| Review:
Los Angeles @ Edmonton (Game #4) [message #843445] |
Sun, 27 April 2025 22:00  |
 OilFans
Messages: 1755
Registered: February 2006
Location: Edmonton
1 Cup
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 3
 4 Final (OT)Score Prediction
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Congratulations to: CrusaderPi for predicting the score.
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g2k
Messages: 2933
Registered: January 2003
Location: The Hood
2 Cups
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#firebob #screwitjustselltheteam #ownerisacreep
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 Kr55
Messages: 11465
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton
6 Cups
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WOW!
Now keep playing this way boys! That was domination in OT.
Hope the Kings start having lots of flashbacks of the last 3 series.
"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013
"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015
5 x $5,000,000
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Oscargasm
Messages: 5937
Registered: May 2009
Location: YEG
5 Cups
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MY PANTS ARE NOT DRAAAAI!!
LETS GOOOOOO!!!
Survivor CHAMP S52 | S66
OG's #MUSTWIN Scale
Category 1 - Lightly Musty
Category 2 - Moderately Musty
Category 3 - Considerably Musty
Category 4 - Severely Musty
Category 5 - Incredibly Musty
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tardigrade81
Messages: 3101
Registered: November 2022
Location: Regina, Saskatchewan
3 Cups
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Yes sir !!!!!!
Pickard was amazing !!!! Series tired baby !!!!
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nullterm
Messages: 1099
Registered: July 2007
Location: Port Moody, BC
1 Cup
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I need a cigarette.
Illegitimi non carborundum.
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PlusOne
Messages: 1655
Registered: July 2006
Location: Regina, Sask
1 Cup
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Everyone who thinks Buochard should be traded for a bag of pucks should remember this game.
THAT is exactly why all 32 teams in the league will overlook defensive issues for an elite offensive RHD!
Survivor LX(I) and 67 Champ(i)on
| CrusaderPi wrote on Thu, 30 January 2020 12:21 |
und(i)sputed O.L.F.N Heavybra(i)n Champ(i)on of the Woooooooooooooooooorld. Plus. One.
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Jay
Messages: 832
Registered: January 2007
Location: Edmonton
No Cups
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| PlusOne wrote on Sun, 27 April 2025 23:14 |
Everyone who thinks Buochard should be traded for a bag of pucks should remember this game.
THAT is exactly why all 32 teams in the league will overlook defensive issues for an elite offensive RHD!
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It's not just this game though. It's the playoffs. I'll take the guy who shows up when the lights are brightest.
"Initiative comes to thems that wait"
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Leia
Messages: 441
Registered: May 2003
Location: England
No Cups
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Where did that OT come from? Where did the legs appear?? At no point did we look like winning till OT. Tied series and a bit of confidence could do us a world of good...
Take me home, country road
to the place where I belong
to Alberta, to see the Oilers
take me home, country road
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smyth260
Messages: 1160
Registered: November 2007
1 Cup
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OT clinic. Reminded me of Sharks vs Oilers in 2017, I believe Klefbom scored that OT winner.
Back to evens.
Clean house or bust
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Skookum Jim
Messages: 4872
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC
4 Cups
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Perry in on almost every goal.. there he was in OT.. net front.. rebound.. pass to Leon .. GWG!
Great OT period.. everyone put on their thinking caps.. everyone almost always on the right side of the puck.. got on pucks.. battled for every loose one..
Character win.
McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!! (Thank you Lord!)
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
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Kr55
Messages: 11465
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton
6 Cups
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| Leia wrote on Sun, 27 April 2025 23:17 |
Where did that OT come from? Where did the legs appear?? At no point did we look like winning till OT. Tied series and a bit of confidence could do us a world of good...
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Kings can't hang with us if we are actually gonna bring a full playoff effort. Elite talent is on ours and other teams in these playoffs. Glad that effort finally came.
Really hope we can bring that OT like effort in the next game.
And hope Knob can use his brain with D pairs.
"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013
"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015
5 x $5,000,000
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nullterm
Messages: 1099
Registered: July 2007
Location: Port Moody, BC
1 Cup
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| Leia wrote on Sun, 27 April 2025 22:17 |
Where did that OT come from? Where did the legs appear?? At no point did we look like winning till OT. Tied series and a bit of confidence could do us a world of good...
