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Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #824838]	Sat, 01 July 2023 10:11

NetBOG
Messages: 2951
Registered: January 2006
Location: Parts Unknown

2 Cups

per Kevin Weekes

i year x $775,000 + $3,250,000 in potential bonus.

[Updated on: Sat, 01 July 2023 11:04]

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #824844 is a reply to message #824838 ]	Sat, 01 July 2023 10:59

benv
Messages: 604
Registered: May 2006
Location: Edmonton

No Cups

TSN saying one year at 4M.

That seems excessive. I hope a lot of that 4M is bonus laden.

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #824846 is a reply to message #824844 ]	Sat, 01 July 2023 11:01

Suomalainen
Messages: 900
Registered: May 2002
Location: Boulder, CO

No Cups

775K base +3.25 in bonus

Because he spent 100+ days on LTIR last year he could get the bonus structure

97.

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #824847 is a reply to message #824844 ]	Sat, 01 July 2023 11:02

Burgeoboy
Messages: 33
Registered: July 2006
Location: Burgeo, Newfoundland

No Cups

benv wrote on Sat, 01 July 2023 14:29

TSN saying one year at 4M.

That seems excessive. I hope a lot of that 4M is bonus laden.

775,000 base , the rest bonus, if nothing else it's creative...

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #824852 is a reply to message #824847 ]	Sat, 01 July 2023 12:32

Dragon_Matt
Messages: 766
Registered: January 2009
Location: edmonton

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Bonus is purely based on games played. Nothing in performance.sure hope he doesn't turn into another 4 mil 3 or 4th liner.

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #824854 is a reply to message #824852 ]	Sat, 01 July 2023 13:17

Kr55
Messages: 10778
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

Dragon_Matt wrote on Sat, 01 July 2023 12:32

Bonus is purely based on games played. Nothing in performance.sure hope he doesn't turn into another 4 mil 3 or 4th liner.

Wha, just games played? Doesn't even have to perform like a 4M winger?

Over last 2 seasons he's scored 10 goals in 68 games.

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #824858 is a reply to message #824854 ]	Sat, 01 July 2023 14:00

CrusaderPi
Messages: 7804
Registered: December 2003
Location: AB Highway 100

6 Cups

Kr55 wrote on Sat, 01 July 2023 13:17

Dragon_Matt wrote on Sat, 01 July 2023 12:32

Bonus is purely based on games played. Nothing in performance.sure hope he doesn't turn into another 4 mil 3 or 4th liner.

Wha, just games played? Doesn't even have to perform like a 4M winger?

Over last 2 seasons he's scored 10 goals in 68 games.

It could eat up a lot of next year’s cap but it’s a good risk if holland thinks new Connor is the piece that pushed the Oilers over the top into being true contender.

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #824867 is a reply to message #824838 ]	Sat, 01 July 2023 17:20

JPro
Messages: 810
Registered: January 2006
Location: Edmonton

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Assuming the league doesn’t find a way to screw us on this contract, this is an excellent “win now” deal by Holland.

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #824874 is a reply to message #824867 ]	Sun, 02 July 2023 14:13

Burgeoboy
Messages: 33
Registered: July 2006
Location: Burgeo, Newfoundland

No Cups

JPro wrote on Sat, 01 July 2023 20:50

Assuming the league doesn’t find a way to screw us on this contract, this is an excellent “win now” deal by Holland.

We don't need the league to screw us, Holland screwed us for next year all by himself. When the rest of the league gets a extra 4 mill in cap space, well be in the exact same player we are this year, with 3.25 mill in dead cap space.

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #824879 is a reply to message #824874 ]	Sun, 02 July 2023 15:47

Kr55
Messages: 10778
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

Burgeoboy wrote on Sun, 02 July 2023 14:13

JPro wrote on Sat, 01 July 2023 20:50

Assuming the league doesn’t find a way to screw us on this contract, this is an excellent “win now” deal by Holland.

He gets a 3.25M bonus if he plays 10 games. So almost guaranteed we are paying Brown 4M and will have a 3.25M penalty in 24/25, even if Brown plays like a 4th liner.

Holland seems to not care about the season after his contract expires :)

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #824904 is a reply to message #824838 ]	Tue, 04 July 2023 11:23

Adam
Messages: 7176
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

NetBOG wrote on Sat, 01 July 2023 10:11

per Kevin Weekes

i year x $775,000 + $3,250,000 in potential bonus.

