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Thoughts on Season to Date [message #853745]	Thu, 05 November 2026 17:12

Adam
Messages: 7792
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

It's been fun to see the Oilers at the top of the leaderboard to start the year. Some pretty entertaining games, and even when they've failed to have a great game, the bounces have gone our way. For putting ourselves in a position to succeed, the hot start really helps.

All that said, I fear that all this whole “Babcock has rebuilt the Oilers” stuff is all a sham. Oilers are tied for 1st in GF and even after the last two games they're 3rd in PP%.

But they're 14th in GA, and 21st in PK% and that’s despite having the 6th best sv% in the league. On top of that, we are 22nd in shot/game, 23rd in shot attempts while being 12th in shots against/game.

So we are shooting at a 16.1% clip - likely unsustainable - and our goaltending is likely on a heater, unless you believe the Jarry/Levi/Tomkins team to really be among the league’s elite.

Id suggest that having the best player in the world playing out of this world has been a major factor but that the underlying numbers are concerning. I'd further posit that the schedule has been favourable so far. Only one back-to-back and probably 2/3rds of the games against teams who are bubble teams at best this year.

On top of all that, we've seen more of the same when it comes to depth - scoring has all been driven by the big boys. McDavid on for an incredible percentage of the team's goals, and when they're off the ice, we get caved in generally. It's been a little better since Nuge has returned - the second line has produced a little bit, but it's not like we're the Hurricanes of last year getting production from top to bottom on the roster.

If McDavid continues on a 200+ point pace, then the Oilers are going to be hard to beat but if he falls off at all, or if, god forbid, he gets hurt, then we might be in for some comeuppance. At any rate, it's McDavid, Bouchard & Draisaitl who should be getting the credit for our run - not the coach. If those three had had this start last year, then Knoblauch is still here.

There's been some discussion about how the team has moved from a rush attack to a dump and retrieve attack and how this has limited some of the scoring against. That might be but the shot numbers suggest that the Oilers aren't outplaying teams. It's not generating more offence - we're just scoring on more of our shots. Again - amazing if that's maintainable, but how many teams have shot 16% over the course of a full season? I imagine not many since the early 1990s.

Hopefully I'm wrong, and we start to see the depth actually contribute more meaningfully and the goaltending really is world class.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

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Re: Thoughts on Season to Date [message #853747 is a reply to message #853745 ]	Thu, 05 November 2026 18:01

tardigrade81
Messages: 4729
Registered: November 2022
Location: Regina, Saskatchewan

4 Cups

Honestly well said. That’s how I feel would like to see the bottom 6 produce more, but the defense has been good and goaltending been rock solid

Levi will hopefully be back soon. Jarry is hurt. See how Tomkins does holding the fort

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Re: Thoughts on Season to Date [message #853750 is a reply to message #853747 ]	Thu, 05 November 2026 18:12

welcometotheOC
Messages: 735
Registered: April 2010
Location: Also, sadly, Cowtown

No Cups

Jarry is sick, no?

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Re: Thoughts on Season to Date [message #853751 is a reply to message #853747 ]	Thu, 05 November 2026 18:14

NZ Oiler Fan
Messages: 1662
Registered: October 2006
Location: Summerside, PEI

1 Cup

I'm not as concerned about shots for vs shots against too much.
IIRC we dominated shots for/against under Eakins, and we know all too well how that worked out forrl us.

I'm more concerned with high danger shots for/against and expected goals for/against.
I haven't delved into those stats, but by the eye test (excluding the 1st 2 games and the total no show vs the Leafs) we have been MUCH better at reducing those high danger chances against. We could have had in his prime Hasek or Brodeur in net, but even they wouldn't have been able to stop thosehigh danger chances we would routinely give up. I'd contest that our better sv% is a result of allowing lower quality shots on net, rather than giving up 5-10 grade A chances a game like we've done previously.

Call me cautiously optimistic at this stage. I've been burned by this team too many times to be anything more than that.

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Re: Thoughts on Season to Date [message #853780 is a reply to message #853751 ]	Thu, 05 November 2026 21:15

Kr55
Messages: 13247
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

Reducing the amount of rush chances against has probably given our goalies, Jarry especially, a shot to actually survive. That comes at the cost of way less risk in the neutral zone though. Our play in our own zone has generally been better too I think, letting our goalies see stuff, actually covering guys around the net and slot.

I think Babs is reaching the same conclusion as all our previous coaches though, a lot of this lineup is crap. Injuries haven't helped of course, but man, the center depth is still really bad if you are looking for any offense. Nuge's line looking as good as it has IMO is a minor miracle so far, not many coaches have managed to have a Nuge centered line score goals and look decent for any period of time since Eberle was driving play for Nuge. get to the third line though, Dickenson has barely any offensive skill, and there is not much else there.

Need Hyman back, need Levi back. At least we should have a good 2nd line and a good goalie. Our 2nd D pair being anchored by Shea is way better than any Nurse experiment as well, so we usually have 2 decent D pairs every night.

Tiny improvements. Hopefully we can inch towards our analytics improving.

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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Re: Thoughts on Season to Date [message #853785 is a reply to message #853751 ]	Fri, 06 November 2026 08:47

Adam
Messages: 7792
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

NZ Oiler Fan wrote on Thu, 05 November 2026 18:14

This is one of those things where the memory plays tricks on you. Eakins WAS concerned about Corsi and pushed for shots from all over but it did not result in the Oilers outshooting their opponents.

https://www.nhl.com/stats/teams?report=outshootoutshotby& ;reportType=season&seasonFrom=20132014&seasonTo=2013 2014&gameType=2&sort=netShotsPerGame&page=0& pageSize=50

As this shows, in Eakins full season coaching the team in 2013-14 the Oilers were 28th out of 30 for shot differential at -6.0/game.