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More like the Kings ran out of gas right when we found ours. As the HNIC panel talked about, some of their D are bigger guys who get tired quicker unlike your averaged sized, smooth skating D who can skate all night.
Illegitimi non carborundum.
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Adam
Messages: 7364
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB
6 Cups
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| Kr55 wrote on Sun, 27 April 2025 23:20 |
| Leia wrote on Sun, 27 April 2025 23:17 |
Where did that OT come from? Where did the legs appear?? At no point did we look like winning till OT. Tied series and a bit of confidence could do us a world of good...
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Kings can't hang with us if we are actually gonna bring a full playoff effort. Elite talent is on ours and other teams in these playoffs. Glad that effort finally came.
Really hope we can bring that OT like effort in the next game.
And hope Knob can use his brain with D pairs.
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The Kings not using their fourth line or their bottom two defencemen is going to catch up with them if this goes late. It's interesting - as much as the Oilers don't get enough from their depth players, when you have multiple players with low single-digits for shifts, that's not good.
If they are able to beat us, I think the Kings would be roadkill for the next team anyhow. We better just end their misery ourselves.
"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks
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HamBlaster
Messages: 1144
Registered: June 2007
1 Cup
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I'm eating all my words from earlier. God damn.
They didn't roll over and die. I wish they could just figure out how to get going earlier in the game.
What a goddamn effing win though.
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Kr55
Messages: 11465
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton
6 Cups
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| tardigrade81 wrote on Sun, 27 April 2025 23:11 |
Yes sir !!!!!!
Pickard was amazing !!!! Series tired baby !!!!
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First >0.900 goalie night for us 
"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013
"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015
5 x $5,000,000
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PlusOne
Messages: 1655
Registered: July 2006
Location: Regina, Sask
1 Cup
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| Jay wrote on Sun, 27 April 2025 23:15 |
| PlusOne wrote on Sun, 27 April 2025 23:14 |
Everyone who thinks Buochard should be traded for a bag of pucks should remember this game.
THAT is exactly why all 32 teams in the league will overlook defensive issues for an elite offensive RHD!
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It's not just this game though. It's the playoffs. I'll take the guy who shows up when the lights are brightest.
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100%.
I didn't mean he was here for one game like this. I mas meaning that this game is Bouchard in a nutshell. He made a couple mistake, some fans call for his head, ignoring all of the things he did that very few d'men in the NHL can do.
He played 35 mins, 5 more than any other Oiler, including some PK time. He broke up numerous zone exits and zone entries by the Kings. None of that speaks to the offensive display of greatness.
Whether it is Ekholm coming back or management finding a partner to cover his 6, Bouchard is a major key to the success of this team. Cover his weaknesses and let his positives shine.
Survivor LX(I) and 67 Champ(i)on
| CrusaderPi wrote on Thu, 30 January 2020 12:21 |
und(i)sputed O.L.F.N Heavybra(i)n Champ(i)on of the Woooooooooooooooooorld. Plus. One.
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Kr55
Messages: 11465
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton
6 Cups
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| Skookum Jim wrote on Sun, 27 April 2025 23:19 |
Perry in on almost every goal.. there he was in OT.. net front.. rebound.. pass to Leon .. GWG!
Great OT period.. everyone put on their thinking caps.. everyone almost always on the right side of the puck.. got on pucks.. battled for every loose one..
Character win.
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Even on the 1st PP now haha. Gulutzan I guess finally decided to make his first PP adjustment in 3-4 years? Got tired of polishing that "Best PP Ever" award and realized the PP has been off all year long.
[Updated on: Sun, 27 April 2025 23:35]
"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013
"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015
5 x $5,000,000
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Kr55
Messages: 11465
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton
6 Cups
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| Adam wrote on Sun, 27 April 2025 23:25 |
| Kr55 wrote on Sun, 27 April 2025 23:20 |
| Leia wrote on Sun, 27 April 2025 23:17 |
Where did that OT come from? Where did the legs appear?? At no point did we look like winning till OT. Tied series and a bit of confidence could do us a world of good...
|
Kings can't hang with us if we are actually gonna bring a full playoff effort. Elite talent is on ours and other teams in these playoffs. Glad that effort finally came.
Really hope we can bring that OT like effort in the next game.
And hope Knob can use his brain with D pairs.
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The Kings not using their fourth line or their bottom two defencemen is going to catch up with them if this goes late. It's interesting - as much as the Oilers don't get enough from their depth players, when you have multiple players with low single-digits for shifts, that's not good.
