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 McLeod files for arbitration [message #824915]
Wed, 05 July 2023 14:29 Go to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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Quote:


PuckPedia
@PuckPedia

Players must file for arbitration by 5pm ET today.

Some players we confirmed have filed for arbitration:

Ryan McLeod
Kurashev
Howden
Frederic
Duhaime


The good news is no one can offer-sheet him. The bad news is that his contract could be out of our hands if we don't negotiate a deal prior to the hearing.



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #824917 is a reply to message #824915 ]
Wed, 05 July 2023 14:43 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi  is currently offline CrusaderPi
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Adam wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 14:29

Quote:


PuckPedia
@PuckPedia

Players must file for arbitration by 5pm ET today.

Some players we confirmed have filed for arbitration:

Ryan McLeod
Kurashev
Howden
Frederic
Duhaime


The good news is no one can offer-sheet him. The bad news is that his contract could be out of our hands if we don't negotiate a deal prior to the hearing.

I'd be kind of surprised if he went to arb after the solid he did the team last off season.

[Updated on: Wed, 05 July 2023 15:01]


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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #824918 is a reply to message #824917 ]
Wed, 05 July 2023 14:56 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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That's disappointing. Guys who go to arbitration tend to get paid too much in my opinion. I like McLeod but he has big time consistency problems, way too often he plays a perimeter game when a guy his size and speed should be driving the net all the time and his career high is 23 pt. I look at what you actually produced vs what you might. If a person looks at his game logs, they will see a guy who will pile up a bunch of points in a short span, then go really long stretches where you have to check the game sheet to know he existed that game.

Doubling his salary to be around 1.5 mill should be more than fair.



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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #824919 is a reply to message #824918 ]
Wed, 05 July 2023 14:58 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Skoobz  is currently offline Skoobz
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I'd like to see 1.75x2 for him, but I'm afraid it could land at about 2.5x2.


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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #824920 is a reply to message #824918 ]
Wed, 05 July 2023 15:02 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 14:56

That's disappointing. Guys who go to arbitration tend to get paid too much in my opinion. I like McLeod but he has big time consistency problems, way too often he plays a perimeter game when a guy his size and speed should be driving the net all the time and his career high is 23 pt. I look at what you actually produced vs what you might. If a person looks at his game logs, they will see a guy who will pile up a bunch of points in a short span, then go really long stretches where you have to check the game sheet to know he existed that game.

Doubling his salary to be around 1.5 mill should be more than fair.

If arbitrators consistently paid guys too much, they'd stop being selected as arbitrators.



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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #824921 is a reply to message #824920 ]
Wed, 05 July 2023 15:05 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 15:02

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 14:56

That's disappointing. Guys who go to arbitration tend to get paid too much in my opinion. I like McLeod but he has big time consistency problems, way too often he plays a perimeter game when a guy his size and speed should be driving the net all the time and his career high is 23 pt. I look at what you actually produced vs what you might. If a person looks at his game logs, they will see a guy who will pile up a bunch of points in a short span, then go really long stretches where you have to check the game sheet to know he existed that game.

Doubling his salary to be around 1.5 mill should be more than fair.

If arbitrators consistently paid guys too much, they'd stop being selected as arbitrators.

I don't have a list of all the arb case results but I don't recall seeing an arb case where I come away thinking. "wow, what a great deal". The players tend to do pretty well.



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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #824922 is a reply to message #824921 ]
Wed, 05 July 2023 15:11 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 15:05

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 15:02

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 14:56

That's disappointing. Guys who go to arbitration tend to get paid too much in my opinion. I like McLeod but he has big time consistency problems, way too often he plays a perimeter game when a guy his size and speed should be driving the net all the time and his career high is 23 pt. I look at what you actually produced vs what you might. If a person looks at his game logs, they will see a guy who will pile up a bunch of points in a short span, then go really long stretches where you have to check the game sheet to know he existed that game.

Doubling his salary to be around 1.5 mill should be more than fair.

If arbitrators consistently paid guys too much, they'd stop being selected as arbitrators.

I don't have a list of all the arb case results but I don't recall seeing an arb case where I come away thinking. "wow, what a great deal". The players tend to do pretty well.

That says more about your evaluation of players than the arbitration system. I'll say it again, if arbitrators consistently awarded too much they would stop being selected as arbitrators. If arbitrators occasionally awarded too much, teams would walk away from the players. If the system was fundamentally flawed it would have been changed in bargaining or become a bargaining issue.




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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #824924 is a reply to message #824922 ]
Wed, 05 July 2023 15:45 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 15:11

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 15:05

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 15:02

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 14:56

That's disappointing. Guys who go to arbitration tend to get paid too much in my opinion. I like McLeod but he has big time consistency problems, way too often he plays a perimeter game when a guy his size and speed should be driving the net all the time and his career high is 23 pt. I look at what you actually produced vs what you might. If a person looks at his game logs, they will see a guy who will pile up a bunch of points in a short span, then go really long stretches where you have to check the game sheet to know he existed that game.

Doubling his salary to be around 1.5 mill should be more than fair.

If arbitrators consistently paid guys too much, they'd stop being selected as arbitrators.

I don't have a list of all the arb case results but I don't recall seeing an arb case where I come away thinking. "wow, what a great deal". The players tend to do pretty well.

That says more about your evaluation of players than the arbitration system. I'll say it again, if arbitrators consistently awarded too much they would stop being selected as arbitrators. If arbitrators occasionally awarded too much, teams would walk away from the players. If the system was fundamentally flawed it would have been changed in bargaining or become a bargaining issue.




