said for smaller sample size of data with other defenseman he has played with since to my eye Barrie and Nurse have played a lot more with McDavid than others (which also begs the question how Nurse compares. Do we dump him also?). McDavid needs to have a few good shifts with a few defesemen he normally doesn't play with to really shift that data. I'd love to see total minutes played with each of the defensman if that is available.

To be honest, I do find the Barrie-bashing annoying a bit. Only in Edmonton (and maybe Toronto) do you have the top two scorers in the NHL, the top defenseman in scoring, they are dramatically outscoring opposition when on the ice, and playing them together is controversial. I'd hate to see what some people would have done to Paul Coffey.

The top of the Oilers lineup (McDavid, Draisaitl, Nurse, Barrie, Smith) is producing at a rate we haven't seen since the 1980s. I've never watched them produce at this rate, so finding the rainy cloud in a blue sky isn't really for me right now.

And I do believe this - if any defenseman could do what Barrie has done this year, I imagine they would have. He is producing points at nearly double the rate any other defenseman McDavid has played with in his career has. McDavid is having a career year, and no doubt all this is linked... but perhaps Barrie getting the puck to McDavid with more frequency shouldn't be entirely dismissed out of hand.

I'm not even suggesting Barrie is incredible or this really complete defenseman. But despite how OilersNerdAlert presented things, he seems to work with well with McDavid, and I think we will lose some offensive production if Barrie leaves. If that's the case, you are actually probably hoping that the Oilers allow LESS goals than that they score MORE goals.

I could be wrong, but I think sample sizes need to be questions when looking at that data. If someone has the minutes played with each defenseman, that could be interesting, and if they are close, would be more of an apples to apples comparison.


I'm coming at this from the perspective as to whether the Oilers should be considering signing Barrie or not. Based on what I've seen, I don't think they should, definitely not if the number is $7M. I don't even think they should do it at $5M if the term is more than 3 years. If you want to call that Barrie bashing, that's fine, and I get that the Oilers are doing well so people would rather focus on that but it's nothing personal against Tyson Barrie. He's definitely made the most of the situation he's been given so full credit to him there.

I think the sample size question on the PP is a fair one. Naturalstattrick has all of those breakdowns. McDavid has 181 minutes on the PP this year with Barrie and 46 minutes without Barrie. So sample sizes are not big. At the same time, if you had asked anyone where they thought that Barrie would have the biggest impact on the Oilers, they would have said on the PP. So the fact that McDavid scores more on the PP when Barrie isn't on the ice isn't a great sign.

At 5x5, part of the problem is that Barrie (and Nurse) play so much with McDavid that the other defencemen don't have a lot of time with him.

Here is the breakdown of the defencmen on the team and their minutes and scoring rates with McDavid 5x5:

Nurse: 652 min - 1.75pts/60 (a lot of those minutes are with Barrie also)
Barrie: 546min - 1.87pts/60
Bear: 174 min - 2.06pts/60
Larsson: 141 min - 0.00 pts/60
Russell: 116 min - 2.04 pts/60
Jones: 73 min - 1.63 pts/60

So to say that Barrie's scoring rates with McDavid are unprecedented, maybe that's true from an absolute perspective, but it's definitely not true from a scoring rate perspective this year. And is it fair to compare to any other year given that McDavid, at 5x5, is scoring at almost 0.5pts/60 higher this year than in any previous year (and 0.77pts/60 higher than he was last year)?

Would I like to see more minutes from Bear with McDavid to know whether that number is sustainable? Sure. But Kr55 has already talked about Barrie's 2nd assist rate. Notable that Bear's 2nd assist rate with McDavid is just over half that of Barrie's (0.69/60 vs 1.1/60). Personally, I would have no problem with Bear replacing Barrie as the top RHD in terms of minutes with McDavid, and I don't think the Oilers lose anything in that scenario. I think Bear is a better passer than Barrie, and I think he has a higher hockey IQ.

There's just nothing about Barrie's numbers that scream to me he's somehow unlocked anything with McDavid. Sure, they seem to be working fine together, but I give the lion's share of the credit to McDavid who is right in the middle of what is historically a forward's peak production years (I commented before about comparing Gretzky's points trajectory to where McDavid is), as opposed to Barrie.

Here's where I pulled the numbers for Bear and Barrie, you can play around with the filters to look at anyone else:

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason =20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;stdoi=std&rate=y&v=t&playerid=8478451

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason =20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;stdoi=std&rate=y&v=t&playerid=8475197

I totally do not get how some people like to completely discredit a "second assist" as if it's completely meaningless. I think it's utterly ridiculous.

The puck is in the Oilers zone. Barrie gets the puck, fires a tape to tape pass to whoever at the center line. That forward takes the puck into the offensive zone, fires a pass to the shooter and a goal is scored.

Does that breakout pass to not only get out of your zone but to start the play mean nothing? If that pass that is the "secondary assist" isn't made, the play does not happen. I don't mean to come off harsh but it's honestly one of the most ridiculous arguments I have seen and it's not just in here, I see it a ton. Of all the fan bases, I would think that Oilers fans of all fan bases would appreciate the "second assist" the most because how many years did we see the Oilers break out being the dman just fire it up the boards or off the glass and hope for the best. Now we have dman that can make an actual break out pass on the tape to our forward in stride to start an offensive rush and fans now scoff at the "secondary assist" that started the whole sequence.

Every time McD sends a pass on the PP to the point man, the point man shoots and a goal is scored by a tip or rebound, those same people scoffing at Barrie's "secondary assist" better be scoffing at McD's.


Don't think it's an insult to 2nd assists or the player. Just, typically 2nd assists are very noisy stats. Barrie has always had ~0.70 2nd assists/60. This year he's leading all D with 1.34. Cale Makar the league leader in primary points/60 by D has 0.78 2nd assists per 60 mins.

Just something to consider is all. It's a noisy stat. It does reflect your skill to be involved in plays, but it also can be reflective of a high quality of teammates able to make those 2 extra plays leading to a goal after your last touch, something that may not carry when you play with lesser linemates, and also something that might be handed to someone else able to get your ice time with those quality guys.

Even with quality guys, there is a bit of luck involved with being able to rack up 2nd assists at that rate as a D. No one was over 1 2nd assist/60 last year. No joke, there are 0 dmen since the 2007/2008 season (as far back as naturalstattrick goes) that have managed Barrie's rate of 2nd assists in all situations that played at least 300 minutes of ice time in the season. He's having a generational 2nd assist year :)


To be honest, the stacked second assist rate doesn't shock me. In my mind, that's kind of what we all wanted him to do - get the puck to McDavid with speed and open ice, and let McDavid do what he does. I don't want Barrie to be the primary playmaker, not when we have McDavid. What I do want is someone very good at feeding McDavid.

Since McDavid has an insane number of primary assists, if Barrie is feeding him first, that sort of checks out. Is it sustainable? Would he repeat next year on the Oilers? I'm not sure, but it wouldn't shock me if it would remain pretty high. The Oilers are a team that score and attack a LOT off the rush... this isn't really a team that scores a ton off the cycle.

I WOULD expect that Barrie's point total and second assist total would drop with a lesser player, because McDavid is the engine that drives this thing, and drives his numbers. But I also think there is value in having that player who does that for the Oilers, and I don't think they've had a better puck mover during McDavid's time here. I like Bear and Bouchard fine, but I don't think either has necessarily demonstrated that yet, though perhaps they could.



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 Re: Tyson Barrie Signs w/ Oilers [message #784909 is a reply to message #784904 ]
Tue, 11 May 2021 18:09 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
Messages: 9355
Registered: May 2002
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mightyreasoner wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 17:52

Kr55 wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 17:20

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 17:02

Goose wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 16:31

mightyreasoner wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 11:33

I saw those OilersNerdAlert numbers last night, but I'm taking them with a little grain of salt too. I'm not sure we're really getting a clear picture with the data he presented. He came in with a bias and has presented as such, IMO.

For example, how many minutes has McDavid played without Barrie on the powerplay? I'm trying to find the data, but my guess is the sample size is a lot smaller, and that they've played a lot more together... which certainly could impact the data. Smaller samples can exaggerate differences or similarities that change with time.

Same could really be said for smaller sample size of data with other defenseman he has played with since to my eye Barrie and Nurse have played a lot more with McDavid than others (which also begs the question how Nurse compares. Do we dump him also?). McDavid needs to have a few good shifts with a few defesemen he normally doesn't play with to really shift that data. I'd love to see total minutes played with each of the defensman if that is available.

To be honest, I do find the Barrie-bashing annoying a bit. Only in Edmonton (and maybe Toronto) do you have the top two scorers in the NHL, the top defenseman in scoring, they are dramatically outscoring opposition when on the ice, and playing them together is controversial. I'd hate to see what some people would have done to Paul Coffey.

The top of the Oilers lineup (McDavid, Draisaitl, Nurse, Barrie, Smith) is producing at a rate we haven't seen since the 1980s. I've never watched them produce at this rate, so finding the rainy cloud in a blue sky isn't really for me right now.

And I do believe this - if any defenseman could do what Barrie has done this year, I imagine they would have. He is producing points at nearly double the rate any other defenseman McDavid has played with in his career has. McDavid is having a career year, and no doubt all this is linked... but perhaps Barrie getting the puck to McDavid with more frequency shouldn't be entirely dismissed out of hand.

I'm not even suggesting Barrie is incredible or this really complete defenseman. But despite how OilersNerdAlert presented things, he seems to work with well with McDavid, and I think we will lose some offensive production if Barrie leaves. If that's the case, you are actually probably hoping that the Oilers allow LESS goals than that they score MORE goals.

I could be wrong, but I think sample sizes need to be questions when looking at that data. If someone has the minutes played with each defenseman, that could be interesting, and if they are close, would be more of an apples to apples comparison.