If they are able to beat us, I think the Kings would be roadkill for the next team anyhow. We better just end their misery ourselves.
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That's pretty crazy to get 36:16 from Edmundson. Big lumbering career 19-20 mins guy. Was a 16:30 guy as a younger lad when he won his cup.
Hope that is catching up to them. They are a team that needs to grind out every second of every game with max effort to win.
"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013
"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015
5 x $5,000,000
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Skookum Jim
Messages: 4872
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC
4 Cups
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| Kr55 wrote on Sun, 27 April 2025 22:31 |
| Skookum Jim wrote on Sun, 27 April 2025 23:19 |
Perry in on almost every goal.. there he was in OT.. net front.. rebound.. pass to Leon .. GWG!
Great OT period.. everyone put on their thinking caps.. everyone almost always on the right side of the puck.. got on pucks.. battled for every loose one..
Character win.
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Even on the 1st PP now haha. Gulutzan I guess finally decided to make his first PP adjustment in 3-4 years? Got tired of polishing that "Best PP Ever" award and realized the PP has been off all year long.
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The guy just has elite hand-eye.. quick hands.. elite puck IQ.. never mind his character.. Plus he leads the team in fights (5) .. he's an absolute Beaut.
He has such slick hands.. he can stick handle in a phone booth.. (if you can ever find one) .. wouldn't surprise me if he played high level box lacrosse as a kid..
Hyman beats a puck square before he can put the puck in the net.. he needs a truck load of chances before he cashes..
You could see Perry's skills summarized on the 1st PP goal.. puck goes off Kuemper.. floating in the air.. he bats it down mid air to the ice.. and with one stroke slaps it in the net.. whole sequence was a work of art.
I'd resign him asap.. McDavid and Leon love him.
[Updated on: Mon, 28 April 2025 00:00]
McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!! (Thank you Lord!)
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
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Skookum Jim
Messages: 4872
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC
4 Cups
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| Kr55 wrote on Sun, 27 April 2025 22:42 |
That's pretty crazy to get 36:16 from Edmundson. Big lumbering career 19-20 mins guy. Was a 16:30 guy as a younger lad when he won his cup.
Hope that is catching up to them. They are a team that needs to grind out every second of every game with max effort to win.
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Apparently that was a career high for Edmundson.
[Updated on: Mon, 28 April 2025 00:09]
McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!! (Thank you Lord!)
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
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Skookum Jim
Messages: 4872
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC
4 Cups
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eom
McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!! (Thank you Lord!)
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
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Jay
Messages: 832
Registered: January 2007
Location: Edmonton
No Cups
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| PlusOne wrote on Sun, 27 April 2025 23:27 |
| Jay wrote on Sun, 27 April 2025 23:15 |
| PlusOne wrote on Sun, 27 April 2025 23:14 |
Everyone who thinks Buochard should be traded for a bag of pucks should remember this game.
THAT is exactly why all 32 teams in the league will overlook defensive issues for an elite offensive RHD!
|
It's not just this game though. It's the playoffs. I'll take the guy who shows up when the lights are brightest.
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100%.
I didn't mean he was here for one game like this. I mas meaning that this game is Bouchard in a nutshell. He made a couple mistake, some fans call for his head, ignoring all of the things he did that very few d'men in the NHL can do.
He played 35 mins, 5 more than any other Oiler, including some PK time. He broke up numerous zone exits and zone entries by the Kings. None of that speaks to the offensive display of greatness.
Whether it is Ekholm coming back or management finding a partner to cover his 6, Bouchard is a major key to the success of this team. Cover his weaknesses and let his positives shine.
|
35 min?! Damn.
Agree with all of this. I don't think they can count on ekholm coming back healthy. Was a mistake to do it this year and it bit them. Time to move on if they can. A decent gm should easily be able to find a replacement that can hold down the fort and let 2 do what he does.
Finding someone who can babysit (9.)25?... Well that's another story.
"Initiative comes to thems that wait"
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Jay
Messages: 832
Registered: January 2007
Location: Edmonton
No Cups
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| Skookum Jim wrote on Sun, 27 April 2025 23:49 |
| Kr55 wrote on Sun, 27 April 2025 22:31 |
| Skookum Jim wrote on Sun, 27 April 2025 23:19 |
Perry in on almost every goal.. there he was in OT.. net front.. rebound.. pass to Leon .. GWG!
