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 Speculation » 2023 - The Summer of KenPages (6): [1  2  3  4  5  6  >  »]
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 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824110]
Mon, 05 June 2023 16:22 Go to next message
Adam is currently online Adam
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Thoughts and predictions on the summer?

It's not going to be the easiest one for the Oilers to make moves in. As we sit at the start of June, the team has $77,530,000 committed (https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/oilers) with 9 forwards, 7 defence and 2 goalies counting. That probably is over-stating things slightly, since chances are good that Niemelainen isn't starting with the team in the Fall (although there could be some waiver ramifications there). If you include him, we have just under $6MM of cap space. Without him, it's closer to $7MM.

Our UFAs are Derek Ryan, Mattias Janmark, Devin Shore, Nick Bjugstad and Ryan Murray. Of those, I probably would only give Ryan a deal, and preferably a one-year pact at under $1MM. Everyone else is a replaceable part, so I'm only considering bringing back Janmark and Shore if they're dirt cheap and very short deals. I have to think Ryan Murray is likely retiring after yet another injury plagued season, and when he was in the lineup, he wasn't very good. It's worth noting that there was no indication the Oilers even thought of dressing him in place of Desharnais in the playoffs even though Desharnais was awful most of the post-season, and I believe Murray had a clean bill of health. Bjugstad is useful, but he's likely to get a decent number based on his regular season performance prior to coming to the Oilers and he was a non-factor in the post-season. Unless he's taking less than market value, I probably let him go.

RFAs are the bigger issue for the team. We have three: Ryan McLeod, Klim Kostin & Evan Bouchard. McLeod is likely a relatively cheap bridge deal. Kostin probably comes back on an even smaller number (although given his possession stats, it's questionable whether he should). Bouchard - ideally, the Oilers find a way to sign him long-term. It would save them a lot of money in the long-run, even if it costs us more in the next two years. If they don't, he could be the next 8-figure salary on the team when this deal he's about to sign expires. If the playoffs were any indication, he's going to put up a ton of points the next couple years and he's going to make bank at some point.

The issue is that the Oilers don't have the cap space. If you got all of McLeod, Ryan and Kostin signed at an average of $1MM each, plus you sign or promote a couple of players at near league minimum for the 13th and 14th forwards, you have only about $4MM of cap space left. I don't think it's possible to sign Bouchard long-term for less than $5.5MM in an absolute best case scenario. It's probably more than that realistically.

If the Oilers want to make any big moves this summer, it means they need to trade away some salary. Yamamoto and Foegele are the most likely pieces being dangled, but I think the team needs to consider whether there's takers for Codi Ceci's contract (and how he could be replaced) as well as whether they could sell high now on Evander Kane.

With a Kane deal, you'd need to figure out how to replace his offence - we'd need to have a bead on another player who can play on the top two lines if he goes - but I think his piss-poor passing, his penchant for taking bad penalties and his sometimes disinterested defensive play make him expendable, while his burgeoning reputation as a guy who can play in the top six and "protect his linemates" will get him a value bump from some old school GM. I think you could make out really well in a trade for him this summer - and there's no guarantee that lasts, given how his stops with previous teams trended.

Finally, there's the goaltending. For me, I hate the idea of starting next season with Skinner/Campbell as the tandem again. The team is somewhat married to that, with $5MM/year to Campbell for the next four seasons, and $2.6MM per for Skinner for the next three. I think Campbell is unmovable though - he was awful last year and his contract is massive. It would probably involve making a harsher deal than the Oilers needed to do to move Kassian to get rid of him now. Buying him out is not super palatable given that it would mean a $1.5MM cap hit for the next eight years (with a couple of variations in years 2-4). Skinner might be easier to deal, and I'd definitely be considering it after his playoff meltdown unless the goalie scouts/coaches felt that there are some addressable issues that can be worked on. Again - we'd need to have someone coming back the other way (or at least concurrently) and we don't have a lot of money available for that.

As dreadful as that 8-year buyout is, I am leaning more and more towards thinking that might be the best route for the team rather than hoping blindly on a bounceback in an absolutely critical season next year.

With limited cap space, limited free agents and limited draft picks, there could be a temptation to bridge Bouchard & McLeod, sign Ryan and Kostin to short cheap deals, sign a couple more JAGs, and then get to the cabin early...you have to hope though that the management understands A) how key this coming season really is, and the consequences if they fall well short again, and B) where the team fell short this year, and what pieces are needed to get us over the hump moving forward.

I will say, if the rumours are true that Holland is preparing an exit, then it can't happen soon enough. It would be folly to have him operate through the summer and hand the reins over after all the money has already been spent. Given that it's already June and we've seen no confirmation, I don't believe that it's happening this year (unless the Oilers really are trying to bungle everything).



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824120 is a reply to message #824110 ]
Tue, 06 June 2023 09:13 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently offline Kr55
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Think we may have to stick it out with Campbell for another year. I would not be opposed to moving skinner if I had any faith this org could find a solid underrated goalie. They are out there, but don't think we know how to find them. I guess I'm saying we screwed on goaltending :)

Yams and Ceci I would like to see replaced. Bouch long term deal is a must IMO.

So much hinges on this team being able to find good players at a low price this summer. We need a better rhd partner for Nurse. We need a winger that can hold onto a puck for a while and make some plays. Feel like these are monumental tasks for this org to pull off.

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824121 is a reply to message #824110 ]
Tue, 06 June 2023 09:14 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Dragon_Matt is currently online Dragon_Matt
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Don't trade Skinner. I think that'd be a similar strategy to trading Eberle away after his first playoff taste, except he's not a goalie. Skinner will be our guy going forward.

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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824124 is a reply to message #824121 ]
Tue, 06 June 2023 10:48 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently online Adam
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Dragon_Matt wrote on Tue, 06 June 2023 09:14

Don't trade Skinner. I think that'd be a similar strategy to trading Eberle away after his first playoff taste, except he's not a goalie. Skinner will be our guy going forward.


I'm less convinced. I could definitely see Skinner being similar to the last couple of Calder winning goalies - Andrew Raycroft and Steve Mason. Sometimes a guy just plays well for a little while until other teams figure out his riddle - and then they eat him alive. Los Angeles and Vegas both seemed to have his number, which gives me real concern.

If we had a long window, maybe you can roll the dice and wait to see if he improves, but the fact is, we have a single year to get this right. And if you go back with this tandem and they blow our playoff chances again - and to be clear, the difference in play between Skinner and Hill is the biggest reason that the Knights are in the Finals and the Oilers are out.

I don't think you can afford to risk the penultimate year of Draisaitl's deal on maybe the rookie goalie gets better and doesn't full-on melt-down in the playoffs. We crater in the first round and it means we are trading Draisaitl that summer likely.

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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824133 is a reply to message #824124 ]
Tue, 06 June 2023 13:17 Go to previous messageGo to next message
smyth260 is currently online smyth260
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Adam wrote on Tue, 06 June 2023 09:48

Dragon_Matt wrote on Tue, 06 June 2023 09:14

Don't trade Skinner. I think that'd be a similar strategy to trading Eberle away after his first playoff taste, except he's not a goalie. Skinner will be our guy going forward.


I'm less convinced. I could definitely see Skinner being similar to the last couple of Calder winning goalies - Andrew Raycroft and Steve Mason. Sometimes a guy just plays well for a little while until other teams figure out his riddle - and then they eat him alive. Los Angeles and Vegas both seemed to have his number, which gives me real concern.

If we had a long window, maybe you can roll the dice and wait to see if he improves, but the fact is, we have a single year to get this right. And if you go back with this tandem and they blow our playoff chances again - and to be clear, the difference in play between Skinner and Hill is the biggest reason that the Knights are in the Finals and the Oilers are out.

I don't think you can afford to risk the penultimate year of Draisaitl's deal on maybe the rookie goalie gets better and doesn't full-on melt-down in the playoffs. We crater in the first round and it means we are trading Draisaitl that summer likely.


I agree with the overall point that the Oilers do have to get it right. But what is the solution goalie(s) here and at what cost? How confident do you feel that you could get it right given the nature of the position? Hellebuyck seems to be the only one who will be available and who you hope can be reliable. Hope...

Goaltending is a largely unpredictable position getting more and more unpredictable as scoring goes up due to league changes. Maybe there are 6 or 7 guys you can depend on to be pretty reliable. Even then, it's kind of far from guaranteed. I'm sure that Florida would tell you that former 2 time Vezina winner Sergei Bobrovsky was a big disappoinment for many years until he wasn't. He looked like a sure thing, but he wasn't one. Is the cost of what it would take to get Hellebuyck worth that risk?

