OilFans.com :: Fan Forum: Oilers => Review: Buffalo @ Edmonton (Game #67)

Skookum Jim wrote on Fri, 22 March 2024 17:29

Kr55 wrote on Fri, 22 March 2024 15:17

It's interesting that Bouch without Ekholm actually has his xGF go up from 62.04% to 65.19% at 5v5. Ekholm drops to 54.73% but with tougher zone starts. Maybe there is Ceci time in there too which is a huge handicap of course.

Ekholm with Nashville never had number close to what he has had with Bouch here. He actually struggled pretty badly with a young D the year we acquired him. Under 50% xGF the 2 seasons before we got him. He was never really a headliner name on D, usually a 2nd pair guy behind Josi, lots of his career playing a rigid system. Successful regular season system that never seemed to pan out in playoffs minus one year. Somehow now his career is magically peaking at 33 years of age.

Statistically, our best pair this year is Kulak+Bouchard. 71.35% xGF. For contrast, Kulak+Vinny 57.35%, Kulak+Ceci 50.79%.

Small samples, but Ekholm+Vinny 40.95%, Ekholm+Ceci 38.35%.

One day ppl might have to consider Bouch helps Ek just as much as Ek helps Bouch. It's just a really good pair with 2 guys that compliment eachother well.

Ekholm always stood out to me when we played Nashville, he was an absolute wall.. I was ecstatic when we got him.

I also think a lot of those GF GA stats need to include "time vs. elites" in their deciphering to get the real picture..

Also some of the pairings listed above; Kulak/Bouchard (75 minutes) .. Ekholm/Vinny (21 minutes).. Ekholm/Ceci (28 minutes).. I'd say are probably pretty small sample size to draw any big conclusions.

Below for reference are chances (CF/60, CA/60), goals GF/60, GA/60..

* I'd suggest any pairings with under 100 minutes 5v5 is relatively weak statistically..

2023/2024

D-Combos		                TOI 5v5		CF/60		CA/60		CF%		GF/60		GA/60		  GF%	     xGF/60	      xGA/60		xGF%

Mattias Ekholm & Evan Bouchard		985:10		71.1		47.3		60.1%		3.78		2.31		62.0%	     3.62		2.22		62.0%
Cody Ceci & Darnell Nurse		840:18		62.8		61.8		50.4%		2.64		2.50		51.4%	     3.1		2.87		51.9%
Brett Kulak & Vincent Desharnais        586:09		56.7		48.8		53.7%		2.15		1.64		56.8%	     2.66		1.98		57.4%
Cody Ceci & Brett Kulak		        181:25		57.6		60.9		48.6%		2.65		3.31		44.4%	     2.77		2.69		50.8%
Darnell Nurse & Vincent Desharnais	151:35		54.2		55.8		49.3%		1.19		1.98		37.5%	     2.01		2.34		46.2%
Brett Kulak & Evan Bouchard		74:57		84.1		44.0		65.6%		6.40		3.20		66.7%	     5.00		2.01		71.4%
Darnell Nurse & Evan Bouchard		66:18		79.6		53.4		59.9%		3.62		3.62		50.0%	     3.52		2.74		56.2%
Mattias Ekholm & Darnell Nurse		57:32		88.6		56.3		61.2%		3.13		1.04		75.0%	     3.14		2.88		52.2%
Brett Kulak & Philip Broberg		41:33		46.2		59.2		43.8%		4.33		2.89		60.0%	     2.63		2.63		50.0%
Brett Kulak & Darnell Nurse		38:58		63.1		63.1		50.0%		3.08		4.62		40.0%	     2.39		1.83		56.6%
Cody Ceci & Evan Bouchard		38:41		60.5		38.8		60.9%		1.55		0		100.0%	     4.06		2.03		66.7%
Vincent Desharnais & Evan Bouchard	32:13		52.2		46.6		52.8%		1.86		1.86		50.0%	     2.77		2.17		56.0%
Mattias Ekholm & Cody Ceci		28:33		54.6		61.0		47.3%		0		2.1		0.0%	     1.52		2.45		38.4%
Mattias Ekholm & Brett Kulak		27:10		92.8		42.0		68.9%		2.21		0		100.0%	     5.25		1.73		75.2%

Ekholm (Career)