Great OT period.. everyone put on their thinking caps.. everyone almost always on the right side of the puck.. got on pucks.. battled for every loose one..
Character win.
|
Even on the 1st PP now haha. Gulutzan I guess finally decided to make his first PP adjustment in 3-4 years? Got tired of polishing that "Best PP Ever" award and realized the PP has been off all year long.
|
The guy just has elite hand-eye.. quick hands.. elite puck IQ.. never mind his character.. Plus he leads the team in fights (5) .. he's an absolute Beaut.
He has such slick hands.. he can stick handle in a phone booth.. (if you can ever find one) .. wouldn't surprise me if he played high level box lacrosse as a kid..
Hyman beats a puck square before he can put the puck in the net.. he needs a truck load of chances before he cashes..
You could see Perry's skills summarized on the 1st PP goal.. puck goes off Kuemper.. floating in the air.. he bats it down mid air to the ice.. and with one stroke slaps it in the net.. whole sequence was a work of art.
I'd resign him asap.. McDavid and Leon love him.
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Yep. I always thought it was crazy not to take advantage of the elite hands and hockey IQ that Perry has on the pp. Really the only weakness in his game is foot speed but on the pp that's almost nullified.
From memorial cup to Stanley cup, WCs, Olympics, Hart trophy..This guy has done it all and won everything you can in hockey. Living legend.
"Initiative comes to thems that wait"
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Kr55
Messages: 11465
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton
6 Cups
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| PlusOne wrote on Sun, 27 April 2025 23:14 |
Everyone who thinks Buochard should be traded for a bag of pucks should remember this game.
THAT is exactly why all 32 teams in the league will overlook defensive issues for an elite offensive RHD!
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Playoff Bouch is something else. 3 years in a row now. Wasn't bad in his first year too, coaches just didn't want to give him too much off the offensive ice time cause they liked Barrie.
Side note. Bouch 84% xGF away from Nurse tonight. Nurse 50% away from Bouch. 34% together.
We did specifically hire an analytics guy in the org right? Don't even need analytics to see this.
[Updated on: Mon, 28 April 2025 00:26]
"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013
"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015
5 x $5,000,000
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Adam
Messages: 7364
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB
6 Cups
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| Skookum Jim wrote on Sun, 27 April 2025 23:49 |
| Kr55 wrote on Sun, 27 April 2025 22:31 |
| Skookum Jim wrote on Sun, 27 April 2025 23:19 |
Perry in on almost every goal.. there he was in OT.. net front.. rebound.. pass to Leon .. GWG!
Great OT period.. everyone put on their thinking caps.. everyone almost always on the right side of the puck.. got on pucks.. battled for every loose one..
Character win.
|
Even on the 1st PP now haha. Gulutzan I guess finally decided to make his first PP adjustment in 3-4 years? Got tired of polishing that "Best PP Ever" award and realized the PP has been off all year long.
|
The guy just has elite hand-eye.. quick hands.. elite puck IQ.. never mind his character.. Plus he leads the team in fights (5) .. he's an absolute Beaut.
He has such slick hands.. he can stick handle in a phone booth.. (if you can ever find one) .. wouldn't surprise me if he played high level box lacrosse as a kid..
Hyman beats a puck square before he can put the puck in the net.. he needs a truck load of chances before he cashes..
You could see Perry's skills summarized on the 1st PP goal.. puck goes off Kuemper.. floating in the air.. he bats it down mid air to the ice.. and with one stroke slaps it in the net.. whole sequence was a work of art.
I'd resign him asap.. McDavid and Leon love him.
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Pretty sure that Hyman is still injured. He's working hard out there, but seems off. A little too easy to knock over too.
There's a few things that are a little concerning still like that. Henrique seems to be aging out in real time. He's been pretty ineffective out there, and he and his line have been caught for long periods in our zone all series. With his numbers falling off a cliff too, I wonder if he's just losing a step. I hope he's got a little in the tank and can give a little more. Otherwise I wonder if Philp doesn't get in at some point.
Perry's been huge. McDavid & Draisaitl suddenly tied for the playoff lead in scoring. Bouchard is 2nd among defencemen (behind Cam Fowler of course). Would love to see the supporting cast step up and help us win one of these too though. Hard to count on one of them getting 3-4 points every night!
