| Oilers trade Ceci + 3rd to San Jose for Emberson [message #837631] |
Sun, 18 August 2024 21:07  |
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 Kr55
Messages: 10865
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton
6 Cups
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Wowzers. 3rd hurts, but is about what you'd expect to have to pay since everyone knows our situation, and we might be getting one back right away because of Holloway. Coffey might shed a tear. Does it mean matching Broberg? Or something else in the works.
Edmonton Oilers @EdmontonOilers
TRADE
The #Oilers have acquired defenceman Ty Emberson from San Jose in exchange for defenceman Cody Ceci & a 2025 third-round draft pick.
#LetsGoOilers
"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013
"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015
5 x $5,000,000
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nullterm
Messages: 1038
Registered: July 2007
Location: Port Moody, BC
1 Cup
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Everything is happening!!!
Illegitimi non carborundum.
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Adam
Messages: 7191
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB
6 Cups
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If what’s been reported is true then Oilers got rid of Ceci’s contract and picked up a young right shot d-man who played 30 games for San Jose and didn’t look out of place in many. That’s absolutely worth the pick.
Mike Grier isn’t very good at this. Another datapoint in the old hockey players make terrible GMs argument.
No matter whether we match or keep, this is probably a good trade but if we don’t match then we will need to pick someone up still because I’m not sure Emberson is the full-time answer just yet and Stecher as top 4 seems not ideal.
"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks
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Kr55
Messages: 10865
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton
6 Cups
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| Adam wrote on Sun, 18 August 2024 21:20 |
If what’s been reported is true then Oilers got rid of Ceci’s contract and picked up a young right shot d-man who played 30 games for San Jose and didn’t look out of place in many. That’s absolutely worth the pick.
Mike Grier isn’t very good at this. Another datapoint in the old hockey players make terrible GMs argument.
No matter whether we match or keep, this is probably a good trade but if we don’t match then we will need to pick someone up still because I’m not sure Emberson is the full-time answer just yet and Stecher as top 4 seems not ideal.
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The whole league had us under a barrel right now. Does Holland get rid of Ceci for a 3rd and get a potential 6/7 RHD back?
Greer does do us a solid here, intentional or not. And Nurse+Ceci era officially ends.
Personally hope that Bowman has another move in mind to get a #4 RHD. Guess we'll see how things play out by Tuesday.
[Updated on: Sun, 18 August 2024 21:45]
"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013
"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015
5 x $5,000,000
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Skookum Jim
Messages: 4449
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC
4 Cups
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Hmm.. shoes are starting to drop.. 👞 >PLOP !<
Emberson is a throw in IMHO.. a glimmer of hope prospect just to make the transaction seem palatable.. magic beans-ville..
Real effect is that it will likely allow keeping Broberg.. and Holloway's replacement is potentially Podzky.. a RW with NHL games..
Mr. Kemp (RHD) got a lot closer to getting in some games this year.. Wanner too..
also.. he's not listed on the Oilers team site.. but Bakersfield signed a RHD-man to the Condors.. Connor Corcoran (24 years old, 6'-2" at 192 lbs) .. kid the Oilers signed.. a year ago.. went to Ft. Wayne.. drafted 5th round 154th overall by Vegas.. not bad skater according to past reports...
OHL Central Scouting filed this report on Corcoran prior to his draft:
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Connor has played both defense and forward for his team this season. He is a good skater with good mobility and puck skills which allow him to carry the puck from the back end and beat forecheckers. Connor is strong along the boards at both ends of the rink and uses his physical size to his advantage. Connor’s versatility will be a big asset for him moving forward in his hockey career.
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We also have Beau Akey (RHD) coming next year.. he'll be good.. 👍🏻👍🏻
St. Louis may be left with just Holloway.. who I think was only added to the offer sheets to put additional pressure on Oilers cap decisions..
[Updated on: Sun, 18 August 2024 23:26]
McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!! (Thank you Lord!)
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Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
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Skookum Jim
Messages: 4449
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC
4 Cups
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Just read on Staples that the Emberson addition has a bit of wrinkle.. Emberson played for the Hartford Wolfpack (NYR farm team) while Knoblach was Head Coach.. Hmmmm .. things got more interesting..
Maybe Knoblach has some insight on the kid?
