| Goalie [message #850709] |
Tue, 10 March 2026 14:12 |
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 Skookum Jim
Messages: 5908
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC
5 Cups
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Here is an interesting article by Colby Cosh back in 2014 discussing a goalie development hypothesis.. which is: Goalies Do Not Improve with Age.. Bruce Curlock linked to it on his Twitter.
https://macleans.ca/uncategorized/why-goalies-cant-save-them selves/
Thinking about it, its kinda seems true.. falls in line with some of the Oiler goalie picks.. some do improve (he referenced Roloson) but only if they radically change their style and mechanics.. which is what happened with Dubnyk as another example..
Basically if you aren't out performing by 25 or 26 you're not likely to be any better than you have been. Hope Oiler so called "Department of Analytics" (DOA) has been paying attention to this trend..
This article was from 2014.. I'm sure there is better and more abundant data that could expand the study on this hypothesis..
| Quote: |
... What I’m really saying is that that NHL goaltenders approach their peak in quality, relative to the league, earlier than almost anybody thinks. And that in the overwhelming majority of cases, waiting around for a young goaltender who has established mere adequateness to advance and become an all-star contender is probably a waste of time.
Goalies who will ultimately be very good almost always prove it pretty early in their careers. But the converse is obviously not true: many goalies who make an impact at a young age are out of the NHL, or headed that way, by the time they are 30. (Anybody remember Jim Carey, Net Detective? He’s two years younger than Martin Brodeur! Still!) Analyzing goaltenders is difficult for subtle statistical reasons, but it is important to think clearly about the subject. With the Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics approaching, Canadian fans have been alerted to our country’s relative weakness at the position—partly because some young prospects Didn’t Improve.
There are a few threads of evidence pointing towards the GDI hypothesis. But even rough formal study supports it. If you take the last 30 years or so of NHL save-percentage data, and just figure out everybody’s save percentage by age, you’ll be surprised by the early peak. Collectively, goalies seem to max out between the ages of 21 and 23 and then drop off more or less monotonically. (A chart compiled by stats whiz Gabe Desjardins got me thinking about this.)...
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[Updated on: Tue, 10 March 2026 14:14]
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