RDO, NHL GMs are dumb. They do dumb things all the time. Last season Holland accepted Yamo'sr 3.1 x 2 arbitration. This year he's decide Yams is worthless. That's dumb. It's noticeable.




This is your quote from the Yamo thread who you said Holland was dumb for accepting the arbitrators contract because he wasn't worth it.

So explain why if the arbitrators are good at their job and handing out good, fair contracts, then why was it dumb for Holland to accept Yamo's at the time? That's what the arbitrator said he was worth and he was dead wrong. The Oilers felt Yamo was paid too much so they traded him to the Wings who agreed and bought him out. Then Seattle also agreed that paying Yamo 3.1 was too much so they signed him for less than half of what he was making this past season.

So, if the arbitrators are good, also explain Puljujarvi's contract? That contract was agreed too just before he was to go to his arb case. The 3 mill would have taken into consideration what the arbitrator was probably going to award him. So the arbitrator thought a guy who scored 5 goals playing with McDavid was a 3mill player.

There is 2 instances where the player got way more than they should have based on the arbitrator. So I assume that guy must be fired then?

[Updated on: Wed, 05 July 2023 15:48]


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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #824926 is a reply to message #824924 ]
Wed, 05 July 2023 15:52 Go to previous messageGo to next message
smyth260  is currently offline smyth260
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RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 14:45

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 15:11

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 15:05

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 15:02

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 14:56

That's disappointing. Guys who go to arbitration tend to get paid too much in my opinion. I like McLeod but he has big time consistency problems, way too often he plays a perimeter game when a guy his size and speed should be driving the net all the time and his career high is 23 pt. I look at what you actually produced vs what you might. If a person looks at his game logs, they will see a guy who will pile up a bunch of points in a short span, then go really long stretches where you have to check the game sheet to know he existed that game.

Doubling his salary to be around 1.5 mill should be more than fair.

If arbitrators consistently paid guys too much, they'd stop being selected as arbitrators.

I don't have a list of all the arb case results but I don't recall seeing an arb case where I come away thinking. "wow, what a great deal". The players tend to do pretty well.

That says more about your evaluation of players than the arbitration system. I'll say it again, if arbitrators consistently awarded too much they would stop being selected as arbitrators. If arbitrators occasionally awarded too much, teams would walk away from the players. If the system was fundamentally flawed it would have been changed in bargaining or become a bargaining issue.




RDO, NHL GMs are dumb. They do dumb things all the time. Last season Holland accepted Yamo'sr 3.1 x 2 arbitration. This year he's decide Yams is worthless. That's dumb. It's noticeable.




This is your quote from the Yamo thread who you said Holland was dumb for accepting the arbitrators contract because he wasn't worth it.

So explain why if the arbitrators are good at their job and handing out good, fair contracts, then why was it dumb for Holland to accept Yamo's at the time? That's what the arbitrator said he was worth and he was dead wrong. The Oilers felt Yamo was paid too much so they traded him to the Wings who agreed and bought him out. Then Seattle also agreed that paying Yamo 3.1 was too much so they signed him for less than half of what he was making this past season.

So, if the arbitrators are good, also explain Puljujarvi's contract? That contract was agreed too just before he was to go to his arb case. The 3 mill would have taken into consideration what the arbitrator was probably going to award him. So the arbitrator thought a guy who scored 5 goals playing with McDavid was a 3mill player.

There is 2 instances where the player got way more than they should have based on the arbitrator. So I assume that guy must be fired then?


Yamamoto didn’t go to arbitration.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/oilers-yamamoto-avoids- arbitration-by-signing-two-year-6-2m-deal/






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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #824929 is a reply to message #824926 ]
Wed, 05 July 2023 16:02 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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smyth260 wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 15:52

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 14:45

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 15:11

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 15:05

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 15:02

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 14:56

That's disappointing. Guys who go to arbitration tend to get paid too much in my opinion. I like McLeod but he has big time consistency problems, way too often he plays a perimeter game when a guy his size and speed should be driving the net all the time and his career high is 23 pt. I look at what you actually produced vs what you might. If a person looks at his game logs, they will see a guy who will pile up a bunch of points in a short span, then go really long stretches where you have to check the game sheet to know he existed that game.

Doubling his salary to be around 1.5 mill should be more than fair.

If arbitrators consistently paid guys too much, they'd stop being selected as arbitrators.

I don't have a list of all the arb case results but I don't recall seeing an arb case where I come away thinking. "wow, what a great deal". The players tend to do pretty well.

That says more about your evaluation of players than the arbitration system. I'll say it again, if arbitrators consistently awarded too much they would stop being selected as arbitrators. If arbitrators occasionally awarded too much, teams would walk away from the players. If the system was fundamentally flawed it would have been changed in bargaining or become a bargaining issue.




RDO, NHL GMs are dumb. They do dumb things all the time. Last season Holland accepted Yamo'sr 3.1 x 2 arbitration. This year he's decide Yams is worthless. That's dumb. It's noticeable.




This is your quote from the Yamo thread who you said Holland was dumb for accepting the arbitrators contract because he wasn't worth it.

So explain why if the arbitrators are good at their job and handing out good, fair contracts, then why was it dumb for Holland to accept Yamo's at the time? That's what the arbitrator said he was worth and he was dead wrong. The Oilers felt Yamo was paid too much so they traded him to the Wings who agreed and bought him out. Then Seattle also agreed that paying Yamo 3.1 was too much so they signed him for less than half of what he was making this past season.

So, if the arbitrators are good, also explain Puljujarvi's contract? That contract was agreed too just before he was to go to his arb case. The 3 mill would have taken into consideration what the arbitrator was probably going to award him. So the arbitrator thought a guy who scored 5 goals playing with McDavid was a 3mill player.