On the other end of the finals, Adin Hill is the 4th string goalie for Vegas. Good on the Knights for having that kind of goalie depth. But his success is probably more of a complement to Vegas' systems rather than the player. No matter who they put in net, they seem to get decent goaltending. The coach even describes their play as a goaltender friendly system.

https://theathletic.com/4301298/2023/03/12/golden-knights-jo nathan-quick-goalie-system/

The Avalanche have a goaltending carousel. They have gotten nice goaltending from Grubauer, Kuemper, and Georgiev the last 3 seasons. Grubauer and Kuemper have left for bigger dollars, and subsequently dropped off. But no matter who is behind the pipes there, the numbers are solid.

Team defense is becoming more important in an era where goaltending is volatile. I'd rather put any resources have towards that, and get a cheap 3rd goalie who is relatively unknown (like Vegas did with Hill) who could be competent if the other two are not getting it done.

[Updated on: Tue, 06 June 2023 17:04]

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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824123 is a reply to message #824110 ]
Tue, 06 June 2023 09:53 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently offline RDOilerfan
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I think they will resign Ryan and Janmark for probably under what they made last year. I'd have no problem bringing them back.

I think they will try to resign Bjugstad as I think he fit in well but it will come down to what he wants. Either take less money and have a chance to win or take more money from some crappy team. I think some crappy will look at his 17 goals plus 3 in the playoffs and offer him a lot more than what the Oilers can afford.

Bouchard signing long term I think is a pipe dream. If he is fine to sign a long term deal at a range around 5.5-6 then I think the Oilers do it and figure out the money after. But I don't see Bouchard wanting to do that and if I was him, I wouldn't. I would sign a 2 year deal at around 3.5-4, similar to Dobson. That's a nice raise from what he was making. Then I rack up big points playing on the Oilers, maybe win a cup. Then when I am 25/26 with a couple of 60 pt seasons under my belt, I cash in. I think he gives up money right now by signing long term.

I think they resign Kostin and if he was smart, he won't go to another team. He hasn't found any traction with the Blues. He found a team that has embraced him, a fan base that embraced him and a role he excels in. There is a big risk he messes that up going to another place for a few 100K more.

I don't back the brinks truck up for McLeod. First I am not in favor of signing bottom 6 guys to long term deals. Second, I think he still hasn't established himself as a 3rd line center. I think he has all the tools to be a good one but he is still very inconsistent. He scored the majority of his goals in a couple short sections of games but went long, long spurts with nothing. He didn't get a single goal in the playoffs. He still plays a perimeter game way too often and I think your 3rd line center has to be over 50% on draws because he will get lots of d-zone starts and be on the PK. If they want to double his salary to around 1.5 on a 2-3 yr deal, that's fine but I wouldn't go higher than that.

I'd like to see them maybe replace Ceci but the 2 questions I have are:
#1 What is Ceci? Is he the guy that was not a high end guy but was pretty solid year 1 or last years Ceci. Plus how much of his drop off was because of his groin injury that he had for most of the season. Those can be very limiting.
#2 Who can you get to replace him that is better but also doesn't cost you much more. At 3.25 mill, he's got a pretty cheap contract for a guy that can be in a lot of teams top 4. Taking the Oilers being tight to the cap out for a second, replacing him at that price point with a better guy is hard to do.

Goaltending. I would be fine if they returned Skinner and Campbell. Vegas and the Avs the year before are proving you don't need elite goaltending to win. You just need decent goaltending with a good team. The Oilers are a good team. I see Skinner with a year under his belt being more settled. I am not sure he will improve on his regular season numbers but his playoffs I think will be better just because of experience. Campbell I think will 100% be a lot better. This isn't me going fan boy on him, this is looking at his career numbers. His numbers dropped a bit thanks to this season so he is now a career .910. He was at .888 this year. It's extremely likely he will bounce back to closer to his career numbers otherwise he's no longer an NHL goalie. I don't see a trade happening. A buy out makes zero sense because you'd have 1.5 mill on the books for 8 years and to replace him, you probably aren't getting a better guy for much less than 3 mill. So when you combine the cap and paying a guy 2.75 ish, you are getting little in cap relief.

The tandem as a whole is only 7.6 mill for the next 3 yrs which is reasonable so in the grand scheme of things, whether your back up makes 5 mill or your starter, who cares.

I think they need to do whatever it takes to get rid of Yamo and not take any salary back. For a bottom 6 guy who scores you 10-12 goals and does some PK, you can find those guys for under 1.5 mill. Janmark scored 10 goals, 25 pts in 66 games and was decent on the PK. I am sure there are other guys similar that will be out there looking for work on a winning team.

I like the player but I look hard at moving Foegele for the reasons I said above about Yamo. I think Foegele is a better fit for the team than Yamo but there will probably be guys available who can do the job that Foegele does for less.

I have said it before. Due to where they are as a team looking to win a cup, the Oilers need to stop looking at the players like Yamo and Foegele and even McLeod and trying to project what they might be in the future and paying them a little more in the hopes it will be a value deal. I they need to look at the player they are now, what role they will be and pay them accordingly. The gave Yamo and Foegele a little more because they thought they would produce more than they have. They haven't. They are 3rd line winger and 3rd line wingers in my opinion shouldn't be making more than 2 mill. McLeod, maybe has a bit better of a case but at best he will be a 3rd line center on the Oilers and in his NHL career. If he was established as a full time good 3rd line center, he should be making in the 2's. He's not there yet so he shouldn't making that.

[Updated on: Tue, 06 June 2023 10:01]

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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824126 is a reply to message #824123 ]
Tue, 06 June 2023 11:53 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently offline RDOilerfan
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I think trading Skinner would be an absolutely terrible decision and reeks of a knee jerk, overreacting to 1 playoff.

#1 Who are you getting to replace him? First of all, if you are trading him, you have to know for certain he's incapable of doing the job. You have to know for certain that the numbers he put up in the regular season were a fluke and he can't do that again. He was 2.50 GA and .914 decent but not like he's up their with Ullmark. Skinners numbers are middle range. You have to know for certain the numbers he put up in the playoffs are what he is.

I don't see how anyone could know any of that. Like I said, his regular season numbers were decent but not eye popping. So if he's a decent NHL goalie, they should be repeatable. If he was rocking a 2 GA and .930, then yes, I would say he could be a 1 yr wonder like the guys listed above. Same with the playoffs. He was a rookie, it was his first year in the NHL, first playoff and especially first time playing in the playoffs in his home town. Rookies in their playoffs lots of times buckle a little under the pressure but most don't have playing for the hometown team on top of that and the extra pressure of being the goalie. So do I think maybe the spotlight got to the rookie a little. YUP! Not to mention he has a young baby and for a person is a parent, most know that first one that first year is a STEEP learning curve and impacts every single thing you do. So is there a pretty good chance with 1 yr under his belt both on ice and off the ice as well as at home, will he be better prepared for the playoffs? Most likely yes.

#2 If you are trading Skinner, then you have be certain the guy you are getting back is better than Skinner and who won't cost you more than 2.6 mill. They already have cost certainty for 3 yrs with Campbell and Skinner at 7.6 mill. I don't see how you get a better goalie for cheaper than 2.6 mill. The shiny toy this offseason will be Hill who is a UFA. I am sure he will be the hot commodity just like Driedger was a few years ago. If you look at Hill's numbers this past season, they are pretty similar to Skinners and his career is .910 that is with twice as much experience as Skinner. He's shot the lights out this playoffs. Good for him. So either Vegas or someone else is going to want to sign him and when he has a cup ring, his value is going to sky rocket. He was making 2.175 mill this year. He will get well north of that. So someone is going to be paying him a ton more money than what he makes right now based on a 15 or 16 game red hot streak. So buyer beware.

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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824127 is a reply to message #824126 ]
Tue, 06 June 2023 12:09 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently online Adam
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RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 06 June 2023 11:53

I think trading Skinner would be an absolutely terrible decision and reeks of a knee jerk, overreacting to 1 playoff.

#1 Who are you getting to replace him? First of all, if you are trading him, you have to know for certain he's incapable of doing the job. You have to know for certain that the numbers he put up in the regular season were a fluke and he can't do that again. He was 2.50 GA and .914 decent but not like he's up their with Ullmark. Skinners numbers are middle range. You have to know for certain the numbers he put up in the playoffs are what he is.

