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Let's have a real talk moment here... [message #818344]	Mon, 20 February 2023 16:32

HamBlaster
Messages: 989
Registered: June 2007

No Cups

I think we can all acknowledge that there are recurring deficiencies on this team, and some new ones that have emerged over the last couple of seasons.

We know the typical culprits... and let's identify the ones that remain versus are solved / are being solved.

A. Goaltending lets the team down, almost every year (STILL AN ISSUE)
B. D is suspect, seems like continual rotation of a ragtag group that the squad chooses to run with, and overpays for below-grade talent (respective to where talent should be in the lineup... #3 is playing as a #1, #4 as a #2, etc) (STILL AN ISSUE)
C. Commitment to details is almost always a total toss-up. (STILL AN ISSUE)
D. Wingers to complement McDavid, Drai and Nuge (FIXED)
E. A lack of secondary scoring (I BELEIVE THIS IS FIXED AS WELL)

A, B, and C alone make this team a very weak contender for a Cup.

Now, for emerging issues with this squad.

F. McDavid, but more evidently Draisaitl, are focused on getting points, not on playing winning hockey
G. Offense-first mentality is drawing players out of position, and resulting in total neglect of a team-wide commitment to proper D
H. The Oilers have virtually no physical presence. No team is walking out of the Rogers barn with any real bumps or bruises.
I. Lack of leadership fails to right the ship when things start to fall apart
J. Blasè attitude seems to be permeating every facet of the squad

These additional five issues almost completely ensure that this team is a non-entity as a contender. D wins championships, and the above five do not fit in that model at all.

So, from a "real talk" perspective... what do you do to change this squad from a bi-polar "also ran" into a legitimate contender. Here's my suggestion...

So much of this team's personality comes from the way Connor and Leon choose to play the game. They need to see significant TOI reduction, regardless of whether they complain about it or not. Leon (in particular) is a bit of a spoiled brat that burns himself out almost every game and becomes a huge defensive liability in the final period. Connor fades too often if the game appears like it's getting away from them, however is the far better two-way player when the team is still fighting for a win. I would say a reduction in TOI and possibly a benching of Drai is in order to help show the rest of the team that they are going to play a defensive-minded game... and in all honesty, I think that's ALL they have to do. Connor and Leon might complain, but let them! The team WILL NOT win playing the way they have, and if those two (again, more so Drai) will not commit to playing a more defensive game on their own accord... maybe it's time to force it upon them.

Sure, an additional piece on the back end to shore up the D might be nice, but a more committed team effort to D should fix a lot of what ails the goaltending situation, and better forward support to the D core should go a long way towards fixing that situation as well. From a physical standpoint, having players in appropriate positioning should give them better opportunities to engage physically, as opposed to chasing the play and just using sticks to disrupt.

Just my opinion... but so much of what ails this team can be fixed from Connor and Drai committing to playing a winning, two-way style of hockey. Foegele called them out (without specifically calling them out) in the post-game after the Colorado game... and he's right. Show the rest of the team that you're going to play a style that they know can win games, instead of just accumulating points.

[Updated on: Mon, 20 February 2023 16:43]

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Re: Let's have a real talk moment here... [message #818347 is a reply to message #818344 ]	Mon, 20 February 2023 19:24

Oscargasm
Messages: 5911
Registered: May 2009
Location: YEG

5 Cups

A lot to digest here Ham. Love the post btw

I’m going to take a ‘the sky isn’t falling’ approach. Something I think can go a long way in helping will be when Kane and Kostin are healthy and when they can get Desharnais back up here. While he’s not flashy, Vinny gives the team an element they don’t have on D and on the PK. *this is also why I’m so hard for the Karlsson potential (though, it’s truly 98% not going to happen) as having him paired with Nurse can allow Darnell to be more of that physical presence many believe he should be.

Another thing that can go a long way for 97, take him off the PK. They need to acquire a 2016(?) Nick Bonino type. Additionally, in doing that you have someone who can then fill the 3C role allowing you to roll 29-97 together as a 5v5 option in which we’ve all seen they enjoy and light the world on fire.

It’s scary, dudes a rookie… but I think Skinner has to be played as the teams #1 right now also.