I'm coming at this from the perspective as to whether the Oilers should be considering signing Barrie or not. Based on what I've seen, I don't think they should, definitely not if the number is $7M. I don't even think they should do it at $5M if the term is more than 3 years. If you want to call that Barrie bashing, that's fine, and I get that the Oilers are doing well so people would rather focus on that but it's nothing personal against Tyson Barrie. He's definitely made the most of the situation he's been given so full credit to him there.

I think the sample size question on the PP is a fair one. Naturalstattrick has all of those breakdowns. McDavid has 181 minutes on the PP this year with Barrie and 46 minutes without Barrie. So sample sizes are not big. At the same time, if you had asked anyone where they thought that Barrie would have the biggest impact on the Oilers, they would have said on the PP. So the fact that McDavid scores more on the PP when Barrie isn't on the ice isn't a great sign.

At 5x5, part of the problem is that Barrie (and Nurse) play so much with McDavid that the other defencemen don't have a lot of time with him.

Here is the breakdown of the defencmen on the team and their minutes and scoring rates with McDavid 5x5:

Nurse: 652 min - 1.75pts/60 (a lot of those minutes are with Barrie also)
Barrie: 546min - 1.87pts/60
Bear: 174 min - 2.06pts/60
Larsson: 141 min - 0.00 pts/60
Russell: 116 min - 2.04 pts/60
Jones: 73 min - 1.63 pts/60

So to say that Barrie's scoring rates with McDavid are unprecedented, maybe that's true from an absolute perspective, but it's definitely not true from a scoring rate perspective this year. And is it fair to compare to any other year given that McDavid, at 5x5, is scoring at almost 0.5pts/60 higher this year than in any previous year (and 0.77pts/60 higher than he was last year)?

Would I like to see more minutes from Bear with McDavid to know whether that number is sustainable? Sure. But Kr55 has already talked about Barrie's 2nd assist rate. Notable that Bear's 2nd assist rate with McDavid is just over half that of Barrie's (0.69/60 vs 1.1/60). Personally, I would have no problem with Bear replacing Barrie as the top RHD in terms of minutes with McDavid, and I don't think the Oilers lose anything in that scenario. I think Bear is a better passer than Barrie, and I think he has a higher hockey IQ.

There's just nothing about Barrie's numbers that scream to me he's somehow unlocked anything with McDavid. Sure, they seem to be working fine together, but I give the lion's share of the credit to McDavid who is right in the middle of what is historically a forward's peak production years (I commented before about comparing Gretzky's points trajectory to where McDavid is), as opposed to Barrie.

Here's where I pulled the numbers for Bear and Barrie, you can play around with the filters to look at anyone else:

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason =20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;stdoi=std&rate=y&v=t&playerid=8478451

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason =20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;stdoi=std&rate=y&v=t&playerid=8475197

I totally do not get how some people like to completely discredit a "second assist" as if it's completely meaningless. I think it's utterly ridiculous.

The puck is in the Oilers zone. Barrie gets the puck, fires a tape to tape pass to whoever at the center line. That forward takes the puck into the offensive zone, fires a pass to the shooter and a goal is scored.

Does that breakout pass to not only get out of your zone but to start the play mean nothing? If that pass that is the "secondary assist" isn't made, the play does not happen. I don't mean to come off harsh but it's honestly one of the most ridiculous arguments I have seen and it's not just in here, I see it a ton. Of all the fan bases, I would think that Oilers fans of all fan bases would appreciate the "second assist" the most because how many years did we see the Oilers break out being the dman just fire it up the boards or off the glass and hope for the best. Now we have dman that can make an actual break out pass on the tape to our forward in stride to start an offensive rush and fans now scoff at the "secondary assist" that started the whole sequence.

Every time McD sends a pass on the PP to the point man, the point man shoots and a goal is scored by a tip or rebound, those same people scoffing at Barrie's "secondary assist" better be scoffing at McD's.


Don't think it's an insult to 2nd assists or the player. Just, typically 2nd assists are very noisy stats. Barrie has always had ~0.70 2nd assists/60. This year he's leading all D with 1.34. Cale Makar the league leader in primary points/60 by D has 0.78 2nd assists per 60 mins.

Just something to consider is all. It's a noisy stat. It does reflect your skill to be involved in plays, but it also can be reflective of a high quality of teammates able to make those 2 extra plays leading to a goal after your last touch, something that may not carry when you play with lesser linemates, and also something that might be handed to someone else able to get your ice time with those quality guys.

Even with quality guys, there is a bit of luck involved with being able to rack up 2nd assists at that rate as a D. No one was over 1 2nd assist/60 last year. No joke, there are 0 dmen since the 2007/2008 season (as far back as naturalstattrick goes) that have managed Barrie's rate of 2nd assists in all situations that played at least 300 minutes of ice time in the season. He's having a generational 2nd assist year :)


To be honest, the stacked second assist rate doesn't shock me. In my mind, that's kind of what we all wanted him to do - get the puck to McDavid with speed and open ice, and let McDavid do what he does. I don't want Barrie to be the primary playmaker, not when we have McDavid. What I do want is someone very good at feeding McDavid.

Since McDavid has an insane number of primary assists, if Barrie is feeding him first, that sort of checks out. Is it sustainable? Would he repeat next year on the Oilers? I'm not sure, but it wouldn't shock me if it would remain pretty high. The Oilers are a team that score and attack a LOT off the rush... this isn't really a team that scores a ton off the cycle.

I WOULD expect that Barrie's point total and second assist total would drop with a lesser player, because McDavid is the engine that drives this thing, and drives his numbers. But I also think there is value in having that player who does that for the Oilers, and I don't think they've had a better puck mover during McDavid's time here. I like Bear and Bouchard fine, but I don't think either has necessarily demonstrated that yet, though perhaps they could.


Just trying to illustrate how the result is kind of an outlier, over the last 14 years even, accross all the D that got to play with prime Crosby and Ovechkin and playing for crazy scoring Tampa teams.

I wouldn't want to say I don't think Barrie has great offensive instincts, he most definitely does. Is his skillset so unique that we have to overpay, probably using all the cap space we were banking on to finally fill out our lineup, and deal with his declining years to hold onto it. I'm just not able to get there personally.

I think going forward any competent right handed passer that plays with Nurse is going to put up points (Nurse gets loads of ice time with McDavid, and he defers to his partner a lot for the outlet pass). Probably not at the rate Barrie did this year, and I doubt even Barrie would be able to reproduce this years rate, but good enough that McDavid is allowed to keep pushing the pace. And the lucky guy that gets to play on the 1st PP unit, be ready for points too. Nurse did fine this year on the PP too, 7.44 Points/60 with McDavid (50 minutes) on the PP vs Barrie's 7.29 (180 minutes, and sorry if Goose already pointed that out)

[Updated on: Tue, 11 May 2021 18:11]


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 Re: Tyson Barrie Signs w/ Oilers [message #784910 is a reply to message #784909 ]
Tue, 11 May 2021 18:26 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mightyreasoner  is currently offline mightyreasoner
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Kr55 wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 18:09


I wouldn't want to say I don't think Barrie has great offensive instincts, he most definitely does. Is his skillset so unique that we have to overpay, probably using all the cap space we were banking on to finally fill out our lineup, and deal with his declining years to hold onto it. I'm just not able to get there personally.


For what it's worth, I don't think the extension happens. And maybe Bouchard and Bear work out just fine. Maybe they don't. It would be a shame if they don't and the Oilers once again are looking for that player. But it's not crazy to think one of them *could* replace Barrie.

The thing I kind of go back and forth on a bit though is with the cap space, if you are looking at 4-6 years on a deal, which player is most likely to be healthy and productive through the duration: Larsson, Nugent-Hopkins, or Barrie? To me, it's probably Barrie.

So on the one hand, you have a player that will cost the most, but also might give you the most. He also *might* have some replaceable skills in the depth chart.

On the other hand, you have some injury-prone players heading into their 30s that are high candidates for a decline, and while cheaper, won't come cheap. At their best, neither has replaceable players in the depth chart.

Oilers have some choices to make. Of the three, Barrie will be the most expensive, but may also give you the most through the contract. Oilers may lock in the other two due to current team structure, but to me, those might be even more concerning.



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 Re: Tyson Barrie Signs w/ Oilers [message #784916 is a reply to message #784910 ]
Tue, 11 May 2021 21:44 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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mightyreasoner wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 18:26

Kr55 wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 18:09


I wouldn't want to say I don't think Barrie has great offensive instincts, he most definitely does. Is his skillset so unique that we have to overpay, probably using all the cap space we were banking on to finally fill out our lineup, and deal with his declining years to hold onto it. I'm just not able to get there personally.


For what it's worth, I don't think the extension happens. And maybe Bouchard and Bear work out just fine. Maybe they don't. It would be a shame if they don't and the Oilers once again are looking for that player. But it's not crazy to think one of them *could* replace Barrie.

The thing I kind of go back and forth on a bit though is with the cap space, if you are looking at 4-6 years on a deal, which player is most likely to be healthy and productive through the duration: Larsson, Nugent-Hopkins, or Barrie? To me, it's probably Barrie.

So on the one hand, you have a player that will cost the most, but also might give you the most. He also *might* have some replaceable skills in the depth chart.

On the other hand, you have some injury-prone players heading into their 30s that are high candidates for a decline, and while cheaper, won't come cheap. At their best, neither has replaceable players in the depth chart.

Oilers have some choices to make. Of the three, Barrie will be the most expensive, but may also give you the most through the contract. Oilers may lock in the other two due to current team structure, but to me, those might be even more concerning.


My argument for Nuge over Barrie is based on what we have behind them on the depth chart. We have players who, while not an exact match for Barrie, can replace his minutes.