I don't see how anyone could know any of that. Like I said, his regular season numbers were decent but not eye popping. So if he's a decent NHL goalie, they should be repeatable. If he was rocking a 2 GA and .930, then yes, I would say he could be a 1 yr wonder like the guys listed above. Same with the playoffs. He was a rookie, it was his first year in the NHL, first playoff and especially first time playing in the playoffs in his home town. Rookies in their playoffs lots of times buckle a little under the pressure but most don't have playing for the hometown team on top of that and the extra pressure of being the goalie. So do I think maybe the spotlight got to the rookie a little. YUP! Not to mention he has a young baby and for a person is a parent, most know that first one that first year is a STEEP learning curve and impacts every single thing you do. So is there a pretty good chance with 1 yr under his belt both on ice and off the ice as well as at home, will he be better prepared for the playoffs? Most likely yes.

#2 If you are trading Skinner, then you have be certain the guy you are getting back is better than Skinner and who won't cost you more than 2.6 mill. They already have cost certainty for 3 yrs with Campbell and Skinner at 7.6 mill. I don't see how you get a better goalie for cheaper than 2.6 mill. The shiny toy this offseason will be Hill who is a UFA. I am sure he will be the hot commodity just like Driedger was a few years ago. If you look at Hill's numbers this past season, they are pretty similar to Skinners and his career is .910 that is with twice as much experience as Skinner. He's shot the lights out this playoffs. Good for him. So either Vegas or someone else is going to want to sign him and when he has a cup ring, his value is going to sky rocket. He was making 2.175 mill this year. He will get well north of that. So someone is going to be paying him a ton more money than what he makes right now based on a 15 or 16 game red hot streak. So buyer beware.


This is where Kr55's concerns about the Oilers are pretty valid.

If you had a team that had an ability to scout goalies or to develop them, then you'd have a much better opportunity to decide whether there is someone out there who is better.

For what it's worth, I don't care about keeping the cost under Skinner's - if there's someone for $6MM per year who can give us better more consistent goaltending and not wilt under the pressure of playoffs, then I would absolutely find a way - even if that means I flush both goaltenders this summer.

If I'm GM, the first question I'd have for the goalie coaches and scouts (if we had any I felt I could trust at all) is was the complete collapse of Skinner based on pressure and nerves, or was it based on the other teams exploiting a weakness in his game.

If it's the former, then I am moving on if I can find a better option. We already have one unmoveable basketcase of a goalie, we don't need two. The pressure is going to be even higher next year as everyone will know it's a critical playoff and possibly the last with both McDavid and Draisaitl on the team. If someone isn't mentally capable of carrying that load, then we need to find a replacement.

If instead it's something structural in his game that the other teams diagnosed and completely exploited for two straight playoff rounds, then I'm asking the follow-up question of whether it can be easily fixed. If it can, then great - work with him all summer and make sure that's patched solid. If it is more difficult, then he's the next Jim Carey, and he's going to get lit up a lot in the future as everyone figures him out and it's again time to sell high and part ways.

The thing to remember with Skinner is that after he wins his hardware this summer, his value will be at its peak. If he were to flame out again next year though, we'd have to give up assets to give his contract away. We've long bought high and sold low here, and while you are correct - it would have to be the right deal to pull the trigger and we'd either need his replacement coming back, or have a bead on a replacement from somewhere else concurrently. However, given his playoff performance, he isn't CLOSE to being seen as an untouchable in my mind.

I view the goalie situation as our area of greatest risk currently, and so if I'm able to fix that, even if it means I pay more money for the new tandem, I think it's absolutely worth it. It would be folly to hope that Campbell/Skinner is suddenly so much better next year.

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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824129 is a reply to message #824127 ]
Tue, 06 June 2023 12:28 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently offline Kr55
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Adam wrote on Tue, 06 June 2023 12:09

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 06 June 2023 11:53

I think trading Skinner would be an absolutely terrible decision and reeks of a knee jerk, overreacting to 1 playoff.

#1 Who are you getting to replace him? First of all, if you are trading him, you have to know for certain he's incapable of doing the job. You have to know for certain that the numbers he put up in the regular season were a fluke and he can't do that again. He was 2.50 GA and .914 decent but not like he's up their with Ullmark. Skinners numbers are middle range. You have to know for certain the numbers he put up in the playoffs are what he is.

I don't see how anyone could know any of that. Like I said, his regular season numbers were decent but not eye popping. So if he's a decent NHL goalie, they should be repeatable. If he was rocking a 2 GA and .930, then yes, I would say he could be a 1 yr wonder like the guys listed above. Same with the playoffs. He was a rookie, it was his first year in the NHL, first playoff and especially first time playing in the playoffs in his home town. Rookies in their playoffs lots of times buckle a little under the pressure but most don't have playing for the hometown team on top of that and the extra pressure of being the goalie. So do I think maybe the spotlight got to the rookie a little. YUP! Not to mention he has a young baby and for a person is a parent, most know that first one that first year is a STEEP learning curve and impacts every single thing you do. So is there a pretty good chance with 1 yr under his belt both on ice and off the ice as well as at home, will he be better prepared for the playoffs? Most likely yes.

#2 If you are trading Skinner, then you have be certain the guy you are getting back is better than Skinner and who won't cost you more than 2.6 mill. They already have cost certainty for 3 yrs with Campbell and Skinner at 7.6 mill. I don't see how you get a better goalie for cheaper than 2.6 mill. The shiny toy this offseason will be Hill who is a UFA. I am sure he will be the hot commodity just like Driedger was a few years ago. If you look at Hill's numbers this past season, they are pretty similar to Skinners and his career is .910 that is with twice as much experience as Skinner. He's shot the lights out this playoffs. Good for him. So either Vegas or someone else is going to want to sign him and when he has a cup ring, his value is going to sky rocket. He was making 2.175 mill this year. He will get well north of that. So someone is going to be paying him a ton more money than what he makes right now based on a 15 or 16 game red hot streak. So buyer beware.


This is where Kr55's concerns about the Oilers are pretty valid.

If you had a team that had an ability to scout goalies or to develop them, then you'd have a much better opportunity to decide whether there is someone out there who is better.

For what it's worth, I don't care about keeping the cost under Skinner's - if there's someone for $6MM per year who can give us better more consistent goaltending and not wilt under the pressure of playoffs, then I would absolutely find a way - even if that means I flush both goaltenders this summer.

If I'm GM, the first question I'd have for the goalie coaches and scouts (if we had any I felt I could trust at all) is was the complete collapse of Skinner based on pressure and nerves, or was it based on the other teams exploiting a weakness in his game.

If it's the former, then I am moving on if I can find a better option. We already have one unmoveable basketcase of a goalie, we don't need two. The pressure is going to be even higher next year as everyone will know it's a critical playoff and possibly the last with both McDavid and Draisaitl on the team. If someone isn't mentally capable of carrying that load, then we need to find a replacement.

If instead it's something structural in his game that the other teams diagnosed and completely exploited for two straight playoff rounds, then I'm asking the follow-up question of whether it can be easily fixed. If it can, then great - work with him all summer and make sure that's patched solid. If it is more difficult, then he's the next Jim Carey, and he's going to get lit up a lot in the future as everyone figures him out and it's again time to sell high and part ways.

The thing to remember with Skinner is that after he wins his hardware this summer, his value will be at its peak. If he were to flame out again next year though, we'd have to give up assets to give his contract away. We've long bought high and sold low here, and while you are correct - it would have to be the right deal to pull the trigger and we'd either need his replacement coming back, or have a bead on a replacement from somewhere else concurrently. However, given his playoff performance, he isn't CLOSE to being seen as an untouchable in my mind.

I view the goalie situation as our area of greatest risk currently, and so if I'm able to fix that, even if it means I pay more money for the new tandem, I think it's absolutely worth it. It would be folly to hope that Campbell/Skinner is suddenly so much better next year.


Lol, how jaded can a fan be?

Basically everything is "I'd like to see us take this chance to improve the team ... but I don't think this org is capable of pulling it off".

Optimism overload.

I heard multiple times with the radio on, guys like Staffer and 1260 guys hinting we might just ice basically the same team next year.

I missed a quote in the Vegas series that someone recently pointing out, where Marchessault flat out said that we are playing man on man defense in our end and they think they can create opportunities around our net because of it. How embarrassing, especially with the Nurse/Ceci pair chasing guys 30+ ft from the net and our forwards seeming to have no clue our D would do that, not covering for them properly. There is a major fix needed too in how we defend. We're pretty much the only playoff team that didn't know how to collapse to the net to stop chances and rebounds in close. Maybe I'm off base just bashing Ceci and some questionable defensive play and he was just following a crappy system that was exposed.

I do think Skinner was exposed as well. Poor use of his stick, his confidence being low seemed to really break his effort level for making 2nd/3rd efforts on saves (both of these issues are just death when you also have your skaters playing man on man, abandoning your net constantly). Those are things that can be fixed with a young goalie. But, again, have we created the proper environment for our goalies where their weaknesses can be effectively worked on and improved? I'm not feeling it with Schwartz.

