| Goaler Analysis [message #848679] |
Wed, 26 November 2025 17:13 |
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 Skookum Jim
Messages: 5544
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC
5 Cups
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As the Oil continue their endless Odyssey to find a top percentile NHL goalie.. here is a point by point goalie analysis shopping list compliments of Ryan, a poster over at Lowetide.. it is a pretty comprehensive list of search parameters. Bowman and Co. would be wise to consider before we sell the farm (not tha we have much left except for a few bushels of turnips..) on Binnington.. or some other well known, aged goalie.
https://lowetide.ca/2025/11/26/copperhead-road-2/
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Ryan
November 26, 2025 12:16 pm
How to find an NHL goalie?
Here is my high-level checklist. Hat tip to JP from Boston who used to debate me endlessly on the nuances of this topic. This checklist applies to the non-elite goalie tier, mostly.
Stan, you can send me the cheque via Lowetide.
Goalie Evaluation Heuristics
1. Age under 30. Performance drops accordingly after 30. Non-elite goalies age poorly; journeymen age in dog years.
2. Multi-season consistency matters as a signal. Judge 2–3 years of 5v5 SV% and GSAX; avoid one-year spikes.
3.Recency weighs most. Recent performance is the strongest predictor. Prioritize the last 1–2 seasons over historic peaks
4. Proven starter workload. Huge positive signal if available. Backups face different teams and can’t always handle the workload.
5. High-danger competence. Multi-year HDSV% needs to be at least league average. Persistent HD weakness is fatal in a starter role (Campbell).
6. Context-adjusted performance. Account for defensive environment. Some systems inflate goalies (CAR/MIN), others bury them (ANA/CBJ).
7. No structural red flags. Chronic hip/groin issues, poor rebound control, or slow east-west mechanics are automatic downgrades.
8. Mileage matters. Avoid goalies who had heavy workloads in their early 20s; they often decline before 30. Also look at the total odometer as goalies wear out.
9. Don’t pay for past reputation. Older goalies with big seasons 3–6 years ago are traps.
10. Avoid long contract term. Minimize risk. Goalies are volatile; short deals and low AAV/term protect you from collapse seasons.
You won’t tick every box. The key is to minimize contract risk and never fall in love.
Always be willing to upgrade.
Fade goalies with injury histories.
Don’t bet on journeymen for multiple years after 30. You always want to get a goalie’s best years under contract, not their worst.
Addenda
You don’t just want to acquire a specific goalie name. Your goal is to capture the slice of their best years.
You want a 2015-2018 slice of John Gibson’s career arc, not the 2020-2025 slice.
Now a 2015-20-18 slice of John Gibson is about as good of goaltending as you can get in the modern era, and it’s no longer available. The idea is just to capture the best slice of any goalies career arc.
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[Updated on: Wed, 26 November 2025 17:59]
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