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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829311 is a reply to message #829307 ]	Wed, 31 January 2024 10:55

RDOilerfan
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Dragon_Matt wrote on Wed, 31 January 2024 10:05

I believe (about 85% sure) whoever the player plays for on July 1 is responsible for the cost of the performance bonus. Trading Brown would absolutely be a win for us.

Also, public praise is something we've sorely lacked for a lot of years. The oilers were more interested in finding scapegoats. Public praise doesn't just make the player feel more valuable, it gets their name mentioned. lets hype brown and his defensive acumen as much as we can. Let's talk about him to every 'other' team's reporter we can and get them talking about him for us.

If you are correct and the Oilers wouldn't be on the hook for the bonus if he was traded, then I would look at a trade.

That being said, and I am not saying you aren't right because I don't know the answer for myself, but it seems odd they would allow that because if that is the case, a team could trade Brown's rights in June to team like Arizona who needs money just to get to the floor. If you look at Capfriendly, they have Vorachek, Weber and Little all on just IR, 3 guys who are never playing again. They count for 21.398 mill on their cap and they are still near the bottom of the league in cap spending. Weber will still be there but Little and Vorachek's deals are done. That's 13.5 mill they have to replace.

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829312 is a reply to message #829307 ]	Wed, 31 January 2024 12:12

Kr55
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Dragon_Matt wrote on Wed, 31 January 2024 10:05

I believe (about 85% sure) whoever the player plays for on July 1 is responsible for the cost of the performance bonus. Trading Brown would absolutely be a win for us.

Also, public praise is something we've sorely lacked for a lot of years. The oilers were more interested in finding scapegoats. Public praise doesn't just make the player feel more valuable, it gets their name mentioned. lets hype brown and his defensive acumen as much as we can. Let's talk about him to every 'other' team's reporter we can and get them talking about him for us.

There were past examples of this, and, unfortunately, the team the player is on when the bonus target is hit, is the one gets the bonus on their books. That 3.225M bonus is ours no matter what we do now.

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829313 is a reply to message #829312 ]	Wed, 31 January 2024 12:24

RDOilerfan
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Kr55 wrote on Wed, 31 January 2024 12:12

Dragon_Matt wrote on Wed, 31 January 2024 10:05

I believe (about 85% sure) whoever the player plays for on July 1 is responsible for the cost of the performance bonus. Trading Brown would absolutely be a win for us.

Also, public praise is something we've sorely lacked for a lot of years. The oilers were more interested in finding scapegoats. Public praise doesn't just make the player feel more valuable, it gets their name mentioned. lets hype brown and his defensive acumen as much as we can. Let's talk about him to every 'other' team's reporter we can and get them talking about him for us.

There were past examples of this, and, unfortunately, the team the player is on when the bonus target is hit, is the one gets the bonus on their books. That 3.225M bonus is ours no matter what we do now.

That is what I thought because if you were allowed to trade bonuses, that seems like cap circumvention to me.

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829358 is a reply to message #829307 ]	Fri, 02 February 2024 09:57

Adam
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Dragon_Matt wrote on Wed, 31 January 2024 10:05

I believe (about 85% sure) whoever the player plays for on July 1 is responsible for the cost of the performance bonus. Trading Brown would absolutely be a win for us.

Also, public praise is something we've sorely lacked for a lot of years. The oilers were more interested in finding scapegoats. Public praise doesn't just make the player feel more valuable, it gets their name mentioned. lets hype brown and his defensive acumen as much as we can. Let's talk about him to every 'other' team's reporter we can and get them talking about him for us.

The reason that July 1st matters for bonuses, is that many signing bonuses are paid that day. So if someone gets $1MM salary and $13MM in bonus like I believe Weber had that one year, then if you have him on July 1, you get to pay that monster bonus.

Brown's bonuses were performance-based though, not simply signing bonus. It was due when he played his 10th game and became fully the Oilers problem at that point.

In a way, it was a form of cap circumvention already - the Oilers wanted to sign him with little impact to this year's cap so he actually counts cheaply against the 2023-24 cap. The downside is that we gave up a big chunk of next year's cap for him when he won't even play here. And now a little more yet on Corey Perry.

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829309 is a reply to message #829304 ]	Wed, 31 January 2024 10:31

RDOilerfan
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inverno76 wrote on Wed, 31 January 2024 09:47

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 31 January 2024 08:28

Adam wrote on Tue, 30 January 2024 15:14

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 30 January 2024 08:36

Adam wrote on Mon, 29 January 2024 18:20

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 29 January 2024 17:03

Kr55 wrote on Mon, 29 January 2024 16:50

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 29 January 2024 16:29

I supposed anything is possible. I don't actually think this is a serious conversation so I will leave it at that.

For the record, I don't want Nurse taking more chances. I think he is way better when he plays a more simplified game like he is doing now vs the all over the ice he played up until this year.

Would have been a move for last summer or early this season. Lots of DeMelo talk was everywhere because everyone knows the Jet's have a hard time with UFA's. Of course we were busy with far more important things last summer, like attracting orange beards.

For sure harder now. Maybe if the Jets hit a bad run and start thinking about next year. Sounds like teams are still scouting Dillon and DeMelo, again, because it's the Jet's and these guys are pending UFA's :) Not much talk going around with media stories.

Just hope Jackson/Holland are looking. We have a smart analytics guy in the org now. There is no way that there hasn't been some talk about Ceci being a bit of a drag on the group and on Nurse. Fingers crossed the org is exporing options.

Unless the Jets seriously hit the skids, I don't see them getting rid of 2 of their top 4 guys just because they are UFA's. The have Hellebuyck playing vezina caliber goaltending. They are near the tops in the West and the league and have been for most of the year. Maybe you are right and they have 2% chance at the cup but I guarantee no one in the Jets organization believes that given where they are at and how they are playing.

You keep the team together, take your shot, then worry about UFA's in the offseason. I get the narrative in this site is all GM's are idiots and fans are smart but I just don't see any GM of a first place team gutting his teams top 4 becuase he's worried about them being UFA's.