"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks
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Adam
Messages: 7364
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB
6 Cups
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| Kr55 wrote on Mon, 28 April 2025 00:20 |
Side note. Bouch 84% xGF away from Nurse tonight. Nurse 50% away from Bouch. 34% together.
We did specifically hire an analytics guy in the org right? Don't even need analytics to see this.
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Pretty sure that A) we have hired a couple pretty good analytics people (Michael Parkatti, for example) and that B) no one in management or coaching listens to them at all.
"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks
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MJ
Messages: 274
Registered: November 1997
Location: Victoria
No Cups
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We're tied. We used the backup career man to win two. This is why we watch sports. The storylines out of this game is always so much fun. Go Oilers!
[Updated on: Mon, 28 April 2025 09:03]
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tardigrade81
Messages: 3101
Registered: November 2022
Location: Regina, Saskatchewan
3 Cups
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| MJ wrote on Mon, 28 April 2025 07:46 |
We're tied. We used the backup career man to win two. This is why we watch sports. The storylines out of this game is always so much fun. Go Oilers!
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I wanted Pick to start the entire time. Skinner has been so damn shaky all year, and Pick outside of a handful of games has been unbelievably rock solid in net for the oilers. Very happy they made the switch. Good chance if Skinner starts last night it's a loss
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Oiler76
Messages: 17
Registered: August 2006
Location: Coquitlam, BC
No Cups
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| smyth260 wrote on Sun, 27 April 2025 22:17 |
OT clinic. Reminded me of Sharks vs Oilers in 2017, I believe Klefbom scored that OT winner.
Back to evens.
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I was thinking of that game as well last night, and the goal scorer was the immortal David Desharnais :D
" The Vancouver Canucks: Celebrating Second Round Losses for 50 years!"
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inverno76
Messages: 2433
Registered: September 2005
Location: Prince Albert, Saskatchew...
2 Cups
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| Jay wrote on Sun, 27 April 2025 23:59 |
| PlusOne wrote on Sun, 27 April 2025 23:27 |
| Jay wrote on Sun, 27 April 2025 23:15 |
| PlusOne wrote on Sun, 27 April 2025 23:14 |
Everyone who thinks Buochard should be traded for a bag of pucks should remember this game.
THAT is exactly why all 32 teams in the league will overlook defensive issues for an elite offensive RHD!
|
It's not just this game though. It's the playoffs. I'll take the guy who shows up when the lights are brightest.
|
100%.
I didn't mean he was here for one game like this. I mas meaning that this game is Bouchard in a nutshell. He made a couple mistake, some fans call for his head, ignoring all of the things he did that very few d'men in the NHL can do.
He played 35 mins, 5 more than any other Oiler, including some PK time. He broke up numerous zone exits and zone entries by the Kings. None of that speaks to the offensive display of greatness.
Whether it is Ekholm coming back or management finding a partner to cover his 6, Bouchard is a major key to the success of this team. Cover his weaknesses and let his positives shine.
|
35 min?! Damn.
Agree with all of this. I don't think they can count on ekholm coming back healthy. Was a mistake to do it this year and it bit them. Time to move on if they can. A decent gm should easily be able to find a replacement that can hold down the fort and let 2 do what he does.
Finding someone who can babysit (9.)25?... Well that's another story.
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Nurse had a bad game and like most of the blue line a not so great series, but this is recency bias. He’s quietly turned around his game this season. Bouchard for all of his offensive prowess is still more scary almost every time he’s on the ice and not playing with intensity.
Not to be a Debbie Downer, as he gets up for the big moments, but if he could deliver that kind of play more consistently we wouldn’t need his last minute heroics.
[Updated on: Mon, 28 April 2025 08:50]
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inverno76
Messages: 2433
Registered: September 2005
Location: Prince Albert, Saskatchew...
2 Cups
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Jim Hiller’s post game interview spoke volumes. He’s a knob and rattled. Dandenault and Foegele questioning the penalty, yet that Kings team got away with murder yet again. How did McLovin’ become so unloveable?
This Oil team needs to win game 5 and put the pressure squarely on those
https://youtu.be/nVXh4ySYLis?si=WO8FSJf2yxkwVodg
[Updated on: Mon, 28 April 2025 09:03]
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oilfan94
Messages: 463
Registered: June 2006
Location: USA
No Cups
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It's nice to see that Kings fans are as quick to say the sky is falling as much as Oilers fans are. From the way they are talking it's like they already lost the series. In reality I would still give them the edge because they have the home ice advantage. I am glad the Oilers have battled back and of course they could absolutely win the series, but at this point it is far from a sure thing for either team.