Regardless. Holland has created a mess with the cap. But he gets paid the big bucks and it’s his job to fix this. Woodcroft’s deployment could be better, but Holland needs to provide the pieces.

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Re: Let's have a real talk moment here... [message #818348 is a reply to message #818347 ]	Mon, 20 February 2023 19:57

CrusaderPi
Messages: 7803
Registered: December 2003
Location: AB Highway 100

6 Cups

I'm not a sky is falling kind of guy either. Mostly because I don't think the sky exists for the Oilers. Their ceiling remains exactly where it has always been. I'm very happy with how I twisted that metaphor in case you're wondering.

I agree with Ham's first E points.

I think points F & G is part of a Faustian bargain the Oilers have made with themselves. McDavid and Draisaitl get to inflate numbers so they stay happy while the Oilers hope this mentality goes away at playoff time. I actually thought this had peaked when McDavid hit 100 points during the bubble season, but then Matthews got 60 goals and a Hart and, well, here we are. I can't imagine where the Oilers would be if McDavid had to play defense and the team still couldn't compete. I shudder to think. Because I don't think McDavid choosing to score less solves the problems with points A & B. This all also contributes to point I because the leaders are allowed to set the standard and the depth is allowed to wait around for goals to be scored. This is the same as point C in my opinion.

Point H is kind of funny. Puljujarvi leads the team in hits while newcomer Kostin is third. Desharnais incidentally doesn't hit. It's pretty clear this team isn't going to win by hard grinding and banging. If you look at hits / game the Oilers have sent 3 of their top 8 hitters down (Niemo, Malone, Holloway) and frequently bench two other top eighters (Puljujarvi, Foegele). Kane, Ceci, and Kostin are the others in the top 8, if you're interested.

To me, this makes the problem pretty obvious. Management. They don't know what they want this team to be and they don't know how to build a winner. I also think it's pretty clear management is meddling in day to day coaching decisions. I'd have that as point K on your list. What in the fresh heck has happened to Woodcroft? Cottoncroft?

[Updated on: Tue, 21 February 2023 10:54]

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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Re: Let's have a real talk moment here... [message #818433 is a reply to message #818348 ]	Wed, 22 February 2023 16:15

RDOilerfan
Messages: 3908
Registered: January 2016

3 Cups

Great post Ham! I agree with a lot of what you say and some of it has been things I have mentioned before but others just turn it into another complaint session about management.

To win in the NHL, you have to score goals but probably more importantly, you need to DEFEND. You need to keep your goals against down to win. What gets lost I think among many Oilers fans including many in here is defending isn't just the job of the 2 guys that play defense in a shift. It's an entire team thing. Would adding another dman help some? Sure it would and I think they do need to add a dman and I think they will but inserting whoever fans want, let's say Chychrun, doesn't solve the problem. He's 1 guy. So if the Oilers trade for Chychrun which would make all the fan GM's happy, but the Oilers team plays how they normally do, it won't improve their defense much.

The Oilers main guys, the guys who set the example, the guys who play the most, and I have said this many, many times, they do not play sound hockey. They play to score. Defense is WAY down on their list of to do's in a hockey game and when I say playing sound hockey with defense in mind, I don't mean dumping the puck in and standing at the center line looking to trap. I mean not taking unnecessary chances when it's not there. Not throwing the blind backhanded, cross ice pass that has to get by 3 defenders standing there waiting for it. Not trying to deke 3 defenders when the rest of your line is changing. Not throwing blind passes up the middle or dropping passes when surrounded by defenders. Or deciding to do a low percentage pinch late in the game when you are the only guy back. Not skating hard on the backcheck. Not picking up your man in front of the goal. Not doing a basic shoulder check to see if someone is behind you. All this stuff happens every single game, many, many, many times. All the little "details" of the game that the coaching staff constantly talks about. All things that trading for Chychrun or whoever doesn't fix.

Look at the Oilers stats if you need proof that the Oilers main guys do not place an emphasis on playing sound, winning hockey vs scoring points. Like I said, I think they need to bring in another dman but as a team, the players need to put more of an emphasis on playing sound hockey because adding 1 dman isn't going to magically make the Oilers a great defending team.

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