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Review: Minnesota @ Edmonton (Game #21) [message #839111]	Thu, 21 November 2024 21:30

OilFans
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Re: Review: Minnesota @ Edmonton (Game #21) [message #839114 is a reply to message #839111 ]	Thu, 21 November 2024 21:37

HamBlaster
Messages: 989
Registered: June 2007

No Cups

Incredible effort from Stu tonight. Managing to save 4 out of every 5 pucks shot on net! Well done.

This is the kind of goaltending that this team needs to get back to the Cup Finals (pffffftt). Pickard should be the starting goalie moving forward immediately, and the management team needs to find a legit starter ASAP. Stu isn't starter material.

This sucks as I really thought Stu had what it takes, but this season has been one hell of an epic meltdown.

[Updated on: Thu, 21 November 2024 21:47]

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Re: Review: Minnesota @ Edmonton (Game #21) [message #839116 is a reply to message #839114 ]	Thu, 21 November 2024 21:55

Mike
Messages: 1397
Registered: August 2005
Location: Moncton, New Brunswick

1 Cup

Is Dustin Schwartz really still with the team?

As I’ve said many times - I don’t know if he is the problem, but the boatloads of goalies who’ve come through here only to flounder under his tutelage tells me he most certainly is not part of the solution.

How has he survived half a dozen head coaches and a few GMs while being responsible for one the worst aggregate decades of goaltending any team has experienced in the history of the game.

We’re not talking an NHL legend here. Not only has this guy never played in the NHL, he’s never even played in the AHL. But somehow he is still around.

Punt him to the curb, and go with Pickard until he falters. Skinner obviously can’t handle the workload of a NHL #1

[Updated on: Thu, 21 November 2024 21:57]

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Re: Review: Minnesota @ Edmonton (Game #21) [message #839117 is a reply to message #839116 ]	Thu, 21 November 2024 21:57

HamBlaster
Messages: 989
Registered: June 2007

No Cups

Maybe he's Katz's illegitimate son? I have no idea.

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Re: Review: Minnesota @ Edmonton (Game #21) [message #839118 is a reply to message #839117 ]	Thu, 21 November 2024 22:29

watchman
Messages: 1422
Registered: October 2019
Location: River City

1 Cup

Rangers up next??? icon_rolleyes

...this time, it's for real (isn't it?).

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Re: Review: Minnesota @ Edmonton (Game #21) [message #839120 is a reply to message #839116 ]	Thu, 21 November 2024 22:35

Kr55
Messages: 10783
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

Mike wrote on Thu, 21 November 2024 21:55

It was entertaining when the fans booed him, I think in the opener? I forget when, but I know the fans got a clear chance to show they had a unified dislike of our goalie coach. That might be the first time in NHL history that a goalie coach has managed to stick around and fail long enough to actually have a huge amount of fans in an arena boo them. The Schwartz is something special for sure.

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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Re: Review: Minnesota @ Edmonton (Game #21) [message #839122 is a reply to message #839116 ]	Fri, 22 November 2024 08:50

inverno76
Messages: 2343
Registered: September 2005
Location: Prince Albert, Saskatchew...

2 Cups

Mike wrote on Thu, 21 November 2024 21:55

I have heard the argument he pre-scouts opposition goalies to find their tendencies for our forwards to take advantage of, and here we are near the bottom of the league in scoring. Done with Schwartz.

Skinner has the body language of a kitten-less Jack Campbell. He's broken. Pickard is our guy until Stu either figures it out, or they make an upgrade in net. Is chasing Gibson at 50% retained and Skinner going the other way a realistic option? Is that even worse than where we are right now?

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Re: Review: Minnesota @ Edmonton (Game #21) [message #839124 is a reply to message #839122 ]	Fri, 22 November 2024 09:35

Adam
Messages: 7178
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

inverno76 wrote on Fri, 22 November 2024 08:50

Mike wrote on Thu, 21 November 2024 21:55

I was advocating for pulling Skinner when it was 1-1 yesterday. At that point, the Oilers had carried the bulk of the play, but three pucks had already hit the back of our net. We got saved to that point by an off-side with nothing to do with the scoring play, and a quick whistle on one they banged in. I don't really believe Skinner ever had that one under control. Then the Boldy goal, which maybe there was a bit of a screen for, but it wasn't exactly a rocket and I thought he should be done right then. I'm not sure why they stuck with him the whole way.

The goals against seemed to rattle the team. We played a pretty strong first really, but the wind came out of their sails.

The problem for the Oilers is that while Skinner hasn't been great this year, Pickard has been the worse netminder. He's a 30+ journeyman who's never carried the mail anywhere so he's not a great second option when you have a hot & cold guy like Skinner as your #1. It seems an area where the Oilers NEED to bolster, although I fear that Skinner's going to have another hot January, the team will feel the problem is solved, and we're going to rinse and repeat here.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

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Re: Review: Minnesota @ Edmonton (Game #21) [message #839119 is a reply to message #839111 ]	Thu, 21 November 2024 22:33

Kr55
Messages: 10783
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

Ah, the great tradition of being pwned by the Wild. Missed it (un)fortunately.