With Nuge, even with a down year for him this year, he's still head and shoulders above almost any forward in the organization not wearing 97 or 29. He logs big minutes at ES, PP, PK and can play with either of those guys or center his own line. If you lose him, getting a comparable player is likely to cost you a lot more, because you just don't have anyone in the organization ready to step in to those minutes. With Barrie, I feel that more minutes for Bear, and a role for Bouchard, and you're okay - without spending the same money, never mind more.

Larsson - I think he's over-valued by the organization and shouldn't be signed long-term but probably will be. He'll be a bad contract likely by the end of it, but ah well...there's certain mistakes you just can count on Oilers management to make. At least he's going to come much cheaper than either of the other two.



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 Re: Tyson Barrie Signs w/ Oilers [message #784921 is a reply to message #784916 ]
Tue, 11 May 2021 22:19 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mightyreasoner  is currently offline mightyreasoner
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Adam wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 21:44


With Nuge, even with a down year for him this year, he's still head and shoulders above almost any forward in the organization not wearing 97 or 29. He logs big minutes at ES, PP, PK and can play with either of those guys or center his own line. If you lose him, getting a comparable player is likely to cost you a lot more, because you just don't have anyone in the organization ready to step in to those minutes. With Barrie, I feel that more minutes for Bear, and a role for Bouchard, and you're okay - without spending the same money, never mind more.



Nuge almost has a Turris-feel to him. The first few years should be palatable, but injuries at 31 or 32 could send things off the rails fast. Hopefully I'm wrong.



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 Re: Tyson Barrie Signs w/ Oilers [message #784923 is a reply to message #784916 ]
Wed, 12 May 2021 01:50 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Oscargasm  is currently offline Oscargasm
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Adam wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 21:44

mightyreasoner wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 18:26

Kr55 wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 18:09


I wouldn't want to say I don't think Barrie has great offensive instincts, he most definitely does. Is his skillset so unique that we have to overpay, probably using all the cap space we were banking on to finally fill out our lineup, and deal with his declining years to hold onto it. I'm just not able to get there personally.


For what it's worth, I don't think the extension happens. And maybe Bouchard and Bear work out just fine. Maybe they don't. It would be a shame if they don't and the Oilers once again are looking for that player. But it's not crazy to think one of them *could* replace Barrie.

The thing I kind of go back and forth on a bit though is with the cap space, if you are looking at 4-6 years on a deal, which player is most likely to be healthy and productive through the duration: Larsson, Nugent-Hopkins, or Barrie? To me, it's probably Barrie.

So on the one hand, you have a player that will cost the most, but also might give you the most. He also *might* have some replaceable skills in the depth chart.

On the other hand, you have some injury-prone players heading into their 30s that are high candidates for a decline, and while cheaper, won't come cheap. At their best, neither has replaceable players in the depth chart.

Oilers have some choices to make. Of the three, Barrie will be the most expensive, but may also give you the most through the contract. Oilers may lock in the other two due to current team structure, but to me, those might be even more concerning.


My argument for Nuge over Barrie is based on what we have behind them on the depth chart. We have players who, while not an exact match for Barrie, can replace his minutes.

With Nuge, even with a down year for him this year, he's still head and shoulders above almost any forward in the organization not wearing 97 or 29. He logs big minutes at ES, PP, PK and can play with either of those guys or center his own line. If you lose him, getting a comparable player is likely to cost you a lot more, because you just don't have anyone in the organization ready to step in to those minutes. With Barrie, I feel that more minutes for Bear, and a role for Bouchard, and you're okay - without spending the same money, never mind more.

Larsson - I think he's over-valued by the organization and shouldn't be signed long-term but probably will be. He'll be a bad contract likely by the end of it, but ah well...there's certain mistakes you just can count on Oilers management to make. At least he's going to come much cheaper than either of the other two.



I keep going back and forth with Barrie.

Could Bear fill Barrie’s 5v5 minutes and Bouch fill Bear’s 5v5 minutes? Sure. As productive? I don’t think so.

Could Bouch fill Barrie’s pp minutes? Sure. As productive? I don’t know. I would like to think so, but it’s unknown. He’d have the McD boost but I don’t think Tippett just hands that pp role to Bouchard.

But, it’s deeper than that. What does this do to Nurse’ game? He’s having a heck of a season... arguably due in part, 5v5 anyway, to his being paired with Barrie. Does Nurse’ game take a step back with the loss of Barrie 5v5? I think so. You can argue Nurse was good with Bear at 5v5 last season. But not the same level of production we’ve seen when he’s been with Barrie this season. And that Nurse-Bear pair was playing behind Klefbom-Larsson. I don’t have the numbers in front of me, too tired to look it up, but since Bear’s concussion early this season drawing the pair of Nurse-Barrie together 5v5, Nurse seems to have taken off.

Another thing... the Oilers window to really go for it, is now. Well, I mean next season it really starts from what we’ve been told. We realistically have a 3-4 season window where we SHOULD be seeing our Oily Boys in the top tier.

Listen, I want Bouchard to pan out just as much as anyone. I don’t think he has any more to ‘show’ at the lower levels. Can he equal Barrie’s numbers? I would like to think so but expectations are tempered over here.



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 Re: Tyson Barrie Signs w/ Oilers [message #784908 is a reply to message #784888 ]
Tue, 11 May 2021 18:05 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mightyreasoner  is currently offline mightyreasoner
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Goose wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 16:31

mightyreasoner wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 11:33

I saw those OilersNerdAlert numbers last night, but I'm taking them with a little grain of salt too. I'm not sure we're really getting a clear picture with the data he presented. He came in with a bias and has presented as such, IMO.

For example, how many minutes has McDavid played without Barrie on the powerplay? I'm trying to find the data, but my guess is the sample size is a lot smaller, and that they've played a lot more together... which certainly could impact the data. Smaller samples can exaggerate differences or similarities that change with time.

Same could really be said for smaller sample size of data with other defenseman he has played with since to my eye Barrie and Nurse have played a lot more with McDavid than others (which also begs the question how Nurse compares. Do we dump him also?). McDavid needs to have a few good shifts with a few defesemen he normally doesn't play with to really shift that data. I'd love to see total minutes played with each of the defensman if that is available.

To be honest, I do find the Barrie-bashing annoying a bit. Only in Edmonton (and maybe Toronto) do you have the top two scorers in the NHL, the top defenseman in scoring, they are dramatically outscoring opposition when on the ice, and playing them together is controversial. I'd hate to see what some people would have done to Paul Coffey.

The top of the Oilers lineup (McDavid, Draisaitl, Nurse, Barrie, Smith) is producing at a rate we haven't seen since the 1980s. I've never watched them produce at this rate, so finding the rainy cloud in a blue sky isn't really for me right now.

And I do believe this - if any defenseman could do what Barrie has done this year, I imagine they would have. He is producing points at nearly double the rate any other defenseman McDavid has played with in his career has. McDavid is having a career year, and no doubt all this is linked... but perhaps Barrie getting the puck to McDavid with more frequency shouldn't be entirely dismissed out of hand.

I'm not even suggesting Barrie is incredible or this really complete defenseman. But despite how OilersNerdAlert presented things, he seems to work with well with McDavid, and I think we will lose some offensive production if Barrie leaves. If that's the case, you are actually probably hoping that the Oilers allow LESS goals than that they score MORE goals.

I could be wrong, but I think sample sizes need to be questions when looking at that data. If someone has the minutes played with each defenseman, that could be interesting, and if they are close, would be more of an apples to apples comparison.


I'm coming at this from the perspective as to whether the Oilers should be considering signing Barrie or not. Based on what I've seen, I don't think they should, definitely not if the number is $7M. I don't even think they should do it at $5M if the term is more than 3 years. If you want to call that Barrie bashing, that's fine, and I get that the Oilers are doing well so people would rather focus on that but it's nothing personal against Tyson Barrie. He's definitely made the most of the situation he's been given so full credit to him there.

I think the sample size question on the PP is a fair one. Naturalstattrick has all of those breakdowns. McDavid has 181 minutes on the PP this year with Barrie and 46 minutes without Barrie. So sample sizes are not big. At the same time, if you had asked anyone where they thought that Barrie would have the biggest impact on the Oilers, they would have said on the PP. So the fact that McDavid scores more on the PP when Barrie isn't on the ice isn't a great sign.

At 5x5, part of the problem is that Barrie (and Nurse) play so much with McDavid that the other defencemen don't have a lot of time with him.

Here is the breakdown of the defencmen on the team and their minutes and scoring rates with McDavid 5x5:

Nurse: 652 min - 1.75pts/60 (a lot of those minutes are with Barrie also)
Barrie: 546min - 1.87pts/60
Bear: 174 min - 2.06pts/60
Larsson: 141 min - 0.00 pts/60
Russell: 116 min - 2.04 pts/60
Jones: 73 min - 1.63 pts/60

So to say that Barrie's scoring rates with McDavid are unprecedented, maybe that's true from an absolute perspective, but it's definitely not true from a scoring rate perspective this year. And is it fair to compare to any other year given that McDavid, at 5x5, is scoring at almost 0.5pts/60 higher this year than in any previous year (and 0.77pts/60 higher than he was last year)?

Would I like to see more minutes from Bear with McDavid to know whether that number is sustainable? Sure. But Kr55 has already talked about Barrie's 2nd assist rate. Notable that Bear's 2nd assist rate with McDavid is just over half that of Barrie's (0.69/60 vs 1.1/60). Personally, I would have no problem with Bear replacing Barrie as the top RHD in terms of minutes with McDavid, and I don't think the Oilers lose anything in that scenario. I think Bear is a better passer than Barrie, and I think he has a higher hockey IQ.

There's just nothing about Barrie's numbers that scream to me he's somehow unlocked anything with McDavid. Sure, they seem to be working fine together, but I give the lion's share of the credit to McDavid who is right in the middle of what is historically a forward's peak production years (I commented before about comparing Gretzky's points trajectory to where McDavid is), as opposed to Barrie.