I've been thinking about this contract a bunch this weekend. It's pretty clear that the Oilers have not decided to use the bonus piece as incentive-based pay at all, but rather just a deferral of money to next year. If they were actually concerned about his return, then they would have set the games played limit a lot higher. 10 games he should make unless something catastrophic happens early.

On the one hand, it's nice to see the Oilers trying to play with the rules a little bit. They've found a way to defer the bulk of his cap hit to next year and once again, Holland is clearly banking on the salary cap going up, so that having $5MM+ in dead cap (including James Neal's buyout) isn't as much of a problem.

That said, I think his recent comments have underscored that he's made the bad gamble on salary cap hits not mattering much over the last 5 years because he had the erroneous belief that the cap would just keep climbing. It's quite possible his failure to negotiate hard on deal after deal is because he's just assumed that it didn't really matter, so long as the NHL just kept giving teams room to sooth regrets over past contracts. The buyout approach he's taken makes a lot more sense through this lens. You're less concerned about a million or two of a buyout if next year's cap is $3-5MM more.

But the fact is, the cap isn't guaranteed to move upwards. The NHL has had a plateau in revenue, which is the big reason why the cap isn't changing. There's no guarantee that it goes up this coming season, and that could coincide with the end of a "bridge" deal for Bouchard and/or McLeod, and possibly the emergence of Broberg too. We could find ourselves in even more cap challenges next year, while paying $3.25MM to Brown to play somewhere else.

I'm on record saying that the team has to go for it this year. They can't really leave any chips on the table when you have Draisaitl deciding whether he's staying as early as a year from now. So ultimately, I'm okay with the gamble.

I would have preferred that they put that games played limit a lot higher...ideally around 40 games, so that you know that you didn't just buy a lemon with next year's cap hit. The fact is that he missed a full year of action, and so while he may be testing well, we won't really know what that looks like until you see him in actual games again. It's not the easiest thing to bounce back from, and we've certainly seen players who have a catastrophic injury and then are never the same, or either re-injure that body part or hurt something else quickly upon return.

The top six looks the best it has in a long time though, so fingers crossed that Brown stays healthy and is productive in that spot.

My one other issue is the continued leakiness of the team. Once again, we have a free agency date without any surprises. The Oilers top target and much about the negotiations seemed to be widely known long before July 1. I fail to see how it benefits the team to have everyone know a week ahead of free agency where our focus lies.

I also worry that the same openness leaves us more vulnerable to offer sheets. Let's say you want a powerplay quarterback for your blue line and you know that the Oilers aren't even contemplating a long-term deal. If you throw out $8MMx7, you know it's way, way more money than is currently being discussed with Bouchard's camp, and he's young enough to cover that bet in the later part of the deal too. Sure, it'll cost you some draft picks, but up to $8.5MM and change per year, that comp is only a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.

The team is super vulnerable to that and if you were being extra devious, you'd first give McLeod a longer deal - maybe $3MMx3 or 4 - to bait the Oilers in to matching. That only costs you a 2nd round pick if they don't, a great price for a 3C. He'd need to continue developing to live up to that contract, but it's not an outrageous contract compared to some signed this summer, and you'd be really hoping that the Oilers just pay it so they have more of their money off the board and so you can really nail them with Bouchard.

Could someone do this anyhow? Absolutely. Looking at the numbers it's pretty clear that the team has cap challenges. However, explaining where you're at on contract talks makes it easier because they know you aren't prepared and haven't been looking at other ways to make things work. Worst case scenario, the Oilers match and you've wreaked absolute havoc with a team that should be a top contender. And a bunch of old men in the Oilers head office will be mad at you, but in a couple years all those guys are retired anyhow.

For what it's worth, there are 10 teams with the picks available to do this: Ducks, Coyotes, Sabres, Hurricanes, Blackhawks, Red Wings, Predators, Kraken, Blues, and Golden Knights. Of those, the Ducks, Coyotes, Blackhawks, Red Wings, Predators, and Kraken have enough cap space to do it. The Sabres and Hurricanes could potentially manage if they're able to clear a little. I can't see how the Blues or Knights could do it.

With regards to an offer sheet to McLeod, half the teams in the league could do it easily.