[Updated on: Tue, 06 June 2023 12:30]

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824131 is a reply to message #824129 ]
Tue, 06 June 2023 12:39 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Mike is currently offline Mike
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Kr55 wrote on Tue, 06 June 2023 15:28

I'm not feeling it with Schwartz.


How does that is that guy still employed by the team? I'm not saying it's all his fault, but basically every goalie we've had under his tutelage has gotten worse. Except Mike Smith who probably just told him to pound sand.

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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824139 is a reply to message #824131 ]
Tue, 06 June 2023 14:02 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Dragon_Matt is currently online Dragon_Matt
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I have said since the Dubnyk/Deslauriers year (2014), Schwartz is terrible. I absolutely hate the 'new' style where goalies keep their glove down low. It might work in lower levels, relying on faster muscle movement to bring the glove up than to bring it down in a traditional goalie stance, but we get scored on top glove a LOT in the NHL. I think Skinner had 14 goals against this playoffs there.

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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824147 is a reply to message #824139 ]
Tue, 06 June 2023 17:38 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently online Adam
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Dragon_Matt wrote on Tue, 06 June 2023 14:02

I have said since the Dubnyk/Deslauriers year (2014), Schwartz is terrible. I absolutely hate the 'new' style where goalies keep their glove down low. It might work in lower levels, relying on faster muscle movement to bring the glove up than to bring it down in a traditional goalie stance, but we get scored on top glove a LOT in the NHL. I think Skinner had 14 goals against this playoffs there.


Chabot was the goalie coach back then. Schwartz never had Dubnyk.

He was hired in November 2014 during the Scrivens/Fasth season https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/blog-chabot-relieved-of-duti es-schwartz-replacing-him/c-34100. Chabot was the first sacrifice as MacTavish tried not to fire Dallas Eakins, and since they were scrambling and making a knee-jerk fire instead of a measured decision, they just grabbed the first able body and gave him the position. Schwartz was working down the hall for the Oil Kings, and they were able to say that he tutored Laurent Brossoit through juniors and Brossoit had been acquired by MacTavish so it was a marriage made in heaven.

Schwartz has outlasted two GMs to date in MacTavish & Chiarelli, as well as stayed in the coaching staff past Eakins and through Nelson, McLellan, and Tippett's tenures. The Oilers do seem to love keeping one remnant of the coaching staff through many iterations. Once Buchberger held that same role.

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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824132 is a reply to message #824129 ]
Tue, 06 June 2023 13:06 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Kr55 wrote on Tue, 06 June 2023 12:28

Adam wrote on Tue, 06 June 2023 12:09

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 06 June 2023 11:53

I think trading Skinner would be an absolutely terrible decision and reeks of a knee jerk, overreacting to 1 playoff.

#1 Who are you getting to replace him? First of all, if you are trading him, you have to know for certain he's incapable of doing the job. You have to know for certain that the numbers he put up in the regular season were a fluke and he can't do that again. He was 2.50 GA and .914 decent but not like he's up their with Ullmark. Skinners numbers are middle range. You have to know for certain the numbers he put up in the playoffs are what he is.

I don't see how anyone could know any of that. Like I said, his regular season numbers were decent but not eye popping. So if he's a decent NHL goalie, they should be repeatable. If he was rocking a 2 GA and .930, then yes, I would say he could be a 1 yr wonder like the guys listed above. Same with the playoffs. He was a rookie, it was his first year in the NHL, first playoff and especially first time playing in the playoffs in his home town. Rookies in their playoffs lots of times buckle a little under the pressure but most don't have playing for the hometown team on top of that and the extra pressure of being the goalie. So do I think maybe the spotlight got to the rookie a little. YUP! Not to mention he has a young baby and for a person is a parent, most know that first one that first year is a STEEP learning curve and impacts every single thing you do. So is there a pretty good chance with 1 yr under his belt both on ice and off the ice as well as at home, will he be better prepared for the playoffs? Most likely yes.

#2 If you are trading Skinner, then you have be certain the guy you are getting back is better than Skinner and who won't cost you more than 2.6 mill. They already have cost certainty for 3 yrs with Campbell and Skinner at 7.6 mill. I don't see how you get a better goalie for cheaper than 2.6 mill. The shiny toy this offseason will be Hill who is a UFA. I am sure he will be the hot commodity just like Driedger was a few years ago. If you look at Hill's numbers this past season, they are pretty similar to Skinners and his career is .910 that is with twice as much experience as Skinner. He's shot the lights out this playoffs. Good for him. So either Vegas or someone else is going to want to sign him and when he has a cup ring, his value is going to sky rocket. He was making 2.175 mill this year. He will get well north of that. So someone is going to be paying him a ton more money than what he makes right now based on a 15 or 16 game red hot streak. So buyer beware.


This is where Kr55's concerns about the Oilers are pretty valid.

If you had a team that had an ability to scout goalies or to develop them, then you'd have a much better opportunity to decide whether there is someone out there who is better.

For what it's worth, I don't care about keeping the cost under Skinner's - if there's someone for $6MM per year who can give us better more consistent goaltending and not wilt under the pressure of playoffs, then I would absolutely find a way - even if that means I flush both goaltenders this summer.

If I'm GM, the first question I'd have for the goalie coaches and scouts (if we had any I felt I could trust at all) is was the complete collapse of Skinner based on pressure and nerves, or was it based on the other teams exploiting a weakness in his game.

If it's the former, then I am moving on if I can find a better option. We already have one unmoveable basketcase of a goalie, we don't need two. The pressure is going to be even higher next year as everyone will know it's a critical playoff and possibly the last with both McDavid and Draisaitl on the team. If someone isn't mentally capable of carrying that load, then we need to find a replacement.

If instead it's something structural in his game that the other teams diagnosed and completely exploited for two straight playoff rounds, then I'm asking the follow-up question of whether it can be easily fixed. If it can, then great - work with him all summer and make sure that's patched solid. If it is more difficult, then he's the next Jim Carey, and he's going to get lit up a lot in the future as everyone figures him out and it's again time to sell high and part ways.

The thing to remember with Skinner is that after he wins his hardware this summer, his value will be at its peak. If he were to flame out again next year though, we'd have to give up assets to give his contract away. We've long bought high and sold low here, and while you are correct - it would have to be the right deal to pull the trigger and we'd either need his replacement coming back, or have a bead on a replacement from somewhere else concurrently. However, given his playoff performance, he isn't CLOSE to being seen as an untouchable in my mind.

I view the goalie situation as our area of greatest risk currently, and so if I'm able to fix that, even if it means I pay more money for the new tandem, I think it's absolutely worth it. It would be folly to hope that Campbell/Skinner is suddenly so much better next year.


Lol, how jaded can a fan be?

Basically everything is "I'd like to see us take this chance to improve the team ... but I don't think this org is capable of pulling it off".

Optimism overload.

I heard multiple times with the radio on, guys like Staffer and 1260 guys hinting we might just ice basically the same team next year.

I missed a quote in the Vegas series that someone recently pointing out, where Marchessault flat out said that we are playing man on man defense in our end and they think they can create opportunities around our net because of it. How embarrassing, especially with the Nurse/Ceci pair chasing guys 30+ ft from the net and our forwards seeming to have no clue our D would do that, not covering for them properly. There is a major fix needed too in how we defend. We're pretty much the only playoff team that didn't know how to collapse to the net to stop chances and rebounds in close. Maybe I'm off base just bashing Ceci and some questionable defensive play and he was just following a crappy system that was exposed.

I do think Skinner was exposed as well. Poor use of his stick, his confidence being low seemed to really break his effort level for making 2nd/3rd efforts on saves (both of these issues are just death when you also have your skaters playing man on man, abandoning your net constantly). Those are things that can be fixed with a young goalie. But, again, have we created the proper environment for our goalies where their weaknesses can be effectively worked on and improved? I'm not feeling it with Schwartz.

So are you one who thinks Skinner can't improve just based on the experience he would have got during the regular season especially the playoffs?

Based on your comment, you are putting a tremendous amount of weight on the 12 playoffs games he played who everyone knows, wasn't great. But you seem to be basing you whole opinion on the future of Skinner and the organizations ability to help him improve on 12 games. Were they 12 big games? 100% yes but it was 12 games. That's a pretty small sample size. You also seem to be leaving out he's a rookie and every single year you will hear from all kinds of rookies how nervous they were, how the playoffs were different, how they thought they were prepared but they weren't, etc etc. So no stock gets put into the fact he was a rookie in his first ever playoff and because a rookie player, playing probably the hardest, most stressful position for a hockey team, didn't shoot the lights out in his first ever playoff, he's done. Man that's a big leap based on 12 games.

