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Oilers & Drafting Goalies [message #833813]	Mon, 13 May 2024 16:02

Adam
Messages: 7177
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

Here is who the Oilers have picked for goaltenders, sorted in to GM Eras.

Holland Era
2023 - Nathaniel Day - 6th rd - starter in OHL this year with sub .900 sv%
2022 - Samuel Jonsson - 5th rd - barely played in Sweden this year (3 gp)
2021 - none - team traded down rather than picking Jesper Wallstedt who was top-ranked goalie but 2nd picked (after Oil King Sebastian Cossa). It could be that the Oilers preferred Cossa and once he went, decided they were done with goalies.
2020 - none
2019 - Ilya Konovalov - 3rd rd - came to North America, played 17 games, and then team terminated his contract and let him return to Russia where he's continued to post good numbers

Chiarelli Era
2018 - Olivier Rodrigue - 2nd rd - last player in the 2nd rd, and only 2nd goalie picked that year. Good AHL numbers so far, although scouting reports talk about his size being only 6'1, so a small goalie in this age.
2017 - Stuart Skinner - 3rd rd - well, you know where he's at.
2016 - Dylan Wells - 5th rd - played one game due to injury at the NHL level.
2015 - Miroslav Svoboda - 7th rd - played one season in ECHL only

MacTavish Era
2014 - Zach Nagelvoort - 4th rd
2014 - Keven Bouchard - 7th rd
2013 - none

Tambellini Era
2012 - none
2011 - Samu Perhonen - 3rd rd - played 8 games in the USHL in Draft +3 season. Only games in North America.
2011 - Frans Tuohimaa - 7th rd - played 4 AHL games, 33 ECHL games for the team.
2010 - Tyler Bunz - 5th rd - one NHL game.
2009 - Olivier Roy - 5th rd - several years in the system, no games in the NHL.
2008 - none

The team has pretty much stuck to a philosophy of spending about one pick a year on a goalie. Interestingly, in the Chiarelli era, it seemed to move up - and our current goalie and best prospect both come from that era. Under Holland, we have picked less goalies than in any other era - despite also never having a very good goalie or even a reliable but unremarkable tandem.

Konovalov is likely the best that Holland picked, and the highest picked too - but something weird happened there. The Wallstedt pick looks like the biggest miss, and his handling by the Wild (despite the fact they have some good goalies ahead of him) really stands out next to how the Oilers have developed their netminders. He's three years younger than Rodrigue and has about the same number of AHL starts with similar numbers. He has 3 more NHL games on his resume too.

The Oilers have continually picked up career backups and played them as the starter more years than not in the minors with only Stuart Skinner ever really getting the full push as the AHL starter at a relatively early age. He had one year as the starter in the ECHL and then was immediately the first choice goalie in the AHL after that. It is probably somewhat telling of the Oilers level of belief in Rodrigue that he A) hasn't ever got that push and B) hasn't been called up to even hang with the black aces this season - it's been a long, long time since he was drafted so time is ticking on him.

I suspect that Holland has believed that he can get a Chris Osgood, who can just be good enough while unremarkable and that that'll save him cap room for other positions, but man...I wish we'd at least tried for a back-up plan other than hoping one of our longshots comes through.

Given our current scenario, it's just glaring that we went all in on Campbell/Skinner the last couple years after years of being all-in on Smith/Koskinen with no real effort to build for the future other than the time spent on Skinner.

[Updated on: Mon, 13 May 2024 16:06]

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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Re: Oilers & Drafting Goalies [message #833815 is a reply to message #833813 ]	Mon, 13 May 2024 17:09

Oscargasm
Messages: 5911
Registered: May 2009
Location: YEG

5 Cups

Organizational failure when Jesper Wallstedt fell to them and they decided to trade that pick for Xavier Bourgault, who will never be an NHL regular.

Yes. I said it. XB will never be a regular NHLer. To me, that move was worse than the Griffin trade, the Eberle tree, the Lucic signing. Just. Horrid.

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Re: Oilers & Drafting Goalies [message #833816 is a reply to message #833815 ]	Mon, 13 May 2024 17:22

Adam
Messages: 7177
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

Oscargasm wrote on Mon, 13 May 2024 17:09

FWIW, I think Bourgault will be an NHLer - although how far up the depth chart is a question mark. Given where he was drafted, a successful pick is probably anyone that ends up a third liner or higher. But given the organizational weakness at goalie, it's interesting that the Oilers didn't make that pick. Holland hasn't done that well historically at drafting goalies. His only wins in all those years GMing are Peter Mrazek (5th round 2010) and Jimmy Howard (2nd round 2003). He spent one first rounder on a goalie - Tom McCollum in 2008 who got all of 3 NHL games.

