| Goaler Analysis [message #848679] |
Wed, 26 November 2025 17:13  |
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 Skookum Jim
Messages: 5546
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC
5 Cups
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As the Oil continue their endless Odyssey to find a top percentile NHL goalie.. here is a point by point goalie analysis shopping list compliments of Ryan, a poster over at Lowetide.. it is a pretty comprehensive list of search parameters. Bowman and Co. would be wise to consider before we sell the farm (not tha we have much left except for a few bushels of turnips..) on Binnington.. or some other well known, aged goalie.
https://lowetide.ca/2025/11/26/copperhead-road-2/
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Ryan
November 26, 2025 12:16 pm
How to find an NHL goalie?
Here is my high-level checklist. Hat tip to JP from Boston who used to debate me endlessly on the nuances of this topic. This checklist applies to the non-elite goalie tier, mostly.
Stan, you can send me the cheque via Lowetide.
Goalie Evaluation Heuristics
1. Age under 30. Performance drops accordingly after 30. Non-elite goalies age poorly; journeymen age in dog years.
2. Multi-season consistency matters as a signal. Judge 2–3 years of 5v5 SV% and GSAX; avoid one-year spikes.
3.Recency weighs most. Recent performance is the strongest predictor. Prioritize the last 1–2 seasons over historic peaks
4. Proven starter workload. Huge positive signal if available. Backups face different teams and can’t always handle the workload.
5. High-danger competence. Multi-year HDSV% needs to be at least league average. Persistent HD weakness is fatal in a starter role (Campbell).
6. Context-adjusted performance. Account for defensive environment. Some systems inflate goalies (CAR/MIN), others bury them (ANA/CBJ).
7. No structural red flags. Chronic hip/groin issues, poor rebound control, or slow east-west mechanics are automatic downgrades.
8. Mileage matters. Avoid goalies who had heavy workloads in their early 20s; they often decline before 30. Also look at the total odometer as goalies wear out.
9. Don’t pay for past reputation. Older goalies with big seasons 3–6 years ago are traps.
10. Avoid long contract term. Minimize risk. Goalies are volatile; short deals and low AAV/term protect you from collapse seasons.
You won’t tick every box. The key is to minimize contract risk and never fall in love.
Always be willing to upgrade.
Fade goalies with injury histories.
Don’t bet on journeymen for multiple years after 30. You always want to get a goalie’s best years under contract, not their worst.
Addenda
You don’t just want to acquire a specific goalie name. Your goal is to capture the slice of their best years.
You want a 2015-2018 slice of John Gibson’s career arc, not the 2020-2025 slice.
Now a 2015-20-18 slice of John Gibson is about as good of goaltending as you can get in the modern era, and it’s no longer available. The idea is just to capture the best slice of any goalies career arc.
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[Updated on: Wed, 26 November 2025 17:59]
McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!! (Thank you Lord!)
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
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HamBlaster
Messages: 1277
Registered: June 2007
1 Cup
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A little off topic, but holy hell was Matheson on Skinner hard in today's interview. Unfortunately, he didn't take ownership of his own frustration and just dumped it on the fans... but the comments about "we need a better goalie, the fans keep saying that... need another goalie, a better one... how does that make you feel?"
Tossed the fans under the bus, but at least letting Stu know that the base is less than impressed. Kind of a win / lose take from Jim.
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 Jay
Messages: 1150
Registered: January 2007
Location: Edmonton
1 Cup
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| HamBlaster wrote on Thu, 27 November 2025 18:21 |
A little off topic, but holy hell was Matheson on Skinner hard in today's interview. Unfortunately, he didn't take ownership of his own frustration and just dumped it on the fans... but the comments about "we need a better goalie, the fans keep saying that... need another goalie, a better one... how does that make you feel?"
Tossed the fans under the bus, but at least letting Stu know that the base is less than impressed. Kind of a win / lose take from Jim.
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Why on earth are the Oilers still letting this lazy freeloading hack into the building? Matheson I mean.
"Initiative comes to thems that wait"
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Adam
Messages: 7601
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB
6 Cups
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| Jay wrote on Fri, 28 November 2025 06:11 |
| HamBlaster wrote on Thu, 27 November 2025 18:21 |
A little off topic, but holy hell was Matheson on Skinner hard in today's interview. Unfortunately, he didn't take ownership of his own frustration and just dumped it on the fans... but the comments about "we need a better goalie, the fans keep saying that... need another goalie, a better one... how does that make you feel?"
Tossed the fans under the bus, but at least letting Stu know that the base is less than impressed. Kind of a win / lose take from Jim.
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Why on earth are the Oilers still letting this lazy freeloading hack into the building? Matheson I mean.
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Yeah, I mean, it's not like Skinner is living under a rock. He's aware the Oilers need better than .500 netminding out of him. He's not struggling on purpose just to piss us off.
I don't really understand what the purpose of a question like that is. Sometimes I think Matheson (like Terry Jones) believes that they are part of the team and that part of the job is to motivate players where others cannot. Only thing is that no one on the current team thinks he's relevant so they're not getting a lot out of that other than annoyance.