Out of curiosity. One of the other finalist for the Calder Beniers, put up 57 pts in 80 games for the Kraken. So .70 pts/game. In the playoffs, his first, he dropped to .5/pts. So I assume since he dropped in the playoffs as a rookie, that means he peaked in the regular season and will going forward due to his production in the playoffs. If we all know that Skinner will drop based on his playoffs moving forward, it should apply to other players I assume.

Goalie coach. He could very well not be good. When I hear people outside of the organization talk about him, they say he's good but I have no clue. If you look at Skinners numbers in the minors. Under the same goalie coaches organizationally. He starts at a level of minors. Plays. I assume they coach him and work on his weak spots, then every year he has jumped in his numbers. First year in Bako. 41 GP, 3.31, .892. Next year, 31 GP, 2.38, .914, next year, 35 GP, 2.21, .920. This year made the jump to the NHL 50 GP. 2.75, .914. So under the guidance of the goalie coaches, he's improved every year, then made the jump to the NHL and in the regular season was pretty solid. But that doesn't matter because the goalie coach is incapable of helping Skinner improve regardless of the previous evidence that says the otherwise.

I am not necessarily arguing with you because I don't have a crystal ball to know what happens this year. But a lot of big assumptions are being made about Skinner based on 12 games by a rookie in the pressure cooker of the playoffs.

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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824137 is a reply to message #824132 ]
Tue, 06 June 2023 13:56 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently offline Kr55
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RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 06 June 2023 13:06

Kr55 wrote on Tue, 06 June 2023 12:28

Adam wrote on Tue, 06 June 2023 12:09

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 06 June 2023 11:53

I think trading Skinner would be an absolutely terrible decision and reeks of a knee jerk, overreacting to 1 playoff.

#1 Who are you getting to replace him? First of all, if you are trading him, you have to know for certain he's incapable of doing the job. You have to know for certain that the numbers he put up in the regular season were a fluke and he can't do that again. He was 2.50 GA and .914 decent but not like he's up their with Ullmark. Skinners numbers are middle range. You have to know for certain the numbers he put up in the playoffs are what he is.

I don't see how anyone could know any of that. Like I said, his regular season numbers were decent but not eye popping. So if he's a decent NHL goalie, they should be repeatable. If he was rocking a 2 GA and .930, then yes, I would say he could be a 1 yr wonder like the guys listed above. Same with the playoffs. He was a rookie, it was his first year in the NHL, first playoff and especially first time playing in the playoffs in his home town. Rookies in their playoffs lots of times buckle a little under the pressure but most don't have playing for the hometown team on top of that and the extra pressure of being the goalie. So do I think maybe the spotlight got to the rookie a little. YUP! Not to mention he has a young baby and for a person is a parent, most know that first one that first year is a STEEP learning curve and impacts every single thing you do. So is there a pretty good chance with 1 yr under his belt both on ice and off the ice as well as at home, will he be better prepared for the playoffs? Most likely yes.

#2 If you are trading Skinner, then you have be certain the guy you are getting back is better than Skinner and who won't cost you more than 2.6 mill. They already have cost certainty for 3 yrs with Campbell and Skinner at 7.6 mill. I don't see how you get a better goalie for cheaper than 2.6 mill. The shiny toy this offseason will be Hill who is a UFA. I am sure he will be the hot commodity just like Driedger was a few years ago. If you look at Hill's numbers this past season, they are pretty similar to Skinners and his career is .910 that is with twice as much experience as Skinner. He's shot the lights out this playoffs. Good for him. So either Vegas or someone else is going to want to sign him and when he has a cup ring, his value is going to sky rocket. He was making 2.175 mill this year. He will get well north of that. So someone is going to be paying him a ton more money than what he makes right now based on a 15 or 16 game red hot streak. So buyer beware.


This is where Kr55's concerns about the Oilers are pretty valid.

If you had a team that had an ability to scout goalies or to develop them, then you'd have a much better opportunity to decide whether there is someone out there who is better.

For what it's worth, I don't care about keeping the cost under Skinner's - if there's someone for $6MM per year who can give us better more consistent goaltending and not wilt under the pressure of playoffs, then I would absolutely find a way - even if that means I flush both goaltenders this summer.

If I'm GM, the first question I'd have for the goalie coaches and scouts (if we had any I felt I could trust at all) is was the complete collapse of Skinner based on pressure and nerves, or was it based on the other teams exploiting a weakness in his game.

If it's the former, then I am moving on if I can find a better option. We already have one unmoveable basketcase of a goalie, we don't need two. The pressure is going to be even higher next year as everyone will know it's a critical playoff and possibly the last with both McDavid and Draisaitl on the team. If someone isn't mentally capable of carrying that load, then we need to find a replacement.

If instead it's something structural in his game that the other teams diagnosed and completely exploited for two straight playoff rounds, then I'm asking the follow-up question of whether it can be easily fixed. If it can, then great - work with him all summer and make sure that's patched solid. If it is more difficult, then he's the next Jim Carey, and he's going to get lit up a lot in the future as everyone figures him out and it's again time to sell high and part ways.

The thing to remember with Skinner is that after he wins his hardware this summer, his value will be at its peak. If he were to flame out again next year though, we'd have to give up assets to give his contract away. We've long bought high and sold low here, and while you are correct - it would have to be the right deal to pull the trigger and we'd either need his replacement coming back, or have a bead on a replacement from somewhere else concurrently. However, given his playoff performance, he isn't CLOSE to being seen as an untouchable in my mind.

I view the goalie situation as our area of greatest risk currently, and so if I'm able to fix that, even if it means I pay more money for the new tandem, I think it's absolutely worth it. It would be folly to hope that Campbell/Skinner is suddenly so much better next year.


Lol, how jaded can a fan be?

Basically everything is "I'd like to see us take this chance to improve the team ... but I don't think this org is capable of pulling it off".

Optimism overload.

I heard multiple times with the radio on, guys like Staffer and 1260 guys hinting we might just ice basically the same team next year.

I missed a quote in the Vegas series that someone recently pointing out, where Marchessault flat out said that we are playing man on man defense in our end and they think they can create opportunities around our net because of it. How embarrassing, especially with the Nurse/Ceci pair chasing guys 30+ ft from the net and our forwards seeming to have no clue our D would do that, not covering for them properly. There is a major fix needed too in how we defend. We're pretty much the only playoff team that didn't know how to collapse to the net to stop chances and rebounds in close. Maybe I'm off base just bashing Ceci and some questionable defensive play and he was just following a crappy system that was exposed.

I do think Skinner was exposed as well. Poor use of his stick, his confidence being low seemed to really break his effort level for making 2nd/3rd efforts on saves (both of these issues are just death when you also have your skaters playing man on man, abandoning your net constantly). Those are things that can be fixed with a young goalie. But, again, have we created the proper environment for our goalies where their weaknesses can be effectively worked on and improved? I'm not feeling it with Schwartz.

So are you one who thinks Skinner can't improve just based on the experience he would have got during the regular season especially the playoffs?

Based on your comment, you are putting a tremendous amount of weight on the 12 playoffs games he played who everyone knows, wasn't great. But you seem to be basing you whole opinion on the future of Skinner and the organizations ability to help him improve on 12 games. Were they 12 big games? 100% yes but it was 12 games. That's a pretty small sample size. You also seem to be leaving out he's a rookie and every single year you will hear from all kinds of rookies how nervous they were, how the playoffs were different, how they thought they were prepared but they weren't, etc etc. So no stock gets put into the fact he was a rookie in his first ever playoff and because a rookie player, playing probably the hardest, most stressful position for a hockey team, didn't shoot the lights out in his first ever playoff, he's done. Man that's a big leap based on 12 games.

Out of curiosity. One of the other finalist for the Calder Beniers, put up 57 pts in 80 games for the Kraken. So .70 pts/game. In the playoffs, his first, he dropped to .5/pts. So I assume since he dropped in the playoffs as a rookie, that means he peaked in the regular season and will going forward due to his production in the playoffs. If we all know that Skinner will drop based on his playoffs moving forward, it should apply to other players I assume.