Here's where I pulled the numbers for Bear and Barrie, you can play around with the filters to look at anyone else:

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason =20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&am p;am p;am p;stdoi=std&rate=y&v=t&playerid=8478451

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason =20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&am p;am p;am p;stdoi=std&rate=y&v=t&playerid=8475197


Yeah, this is interesting and paints a more complete picture. Thanks, Goose. And I do think the distribution of time is not insignificant and makes direct comparison's difficult. It's sort of what I imagined the time on ice distribution might look like.

It would be interesting to play Bear a little more with McDavid and see what comes of it. Also interesting that Russell has those numbers in a small sample size. Should I suggest to OilersNerdAlert that the Oilers play Russell more with McDavid? mischief

The "Barrie-bashing" comment wasn't so much directed at anyone here as frustration that has boiled over from Twitter where there are very loud accounts that suggest the Oilers should be healthy scratching the (likely) league's defensive scoring leader. It's bizarre. But it really does seem like even among the analytics crowd, there always is one lightning rod player, be that Russell or Nurse, or this year, Barrie. What's wild, looking at those numbers, is how Nurse skates by relatively unscathed by the masses, while Barrie takes the heat he does.

Anyways, I like the fuller picture, because McDavid does make every player he plays with better, and everyone's rate of production drops a lot when he's not playing with them. I'm not sure that should be a surprise, even when it's framed kind of sloppy.

[Updated on: Tue, 11 May 2021 18:09]


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 Re: Tyson Barrie Signs w/ Oilers [message #784901 is a reply to message #784860 ]
Tue, 11 May 2021 17:43 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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mightyreasoner wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 12:33


To be honest, I do find the Barrie-bashing annoying a bit. Only in Edmonton (and maybe Toronto) do you have the top two scorers in the NHL, the top defenseman in scoring, they are dramatically outscoring opposition when on the ice, and playing them together is controversial. I'd hate to see what some people would have done to Paul Coffey.



Re: Paul Coffey - I know it's hard to adequately explain players to people who didn't see them play, but Paul Coffey would have been one of the best defencemen in the league and likely league history no matter where he played. He was a phenomenal passer, but also one of the best skaters of his time. He could beat teams end-to-end, and could create opportunities all by himself, and he and Gretzky were a phenomenal pair. As much as the Gretzky/Kurri relationship is talked about, the one with Coffey was as good. There really isn't a comparison between him and Barrie, because Coffey could hurt you so many ways. He could pass, he could skate, he could shoot. He could jump in to the rush in a way no one else did in that era.



There's not a lot of highlights on YouTube of his Oilers time that I can find - but that VERY 80s video is an illustration.

Paul Coffey was a first ballot Hall of Famer - I don't think Barrie's close, although I really enjoy the season he's had this year.



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 Re: Tyson Barrie Signs w/ Oilers [message #784902 is a reply to message #784901 ]
Tue, 11 May 2021 17:47 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
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Adam wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 17:43

mightyreasoner wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 12:33


To be honest, I do find the Barrie-bashing annoying a bit. Only in Edmonton (and maybe Toronto) do you have the top two scorers in the NHL, the top defenseman in scoring, they are dramatically outscoring opposition when on the ice, and playing them together is controversial. I'd hate to see what some people would have done to Paul Coffey.



Re: Paul Coffey - I know it's hard to adequately explain players to people who didn't see them play, but Paul Coffey would have been one of the best defencemen in the league and likely league history no matter where he played. He was a phenomenal passer, but also one of the best skaters of his time. He could beat teams end-to-end, and could create opportunities all by himself, and he and Gretzky were a phenomenal pair. As much as the Gretzky/Kurri relationship is talked about, the one with Coffey was as good. There really isn't a comparison between him and Barrie, because Coffey could hurt you so many ways. He could pass, he could skate, he could shoot. He could jump in to the rush in a way no one else did in that era.



There's not a lot of highlights on YouTube of his Oilers time that I can find - but that VERY 80s video is an illustration.

Paul Coffey was a first ballot Hall of Famer - I don't think Barrie's close, although I really enjoy the season he's had this year.


Watch Makar play and that's probably your similar to Coffey guy right now.



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 Re: Tyson Barrie Signs w/ Oilers [message #784905 is a reply to message #784902 ]
Tue, 11 May 2021 17:55 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Kr55 wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 17:47

Adam wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 17:43

mightyreasoner wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 12:33


To be honest, I do find the Barrie-bashing annoying a bit. Only in Edmonton (and maybe Toronto) do you have the top two scorers in the NHL, the top defenseman in scoring, they are dramatically outscoring opposition when on the ice, and playing them together is controversial. I'd hate to see what some people would have done to Paul Coffey.



Re: Paul Coffey - I know it's hard to adequately explain players to people who didn't see them play, but Paul Coffey would have been one of the best defencemen in the league and likely league history no matter where he played. He was a phenomenal passer, but also one of the best skaters of his time. He could beat teams end-to-end, and could create opportunities all by himself, and he and Gretzky were a phenomenal pair. As much as the Gretzky/Kurri relationship is talked about, the one with Coffey was as good. There really isn't a comparison between him and Barrie, because Coffey could hurt you so many ways. He could pass, he could skate, he could shoot. He could jump in to the rush in a way no one else did in that era.



There's not a lot of highlights on YouTube of his Oilers time that I can find - but that VERY 80s video is an illustration.

Paul Coffey was a first ballot Hall of Famer - I don't think Barrie's close, although I really enjoy the season he's had this year.


Watch Makar play and that's probably your similar to Coffey guy right now.


No, no, I get all that. But what is his GA/60 and his 5x5 expected points with and without Gretzky?



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 Re: Tyson Barrie Signs w/ Oilers [message #784885 is a reply to message #784855 ]
Tue, 11 May 2021 15:47 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Goose wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 10:44

@OilersNerdAlert ran some numbers on McDavid and Barrie splits and it doesn't paint a very good picture for re-signing Barrie. There's no way the Oilers should be even considering re-signing Barrie for the numbers he's going to command:

Quote:

I kept them under my hat because it's too close to dinner!

At 5v5 McDavid w Barrie puts up 3.37 p/60. When Barrie steps off the ice, McD's scores at ... 3.95 p/60.

Meanwhile, McDavid's GA/60 rate falls from 3.03 GA/60 to 2.47 GA/60 when Barrie leaves.

AnchorAnchorAnchorAnchorAnchorAnchorAnchorAnchor


https://twitter.com/OilersNerdAlert/status/13919258906494976 03?s=20

The powerplay numbers are really the most surprising to me:

Quote:

Meanwhile on the PP, McDavid scores at 9.03 p/60 with Barrie and ... 10.44 p/60 without Barrie.

I mean, I knew it was bad, but come on.


If he's dragging the 1PP down, then what is he even bringing to the table?

https://twitter.com/OilersNerdAlert/status/13919262202547118 08?s=20

Barrie's numbers are also much worse without McDavid, which should be obvious, but the gaps are significant.

Quote:

He's +4.16 - 3.03 with McDavid.

He's +2.37 - 2.85 without McDavid.

Pointswise, he scores 1.91 p/60 with and 0.79 without.


The top 2 rows are GF/GA per 60.

https://twitter.com/OilersNerdAlert/status/13919397612757360 66?s=20


I think the analytics community generally is able to predict outcomes better than the rest. But sometimes I think they just rely way too much on a few niche numbers to try to paint a picture of a player.

In particular, I think there is a big blindspot when they evaluate high offense defenseman. I'm just not sure how anybody can confidently assert that Barrie is DRAGGING production down for the number 1 powerplay in the league. I'm not sure how anybody could confidently assert that Barrie is DRAGGING down the best individual scoring season since Lemieux. Get another analytics darling like Ethan Bear, replace Barrie, and is the prediction that these two phenomenon get even better? I just really really doubt it.

To me there is obviously something missing for the analytics community when evaluating players like Tyson Barrie, John Carlson etc. They get absolutely carved up. One day I hope somebody smarter than me figures it out, since significantly outproducing your peers year after year is seemingly not an argument to take into consideration.

[Updated on: Tue, 11 May 2021 15:57]


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 Re: Tyson Barrie Signs w/ Oilers [message #784857 is a reply to message #768235 ]
Tue, 11 May 2021 12:10 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Tyson Barrie for Norris Trophy campaign begins now.


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 Re: Tyson Barrie Signs w/ Oilers [message #784866 is a reply to message #784857 ]
Tue, 11 May 2021 12:56 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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It is pretty typical of a segment of Oilers fan to feel the need to carve up a player. Things are going well, team is winning, they look to be a good team so it's hard to complain about the team so they go pick apart a player. He's close to scoring 50 pts in 56 games.

The Oilers PP is #1 in the league, almost 2 % better than any other team but apparently it's not good enough.

McD is on a 155 pt in 82 game pace, numbers we haven't seen since the 80's or early 90's but apparently Barrie is dragging down his points.

I don't see the Oilers resigning just because I think he will price himself out and they have a built in guy that should be able to take over his role mostly in Bouchard for cheap. But I don't get why Oilers fans can't just enjoy things and their players. I still see people carving up Nurse and he will probably get norris vottes. confused2



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 Re: Tyson Barrie Signs w/ Oilers [message #784867 is a reply to message #784866 ]
Tue, 11 May 2021 12:58 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 12:56

It is pretty typical of a segment of Oilers fan to feel the need to carve up a player. Things are going well, team is winning, they look to be a good team so it's hard to complain about the team so they go pick apart a player. He's close to scoring 50 pts in 56 games.

The Oilers PP is #1 in the league, almost 2 % better than any other team but apparently it's not good enough.

McD is on a 155 pt in 82 game pace, numbers we haven't seen since the 80's or early 90's but apparently Barrie is dragging down his points.

