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Hockey Analytics [message #824398]	Mon, 19 June 2023 17:11

Skookum Jim
Messages: 4418
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC

4 Cups

Seravalli, Gregor, Yaremchuk had Eric Tulsky (Hurricanes AGM, and hockey analytics guru) on the DFO Rundopwn show today.. great interview.. interesting guy, has 26 scientific patents.. and counting..

Has a frank discussion (no pun intended) with the guys about how he got into analytics, and eventually wound up in Carolina as their AGM. He also heads of their pro-scout group.. worth a listen if you want to hear some detail about how analytics is used.

Talks about how they can analyze player data to see if a particular team's player would likely do better, or worse, in their teams system vs. the players current team's. That would be pretty handy. Wonder what the their data said about JP?

https://shows.acast.com/628291d68b882d001309b82c/64906d61919 a030011f77ed9

From Tulsky's Linkedin bio

Quote:

My training is in inorganic chemistry, and I spent ten years working as a researcher, manager, and project leader working to use nanomaterials for biological and energy applications.

I am also naturally a data-driven thinker, and transitioned to leading the data science effort for the Carolina Hurricanes, building predictive and diagnostic models to assess players and on-ice strategies and communicating the results across the organization.

My management skills and abilities as a strategic thinker have led to me branching out into a broader role of organizational leadership for the Hurricanes. While continuing to oversee the data analysis staff, I have also taken on roles overseeing the pro scouting staff and the staff that manages player contracts and the salary cap.

McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!!
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P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

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Re: Hockey Analytics [message #824404 is a reply to message #824398 ]	Tue, 20 June 2023 09:30

Adam
Messages: 7174
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

Skookum Jim wrote on Mon, 19 June 2023 17:11

Quote:

Man - that would be extremely valuable for the Oilers. I've LONG said one of their failings is that they look at players on their own team ultra-critical, but have rose-coloured glasses for other team's players. They ignore that Belanger is playing first line in Arizona and imagine him scoring at the same rate on our third line only to be sorely disappointed ending in a buyout. They imagine that if Ryan Strome is playing in our lineup, then he'll completely replace the offence that we're trading away in Eberle (even though he's only once hit Eberle's low watermark to that point in his career).

I really wish that we saw the Oilers spend more resources on this front, because the guy who books the hotels isn't likely coming up with this data and I don't think he's got Holland's ear anyhow.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

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Re: Hockey Analytics [message #824405 is a reply to message #824398 ]	Tue, 20 June 2023 09:34

RDOilerfan
Messages: 3908
Registered: January 2016

3 Cups

Skookum Jim wrote on Mon, 19 June 2023 17:11

Quote:

I would have liked to hear him comment on JP because they traded for him but doesn't sound like they want him back. JP could be a case of a player that somehow has decent analytic numbers but the physical results don't happen.

I've always said analytics should be used as a tool in combination of other things to evaluate a player or your team.

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Re: Hockey Analytics [message #824406 is a reply to message #824405 ]	Tue, 20 June 2023 09:49

Adam
Messages: 7174
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 20 June 2023 09:34

They literally paid nothing for Puljujarvi, so it was a pretty decent gamble on their part. He did provide some depth for them when they started to get injuries in the playoffs.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

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Re: Hockey Analytics [message #824418 is a reply to message #824406 ]	Tue, 20 June 2023 12:58

Dragon_Matt
Messages: 766
Registered: January 2009
Location: edmonton

No Cups

And even in Carolina, his advanced stats were good. If he wasn't the one doing it, he did help the team put the puck in the net by constantly advancing the play. More O-zone starts mean more scoring chances.

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Re: Hockey Analytics [message #824420 is a reply to message #824418 ]	Tue, 20 June 2023 13:04

RDOilerfan
Messages: 3908
Registered: January 2016

3 Cups

Dragon_Matt wrote on Tue, 20 June 2023 12:58

So if that is the case, then I assume you think it's a slam dunk JP gets signed in the NHL?

If his numbers are good, then I would assume a smart, numbers driven team like the Canes would be all over JP. You don't have to give him his qualifying offer, they could sign him for less and I would assume JP would be happy to stay and play on a team with a bunch of Finns, a few of them being some of his best friends, Aho being one of them.

[Updated on: Tue, 20 June 2023 13:07]

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Re: Hockey Analytics [message #824431 is a reply to message #824420 ]	Tue, 20 June 2023 14:37

Adam
Messages: 7174
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 20 June 2023 13:04

Dragon_Matt wrote on Tue, 20 June 2023 12:58

Maybe they do. Maybe they have a strong-enough, deep-enough team that they decide not to.

