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 Kr55
Messages: 12871
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton
6 Cups
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| benv wrote on Mon, 28 April 2025 10:48 |
Random thought I had during last night's game.
During the second intermission one of the panel talking heads (when talking about whether the Oilers should have challenged the Foegele goal) said that he thinks you should only challenge if you are 100% sure of the outcome--he had said the same thing the previous night regarding the Kings' failed challenge.
I have to say as a statistician that I vehemently disagree, since you can actually quite easily do some algebra to figure when you should challenge.
Warning: math nerd stuff below:
Let w be the probability that you will win a challenge.
Let p be the probability that the other team will score on a power play.
So if you don't challenge, the other team gets a goal (but no powerplay) so the net result is -1 for your team.
If you do challenge, then there is a chance of w that the goal will be wiped and no power play for the other team--net result 0. There is a (1-w) chance that the goal will count and the other team will get a power play with a probability of p of scoring on it. So the expected result of challenging the goal is:
w*0 + (1-w)*[(-1) + p*(-1)]
So a challenge will be a zero-sum result when
-1 = (1-w)*(-1-p)
Solving this for w gives w=p/(1+p).
So challenging has a positive expected value as long as the probability of success is greater than p/(1+p). So for different power play successes this works out to:
p=10%: w=9%
p=20%: w=16.7%
p=30%: w=23.1%
p=40%: w=28.6%
p=50%: w=33.3%
p=100%: w=50%
In other words even if the other team was guaranteed to score on their power play, you should still challenge if you think there's a greater than 50% chance of success. Even with a dominant power play of 50%, you only need a 29% chance of being right to make it worthwhile to challenge. During last years playoffs when the Oilers were so dominant in the playoffs they should probably have been challenging when they felt there was only a 10% chance of success.
Obviously the big variable in all this is that while "p" can be estimated fairly accurately, the value of "w" is highly subjective and a team would only have 30 seconds to a minute to estimate a value for it.
Anyway, you certainly don't need anywhere close to 100% certainty to make challenging worthwhile. 25% certainty is enough for most situations I would think.
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Makes sense. Now hard part would be how to calculate the odds of success.
Had disagreement in last post game on the % of success for Hiller's challenge. I honestly thought it was pretty close to 0%. Now matter how much we might think the league would want to overturn our goal, I didn't see anything for them to grab onto to explain why they would have done it. There was nothing holding up Kuemper and he made the decision to sell out jumping to the other post and just laying there praying the play would die and his body laying flat was enough.
On the one last night, for me it's close to 0% too. Especially if you also go in with a belief things will tilt LA's way. The puck was right there where Foegele's stick was. Could easily argue the push on the pad was just an attempt to jam the flopping puck into the net. I'd probably give that one a 10% chance.
"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013
"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015
5 x $5,000,000
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