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Review: Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) [message #838870]	Tue, 12 November 2024 21:30

OilFans
Messages: 1546
Registered: February 2006
Location: Edmonton

1 Cup

4 Final (OT)

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Re: Review: Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) [message #838875 is a reply to message #838870 ]	Tue, 12 November 2024 21:42

tardigrade81
Messages: 2226
Registered: November 2022
Location: Regina, Saskatchewan

2 Cups

Drai is amazing. That is all

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Re: Review: Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) [message #838876 is a reply to message #838870 ]	Tue, 12 November 2024 21:48

Kr55
Messages: 10745
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

Some of our big boys showing some finish tonight. Not good letting in 2 in the 3rd to choke the lead. Sorkin made it closer than it should have been.

McDavid 999 points. Can light the preds up with Drai for the 1000th.

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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Re: Review: Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) [message #838878 is a reply to message #838870 ]	Tue, 12 November 2024 23:12

Skookum Jim
Messages: 4408
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC

4 Cups

Forwards were good.. starting to click.. Leon and McD forces of nature.. impressed with Podkolzin's efforts tonight.. if McLeod had near that tenacity he'd still be here.. defence allowed some dopey goals .. same old.. skinner is not very fast between the pipes.. ripe for wrap-arounds and cross seams..

[Updated on: Tue, 12 November 2024 23:14]

McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!!
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

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Re: Review: Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) [message #838880 is a reply to message #838870 ]	Wed, 13 November 2024 08:16

inverno76
Messages: 2339
Registered: September 2005
Location: Prince Albert, Saskatchew...

2 Cups

The Oil dominated the game, yet somehow Nurse and Skinner made it a nail biter. I try to positive about those two, but dang they make it difficult. I honestly prefer Pickard over Skinner now.

Take the 2 ponts and keep building on it.

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Re: Review: Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) [message #838885 is a reply to message #838880 ]	Wed, 13 November 2024 10:03

Adam
Messages: 7171
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

inverno76 wrote on Wed, 13 November 2024 08:16

First goal against - Ekholm & Bouchard are out, 3-on-2, Isles score on a long shot. Bad goal on Skinner. I don't really think it's easy to blame the D here - Tsplakov made a nice pass, but that shot is from another area code. It's got to be stopped.

Second goal - Emberson & Kulak are out, both a little flat-footed. Forwards a little scrambly in the zone too. This is the one Knoblauch focused on in his interview saying he didn't love that. Not great rebound control from Skinner too.

Third goal - Ek & Bouch back on the ice. Tic-tac-toe passing play, and the team probably could have played it better, but credit to the Isles there. If I was going to blame someone on defence, it's probably Ekholm, who goes down on the ice, rather than engaging his man.

I've noticed Oilers fans doing the Oilers fans thing where they take legit criticism of a defenceman - this time Darnell Nurse - and turn it in to this thing where they grumble whenever he's on the ice, complain about anything bad that happens while he's on, and remember everything as his fault, notice only the mistakes and nothing else, and blame him for everything that befalls the team even when he has a game like last night where he wasn't on for a single goal against.

[Updated on: Wed, 13 November 2024 10:07]

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

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Re: Review: Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) [message #838898 is a reply to message #838885 ]	Wed, 13 November 2024 20:41

inverno76
Messages: 2339
Registered: September 2005
Location: Prince Albert, Saskatchew...

2 Cups

Adam wrote on Wed, 13 November 2024 10:03

inverno76 wrote on Wed, 13 November 2024 08:16

Nurse’s first shift of the game. Horrendous turnover but no goal. Looked lost multiple times.

I’m just tired of wanting him to be better than he is. I could care less about his salary, even though it heavily hampers the Oilers. Can’t begrudge someone for getting paid. Nurse is a problem though. His numbers on the PK are bad. He’s not overly physical. Sure he’s second on the Oil, but Edmonton is missing the toughness he’s capable of bringing.

I just want to see him do one thing well consistently, but it’s such a steep regression we are seeing. I guess we wait and hope for a big deadline deadline deal to either prop him up, or push him down the lineup?