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Kr55
Messages: 11465
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton
6 Cups
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| inverno76 wrote on Mon, 28 April 2025 08:47 |
| Jay wrote on Sun, 27 April 2025 23:59 |
| PlusOne wrote on Sun, 27 April 2025 23:27 |
| Jay wrote on Sun, 27 April 2025 23:15 |
| PlusOne wrote on Sun, 27 April 2025 23:14 |
Everyone who thinks Buochard should be traded for a bag of pucks should remember this game.
THAT is exactly why all 32 teams in the league will overlook defensive issues for an elite offensive RHD!
|
It's not just this game though. It's the playoffs. I'll take the guy who shows up when the lights are brightest.
|
100%.
I didn't mean he was here for one game like this. I mas meaning that this game is Bouchard in a nutshell. He made a couple mistake, some fans call for his head, ignoring all of the things he did that very few d'men in the NHL can do.
He played 35 mins, 5 more than any other Oiler, including some PK time. He broke up numerous zone exits and zone entries by the Kings. None of that speaks to the offensive display of greatness.
Whether it is Ekholm coming back or management finding a partner to cover his 6, Bouchard is a major key to the success of this team. Cover his weaknesses and let his positives shine.
|
35 min?! Damn.
Agree with all of this. I don't think they can count on ekholm coming back healthy. Was a mistake to do it this year and it bit them. Time to move on if they can. A decent gm should easily be able to find a replacement that can hold down the fort and let 2 do what he does.
Finding someone who can babysit (9.)25?... Well that's another story.
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Nurse had a bad game and like most of the blue line a not so great series, but this is recency bias. He’s quietly turned around his game this season. Bouchard for all of his offensive prowess is still more scary almost every time he’s on the ice and not playing with intensity.
Not to be a Debbie Downer, as he gets up for the big moments, but if he could deliver that kind of play more consistently we wouldn’t need his last minute heroics.
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Would argue complimenting Nurse on being slightly above average in the regular season would be recency bias for him. .
Consistently bad for 3 playoffs in a row, and a couple regular seasons surrounding 1 year of being kinda decent playing against middle tier competition most of the year. He set an insanely low bar leading into this season and beat it for a while, great, but this is the time where we need him to perform like he's worth even 1/2 his cap hit.
I do put more of the blame on Knob last night for the hole we dug. Thought it should have been clear already from the season and this series that Bouch+Nurse as a pair should be avoided like the plague.
[Updated on: Mon, 28 April 2025 09:20]
"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013
"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015
5 x $5,000,000
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tardigrade81
Messages: 3101
Registered: November 2022
Location: Regina, Saskatchewan
3 Cups
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| oilfan94 wrote on Mon, 28 April 2025 16:14 |
It's nice to see that Kings fans are as quick to say the sky is falling as much as Oilers fans are. From the way they are talking it's like they already lost the series. In reality I would still give them the edge because they have the home ice advantage. I am glad the Oilers have battled back and of course they could absolutely win the series, but at this point it is far from a sure thing for either team.
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If I was a Kings fan I would be nervous. This is the best team they have iced in the four years we have played them, and arguably this is worse than last year for us you could argue, and yet the series is tied.
I will say I was right in saying we should start pickard. We all said that. And it's paying off big time. He was just unbelievable last night. Even after he gives up a bad goal, it never rattles him. He might be a backup, but he is a fantastic backup. Really glad we got him
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Kr55
Messages: 11465
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton
6 Cups
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| MJ wrote on Mon, 28 April 2025 00:46 |
We're tied. We used the backup career man to win two. This is why we watch sports. The storylines out of this game is always so much fun. Go Oilers!
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The emotional rollercoaster this team puts us on is pretty wild.
"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013
"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015
5 x $5,000,000
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Kr55
Messages: 11465
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton
6 Cups
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| tardigrade81 wrote on Mon, 28 April 2025 09:23 |
| oilfan94 wrote on Mon, 28 April 2025 16:14 |
It's nice to see that Kings fans are as quick to say the sky is falling as much as Oilers fans are. From the way they are talking it's like they already lost the series. In reality I would still give them the edge because they have the home ice advantage. I am glad the Oilers have battled back and of course they could absolutely win the series, but at this point it is far from a sure thing for either team.