"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks
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Kr55
Messages: 12233
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton
6 Cups
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I can't confirm this, but this person claiming a Leafs and Flames fan were front of line for Skinner's autograph.
stony @StonyOil
The two guys in the front of the Skinner line were a Flames & a Leafs fan who wanted to tell him how appreciative they are…
That’s the level we’re at 😭
Video of them explaining their (possibly sarcastic) support of Skinner
https://x.com/StonyOil/status/1994222299780677944
"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013
"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015
5 x $5,000,000
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Jay
Messages: 1150
Registered: January 2007
Location: Edmonton
1 Cup
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| Adam wrote on Fri, 28 November 2025 09:54 |
| Jay wrote on Fri, 28 November 2025 06:11 |
| HamBlaster wrote on Thu, 27 November 2025 18:21 |
A little off topic, but holy hell was Matheson on Skinner hard in today's interview. Unfortunately, he didn't take ownership of his own frustration and just dumped it on the fans... but the comments about "we need a better goalie, the fans keep saying that... need another goalie, a better one... how does that make you feel?"
Tossed the fans under the bus, but at least letting Stu know that the base is less than impressed. Kind of a win / lose take from Jim.
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Why on earth are the Oilers still letting this lazy freeloading hack into the building? Matheson I mean.
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Yeah, I mean, it's not like Skinner is living under a rock. He's aware the Oilers need better than .500 netminding out of him. He's not struggling on purpose just to piss us off.
I don't really understand what the purpose of a question like that is. Sometimes I think Matheson (like Terry Jones) believes that they are part of the team and that part of the job is to motivate players where others cannot. Only thing is that no one on the current team thinks he's relevant so they're not getting a lot out of that other than annoyance.
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Journalists are the absolute worst.
Remember these are people who have spent their entire lives with this level of entitlement and self importance - and for a lot of them have spent years, even decades shaping public opinion and wielding a ton of power. People like Matheson, Jones, Specter etc have had (and to some extent still do) the influence to ruin careers just based on being the ones have had access to the vehicle to distribute their garbage lazy analysis. These are the people that blew a gasket when the coach removed the donuts from their media slop troughs. The ones who cry about having to take non direct flights to Florida. They are the ones "in the trenches". The majority of them have never actually worked a day in their lives, are extremely well off but lack any sense of self-awareness or humility.
Of course it's only sports and we are talking about milionaire athletes so it isn't that serious - but within this bubble they are about as repulsive as it gets.
"Initiative comes to thems that wait"
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Kr55
Messages: 12233
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton
6 Cups
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Would have been great to try to do this search for a trade for our ideal goalie in the summer after we were a cup finalist.
Now? No way a team is gifting us a young and consistently good goalie without us selling the farm to get him. If we miss the playoffs or have a crap playoff run with goaltending clearly being a major cause? It won't be much easier this coming summer. And things can snowball from there if we are still too scared to take a chance on a goalie to try to make our team not appear so pathetic in that position.
Trying to go from poop to perfection would be extremely difficult. Maybe need a stepping stone first. First make us not look like goaltending is going to tank us singlehandedly with some passable goalies. Stop the entire world from knowing we're desperate to pull out goaltending out of the gutter and at least be around average there. Then try to make another move for this ideal goalie.
too bad we gave 4M of cap space for 8 years to an AHL-tier winger (IMO incorrectly listed as C. Maybe he could play C in the AHL), or we would have a lot more cap space to play with this year to try to make that stepping stone move.
[Updated on: Fri, 28 November 2025 09:23]
"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013
"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015
5 x $5,000,000
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Jay
Messages: 1150
Registered: January 2007
Location: Edmonton
1 Cup
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| Kr55 wrote on Fri, 28 November 2025 09:16 |
Would have been great to try to do this search for a trade for our ideal goalie in the summer after we were a cup finalist.
Now? No way a team is gifting us a young and consistently good goalie without us selling the farm to get him. If we miss the playoffs or have a crap playoff run with goaltending clearly being a major cause? It won't be much easier this coming summer. And things can snowball from there if we are still too scared to take a chance on a goalie to try to make our team not appear so pathetic in that position.
Trying to go from poop to perfection would be extremely difficult. Maybe need a stepping stone first. First make us not look like goaltending is going to tank us singlehandedly with some passable goalies. Stop the entire world from knowing we're desperate to pull out goaltending out of the gutter and at least be around average there. Then try to make another move for this ideal goalie.
too bad we gave 4M of cap space for 8 years to an AHL-tier winger (IMO incorrectly listed as C. Maybe he could play C in the AHL), or we would have a lot more cap space to play with this year to try to make that stepping stone move.
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That isn't the Oiler way though. They always need to wait for their assets to hit rock bottom before moving on. The most obvious play in the world this summer would have been to move on from Ekholm and Skinner. And they probably could have gotten real assets/cap room back. Now? Not so much.
Yeah the Frederick deal is just continuing to double down on terrible analysis from their pro scouting. Remember they paid extra for him so the bruins would retain salaray only for him to miss the rest of the regular season anyway! lol
Mmm I wonder if there's anyone that money could have been spent on that is low risk, provides grit and leadership and is inanely clutch in big moments. Maybe someone playing for the Kings  Nah that isn't someone they could use.
"Initiative comes to thems that wait"
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