The Jets would hardly be the first team to make a trade of a guy at the deadline because they're concerned about next year as well as this year. If they're dealing DeMelo, then they'll want to make sure they get someone back who makes that deal less of a drop-off. If they believe in Ceci (which if they have good analytics, they probably shouldn't), then it could make sense for them. They get someone under team control in case Elias Salomonsson isn't ready to make the jump from the SEL to the bigs next year. And probably get some additional piece from the Oilers as well - an extra 2nd or 3rd round pick and suddenly your middling middle pairing defenceman isn't as untouchable as you once thought he was.

For a good GM, a middle pairing defenceman isn't the hardest upgrade in the world to make. There's probably 8-10 defencemen in the league who would fit the bill without costing an arm and a leg.

And you can target several of them at once - you're not just calling Winnipeg and hoping that you can somehow make a Ceci/DeMelo trade work.

I completely understand asset management. However, how many teams in first place and near the top of the league start shipping out UFA's, guys who are a big time part of their success mid season? It rarely happens. Not unless they are upgrading that position.

A Ceci for DeMelo trade I don't see as an upgrade for the Jets, I see it as a lateral move. Yes you get a guy who is signed for 1 more year but there is no way the players are thinking about next season. They are in the here and now and in the here and now they are near the top of their division and in the league and trading out a key guy would not go over well. It's not happening and that doesn't mean the GM is an idiot.

If you truly believe worry about assets is WAY more important than winning, then should the Oilers not be trading their UFA's as well? They have some guys who are upcoming UFA's who are playing extremely well and are key guys to their success.

Brown and Janmark. They don't make a lot, both UFA's. They are 2 guys who the coach BY NAME has singled out as being key reasons their PK has been near the best in the NHL. That PK is helping them win games. So they should be traded according to your logic right? Who cares about the PK, get assets for them, fingers cross your PK keeps going after trading away who your coach counts on the most and thinks is his best forward pairing.

Yes - I would trade Brown or Janmark for cheaper equivalents. Especially if I gained something else in that trade. Both are the absolute furthest thing from untouchables to me. Replaceable bit parts.

Brown makes 775 which is league min. You can't get cheaper.
Janmark makes 1 mill. 225 above league min. So you will struggle to find a guy cheaper who does as well on the PK and defensively.

I am very glad you don't coach or manage the team becasue your suggestion to dump 2 useful players in their roles, who are making league min or barely above it flat out stupid. All you are getting for those 2 is lower end picks and it's very likely anyone you put in their place won't do their jobs anywhere near as well.

On top of that, team defense is what has been sorely lacking from this team for YEARS. They didn't lose to Vegas last year because they couldn't score, they lost because their team defense sucked. In key times they couldn't kill a penalty or keep a puck out of their net. In the games they lost, they gave up 6, 5, 4, 5 goals. You aren't winning in the playoffs giving up that many goals. It's a fact. Good team defense and a great PK is what is winning them games and is the reason they might break the all time wins in a row record. Those 2 aren't scoring goals but they are a big part of the teams defense and especially the PK. The coach singles them out by name as being critical factors to the teams success. Yes you'd like guys on your 4th line to chip in the odd goal every so often but what is most critical is that line doesn't get scored on. They don't get scored on, that line doesn't get dominated and they create chances. I heard the number last week on a boradcast and I can't remember what it is but Janmark hasn't been scored on when he's on the ice in some ridiculous amount of games.

You don't trade useable players who in a defined role do extremely well, when they are making league min to get some crappy asset and probably replace them both with a worse player. That's what dumb GM's do.

I am completely confident that Janmark will be moved at the deadline along with another asset to upgrade the team's depth. Seravalli hinted that bonuses can be traded too, but I never followed up on where he got this nugget of info and I cannot validate his claim. If moving Brown can happen then he has got to go.

Janmark and Connor Brown are not elite PK'ers, or at least no better than many other forwards in the NHL. They are smart, can process the game at a high level, work hard and have accepted their roles as offensive black holes. Almost every top end PK guy is a very hard working and coachable. That can be re-produced. I give credit to the system and team buy-in over individuals. As for the coaches singling out the two? That is great leadership and public praise reinforces good behaviour. I hope all of the players hear an emphasis on what they are doing correctly and how it impacts the team in a positive manner.

I am okay with keeping Janmark even if he's worse offensively than Brown, but if one or both move I know we will survive. Brown and that cap bonus needs to go.

Maybe some of you guys don't value what the coach says but I do. I'm not on the bench, I am not in the room, I don't coach professional hockey. I don't have my team on a 16 game winning streak after going on an 8 game winning streak. I don't have my team playing top 3 defense in the league nor do I have them being one of the best PK's in the league for the last 2 months. When the coach singles out guys by name and says they have been keys to their success, I personally think that says a lot. He counts on them for certain roles and it's working. I think it's very important to fill a team with guys who the coach knows what he gets, can count on and he trusts. I think that's how you win a lot of games.

Now, I don't pretend to know the CBA back to front. I was under the impression that once the bonus was achieved for Brown, the Oilers are on the hook for it regardless if he ended up with the Oilers at the end of the year or not. To me, how they signed Brown, deferring his money is a bit of a loop hole in the CBA that lets teams circumvent the cap a little. So if you are allowed try the guy out, then if it doesn't work you just ship him out and you aren't on the hook for his bonus, it doesn't seem like that would be allowed. But I could totally be wrong on that. So for Brown, I still think he brings some value to the team, I think he will score down the stretch and in the playoffs but it doesn't look like he will be close to 4 mill of value. So in his case, if you can trade that bonus and someone will take it, them you probably need to look at it.

In Janmarks case. The core seems to like the guy. The big boys compliment him when he plays up. Supposedly the big boys asked him to come back and even take on for the team salary wise. I guess if he's part of a deal to make the money work to bring a legit upgrade at another position, you do it. But I don't think trading Janmark for a similar guy to save 100K is worth it. I am BIG on continuity and not breaking up something that is working really well unless you have too. If you can get a right shot, PK playing, decent sized, decent skating 4th line center and it costs Janmark, that's an upgrade to me. Sign me up. But to swap out 4th line winger Janmark for 4th line winger X who are the same players, just player X makes a tiny bit less isn't worth it to me. Janmark in his role fits with the team, gets along with the guys and does his role well. Slightly cheaper player X might not do the particular role as well or get along with the team as well. Not worth the risk to me, has to be a clear upgrade.