So here's hoping that Holland stops talking about what's happening and hurries up and gets a deal done. We're basically ripe for the picking right now.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #824981 is a reply to message #824904 ]	Tue, 11 July 2023 19:42

Kr55
Messages: 10778
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

I'm still confused why a guy with 10 goals in 68 games over 2 years deserved to get his career high AAV again with the 3.25M bonus for doing nothing but just showing up.

We just allocated all the potential cap increase for 23/24 to a bonus penalty, and who knows if it will even go up 3.25M.

I guess Holland was convinced that cap penalty dollars in 23/24 are valued at 1/2 of a 22/23 cap dollar by Brown's agent. An no need to sweat Brown having to actually earn the bonus by performing like at least a 2.4M player.

[Updated on: Tue, 11 July 2023 19:47]

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #824982 is a reply to message #824981 ]	Tue, 11 July 2023 22:47

smyth260
Messages: 1081
Registered: November 2007

1 Cup

I agree. Given what the bigger names like Bertuzzi got, plus Tarasenkos troubles, I have a hard time believing that an injured Brown was receiving good offers. 4M is a lot for a middle six forward, it’s a lot for a recently injured forward, and it seems to be especially above market value in the 2023 offseason. A better bonus structure with some good targets for the team makes this more palatable. With a 10GP bonus, what are the odds that we see sub 30 point 4 million Connor Brown?

Clean house or bust

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #824983 is a reply to message #824982 ]	Wed, 12 July 2023 09:33

inverno76
Messages: 2343
Registered: September 2005
Location: Prince Albert, Saskatchew...

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smyth260 wrote on Tue, 11 July 2023 22:47

I’d put the odds at slim to none if he can stay healthy. Even early in his career he was a lock for almost 30 points.

What are the odds he’s 45+?

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #824984 is a reply to message #824982 ]	Wed, 12 July 2023 14:31

oilfan94
Messages: 409
Registered: June 2006
Location: USA

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smyth260 wrote on Wed, 12 July 2023 00:47

The thing is though that this is a unique situation where we can defer a lot of his salary. We didn't have the space to sign any of those other guys. That said, $4M total with the only condition that he play in 10 games is pretty outrageous in it's own right, and coming off a major injury it should be half that. Brown's agent definitely used the Oilers cap issues to his fullest advantage.

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #824985 is a reply to message #824984 ]	Wed, 12 July 2023 14:43

RDOilerfan
Messages: 3908
Registered: January 2016

3 Cups

oilfan94 wrote on Wed, 12 July 2023 14:31

smyth260 wrote on Wed, 12 July 2023 00:47

I think of it another way. If the Oilers signed whoever for 4 mill and that player played in the Oilers top 6 on right wing, scored over 20 goals scored over 40 pts and killed penalties, would I think it's a good signing? Yes I would.

Brown forechecks hard, he kills penalties well, he's scored 20 or more goals twice, one of those times he scored 21 goals in 56 games during the covid short year. That's a 30 goal pace. Another year he score 16 in 71, that's a 19 goal pace playing on an Ottawa team that didn't have a lot of help. He's played with and is friends with McD so I have no doubt in my mind McD will try to ensure he does well. So I think as long as he stays healthy, it's a pretty safe bet this will be a good signing.

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #824987 is a reply to message #824985 ]	Wed, 12 July 2023 22:48

Adam
Messages: 7176
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 12 July 2023 14:43

oilfan94 wrote on Wed, 12 July 2023 14:31

smyth260 wrote on Wed, 12 July 2023 00:47

A few thoughts here:

First, and maybe foremost, "friends with McDavid" shouldn't be one of those attributes we're looking at and seeing as a reason for signing people. It's just not relevant, and when building a team, we should be only concerned with whether the player adds to the team. Connor can make friends with them after they get here if he doesn't have history with them, and honestly, most players are going to take his calls, so get him to make some new friends with top end talent and convince them to come in.

Secondly, if there were any reason to think hiring friends of McDavid would be a good idea, it would be because theoretically, they'll come play for less to hang out with their buddy and have a shot at winning a Cup. We haven't seen that with any of them though, and Brown is no different. He got at least full market value for himself here, considering he's coming off a season where he didn't even play for the vast majority of it. The Oilers should have had some leverage, but they tipped their hand early, making extremely clear where they were focusing all their free agent energy.

