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 PlusOne
Messages: 1735
Registered: July 2006
Location: Regina, Sask
1 Cup
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| OilPeg wrote on Thu, 21 July 2016 13:01 |
| Goose wrote on Thu, 21 July 2016 11:37 |
The best argument that I've seen that the Oilers should have stood pat was basically that if you build the top 9 as follows:
Pouliot/Nuge/Ebs - proven line that has played against top comp in the past and post a positive GF/GA ratio.
Hall/Drai/Yak - Hall/Drai were fantastic together and posted a positive GF/GA ratio. They played mostly with Purcell until the deadline, but Yak shouldn't drag them below 50%
Maroon/McDavid/Puljujarvi - get the softest minutes and eat 3rd line forwards and 2nd/3rd pairing defencemen for lunch. And if opposing coaches key in on this line on the road, the other two lines take advantage of the easier minutes.
If the Oilers have three lines outscoring the opponents, there's no way the 4th line is enough to drag them down below 50% overall in GF/GA ratio and really that's the whole point of hockey - score more goals than the other guys.
It's a strong argument, but I think there are a few issues:
- goaltending is the great equalizer. And if Talbot falls prey to the same demons that afflicted the past 8 or 12 goalies here because they are getting peppered by Grade A scoring chances every night, then that's an issue.
- it's a cliche, but defence wins championships. The above scenario is a great theory, but teams just don't win Cups without either a stud on defence or a solid group that goes 6 deep - the Oilers have neither. They are not perfect yet, but much closer than they were.
- Klefbom's injury history concerns me. I think he's a great player and I think him and Larsson can be a really great pair. But if he gets injured again, the whole system is chaos. Having a legit 1st pairing guy on the right side provides some insurance against that, as the Oilers are much deeper on the left side and can slide guys up much more easily now that they have an anchor on the right side.
- The cap has to be a consideration. Klef/Larsson now represent a very good value legitimate 1st pair. Not that Hall's contract wasn't good value, but it was higher in absolute terms, which makes the issue even more complex.
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I'm with you Goose, I think we're better today than before the trade and I think the reason is right in your post about what the lines could have been had we kept Hall. Your example lists them as:
Pouliot-Nuge-Eberle
Hall-Drai-Yak
Maroon-McD-Puljujarvi
The Oilers have taken this line up and switched Hall for Lucic while upgrading their D tremendously. That can't be understated. There's no reason why they can't compete and do the things your link suggest with Lucic instead of Hall, might have to juggle things a little, but it will still work. You don't even have to play Lucic with McDavid either, just because the media says that's where he's going to play, doesn't mean he will.
I understand the argument that some people are making that you can't look at the trade as being Hall for Larsson PLUS Lucic and PLUS Pujujarvi, but at the same time I kind of think you have to. Had the Blue Jackets not passed on Puljujarvi and had Lucic's meeting not gone well with the club prior to free agnecy, then the trade probably doesn't happen as it does. But those events did happen, and that led to the trade. I don't like that it was one-for-one, but I do like the team better today than I did before the trade.
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I would agree with you both about the lines if this was a video game. While I do believe in advanced stats to a (large) degree as an analytical tool the biggest problem most people agreed on in the last bunch of years is that the Oilers had good to great forwards but if the puck is in the back of your net, the face off is in your end or you are hemmed in for long periods of a shift that talent is underutilized.
I believe the Oilers didnt need a pure puck mover. They needed players to solidify the back end. Limit high % scoring chances, clear the puck from the net and then the zone and win battles. They had hoped Fayne would be that guy.
It seems Larsson can help with those to some degree, some to a high degree.
I think the reason that Hall and McDavid were still successful was the fact that they had the speed to drive the play, often from our own blue line to the other teams end. I think that having Larsson back there will give an uptick to the entire group in that they dont have to feel so nervous in the Oilers end. They can perform their assignment in the zone and be ready for a proper breakout when the time comes.