He probably is one of those who believe the idea that goalies are complete voodoo and you're just as likely to get a franchise guy in the 7th round to the first. That of course ignores that certain teams seem just super lucky again and again and again though... I don't believe that's true. I think that teams that develop goalies spend more time on scouting them before they pick them, and then on developing the ones they have in the system, whereas the ones who don't develop goalies just throw them somewhere in the system and wait to see who overcomes that.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

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Re: Oilers & Drafting Goalies [message #833817 is a reply to message #833815 ]	Mon, 13 May 2024 17:25

Kr55
Messages: 10779
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

Oscargasm wrote on Mon, 13 May 2024 17:09

We doubled up on failure that draft. Coffey was hounding the org to pick Johnston who he mentored from a young age, Staios was pushing for Wyatt Johnston too. Wright decided that his genius was too great and took Bourgault.

$25M for a GM whose entire claim to fame was amazing drafting/developing and patiently waiting for picks to emerge as stars (achieving over ripened status). I don't think Holland will have drafted a single top end player for us in his 5 years.

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

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Re: Oilers & Drafting Goalies [message #833821 is a reply to message #833817 ]	Mon, 13 May 2024 17:39

Adam
Messages: 7177
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

Kr55 wrote on Mon, 13 May 2024 17:25

Oscargasm wrote on Mon, 13 May 2024 17:09

The legend that he created around that is bonkers too. The one thing that they did well is have more and better European scouts than other teams (especially in Sweden), but even there, the guys they did best on in the Holland era - Datsyuk & Zetterberg - weren't guys that the team was believing would be stars.

The other late picks like Lidstrom & Fedorov were there before Holland ran the show. There's a few other decent ones but not more than any other team.

He was handed the keys to a defending Stanley Cup Champion with a great lineup and got the next year's win too. Then they won the early 2000s Cup by outpaying everyone else and basically icing an All-Star team. He peaks in the 2007-09 era with Lidstrom, Zetterberg and Datsyuk all playing extremely well. but in the next several years, he did nothing as the team declined. He didn't make good trades, he struggled to manage the cap and he didn't draft particularly well. And we've just seen more of that since he got here. I still wonder what if the Oilers just followed through with their hiring/interview process after they fired Chiarelli where we are now. What would a Bill Zito have been able to do with this team?

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

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Re: Oilers & Drafting Goalies [message #833826 is a reply to message #833817 ]	Mon, 13 May 2024 18:27

Skookum Jim
Messages: 4421
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC

4 Cups

Kr55 wrote on Mon, 13 May 2024 16:25

Oscargasm wrote on Mon, 13 May 2024 17:09

Yeah, if what is rumoured is true (Coffee/Staios inside OHL info, pushing for WJ) that was a big fkup by Wright (probably why he got the punt).. The Q is usually an enigma.. guys can light it up there (which XB did that year.. all the way to the Memorial Cup) .. and be either NHL regulars.. or totally bomb out.. IMHO OHL is usually the safer league to judge junior age performance by..

Also the points alone should have swayed their minds..

Bourgault last season in Q
2021-22 Shawinigan Cataractes QMJHL 43 36 39 75

Johnston
2021-22 Windsor Spitfires OHL 68 46 78 124

WJ had higher PPG in a more competitive league.

Plus.. Johnston is listed a 6-2 185 lbs.. XB 6-0 (I doubt it) and 175l bs.

I agree.. forget Wallstedt.. Johnston was the huge FKUP!

That being said.. spending a 1st on a goalie is rare for most teams.. high risk.. not a sure thing even for the highest rated..

eg. Sebastian Cossa (15th overall)

Last two years in AHL he's rockin' 0.913 and 0.913

.. and for comparison Rodrigue (2nd round, #62) is 0.913 and 0.916 last two years

Wallstedt? He's 0.908 and 0.910

They are all seem to be doing similar ..

IMHO Goalies are voodoo in general.. especially draft wise..

What the Oilers did with getting NCAA guys like Fanti, and CIU Connor Ungar are smart moves.. need to get the guys that develop later.. which goalies tend to do.. for free.. wouldn't be a bad idea getting some Latvian, European goalie scouts on the payroll!