If there was another (admittedly weak) reason you would be looking at bringing in Friends O' Connor, it would be to try to convince McDavid that he should stay here past his current contract, but the way this one is set up, it actually makes it harder and less likely that we'll be able to keep Brown next year, as there's an excellent chance he won't be bonus eligible, and he'll already be eating up ~$3.25MM in cap space. If he has a great season, we may not be able to afford him and he can go and help scout out a new landing spot for his bestie in another center.

Thirdly, Yamamoto scored 41 points the year before last. His pace this year, if he'd been healthy, would have had him at 35. Puljujarvi scored at a 45 point pace the year before last. With both those guys, you have been very vocal that you don't think they were worth the $3.1MM we were paying to them. Now, consider, we are likely committing to Connor Brown $3.25MM of cap space to NOT play here the season after this - regardless of if he can "score 40+ points" this year. I always laugh at how much Edmonton fans will covet someone who can score 40 elsewhere, while finding those who score at that rate here to be complete disappointments.

This is a risky signing for Holland, because he's cap-strapped already, and this is almost certainly going to make our cap situation worse next year. If we win the Cup, then you can stomach it, but anything but? Then we have a real problem.

Here's hoping the old coot is still working and hasn't blasted off to the cabin already. I mean, it's July 12th so there's an excellent chance he's already turned off the lights at the offices here and is just sending the occasional email to Bouchard's agent right now. If we have to win this year, then he has a whole lot more work to do.

[Updated on: Thu, 13 July 2023 16:44]

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #824989 is a reply to message #824987 ]	Thu, 13 July 2023 10:35

CrusaderPi
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Location: AB Highway 100

6 Cups

Adam wrote on Wed, 12 July 2023 22:48

This is a risky signing for Holland, because he's cap-strapped already, and this is almost certainly going to make our cap situation worse next year. If we win the Cup, then you can stomach it, but anything but? Then we have a real problem.

I'd settle for a realistic shot at the cup. I had hoped that the McDrai era would have a few more kicks at the can, but it's looking like we need to be praying that the number isn't zero. I really think next year's cap problem now forces an early (and disappointing) Draisaitl trade.

But hey, we get one year of Connor Brown, so that's cool. Hopefully he fixes the defense and goaltending.

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #824990 is a reply to message #824904 ]	Thu, 13 July 2023 11:17

Burgeoboy
Messages: 33
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Location: Burgeo, Newfoundland

No Cups

Adam wrote on Tue, 04 July 2023 14:53

But the fact is, the cap isn't guaranteed to move upwards. The NHL has had a plateau in revenue, which is the big reason why the cap isn't changing. There's no guarantee that it goes up this coming season

I don't like this deal at all, the dead cap next season is bad, but you are wrong about this part. The cap is going up next year and the reason it hasn't been going up, is not due to NHL revenue not raising.

The hasn't gone up because of covid. The player and Owners spilt revenue, during covid league revenue was down a lot, but the players refused to take a pay cut, so the past few years they be "paying back" the owners. That debit is now paid back, so the cap well go up to wear it should be based on current NHL revenue. So, unless your excepting the revenue to drop a lot, the cap is for sure going up next season.

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #824994 is a reply to message #824990 ]	Thu, 13 July 2023 16:15

Adam
Messages: 7176
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

Burgeoboy wrote on Thu, 13 July 2023 11:17

Adam wrote on Tue, 04 July 2023 14:53

https://cleatshub.com/annual-nhl-revenue/

This doesn't have the most recent year's revenue, but definitely you're correct that the deep hole of 2020-21 was the biggest issue. Bettman was predicting $5.7B for last season.

That said, I think my point still holds. It might be likely that the cap goes up, but it's not at all a certainty, and I think managing your hockey team based on the cap always going up is a pretty foolish thing to do. Some forecasting is fine, but Holland's basically said that his whole plan for the Oilers hasn't come to fruition because the cap didn't go up. That's not great from the highest paid GM in the league, especially given that several other teams have found ways to get past that.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #824996 is a reply to message #824994 ]	Fri, 14 July 2023 08:48

Mike
Messages: 1397
Registered: August 2005
Location: Moncton, New Brunswick

1 Cup

Adam wrote on Thu, 13 July 2023 19:15

Burgeoboy wrote on Thu, 13 July 2023 11:17

Adam wrote on Tue, 04 July 2023 14:53

I mean at the very least, make it 40GP or some performance bonus if possible. 10GP is basically telling him, show up a few times and we'll give you $4M.

