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 Re: Review: Minnesota @ Edmonton (Game #21) [message #839186 is a reply to message #839177 ]
Thu, 28 November 2024 16:42 Go to previous messageGo to previous message
nullterm  is currently offline nullterm
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Registered: July 2007
Location: Port Moody, BC

1 Cup

Adam wrote on Mon, 25 November 2024 16:18

benv wrote on Fri, 22 November 2024 16:23

inverno76 wrote on Fri, 22 November 2024 14:45



He made one nice save from a good shot from the slot. Cannot remember who took the blast, but Skinner made a glove save from just above his left pad. That being said, it was a good save and one a goalie may let in once out 20 shots, but that is where we are right now and it needs to be better.






Sorry, I can't help but put on my math nerd hat here.

If the shot was one that a typical goalie would let in 1 out of 20 times, that implies the shot would have a typical save % of 0.950. League wide save % generally hovers around 0.900 (I believe) so a shot that would generate a 0.950 save% would be a below average shot (goalies would stop it more than a typical shot).

I would think a "good" save would have to be one where the typical save% would be well below 0.900 (probably quite a bit below).




Of course the issue for Skinner is that .900 is so often not there. I'd argue the line should be higher too.

There are currently 18 goalies in the league with more than 8 appearances who have .910 save percentage. If we're looking for a goalie capable of winning the Stanley Cup, I'd argue that top-18 in the position is probably a minimal expectation.

There's 31 goalies with a .901 or better, so maybe that's a reasonable expectation of a starting netminder, but the Oilers shouldn't be satisfied with the bare minimum for a starter given the expectations on this team. Skinner's .882 is way below that (41st in the league with that minimum # of games).

Individual game stats aren't the best to look at individually, since each goal is a huge swing when you only see 20-40 shots in a given night, but looked at in batches it can be pretty telling. Skinner's played in 15 games this year and he's only been over .900 in 7 of them.

Ultimately those are challenging stats if we're to believe he's the guy who can get us a Cup...I mean, he almost single-handedly blew the Vancouver series for us last year, so while he played really well against Dallas, I think if I could upgrade there, I would be doing so in a hurry.


If you are a team with SCF aspirations, you need a top 16 goalie. Skinner's a good guy, but not in that category. Top 32, yeah. But if that's your starter, you're in the bottom half of NHL teams at the most critical position.

I know Campbell was the plan, but whoa boy did that blow up. And the team seems content to sit on Skinner, when they need to make upgrading the position as a whole the priority.

Skinner or Pickard as backup to a top 15... now you're talking.



Illegitimi non carborundum.

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