This is not meant as a shot to anyone but I don't think some of you take the whole "team" aspect as being as important as I do. I think some fans feel players are just robots who you can swap in and out and just carry on. In my opinion, you of course need good players but you also need players who get along for the most part and who work well together and know their roles. So maybe player X on paper is slightly better but he might not gel with the team as well or be willing to do the role the team needs him to do as well as another guy. This Oilers team for the first time in a long time looks like a very cohesive unit, everyone knows their roles, everyone is doing their part, everyone is buying in. So I am pretty hesitant to mess with that unless you are bring in clear upgrades on guys.

[Updated on: Wed, 31 January 2024 10:35]

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829269 is a reply to message #829262 ]	Mon, 29 January 2024 13:29

Adam
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Kr55 wrote on Mon, 29 January 2024 11:18

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 29 January 2024 10:48

Dragon_Matt wrote on Mon, 29 January 2024 10:13

I think RDOF was looking for a suggestion on who would be a suitable replacement at a cap hit we can take (assuming Kenny forgets to ask for retained salary again)

10000000%

I am all for upgrading but who's the guy, what's it going to cost you and can you fit in the money. Like I said, I have looked at other teams on Capfriendly lots, I can't find a guy who makes Ceci money or less who's legit better. I'm not looking for a young guy who's barely played but on paper in his limited games and minutes might be better based on "the numbers". The Oilers are a cup team, I'm not dumping Ceci to turning my fortunes on a hunch then if he falters in the playoffs, you are screwed. So the guys that are legit better, assuming they are even available, they all cost way more. So how are they fitting them in, even if they retain and then what is the cost to get him because to get a quality player, it generally costs a team a decent amount, then when you tack on retaining, the costs goes up and up.

Even as an example, the Oilers traded Ceci to the Flames for Tanev. Tanev is a UFA so they will need a right shot replacement. Ceci has proven he can do the job to a somewhat decent level and based on who they have, Ceci probably wouldn't be on their top pairing which is good. He has another year on his deal for a reasonable price. But they would still need the Flames to retain to make the money work if they want to have any money left to add in some depth pieces. So they will need to add in more than just Ceci to make that trade.

Kinda the same comment all the time though no? Yeah, Holland absolutely sucks at cap management and he's constantly handcuffing himself. That's not an excuse to not improve the team though.

There are absolutely defensive D better than Ceci out there. Dozens across many teams. A properly managed team would figure out a way to make that improvement to this lineup. A properly managed team would know Ceci is not the best fit on Nurse's right side to stand up to the best of the best in the playoffs. A properly managed team would figure out a way to improve such an important position and weakness that absolutely killed us last playoffs.

So, get it done Holland, or we will all likely see the consequences come playoff time, and we will know you screwed up, again.

Also, I would hope that someone getting paid $5MM per year, plus with a team of analysts available to him would be doing more than just going to Capfriendly and sorting UFA contracts - Defenceman - Right Shot....

At some point the Oilers need some level of creativity from their management to find solutions that aren't completely obvious.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829287 is a reply to message #829269 ]	Tue, 30 January 2024 10:33

Dragon_Matt
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Holland doesn't know about Capfriendly.

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829288 is a reply to message #829287 ]	Tue, 30 January 2024 10:39

CrusaderPi
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Dragon_Matt wrote on Tue, 30 January 2024 10:33

Holland doesn't know about Capfriendly.

Professional scouting fuctions performed by dailyfaceoff.

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829257 is a reply to message #829254 ]	Mon, 29 January 2024 10:33

RDOilerfan
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Adam wrote on Mon, 29 January 2024 09:28

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 29 January 2024 08:48

I don't see me defending Ceci in a way that says I love the guy and are against upgrading him. That couldn't be farther from the truth. If there is a legit upgrade in all aspects, who isn't undersized, that won't cost you all your assets to bring in, that doesn't cost more cap wise than what Ceci makes and is a seamless fit for Nurse and the Oilers, sign me up. I would bring that guy all day, every day. I just have no clue who that guy is as I don't think he exists.

For the Oilers, I think they need guys on value deals. I feel like Ceci is a value deal and I say that not because I think he's an unreal player. For the Oilers, he plays a lot of minutes with Nurse against most teams best and while not elite, he does it decent. Not amazing but he's not overwhelmed. When Nurse and Ceci are on the ice, generally they do just fine. So in my opinion, just to replace Ceci with the same dman to play the exact same role, I don't think you can get that guy for 3.25 mill.

I place a lot of value on Nurse being comfortable playing with him and that pairing generally getting decent results. Like I said before, their defensive numbers have been outstanding with him playing a lot. I won't dispute he makes the odd mistake and maybe his advanced numbers are lower compared to others. But regardless, Nurse is comfortable playing with him. When they are on the ice, way, way, way, more good happens than bad. So I value continuity between pairs, especially big minute pairs and I don't want them screwing up whatever defensive mojo the whole team has going which Ceci has played a part in. So if they upgrade Ceci, they would be breaking up a successful pair so the guy they bring in better be a perfect fit. He has to be better as a player, he better be a guy the team likes because they like Ceci as a guy a lot. He better gel and compliment with Nurse like Ceci does. So it would be a big risk.

The biggest thing is the acquisition cost. Top 4, right shot dmen are generally harder to find. Lots of teams are generally always looked for top 4 dmen, even more so right shots. Then you look at who badly needs dmen WAY more than the Oilers. THE LEAFS. They are in a wild card spot which is lower than I am sure their organization and fan base expected. I think they will probably make the playoffs but they are in danger of missing. Their defense is BAD. They could probably use at least 2 dmen. Brand new GM, can you imagine the outcry of the fans if they miss? So I am sure he is big time under the gun. So I have to think out of desperation, the Leafs are going to jack up the price for top 4 dmen, especially right shots. Like I said in my previous post, I think Tanev would be a marginal upgrade for the Oilers but he would be a massive upgrade compared to some on the Leafs. So what are the Leafs, the team in the most pressure packed market in the NHL, willing to pay for say Tanev? That is what scares me and I don't think it would be worth because it would probable mean they would have to exhaust all their assets to get him especially since the GM of the provincial rivals will want to get a haul from the Oilers to soften the blow to his fans that he just helped make the hated Oilers better.