I don't see the Oilers resigning just because I think he will price himself out and they have a built in guy that should be able to take over his role mostly in Bouchard for cheap. But I don't get why Oilers fans can't just enjoy things and their players. I still see people carving up Nurse and he will probably get norris vottes. confused2



Not that bad to look at the summer and next year is it? The GM told us this season is a write off anyways :) Just not a top 5 team, even if we added at the deadline :(



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 Re: Tyson Barrie Signs w/ Oilers [message #784871 is a reply to message #784867 ]
Tue, 11 May 2021 14:03 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Kr55 wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 12:58

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 12:56

It is pretty typical of a segment of Oilers fan to feel the need to carve up a player. Things are going well, team is winning, they look to be a good team so it's hard to complain about the team so they go pick apart a player. He's close to scoring 50 pts in 56 games.

The Oilers PP is #1 in the league, almost 2 % better than any other team but apparently it's not good enough.

McD is on a 155 pt in 82 game pace, numbers we haven't seen since the 80's or early 90's but apparently Barrie is dragging down his points.

I don't see the Oilers resigning just because I think he will price himself out and they have a built in guy that should be able to take over his role mostly in Bouchard for cheap. But I don't get why Oilers fans can't just enjoy things and their players. I still see people carving up Nurse and he will probably get norris vottes. confused2



Not that bad to look at the summer and next year is it? The GM told us this season is a write off anyways :) Just not a top 5 team, even if we added at the deadline :(


I guess so but I question the guys numbers a little because they can be manipulated.

Barrie is on pace for 70 pts in 82 games. That's not enough? what should he be scoring if he was "good?"

The PP is #1 in the league, almost 2% better than #2. They are 29.5% last year and that was record setting so to think it was going to do that again isn't realistic but at the same time the Oilers played 71 games last year. Maybe if they played the same games it would get up there. But being #1 in the league and by a lot isn't good enough?

McD is doing things we haven't seen a player do in decades. Barrie is helping with that. But the 155 pt pace in 82 games he's on isn't enough?

The guys numbers are implying that Barrie isn't very good. HOW?

There are stats guys out there who will say that Nurse isn't a very good dman. Am I supposed to believe that too?

[Updated on: Tue, 11 May 2021 14:06]


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 Re: Tyson Barrie Signs w/ Oilers [message #784878 is a reply to message #784871 ]
Tue, 11 May 2021 15:01 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mightyreasoner  is currently offline mightyreasoner
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RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 14:03

Kr55 wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 12:58

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 12:56

It is pretty typical of a segment of Oilers fan to feel the need to carve up a player. Things are going well, team is winning, they look to be a good team so it's hard to complain about the team so they go pick apart a player. He's close to scoring 50 pts in 56 games.

The Oilers PP is #1 in the league, almost 2 % better than any other team but apparently it's not good enough.

McD is on a 155 pt in 82 game pace, numbers we haven't seen since the 80's or early 90's but apparently Barrie is dragging down his points.

I don't see the Oilers resigning just because I think he will price himself out and they have a built in guy that should be able to take over his role mostly in Bouchard for cheap. But I don't get why Oilers fans can't just enjoy things and their players. I still see people carving up Nurse and he will probably get norris vottes. confused2



Not that bad to look at the summer and next year is it? The GM told us this season is a write off anyways :) Just not a top 5 team, even if we added at the deadline :(


I guess so but I question the guys numbers a little because they can be manipulated.

Barrie is on pace for 70 pts in 82 games. That's not enough? what should he be scoring if he was "good?"

The PP is #1 in the league, almost 2% better than #2. They are 29.5% last year and that was record setting so to think it was going to do that again isn't realistic but at the same time the Oilers played 71 games last year. Maybe if they played the same games it would get up there. But being #1 in the league and by a lot isn't good enough?

McD is doing things we haven't seen a player do in decades. Barrie is helping with that. But the 155 pt pace in 82 games he's on isn't enough?

The guys numbers are implying that Barrie isn't very good. HOW?

There are stats guys out there who will say that Nurse isn't a very good dman. Am I supposed to believe that too?


The problem with that set of tweets and data selection is the implication and conclusion: that if you were to take all of Tyson Barrie's minutes this season and divide it up between Adam Larsson and Ethan Bear, not only would McDavid's numbers be just as ridiculous as they are now, they'd actually be even better!

Adam "first pass" Larsson (9 points) and Ethan Bear (8 points) are apparently the key to unlocking more offense out of McDavid and pushing him to 117 points instead of 102 points. Never mind that both of those guys have been with McDavid for years, the data selected seem to implicate that if those two were playing with McDavid instead of Tyson Barrie, McDavid would have hit 100 points weeks ago.

I don't think anyone is going to question that McDavid helps Barrie more than Barrie helps McDavid. We all know the less time Barrie is playing in his own end, the better (and if there is an argument to make against him, that's the one, that his offensive benefit doesn't outweigh his defensively liability, though as those tweets point out, he's outscored opposition this year when on the ice). But it's just such a jump in my mind to conclude that Larsson and Bear playing with McDavid would cause him to be produce at a higher rate offensively this year than he has. It really feels like there is something more to be seen in the data, something missing, or else Larsson's agent should be pointing this exact scenario out in contract negotiations this summer.



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 Re: Tyson Barrie Signs w/ Oilers [message #784883 is a reply to message #784878 ]
Tue, 11 May 2021 15:30 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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mightyreasoner wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 15:01

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 14:03

Kr55 wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 12:58

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 12:56

It is pretty typical of a segment of Oilers fan to feel the need to carve up a player. Things are going well, team is winning, they look to be a good team so it's hard to complain about the team so they go pick apart a player. He's close to scoring 50 pts in 56 games.

The Oilers PP is #1 in the league, almost 2 % better than any other team but apparently it's not good enough.

McD is on a 155 pt in 82 game pace, numbers we haven't seen since the 80's or early 90's but apparently Barrie is dragging down his points.

I don't see the Oilers resigning just because I think he will price himself out and they have a built in guy that should be able to take over his role mostly in Bouchard for cheap. But I don't get why Oilers fans can't just enjoy things and their players. I still see people carving up Nurse and he will probably get norris vottes. confused2



Not that bad to look at the summer and next year is it? The GM told us this season is a write off anyways :) Just not a top 5 team, even if we added at the deadline :(


I guess so but I question the guys numbers a little because they can be manipulated.

Barrie is on pace for 70 pts in 82 games. That's not enough? what should he be scoring if he was "good?"

The PP is #1 in the league, almost 2% better than #2. They are 29.5% last year and that was record setting so to think it was going to do that again isn't realistic but at the same time the Oilers played 71 games last year. Maybe if they played the same games it would get up there. But being #1 in the league and by a lot isn't good enough?

McD is doing things we haven't seen a player do in decades. Barrie is helping with that. But the 155 pt pace in 82 games he's on isn't enough?

The guys numbers are implying that Barrie isn't very good. HOW?

There are stats guys out there who will say that Nurse isn't a very good dman. Am I supposed to believe that too?


The problem with that set of tweets and data selection is the implication and conclusion: that if you were to take all of Tyson Barrie's minutes this season and divide it up between Adam Larsson and Ethan Bear, not only would McDavid's numbers be just as ridiculous as they are now, they'd actually be even better!

Adam "first pass" Larsson (9 points) and Ethan Bear (8 points) are apparently the key to unlocking more offense out of McDavid and pushing him to 117 points instead of 102 points. Never mind that both of those guys have been with McDavid for years, the data selected seem to implicate that if those two were playing with McDavid instead of Tyson Barrie, McDavid would have hit 100 points weeks ago.

I don't think anyone is going to question that McDavid helps Barrie more than Barrie helps McDavid. We all know the less time Barrie is playing in his own end, the better (and if there is an argument to make against him, that's the one, that his offensive benefit doesn't outweigh his defensively liability, though as those tweets point out, he's outscored opposition this year when on the ice). But it's just such a jump in my mind to conclude that Larsson and Bear playing with McDavid would cause him to be produce at a higher rate offensively this year than he has. It really feels like there is something more to be seen in the data, something missing, or else Larsson's agent should be pointing this exact scenario out in contract negotiations this summer.

Does McD not help every single player on the Oilers and would help any player in the league? I would think so.
Like I said, these numbers guys can make any number do whatever they want. Barrie is not a perfect dman, he has his warts but the notion that you can put up any guy you want and they would be better off than with Barrie is such BS. That being said, as much as I like what Barrie has done here, I think the play is to not resign him. You need to create a spot for Bouchard and while I do not think Bouchard next season will put up the same numbers as Barrie because experience counts in the NHL, especially for dmen, I think he can replace most of what Barrie has done this season.

Now if Barrie comes to the Oilers, professes his love for Edmonton and says all he wants is the same deal or slightly less than what he got this season, well then you have to look at him because he's be making you sign him because it's so cheap. Then you find a way to get Bouchard in. If that happens, you send whatever development coach to wherever Bouchard lives in the offseason and have him spend the entire summer working on playing the left side.



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 Re: Tyson Barrie Signs w/ Oilers [message #784890 is a reply to message #784878 ]
Tue, 11 May 2021 16:52 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Goose  is currently offline Goose
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mightyreasoner wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 14:01



The problem with that set of tweets and data selection is the implication and conclusion: that if you were to take all of Tyson Barrie's minutes this season and divide it up between Adam Larsson and Ethan Bear, not only would McDavid's numbers be just as ridiculous as they are now, they'd actually be even better!

Adam "first pass" Larsson (9 points) and Ethan Bear (8 points) are apparently the key to unlocking more offense out of McDavid and pushing him to 117 points instead of 102 points. Never mind that both of those guys have been with McDavid for years, the data selected seem to implicate that if those two were playing with McDavid instead of Tyson Barrie, McDavid would have hit 100 points weeks ago.