Ekholm		       TOI 5v5		CF/60		CA/60		CF%		GF/60		GA/60		GF%		xGF/60		xGA/60		xGF%
20112012 - NSH		22:46		57.9		44.8		56.4%		0.00		2.63		0.0%		1.53		1.28		54.5%
20122013 - NSH		15:01		55.9		24.0		70.0%		0.00		3.99		0.0%		3.13		1.54		67.0%
20132014 - NSH		916:01		49.9		49.6		50.1%		2.29		2.75		45.5%		2.1		1.82		53.6%
20142015 - NSH		1285:31		58.4		45.3		56.3%		2.71		2.05		56.9%		2.41		1.72		58.3%
20152016 - NSH		1362:00		53.4		46.6		53.4%		2.56		2.07		55.2%		2.28		1.79		55.9%
20162017 - NSH		1540:21		58.0		50.5		53.5%		2.22		1.95		53.3%		2.28		1.97		53.6%
20172018 - NSH		1427:45		64.1		53.6		54.5%		2.73		2.27		54.6%		2.57		2.28		52.9%
20182019 - NSH		1504:13		60.2		51.3		54.0%		2.59		1.95		57.0%		2.57		2.25		53.3%
20192020 - NSH		1231:15		57.8		57.2		50.3%		2.73		2.97		47.9%		2.54		2.52		50.2%
20202021 - NSH		819:31		56.5		54.3		51.0%		3.15		1.61		66.2%		2.35		2.42		49.3%
20212022 - NSH		1311:37		52.2		54.3		49.0%		2.97		2.29		56.5%		2.34		2.37		49.7%
20222023 - NSH		948:55		60.1		54.1		52.6%		2.02		2.21		47.8%		2.92		2.41		54.8%
20222023 - EDM		355:18		65.7		46.6		58.5%		5.24		1.69		75.6%		3.63		2.27		61.6%
20232024 - EDM		1119:48		72.4		48.0		60.2%		3.54		2.14		62.3%		3.61		2.3		61.1%

Bouchard (Career)

Bouchard		TOI 5v5		CF/60		CA/60		CF%		GF/60		GA/60		GF%		xGF/60		xGA/60		xGF%
20182019 - EDM		71:10		59.9		51.4		53.8%		0.84		3.37		20.0%		2.71		2.33		53.8%
20202021 - EDM		189:24		61.8		57.3		51.9%		1.58		2.53		38.5%		2.26		2.43		48.2%
20212022 - EDM		1306:07		66.2		53.4		55.3%		2.85		2.71		51.2%		3.02		2.63		53.5%
20222023 - EDM		1234:46		64.5		48.7		57.0%		3.21		2.77		53.7%		3.26		2.39		57.7%
20232024 - EDM		1202:36		71.9		47.3		60.3%		3.84		2.39		61.6%		3.74		2.23		62.7%

Yeah, samples are small over other pairs. Ek and Bouch play together a lot. Bouch seems to play apart from Ek more, but that's because Ek was injured. Ek has very little time away from Bouch. 200 minutes total at 5v5 in the last 2 seasons. Not much to really draw any conclusions from.

Ev elites is hard to combine with pairs. Bouch technically has more ice time this season than Ek vs Elite players according to Puck IQ.

I think those stats you show display pretty well how Ek is suddenly performing the best of his career at the ripe young age of 32/33. 1 year removed from Nashville considering him the guy they could toss as a cap dump after just giving him a 4 year deal. It's just a good pair and we and Holland are very lucky. Bouch is making plays all night long. Ek is slower passing IMO and does a lot of the ring arounds, but positionally he's great and almost always in the right spot. That's what you want. A puck mover either passing (Bouch) or transporting (Nurse) and a solid defender. We forgot the solid RHD piece for Nurse unfortunately. Ceci always seems to think he is the elite puck mover and Nurse is supposed to back him up.

Not trying to bash Ek btw. Just IMO ppl are overrating him, and I think sometimes it is coupled with a need to underrate Bouch at the same time. Bouch needs a solid defender, Ek needs a puck mover. They are both elite at what they do, and the result is a pair that is performing as one of the best in the entire NHL. Like a top 5 in the league D pair, consistently. Bouch IMO is the harder type of player to find as well. There are lots of solid defenders out there that you could put with Bouch and get similar results. Not as good probably, but close. It's hard to find players that compliment each other this well. There are far fewer elite 5v5 puck movers out there that you could put with Ekholm and get similar results. That's my opinion of course.

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000