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #824997 is a reply to message #824994 ]	Fri, 14 July 2023 09:02

Burgeoboy
Messages: 33
Registered: July 2006
Location: Burgeo, Newfoundland

No Cups

Adam wrote on Thu, 13 July 2023 19:45

Burgeoboy wrote on Thu, 13 July 2023 11:17

Adam wrote on Tue, 04 July 2023 14:53

I agree with your over premise, but feel you miss representing what actually happen (unless you think Holland should have foreseen a world wide pandemic). No one was assuming the cap would go up, everyone knew it would, it wasn't a projection, the league had signed a new TV deal, that was the reason everyone knew the cap would raise, then Covid happen.

Go look at Capfriendly, every team that as tried to compete the past few years all have cap issue do to this reason. There's a lot of reasons to hate on Holland, but not predicting Covid shouldn't be one of them and nor should expecting the cap to raise next year, when everyone knows it is going (outside of a major unforeseen event), we are basically getting the jump we should have gotten back then due to the TV deal.

I hate what Holland decided to with that cap space, 3.25m of dead cap space next year for 1 year of Connor Brown, basically puts us in a all or nothing year this season, it a big gamble, if we win the Cup, it be worth it, but outside of that, I see it as a bad move.

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #824998 is a reply to message #824997 ]	Fri, 14 July 2023 09:24

CrusaderPi
Messages: 7804
Registered: December 2003
Location: AB Highway 100

6 Cups

Burgeoboy wrote on Fri, 14 July 2023 09:02

Adam wrote on Thu, 13 July 2023 19:45

Burgeoboy wrote on Thu, 13 July 2023 11:17

Adam wrote on Tue, 04 July 2023 14:53

The pandemic might not have been predictable but after the season stopped in March 2020 it was pretty easy to figure out there would be some cap implications. Going into the pandemic it was mostly ok to be tight to the cap and inflexible because more cap space was always coming. Mostly ok because I think building some wiggle room to adjust is always a smart idea. After the pandemic it was completely unacceptable to be banking on increases because we knew the money situation was going to be chaotic.

By the start of last season, autumn of 2022, Holland's mismanagement of the dollars was obvious and the pandemic could not be used as an excuse. We knew revenue had been down for two season and the players had made the decision they had made. Yet the Oilers went into the season 12 cents from the cap with a short roster. Anything signed after March 2020 should be questioned. And there are a lot of questionable signings since March 2020.

Yes, the cap should go up next year but what if it doesn't? What if the economy is a lot softer than the experts think and people just don't have enough disposable income to pay NHL prices in the big markets? Or maybe the sports media outlets, who keep firing people and reducing their services for some reason, can't make payments on rights contracts. There are realistic scenarios that exist when using 3 million of next year's cap this year is a bad idea.

At least they didn't buy out Yammo.

[Updated on: Fri, 14 July 2023 09:26]

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #825003 is a reply to message #824998 ]	Fri, 14 July 2023 14:27

Burgeoboy
Messages: 33
Registered: July 2006
Location: Burgeo, Newfoundland

No Cups

CrusaderPi wrote on Fri, 14 July 2023 12:54

Burgeoboy wrote on Fri, 14 July 2023 09:02

Adam wrote on Thu, 13 July 2023 19:45

Burgeoboy wrote on Thu, 13 July 2023 11:17

Adam wrote on Tue, 04 July 2023 14:53

How Holland managed the cap after 2020 is certainly questionable and I am not defending all of his moves, but you have to admit him and most GMs where in a though place and it been a big issue league wide. Trying to build a winning team in the flat cap area, was hard for all the top teams. Most, if not all spend to the cap and go in to the season limited in what moves they can make.

Vegas gave away Max Pacioretty for nothing, Tampa as let countless players walk, and overpaid for young cost control players (Hagal/Jeannot), how any pics/assets have Toronto burned trough to have salary retained on rental players, Colorado had to let good players walk, even teams that have not been good have had major cap issues, like Vancouver. The sharks can't trade a 100 point Dman and Matt Dumba can't get a deal in free agency, why are free agents taking 1 year deals? There's clearly cap issues league wide, not just in Edmonton. I am not saying 2 (or 32) wrongs make a right, what I am saying is, clearly the past few years have put a wrench into everyone plans, so I don't think it fair to single out Holland and act like we would have done better, he as actually feared better than most.