I don't think anyone is going to question that McDavid helps Barrie more than Barrie helps McDavid. We all know the less time Barrie is playing in his own end, the better (and if there is an argument to make against him, that's the one, that his offensive benefit doesn't outweigh his defensively liability, though as those tweets point out, he's outscored opposition this year when on the ice). But it's just such a jump in my mind to conclude that Larsson and Bear playing with McDavid would cause him to be produce at a higher rate offensively this year than he has. It really feels like there is something more to be seen in the data, something missing, or else Larsson's agent should be pointing this exact scenario out in contract negotiations this summer.


Literally no one, not one single person, is saying that if you replaced Barrie's minutes with Larsson that McDavid would score more. The numbers don't even suggest that. In terms of RHD ranked by minutes played with McDavid, McDavid scores:

Barrie - 3.41 pts/60
Bear - 4.12 pts/60
Larsson - 2.12 pts/60

Again, my point isn't to disparage what Barrie has brought to the Oilers this year. He was a good signing for the price and term they got him for. And I'm not even saying that if you flipped Barrie's and Bear's minutes that McDavid would have scored more (although I'm not not saying that either icon_wink). I just don't think there's any indication that the gap between the two is so large as to justify signing Barrie for $5M - $7M on a long term deal. https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason =20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&am p;stdoi=std&rate=y&v=t&playerid=8478402



Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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 Re: Tyson Barrie Signs w/ Oilers [message #784893 is a reply to message #784878 ]
Tue, 11 May 2021 17:04 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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mightyreasoner wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 15:01

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 14:03

Kr55 wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 12:58

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 12:56

It is pretty typical of a segment of Oilers fan to feel the need to carve up a player. Things are going well, team is winning, they look to be a good team so it's hard to complain about the team so they go pick apart a player. He's close to scoring 50 pts in 56 games.

The Oilers PP is #1 in the league, almost 2 % better than any other team but apparently it's not good enough.

McD is on a 155 pt in 82 game pace, numbers we haven't seen since the 80's or early 90's but apparently Barrie is dragging down his points.

I don't see the Oilers resigning just because I think he will price himself out and they have a built in guy that should be able to take over his role mostly in Bouchard for cheap. But I don't get why Oilers fans can't just enjoy things and their players. I still see people carving up Nurse and he will probably get norris vottes. confused2



Not that bad to look at the summer and next year is it? The GM told us this season is a write off anyways :) Just not a top 5 team, even if we added at the deadline :(


I guess so but I question the guys numbers a little because they can be manipulated.

Barrie is on pace for 70 pts in 82 games. That's not enough? what should he be scoring if he was "good?"

The PP is #1 in the league, almost 2% better than #2. They are 29.5% last year and that was record setting so to think it was going to do that again isn't realistic but at the same time the Oilers played 71 games last year. Maybe if they played the same games it would get up there. But being #1 in the league and by a lot isn't good enough?

McD is doing things we haven't seen a player do in decades. Barrie is helping with that. But the 155 pt pace in 82 games he's on isn't enough?

The guys numbers are implying that Barrie isn't very good. HOW?

There are stats guys out there who will say that Nurse isn't a very good dman. Am I supposed to believe that too?


The problem with that set of tweets and data selection is the implication and conclusion: that if you were to take all of Tyson Barrie's minutes this season and divide it up between Adam Larsson and Ethan Bear, not only would McDavid's numbers be just as ridiculous as they are now, they'd actually be even better!

Adam "first pass" Larsson (9 points) and Ethan Bear (8 points) are apparently the key to unlocking more offense out of McDavid and pushing him to 117 points instead of 102 points. Never mind that both of those guys have been with McDavid for years, the data selected seem to implicate that if those two were playing with McDavid instead of Tyson Barrie, McDavid would have hit 100 points weeks ago.

I don't think anyone is going to question that McDavid helps Barrie more than Barrie helps McDavid. We all know the less time Barrie is playing in his own end, the better (and if there is an argument to make against him, that's the one, that his offensive benefit doesn't outweigh his defensively liability, though as those tweets point out, he's outscored opposition this year when on the ice). But it's just such a jump in my mind to conclude that Larsson and Bear playing with McDavid would cause him to be produce at a higher rate offensively this year than he has. It really feels like there is something more to be seen in the data, something missing, or else Larsson's agent should be pointing this exact scenario out in contract negotiations this summer.


A few things:

- Bear probably does have more offence than he's shown this year. He's not been used in a role that gives him a lot of opportunity there this year. Because Tippett has done so much of the year with a five-man unit for McDavid with Barrie & Nurse, it's meant that Bear's had a lot of his time down roster. As we know, the third and fourth lines don't contribute anywhere close to as much as they should, so not an easy place to get points.

- For RDOF, I don't think anyone hates Tyson Barrie. He's done a good job this year, and he's delivered the good when it comes to what's been expected of him. He's contributing points, he's not a massive defensive liability either, despite playing against good competition. Playing with McDavid really helps with that - he puts other team's top guys on the defensive. However, I don't believe the Oilers can afford to sign Tyson Barrie to the contract he's going to sign this summer, and I think it would be a mistake to commit multiple years and big dollars to him.

- It is interesting some of the difference between Nurse and Barrie - despite them playing together much of the year. Nurse is +29 - tied for 2nd in the league, Barrie is +6. Plus/Minus is relevant on a relative basis...so that's a bit of an odd gap.

- I am admittedly bullish on Bouchard, and think a lot of the loss of Barrie can be mitigated by him. I think he'll be an excellent powerplay defenceman. I like the mobility and the game sense. He has more than just a big blast (although he has an absolute cannon) in that he can take the quick sneaky wrist shot that gets through traffic, and he can make the 3/4 speed shot for tips. He seems to pass really well too. I'm excited to see what he can do with the PP and what he can add given a bigger role. Some of that bigger role needs to come at the expense of Barrie - because you can't have them both as the point man on the powerplay. Whether that happens this coming season or the one after, if Bouchard takes minutes from Barrie on the man advantage, Barrie is immediately overpaid. Just under 50% of his points are powerplay points this year.

- I also think that if you keep Barrie, and assuming the reports are true that the Oilers do prioritize Larsson over all their other free agents, then you need to trade either Bear or Bouchard (or get Tippett comfortable with playing Bouchard at LD). Another year sitting and watching games is not good for Bouchard's development and terrible for the Oilers asset management. I think he has done enough to show he's ready for a spot on the team, and so that means we have an extra decent RD. If we re-sign Barrie (and Larsson), then that's too valuable an asset to not put in play to address another need.

- The one other point worth remembering is that Darnell Nurse is UFA at the end of next year. If you put $7MM plus in Tyson Barrie's bank account next year and several after that, do you have enough to pay Nurse what he's going to demand? Can you afford to pay them both long-term? What happens then if Bouchard breaks through and Barrie falls off? MacT didn't want to have three $4MM defenceman - what if they're all making $7MM+???

- I think enjoy Barrie for what he is - a one-year Oiler who was a great fit for meeting both our objectives. We got a great PP player to replace Klefbom while he's out, and a bridge until the Bouchard era begins. He got an opportunity to really push his scoring numbers and to give him the best possible shot at getting top dollar and term from someone this summer. If we're REALLY lucky, he can leave with a Cup ring too (although it would have helped if we'd added another top-six forward or another good goalie)...



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 Re: Tyson Barrie Signs w/ Oilers [message #784896 is a reply to message #784893 ]
Tue, 11 May 2021 17:11 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Adam wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 17:04

mightyreasoner wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 15:01

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 14:03

Kr55 wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 12:58

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 12:56

It is pretty typical of a segment of Oilers fan to feel the need to carve up a player. Things are going well, team is winning, they look to be a good team so it's hard to complain about the team so they go pick apart a player. He's close to scoring 50 pts in 56 games.

The Oilers PP is #1 in the league, almost 2 % better than any other team but apparently it's not good enough.

McD is on a 155 pt in 82 game pace, numbers we haven't seen since the 80's or early 90's but apparently Barrie is dragging down his points.

I don't see the Oilers resigning just because I think he will price himself out and they have a built in guy that should be able to take over his role mostly in Bouchard for cheap. But I don't get why Oilers fans can't just enjoy things and their players. I still see people carving up Nurse and he will probably get norris vottes. confused2



Not that bad to look at the summer and next year is it? The GM told us this season is a write off anyways :) Just not a top 5 team, even if we added at the deadline :(


I guess so but I question the guys numbers a little because they can be manipulated.

Barrie is on pace for 70 pts in 82 games. That's not enough? what should he be scoring if he was "good?"

The PP is #1 in the league, almost 2% better than #2. They are 29.5% last year and that was record setting so to think it was going to do that again isn't realistic but at the same time the Oilers played 71 games last year. Maybe if they played the same games it would get up there. But being #1 in the league and by a lot isn't good enough?

McD is doing things we haven't seen a player do in decades. Barrie is helping with that. But the 155 pt pace in 82 games he's on isn't enough?

The guys numbers are implying that Barrie isn't very good. HOW?

There are stats guys out there who will say that Nurse isn't a very good dman. Am I supposed to believe that too?


The problem with that set of tweets and data selection is the implication and conclusion: that if you were to take all of Tyson Barrie's minutes this season and divide it up between Adam Larsson and Ethan Bear, not only would McDavid's numbers be just as ridiculous as they are now, they'd actually be even better!

Adam "first pass" Larsson (9 points) and Ethan Bear (8 points) are apparently the key to unlocking more offense out of McDavid and pushing him to 117 points instead of 102 points. Never mind that both of those guys have been with McDavid for years, the data selected seem to implicate that if those two were playing with McDavid instead of Tyson Barrie, McDavid would have hit 100 points weeks ago.