Goalie coach. He could very well not be good. When I hear people outside of the organization talk about him, they say he's good but I have no clue. If you look at Skinners numbers in the minors. Under the same goalie coaches organizationally. He starts at a level of minors. Plays. I assume they coach him and work on his weak spots, then every year he has jumped in his numbers. First year in Bako. 41 GP, 3.31, .892. Next year, 31 GP, 2.38, .914, next year, 35 GP, 2.21, .920. This year made the jump to the NHL 50 GP. 2.75, .914. So under the guidance of the goalie coaches, he's improved every year, then made the jump to the NHL and in the regular season was pretty solid. But that doesn't matter because the goalie coach is incapable of helping Skinner improve regardless of the previous evidence that says the otherwise.

I am not necessarily arguing with you because I don't have a crystal ball to know what happens this year. But a lot of big assumptions are being made about Skinner based on 12 games by a rookie in the pressure cooker of the playoffs.


I definitely do not want to project Skinners entire career off 12 games. That wouldn't be fair. I still do think that some holes in his game got exposed. Habits being exposed is what playoffs are all about when you play the same team over and over and everyone is looking for an edge, so it's not that surprising to see a rookie goalie get caught, and you can hope that he knows he did is a quick road to improving.

I'm not sure how to judge goalie coaches personally. I'm sure he's a great guy, and how removed a coach is from actual results and how unpredictable goaltending makes the concept of being a "good" goalie coach mostly about relationships, getting along with the goalies, the team, everyone around the org. I am just looking at results, and I see almost every goalie on the NHL club have a slow regression. Many possible reasons for that, first of which can simply be that the goalie is not that good. What can you do as a goalie coach if your guys are just not able to play at a high level? I can feel for him in that case. But, the repeated regression over and over with different guys really gets to me. As an observer through the 4 GM's and 6 coaches or whatever Schwartz has survived, I could not suggest he is getting good results for us based on how our goalies perform on the NHL club. Maybe we have a big reversal coming next year with Campbell and Skinner though, and it shuts people up about Schwartz for a while. I would not bet a dime on it though.

Skinner did improve away from our team in the minors. How involved was Schwartz? He was great the first half of our season and started to tail off a lot as the season went on. Campbell had to jump in a bit to try to save the day and we had to flip back and forth a bit. Unfortunately Skinner played the worst hockey of his short NHL career to finish off our playoffs. I think I would still file Skinners year with the big club as another slow regression on Schwartz's record.

For the Avs. Could it also be that they are good at identifying good goalies that have been underutilized? They certainly have a good team, but they also manage to get guys that can still steal some wins when their team is off. It's no secret that the Avs went heavy into analytics under Sakic. They seem to have a lot of confidence in finding good goalies that suit their team.

[Updated on: Tue, 06 June 2023 13:59]

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824130 is a reply to message #824127 ]
Tue, 06 June 2023 12:29 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Adam wrote on Tue, 06 June 2023 12:09

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 06 June 2023 11:53

I think trading Skinner would be an absolutely terrible decision and reeks of a knee jerk, overreacting to 1 playoff.

#1 Who are you getting to replace him? First of all, if you are trading him, you have to know for certain he's incapable of doing the job. You have to know for certain that the numbers he put up in the regular season were a fluke and he can't do that again. He was 2.50 GA and .914 decent but not like he's up their with Ullmark. Skinners numbers are middle range. You have to know for certain the numbers he put up in the playoffs are what he is.

I don't see how anyone could know any of that. Like I said, his regular season numbers were decent but not eye popping. So if he's a decent NHL goalie, they should be repeatable. If he was rocking a 2 GA and .930, then yes, I would say he could be a 1 yr wonder like the guys listed above. Same with the playoffs. He was a rookie, it was his first year in the NHL, first playoff and especially first time playing in the playoffs in his home town. Rookies in their playoffs lots of times buckle a little under the pressure but most don't have playing for the hometown team on top of that and the extra pressure of being the goalie. So do I think maybe the spotlight got to the rookie a little. YUP! Not to mention he has a young baby and for a person is a parent, most know that first one that first year is a STEEP learning curve and impacts every single thing you do. So is there a pretty good chance with 1 yr under his belt both on ice and off the ice as well as at home, will he be better prepared for the playoffs? Most likely yes.

#2 If you are trading Skinner, then you have be certain the guy you are getting back is better than Skinner and who won't cost you more than 2.6 mill. They already have cost certainty for 3 yrs with Campbell and Skinner at 7.6 mill. I don't see how you get a better goalie for cheaper than 2.6 mill. The shiny toy this offseason will be Hill who is a UFA. I am sure he will be the hot commodity just like Driedger was a few years ago. If you look at Hill's numbers this past season, they are pretty similar to Skinners and his career is .910 that is with twice as much experience as Skinner. He's shot the lights out this playoffs. Good for him. So either Vegas or someone else is going to want to sign him and when he has a cup ring, his value is going to sky rocket. He was making 2.175 mill this year. He will get well north of that. So someone is going to be paying him a ton more money than what he makes right now based on a 15 or 16 game red hot streak. So buyer beware.


This is where Kr55's concerns about the Oilers are pretty valid.

If you had a team that had an ability to scout goalies or to develop them, then you'd have a much better opportunity to decide whether there is someone out there who is better.

For what it's worth, I don't care about keeping the cost under Skinner's - if there's someone for $6MM per year who can give us better more consistent goaltending and not wilt under the pressure of playoffs, then I would absolutely find a way - even if that means I flush both goaltenders this summer.

If I'm GM, the first question I'd have for the goalie coaches and scouts (if we had any I felt I could trust at all) is was the complete collapse of Skinner based on pressure and nerves, or was it based on the other teams exploiting a weakness in his game.

If it's the former, then I am moving on if I can find a better option. We already have one unmoveable basketcase of a goalie, we don't need two. The pressure is going to be even higher next year as everyone will know it's a critical playoff and possibly the last with both McDavid and Draisaitl on the team. If someone isn't mentally capable of carrying that load, then we need to find a replacement.

If instead it's something structural in his game that the other teams diagnosed and completely exploited for two straight playoff rounds, then I'm asking the follow-up question of whether it can be easily fixed. If it can, then great - work with him all summer and make sure that's patched solid. If it is more difficult, then he's the next Jim Carey, and he's going to get lit up a lot in the future as everyone figures him out and it's again time to sell high and part ways.

The thing to remember with Skinner is that after he wins his hardware this summer, his value will be at its peak. If he were to flame out again next year though, we'd have to give up assets to give his contract away. We've long bought high and sold low here, and while you are correct - it would have to be the right deal to pull the trigger and we'd either need his replacement coming back, or have a bead on a replacement from somewhere else concurrently. However, given his playoff performance, he isn't CLOSE to being seen as an untouchable in my mind.

I view the goalie situation as our area of greatest risk currently, and so if I'm able to fix that, even if it means I pay more money for the new tandem, I think it's absolutely worth it. It would be folly to hope that Campbell/Skinner is suddenly so much better next year.

I won't bother arguing with you Adam.

If you are a person who has the mindset that the Oilers management is completely incompetent as you have reference twice in this thread and countless other times, regardless of their record for the last several years, there will be no convincing you that any counter argument has any validity.

If you are a person who thinks Skinner is a 1 hit wonder and will never be capable of improving from this years playoff, I have no way to prove he won't. Is there a chance Skinner is not able to put up average NHL goaltending numbers like he did this year? There is a chance. I don't think he will, his career numbers as he continued to developed showed he got better each year. But could this be the peak of Skinner and it's only down after this? Maybe. So if you are of that mindset now, there will be no convincing you the other way because it's impossible to prove.

Changing the topic slightly to Campbell. If you are a person who ignores his career numbers completely and just focuses on this past season and have decided that's who Campbell from now until he retires, there is no way to prove you are wrong. Could he be done as an NHL goalie? Maybe. I think that is unlikely but it could be the case. Only way to find out is to see what happens.

So you could be right, they Oilers are screwed. Their goaltending will be worse than last year if they choose to keep those 2.

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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824136 is a reply to message #824130 ]
Tue, 06 June 2023 13:53 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Goose is currently offline Goose
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RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 06 June 2023 11:29


If you are a person who has the mindset that the Oilers management is completely incompetent as you have reference twice in this thread and countless other times, regardless of their record for the last several years, there will be no convincing you that any counter argument has any validity.



I mean, their record has been better the last couple of years, but McDavid/Drai outscored the 2nd highest duo in the league by 65 points last year. That's like adding a top line winger for free.

The fact that the best the team could muster was tied for 6th is a pretty bad indictment on management for not surrounding them with a better group. And McDavid and Draisaitl are even on team friendly deals! Their combined cap hit is less than that of McKinnon/Rantanen.

Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824146 is a reply to message #824136 ]
Tue, 06 June 2023 17:30 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently online Adam
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Goose wrote on Tue, 06 June 2023 13:53

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 06 June 2023 11:29


If you are a person who has the mindset that the Oilers management is completely incompetent as you have reference twice in this thread and countless other times, regardless of their record for the last several years, there will be no convincing you that any counter argument has any validity.