There is 2 instances where the player got way more than they should have based on the arbitrator. So I assume that guy must be fired then?


Yamamoto didn’t go to arbitration.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/oilers-yamamoto-avoids- arbitration-by-signing-two-year-6-2m-deal/





Ok my mistake. Doesn't change much though. The agent wouldn't have agreed to that number if it was far off what he thought/knew the arbitrator was going to award them. All they did was avoid going to the hearing and having the team carve up the player to try and get the number down.



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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #824931 is a reply to message #824929 ]
Wed, 05 July 2023 16:06 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 16:02


Ok my mistake. Doesn't change much though. The agent wouldn't have agreed to that number if it was far off what he thought/knew the arbitrator was going to award them. All they did was avoid going to the hearing and having the team carve up the player to try and get the number down.



The agent doesn't know ahead of time what the arbitrator is going to decide. He'll know what his case is, and he probably has an idea what the GM's position is going to look like, but he doesn't have foreknowledge of the decision before the arguments are even posited.

If he's confident he'll get his way, then that reflects on the GM. If Holland's that bad at contract negotiation and arbitration, then maybe he should get someone on staff who can handle that piece more competently for him. Either that or he should move on entirely.



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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #824927 is a reply to message #824924 ]
Wed, 05 July 2023 15:54 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 15:45

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 15:11

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 15:05

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 15:02

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 14:56

That's disappointing. Guys who go to arbitration tend to get paid too much in my opinion. I like McLeod but he has big time consistency problems, way too often he plays a perimeter game when a guy his size and speed should be driving the net all the time and his career high is 23 pt. I look at what you actually produced vs what you might. If a person looks at his game logs, they will see a guy who will pile up a bunch of points in a short span, then go really long stretches where you have to check the game sheet to know he existed that game.

Doubling his salary to be around 1.5 mill should be more than fair.

If arbitrators consistently paid guys too much, they'd stop being selected as arbitrators.

I don't have a list of all the arb case results but I don't recall seeing an arb case where I come away thinking. "wow, what a great deal". The players tend to do pretty well.

That says more about your evaluation of players than the arbitration system. I'll say it again, if arbitrators consistently awarded too much they would stop being selected as arbitrators. If arbitrators occasionally awarded too much, teams would walk away from the players. If the system was fundamentally flawed it would have been changed in bargaining or become a bargaining issue.




RDO, NHL GMs are dumb. They do dumb things all the time. Last season Holland accepted Yamo'sr 3.1 x 2 arbitration. This year he's decide Yams is worthless. That's dumb. It's noticeable.




This is your quote from the Yamo thread who you said Holland was dumb for accepting the arbitrators contract because he wasn't worth it.

So explain why if the arbitrators are good at their job and handing out good, fair contracts, then why was it dumb for Holland to accept Yamo's at the time? That's what the arbitrator said he was worth and he was dead wrong. The Oilers felt Yamo was paid too much so they traded him to the Wings who agreed and bought him out. Then Seattle also agreed that paying Yamo 3.1 was too much so they signed him for less than half of what he was making this past season.

So, if the arbitrators are good, also explain Puljujarvi's contract? That contract was agreed too just before he was to go to his arb case. The 3 mill would have taken into consideration what the arbitrator was probably going to award him. So the arbitrator thought a guy who scored 5 goals playing with McDavid was a 3mill player.

There is 2 instances where the player got way more than they should have based on the arbitrator. So I assume that guy must be fired then?


Can't blame the arbitrator for Puljujarvi & Yamamoto. If they didn't have a hearing and he didn't get an award, then that's all on Holland for agreeing to it.




"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #824925 is a reply to message #824922 ]
Wed, 05 July 2023 15:50 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 15:11

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 15:05

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 15:02

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 14:56

That's disappointing. Guys who go to arbitration tend to get paid too much in my opinion. I like McLeod but he has big time consistency problems, way too often he plays a perimeter game when a guy his size and speed should be driving the net all the time and his career high is 23 pt. I look at what you actually produced vs what you might. If a person looks at his game logs, they will see a guy who will pile up a bunch of points in a short span, then go really long stretches where you have to check the game sheet to know he existed that game.

Doubling his salary to be around 1.5 mill should be more than fair.

If arbitrators consistently paid guys too much, they'd stop being selected as arbitrators.

I don't have a list of all the arb case results but I don't recall seeing an arb case where I come away thinking. "wow, what a great deal". The players tend to do pretty well.

That says more about your evaluation of players than the arbitration system. I'll say it again, if arbitrators consistently awarded too much they would stop being selected as arbitrators. If arbitrators occasionally awarded too much, teams would walk away from the players. If the system was fundamentally flawed it would have been changed in bargaining or become a bargaining issue.




Also says something about GMs vs. Agents, if the Agents tend to be more convincing more of the time.

That suggests that they're just better at their job. It's all about finding the right comparables and making a strong case. If teams aren't doing that, then they are going to struggle, but it is worth noting, when they're negotiating contracts, they're arguing against these exact same agents.

To me, that's a hire-better-GMs problem.

With regards to McLeod - what RDOF describes is a third line player. If he was consistently producing night in and night out, then he'd have a lot more points and he'd be a top line player and be about to get paid a lot more.

There is definitely a scenario here with McLeod where the team is forced to either walk away from a decision, or needs to trade someone else. If I'm in Holland's shoes, I would be checking constantly to see where there are takers for my over-priced contracts (Foegele, Ceci, Kulak, Nurse, Kane, Campbell) and what I can get in return for those players to clear more cap room. Between this and the danger of an offer sheet for Bouchard, the Oilers need to find some flexibility. I think it's likely there's a market for some of those players, so find someone who values them more, and see what is out there as potential replacements at a lower cost. I wouldn't make an announcement to DNB that I'm only having conversations as a means to clearing more cap room too. Let someone else read through the lines, rather than making it super clear as it'll only result in them trying to charge you an asset to take someone they might actually value.