I don't think anyone is going to question that McDavid helps Barrie more than Barrie helps McDavid. We all know the less time Barrie is playing in his own end, the better (and if there is an argument to make against him, that's the one, that his offensive benefit doesn't outweigh his defensively liability, though as those tweets point out, he's outscored opposition this year when on the ice). But it's just such a jump in my mind to conclude that Larsson and Bear playing with McDavid would cause him to be produce at a higher rate offensively this year than he has. It really feels like there is something more to be seen in the data, something missing, or else Larsson's agent should be pointing this exact scenario out in contract negotiations this summer.


A few things:

- Bear probably does have more offence than he's shown this year. He's not been used in a role that gives him a lot of opportunity there this year. Because Tippett has done so much of the year with a five-man unit for McDavid with Barrie & Nurse, it's meant that Bear's had a lot of his time down roster. As we know, the third and fourth lines don't contribute anywhere close to as much as they should, so not an easy place to get points.

- For RDOF, I don't think anyone hates Tyson Barrie. He's done a good job this year, and he's delivered the good when it comes to what's been expected of him. He's contributing points, he's not a massive defensive liability either, despite playing against good competition. Playing with McDavid really helps with that - he puts other team's top guys on the defensive. However, I don't believe the Oilers can afford to sign Tyson Barrie to the contract he's going to sign this summer, and I think it would be a mistake to commit multiple years and big dollars to him.

- It is interesting some of the difference between Nurse and Barrie - despite them playing together much of the year. Nurse is +29 - tied for 2nd in the league, Barrie is +6. Plus/Minus is relevant on a relative basis...so that's a bit of an odd gap.

- I am admittedly bullish on Bouchard, and think a lot of the loss of Barrie can be mitigated by him. I think he'll be an excellent powerplay defenceman. I like the mobility and the game sense. He has more than just a big blast (although he has an absolute cannon) in that he can take the quick sneaky wrist shot that gets through traffic, and he can make the 3/4 speed shot for tips. He seems to pass really well too. I'm excited to see what he can do with the PP and what he can add given a bigger role. Some of that bigger role needs to come at the expense of Barrie - because you can't have them both as the point man on the powerplay. Whether that happens this coming season or the one after, if Bouchard takes minutes from Barrie on the man advantage, Barrie is immediately overpaid. Just under 50% of his points are powerplay points this year.

- I also think that if you keep Barrie, and assuming the reports are true that the Oilers do prioritize Larsson over all their other free agents, then you need to trade either Bear or Bouchard (or get Tippett comfortable with playing Bouchard at LD). Another year sitting and watching games is not good for Bouchard's development and terrible for the Oilers asset management. I think he has done enough to show he's ready for a spot on the team, and so that means we have an extra decent RD. If we re-sign Barrie (and Larsson), then that's too valuable an asset to not put in play to address another need.

- The one other point worth remembering is that Darnell Nurse is UFA at the end of next year. If you put $7MM plus in Tyson Barrie's bank account next year and several after that, do you have enough to pay Nurse what he's going to demand? Can you afford to pay them both long-term? What happens then if Bouchard breaks through and Barrie falls off? MacT didn't want to have three $4MM defenceman - what if they're all making $7MM+???

- I think enjoy Barrie for what he is - a one-year Oiler who was a great fit for meeting both our objectives. We got a great PP player to replace Klefbom while he's out, and a bridge until the Bouchard era begins. He got an opportunity to really push his scoring numbers and to give him the best possible shot at getting top dollar and term from someone this summer. If we're REALLY lucky, he can leave with a Cup ring too (although it would have helped if we'd added another top-six forward or another good goalie)...

Like I said, I don't think signing Barrie is the right call unless he makes it so you have to by coming in so cheap. If he comes back and says just give me what I make now, they'd be crazy to ignore that.



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 Re: Tyson Barrie Signs w/ Oilers [message #784897 is a reply to message #784896 ]
Tue, 11 May 2021 17:16 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 17:11


Like I said, I don't think signing Barrie is the right call unless he makes it so you have to by coming in so cheap. If he comes back and says just give me what I make now, they'd be crazy to ignore that.


Depends on how long. If he says $4MM a year for eight years, would you do that? It would take him until he's almost 38...



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 Re: Tyson Barrie Signs w/ Oilers [message #784900 is a reply to message #784897 ]
Tue, 11 May 2021 17:34 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Adam wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 16:16

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 17:11


Like I said, I don't think signing Barrie is the right call unless he makes it so you have to by coming in so cheap. If he comes back and says just give me what I make now, they'd be crazy to ignore that.


Depends on how long. If he says $4MM a year for eight years, would you do that? It would take him until he's almost 38...


Barrie would be crazy to not go to UFA and cash in on what might be his last big NHL deal. However, what if the team goes a few rounds in the playoffs and heads into the summer with a real feeling of being just that close to a cup? Would Barrie consider doing another 1 or 2 year deal at similar money to get a cup? Would Holland consider it if it meant coming back next year with the same group on the crowded right side? Would you look to move Bear or Bouchard to address other needs? Lots of possibilities here, and it's nice to have too many good players rather than AHL level D rounding out the roster.



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 Re: Tyson Barrie Signs w/ Oilers [message #784906 is a reply to message #784900 ]
Tue, 11 May 2021 17:56 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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jds308 wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 17:34

Adam wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 16:16

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 17:11


Like I said, I don't think signing Barrie is the right call unless he makes it so you have to by coming in so cheap. If he comes back and says just give me what I make now, they'd be crazy to ignore that.


Depends on how long. If he says $4MM a year for eight years, would you do that? It would take him until he's almost 38...


Barrie would be crazy to not go to UFA and cash in on what might be his last big NHL deal. However, what if the team goes a few rounds in the playoffs and heads into the summer with a real feeling of being just that close to a cup? Would Barrie consider doing another 1 or 2 year deal at similar money to get a cup? Would Holland consider it if it meant coming back next year with the same group on the crowded right side? Would you look to move Bear or Bouchard to address other needs? Lots of possibilities here, and it's nice to have too many good players rather than AHL level D rounding out the roster.


If you're Barrie's agent, and the Oilers are offering a 1-2 year deal, you have to tell your client he'd be crazy to accept it. If he gets hurt, if he gets supplanted by Bouchard, if he just has a rough season, he could be leaving millions and millions on the table. Even if we gave him a big short contract - say $8MMx1 - if he could get even just $6.5x7 from Seattle or someone else, that's $37.5MM difference. You blow out a knee and you have that much less to retire on. It just isn't worth the risk. His entire career earnings to this point are just over $32MM. He can make WAY more than that on this contract likely so he has to follow the money. If it was a choice between $6.5MM for 7 years and $7MM for 8 years, maybe you can make that sacrifice, but to go short term? It would be an insane decision - no matter how much he likes it here.



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 Re: Tyson Barrie Signs w/ Oilers [message #784955 is a reply to message #784906 ]
Wed, 12 May 2021 10:11 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Adam wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 16:56

jds308 wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 17:34

Adam wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 16:16

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 17:11


Like I said, I don't think signing Barrie is the right call unless he makes it so you have to by coming in so cheap. If he comes back and says just give me what I make now, they'd be crazy to ignore that.


Depends on how long. If he says $4MM a year for eight years, would you do that? It would take him until he's almost 38...


Barrie would be crazy to not go to UFA and cash in on what might be his last big NHL deal. However, what if the team goes a few rounds in the playoffs and heads into the summer with a real feeling of being just that close to a cup? Would Barrie consider doing another 1 or 2 year deal at similar money to get a cup? Would Holland consider it if it meant coming back next year with the same group on the crowded right side? Would you look to move Bear or Bouchard to address other needs? Lots of possibilities here, and it's nice to have too many good players rather than AHL level D rounding out the roster.


If you're Barrie's agent, and the Oilers are offering a 1-2 year deal, you have to tell your client he'd be crazy to accept it. If he gets hurt, if he gets supplanted by Bouchard, if he just has a rough season, he could be leaving millions and millions on the table. Even if we gave him a big short contract - say $8MMx1 - if he could get even just $6.5x7 from Seattle or someone else, that's $37.5MM difference. You blow out a knee and you have that much less to retire on. It just isn't worth the risk. His entire career earnings to this point are just over $32MM. He can make WAY more than that on this contract likely so he has to follow the money. If it was a choice between $6.5MM for 7 years and $7MM for 8 years, maybe you can make that sacrifice, but to go short term? It would be an insane decision - no matter how much he likes it here.


If you were to pin me down and force me to predict, I would most certainly agree that he would follow the money and earn the most he can before his best days are behind him.

There is something to be said, however, about "fit" and the opportunity to win a championship. Barrie fits well on this team, and there's a reasonable chance that the Oilers are going to bring home a cup in the next few years (FFS I hope). Also, we've seen this story play out time and time again. Player X has a good season ahead of UFA, team Y, looking to make a splash, over pays player X hoping they are the secret sauce to save their franchise! It rarely works out, and usually, the player and team end up unhappy, and often a painful buy-out follows. Barrie may value fit and potential for a cup over the risk of the other scenario. Plus, if he signed a 2-year deal, and the Oilers win a cup year after next, he would be right back in the UFA driver's seat again.

The other X factor here is the flat cap. It's not like other teams don't know that Barrie is far from a perfect player. They aren't going to just look at his points and hand him 6x8M or something like that. He might find that there are less big money, long-term offers out there this summer. I doubt the Oilers would have the best offer, but who knows, they might be able to offer something close, plus fit and opportunity (and 97). At the end of the day, I think he's playing in a different sweater next year.

[Updated on: Wed, 12 May 2021 10:16]


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 Re: Tyson Barrie Signs w/ Oilers [message #784956 is a reply to message #784955 ]
Wed, 12 May 2021 10:33 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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jds308 wrote on Wed, 12 May 2021 10:11

Adam wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 16:56

jds308 wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 17:34

Adam wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 16:16

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 17:11


Like I said, I don't think signing Barrie is the right call unless he makes it so you have to by coming in so cheap. If he comes back and says just give me what I make now, they'd be crazy to ignore that.