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Re: Review: Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) [message #838899 is a reply to message #838898 ]	Wed, 13 November 2024 21:58

PlusOne
Messages: 1578
Registered: July 2006
Location: Regina, Sask

1 Cup

inverno76 wrote on Wed, 13 November 2024 21:41

Adam wrote on Wed, 13 November 2024 10:03

inverno76 wrote on Wed, 13 November 2024 08:16

I think the difference here is looking at the big picture VS one shift or one big mistake that sticks in your head. The Oilers fanbase seems to dwell on a player and the constant discussion magnifies mistakes. So much so that we can be blind to improvement. I know I have been guilty of this with certain guys in the past. Kris Russell mainly *spits*
My eye test for Nurse's season to this point; I think he has been much better than last year. He seems to be simplifying his game and working better on angles. In the past he tried to reply on athleticism and it was pushing him out of position a lot. This year he still has issues but is trapped in "no mans land" way less often.
I don't spend time on advanced stats sites but I do like when others do the analysis. I saw something on X the other day that he was doing very well in most aspects while still playing high minutes against quality completion.
One stat I wish I could remember exactly was SV% for the Oilers when Nurse is on the ice. Apparently it is the 2nd best among the D-men, behind Stecher, Nurse's most common partner.. I have always like that stat when it comes to looking at a players defensive contributions.

Survivor LX(I) and 67 Champ(i)on

CrusaderPi wrote on Thu, 30 January 2020 12:21

und(i)sputed O.L.F.N Heavybra(i)n Champ(i)on of the Woooooooooooooooooorld. Plus. One.

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Re: Review: Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) [message #838883 is a reply to message #838870 ]	Wed, 13 November 2024 09:39

Adam
Messages: 7171
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

The thing that is really clear this morning is how wrong CrusaderPi was yesterday. This was not, in fact, a boring game.

Clear dominance by the Oilers over most of the game, although again defence and goaltending showing cracks. Sorokin played really well. Skinner...was okay. Good enough.

That OT was fantastic. Loved the shift by Nuge, Hyman and Ekholm to just exhaust the Isles, before swapping out for the top trio to end things.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

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Re: Review: Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) [message #838886 is a reply to message #838883 ]	Wed, 13 November 2024 10:40

oilfan94
Messages: 406
Registered: June 2006
Location: USA

No Cups

Adam wrote on Wed, 13 November 2024 11:39

That one probably one of the most enjoyable OTs I have ever watched. One line wearing them down and then getting the top guys back out was about the most perfect way to play it possible.

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Re: Review: Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) [message #838887 is a reply to message #838883 ]	Wed, 13 November 2024 10:48

CrusaderPi
Messages: 7798
Registered: December 2003
Location: AB Highway 100

6 Cups

Adam wrote on Wed, 13 November 2024 09:39

The end was amazing but the first two periods were kind of snoozy. But sure, I'll accept the big L on this one.

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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Re: Review: Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) [message #838888 is a reply to message #838887 ]	Wed, 13 November 2024 12:24

smyth260
Messages: 1075
Registered: November 2007

1 Cup

Pi has the backing of the captain, as McDavid called it a snoozer in his post game!

Clean house or bust

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Re: Review: Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) [message #838889 is a reply to message #838888 ]	Wed, 13 November 2024 13:40

benv
Messages: 600
Registered: May 2006
Location: Edmonton

No Cups

smyth260 wrote on Wed, 13 November 2024 12:24

Pi has the backing of the captain, as McDavid called it a snoozer in his post game!

Stetcher did too, in his 2nd intermission interview.

I was surprised both times, as I've certainly seen much worse.

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Re: Review: Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) [message #838890 is a reply to message #838889 ]	Wed, 13 November 2024 14:37

Adam
Messages: 7171
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

benv wrote on Wed, 13 November 2024 13:40

smyth260 wrote on Wed, 13 November 2024 12:24

Pi has the backing of the captain, as McDavid called it a snoozer in his post game!

Stetcher did too, in his 2nd intermission interview.

I was surprised both times, as I've certainly seen much worse.

From my seats in the rink last night, I thought it was a pretty good game. Thought we had lots of control and plenty of chances. Some really nice plays that didn't go in, like that little dangle by Perry in the first.

And in the third, I thought there was a chance of McDavid getting all the way to 1000 last night! Place was buzzing every time he was on the ice.

Shout out to the drunk fellow behind us who's voice was already shredding from his repeated "LET'S GO OILERS" chants. No way that dude has any voice left today but he put in a big shift and entertained the bulk of the section!