You don't think the guy out there exists who could provide an upgrade for Cody Ceci? And that Cody Ceci is a value deal at $3.25MM? Well, agree to disagree then!

Ceci isn't a great passer, doesn't have a great shot, doesn't hit that much. He's just one of those guys that's there and you hope you don't notice him. I realize, a lot of Oilers fans love the archetype of a non-offensive defenceman who barely ever gets any points and who seems semi-rugged in their style of play, but I don't think he's offering a lot, and $3.25MM is a ton to pay for that guy.

As for what it takes to get a RH d-man, it could be a defensive defenceman in the Nick Schultz mode (Cody Ceci maybe?), or a 2nd and a conditional 4th/5th round pick, or a 3rd round pick, or a third line forward...

We've seen no shortage of RHD swapped for relatively little. Just need to know which GMs you can take advantage of!

I am guessing you didn't read my post before you decided to tell me how wrong I am and lumping me into a certain type of Oilers fan that clearly you think know nothing.

For his contract being a value deal. Yes I think he is a value deal because of where he plays and how he does it. In a perfect, he should be down lower. But he's not. On the Oilers, he plays high up, plays over 20 mins a night, lots on the PK, plays against most teams top players and the Oilers do pretty well. Their d numbers back that up. In a perfect world, you have a better guy than Ceci but when Ceci is on the ice he isn't overwhelmed and good things generally happen. You don't win 16 games in a row with a guy playing 20 mins a night on your defense, a ton of PK time if he's crap. Sorry Adam, I don't believe that is possible. So I look at other teams who have good dmen and who they have in their top 4 and I have a hard time finding guys who make what Ceci makes and who are legit better. Most of them make more, many a lot more. So yes, I think that's a value contract because to replace him you will be paying more money to get at min the same level of play as a top 4 guy. So maybe you think differently of what value contract means, but in my opinion, a value contract means you have a player making less money than his peers doing the same job does.

I also laid out a pretty specific set of things I think a Dman needs to have to be an upgrade on Ceci. All the things you listed that he doesn't do great, I would like that upgraded as well. I also listed his contract as being a big criteria because in a cap world, their cap hit matters. I have looked at teams rosters and I haven't been able to find a guy who is better than Ceci, a legit top 4 guy, who's a right shot and who makes the same or less money than Ceci. I am not the type that thinks I am right and everyone is wrong. So if there is a guy I missed who meets the criteria I laid out, please by all means let me know who he is.

The closest guy I have found is Tanev. Now he doesn't meet the money criteria, he makes 1.25 more. Which is the cost of an extra player, maybe 2. So to make the trade work, you'd have to make the Flames eat money. I would be in favor of getting Tanev but as I stated, what's the cost?

#1 Are they willing to trade to the Oilers. Being in RD, I get to hear radio in both markets. Calgary dispises the Oilers. I think Calgary fans hate Edmonton WAY more than the other way. So will Calgary even trade with the Oilers? They have done a couple but not many.

#2 I think there will be a bidding war for Tanev, especially because of the Leafs. So I think Tanev will cost more than he should. Then I think there is the cost of retaining and based on Calgary radio, the Flames as an organization don't like to retain. So I think to get them to retain a decent chunk will cost you a lot. Then there is the trading in the division tax. Then I think there is trading to the Oilers tax. I am of the belief that even though trading Tanev for asset is the right decision for the Flames and most fans know that, trading him to the Oilers and maybe helping them win a cup will be difficult for their fans to stomach so the return has to be HUGE. So I just don't see the cost being worth it. I think if you trade for Tanev at what it would cost just the Oilers, that's all they could do.

So again, so you are clear with my position. I am 100% onboard with upgrading Ceci. But who's the guy and what's the acquisition cost is my question? So I'd love to hear who the guy is in your opinion.

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829285 is a reply to message #829252 ]	Mon, 29 January 2024 19:38

PlusOne
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RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 29 January 2024 09:48

PlusOne wrote on Sun, 28 January 2024 13:18

RDOilerfan wrote on Sun, 28 January 2024 09:43

Steve wrote on Sat, 27 January 2024 07:38

Ceci seems better this year than last. Might be a function of the new system. He is a decent NHL defensemen who is top 6 on almost every team I think.

It doesn't mean he is the best option for a Stanley cup winning team though. Top teams will try to exploit the Oilers right side in the playoffs. All three of the RHD have their issues defensively. Des also seems to improved, but I bet he also gets exposed again in the playoffs.

I'm not comfortable with both Ceci and Des on the right side in the playoffs. An Ekholm-like upgrade on the RHD would be huge for this team.

A right hand centre for the bottom six would also help, but I think you can find a cheap rental for that. I don't see the need to pay a steep price for a rental at forward.

I'm a guy who doesn't think Ceci is as bad as some people think. I refuse to believe you win 16 games in a row, he like 26-6 or something insane like that, hold your opponents to 2 goals or less in 14 straight, be #2 overall in goals against and 5th in the PK, when you have a player playing over 20 mins a night plus on of your main PK guys. A team can maybe be good defensively for a week or so with a supposedly bad player, not pushing half a season. That is way too many games and the results are way, way too good with numbers to back them up to say this is a fluke. This is the NHL, you can't hide a guy who plays 1/3 of each game.

I am all for upgrading. So if there is a secret Ekholm type of deal out there that no one saw come, sign me up. But I think bringing in a say Tanev who would be a very marginal upgrade in my opinion and have to probably spend way more assets than you should, especially since he plays for a division rival, I think would be foolish.