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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #824932 is a reply to message #824925 ]
Wed, 05 July 2023 16:08 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi  is currently offline CrusaderPi
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Adam wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 15:50



Also says something about GMs vs. Agents, if the Agents tend to be more convincing more of the time.

That suggests that they're just better at their job. It's all about finding the right comparables and making a strong case. If teams aren't doing that, then they are going to struggle, but it is worth noting, when they're negotiating contracts, they're arguing against these exact same agents.

To me, that's a hire-better-GMs problem.

With regards to McLeod - what RDOF describes is a third line player. If he was consistently producing night in and night out, then he'd have a lot more points and he'd be a top line player and be about to get paid a lot more.

There is definitely a scenario here with McLeod where the team is forced to either walk away from a decision, or needs to trade someone else. If I'm in Holland's shoes, I would be checking constantly to see where there are takers for my over-priced contracts (Foegele, Ceci, Kulak, Nurse, Kane, Campbell) and what I can get in return for those players to clear more cap room. Between this and the danger of an offer sheet for Bouchard, the Oilers need to find some flexibility. I think it's likely there's a market for some of those players, so find someone who values them more, and see what is out there as potential replacements at a lower cost. I wouldn't make an announcement to DNB that I'm only having conversations as a means to clearing more cap room too. Let someone else read through the lines, rather than making it super clear as it'll only result in them trying to charge you an asset to take someone they might actually value.



As an arbitration only discussion, this has nothing to do with agents being better at their jobs than GMs. Arbitrators are selected solely on the perception they will give a fair award. If they want to keep working they have to write decisions that both parties will accept as fair. Even if it's only a grudging acceptance.

Now, I agree that agents are probably better prepared, partially because they have an easier job with limited focus, and hiring smarter GMs would be a good idea.



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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #824935 is a reply to message #824932 ]
Wed, 05 July 2023 16:14 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 16:08

Adam wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 15:50



Also says something about GMs vs. Agents, if the Agents tend to be more convincing more of the time.

That suggests that they're just better at their job. It's all about finding the right comparables and making a strong case. If teams aren't doing that, then they are going to struggle, but it is worth noting, when they're negotiating contracts, they're arguing against these exact same agents.

To me, that's a hire-better-GMs problem.

With regards to McLeod - what RDOF describes is a third line player. If he was consistently producing night in and night out, then he'd have a lot more points and he'd be a top line player and be about to get paid a lot more.

There is definitely a scenario here with McLeod where the team is forced to either walk away from a decision, or needs to trade someone else. If I'm in Holland's shoes, I would be checking constantly to see where there are takers for my over-priced contracts (Foegele, Ceci, Kulak, Nurse, Kane, Campbell) and what I can get in return for those players to clear more cap room. Between this and the danger of an offer sheet for Bouchard, the Oilers need to find some flexibility. I think it's likely there's a market for some of those players, so find someone who values them more, and see what is out there as potential replacements at a lower cost. I wouldn't make an announcement to DNB that I'm only having conversations as a means to clearing more cap room too. Let someone else read through the lines, rather than making it super clear as it'll only result in them trying to charge you an asset to take someone they might actually value.



As an arbitration only discussion, this has nothing to do with agents being better at their jobs than GMs. Arbitrators are selected solely on the perception they will give a fair award. If they want to keep working they have to write decisions that both parties will accept as fair. Even if it's only a grudging acceptance.

Now, I agree that agents are probably better prepared, partially because they have an easier job with limited focus, and hiring smarter GMs would be a good idea.


My argument would be that because they're better prepared, they're better at presenting a convincing argument, so they tend to sway the arbitrators to their way of thinking. There's a large number of statistical categories they can base their argument around, so if you're better able to say why a particular metric is the most important for judging your client against his peers, then you're more likely to get a more favourable result.

I think sending a GM, most of whom are former hockey players, in to any kind of hearing against an agent, most of whom are lawyers, is just asking to get handed your lunch. Teams should hire someone specifically for dealing with the contracts, legal discussions and arbitration, and the GM should basically just sit at the table, say nothing and smile nicely unless he's got enough experience in that particular arena to be more than just a mop to wipe the floor with.



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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #824936 is a reply to message #824935 ]
Wed, 05 July 2023 16:17 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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To be fair to the GMs though, I expect that if you sent Yzerman, Blake, Grier, Guerin, etc out on the ice against a bunch of middle-aged lawyers, the GMs would destroy them at hockey!


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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #824954 is a reply to message #824925 ]
Thu, 06 July 2023 15:21 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Adam wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 15:50

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 15:11

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 15:05

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 15:02

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 14:56

That's disappointing. Guys who go to arbitration tend to get paid too much in my opinion. I like McLeod but he has big time consistency problems, way too often he plays a perimeter game when a guy his size and speed should be driving the net all the time and his career high is 23 pt. I look at what you actually produced vs what you might. If a person looks at his game logs, they will see a guy who will pile up a bunch of points in a short span, then go really long stretches where you have to check the game sheet to know he existed that game.

Doubling his salary to be around 1.5 mill should be more than fair.

If arbitrators consistently paid guys too much, they'd stop being selected as arbitrators.

I don't have a list of all the arb case results but I don't recall seeing an arb case where I come away thinking. "wow, what a great deal". The players tend to do pretty well.