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If I was a Kings fan I would be nervous. This is the best team they have iced in the four years we have played them, and arguably this is worse than last year for us you could argue, and yet the series is tied.
I will say I was right in saying we should start pickard. We all said that. And it's paying off big time. He was just unbelievable last night. Even after he gives up a bad goal, it never rattles him. He might be a backup, but he is a fantastic backup. Really glad we got him
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Kings will probably be jacked up on some expired Sudafed they found in an old box from the Sutter days in game 5. Will be interesting to see how we come out after 2 games of crazy emotional swings.
Simple math for the Oilers against the kings. Honest effort anywhere close to what the Kings put in = very high chance of winning. Thinking we can get away with an average effort and just try to win it late = medium/low chance of winning.
[Updated on: Mon, 28 April 2025 09:49]
"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013
"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015
5 x $5,000,000
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benv
Messages: 628
Registered: May 2006
Location: Edmonton
No Cups
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| Oiler76 wrote on Mon, 28 April 2025 08:16 |
| smyth260 wrote on Sun, 27 April 2025 22:17 |
OT clinic. Reminded me of Sharks vs Oilers in 2017, I believe Klefbom scored that OT winner.
Back to evens.
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I was thinking of that game as well last night, and the goal scorer was the immortal David Desharnais :D
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Hard not to think of that game--until last night, it was the last time the Oilers had won a home playoff OT game. It would have been fitting if Frederic had buried that golden chance he had--it would have been very reminiscent of Desharnais--a trade deadline acquisition who barely played in the regular season getting the big OT winner.
The Oilers had lost 6 straight home playoff OT games since that Desharnais game:
Game 4 vs Anaheim (2017)
Game 2 vs Winnipeg (2021)
Game 5 vs Los Angeles (2022)
Game 4 vs Colorado (2022)
Game 1 vs Los Angeles (2023)
Game 2 vs Los Angeles (2024)
Nice to get that monkey off our back.
PS (to smyth260): Klefbom actually got the late tying goal to send that one to OT--probably what you're remembering.
[Updated on: Mon, 28 April 2025 14:34]
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benv
Messages: 628
Registered: May 2006
Location: Edmonton
No Cups
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Random thought I had during last night's game.
During the second intermission one of the panel talking heads (when talking about whether the Oilers should have challenged the Foegele goal) said that he thinks you should only challenge if you are 100% sure of the outcome--he had said the same thing the previous night regarding the Kings' failed challenge.
I have to say as a statistician that I vehemently disagree, since you can actually quite easily do some algebra to figure when you should challenge.
Warning: math nerd stuff below:
Let w be the probability that you will win a challenge.
Let p be the probability that the other team will score on a power play.
So if you don't challenge, the other team gets a goal (but no powerplay) so the net result is -1 for your team.
If you do challenge, then there is a chance of w that the goal will be wiped and no power play for the other team--net result 0. There is a (1-w) chance that the goal will count and the other team will get a power play with a probability of p of scoring on it. So the expected result of challenging the goal is:
w*0 + (1-w)*[(-1) + p*(-1)]
So a challenge will be a zero-sum result when
-1 = (1-w)*(-1-p)
Solving this for w gives w=p/(1+p).
So challenging has a positive expected value as long as the probability of success is greater than p/(1+p). So for different power play successes this works out to:
p=10%: w=9%
p=20%: w=16.7%
p=30%: w=23.1%
p=40%: w=28.6%
p=50%: w=33.3%
p=100%: w=50%
In other words even if the other team was guaranteed to score on their power play, you should still challenge if you think there's a greater than 50% chance of success. Even with a dominant power play of 40%, you only need a 29% chance of being right to make it worthwhile to challenge. During last years playoffs when the Oilers were so dominant on the PK they should probably have been challenging when they felt there was only a 10% chance of success.
Obviously the big variable in all this is that while "p" can be estimated fairly accurately, the value of "w" is highly subjective and a team would only have 30 seconds to a minute to estimate a value for it.
Anyway, you certainly don't need anywhere close to 100% certainty to make challenging worthwhile. 25% certainty is enough for most situations I would think.
[Updated on: Mon, 28 April 2025 11:30]
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