Although I don't like every move he has made and yeah I look forward to a change in GM, I think he as done a lot better than some here give him credit for, especially under the circumstances.

How I ended up defending Holland in thread about one of his deal I hate, I well never know....

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #825004 is a reply to message #825003 ]	Fri, 14 July 2023 17:15

smyth260
Messages: 1081
Registered: November 2007

1 Cup

As long as the number of teams stays the same, the job of a GM is the same difficulty every year, no matter what the cap does. A GM has to beat 31 other GMs and that figure doesn’t really change.

All the GMs are playing on the same field. Playoff hockey (where no Bettman point exists) and winning the cup is ultimately a zero sum game.

Clean house or bust

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #825005 is a reply to message #825003 ]	Fri, 14 July 2023 17:15

Adam
Messages: 7176
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

Burgeoboy wrote on Fri, 14 July 2023 14:27

My biggest issue is Holland trying to use that as a crutch right now. The Cap not moving isn't an excuse for failure, especially if you fail to do anything to adapt to the new realities or to work the rules to the best of your ability.

You pointed out a bunch of things that other teams did specifically because they had cap crunches and they needed to work within them. Some of those teams won Cups because they made those moves.

Also - I think if you were talking about the first COVID year and how that was a surprise and how it wreaked havoc, that might be fine. I mean, I still don't like the excuses because the other teams were in the exact same boat and some managed, but we're now in the third off-season post-COVID, so maybe the flat cap shouldn't be the giant surprise that Holland makes out that it is. He's been saying that the Puljujarvi and Yamamoto deals were done with the expectation we were going to have a big jump in cap that didn't materialize, but he should have understood the hole that COVID created and probably this shouldn't have caught him completely off guard when we don't see a big jump this year.

Honestly, I think if your GM starts blaming external factors that affect all teams the same, it's probably a sign that you need a new GM.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #825008 is a reply to message #824996 ]	Tue, 18 July 2023 11:00

Goose
Messages: 1098
Registered: October 2006
Location: Vancouver

1 Cup

Mike wrote on Fri, 14 July 2023 07:48

Adam wrote on Thu, 13 July 2023 19:15

I mean at the very least, make it 40GP or some performance bonus if possible. 10GP is basically telling him, show up a few times and we'll give you $4M.

I'm late to replying to this, but the main issue that I have with this deal is even if the cap does go up next year, it's not going to do the Oilers any good since most of that increase is being eaten up by this contract. It's really putting all of their eggs in the basket of a guy that just missed a full season and almost 20 games the year before. There's a lot of risk there.

And maybe the worst part is: best case scenario, if it works out for them, there's a good chance that they won't be able to re-sign him the next year since they'll already be paying him over $3M.

I'm not even going to mention the fact that his 21 goal season came with a shooting percentage ~6% over his career average.

Having said all of that, I do appreciate the Oilers showing a bit of creativity and I hope that Connor Brown comes in and scores 25 goals. But I worry that if they don't win the Cup this year, they won't be in any better of a position to improve the team next year, and are just spinning their wheels a bit.

Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #825009 is a reply to message #825008 ]	Tue, 18 July 2023 13:09

NetBOG
Messages: 2951
Registered: January 2006
Location: Parts Unknown

2 Cups

Goose wrote on Tue, 18 July 2023 11:00

I think he's going to do well if he's healthy. Comes in with virtually the same numbers that hyman did when he signed.

The downside is potential injury. The entire amount is guaranteed after 10 games, and because it's a bonus, the full cap hit will count even if he does eventually go on LTIR.

What the Oilers can keep in mind is any extra cap at the end of this year will be applied to that bonus, so even if its just $1 million, it will soothe some of the pain.

I've said before I'm not a fan of screaming "we're all in" and making stupid decisions that negatively affect the future, but this one could turn out ok.

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #825026 is a reply to message #824838 ]	Mon, 24 July 2023 12:41

Rocksteady
Messages: 527
Registered: March 2007

No Cups

I know I'm in the minority on this site, but I have no idea who Connor Brown was and why he was such a good get. With 1260 off the air I can't be lazy and I have to ugh... research it.

