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Erosion of Value [message #824805]	Fri, 30 June 2023 15:04

Adam
Messages: 7176
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

There's been a few posts about the Yamamoto trade, and whether the Oilers even could have done better. I think in isolation, the Yamamoto trade, while really not great, isn't that terrible. The Oilers got rid of an error they'd made in the previous contract negotiation, and all it cost them was an over-rated 4th liner who was questionable to sign back with the team.

Here's the last post that inspired me to write the below analysis:

inverno76 wrote on Fri, 30 June 2023 13:19

Hindsight is 20/20. It was the correct move last season and it didn’t turn out. Show me a GM who hasn’t had something go dreadfully wrong for him every season and I’ll show you a guy who is in Dynasty mode in EA Sports.

I think you’re blinded by your dislike of Oilers management on this one.

Show me a team who's done less with their assets!

Since Lowe took over in June 2000, here are the Oilers 1st round draft picks, and what we've got for them.

2000 - Alex Mikhnov - plays two games years after his draft, returns to Russia.
2001 - Ales Hemsky - great draftpick at #13 overall - Lowe's best. Traded for a 3rd rd pick (Sergey Zborovskiy) and (Liam Coughlin). Only Coughlin played and he was dealt for the rights to Anders Nilsson. Nilsson left as UFA.
2002 - Jesse Niinimaki - never amounted to anything. Lowe's worst pick. We actually traded back because the Habs wanted Chris Higgins who'd play over 700 NHL games. We got an 8th rounder too.
2003 - Marc-Antoine Pouliot - trading back again. Maybe we don't need to dig in to who we missed here. We let him go after not offering him a qualifying offer
2004 - Devan Dubnyk - traded for Matt Hendricks. Hendricks let go as UFA.
Rob Schremp - lost on waivers
2005 - Andrew Cogliano - traded for a 2nd rd pick (Marco Roy). Roy faded in to obscurity.
2006 - No first round pick (traded for Roloson). Petry in the 2nd round is our top pick. He's dealt for a 2nd rd pick (Jonas Siegenthaler) and 4th rd pick (Caleb Jones). Jones part of the Duncan Keith deal. Keith retired.
2007 - Sam Gagner - traded for Teddy Purcell. Purcell dealt for 3rd round pick (Matthew Cairns). Cairns fades away.
Alex Plante - Got in 10 NHL games and then faded away. Lots of injury issues.
Riley Nash - Traded for 2nd round pick (Martin Marincin). Traded for Brad Ross & 4th rd pick (Christian Wolanin). They become nothing.
2008 - Jordan Eberle - traded for Ryan Strome -> Ryan Spooner -> Sam Gagner (traded with two 2nd rd picks) -> Athanasiou -> not qualified.
2009 - Magnus Paajarvi - traded straight up for David Perron in MacT's best trade. Perron traded for Klinkhammer & 1st round pick in MacT's next best trade. 1st round pick becomes Matthew Barzal but not before we trade it (AND another pick!) for Griffin Reinhart. Ugh.
2010 - Taylor Hall - Traded for Adam Larsson, who we lost as a UFA.
2011 - Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - he's still here!
Oscar Klefbom - injury issues shortened his career
2012 - Nail Yakupov - Traded for Zach Pochiro & 3rd rd pick (Cameron Crotty). Neither played here.
2013 - Darnell Nurse - still here!
2014 - Leon Draisaitl - still here!
2015 - Connor McDavid - still here!
2016 - Jesse Puljujarvi - traded for Patrik Puistola - who the GM didn't know anything about when asked.
2017 - Kailer Yamamoto - traded with Klim Kostin for "futures"
2018 - Evan Bouchard - still here!
2019 - Philip Broberg - still here!
2020 - Dylan Holloway - still here!
2021 - Xavier Bourgault - still here!
2022 - Reid Schaefer - traded with Tyson Barrie, a 1st, and a 4th for Mattias Ekholm & a 6th next year.

The problem is, this is not an isolated thing. The Oilers regularly have young players who they know how to hype - they do it with fans and media alike again and again until they arrive. There are points where they have value...and then the Oilers reduce that value to ash before flushing them for an underwhelming return. This is just the first round picks (and Petry). The Oilers have had a slew of other players too who they've acquired, often paying top dollar to get, only to have them leave for relatively little, with the team selling the line that they HAD to get rid of them for whatever reason, and that we should all be happy that they got what they did.

Quite often that's followed by the team, its loyal media and its lower end fans running that player down for the rest of time as they try to justify the fact that we have so little to show.

For so many on the list above, the curve was the same. The team picked them, then hyped them, they arrived to great fanfare, with an expectation that they were going to take the league by storm. Most played in the league at a young age. And then in the end, most left unceremoniously for pennies on the dollar.

Yamamoto is just the latest and the Oilers failure to recognize a decent return is one of the reasons they haven't ever gotten over the hump to becoming a perennial contender.

If you compare to the Crosby-era Penguins, who had several high picks too - it's a stark difference. Ryan Whitney was traded for Kunitz, who was a big part of their teams for a decade. Angelo Esposito was part of the trade package that brought them Marian Hossa and Pascal Dupuis. They traded several other high picks to get good players that kept them competitive year after year.

The Blackhawks saw which way the wind was blowing with Cam Barker, and traded him for Kim Johnsson & Nick Leddy. They converted Jack Skille in to Michael Frolik. Dylan Olsen went for Kris Versteeg.

Yes, I have disdain for the Oilers management, but there's pretty good reason to have that disdain. They mishandle assets, and they sell low on EVERYONE.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

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Erosion of Value	By: Adam on Fri, 30 June 2023 15:04
Re: Erosion of Value	By: benv on Fri, 30 June 2023 15:40
Re: Erosion of Value	By: Adam on Fri, 30 June 2023 15:57
Re: Erosion of Value	By: inverno76 on Fri, 30 June 2023 17:26
Re: Erosion of Value	By: Goose on Fri, 30 June 2023 19:42
Re: Erosion of Value	By: inverno76 on Sat, 01 July 2023 10:59
Re: Erosion of Value	By: Dragon_Matt on Sat, 01 July 2023 12:31

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