They gave themselves an option, and a window to negotiate exclusively with the player if they decide that he makes sense in a depth role at a low-dollar amount.

If they don't, then that doesn't mean it was a bad deal for them, since they literally paid us nothing for him other than a guy that Holland admitted he didn't know anything about.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

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Re: Hockey Analytics [message #824432 is a reply to message #824431 ]	Tue, 20 June 2023 14:48

Dragon_Matt
Messages: 766
Registered: January 2009
Location: edmonton

No Cups

a guy who's an ECHL stud I'm sure.

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Re: Hockey Analytics [message #824436 is a reply to message #824432 ]	Tue, 20 June 2023 15:10

RDOilerfan
Messages: 3908
Registered: January 2016

3 Cups

I think JP will sign back in Finland because he will probably only get 1 yr league min offers if he even gets one that isn't a 2 way. I don't think he wants to be a healthy 12/13th forward who probably gets healthy scratched half the season and definitely won't want to be in the minors. If all Milano could get was a PTO after scoring 14 goals, I don't see how too many teams are dying to sign a winger who could only muster 5 goals playing shot gun with McD for 58 games. Lots of guys in the AHL can play defense but score you little to no goals.

[Updated on: Tue, 20 June 2023 15:12]

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Re: Hockey Analytics [message #824439 is a reply to message #824432 ]	Tue, 20 June 2023 16:04

Adam
Messages: 7174
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

Dragon_Matt wrote on Tue, 20 June 2023 14:48

a guy who's an ECHL stud I'm sure.

He's in Finland and hasn't made any moves to come over. Drafted in 2019. I'm not sure how long we hold his rights for. Not terrible numbers this past year but not world beating either - Holland's comments at the time were that they just got a list of prospects that Carolina would be willing to give up and his scouts picked that name over the other ones. Said he didn't know much about the player and that it was all about cap relief...which can't have signaled to the player that he's in our long-term plans.

Also, maybe his English won't be great and then certain fans will hate him for not being more prepared.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

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Re: Hockey Analytics [message #824443 is a reply to message #824439 ]	Tue, 20 June 2023 16:29

CrusaderPi
Messages: 7803
Registered: December 2003
Location: AB Highway 100

6 Cups

Adam wrote on Tue, 20 June 2023 16:04

Dragon_Matt wrote on Tue, 20 June 2023 14:48

a guy who's an ECHL stud I'm sure.

Maybe kalsarikannit will take hold. My actual favorite Finnish word is myötähäpeä.

I'm always thankful MJ purged my early work from Oilfans. I was barely literate in English coming out of high school.

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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Re: Hockey Analytics [message #824445 is a reply to message #824443 ]	Tue, 20 June 2023 16:31

Adam
Messages: 7174
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 20 June 2023 16:29

Adam wrote on Tue, 20 June 2023 16:04

Dragon_Matt wrote on Tue, 20 June 2023 14:48

a guy who's an ECHL stud I'm sure.

I'm just glad I've managed to be such a positive role model for you in the time since.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

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Re: Hockey Analytics [message #824446 is a reply to message #824398 ]	Tue, 20 June 2023 16:36

Skookum Jim
Messages: 4418
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC

4 Cups

Interesting listening to Tulsky talking about identifying other team's players that might perform better if they were in Carolina's "system" .. made me think of the Oilers.. and how they choose a "system" .. a man-to-man defensive zone coverage.. that doesn't seem to suit their own player's talents and abilities.. seems like they have that backwards.. watching Bouchard, Nurse, Ceci, Kulak, Desharnais chase players up the wing to the blue line.. the coverage just disintegrating behind them.. with a pass going to an open man in front of the net for a Grade A shot.. time after time.. it's a "system" that doesn't seem to work well with the players they deploy to use it..

I think the man-to-man coverage idea was you chase and stay on the puck carrier up the wall and try to retrieve the puck for a turnover.. but that rarely ever seemed to happen.. the D-men weren't able to provide the necessary pressure to get a turnover.. either with speed, agility, stick/reach, or physicality..

The only D-man that was decent at it was Ekholm.. and I heard him interviewed after the season and he was asked about the Oiler man-to-man D system and he said they didn't use it much in Nashville.. didn't sound like he was particularly fond of it..

Hopefully the defensive system gets re-evaluated this off-season and we get something more workable and suited to the abilities of the defensemen that will be using it.

[Updated on: Tue, 20 June 2023 16:39]

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