That says more about your evaluation of players than the arbitration system. I'll say it again, if arbitrators consistently awarded too much they would stop being selected as arbitrators. If arbitrators occasionally awarded too much, teams would walk away from the players. If the system was fundamentally flawed it would have been changed in bargaining or become a bargaining issue.




The danger of an offer sheet for Bouchard,




There are so few teams with the cap space and their own draft picks to make an offer sheet a viable threat. We need cap flexibility, but I’d have next to zero concerns of an offer sheet. Maybe Chicago, but their first round pick will likely be a lottery pick. Not happening.

I could see Foegele being moved if negotiations with McLeod and Bouchard went wrong, but I don’t think that’d be the most horrible thing. Replaceable player.




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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #824955 is a reply to message #824954 ]
Thu, 06 July 2023 15:31 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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inverno76 wrote on Thu, 06 July 2023 15:21

Adam wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 15:50

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 15:11

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 15:05

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 15:02

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 14:56

That's disappointing. Guys who go to arbitration tend to get paid too much in my opinion. I like McLeod but he has big time consistency problems, way too often he plays a perimeter game when a guy his size and speed should be driving the net all the time and his career high is 23 pt. I look at what you actually produced vs what you might. If a person looks at his game logs, they will see a guy who will pile up a bunch of points in a short span, then go really long stretches where you have to check the game sheet to know he existed that game.

Doubling his salary to be around 1.5 mill should be more than fair.

If arbitrators consistently paid guys too much, they'd stop being selected as arbitrators.

I don't have a list of all the arb case results but I don't recall seeing an arb case where I come away thinking. "wow, what a great deal". The players tend to do pretty well.

That says more about your evaluation of players than the arbitration system. I'll say it again, if arbitrators consistently awarded too much they would stop being selected as arbitrators. If arbitrators occasionally awarded too much, teams would walk away from the players. If the system was fundamentally flawed it would have been changed in bargaining or become a bargaining issue.




The danger of an offer sheet for Bouchard,




There are so few teams with the cap space and their own draft picks to make an offer sheet a viable threat. We need cap flexibility, but I’d have next to zero concerns of an offer sheet. Maybe Chicago, but their first round pick will likely be a lottery pick. Not happening.

I could see Foegele being moved if negotiations with McLeod and Bouchard went wrong, but I don’t think that’d be the most horrible thing. Replaceable player.



It's been mentioned by some in the media, including Oilers mouth piece Stauffer, that some of the key Oilers were asked who are a few players they saw as important to keep. Janmark and Foegele were supposedly mentioned. Take it for what it's worth.

I'm a a bit of the opinion that you might be able to replace Foegele for a cheaper option but if the key guys think he's important to the team, I will defer to them.



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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #824958 is a reply to message #824955 ]
Thu, 06 July 2023 16:30 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 06 July 2023 15:31


It's been mentioned by some in the media, including Oilers mouth piece Stauffer, that some of the key Oilers were asked who are a few players they saw as important to keep. Janmark and Foegele were supposedly mentioned. Take it for what it's worth.

I'm a a bit of the opinion that you might be able to replace Foegele for a cheaper option but if the key guys think he's important to the team, I will defer to them.


I don't think I'd trust the players to answer that question. You'll get people wanting to keep their good buddies more than you'll get a true assessment as to who is critical. The reason you have coaches and management is that you need people who can look at the team from 10,000 feet, not just the relationships within the room.

Not to mention, if you ask players those things, they're not answering based on who's contributing what relative to their cap hit, and that's an important consideration. If we're out of cap space, someone needs to go, and the guys who are the most overpaid are the best ones to move out.



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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #824965 is a reply to message #824955 ]
Thu, 06 July 2023 21:53 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 06 July 2023 15:31

inverno76 wrote on Thu, 06 July 2023 15:21

Adam wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 15:50

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 15:11

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 15:05

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 15:02

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 14:56

That's disappointing. Guys who go to arbitration tend to get paid too much in my opinion. I like McLeod but he has big time consistency problems, way too often he plays a perimeter game when a guy his size and speed should be driving the net all the time and his career high is 23 pt. I look at what you actually produced vs what you might. If a person looks at his game logs, they will see a guy who will pile up a bunch of points in a short span, then go really long stretches where you have to check the game sheet to know he existed that game.

Doubling his salary to be around 1.5 mill should be more than fair.

If arbitrators consistently paid guys too much, they'd stop being selected as arbitrators.

I don't have a list of all the arb case results but I don't recall seeing an arb case where I come away thinking. "wow, what a great deal". The players tend to do pretty well.

That says more about your evaluation of players than the arbitration system. I'll say it again, if arbitrators consistently awarded too much they would stop being selected as arbitrators. If arbitrators occasionally awarded too much, teams would walk away from the players. If the system was fundamentally flawed it would have been changed in bargaining or become a bargaining issue.




The danger of an offer sheet for Bouchard,




There are so few teams with the cap space and their own draft picks to make an offer sheet a viable threat. We need cap flexibility, but I’d have next to zero concerns of an offer sheet. Maybe Chicago, but their first round pick will likely be a lottery pick. Not happening.

I could see Foegele being moved if negotiations with McLeod and Bouchard went wrong, but I don’t think that’d be the most horrible thing. Replaceable player.



It's been mentioned by some in the media, including Oilers mouth piece Stauffer, that some of the key Oilers were asked who are a few players they saw as important to keep. Janmark and Foegele were supposedly mentioned. Take it for what it's worth.

I'm a a bit of the opinion that you might be able to replace Foegele for a cheaper option but if the key guys think he's important to the team, I will defer to them.