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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Re: Review: Minnesota @ Edmonton (Game #21) [message #839121 is a reply to message #839119 ]	Fri, 22 November 2024 04:47

tardigrade81
Messages: 2266
Registered: November 2022
Location: Regina, Saskatchewan

2 Cups

Start pickard

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Re: Review: Minnesota @ Edmonton (Game #21) [message #839123 is a reply to message #839121 ]	Fri, 22 November 2024 09:11

oiltec
Messages: 99
Registered: December 2022

No Cups

IMO Skinner is not as bad as some people make him out to be however he is not an elite goalie by any means. Pickcard although he may seem a better option at this time is also not the answer. The Oil have neglected this key position for far too long.

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Re: Review: Minnesota @ Edmonton (Game #21) [message #839125 is a reply to message #839123 ]	Fri, 22 November 2024 09:40

inverno76
Messages: 2343
Registered: September 2005
Location: Prince Albert, Saskatchew...

2 Cups

oiltec wrote on Fri, 22 November 2024 09:11

I want to be on your side, but I am curious to hear about what you see as a positive in his game right now?

My untrained, armchair goalie observations are:

1. Too deep in his net.
2. Struggles to track the puck in traffic.
3. Fails to anticipate plays.
4. Lateral movement is below average, and is being exaggerated because of point #3.
5. He has the body language of ex-Oilers Campbell, Koskinen, Dubnyk and Talbot.

I thought he had a chance to be an elite goaltender when he first entered the league when he looked so big in the net, challenged shooters and seemed to track the puck like a hawk. I just do not see it anymore, and even when he is playing well he is just a bit above average. I hate being a Debbie Downer.

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Re: Review: Minnesota @ Edmonton (Game #21) [message #839126 is a reply to message #839111 ]	Fri, 22 November 2024 10:56

Hibernia
Messages: 102
Registered: October 1998
Location: Sin John's

No Cups

The problem isn't Skinner. The problem is the team in front of him.

Just like Ullmark isn't the problem in Ottawa. It's the team in front of him. There's a reason why some goalies look great behind good teams and crappy when they get traded to a bad team.

When you have a team that doesn't give up the puck in the slot, your goalie looks good. When you continually turn the puck over in high-danger scoring areas, your goalie is going to suffer. And right now, there's a bunch of Oilers who have no idea how to handle the puck in their own end. It's brutal. Clean up the back-end and Skinner's good enough but he's not a goalie who will steal you too many games.

What happened to all of my messages? lol (I guess it's been awhile) BlueSky: StefBarnes

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Re: Review: Minnesota @ Edmonton (Game #21) [message #839127 is a reply to message #839126 ]	Fri, 22 November 2024 11:12

Kr55
Messages: 10783
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

Hibernia wrote on Fri, 22 November 2024 10:56

Last night, just from watching highlights, definitely a case of bad coverage being more of a culprit, but no "good" goalie has consistent toilet sav%. Good goalies still manage to have decent sav% on bad teams. Ullmark was one of those guys.

There is a similarity between Ullmark and Skinner. They are goalies that have major confidence issues. Ullmark had good sav% in Buffalo behind a bad team when he got to play loose and like he had nothing to lose. As he moved to a better team, as pressure ramped up he started to crumble. Now he's really crumbling under the weight of a huge contract and expectations. We have loads of proof how about how much Skinner struggles to keep his confidence up. We likely have a very short playoffs last year without Mumford putting all his time into him.

Maybe we can survive still with Skinner, but maybe it gets a little harder every year for some mental health coach to find new buttons to push. Or maybe he finally figures himself out. I hope one day we can get another goalie that is actually elite at self motivation, like Mike Smith was, but he was unfortunately old and on the edge of broken most of his time here.

[Updated on: Fri, 22 November 2024 11:15]

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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Re: Review: Minnesota @ Edmonton (Game #21) [message #839128 is a reply to message #839126 ]	Fri, 22 November 2024 11:52

smyth260
Messages: 1081
Registered: November 2007

1 Cup

Hibernia wrote on Fri, 22 November 2024 09:56

There is a lot of data this year that says the Oilers are actually a top team in the league at limiting high danger chances.

At some point, the Oilers need to expect more than “good enough” from their personnel from goaltenders to goalie coaches to management. Nobody wins a cup from accepting good enough. Skinner has to make a big save once in a while. And management probably should have seen the available backup role as an opportunity to upgrade the position rather than hand it to Pickard.

Clean house or bust

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Re: Review: Minnesota @ Edmonton (Game #21) [message #839129 is a reply to message #839128 ]	Fri, 22 November 2024 14:14

Adam
Messages: 7178
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

smyth260 wrote on Fri, 22 November 2024 11:52

Hibernia wrote on Fri, 22 November 2024 09:56

Yeah - all the advanced stats seem to suggest it IS goaltending. Do we have breakdowns? Yes - but statistically less than our opponents.

