benv wrote on Fri, 07 May 2021 18:06

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 06 May 2021 22:27 Just FYI, since records are fun Steven Psihogios @StevenPsihogios Mikko Koskinen is the 1st goalie to earn 0 saves on 4+ shot attempts since Washington Capitals goalie Don Beaupre did so on November 24, 1989. He is the 3rd goalie to earn 0 saves on 4+ shot attempts since the NHL began tracking saves during the 1955-56 season. #LetsGoOilers Here are the stat lines from the other two netminders, Beaupre and Dan Bouchard. 0-for-4 is a universally bad line regardless of the sport you play. McDavid with 12 points in his last 12 periods too. Had a 15 points in 15 periods run right before on pointless game vs the Lames on April 29th. So I was browsing the stats page and noticed Koskinen's crappy performance last night reduced his save% to 0.900. This got me thinking that if a typical goalie stops 1 out of 10 shots, then the probability of letting in four consecutive goals on any four consecutive shots is 1/10000. So in any game the probability that a goalie WON'T let in the first 4 shots is 0.9999. Thus in a typical year of 1230 games the probability of this never happening is 0.9999^2460 = 78%. So the probability of a goalie letting in the first four goals happening during a season would be about 22%. So it should happen about once every five years. My point is, it seems odd that this happens so rarely. Even if I increase the sv% to 0.910, it would be about 15%. I wonder if the research above was for a single goalie. I'm guessing most goalies who let in the first three goals are pulled, and thus don't have the opportunity to let in the fourth. I wonder if we looked for a TEAM getting scored on in the first four shots we would find more.

If you’re looking at it from a probability point of view, you’d have to factor in that shot quality varies as well, lowering the probability of a goal on each of the four shots.

You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you just might find, you can get a lottery pick.