The same poll would have wanted Barrie in the room too. Friends get traded all the time, and the NHL community is small, so in all likelihood you’re getting a bro back in return.

Winning is everything to these guys. Foegele has had his opportunities to be a bigger part of the equation and he has not been that guy at that price. He brings very little positive cap value to the team.



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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #824961 is a reply to message #824954 ]
Thu, 06 July 2023 17:00 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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inverno76 wrote on Thu, 06 July 2023 15:21

Adam wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 15:50


The danger of an offer sheet for Bouchard,




There are so few teams with the cap space and their own draft picks to make an offer sheet a viable threat. We need cap flexibility, but I’d have next to zero concerns of an offer sheet. Maybe Chicago, but their first round pick will likely be a lottery pick. Not happening.

I could see Foegele being moved if negotiations with McLeod and Bouchard went wrong, but I don’t think that’d be the most horrible thing. Replaceable player.




I think we're more saved by the unwillingness of GMs to use this method of player acquisition. There are enough teams with the space to do this, that I think it should be a real threat. If the cost to acquire Bouchard is just a 1st, 2nd and 3rd and a reasonable long-term deal, and your only downside is that the Oilers might match and be completely screwed over on their cap management? Man, it's a no-brainer - especially with nearly a third of the league able to do this.

Every so often, the old boys thing benefits us. If he doesn't get offer-sheeted, this is one of those times, because from the player's perspective, it is also a no-brainer to accept.

Consider, if the Oilers offer is a 2-year bridge at $3MM per season, and the offer sheet is $8.5MM/7years, then he's getting $59.5MM as opposed to $6MM. He'd need to be sure that he is going to get paid $10.7MM per year in the 5 years following in order to break even (and that's not factoring in the time value of money). Injuries happen, he could lose his spot on the top unit...there's so many things that can happen in a couple years time, so if someone puts a big number in front of him, how could he not accept?



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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #824964 is a reply to message #824961 ]
Thu, 06 July 2023 21:43 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Adam wrote on Thu, 06 July 2023 17:00

inverno76 wrote on Thu, 06 July 2023 15:21

Adam wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 15:50


The danger of an offer sheet for Bouchard,




There are so few teams with the cap space and their own draft picks to make an offer sheet a viable threat. We need cap flexibility, but I’d have next to zero concerns of an offer sheet. Maybe Chicago, but their first round pick will likely be a lottery pick. Not happening.

I could see Foegele being moved if negotiations with McLeod and Bouchard went wrong, but I don’t think that’d be the most horrible thing. Replaceable player.




I think we're more saved by the unwillingness of GMs to use this method of player acquisition. There are enough teams with the space to do this, that I think it should be a real threat. If the cost to acquire Bouchard is just a 1st, 2nd and 3rd and a reasonable long-term deal, and your only downside is that the Oilers might match and be completely screwed over on their cap management? Man, it's a no-brainer - especially with nearly a third of the league able to do this.

Every so often, the old boys thing benefits us. If he doesn't get offer-sheeted, this is one of those times, because from the player's perspective, it is also a no-brainer to accept.

Consider, if the Oilers offer is a 2-year bridge at $3MM per season, and the offer sheet is $8.5MM/7years, then he's getting $59.5MM as opposed to $6MM. He'd need to be sure that he is going to get paid $10.7MM per year in the 5 years following in order to break even (and that's not factoring in the time value of money). Injuries happen, he could lose his spot on the top unit...there's so many things that can happen in a couple years time, so if someone puts a big number in front of him, how could he not accept?


I heard a breakdown of teams recently and there weren’t many that could offer him a 8M+ deal, and the ones that could would be giving up a lottery pick, already had a stable of young dmen or didn’t have the cap space. IIRC, Chicago, Anaheim, Sabres and Detroit were the most likely candidates and could you see a fit for any of this clubs?

The flat cap and GM reluctance to use this tool has almost eliminated the threat.



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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #824937 is a reply to message #824922 ]
Wed, 05 July 2023 18:05 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 14:11


That says more about your evaluation of players than the arbitration system. I'll say it again, if arbitrators consistently awarded too much they would stop being selected as arbitrators. If arbitrators occasionally awarded too much, teams would walk away from the players. If the system was fundamentally flawed it would have been changed in bargaining or become a bargaining issue.




This conversation got me curious about arbitration awards, and the reality is that the vast majority of them get settled prior to going to arbitration.

Side note: Cap Friendly is a ridiculous free resource that the NHL should thank their lucky stars exists. Keeps fans engaged and talking hockey. The NHL probably hates them.

https://www.capfriendly.com/arbitration/2022

In 2022 only one arbitration award was given out:
Yakov Trenin got 2 years x $1.7M coming off of a 17 goal / 24 point performance. Nashville honoured the award.

In 2021, 20 players or teams filed for arbitration, all were settled prior to the hearing

In 2020, there were26 arbitration filings, only Tyler Bertuzzi's went to a hearing. He got 1 year at $3.5M coming off of back to back 21 G seasons (47 & 48 points respectively). Seems reasonable enough. Detroit honoured the verdict.

In 2019 there were 41 arbitration filings, and all but 6 were settled before the arbitration was decided.
Joel Edmundson - 1 yr x $3.1M Only scored 11 pts that year but was 4th in TOI/game for the Blues D that year, so played a reasonably significant role.

Andrew Copp - 2 yrs x $2.28M. 11 goals/25 pts in 69 games that year. I don't really know where he slotted in for the Jets that year, this one probably feels the most in the player's favour that I've looked at.

Evan Rodrigues - 1 year x $2M. 9 goals/29 pts.

Christian Djoos - 1 year x $1.25M. 10 pts in 45 games. Whatever. He signed for 1 year x $1M the year after and is now out of the league.

