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Oilers » State of the Team - 30% in to the Year

State of the Team - 30% in to the Year [message #776332]	Tue, 16 February 2021 13:32

Adam
Messages: 7176
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

So, 17 games in to the season - just over 30% of the way done, our record is 9-8-0, with 60GF (1st in the NHL) and 58 GA (28th). 14th in goal differential at +2. It's not an easy year to compare entirely, because so many teams have played less games. We're in a 5-way tie for most games, while the Devils have only 9 games in the books so far, but I think it's still clear that we have a team that is strong offensively and suspect on defence/goaltending.

To make it easier to compare apples to apples, I decided to only look at the North Division, since no one else really matters this year.

	GP	GF	GA	GF/G	GA/G	Diff	SF/G	SA/G	Diff	Sv%	Diff	PP%	PK%	Spec Tms
Edm	17	60	58	3.53	3.41	0.12	31.6	32.4	-0.8	89.78%	8	25.40%	74.51%	99.91%
Tor	16	58	44	3.63	2.75	0.88	29.4	27.9	1.5	90.34%	-9	34.80%	78.18%	112.98%
Van	19	57	71	3.00	3.74	-0.74	31.0	33.4	-2.4	88.66%	-8	17.39%	81.82%	99.21%
Win	15	53	43	3.53	2.87	0.67	29.3	31.7	-2.4	91.37%	8	23.40%	79.49%	102.89%
Mtl	15	52	39	3.47	2.60	0.87	34.1	28.3	5.8	91.49%	-12	20.80%	80.00%	100.80%
Cgy	15	44	40	2.93	2.67	0.27	28.1	30.2	-2.1	91.31%	6	22.03%	79.25%	101.28%
Ott	17	40	69	2.35	4.06	-1.71	31.9	31.2	0.7	87.34%	7	12.50%	73.68%	86.18%

The last Diff is special teams differential on penalties drawn vs. taken.

So the Oilers are 6th in the division for shots allowed, combined with 5th in the division in save percentage. Shot numbers don't always tell the whole story - Ottawa for example is the second highest shooting team, but they're shooting from everywhere Eakins-style and not getting rewarded for it. With the Oilers, I think it is accurate we've allowed too many chances, and our goalies are also under-performing.

On special teams, despite some struggles in the last week, the team is the second best powerplay (one of the reasons we're tied for second in GF/G), but the PK has been bad. Only Ottawa's is comparable in allowing so much. I suspect this is an area where we're leaking some of those shots, and it certainly is costing us. We've scored 15 PPG, but despite gettting half a powerplay a game more than our opponents, we've allowed 13 PPGA.

The PK was an area of strength for the team last year so I'm curious as to what's happened leading to the breakdowns this year. Have people dissected Tippett's system? Or is the goaltending just failing the team?

The team has also now had 6 games out of the 17 where they've allowed 5 or more goals with a 1-5 record in those games. They've had 9 games with save percentages below .900 going 2-7 in those nine. In the 8 games where they've had above .900 save percentage, they're 7-1 (only blemish was the 3-1 loss to Montreal). The team has lost FIVE times this year in games where they've scored 3 or more goals.

If we play our best 6 defenceman and get a goalie, I think we have a chance to win the division. Hopefully we can stay in the hunt long enough that Holland can make that happen.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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