I know he was McD's teammate a while back and one of Connor's favs and I know he only played 4 games last season as he had his knee reconstructed, and he's middling on points, but beyond that I do not understand how he is the "win now" candidate?

Help me understand.

The very definition of insanity is doing the exact same thing expecting different results.

Generally Disappointed.

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #825028 is a reply to message #825026 ]	Mon, 24 July 2023 13:03

CrusaderPi
Messages: 7804
Registered: December 2003
Location: AB Highway 100

6 Cups

Rocksteady wrote on Mon, 24 July 2023 12:41

Two time 20 goal scorer and played really well on the top line (I think) of the bubble season for the terrible Sens. I don't think you're in the minority.

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #825030 is a reply to message #825028 ]	Mon, 24 July 2023 15:40

inverno76
Messages: 2343
Registered: September 2005
Location: Prince Albert, Saskatchew...

2 Cups

CrusaderPi wrote on Mon, 24 July 2023 13:03

Rocksteady wrote on Mon, 24 July 2023 12:41

Two time 20 goal scorer and played really well on the top line (I think) of the bubble season for the terrible Sens. I don't think you're in the minority.

Analytic guys are loving the acquisition. Take that for what it is worth. Lets hope it translates to the box scores and eye test.

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #825032 is a reply to message #825030 ]	Mon, 24 July 2023 15:58

RDOilerfan
Messages: 3908
Registered: January 2016

3 Cups

I really like the signing. On paper, he brings everything the Oilers needed for a top 6 RW. They needed an upgrade on Yamo in the top 6 but also preferably didn't lose out on the things Yamo was doing for the Oilers already. What did Yamo do for the Oilers that Brown does as well:
- played in the top 6.
- can play with skill players and not have the play die.
- can kill penalties.
- has a sense of defensive hockey.
- Forechecks and goes after pucks.
Brown does all of that.

How is Brown an upgrade:
- He's bigger. Brown is 6'0, 183, Yamo is listed at 5'8, 153. I call BS on Yamo but maybe he's that. So 30lbs heavier and 4 inches taller. That's significant for going to get pucks, mucking in corners, going to the net and playing in the harder areas, scoring in the playoffs and durability. Yamo can't change his size.
- Brown is faster. Yamo skated OK but he wasn't a burner.
- Brown is known to be more aggressive and harder on the forecheck.
- Brown is a better PK guy, something the Oilers need to improve on.
- He's also better defensively.
- He's got more experience.

I think it's shows some creativity on the part of the Oilers to be able to bring in a RW that checks all the boxes they needed. Yes it kicks his salary down the road but they are a better team upfront today. People want them to go for it, this is going for it.

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #825041 is a reply to message #825032 ]	Wed, 26 July 2023 09:31

Rocksteady
Messages: 527
Registered: March 2007

No Cups

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 24 July 2023 15:58

Thanks for that RD.. I think his productivity is a concern plus his new knee may make him a lot rusty at the games frantic pace. McD loves him so that may make him a good add and as RD rightly points out he is bigger than 5'3 Yammo (he's a short and super light dude by a lot no way he's 5'8 except on skates). Yammo was so easy to push off the puck and doesn't have the IQ to avoid the big hits.

I'm not sold that Connor Brown is the perfect replacement for Yammo, hope I'm wrong.

The very definition of insanity is doing the exact same thing expecting different results.

Generally Disappointed.

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #825042 is a reply to message #825041 ]	Wed, 26 July 2023 09:57

RDOilerfan
Messages: 3908
Registered: January 2016

3 Cups

Rocksteady wrote on Wed, 26 July 2023 09:31

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 24 July 2023 15:58

I look at it as the guys who played the last RW spot for the Oilers who had the #1 offence in the league last year were JP and Yamo.

JP in 58 games scored 5 goals, 14 pts
Yamo in 58 games scored 10 goals, 25 pts.

So I think it's all in how you look at it. If a person is wanting Brown to put up 30 goals and 70 pts, that might be a bit of a stretch. In my opinion, Brown needs to score more than 10 goals, 25 pts to be an upgrade on the best of the bunch which was Yamo. Soif he put up 20 goals and 40 pts, both things he's done before and should be attainable plus do all the things I listed and be a bigger body than Yamo, that would be a big time upgrade.