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

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Re: Review: Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) [message #838891 is a reply to message #838890 ]	Wed, 13 November 2024 15:16

benv
Messages: 600
Registered: May 2006
Location: Edmonton

No Cups

Adam wrote on Wed, 13 November 2024 14:37

benv wrote on Wed, 13 November 2024 13:40

smyth260 wrote on Wed, 13 November 2024 12:24

Pi has the backing of the captain, as McDavid called it a snoozer in his post game!

Stetcher did too, in his 2nd intermission interview.

I was surprised both times, as I've certainly seen much worse.

McDavid and Stetcher should be forced to watch a 2003 Minnesota Wild vs New Jersey Devils game to teach them what "snoozer" really means.

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Re: Review: Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) [message #838892 is a reply to message #838870 ]	Wed, 13 November 2024 16:17

smyth260
Messages: 1075
Registered: November 2007

1 Cup

Travis Yost posted a figure today.

Our PK is 1st in expected goals against, but last in actual goals against. Can’t beat that spread!

Clean house or bust

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Re: Review: Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) [message #838893 is a reply to message #838892 ]	Wed, 13 November 2024 16:24

benv
Messages: 600
Registered: May 2006
Location: Edmonton

No Cups

smyth260 wrote on Wed, 13 November 2024 16:17

Travis Yost posted a figure today.

Our PK is 1st in expected goals against, but last in actual goals against. Can’t beat that spread!

I assume expected goals are computed on scoring chances alone (ignoring quality of goaltending?).

Does this mean our bad penalty kill is all on goaltending? I thinkgoaltending has been a factor, but from my eye test, I think the Oilers have been sloppy on the PK as well.

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Re: Review: Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) [message #838894 is a reply to message #838893 ]	Wed, 13 November 2024 17:01

Kr55
Messages: 10745
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

benv wrote on Wed, 13 November 2024 16:24

smyth260 wrote on Wed, 13 November 2024 16:17

Travis Yost posted a figure today.

Our PK is 1st in expected goals against, but last in actual goals against. Can’t beat that spread!

I'm not sure if any models is ordinary folks have access to can tell the different between a 1-timer off to the side of the net that comes after a cross crease pass that we allow to go right though us, and a shot from the side of the net from the same place. Obviously one of these has a far better chance to go in.

Over time though, your excepted GA/60 and actual GA/60 should start to converge a little if you are getting league average goaltending.

Right now PK xGA/60 is 5.49. Next closest team is LA with 5.61. Worst team is Anaheim with 11.31

PK GA/60 is 15.41. next closest team is 14.66, the Islanders with xGA/60 7.35. Best is Philly with 3.23 and xGA/60 8.39.

So, some other teams have a spread. Lots of Oilers fans praising Sorkin, but the Islanders have a 7 GA/60 difference in real vs expected, vs our 10. Sorkin's PK results are a bit better than Skinner.

Pickard has been worse than Skinner in terms of GA/60. He has 7 GA in 16:55 PK time. Skinner has 9 against in 45:22.

Bad luck, bad PKing, bad goaltending. I think we are getting the triple whammy. But maybe can say the actual PKing is 3rd place on what's killing us.

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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Re: Review: Islanders @ Edmonton (Game #16) [message #838900 is a reply to message #838894 ]	Wed, 13 November 2024 22:23

Kr55
Messages: 10745
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

Kr55 wrote on Wed, 13 November 2024 17:01

benv wrote on Wed, 13 November 2024 16:24

smyth260 wrote on Wed, 13 November 2024 16:17

Travis Yost posted a figure today.

Our PK is 1st in expected goals against, but last in actual goals against. Can’t beat that spread!

I'm gonna disagree with myself here actually lol.

I'd actually lean to the system being an issue more than goalie if the goalie's sav% is vastly different on the PK than even strength. That is the case for a guy like Sorkin, and Pickard. Skinner as well, but Skinner is below average even strength too, but not nearly out of line as he is with his PK stats.

I can't find any comments anywhere using stats like sportlogIQ or something that accounts for puck movement/goalie movement required before shots. I personally think the data is likely hiding the amount of open net we allow teams to shoot at with poor defending. Although our goalies are not exactly the quickest movers, so they play a role in those chances being even more golden.

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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