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P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

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Re: Oilers & Drafting Goalies [message #833842 is a reply to message #833826 ]	Mon, 13 May 2024 22:45

Adam
Messages: 7177
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

Skookum Jim wrote on Mon, 13 May 2024 18:27

Kr55 wrote on Mon, 13 May 2024 16:25

Oscargasm wrote on Mon, 13 May 2024 17:09

Couple of things:

- Rodrigue has similar numbers but he's three years older. He hasn't got the same opportunities as the other guys, and so he's tracking behind. Skinner got a push that was similar to Cossa and Wallstedt and he was around .890 in the same time frame. Both of those guys are tracking pretty well as pros.

- Fanti is again three years older than those two, and he had a decent season in the ECHL this year. If the Oilers wanted to push a goalie they need to have him and Rodrigue in the AHL next year competing for the top job and avoid the easy safety net of the career back-up there - not to mention jettison Jack Campbell so he isn't blocking the path for them.

- Ungram is early days in the organization, but again he's 22 - older than either Wallstedt and Cossa and hasn't played a pro game at any level yet.

- There are no picks that are completely safe in the draft, but if you look at the list of star goalies drafted in the first round, it's pretty deep. Brodeur, Fuhr, Luongo, Barrasso, Price are some of the standouts historically and in the league right now you have Hellebuyck, Vasilevski, Fleury, Oetingger to name a few. Of the 68 goalies picked in the first round all-time, 37 of them have played over 100 games. The Oilers have twice picked a goalie in the first round - Fuhr & Dubnyk, both of whom were pretty good picks.

- picking guys late and hoping for the best doesn't tend to work well, especially in a sink-or-swim organization like the Oilers run where we don't spend a lot of time working with and developing prospects who weren't first round picks.

The Oilers don't tend to even use 2nd round picks on goalies often. Rodrigue is pretty unique there. The only other this century was Jeff Deslauriers. In the Sather era, we picked Daryl Reaugh (1984), Andrew Verner (1991) & Patrick Dovigi (1997) - obviously all not amazing. Compare that to the 9th round that hasn't existed in years, where we have nine times selected goalies, and for all that work got two games out of Mike Greenlay.

I don't disagree that there are other ways of getting players other than the draft, but the Oilers have struggled at turning up bonafide netminders in any way for a long, long time, so maybe wouldn't have been a bad idea to take a bit of a risk on a highly rated kid somewhere along the way.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

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Re: Oilers & Drafting Goalies [message #833858 is a reply to message #833826 ]	Tue, 14 May 2024 10:10

benv
Messages: 604
Registered: May 2006
Location: Edmonton

No Cups

Skookum Jim wrote on Mon, 13 May 2024 18:27

Also the points alone should have swayed their minds..

Bourgault last season in Q
2021-22 Shawinigan Cataractes QMJHL 43 36 39 75

Johnston
2021-22 Windsor Spitfires OHL 68 46 78 124

So we're now faulting Oilers' management for not being able to see the future? The 21-22 season had not happened at the time the players were drafted. Here's what they did know:

2020-21:
Bourgault: 29 20 20 40
Johnston: Did not play

Hard to fault the pick based on that.

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Re: Oilers & Drafting Goalies [message #833860 is a reply to message #833858 ]	Tue, 14 May 2024 10:35

Kr55
Messages: 10779
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

benv wrote on Tue, 14 May 2024 10:10

Skookum Jim wrote on Mon, 13 May 2024 18:27

Also the points alone should have swayed their minds..

Bourgault last season in Q
2021-22 Shawinigan Cataractes QMJHL 43 36 39 75

Johnston
2021-22 Windsor Spitfires OHL 68 46 78 124

Still burns a bit that we faded maybe the only good advice an ex-Oiler provided the org in a decade and a half. We had Coffey giving the best inside info any org would have on the kid.

I guess it would have broke our streak of letting ex Oilers tank the org though. Sometimes consistency is important.

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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Re: Oilers & Drafting Goalies [message #834909 is a reply to message #833813 ]	Fri, 24 May 2024 21:28

Kr55
Messages: 10779
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

https://www.nhl.com/news/how-dallas-stars-got-wyatt-johnston -in-2021-nhl-draft

Little story on Johnston being scouted by Dallas and how Paul Coffey was called to get more info on him. Saw stories that Paul Coffey also gave this info to the Oilers and tried all he could to push us to draft Johnston with buyin from Staios too.

Wright was just too big brained to give in, but this probably all built the case for him to be launched into the sun earlier this season. Probably also gave a nice boost to Coffey's credibility in the org last summer after Wyatt's rookie season.

[Updated on: Fri, 24 May 2024 21:52]

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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