I also take back my first impressions of him.. he played over 18 minutes a night for SJ and was only a -4 on the worst team in the league..
[Updated on: Sun, 18 August 2024 23:36]
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Skookum Jim
Messages: 4449
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC
4 Cups
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More on Emberson from Bruce Curlock.. said he's seen him play quite a bit (50 times !)
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bcurlock@bcurlock
So I like Ty Emberson a bunch. He played with Holloway at Wisconsin and got to see him plenty.
He makes an excellent pass and is a very good skater.
He is really a 4-6 D. Could he play with Nurse? Jury is out.
The skill Fs for the Oilers will like this player.
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bcurlock@bcurlock
Gonna repeat myself here. I saw Ty Emberson play 50 times between Wisconsin and Tuscon in the AHL.
His skills match the Oil.
His 5v5 pts/60 would have placed him 3rd on Oilers D behind #2, #14.
He also averaged 3.7 shots/g.
#2, #14, and #25 were over 6 shots/g.
Analytical trade IMO
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[Updated on: Mon, 19 August 2024 00:06]
McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!! (Thank you Lord!)
Tic-Tac-Tao!
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Skookum Jim
Messages: 4449
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC
4 Cups
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More scouting reports..
https://lastwordonsports.com/hockey/2018/06/10/ty-emberson-s couting-report-2018-nhl-draft/
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Skating
While he is not a blazing skater, Emberson has good speed in both directions. His acceleration is particularly good. Emberson has strong lateral movement, allowing him to keep attackers in front of him off the rush. He has good edgework and pivots.(1) Emberson transitions quickly from defence to offence and vice-versa. Emberson has a wide stride. He is well-balanced and tough to knock off the puck. This also helps him to battle along the boards and in front of the net.
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(1) Already better than Nurse !
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Defensive Game
Emberson is a very physical defender. Opponents must be wary of coming down his side of the ice with their head down. He maintains a good gap and can explode into a hit if one presents itself. He is also extremely physical in board battles and in clearing the front of the net. Emberson does a good job of not crossing the line though. He does not take a lot of penalties, despite his physical edge. Emberson is also disciplined in his positional play. He takes the hits that present themselves and does not run around and get himself caught out of position often. As mentioned, he is a key penalty killer on the US NTDP squad.
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Projection and Comparison
Emberson will be heading the collegiate route. This will give him time to continue to add muscle to his frame. With his physical style, this will be important as he moves up to play against bigger opponents. It is unlikely that Emberson will ever be a big offensive contributor at the next level. However, he is good enough with the puck that he should not be a liability either. Emberson’s style is similar to Ryan McDonagh, but this is not an indication of potential or ability, merely a look at style.
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[Updated on: Mon, 19 August 2024 00:23]
McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!! (Thank you Lord!)
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
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Adam
Messages: 7191
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB
6 Cups
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| Skookum Jim wrote on Sun, 18 August 2024 23:34 |
Just read on Staples that the Emberson addition has a bit of wrinkle.. Emberson played for the Hartford Wolfpack (NYR farm team) while Knoblach was Head Coach.. Hmmmm .. things got more interesting..
Maybe Knoblach has some insight on the kid?
I also take back my first impressions of him.. he played over 18 minutes a night for SJ and was only a -4 on the worst team in the league..
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It's a pretty reasonable assumption that we wouldn't get back a player who was on the edge of the NHL, especially a young RHD. I don't quite understand what Grier was thinking. You'd think if they were watching the playoffs, they would have concerns about what Ceci can actually bring at this stage. They know the Oilers need help and they take his entire cap hit...but they'll be lucky if the 3rd rounder they got is as good as Emberson in the end.
I guess the argument is that they have a full-time RHD for this season, while we have a guy who may or may not be in the minors, but I don't even know if that assumption holds true. Emberson could be better than Ceci this year - it's not a high bar to clear.
FWIW, if I'm a GM, I'm palling around with all these newer GMs, especially the former players - Grier, Guerin, Staios, Adams...these guys are all primed to make a bunch of mistakes, and I would love to see us help them do it.
As for the Oilers - yesterday's moves would seem to signal that Holloway is gone, and Broberg retained, but that's still not the ideal scenario for us, with Broberg consigned to play his off-side all year, or to be the third LHD at $4.5MM. Maybe there's another shoe yet to drop. Would seem to be an almost ideal time to go shopping - can use the offer sheet as an excuse to talk to teams about a middle pairing RHD and tell them that the second you sign the offer sheet, your ability to do a deal goes down, and with it declines their market for that player...