Your last statement I agree with 100%, except I dpnt think they need an Ekholm as a solid, stay at home 2D would come cheaper.
The problem with your defence of Ceci is that every single defenceman has improved in the last 32 games (I used your window of 26-6 above) EXCEPT for Ceci. I did look at all situations and 5V5 so it did give Ceci credit for his PK role.
He is still the worst defending defencemen on the team by every metric. I am not saying that tells the whole story as I do think he is better than Des and Kulak but in a 2D role he is a pretty big liability.
In that same 32 game window Nurse has made big improvements in all of the eye test, basic stats and advanced stats. In that time Ceci has either stayed the same or even gotten worse by every measurement.
I am not saying we 100% need to replace him as I think he is OK but I don't think he will ever be better than just OK.
If the team could find a way to move him down to 3D I think his numbers would improve 5V5 and he could still be a key PK'er.
In an ideal world they acquire a full on stay at home D to pair with Nurse and push Ceci down to 3RHD. If they could do this with non-roster assets I think it would be a huge win.
In theory they could do that and add some forward bottom 6 depth as well with some skilled cap managment by using expendable roster players or paying someone to take campbell.

I don't see me defending Ceci in a way that says I love the guy and are against upgrading him. That couldn't be farther from the truth. If there is a legit upgrade in all aspects, who isn't undersized, that won't cost you all your assets to bring in, that doesn't cost more cap wise than what Ceci makes and is a seamless fit for Nurse and the Oilers, sign me up. I would bring that guy all day, every day. I just have no clue who that guy is as I don't think he exists.

For the Oilers, I think they need guys on value deals. I feel like Ceci is a value deal and I say that not because I think he's an unreal player. For the Oilers, he plays a lot of minutes with Nurse against most teams best and while not elite, he does it decent. Not amazing but he's not overwhelmed. When Nurse and Ceci are on the ice, generally they do just fine. So in my opinion, just to replace Ceci with the same dman to play the exact same role, I don't think you can get that guy for 3.25 mill.

I place a lot of value on Nurse being comfortable playing with him and that pairing generally getting decent results. Like I said before, their defensive numbers have been outstanding with him playing a lot. I won't dispute he makes the odd mistake and maybe his advanced numbers are lower compared to others. But regardless, Nurse is comfortable playing with him. When they are on the ice, way, way, way, more good happens than bad. So I value continuity between pairs, especially big minute pairs and I don't want them screwing up whatever defensive mojo the whole team has going which Ceci has played a part in. So if they upgrade Ceci, they would be breaking up a successful pair so the guy they bring in better be a perfect fit. He has to be better as a player, he better be a guy the team likes because they like Ceci as a guy a lot. He better gel and compliment with Nurse like Ceci does. So it would be a big risk.

The biggest thing is the acquisition cost. Top 4, right shot dmen are generally harder to find. Lots of teams are generally always looked for top 4 dmen, even more so right shots. Then you look at who badly needs dmen WAY more than the Oilers. THE LEAFS. They are in a wild card spot which is lower than I am sure their organization and fan base expected. I think they will probably make the playoffs but they are in danger of missing. Their defense is BAD. They could probably use at least 2 dmen. Brand new GM, can you imagine the outcry of the fans if they miss? So I am sure he is big time under the gun. So I have to think out of desperation, the Leafs are going to jack up the price for top 4 dmen, especially right shots. Like I said in my previous post, I think Tanev would be a marginal upgrade for the Oilers but he would be a massive upgrade compared to some on the Leafs. So what are the Leafs, the team in the most pressure packed market in the NHL, willing to pay for say Tanev? That is what scares me and I don't think it would be worth because it would probable mean they would have to exhaust all their assets to get him especially since the GM of the provincial rivals will want to get a haul from the Oilers to soften the blow to his fans that he just helped make the hated Oilers better.

I do agree with your position here for the most part.
Enough so I am willing to mark this down as the "once a season PlusOne and RDOF agree" designation for 23/24!

Survivor LX(I) and 67 Champ(i)on

CrusaderPi wrote on Thu, 30 January 2020 12:21

und(i)sputed O.L.F.N Heavybra(i)n Champ(i)on of the Woooooooooooooooooorld. Plus. One.

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829201 is a reply to message #824423 ]	Thu, 25 January 2024 22:14

NCREDiBLE
Messages: 256
Registered: February 2007
Location: Cold Lake, AB

No Cups

Tyler Yaremchuck was saying Alex Texier from Columbus he’s $1.5 mill, plays centre, only 24 and a rfa next season. Texier has played more mins on the penalty kill than any of our boys and was saying how we should try and get him 50% retained. What is the cost tho? Janmark and a second? Thinks they hang up if only a third is offered.

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829352 is a reply to message #824423 ]	Fri, 02 February 2024 08:52

inverno76
Messages: 2336
Registered: September 2005
Location: Prince Albert, Saskatchew...

2 Cups

Mohanan a Jet? I kinda wished he would have ended in Edmonton.

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/indications-are-montreal-canadiens-ar e-trading-f-seasn-monahan-to-winnipeg-jets-1.2070886

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829368 is a reply to message #829352 ]	Fri, 02 February 2024 13:39

Skookum Jim
Messages: 4405
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC

4 Cups

inverno76 wrote on Fri, 02 February 2024 07:52

Mohanan a Jet? I kinda wished he would have ended in Edmonton.

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/indications-are-montreal-canadiens-ar e-trading-f-seasn-monahan-to-winnipeg-jets-1.2070886

Wow.. 1st rounder for MonoHand?

Market will be steep..

McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!!
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829369 is a reply to message #829368 ]	Fri, 02 February 2024 13:42

Kr55
Messages: 10724
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

Skookum Jim wrote on Fri, 02 February 2024 13:39

inverno76 wrote on Fri, 02 February 2024 07:52

Mohanan a Jet? I kinda wished he would have ended in Edmonton.

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/indications-are-montreal-canadiens-ar e-trading-f-seasn-monahan-to-winnipeg-jets-1.2070886

Wow.. 1st rounder for MonoHand?

Market will be steep..

Maybe because Monahan is only a 2M cap hit, and is back from the dead and actually kinda useful in a top 6 role.

Kind of a rare circumstance to be able to get a top 6 vet for so little cap. Montreal played this all well. 6th pick for him, got him to sign cheap, and turned him into a 1st.

guess the Jets want one more kick at the can before Scheifele and Helly's cap hits mess them up.

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829383 is a reply to message #829369 ]	Fri, 02 February 2024 21:39

Adam
Messages: 7165
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

Kr55 wrote on Fri, 02 February 2024 13:42

Skookum Jim wrote on Fri, 02 February 2024 13:39

inverno76 wrote on Fri, 02 February 2024 07:52

Mohanan a Jet? I kinda wished he would have ended in Edmonton.