This will allow, Drai, Eberle, Yak, JP etc a lot more opportunities to make plays as they shouldnt be stuck in their own end for such prolonged periods of time. I cant even begin to count the amount of shift with our high end forwards that ended with them not getting across center ice....
I also dont see the trade anything more than one for one and is clear the Oilers lost that in a pure analysis.
With the addition of Lucic and JP on top of that trade I do believe the Oilers are an overall better team. Do I want the Oilers to rush JP to the NHL? Do I think Lucic has 2 years too much term? That is a longer discussion for another time but for the next 2-4 years I think the Oilers are better now than if they had not traded Hall.
Survivor LX(I) and 67 Champ(i)on
| CrusaderPi wrote on Thu, 30 January 2020 12:21 |
und(i)sputed O.L.F.N Heavybra(i)n Champ(i)on of the Woooooooooooooooooorld. Plus. One.
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Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: NetBOG on Fri, 24 June 2016 17:42 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
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By: Mike on Fri, 24 June 2016 17:46 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Steve on Fri, 24 June 2016 17:49 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Gator21 on Fri, 24 June 2016 19:23 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: jds308 on Fri, 24 June 2016 17:49 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Gator21 on Fri, 24 June 2016 17:52 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Magnum on Fri, 24 June 2016 18:09 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Kr55 on Fri, 24 June 2016 17:51 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Kr55 on Mon, 27 June 2016 11:49 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Kr55 on Mon, 27 June 2016 12:11 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Goose on Wed, 29 June 2016 10:45 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: OilPeg on Wed, 29 June 2016 13:29 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Magnum on Fri, 24 June 2016 18:10 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: NetBOG on Fri, 24 June 2016 18:13 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: MJ on Fri, 24 June 2016 18:24 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: jds308 on Fri, 24 June 2016 18:33 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: jds308 on Fri, 24 June 2016 18:50 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: NetBOG on Fri, 24 June 2016 18:57 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Adam on Mon, 27 June 2016 10:36 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: JPro on Fri, 24 June 2016 18:46 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Kr55 on Fri, 24 June 2016 23:58 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Kr55 on Sat, 25 June 2016 09:11 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Gator21 on Sat, 25 June 2016 14:58 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Adam on Fri, 06 March 2020 14:36 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Kr55 on Mon, 27 June 2016 10:20 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Adam on Mon, 27 June 2016 22:45 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Adam on Wed, 20 July 2016 17:36 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Skoobz on Wed, 20 July 2016 19:25 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Goose on Wed, 20 July 2016 20:57 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Adam on Thu, 21 July 2016 08:42 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Goose on Thu, 21 July 2016 10:37 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: OilPeg on Thu, 21 July 2016 13:01 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: PlusOne on Thu, 21 July 2016 13:20 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Goose on Thu, 21 July 2016 13:40 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Steve on Thu, 21 July 2016 14:32 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Kr55 on Fri, 26 August 2016 09:12 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Magnum on Fri, 26 August 2016 10:06 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Magnum on Fri, 26 August 2016 10:49 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Adam on Fri, 26 August 2016 10:21 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Adam on Fri, 06 March 2020 14:41 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Kr55 on Sun, 17 December 2017 10:23 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Kr55 on Fri, 18 January 2019 11:39 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Adam on Fri, 18 January 2019 12:46 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Kr55 on Fri, 18 January 2019 12:44 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Adam on Fri, 18 January 2019 12:51 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Adam on Fri, 18 January 2019 13:13 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Goose on Fri, 18 January 2019 13:22 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Kr55 on Fri, 18 January 2019 14:41 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Adam on Fri, 18 January 2019 16:38 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: g2k on Fri, 18 January 2019 19:24 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: NetBOG on Fri, 18 January 2019 19:39 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: g2k on Fri, 18 January 2019 20:26 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Adam on Fri, 18 January 2019 21:38 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Adam on Sun, 20 January 2019 00:50 |
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By: g2k on Sun, 20 January 2019 07:13 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Xombie on Fri, 18 January 2019 20:38 |