Depends on how long. If he says $4MM a year for eight years, would you do that? It would take him until he's almost 38...


Barrie would be crazy to not go to UFA and cash in on what might be his last big NHL deal. However, what if the team goes a few rounds in the playoffs and heads into the summer with a real feeling of being just that close to a cup? Would Barrie consider doing another 1 or 2 year deal at similar money to get a cup? Would Holland consider it if it meant coming back next year with the same group on the crowded right side? Would you look to move Bear or Bouchard to address other needs? Lots of possibilities here, and it's nice to have too many good players rather than AHL level D rounding out the roster.


If you're Barrie's agent, and the Oilers are offering a 1-2 year deal, you have to tell your client he'd be crazy to accept it. If he gets hurt, if he gets supplanted by Bouchard, if he just has a rough season, he could be leaving millions and millions on the table. Even if we gave him a big short contract - say $8MMx1 - if he could get even just $6.5x7 from Seattle or someone else, that's $37.5MM difference. You blow out a knee and you have that much less to retire on. It just isn't worth the risk. His entire career earnings to this point are just over $32MM. He can make WAY more than that on this contract likely so he has to follow the money. If it was a choice between $6.5MM for 7 years and $7MM for 8 years, maybe you can make that sacrifice, but to go short term? It would be an insane decision - no matter how much he likes it here.


If you were to pin me down and force me to predict, I would most certainly agree that he would follow the money and earn the most he can before his best days are behind him.

There is something to be said, however, about "fit" and the opportunity to win a championship. Barrie fits well on this team, and there's a reasonable chance that the Oilers are going to bring home a cup in the next few years (FFS I hope). Also, we've seen this story play out time and time again. Player X has a good season ahead of UFA, team Y, looking to make a splash, over pays player X hoping they are the secret sauce to save their franchise! It rarely works out, and usually, the player and team end up unhappy, and often a painful buy-out follows. Barrie may value fit and potential for a cup over the risk of the other scenario. Plus, if he signed a 2-year deal, and the Oilers win a cup year after next, he would be right back in the UFA driver's seat again.

The other X factor here is the flat cap. It's not like other teams don't know that Barrie is far from a perfect player. They aren't going to just look at his points and hand him 6x8M or something like that. He might find that there are less big money, long-term offers out there this summer. I doubt the Oilers would have the best offer, but who knows, they might be able to offer something close, plus fit and opportunity (and 97). At the end of the day, I think he's playing in a different sweater next year.


I'd be leery with Barrie on much more than Larsson/Klefbom money and any more than 4 or 5 years term. He'll probably command $6 or 7 mil with some term elsewhere. Because of his age, and because for once the Oilers have a guys or two system who might approach what Barrie does on their ELC or their 2nd contract. The covid hangover for the cap is the kicker, though, in my opinion. Stagnant cap is making things difficult, and I don't think the cap is going to pop right away when fans return to buildings. You've also got a Nurse contract expiring at the end of next year, and what happens with Klefbom?

Some younger guys who are UFA will possibly sign shorter term deals hoping for cap recovery, and I doubt we see as many young guys coming off their ELC sign long term deals, but guys like Barrie are looking to sign their last big deal with term. Larsson too. Nuge would probably fall into that category as well, but the caveat with Nuge and Larsson is continuity with the community and the franchise. Barrie has no roots or attachments here, I think he's gone.



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 Re: Tyson Barrie Signs w/ Oilers [message #784959 is a reply to message #784955 ]
Wed, 12 May 2021 10:38 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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jds308 wrote on Wed, 12 May 2021 10:11

Adam wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 16:56

jds308 wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 17:34

Adam wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 16:16

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 17:11


Like I said, I don't think signing Barrie is the right call unless he makes it so you have to by coming in so cheap. If he comes back and says just give me what I make now, they'd be crazy to ignore that.


Depends on how long. If he says $4MM a year for eight years, would you do that? It would take him until he's almost 38...


Barrie would be crazy to not go to UFA and cash in on what might be his last big NHL deal. However, what if the team goes a few rounds in the playoffs and heads into the summer with a real feeling of being just that close to a cup? Would Barrie consider doing another 1 or 2 year deal at similar money to get a cup? Would Holland consider it if it meant coming back next year with the same group on the crowded right side? Would you look to move Bear or Bouchard to address other needs? Lots of possibilities here, and it's nice to have too many good players rather than AHL level D rounding out the roster.


If you're Barrie's agent, and the Oilers are offering a 1-2 year deal, you have to tell your client he'd be crazy to accept it. If he gets hurt, if he gets supplanted by Bouchard, if he just has a rough season, he could be leaving millions and millions on the table. Even if we gave him a big short contract - say $8MMx1 - if he could get even just $6.5x7 from Seattle or someone else, that's $37.5MM difference. You blow out a knee and you have that much less to retire on. It just isn't worth the risk. His entire career earnings to this point are just over $32MM. He can make WAY more than that on this contract likely so he has to follow the money. If it was a choice between $6.5MM for 7 years and $7MM for 8 years, maybe you can make that sacrifice, but to go short term? It would be an insane decision - no matter how much he likes it here.


If you were to pin me down and force me to predict, I would most certainly agree that he would follow the money and earn the most he can before his best days are behind him.

There is something to be said, however, about "fit" and the opportunity to win a championship. Barrie fits well on this team, and there's a reasonable chance that the Oilers are going to bring home a cup in the next few years (FFS I hope). Also, we've seen this story play out time and time again. Player X has a good season ahead of UFA, team Y, looking to make a splash, over pays player X hoping they are the secret sauce to save their franchise! It rarely works out, and usually, the player and team end up unhappy, and often a painful buy-out follows. Barrie may value fit and potential for a cup over the risk of the other scenario. Plus, if he signed a 2-year deal, and the Oilers win a cup year after next, he would be right back in the UFA driver's seat again.

The other X factor here is the flat cap. It's not like other teams don't know that Barrie is far from a perfect player. They aren't going to just look at his points and hand him 6x8M or something like that. He might find that there are less big money, long-term offers out there this summer. I doubt the Oilers would have the best offer, but who knows, they might be able to offer something close, plus fit and opportunity (and 97). At the end of the day, I think he's playing in a different sweater next year.


The problem is that his chance to optimize is now. He could stay here and have a couple of good seasons and look to be a free agent again at age 31, but he'd be older - which might hurt term, and what are the odds that he'll lead the league in defenceman points again? It could happen, but if I'm his agent, I'm drumming in to him that there's no guarantee. Anything could happen in two years. He could be slowed by injuries, he could be supplanted on PP1 by Bouchard or someone else, he could get seriously injured and have his career end.

As I said before, I think he's probably willing to take some discount on top dollar in order to have a really good fit. He's been on a team where it wasn't a great fit before, and so I think he will put some value in to that - but I don't think the Oilers should give him a term longer than 2-3 years, or a dollar above $5MM, and I think someone will offer him 7x$7MM. He'd be nuts to pass it up. And we'd be nuts to match that.



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 Re: Tyson Barrie Signs w/ Oilers [message #784911 is a reply to message #784897 ]
Tue, 11 May 2021 19:20 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Adam wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 17:16

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 17:11


Like I said, I don't think signing Barrie is the right call unless he makes it so you have to by coming in so cheap. If he comes back and says just give me what I make now, they'd be crazy to ignore that.


Depends on how long. If he says $4MM a year for eight years, would you do that? It would take him until he's almost 38...


To be fair, he's not making $4M a year right now. If he said $3.5M/yr for 8 years ... I think I would sign him very happily. Dangerous? Possibly. But offence-first defencemen don't deteriorate as rapidly as hard-nosed types.



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 Re: Tyson Barrie Signs w/ Oilers [message #784925 is a reply to message #784897 ]
Wed, 12 May 2021 08:09 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Adam wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 17:16

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 17:11


Like I said, I don't think signing Barrie is the right call unless he makes it so you have to by coming in so cheap. If he comes back and says just give me what I make now, they'd be crazy to ignore that.


Depends on how long. If he says $4MM a year for eight years, would you do that? It would take him until he's almost 38...

I said I would only sign him if he came back and said give me the exact contract I have now. So money and term. If he wanted 2 yrs, then sure I would do that. So he would be forcing the Oilers to sign him because it's such a no brainer. If that were to happen, you find a way to get Bouchard playing time. Spend the summer training Bouchard to play on the left, trade someone else, figure it out.

I don't see it happening and while I am a person who is never really on the players side as I think all contracts should be less, he'd be crazy to agree to that. I supposed money isn't everything, he's made a lot already so as long as he wasn't stupid with it, he should be set for life and your happiness should trump all but there is no way he can't get more than what he makes now. Warts aside, assuming he plays 2 more games, he's going to lead the NHL in dmen points so some teams will offer him more. How can they not.



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 Re: Tyson Barrie Signs w/ Oilers [message #784886 is a reply to message #784866 ]
Tue, 11 May 2021 15:48 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 12:56

It is pretty typical of a segment of Oilers fan to feel the need to carve up a player. Things are going well, team is winning, they look to be a good team so it's hard to complain about the team so they go pick apart a player. He's close to scoring 50 pts in 56 games.

The Oilers PP is #1 in the league, almost 2 % better than any other team but apparently it's not good enough.

McD is on a 155 pt in 82 game pace, numbers we haven't seen since the 80's or early 90's but apparently Barrie is dragging down his points.

I don't see the Oilers resigning just because I think he will price himself out and they have a built in guy that should be able to take over his role mostly in Bouchard for cheap. But I don't get why Oilers fans can't just enjoy things and their players. I still see people carving up Nurse and he will probably get norris vottes. confused2


RD I agree, I'm in the group and you should probably include yourself in the group that can't enjoy things and their players. We all do it from time to time. I had whipping boys for long stretches. Koski is probably the closest thing now, Kahun maybe, Kris Russell.



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