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/indications-are-montreal-canadiens-ar e-trading-f-seasn-monahan-to-winnipeg-jets-1.2070886

Wow.. 1st rounder for MonoHand?

Market will be steep..

Maybe because Monahan is only a 2M cap hit, and is back from the dead and actually kinda useful in a top 6 role.

Kind of a rare circumstance to be able to get a top 6 vet for so little cap. Montreal played this all well. 6th pick for him, got him to sign cheap, and turned him into a 1st.

guess the Jets want one more kick at the can before Scheifele and Helly's cap hits mess them up.

You’re misremembering his Calgary to Montreal deal. The Habs got a 2025 1st round pick to take on his cap hit from Calgary. He had an injury plagued first season with Montreal, and the n has finally been healthy (and good) this year. Now they also have a 2024 first round for him plus a conditional 3rd in 2027. Not bad at all.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829522 is a reply to message #829383 ]	Thu, 08 February 2024 08:07

Jakey
Messages: 40
Registered: November 2007
Location: Leduc

No Cups

I really beleive we need a top 4 Dman the most right now. The D is good, but not the level to win Stanley IMO. I would look at 2 deals to upgrade, see below.....

1. Ceci, Kulak, 2024 1st, 2026 conditional 3rd (upgrade to 2nd if we reach SC)
for
Parayko ($500K retained)

2. Ceci, Kulak, 2024 1st, 2026 2nd & Bourgault
for
Chychrun & Tarasenko (1/2 retained)

The Parayko is risky because of the term on his contract. 30 year old Dman with 6 more years after this year. He is playing solid this year and healthy. He is the guy we need on the back end to shut down teams like Vegas & Colorado IMO. Blues move out some cap term dollars & still get 2 dmen they can plug and play for this years playoff run. Parayko waives his NTC only for Oilers IMO.

The Sens deal is interesting. We get Chychrun for 1.5 years to play the right side with Nurse, get a top 6 RW on expiring contract. Sens get 2 veterans that can help them with their youth and some top up for future. Oilers take on about $1.1 in cap in difference.

The key to both deals is keeping Broberg & playing him in place of Kulak on the LD 3rd pairing. would have to go out and get a veteran 6/7th Dman to get some depth as well for playoffs.

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829523 is a reply to message #829522 ]	Thu, 08 February 2024 08:25

RDOilerfan
Messages: 3908
Registered: January 2016

3 Cups

Jakey wrote on Thu, 08 February 2024 08:07

I really beleive we need a top 4 Dman the most right now. The D is good, but not the level to win Stanley IMO. I would look at 2 deals to upgrade, see below.....

1. Ceci, Kulak, 2024 1st, 2026 conditional 3rd (upgrade to 2nd if we reach SC)
for
Parayko ($500K retained)

2. Ceci, Kulak, 2024 1st, 2026 2nd & Bourgault
for
Chychrun & Tarasenko (1/2 retained)

The Parayko is risky because of the term on his contract. 30 year old Dman with 6 more years after this year. He is playing solid this year and healthy. He is the guy we need on the back end to shut down teams like Vegas & Colorado IMO. Blues move out some cap term dollars & still get 2 dmen they can plug and play for this years playoff run. Parayko waives his NTC only for Oilers IMO.

The Sens deal is interesting. We get Chychrun for 1.5 years to play the right side with Nurse, get a top 6 RW on expiring contract. Sens get 2 veterans that can help them with their youth and some top up for future. Oilers take on about $1.1 in cap in difference.

The key to both deals is keeping Broberg & playing him in place of Kulak on the LD 3rd pairing. would have to go out and get a veteran 6/7th Dman to get some depth as well for playoffs.

Is Parayko even considered a good top 4 dman anymore? I don't follow the Blues but when they get talked about it sounds like he's trending down. 6 more years at 6.5 mill I don't think is a good idea.

The Oilers need a right shot, Chychrun plays left. Most numbers people say making a dman play their offside really hampers their game. Is he really good at playing the right side?

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829525 is a reply to message #829523 ]	Thu, 08 February 2024 08:52

Jakey
Messages: 40
Registered: November 2007
Location: Leduc

No Cups

Ya Parayko is playing top 4 minutes right now and is looking solid as a shutdown dman. Yes his contract is one that will be a little ugly in the last 3 years or so. Chychrun has played right side before and did ok. Left is better, but maybe try it again and see if he adapts faster/better.

The other guy I would consider for a top 4 RD is Ristolainen in Philly. Yes he has had a bit of a rocky road the last couple of years, but playing for Buffalo and Philly would have been tough on the mind. He is playing solid right now, and getting some praise from torts periodically which says something IMO. At $5.1 cap hit for this year + 3 more he is cap controlled and would be fairly affordable. I would consider him an ok upgrade on Ceci. Maybe Ceci + Janmark ($4.25 cap total) + 2024 1st gets the conversation started???

They could flip Ceci before the trade deadline as they are looking to move a dman as well.

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829526 is a reply to message #829525 ]	Thu, 08 February 2024 08:55

RDOilerfan
Messages: 3908
Registered: January 2016

3 Cups

Jakey wrote on Thu, 08 February 2024 08:52

Ya Parayko is playing top 4 minutes right now and is looking solid as a shutdown dman. Yes his contract is one that will be a little ugly in the last 3 years or so. Chychrun has played right side before and did ok. Left is better, but maybe try it again and see if he adapts faster/better.

The other guy I would consider for a top 4 RD is Ristolainen in Philly. Yes he has had a bit of a rocky road the last couple of years, but playing for Buffalo and Philly would have been tough on the mind. He is playing solid right now, and getting some praise from torts periodically which says something IMO. At $5.1 cap hit for this year + 3 more he is cap controlled and would be fairly affordable. I would consider him an ok upgrade on Ceci. Maybe Ceci + Janmark ($4.25 cap total) + 2024 1st gets the conversation started???

They could flip Ceci before the trade deadline as they are looking to move a dman as well.

Ristolainen now! Coming in guns a blazing.

I respect your courage in suggesting a few of those guys in here. I suspect you will be taking some heat from a few of the posters in here.

