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 Kr55
Messages: 12884
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton
6 Cups
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| Kr55 wrote on Wed, 13 November 2024 17:01 |
| benv wrote on Wed, 13 November 2024 16:24 |
| smyth260 wrote on Wed, 13 November 2024 16:17 |
Travis Yost posted a figure today.
Our PK is 1st in expected goals against, but last in actual goals against. Can’t beat that spread!
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I assume expected goals are computed on scoring chances alone (ignoring quality of goaltending?).
Does this mean our bad penalty kill is all on goaltending? I thinkgoaltending has been a factor, but from my eye test, I think the Oilers have been sloppy on the PK as well.
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I'm not sure if any models is ordinary folks have access to can tell the different between a 1-timer off to the side of the net that comes after a cross crease pass that we allow to go right though us, and a shot from the side of the net from the same place. Obviously one of these has a far better chance to go in.
Over time though, your excepted GA/60 and actual GA/60 should start to converge a little if you are getting league average goaltending.
Right now PK xGA/60 is 5.49. Next closest team is LA with 5.61. Worst team is Anaheim with 11.31
PK GA/60 is 15.41. next closest team is 14.66, the Islanders with xGA/60 7.35. Best is Philly with 3.23 and xGA/60 8.39.
So, some other teams have a spread. Lots of Oilers fans praising Sorkin, but the Islanders have a 7 GA/60 difference in real vs expected, vs our 10. Sorkin's PK results are a bit better than Skinner.
Pickard has been worse than Skinner in terms of GA/60. He has 7 GA in 16:55 PK time. Skinner has 9 against in 45:22.
Bad luck, bad PKing, bad goaltending. I think we are getting the triple whammy. But maybe can say the actual PKing is 3rd place on what's killing us.
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I'm gonna disagree with myself here actually lol.
I'd actually lean to the system being an issue more than goalie if the goalie's sav% is vastly different on the PK than even strength. That is the case for a guy like Sorkin, and Pickard. Skinner as well, but Skinner is below average even strength too, but not nearly out of line as he is with his PK stats.
I can't find any comments anywhere using stats like sportlogIQ or something that accounts for puck movement/goalie movement required before shots. I personally think the data is likely hiding the amount of open net we allow teams to shoot at with poor defending. Although our goalies are not exactly the quickest movers, so they play a role in those chances being even more golden.
"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013
"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015
5 x $5,000,000
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Review:
Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) |
By: OilFans on Tue, 12 November 2024 21:30 |
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Re: Review: Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) |
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Re: Review: Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) |
By: Kr55 on Tue, 12 November 2024 21:48 |
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Re: Review: Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) |
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Re: Review: Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) |
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Re: Review: Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) |
By: Adam on Wed, 13 November 2024 10:03 |
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Re: Review: Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) |
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Re: Review: Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) |
By: PlusOne on Wed, 13 November 2024 21:58 |
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Re: Review: Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) |
By: Adam on Wed, 13 November 2024 09:39 |
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Re: Review: Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) |
By: oilfan94 on Wed, 13 November 2024 10:40 |
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Re: Review: Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) |
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Re: Review: Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) |
By: smyth260 on Wed, 13 November 2024 12:24 |
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Re: Review: Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) |
By: benv on Wed, 13 November 2024 13:40 |
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Re: Review: Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) |
By: Adam on Wed, 13 November 2024 14:37 |
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Re: Review: Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) |
By: benv on Wed, 13 November 2024 15:16 |
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Re: Review: Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) |
By: smyth260 on Wed, 13 November 2024 16:17 |
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Re: Review: Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) |
By: benv on Wed, 13 November 2024 16:24 |
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Re: Review: Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) |
By: Kr55 on Wed, 13 November 2024 17:01 |
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Re: Review: Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) |
By: Kr55 on Wed, 13 November 2024 22:23 |