"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks
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Adam
Messages: 7191
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB
6 Cups
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Couple more opinions on Emberson:
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Sid
@NHL_Sid
I think Ty Emberson has potential. Not a huge sample, but he produced strong defensive results (84th percentile xGA) on an awful team, and his zone exit / retrieval numbers were solid. He's also younger than Bouchard, and has history with Knoblauch.
Really like this addition.
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Mathew Panchyshyn
@mathewjdp
For those asking.
Emberson played top 4 minutes in SJ. He was 1st in DFF% against Elites by a mile. He was the only Dman with a positive goal share vs Elites (min of 20gp). He did this in his rookie year.
Tough to find a good example of a comparable when he's only had one year. If you needed a top 4 RD who's defensively good. You found him. He's a fairly avg player who is sure to be even more impressive under one of the best systems in Edm and alongside a great team.
It can't be understated how significantly Edm upgraded here.
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"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks
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Kr55
Messages: 10865
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton
6 Cups
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| Adam wrote on Mon, 19 August 2024 09:02 |
Couple more opinions on Emberson:
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Sid
@NHL_Sid
I think Ty Emberson has potential. Not a huge sample, but he produced strong defensive results (84th percentile xGA) on an awful team, and his zone exit / retrieval numbers were solid. He's also younger than Bouchard, and has history with Knoblauch.
Really like this addition.
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Mathew Panchyshyn
@mathewjdp
For those asking.
Emberson played top 4 minutes in SJ. He was 1st in DFF% against Elites by a mile. He was the only Dman with a positive goal share vs Elites (min of 20gp). He did this in his rookie year.
Tough to find a good example of a comparable when he's only had one year. If you needed a top 4 RD who's defensively good. You found him. He's a fairly avg player who is sure to be even more impressive under one of the best systems in Edm and alongside a great team.
It can't be understated how significantly Edm upgraded here.
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Man. Would be sweet if Greer messed up royally here.
"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013
"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015
5 x $5,000,000
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welcometotheOC
Messages: 647
Registered: April 2010
Location: Also, sadly, Cowtown
No Cups
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Perhaps Grier is looking to get 1st overall again? 
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Adam
Messages: 7191
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB
6 Cups
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| Kr55 wrote on Mon, 19 August 2024 09:31 |
Man. Would be sweet if Greer messed up royally here.
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Grier!!! He's alumni! You're lucky MJ hasn't set up one of those filters like all the Schremp misspellings give...
"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks
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Kr55
Messages: 10865
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton
6 Cups
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| Adam wrote on Mon, 19 August 2024 09:56 |
| Kr55 wrote on Mon, 19 August 2024 09:31 |
Man. Would be sweet if Greer messed up royally here.
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Grier!!! He's alumni! You're lucky MJ hasn't set up one of those filters like all the Schremp misspellings give...
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Geere is a legend indeed.
"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013
"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015
5 x $5,000,000
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Adam
Messages: 7191
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB
6 Cups
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| Kr55 wrote on Mon, 19 August 2024 10:00 |
| Adam wrote on Mon, 19 August 2024 09:56 |
| Kr55 wrote on Mon, 19 August 2024 09:31 |
Man. Would be sweet if Greer messed up royally here.
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Grier!!! He's alumni! You're lucky MJ hasn't set up one of those filters like all the Schremp misspellings give...
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Geere is a legend indeed.
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"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks
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Kr55
Messages: 10865
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton
6 Cups
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| Adam wrote on Mon, 19 August 2024 10:02 |
| Kr55 wrote on Mon, 19 August 2024 10:00 |
| Adam wrote on Mon, 19 August 2024 09:56 |
| Kr55 wrote on Mon, 19 August 2024 09:31 |
Man. Would be sweet if Greer messed up royally here.
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Grier!!! He's alumni! You're lucky MJ hasn't set up one of those filters like all the Schremp misspellings give...
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Geere is a legend indeed.
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One oilfans filter that always got me was Kr"eu"ger, lol.
Maybe we need a Greire one now, seems like a good guy for Bowman to keep going back to for trades, Mr. Grerie.