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829527 is a reply to message #829526 ]	Thu, 08 February 2024 09:07

NZ Oiler Fan
Messages: 1184
Registered: October 2006
Location: Kensington, PEI

1 Cup

I'd prefer Tanev over any of those options. Calgary is willing to trade within the division, as seen with the Lindholm trade.
I wonder what kind of return they're looking for.

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829528 is a reply to message #829527 ]	Thu, 08 February 2024 09:13

Dragon_Matt
Messages: 760
Registered: January 2009
Location: edmonton

No Cups

From the Athletic - "LeBrun says that the Flames want a second-round pick and “another asset” for Tanev."

Unless that 'other asset' is something egregious jump on that right the F now.

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829531 is a reply to message #829528 ]	Thu, 08 February 2024 10:14

NZ Oiler Fan
Messages: 1184
Registered: October 2006
Location: Kensington, PEI

1 Cup

Dragon_Matt wrote on Thu, 08 February 2024 12:13

From the Athletic - "LeBrun says that the Flames want a second-round pick and “another asset” for Tanev."

Unless that 'other asset' is something egregious jump on that right the F now.

That's it? Wow...we should be all over that.

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829536 is a reply to message #829531 ]	Thu, 08 February 2024 11:47

Mike
Messages: 1396
Registered: August 2005
Location: Moncton, New Brunswick

1 Cup

NZ Oiler Fan wrote on Thu, 08 February 2024 13:14

Dragon_Matt wrote on Thu, 08 February 2024 12:13

From the Athletic - "LeBrun says that the Flames want a second-round pick and “another asset” for Tanev."

Unless that 'other asset' is something egregious jump on that right the F now.

That's it? Wow...we should be all over that.

Haven't watched him too closely, but if he's anything like he used to be, I think he would be a great fit.

Any chance we could throw them another few picks/prospects along with Campbell and have them send us Markstrom? Like Skinner he had a bad run earlier in the year, but seems to be playing better of late (purely based on his box scores). Markstrom Skinner doesn't actually sound that bad as a tandem.

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829539 is a reply to message #829536 ]	Thu, 08 February 2024 14:09

Dragon_Matt
Messages: 760
Registered: January 2009
Location: edmonton

No Cups

We shouldn't have to throw in picks... what, do you want them to get Campbell for free? ;)

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829542 is a reply to message #829539 ]	Thu, 08 February 2024 14:42

RDOilerfan
Messages: 3908
Registered: January 2016

3 Cups

One team I wonder about when it comes to Campbell and for the record, I don't know if it would actually happen or how it would work is Arizona. They have almost 22 mill in cap space being paid to players on IR, not LTIR, but IR on 3 players who will never play again. 13.5 of that is off the books after this year. They use that money to hit the floor.

With the cap going up, the floor is going up. Where is that extra money coming from just to hit the floor? With them playing in a 4600 seat arena. Uncertainty with their future and maybe a real chance they move, who's dying to sign in Arizona that will cost them much money? I have brought it up before, maybe in here, the problem is probably Campbell is actually owed real money. His cap hit is 15 mill but he's owed 13.5.

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829543 is a reply to message #829542 ]	Thu, 08 February 2024 14:44

Dragon_Matt
Messages: 760
Registered: January 2009
Location: edmonton

No Cups

In reality, the only way I see us shedding Campbell is either a miraculous recovery (which may be doubtful) or bad contract out for bad contract in like Lucic/Neal. If that offer presents itself, I think we should jump on it just about regardless of who it may be coming back our way. Can't be less impactful for the Oilers than Campbell.

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829552 is a reply to message #829542 ]	Fri, 09 February 2024 09:13

inverno76
Messages: 2336
Registered: September 2005
Location: Prince Albert, Saskatchew...

2 Cups

Jack Campbell screams Utah. Make it happen.

The buyout will be the only way.

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829555 is a reply to message #829552 ]	Fri, 09 February 2024 09:31

Kr55
Messages: 10724
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

inverno76 wrote on Fri, 09 February 2024 09:13

Jack Campbell screams Utah. Make it happen.

The buyout will be the only way.

Saw some articles saying Campbell is gaining confidence in the AHL. .930 or better in 5/7 of his last starts going 6-1-0.

I'm kinda scared

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829558 is a reply to message #829555 ]	Fri, 09 February 2024 09:51

CrusaderPi
Messages: 7793
Registered: December 2003
Location: AB Highway 100

6 Cups

Kr55 wrote on Fri, 09 February 2024 09:31

inverno76 wrote on Fri, 09 February 2024 09:13

Jack Campbell screams Utah. Make it happen.

The buyout will be the only way.

Saw some articles saying Campbell is gaining confidence in the AHL. .930 or better in 5/7 of his last starts going 6-1-0.

I'm kinda scared

I'm mildly surprise he isn't starting tonight against Anaheim.

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829546 is a reply to message #824423 ]	Fri, 09 February 2024 00:09

Kr55
Messages: 10724
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

Know some ppl don't like analytics, but a nice visual of what the stats say almost any way you look at them about Ceci.

Here is Ceci

https://i.ibb.co/GPtdddC/Cody.jpg

His D partner, which really highlights how much weight Nurse has been carrying by being Ceci's partner:

https://i.ibb.co/xXcG9FZ/Nurse.jpg

Now imagine complimenting Nurse with this guy who keeps putting up elite defensive numbers no matter how crappy the Lames are:

https://i.ibb.co/3TCSWJt/Tanev.jpg

He even generates more offense than Ceci does. Even though try hard Ceci seems like he's gambling all the time, dude gets nothing done except by accident. With the bonus that his constant jumping up is stopping Nurse from being able to be more involved offensively.

[Updated on: Fri, 09 February 2024 00:10]

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829553 is a reply to message #829546 ]	Fri, 09 February 2024 09:18

inverno76
Messages: 2336
Registered: September 2005
Location: Prince Albert, Saskatchew...

2 Cups

It seems like Ceci would be a very moveable contract and when attached to another asset he could likely fetch a positive return. He's been dressed up like a top 4 d-man for most of his career and low end cap struggling teams would likely buy into that theory, analytics be damned.

