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 Adam
Messages: 7757
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB
6 Cups
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| NetBOG wrote on Sat, 01 July 2023 10:11 |
per Kevin Weekes
i year x $775,000 + $3,250,000 in potential bonus.
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I've been thinking about this contract a bunch this weekend. It's pretty clear that the Oilers have not decided to use the bonus piece as incentive-based pay at all, but rather just a deferral of money to next year. If they were actually concerned about his return, then they would have set the games played limit a lot higher. 10 games he should make unless something catastrophic happens early.
On the one hand, it's nice to see the Oilers trying to play with the rules a little bit. They've found a way to defer the bulk of his cap hit to next year and once again, Holland is clearly banking on the salary cap going up, so that having $5MM+ in dead cap (including James Neal's buyout) isn't as much of a problem.
That said, I think his recent comments have underscored that he's made the bad gamble on salary cap hits not mattering much over the last 5 years because he had the erroneous belief that the cap would just keep climbing. It's quite possible his failure to negotiate hard on deal after deal is because he's just assumed that it didn't really matter, so long as the NHL just kept giving teams room to sooth regrets over past contracts. The buyout approach he's taken makes a lot more sense through this lens. You're less concerned about a million or two of a buyout if next year's cap is $3-5MM more.
But the fact is, the cap isn't guaranteed to move upwards. The NHL has had a plateau in revenue, which is the big reason why the cap isn't changing. There's no guarantee that it goes up this coming season, and that could coincide with the end of a "bridge" deal for Bouchard and/or McLeod, and possibly the emergence of Broberg too. We could find ourselves in even more cap challenges next year, while paying $3.25MM to Brown to play somewhere else.
I'm on record saying that the team has to go for it this year. They can't really leave any chips on the table when you have Draisaitl deciding whether he's staying as early as a year from now. So ultimately, I'm okay with the gamble.
I would have preferred that they put that games played limit a lot higher...ideally around 40 games, so that you know that you didn't just buy a lemon with next year's cap hit. The fact is that he missed a full year of action, and so while he may be testing well, we won't really know what that looks like until you see him in actual games again. It's not the easiest thing to bounce back from, and we've certainly seen players who have a catastrophic injury and then are never the same, or either re-injure that body part or hurt something else quickly upon return.
The top six looks the best it has in a long time though, so fingers crossed that Brown stays healthy and is productive in that spot.
My one other issue is the continued leakiness of the team. Once again, we have a free agency date without any surprises. The Oilers top target and much about the negotiations seemed to be widely known long before July 1. I fail to see how it benefits the team to have everyone know a week ahead of free agency where our focus lies.
I also worry that the same openness leaves us more vulnerable to offer sheets. Let's say you want a powerplay quarterback for your blue line and you know that the Oilers aren't even contemplating a long-term deal. If you throw out $8MMx7, you know it's way, way more money than is currently being discussed with Bouchard's camp, and he's young enough to cover that bet in the later part of the deal too. Sure, it'll cost you some draft picks, but up to $8.5MM and change per year, that comp is only a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.
The team is super vulnerable to that and if you were being extra devious, you'd first give McLeod a longer deal - maybe $3MMx3 or 4 - to bait the Oilers in to matching. That only costs you a 2nd round pick if they don't, a great price for a 3C. He'd need to continue developing to live up to that contract, but it's not an outrageous contract compared to some signed this summer, and you'd be really hoping that the Oilers just pay it so they have more of their money off the board and so you can really nail them with Bouchard.
Could someone do this anyhow? Absolutely. Looking at the numbers it's pretty clear that the team has cap challenges. However, explaining where you're at on contract talks makes it easier because they know you aren't prepared and haven't been looking at other ways to make things work. Worst case scenario, the Oilers match and you've wreaked absolute havoc with a team that should be a top contender. And a bunch of old men in the Oilers head office will be mad at you, but in a couple years all those guys are retired anyhow.
For what it's worth, there are 10 teams with the picks available to do this: Ducks, Coyotes, Sabres, Hurricanes, Blackhawks, Red Wings, Predators, Kraken, Blues, and Golden Knights. Of those, the Ducks, Coyotes, Blackhawks, Red Wings, Predators, and Kraken have enough cap space to do it. The Sabres and Hurricanes could potentially manage if they're able to clear a little. I can't see how the Blues or Knights could do it.
With regards to an offer sheet to McLeod, half the teams in the league could do it easily.
So here's hoping that Holland stops talking about what's happening and hurries up and gets a deal done. We're basically ripe for the picking right now.
"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks
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Oilers sign Connor Brown |
By: NetBOG on Sat, 01 July 2023 10:11 |
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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown |
By: benv on Sat, 01 July 2023 10:59 |
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By: Kr55 on Sat, 01 July 2023 13:17 |
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By: JPro on Sat, 01 July 2023 17:20 |
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By: Kr55 on Sun, 02 July 2023 15:47 |
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By: Adam on Tue, 04 July 2023 11:23 |
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By: Kr55 on Tue, 11 July 2023 19:42 |
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By: Adam on Wed, 12 July 2023 22:48 |
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By: smyth260 on Mon, 19 February 2024 09:40 |
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By: Kr55 on Mon, 19 February 2024 09:52 |
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By: Adam on Mon, 19 February 2024 21:45 |
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By: Adam on Thu, 13 July 2023 16:15 |
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By: Mike on Fri, 14 July 2023 08:48 |
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By: Goose on Tue, 18 July 2023 11:00 |
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By: NetBOG on Tue, 18 July 2023 13:09 |
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By: Adam on Fri, 14 July 2023 17:15 |
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By: Adam on Wed, 26 July 2023 17:03 |
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By: Adam on Wed, 26 July 2023 16:12 |
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By: Kr55 on Thu, 27 July 2023 11:59 |
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By: Adam on Thu, 27 July 2023 12:36 |
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By: Adam on Fri, 28 July 2023 12:07 |
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By: Adam on Wed, 02 August 2023 16:07 |
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By: Adam on Wed, 02 August 2023 17:32 |
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By: Kr55 on Thu, 26 October 2023 15:08 |
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By: Adam on Thu, 26 October 2023 15:16 |
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By: NetBOG on Thu, 26 October 2023 16:20 |
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By: NetBOG on Thu, 26 October 2023 16:39 |
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By: Adam on Fri, 27 October 2023 15:38 |
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By: Kr55 on Tue, 14 November 2023 23:09 |
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By: Adam on Wed, 15 November 2023 08:07 |
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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown |
By: PlusOne on Tue, 05 March 2024 20:19 |
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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown |
By: Kr55 on Tue, 05 March 2024 20:52 |
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By: g2k on Wed, 06 March 2024 18:24 |
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By: Kr55 on Tue, 07 May 2024 08:53 |
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By: Adam on Tue, 07 May 2024 12:20 |
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By: Kr55 on Tue, 07 May 2024 12:28 |
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By: Jay on Tue, 07 May 2024 20:17 |
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By: Adam on Wed, 08 May 2024 09:38 |
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By: Adam on Wed, 08 May 2024 15:49 |
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