I mean, their record has been better the last couple of years, but McDavid/Drai outscored the 2nd highest duo in the league by 65 points last year. That's like adding a top line winger for free.

The fact that the best the team could muster was tied for 6th is a pretty bad indictment on management for not surrounding them with a better group. And McDavid and Draisaitl are even on team friendly deals! Their combined cap hit is less than that of McKinnon/Rantanen.


We've had both those guys here full-time since 2015. The Golden Knights have been in the league since 2017. McDavid's appeared in 49 playoff games. The Knights have WON 52 post-season games. They're in their 2nd Finals, compared to the Oilers ZERO in the McDavid era. They have been in the semi-finals four times, compared to just once for the Oilers. They've missed the playoffs once, compared to three misses for the Oilers.

This is a team that was built originally off castoffs from the other 29 teams. They haven't had any first round picks play a major role in their success. They drafted early just once, in their first year (picking Cody Glass).

All those stories that the Edmonton media has force-fed us about how you need to be bad to be good, you need to tear down and build through the draft, etc. It doesn't actually matter - it's about competent management and understanding what's actually required to build a winning team.

If the Oilers had the management team that has led the Knights (not just the GM too - but the head office), then we're likely Cup Champions in the McDavid era already, and possibly with multiple Cups. If Holland and company ran the Knights? I doubt they'd be anything close to where they are now.

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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824138 is a reply to message #824130 ]
Tue, 06 June 2023 13:59 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Dragon_Matt is currently online Dragon_Matt
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To be fair, oilers management rarely does anything to contrast the thought that they are, in fact, all incompetent and have not shown that we should trust their judgement on most things... Only for the past 17 years. 2006 was good though.

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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824144 is a reply to message #824130 ]
Tue, 06 June 2023 16:38 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently online Adam
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RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 06 June 2023 12:29


If you are a person who has the mindset that the Oilers management is completely incompetent as you have reference twice in this thread and countless other times, regardless of their record for the last several years, there will be no convincing you that any counter argument has any validity.



I think you're missing the point. The reason that I (and many many others) have little faith in Oilers management is BECAUSE of the over-whelming evidence that they've given us over the last several years. They've made mistake after mistake after mistake.

And Ken Holland's goalie tandems since he's been here have been:

2019-20 - Smith/Koskinen
2020-21 - Smith/Koskinen
2021-22 - Smith/Koskinen
2022-23 - Campbell/Skinner

This is the same guy who blew multiple years of a great Detroit team relying on Chris Osgood - who while he did win Cups, never won his team a Cup and probably cost them chances at a couple more. He took one of his best teams he ever had and let them rely on Manny Legace, who the Oilers reduced to a mere shell of himself in 6 games. He watched that playoffs happen and decided that the back-up the Red Wings really needed as the second half of his tandem behind a now aged Osgood was Ty freakin' Conklin. This is the same guy who tried to sign a retiring Jimmy Howard a couple seasons back when Mike Smith got hurt.

Holland, despite playing the position, has never shown a great eye for goaltending. Other than picking up Hasek in 2002, which was a no brainer, he's pretty much consistently opted for mediocre netminding, and always seems genuinely puzzled by the fact it doesn't work out.

Honestly, it's great that you can still be blindly optimistic and think, hey, this guy led the 2002 Detroit Red Wings to victory, so how can anyone doubt him and his record. It's fantastic that you can look at the Kostin trade, and think it proves that he's a master wheeler-and-dealer. It's nice that you can find the silver lining in the Jack Campbell signing and believe that if he can just bounce back then maybe we're all one day thankful that we signed him long term at big bucks.

But you can't expect everyone to just play Pollyanna, and I think it's unreasonable to be always so upset about people pointing out that this management team makes way more than their share of critical mistakes and that trusting them to do the right thing is extremely optimistic and probably undeserved support.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824158 is a reply to message #824144 ]
Wed, 07 June 2023 08:31 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Adam wrote on Tue, 06 June 2023 16:38

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 06 June 2023 12:29


If you are a person who has the mindset that the Oilers management is completely incompetent as you have reference twice in this thread and countless other times, regardless of their record for the last several years, there will be no convincing you that any counter argument has any validity.



I think you're missing the point. The reason that I (and many many others) have little faith in Oilers management is BECAUSE of the over-whelming evidence that they've given us over the last several years. They've made mistake after mistake after mistake.

And Ken Holland's goalie tandems since he's been here have been:

2019-20 - Smith/Koskinen
2020-21 - Smith/Koskinen
2021-22 - Smith/Koskinen
2022-23 - Campbell/Skinner

This is the same guy who blew multiple years of a great Detroit team relying on Chris Osgood - who while he did win Cups, never won his team a Cup and probably cost them chances at a couple more. He took one of his best teams he ever had and let them rely on Manny Legace, who the Oilers reduced to a mere shell of himself in 6 games. He watched that playoffs happen and decided that the back-up the Red Wings really needed as the second half of his tandem behind a now aged Osgood was Ty freakin' Conklin. This is the same guy who tried to sign a retiring Jimmy Howard a couple seasons back when Mike Smith got hurt.

Holland, despite playing the position, has never shown a great eye for goaltending. Other than picking up Hasek in 2002, which was a no brainer, he's pretty much consistently opted for mediocre netminding, and always seems genuinely puzzled by the fact it doesn't work out.

Honestly, it's great that you can still be blindly optimistic and think, hey, this guy led the 2002 Detroit Red Wings to victory, so how can anyone doubt him and his record. It's fantastic that you can look at the Kostin trade, and think it proves that he's a master wheeler-and-dealer. It's nice that you can find the silver lining in the Jack Campbell signing and believe that if he can just bounce back then maybe we're all one day thankful that we signed him long term at big bucks.

But you can't expect everyone to just play Pollyanna, and I think it's unreasonable to be always so upset about people pointing out that this management team makes way more than their share of critical mistakes and that trusting them to do the right thing is extremely optimistic and probably undeserved support.

You are trolling me right? This isn't you giving me a legit post. You are just sending me this to goat me into another argument. You can't be freaking serious, there is just no way this is real.

You are seriously complaining about Chris Osgood not being good enough? The guy has 3 cups, 2 as a starter. You are telling me he wasn't a factor in them winning 2 cups when he was a starter.

I don't care if I take heat, this is up there with one of the stupidest arguments I have EVER seen a person use in debating me. A guy who was the starter and was in the net when his team won the cup twice wasn't very good for them. OK man, whatever you say.

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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824162 is a reply to message #824158 ]
Wed, 07 June 2023 09:12 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Mike is currently offline Mike
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RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 11:31

I don't care if I take heat, this is up there with one of the stupidest arguments I have EVER seen a person use in debating me. A guy who was the starter and was in the net when his team won the cup twice wasn't very good for them. OK man, whatever you say.


You realize what Adam said is nothing new right? Even Osgood's mom I'm sure knows the Wings didn't win because of him. I think it was maybe a little exaggerated at times people saying how bad he was (Chris Osbad), but pretty much everyone agreed he was not spectacular, He was OK and played behind a great team with one of the best Dmen to ever play the game. He didn't steal many (any?) games, but he didn't let in too many stinkers. He made the first stop most of the time, and his D cleaned up the scraps.

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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824164 is a reply to message #824162 ]
Wed, 07 June 2023 09:25 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Mike wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 09:12

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 11:31

I don't care if I take heat, this is up there with one of the stupidest arguments I have EVER seen a person use in debating me. A guy who was the starter and was in the net when his team won the cup twice wasn't very good for them. OK man, whatever you say.


You realize what Adam said is nothing new right? Even Osgood's mom I'm sure knows the Wings didn't win because of him. I think it was maybe a little exaggerated at times people saying how bad he was (Chris Osbad), but pretty much everyone agreed he was not spectacular, He was OK and played behind a great team with one of the best Dmen to ever play the game. He didn't steal many (any?) games, but he didn't let in too many stinkers. He made the first stop most of the time, and his D cleaned up the scraps.

I always preferred Osnotsogood. He wasn't bad just … wasn't good. I actually thought (the memory is obviously fuzzy from 15-25 years ago) that he became a pretty steady game manager type goalie at the end of his career but had the same level of chaos in his game Campbell for the rest of it.

Sad fact: a kid born during Osgood's first season will turn 30 this winter.