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829554 is a reply to message #829553 ]	Fri, 09 February 2024 09:29

Kr55
Messages: 10724
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

inverno76 wrote on Fri, 09 February 2024 09:18

It seems like Ceci would be a very moveable contract and when attached to another asset he could likely fetch a positive return. He's been dressed up like a top 4 d-man for most of his career and low end cap struggling teams would likely buy into that theory, analytics be damned.

Nurse has quietly had a very solid year IMO and has carried Ceci. I do hope it's enough to get someone to take him. He would be a great Lames player.

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829776 is a reply to message #824423 ]	Thu, 15 February 2024 15:43

Skookum Jim
Messages: 4405
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC

4 Cups

To me a quality candidate for an acquisition is Lawson Crouse in Ariz.
Big, fast, skilled, ornery, and a leader on a mediocre Ariz. team.
Age: 26
Shoots L
Size: 6'-4" 215lbs.
Drafted #11 overall in 2015 by Florida

Could be a top 6
Contract: 4.3M .. for 3 years after this season...
Reasonable contract if Ariz retains $1+ M ?

When he was originally traded to Ariz. from Florida for 2 x 2nd round picks (as part of a Dave Bolland salary dump) I was PO'd Oilers couldn't pry him loose..

He struggled in Ariz for a few years (that was the time to get him) .. he's been a 20+ goal scorer the past 3 years.

Doubt Ariz would get rid of him.. but you never know what a cash strapped team prioritizes.. Ariz. still owes us for getting Kesselring (now a starting D) in that Bjudstad rental trade!

McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!!
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829779 is a reply to message #824423 ]	Thu, 15 February 2024 16:03

Skookum Jim
Messages: 4405
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC

4 Cups

Guentzal just put on the IR by Penguins.. UBI.. out at least 4 weeks (concussion?).. which is past the trade deadline.. getting interesting for Penguins..

McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!!
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829780 is a reply to message #829779 ]	Thu, 15 February 2024 16:44

NetBOG
Messages: 2939
Registered: January 2006
Location: Parts Unknown

2 Cups

Skookum Jim wrote on Thu, 15 February 2024 16:03

Guentzal just put on the IR by Penguins.. UBI.. out at least 4 weeks (concussion?).. which is past the trade deadline.. getting interesting for Penguins..

Good, one less chance for Holland to make an idiotic trade.

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829783 is a reply to message #829780 ]	Thu, 15 February 2024 18:14

Skookum Jim
Messages: 4405
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC

4 Cups

NetBOG wrote on Thu, 15 February 2024 15:44

Skookum Jim wrote on Thu, 15 February 2024 16:03

Guentzal just put on the IR by Penguins.. UBI.. out at least 4 weeks (concussion?).. which is past the trade deadline.. getting interesting for Penguins..

Good, one less chance for Holland to make an idiotic trade.

Not just Holland anymore.. its Jackson, Holland, Parkatti (Analytics)

McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!!
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829796 is a reply to message #829783 ]	Thu, 15 February 2024 18:58

inverno76
Messages: 2336
Registered: September 2005
Location: Prince Albert, Saskatchew...

2 Cups

Skookum Jim wrote on Thu, 15 February 2024 18:14

NetBOG wrote on Thu, 15 February 2024 15:44

Skookum Jim wrote on Thu, 15 February 2024 16:03

Guentzal just put on the IR by Penguins.. UBI.. out at least 4 weeks (concussion?).. which is past the trade deadline.. getting interesting for Penguins..

Good, one less chance for Holland to make an idiotic trade.

Not just Holland anymore.. its Jackson, Holland, Parkatti (Analytics)

Also drives up the acquisition cost of guys like Eberle and Toffoli if Guentzel is off the market. Dang it.

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829830 is a reply to message #829780 ]	Thu, 15 February 2024 20:46

Adam
Messages: 7165
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

NetBOG wrote on Thu, 15 February 2024 16:44

Skookum Jim wrote on Thu, 15 February 2024 16:03

Guentzal just put on the IR by Penguins.. UBI.. out at least 4 weeks (concussion?).. which is past the trade deadline.. getting interesting for Penguins..

Good, one less chance for Holland to make an idiotic trade.

I do find it hilarious how much some fans over-value draft picks. If you're getting Guentzel for the last month of the season and the playoffs, and you're able to bump Kane out of the top six permanently and bump a Janmark-type out of the lineup? That's worth a lot - especially when the only way you re-sign Draisaitl this summer is a deep, deep post-season run.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829833 is a reply to message #829830 ]	Thu, 15 February 2024 21:42

Skookum Jim
Messages: 4405
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC

4 Cups

unless its top 10 or 12 its usually a long shot to turn in to a top 6 forward or top 2 or 4 D man.. the projection is essentially unknown

As an example..
Oilers traded Reid Schaeffer (#32 overall), a 1st (#24 Tanner Molyendyk), and a 2024 4th.. plus T. Barrie at $4.5M...

for..

M. Ekholm at $6M for 3.5 years, plus a 2024 6th

Ekholm was (and is) a top 1 or 2 D-man.. a known quantity

Schaeffer struggling in the AHL.. Molendyk playing OK in the WHL.. but both still unknowns..

Looking back .. you rightfully make that trade all day long..

McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!!
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829840 is a reply to message #829833 ]	Fri, 16 February 2024 11:32

Dragon_Matt
Messages: 760
Registered: January 2009
Location: edmonton

No Cups

You can't forget, Nashville retained some of Ekholm's salary. that's what tipped the scale.

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Re: 2023-24 Speculation Thread [message #829843 is a reply to message #829840 ]	Fri, 16 February 2024 12:48

oilfan94
Messages: 404
Registered: June 2006
Location: USA

No Cups

Dragon_Matt wrote on Fri, 16 February 2024 13:32

You can't forget, Nashville retained some of Ekholm's salary. that's what tipped the scale.

Fun fact, the Ekholm salary retention is the lowest percentage of retention in NHL cap history at 4%.

Lowest in actual dollars was $62,500, which was 10.2% of Ben Scriven's salary when the Leafs traded him to the Kings in 2013. Somehow I feel like that one will not be beaten. Ekholm is 8th lowest in actual dollars retained.

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