If you look at last night's game, Skinner never looked comfortable. He was giving up greasy rebounds (which resulted in a couple of the goals against and also some other dangerous scrambles) and he let in a couple of quite stoppable shots. He really didn't make ANY great saves - which has been a theme this year. We've run in to goalies making several circus stops and then there's Skinner (and Pickard) at the other end of the rink, where every good chance is in the back of the net.

Defence could be better, but I do think we have decided to try the Flyers' model from the 1990s. Have a great team, and constantly see if a mediocre goalie is enough to get by with. It didn't work with the Lindros-era Flyers and it's been an issue for the bulk of the McDavid era here.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

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Re: Review: Minnesota @ Edmonton (Game #21) [message #839130 is a reply to message #839129 ]	Fri, 22 November 2024 14:45

inverno76
Messages: 2343
Registered: September 2005
Location: Prince Albert, Saskatchew...

2 Cups

Adam wrote on Fri, 22 November 2024 14:14

smyth260 wrote on Fri, 22 November 2024 11:52

Hibernia wrote on Fri, 22 November 2024 09:56

He really didn't make ANY great saves

He made one nice save from a good shot from the slot. Cannot remember who took the blast, but Skinner made a glove save from just above his left pad. That being said, it was a good save and one a goalie may let in once out 20 shots, but that is where we are right now and it needs to be better.

The Stuuu chants ring out when we get a marginally better than average save from #74. He needs to be better.

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Re: Review: Minnesota @ Edmonton (Game #21) [message #839131 is a reply to message #839130 ]	Fri, 22 November 2024 16:23

benv
Messages: 604
Registered: May 2006
Location: Edmonton

No Cups

inverno76 wrote on Fri, 22 November 2024 14:45

Sorry, I can't help but put on my math nerd hat here.

If the shot was one that a typical goalie would let in 1 out of 20 times, that implies the shot would have a typical save % of 0.950. League wide save % generally hovers around 0.900 (I believe) so a shot that would generate a 0.950 save% would be a below average shot (goalies would stop it more than a typical shot).

I would think a "good" save would have to be one where the typical save% would be well below 0.900 (probably quite a bit below).

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Re: Review: Minnesota @ Edmonton (Game #21) [message #839132 is a reply to message #839131 ]	Fri, 22 November 2024 16:49

oilfan94
Messages: 410
Registered: June 2006
Location: USA

No Cups

benv wrote on Fri, 22 November 2024 18:23

inverno76 wrote on Fri, 22 November 2024 14:45

This is my favourite post.

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Re: Review: Minnesota @ Edmonton (Game #21) [message #839177 is a reply to message #839131 ]	Mon, 25 November 2024 17:18

Adam
Messages: 7178
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

benv wrote on Fri, 22 November 2024 16:23

inverno76 wrote on Fri, 22 November 2024 14:45

Of course the issue for Skinner is that .900 is so often not there. I'd argue the line should be higher too.

There are currently 18 goalies in the league with more than 8 appearances who have .910 save percentage. If we're looking for a goalie capable of winning the Stanley Cup, I'd argue that top-18 in the position is probably a minimal expectation.

There's 31 goalies with a .901 or better, so maybe that's a reasonable expectation of a starting netminder, but the Oilers shouldn't be satisfied with the bare minimum for a starter given the expectations on this team. Skinner's .882 is way below that (41st in the league with that minimum # of games).

Individual game stats aren't the best to look at individually, since each goal is a huge swing when you only see 20-40 shots in a given night, but looked at in batches it can be pretty telling. Skinner's played in 15 games this year and he's only been over .900 in 7 of them.

Ultimately those are challenging stats if we're to believe he's the guy who can get us a Cup...I mean, he almost single-handedly blew the Vancouver series for us last year, so while he played really well against Dallas, I think if I could upgrade there, I would be doing so in a hurry.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

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Re: Review: Minnesota @ Edmonton (Game #21) [message #839186 is a reply to message #839177 ]	Thu, 28 November 2024 16:42

nullterm
Messages: 1035
Registered: July 2007
Location: Port Moody, BC

1 Cup

Adam wrote on Mon, 25 November 2024 16:18

benv wrote on Fri, 22 November 2024 16:23

inverno76 wrote on Fri, 22 November 2024 14:45

If you are a team with SCF aspirations, you need a top 16 goalie. Skinner's a good guy, but not in that category. Top 32, yeah. But if that's your starter, you're in the bottom half of NHL teams at the most critical position.

I know Campbell was the plan, but whoa boy did that blow up. And the team seems content to sit on Skinner, when they need to make upgrading the position as a whole the priority.

Skinner or Pickard as backup to a top 15... now you're talking.

Illegitimi non carborundum.

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