| Thoughts on Season to Date [message #853745] |
Thu, 05 November 2026 17:12  |
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 Adam
Messages: 7791
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB
6 Cups
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It's been fun to see the Oilers at the top of the leaderboard to start the year. Some pretty entertaining games, and even when they've failed to have a great game, the bounces have gone our way. For putting ourselves in a position to succeed, the hot start really helps.
All that said, I fear that all this whole “Babcock has rebuilt the Oilers” stuff is all a sham. Oilers are tied for 1st in GF and even after the last two games they're 3rd in PP%.
But they're 14th in GA, and 21st in PK% and that’s despite having the 6th best sv% in the league. On top of that, we are 22nd in shot/game, 23rd in shot attempts while being 12th in shots against/game.
So we are shooting at a 16.1% clip - likely unsustainable - and our goaltending is likely on a heater, unless you believe the Jarry/Levi/Tomkins team to really be among the league’s elite.
Id suggest that having the best player in the world playing out of this world has been a major factor but that the underlying numbers are concerning. I'd further posit that the schedule has been favourable so far. Only one back-to-back and probably 2/3rds of the games against teams who are bubble teams at best this year.
On top of all that, we've seen more of the same when it comes to depth - scoring has all been driven by the big boys. McDavid on for an incredible percentage of the team's goals, and when they're off the ice, we get caved in generally. It's been a little better since Nuge has returned - the second line has produced a little bit, but it's not like we're the Hurricanes of last year getting production from top to bottom on the roster.
If McDavid continues on a 200+ point pace, then the Oilers are going to be hard to beat but if he falls off at all, or if, god forbid, he gets hurt, then we might be in for some comeuppance. At any rate, it's McDavid, Bouchard & Draisaitl who should be getting the credit for our run - not the coach. If those three had had this start last year, then Knoblauch is still here.
There's been some discussion about how the team has moved from a rush attack to a dump and retrieve attack and how this has limited some of the scoring against. That might be but the shot numbers suggest that the Oilers aren't outplaying teams. It's not generating more offence - we're just scoring on more of our shots. Again - amazing if that's maintainable, but how many teams have shot 16% over the course of a full season? I imagine not many since the early 1990s.
Hopefully I'm wrong, and we start to see the depth actually contribute more meaningfully and the goaltending really is world class.
"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks
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 tardigrade81
Messages: 4717
Registered: November 2022
Location: Regina, Saskatchewan
4 Cups
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Honestly well said. That’s how I feel would like to see the bottom 6 produce more, but the defense has been good and goaltending been rock solid
Levi will hopefully be back soon. Jarry is hurt. See how Tomkins does holding the fort
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welcometotheOC
Messages: 735
Registered: April 2010
Location: Also, sadly, Cowtown
No Cups
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Jarry is sick, no?
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NZ Oiler Fan
Messages: 1662
Registered: October 2006
Location: Summerside, PEI
1 Cup
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I'm not as concerned about shots for vs shots against too much.
IIRC we dominated shots for/against under Eakins, and we know all too well how that worked out forrl us.
I'm more concerned with high danger shots for/against and expected goals for/against.
I haven't delved into those stats, but by the eye test (excluding the 1st 2 games and the total no show vs the Leafs) we have been MUCH better at reducing those high danger chances against. We could have had in his prime Hasek or Brodeur in net, but even they wouldn't have been able to stop thosehigh danger chances we would routinely give up. I'd contest that our better sv% is a result of allowing lower quality shots on net, rather than giving up 5-10 grade A chances a game like we've done previously.
Call me cautiously optimistic at this stage. I've been burned by this team too many times to be anything more than that.
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