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #825043 is a reply to message #825042 ]	Wed, 26 July 2023 11:41

CrusaderPi
Messages: 7804
Registered: December 2003
Location: AB Highway 100

6 Cups

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 26 July 2023 09:57

Rocksteady wrote on Wed, 26 July 2023 09:31

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 24 July 2023 15:58

This is why it's a bad signing. The best case scenario is probably 20-20-40 and only a middling improvement from the Yammo / PJ slow motion debacle.. It kind of solves the cap problem for this year and the cost of increasing the cap problem for next season. Not that scoring goals matters to the Oilers, they're already good at that. They needed to figure out how to stop goals.

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #825044 is a reply to message #825043 ]	Wed, 26 July 2023 12:28

RDOilerfan
Messages: 3908
Registered: January 2016

3 Cups

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 26 July 2023 11:41

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 26 July 2023 09:57

Rocksteady wrote on Wed, 26 July 2023 09:31

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 24 July 2023 15:58

I said the low end that can probably be expected is 20G 40 pts. I base that on the fact he's done it several times playing with players who no disrespect to them, are not on the level of McD or Leon. So if he can put up those modest numbers with are the same as what Yamo did in 21-22 plus be a bigger body and be better defensively. Then I see it as an upgrade. If he can produce more which with how McD and Leon are playing, I think that is very possible plus be better defensively that Yamo and be better on the PK than Yamo, then I see it as a big upgrade.

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #825045 is a reply to message #825044 ]	Wed, 26 July 2023 13:12

CrusaderPi
Messages: 7804
Registered: December 2003
Location: AB Highway 100

6 Cups

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 26 July 2023 12:28

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 26 July 2023 11:41

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 26 July 2023 09:57

Rocksteady wrote on Wed, 26 July 2023 09:31

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 24 July 2023 15:58

His career high is 21 goals and 43 points (in different years). If you're signing someone expecting a career high type season, you're being foolish. 10-20-30 should not be considered a bad year for a guy with a career best of 43 coming back from a major injury.

He better be better defensively than Yamojarvi.

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #825046 is a reply to message #825045 ]	Wed, 26 July 2023 13:58

RDOilerfan
Messages: 3908
Registered: January 2016

3 Cups

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 26 July 2023 13:12

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 26 July 2023 12:28

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 26 July 2023 11:41

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 26 July 2023 09:57

Rocksteady wrote on Wed, 26 July 2023 09:31

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 24 July 2023 15:58

Hyman's career high in goals and points was 21 G 41 pts in 71 games.

First year as an Oiler playing with on of McD or Leon as his center, 27G, 54 pts in 76 games, career high. Last season 36G, 83 pts in 79 games playing with one of McD or Leon as his center. Do I expect Hyman to score last years numbers every season? Of course not but do I think he will be higher than his previous career high of 21 and 41 for most of the seasons in his contract? Yes I do.

I know you don't like to say anything remotely positive about anything Oilers but is it unrealistic to think Brown could potentially improve on his career highs to some degree? No it is not.

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #825047 is a reply to message #825046 ]	Wed, 26 July 2023 14:44

CrusaderPi
Messages: 7804
Registered: December 2003
Location: AB Highway 100

6 Cups

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 26 July 2023 13:58

It's not. The potential is certainly there. I would just caution against expecting that to happen, there is some risk of a career average year. Which makes some risk of team expectations not being met before Drai's contract is up.

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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Re: Oilers sign Connor Brown [message #825048 is a reply to message #825047 ]	Wed, 26 July 2023 15:12

inverno76
Messages: 2343
Registered: September 2005
Location: Prince Albert, Saskatchew...

2 Cups

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 26 July 2023 14:44

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 26 July 2023 13:58

There is risk with any free agent signing. Heck, there is a risk with players who are already under contract. If we weren't up against the cap the Brown signing would not even be a talking point. We can deliberate the signing all day long, but the proof will be in the pudding and we need to see what the regular season brings us. The player is a solid gamble, but the deferred money sucks. I would take a recovering Brown over a smallish injury prone Yamo or Puljujarvi on most days.

Weak UFA pool and the team needed move all-in. This is Holland's gamble and the future issues of the deferred money is next years problem.

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