"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013
"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015
5 x $5,000,000
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smyth260
Messages: 1086
Registered: November 2007
1 Cup
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Encouraging that we are targeting unknown guys with something good underlying.
I always wonder if guys like Emberson will be like Martin Marincin though. Analytic darling, never made it as a full timer.
Clean house or bust
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Kr55
Messages: 10865
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton
6 Cups
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| smyth260 wrote on Mon, 19 August 2024 11:05 |
Encouraging that we are targeting unknown guys with something good underlying.
I always wonder if guys like Emberson will be like Martin Marincin though. Analytic darling, never made it as a full timer.
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His analytics are 30 NHL games on a terrible team just being able to play free nothing-to-lose hockey. His "vs Elites" NHL experience is 160 minutes, and who knows how much was with his terrible team already down loads of goals and the other team relaxing. His NHL career ice time drops ~33% if we look at ice time within 1 goal. ~350 minutes is this players entire NHL career of being in a somewhat competitive game. So it's definitely hard to make any real conclusions. COuld be a player there, but at least we aren't paying big bucks to find out, it was a nice grab from the Sharks.
Blues making a similar gamble with Broberg right now based on 1.5 weeks of hockey where no matter how many mistakes he made or chances we allowed, the goalie stopped it, so his boxcars look amazing for a tiny sample size.
[Updated on: Mon, 19 August 2024 11:20]
"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013
"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015
5 x $5,000,000
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Adam
Messages: 7191
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB
6 Cups
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| smyth260 wrote on Mon, 19 August 2024 11:05 |
Encouraging that we are targeting unknown guys with something good underlying.
I always wonder if guys like Emberson will be like Martin Marincin though. Analytic darling, never made it as a full timer.
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Marincin’s numbers never suggested he was a star but he was an nhl player. 227 games in the show. That outperforms a lot of Oilers draft picks. The team tends to overhype prospects to the point where people feel they’re failures if they’re in the bottom half of the roster but that’s not really the metric that should be looked at to measure success.
And given the absolutely woeful defence the Oilers trotted out in those years, I think it’s fair to say Marincin could have been better than many of the others we used instead of him. Tough period of hockey all around.
As we’ve discussed with regards to Dellow, analytics has also come a long way. The fact is, even if Emberson never plays a game for the Oilers, flushing Ceci’s contract for just a third round pick is probably a win all on its own. Anything Emberson does is gravy.
"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks
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smyth260
Messages: 1086
Registered: November 2007
1 Cup
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Marincin made it to the show yes but he only had 1 season where he played more than half the games, and on a Leafs team that embraced analytics. They gave him a good try for many years and even felt he was missing something.
I’m all for a move like this where you dump cap and get a potentially useful player back at the same time, just tempering my expectations for the player.
Clean house or bust
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Kr55
Messages: 10865
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton
6 Cups
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Long shot until we see him play, but sounds like a guy Nurse could use. Nurse badly needs a D that is really smart in our zone, and that can make a good first pass. Nurse's wandering and mindless chasing can burn us much less if he is playing with a reliable partner, instead of another wanderer/mindless chaser (Ceci).
Finger crossed we robbed SJ.
"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013
"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015
5 x $5,000,000
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Skookum Jim
Messages: 4449
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC
4 Cups
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| Kr55 wrote on Wed, 04 September 2024 20:28 |
Long shot until we see him play, but sounds like a guy Nurse could use. Nurse badly needs a D that is really smart in our zone, and that can make a good first pass. Nurse's wandering and mindless chasing can burn us much less if he is playing with a reliable partner, instead of another wanderer/mindless chaser (Ceci).
Finger crossed we robbed SJ.
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IMHO the Best (and cheapest) option for improving the Oiler defense is if Nurse improved.. some how.
Better skating (pivots especially), smarter reads, better stick, better blocks, better D-zone awareness, better puck possession, quicker/smarter puck moving.. its a long list.. if he improved in just some of those areas it would be a difference maker.. on and off the ice.. on-ice obviously.. but also less requirement to try a risky, and costly trade.. he shoulda been skating and working on his edges all summer.. here's hoping! 🤞🏻
[Updated on: Wed, 04 September 2024 22:59]
McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!! (Thank you Lord!)
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
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