Rocco Grimaldi - 1 year x $1M. 13 pts in 53 games. Should note he had 10 goals and 31 points and +10 the next year, definitely worth the $1M.

Anton Forsberg - 1 year x $775k. Played the 2018/19 season in the AHL so I have no idea how to evaluate this contract. He played 35 games for the Blackhawks in 2017/18 with a .908 save percentage. It was a $25k increase over his previous deal. Seems fine.










Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #824923 is a reply to message #824915 ]
Wed, 05 July 2023 15:29 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Between Bouchard and McLeod deals could see Foegle being sent out of town..

Not good times.



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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #824930 is a reply to message #824923 ]
Wed, 05 July 2023 16:05 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Player agents aren't stupid. They wouldn't advise their clients to file for arbitration unless they felt it was in their favor to get awarded a way better contract than the team is offering. Agents don't risk going to an arb hearing and have their player carved up by the team if they think they are going to be rewarded a team friendly, discounted deal. They go because they think they will get top end money.

[Updated on: Wed, 05 July 2023 16:08]


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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #824934 is a reply to message #824930 ]
Wed, 05 July 2023 16:12 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 16:05

Player agents aren't stupid. They wouldn't advise their clients to file for arbitration unless they felt it was in their favor to get awarded a way better contract than the team is offering. Agents don't risk going to an arb hearing and have their player carved up by the team if they think they are going to be rewarded a team friendly, discounted deal. They go because they think they will get top end money.

Again this is a misunderstanding of the arbitration process. The NHLPA is going to accept an arbitrator who isn't perceived as fair to the players. Think of the arb process as more of a time limit device than a decision maker. More often than not arbitration gets the parties to the same end point they would have reached, just faster. It's a simple CBA mechanism (that comes with limited risk for both parties and maybe some hurt feelings) designed to speed the process up.



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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #824933 is a reply to message #824923 ]
Wed, 05 July 2023 16:09 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Skookum Jim wrote on Wed, 05 July 2023 15:29

Between Bouchard and McLeod deals could see Foegle being sent out of town..

Not good times.


I think you could replace Foegele's contributions at a cheaper rate if you took a savvy look at the available players through either free agency or trade. He put up 28 points in 67 games last year, and that's his best season ever. He's 27 now, so he's unlikely to get any better, and he's frustrating to watch blow every breakaway.

Overpaying a third line winger is a luxury the Oilers just don't have, but maybe we can convince someone else to believe that he's just about to break out if given a bigger role...Calling Bill Guerin or Rob Blake!



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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #824944 is a reply to message #824933 ]
Thu, 06 July 2023 12:42 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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I hope they don't look at a recent signing of someone who played 57 games, just like McLeod, and scored 21 pts, compared to McLeod's 23. That would be Klim Kostin. Our own trade may come back to force us with an overpay... again.


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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #824945 is a reply to message #824944 ]
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Dragon_Matt wrote on Thu, 06 July 2023 12:42

I hope they don't look at a recent signing of someone who played 57 games, just like McLeod, and scored 21 pts, compared to McLeod's 23. That would be Klim Kostin. Our own trade may come back to force us with an overpay... again.

I wonder if the Yzerplan would allow a trade like Kostin for McLeod straight up?



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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #824946 is a reply to message #824944 ]
Thu, 06 July 2023 13:07 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Dragon_Matt wrote on Thu, 06 July 2023 12:42

I hope they don't look at a recent signing of someone who played 57 games, just like McLeod, and scored 21 pts, compared to McLeod's 23. That would be Klim Kostin. Our own trade may come back to force us with an overpay... again.

So your preference would have been for the Oilers to keep Kostin, a guy who spent the first 1/5 of the season in the AHL, 2 mill?

I was a fan of Kostin but I wasn't that big of a fan that I wanted a potential 4th liner for 2 mill.



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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #824950 is a reply to message #824946 ]
Thu, 06 July 2023 13:39 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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I do prefer Kostin to McLeod. I think he brings more to the table and scores just as much. Though I don't think either is worth that paycheque... to the Oilers at this time at least.
McLeod is a center, but with a FO of 48% last year, 47% the year prior and the year before that 50%. I'd love to have Mcleod, but I don't think he's going to be a long term 3C solution and can see them moving him to the wing where his speed will be more of a weapon and bringing in a better faceoff man.. Faceoff wins are crucial. Of course, that's assuming he starts scoring more.



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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #824951 is a reply to message #824950 ]
Thu, 06 July 2023 14:35 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Dragon_Matt wrote on Thu, 06 July 2023 13:39

I do prefer Kostin to McLeod. I think he brings more to the table and scores just as much. Though I don't think either is worth that paycheque... to the Oilers at this time at least.
McLeod is a center, but with a FO of 48% last year, 47% the year prior and the year before that 50%. I'd love to have Mcleod, but I don't think he's going to be a long term 3C solution and can see them moving him to the wing where his speed will be more of a weapon and bringing in a better faceoff man.. Faceoff wins are crucial. Of course, that's assuming he starts scoring more.

I guess we will have to disagree. Even though I wish McLeod played a more assertive game and I don't mean fighting, I think centers are more important than wingers. While I liked Kostin, I don't think he is a 2 mill player. Maybe he gets there but I think it was a stretch by the Wings to give him that much. By the sounds of it, there was an offer of a little under2 mill from the KHL. If that is the case, I would have told Kostin to take it then and go play in a worse league if money is all that he wants.