Eakins knew that there was a correlation between teams with strong Corsi performance and teams that win a lot of games - you can see this with almost any shot differential metric. Using that season for example, the top-five teams in shot differential were San Jose, Chicago, Los Angeles, New York and St. Louis. Those teams finished 5th, 7th, 10th, 12th and 4th in the standings. The Rangers and Kings made the finals, the Blackhawks made the semis, the Blues lost to Chicago and San Jose lost to LA in the first round.

You can't game it though - more shots of meagre quality don't result in more goals, they result in lower shooting percentages.

It's hard to be successful with negative differentials though - like the Oilers of 2013-14, if you're outshot every game, it usually goes poorly for you. Now, the Oilers of today aren't -6.0, they're only -0.8 which is middle of the road - but we're all watching the games - we know that the Oilers carry the play when the first line is on, and hang on for dear life when it's almost anyone else on the ice. Our depth is getting caved in, and when it's not 97, 29 & 2 putting on a show, we probably are closer to that 2013-14 number.

We've been fortunate to see one of the best 5-6 weeks of hockey ever played by an individual - McDavid has been absolutely dominant and not just on the powerplay. He's +21, Draisaitl is +16, and Bouchard is +23. Ekholm is +20 and those are the top four in the entire league at that stat right now. But our depth is almost all in the negatives and our depth defence hasn't looked very good either. Walman looking like the most expensive 7th defenceman in the league, Murphy making Kris Russell look stingy when it comes to allowing zone entries...we've had some significant issues and when you look at that, it's hard to give a lot of kudos to the coaching. The team is still a one-line team and it's the stars that are the difference to this point in the season.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

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Re: Thoughts on Season to Date [message #853787 is a reply to message #853785 ]	Fri, 06 November 2026 12:35

Kr55
Messages: 13247
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

Adam wrote on Fri, 06 November 2026 08:47

NZ Oiler Fan wrote on Thu, 05 November 2026 18:14

This is one of those things where the memory plays tricks on you. Eakins WAS concerned about Corsi and pushed for shots from all over but it did not result in the Oilers outshooting their opponents.

https://www.nhl.com/stats/teams?report=outshootoutshotby& ;amp ;reportType=season&seasonFrom=20132014&seasonTo=2013 2014&gameType=2&sort=netShotsPerGame&page=0& pageSize=50

As this shows, in Eakins full season coaching the team in 2013-14 the Oilers were 28th out of 30 for shot differential at -6.0/game.

Eakins knew that there was a correlation between teams with strong Corsi performance and teams that win a lot of games - you can see this with almost any shot differential metric. Using that season for example, the top-five teams in shot differential were San Jose, Chicago, Los Angeles, New York and St. Louis. Those teams finished 5th, 7th, 10th, 12th and 4th in the standings. The Rangers and Kings made the finals, the Blackhawks made the semis, the Blues lost to Chicago and San Jose lost to LA in the first round.

You can't game it though - more shots of meagre quality don't result in more goals, they result in lower shooting percentages.

It's hard to be successful with negative differentials though - like the Oilers of 2013-14, if you're outshot every game, it usually goes poorly for you. Now, the Oilers of today aren't -6.0, they're only -0.8 which is middle of the road - but we're all watching the games - we know that the Oilers carry the play when the first line is on, and hang on for dear life when it's almost anyone else on the ice. Our depth is getting caved in, and when it's not 97, 29 & 2 putting on a show, we probably are closer to that 2013-14 number.

We've been fortunate to see one of the best 5-6 weeks of hockey ever played by an individual - McDavid has been absolutely dominant and not just on the powerplay. He's +21, Draisaitl is +16, and Bouchard is +23. Ekholm is +20 and those are the top four in the entire league at that stat right now. But our depth is almost all in the negatives and our depth defence hasn't looked very good either. Walman looking like the most expensive 7th defenceman in the league, Murphy making Kris Russell look stingy when it comes to allowing zone entries...we've had some significant issues and when you look at that, it's hard to give a lot of kudos to the coaching. The team is still a one-line team and it's the stars that are the difference to this point in the season.

Not giving credit to old Dallas for "cracking the code" in 2014? :)

When Dallas was fired here were the Oilers Corsi/shots:

Corsi: 50.90% (14th)
Fenwick: 49.59 (20th)
Shots: 49.37% (21st)
Goals: 39.32% (30th - last)
xGF: 48.67% (22nd)

SH%: 6.52% (27th)
sav%: 0.9018 (29th)
PDO: 0.967 (30th)

Eakins was very proud of himself on the way out for figuring out how to game corsi's. But not much winning came out of it and he was given another shot by the Ducks to put his ideas to work, and nadda.

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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Re: Thoughts on Season to Date [message #853786 is a reply to message #853745 ]	Fri, 06 November 2026 09:21

mightyreasoner
Messages: 598
Registered: October 2005
Location: Edmonton

No Cups

The one thing I will say as a silver lining is they've done this despite being hit by injuries pretty harshly.

Nugent-Hopkins, our 2C, was out for the first few weeks.
Hyman, a Top-6 winger, has missed much of the year.
Savoie, a Top-6 winger has missed all of the year.
Howard, maybe our most skilled depth player, is out several weeks.
Anderson, one of our two best goalies has been out all year.
Levi, one of our two best goalies is out for several weeks.

So basically our whole second line has missed most of the year. Having them back would force everyone down a bit.

Kapanen, Dickinson, Formenton is our third line
Howard, Dach, Joseph is our fourth line.

Michaels and Frederic in the pressbox.

Jones and Hallander on waivers to Bakersfield.

Everyone is playing up a line higher than they should be this year, and maybe that improves our depth a little if they aren't.

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