benv wrote on Fri, 07 May 2021 18:06

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 06 May 2021 22:27 Just FYI, since records are fun Steven Psihogios @StevenPsihogios Mikko Koskinen is the 1st goalie to earn 0 saves on 4+ shot attempts since Washington Capitals goalie Don Beaupre did so on November 24, 1989. He is the 3rd goalie to earn 0 saves on 4+ shot attempts since the NHL began tracking saves during the 1955-56 season. #LetsGoOilers Here are the stat lines from the other two netminders, Beaupre and Dan Bouchard. 0-for-4 is a universally bad line regardless of the sport you play. McDavid with 12 points in his last 12 periods too. Had a 15 points in 15 periods run right before on pointless game vs the Lames on April 29th. So I was browsing the stats page and noticed Koskinen's crappy performance last night reduced his save% to 0.900. This got me thinking that if a typical goalie stops 1 out of 10 shots, then the probability of letting in four consecutive goals on any four consecutive shots is 1/10000. So in any game the probability that a goalie WON'T let in the first 4 shots is 0.9999. Thus in a typical year of 1230 games the probability of this never happening is 0.9999^2460 = 78%. So the probability of a goalie letting in the first four goals happening during a season would be about 22%. So it should happen about once every five years. My point is, it seems odd that this happens so rarely. Even if I increase the sv% to 0.910, it would be about 15%. I wonder if the research above was for a single goalie. I'm guessing most goalies who let in the first three goals are pulled, and thus don't have the opportunity to let in the fourth. I wonder if we looked for a TEAM getting scored on in the first four shots we would find more.

That makes sense, that lots of goalies would not be given the chance to let the 4th one in. Wonder if there is also a chance in the psychology of team putting the goals in, that you start sitting back after the 2nd goal and even more after the 3rd, increasing the chance that a team would just send some weak muffin on net because of a more defensive posture to make it harder to score the 4th one.

[Updated on: Fri, 07 May 2021 18:28]

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