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Re: Erosion of Value [message #824815 is a reply to message #824811 ]	Fri, 30 June 2023 15:57

Adam
Messages: 7041
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

benv wrote on Fri, 30 June 2023 15:40

A few issues I have with the narrative of your post:

1) You look solely at what the return was on the Oilers' first round picks while ignoring what that pick actually contributed to the team. Who cares what the Oilers got for a past his prime Ales Hemsky in 2013--they got a dozen productive years out of the player. I'm sure they could have traded him in 2007 and got a better return than they did but they would have missed out on several productive Hemsky years. The Oilers thought it would be more useful to hang on to the player. These trades need to be evaluated by comparing the return the Oilers received and balance it with what the players did as Oilers and what they did once they left the Oilers.

2) You are looking at the list in isolation without comparing it to other teams. If we made a similar list for every team in the league would the Oilers be near the bottom in terms of getting the most out of their picks? Maybe, but you present no evidence of this and just assume it on your authority to be true. I remember a few years somebody on here (it might have been you) made a similar list (I think it was about how poor the Oilers' drafted goalies turned out), so I picked a team at random at did the same thing--and lo and behold the lists were very similar.

3) For the majority of the period you list, the Oilers were not a Stanley Cup contender and thus were more likely to hang on to their draft picks rather than trade them. We've seen now that they are in contention mode they are making the kinds of trades you want with the Ekholm deal (giving up their 2022 and 2023 first rounders). In 10 or 15 years we will be able to evaluate the careers of Schaeffer and Molendyk and evaluate the trade. Maybe they both turn into stars, maybe they both bust--we just don't know right now. Would either case make you re-evaluate the Ekholm trade? I don't think it should.

As for Yamamoto, I don't understand some of your arguments. They could have traded him two years ago and probably got some value for him, but at that time they thought it was better to hang on to him so he could contribute to the team--they did not have the clairvoyance to see the position they would be in today--nor do you. I guess you can criticize the contract they signed him to, but if they really want him at a lesser value, they could always sign him for less as a UFA once Detroit buys him out.

Anyway I agree with some posters on here that your hatred of Oilers' management is effecting your thinking. To paraphrase Raylan Givins: If you think one Oilers' GM is incompetent, then he's probably incompetent. If you think every Oilers' GM is incompetent, then maybe there's something else going on.

Where have you seen competence? I have had some level of hope for almost all of them. If you were around here long enough, I was an early defender of Kevin Lowe. I had thought the move to bring in Tambellini was promising off the narrative that he was basically considered a GM-in-waiting by everyone in the league. MacT - I liked as a coach, although man that got off to a train-wreck start. I was hopeful that Harvard was more than just a place where Chiarelli played hockey. Holland - I was never a fan because he's been in decline for ages. He wasn't good at drafting or trading when with Detroit, and sucked hard at cap management and contract negotiations, so really, I haven't been surprised to see him struggle here with those things.

I get that people want to be positive, but our doomsday clock is at about 10:30 now. We need not just adequate management - we need excellence.

As I've said repeatedly, in isolation, Yamamoto trade is meh. It could be worse. It's when you look at the whole picture that it is more of the same thing. I did provide a couple of examples of a contending team who did better because they didn't hold on to their prospects until they'd evaporated every last bit of value. They figured out who they needed, and they made trades early. The Oilers have done that once, with Schaefer - although he was a small part of a really big package for Ekholm, and after that the GM decided he didn't want to do any more work and tried to call an early presser.

I mean, a good comparable for the Puljujarvi situation is Tampa and Jonathan Drouin. They rehabilitated him within the team, then crushed the Habs in a trade for Sergachev that is still paying dividends. They traded several more first round picks for pieces that helped them win back to back Cups. They traded Howden for JT Miller and Ryan McDonagh. They traded Nolan Foote for Blake Coleman.

Maximizing on assets is important - how many trades can you remember the Oilers winning in the last decade or two?

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
~~#FireLowe~~ #FireBobbyNicks #FireKenHolland #FireKeithGretzky

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Erosion of Value	By: Adam on Fri, 30 June 2023 15:04
Re: Erosion of Value	By: benv on Fri, 30 June 2023 15:40
Re: Erosion of Value	By: Adam on Fri, 30 June 2023 15:57
Re: Erosion of Value	By: inverno76 on Fri, 30 June 2023 17:26
Re: Erosion of Value	By: Goose on Fri, 30 June 2023 19:42
Re: Erosion of Value	By: inverno76 on Sat, 01 July 2023 10:59
Re: Erosion of Value	By: Dragon_Matt on Sat, 01 July 2023 12:31

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