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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #824957 is a reply to message #824951 ]
Thu, 06 July 2023 16:27 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 06 July 2023 14:35

Dragon_Matt wrote on Thu, 06 July 2023 13:39

I do prefer Kostin to McLeod. I think he brings more to the table and scores just as much. Though I don't think either is worth that paycheque... to the Oilers at this time at least.
McLeod is a center, but with a FO of 48% last year, 47% the year prior and the year before that 50%. I'd love to have Mcleod, but I don't think he's going to be a long term 3C solution and can see them moving him to the wing where his speed will be more of a weapon and bringing in a better faceoff man.. Faceoff wins are crucial. Of course, that's assuming he starts scoring more.

I guess we will have to disagree. Even though I wish McLeod played a more assertive game and I don't mean fighting, I think centers are more important than wingers. While I liked Kostin, I don't think he is a 2 mill player. Maybe he gets there but I think it was a stretch by the Wings to give him that much. By the sounds of it, there was an offer of a little under2 mill from the KHL. If that is the case, I would have told Kostin to take it then and go play in a worse league if money is all that he wants.


Yeah, McLeod >>> Kostin and it isn't actually close. Kostin does a bunch of things that make him a fan favourite. Edmonton fans love a guy who'll get his nose dirty, so he's going to be popular for those reasons, but he's the worst winger on the team, and his possession stats were awful. He rode a very high shooting percentage, so he's just primed for a regression.

As pointed out, their numbers weren't a lot different in terms of offensive production, but McLeod scored 11 goals in 78 shots, compared to Kostin scoring 16 in just 56 shots. Unless you think that Kostin is going to be an elite sniper, then you can't count on him scoring on 20% of his shots going forward. And even McLeod's shooting at a high rate there (14%).

Better skater, higher ceiling, more important position, etc. etc. Rattling the boards and fighting occasionally get fans excited, but they just aren't things that teams should ever pay more for.



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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #824953 is a reply to message #824950 ]
Thu, 06 July 2023 14:54 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Dragon_Matt wrote on Thu, 06 July 2023 12:39

I do prefer Kostin to McLeod. I think he brings more to the table and scores just as much. Though I don't think either is worth that paycheque... to the Oilers at this time at least.
McLeod is a center, but with a FO of 48% last year, 47% the year prior and the year before that 50%. I'd love to have Mcleod, but I don't think he's going to be a long term 3C solution and can see them moving him to the wing where his speed will be more of a weapon and bringing in a better faceoff man.. Faceoff wins are crucial. Of course, that's assuming he starts scoring more.


They both provided things the Oilers lacked on the roster.. McLeod speed and ability to transport the puck.. and Kostin in limited minutes pumping in a few complimentary goals and a more than willing combatant when the situations required (i.e. swagger)

Going to miss Kostco. 😪



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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #824947 is a reply to message #824944 ]
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Dragon_Matt wrote on Thu, 06 July 2023 12:42

I hope they don't look at a recent signing of someone who played 57 games, just like McLeod, and scored 21 pts, compared to McLeod's 23. That would be Klim Kostin. Our own trade may come back to force us with an overpay... again.


I would bank on McLeod getting $2MM+ on his deal.



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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #824948 is a reply to message #824947 ]
Thu, 06 July 2023 13:30 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi  is currently offline CrusaderPi
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Adam wrote on Thu, 06 July 2023 13:16

Dragon_Matt wrote on Thu, 06 July 2023 12:42

I hope they don't look at a recent signing of someone who played 57 games, just like McLeod, and scored 21 pts, compared to McLeod's 23. That would be Klim Kostin. Our own trade may come back to force us with an overpay... again.


I would bank on McLeod getting $2MM+ on his deal.

I think two years is pretty standard.



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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #825007 is a reply to message #824915 ]
Mon, 17 July 2023 14:18 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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McLeod's hearing is August 4th, the last possible day.

This is good news for the Oilers because it gives them:

- the most time possible to work out a compromise pre-hearing;
- the most time possible to work out a contract for Bouchard, which would give them the advantage of knowing how much money they have to work with; or
- the most time to hang out at the cabin and enjoy some rest and relaxation before they have to find a suit out of the closet again.

https://www.nhlpa.com/news/1-22518/2023-salary-arbitration-h earing-dates



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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #825121 is a reply to message #824915 ]
Tue, 01 August 2023 20:11 Go to previous messageGo to next message
hockeyplayer01  is currently offline hockeyplayer01
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Everyone must be at the cabin, surprised no comments on this yet. 2 years at $2.1mm per year. Leaves $3.5MM for Bouchard.


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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #825122 is a reply to message #825121 ]
Tue, 01 August 2023 20:48 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
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hockeyplayer01 wrote on Tue, 01 August 2023 20:11

Everyone must be at the cabin, surprised no comments on this yet. 2 years at $2.1mm per year. Leaves $3.5MM for Bouchard.


What the. How did we end up with only 3.5M left with bouch unsigned? I'd be so angry if I owned this team.



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 Re: McLeod files for arbitration [message #825123 is a reply to message #825121 ]
Tue, 01 August 2023 21:28 Go to previous messageGo to previous message
Skookum Jim  is currently offline Skookum Jim
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hockeyplayer01 wrote on Tue, 01 August 2023 19:11

Everyone must be at the cabin, surprised no comments on this yet. 2 years at $2.1mm per year. Leaves $3.5MM for Bouchard.



That's CF number with Pederson on the roster at 775K.. and Nemo on teh team at 762 instead of Broberg.. they can opt to drop Pederson to Bako (-775K), play with 20 forwards.. and swap Nemo with Bro (+100K) .. leaves $4.180M .. If Bouch signs for $3.4 then Oil have enough for another league min. contract

[Updated on: Tue, 01 August 2023 21:30]


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