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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824223 is a reply to message #824123 ]
Mon, 12 June 2023 15:55 Go to previous messageGo to next message
inverno76 is currently offline inverno76
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RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 06 June 2023 09:53

Campbell I think will 100% be a lot better. This isn't me going fan boy on him, this is looking at his career numbers. His numbers dropped a bit thanks to this season so he is now a career .910. He was at .888 this year. It's extremely likely he will bounce back to closer to his career numbers otherwise he's no longer an NHL goalie.


I have not posted much lately because I am still in my post mortem stage, and I am not trying to attack you, but what leads you to believe that Campbell can bounce back? He has never sustained any decent numbers over a full season except for his last season with the Leafs. 49 games and a pedestrian .914 Save percentage.

His other 9 seasons total 122 games played and a .908 save percentage. Sure you get rid of this year and he has played 135 games and has a career .916 save percentage. Solid SA, but that averages out to 17 games a year and he seems to crumble under the workload of a starter. I am not sure if it's mental or physical, but he is not instilling much confidence in many people for a rebound season.

For the record. I want to be wrong, but some money needs to be spent on a veteran back-up who can play in the AHL knowing full well he will likely get a shot at an NHL job this upcoming season. As for Skinner ... I think he will rebound and improve. He was not ready, but showed a lot of promise this past season.

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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824148 is a reply to message #824110 ]
Tue, 06 June 2023 19:13 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Skookum Jim is currently offline Skookum Jim
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Seravalli today on ON saying that he believes there is a legit chance that the cap could go up by another $3M to $4M this summer.. believes there are talks between NHLPA and NHL about adjusting escrow to allow bringing some the expected cap increase for the 24/25 season (based on next year's expected revenues) that is projected to result in a cap increase near $9M .. so instead of only a $1M cap increase next season.. they'd bring some of that expected cap increase forward to the 23/24 season, roughly a $3M - $4M cap increase .. then the 24/25 cap increase will be lowered by the same amount to about $5M - $6M.. evens out the yearly cap between 2023/24 and 2024/25.. and helps make the task of cap/roster management less complicated for owners.. not sure of details, but there would be some escrow implications that would need to negotiated and agreed to by the NHLPA ..

If true.. this could impact the Oilers projected roster significantly.. wait and see, but Seravalli seemed pretty confident it could happen.

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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824149 is a reply to message #824148 ]
Tue, 06 June 2023 19:32 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Mike is currently offline Mike
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Rumours we traded for Carter Hart? This is one link, but there are many out there. Anyone hear anything about this?

https://www.flyersinsider.com/If-The-Flyers-Trade-Carter-Har t-Are-The-Edmonton-Oilers-Front-Runners-243678

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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824150 is a reply to message #824149 ]
Tue, 06 June 2023 21:50 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Skookum Jim is currently offline Skookum Jim
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Mike wrote on Tue, 06 June 2023 18:32

Rumours we traded for Carter Hart? This is one link, but there are many out there. Anyone hear anything about this?

https://www.flyersinsider.com/If-The-Flyers-Trade-Carter-Har t-Are-The-Edmonton-Oilers-Front-Runners-243678


Seravalli saying a Carter Hart trade is all rumour right now, Stauffer commented he didn't know anything about it related to Oilers.. fwiw..

Oilers have $6M in cap right now..

But have the following without contracts;

Bouchard
McLeod
Bjugstad
Janmark
Ryan
Shore


Move Yamo.. thats a + $3.1M in cap (unless he's bought out and its less)
If Seravalli is right and the cap moves up another + $3M .. Oilers would have roughly $12M to use .. a lot more roster possibilities.

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Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824152 is a reply to message #824149 ]
Tue, 06 June 2023 23:23 Go to previous messageGo to next message
NetBOG is currently offline NetBOG
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Mike wrote on Tue, 06 June 2023 19:32

Rumours we traded for Carter Hart? This is one link, but there are many out there. Anyone hear anything about this?

https://www.flyersinsider.com/If-The-Flyers-Trade-Carter-Har t-Are-The-Edmonton-Oilers-Front-Runners-243678


Ugh, 2 future 1sts for a goalie coming off a bounce back after two bad years? This team has already cleaned all the elite prospects out, and doesn't have last or this years 1st round pick. At some point even the 'sell everything to win now' people have to get some common sense.

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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824153 is a reply to message #824152 ]
Tue, 06 June 2023 23:41 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Skookum Jim is currently offline Skookum Jim
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NetBOG wrote on Tue, 06 June 2023 22:23

Mike wrote on Tue, 06 June 2023 19:32

Rumours we traded for Carter Hart? This is one link, but there are many out there. Anyone hear anything about this?

https://www.flyersinsider.com/If-The-Flyers-Trade-Carter-Har t-Are-The-Edmonton-Oilers-Front-Runners-243678


Ugh, 2 future 1sts for a goalie coming off a bounce back after two bad years? This team has already cleaned all the elite prospects out, and doesn't have last or this years 1st round pick. At some point even the 'sell everything to win now' people have to get some common sense.



Selling the farm for a goalie just smells like back-fire.. IMHO goalie position is so flaky/voodoo.. high risk.. if you could guarantee he'd play elite .. maybe.. but too many past examples of inconsistent goalie performances year to year..

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P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824156 is a reply to message #824153 ]
Wed, 07 June 2023 07:11 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Mike is currently offline Mike
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Skookum Jim wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 02:41

NetBOG wrote on Tue, 06 June 2023 22:23

Mike wrote on Tue, 06 June 2023 19:32

Rumours we traded for Carter Hart? This is one link, but there are many out there. Anyone hear anything about this?

https://www.flyersinsider.com/If-The-Flyers-Trade-Carter-Har t-Are-The-Edmonton-Oilers-Front-Runners-243678


Ugh, 2 future 1sts for a goalie coming off a bounce back after two bad years? This team has already cleaned all the elite prospects out, and doesn't have last or this years 1st round pick. At some point even the 'sell everything to win now' people have to get some common sense.



Selling the farm for a goalie just smells like back-fire.. IMHO goalie position is so flaky/voodoo.. high risk.. if you could guarantee he'd play elite .. maybe.. but too many past examples of inconsistent goalie performances year to year..


Several Flyer fan friends were convinced Hart was the next Hasek after his first 2 seasons. He looked fine those first 2 seasons, but there's not much about his last 2 years that would make me want to give up anything of substance for him. Hart had better numbers than Campbell this year, but the 2 years prior (20-21 and 21-22), Campbell had much better numbers than Hart:

22-23: Hart .907%, 2.94GAA; Campbell .888%, 3.41GAA
21-22: Hart .905%, 3.16GAA; Campbell .914%, 2.64GAA
20-21: Hart .877%, 3.67GAA; Campbell .921%, 2.15GAA

Interesting to note while looking at stats that Jack Campbell had the best save % in this year's playoffs at .961, and best GAA with 1.01. Woodcroft really should have started him for game 6 after Skinner was pulled in games 3 and 5. Oh well.

Anyway - as for trading for Hart. If it was just to get out from under Campbell's contract, sure, maybe. But I think/hope Campbell will be better this year, and again, after those first 2 years, Hart has been pretty pedestrian. Though some of that could be the crap team in front of him and at 24 the potential is still there for him to become an elite starter, I would not be prepared to hitch my wagon to him, especially not at the expected acquisition cost.

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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824157 is a reply to message #824156 ]
Wed, 07 June 2023 08:18 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently offline RDOilerfan
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No one will convince me otherwise that the people in here or in social media who are advocating to trade Skinner because of 12 games in the playoffs or advocating to get rid of Campbell because of 1 bad season when if you look at his career, he's normally .914 or better, to me is a complete borderline irrational overreaction.

If Campbell doesn't improve then he is no longer an NHL goalie. I find that pretty hard to believe that he can go from being a fairly solid NHL goalie to being done in 1 yr at 31. I also find it even harder to believe that Skinner can go from a looking to be very good young starting goalie to crap in a few weeks of playoff games.

It is what it is in here I guess.

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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824159 is a reply to message #824157 ]
Wed, 07 June 2023 08:44 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently offline Kr55
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RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 08:18

No one will convince me otherwise that the people in here or in social media who are advocating to trade Skinner because of 12 games in the playoffs or advocating to get rid of Campbell because of 1 bad season when if you look at his career, he's normally .914 or better, to me is a complete borderline irrational overreaction.

If Campbell doesn't improve then he is no longer an NHL goalie. I find that pretty hard to believe that he can go from being a fairly solid NHL goalie to being done in 1 yr at 31. I also find it even harder to believe that Skinner can go from a looking to be very good young starting goalie to crap in a few weeks of playoff games.

It is what it is in here I guess.


Do you totally discount recent performance when you're trying to create the best team in the NHL the next season? We aren't just some average team that you just hope things work out every year. We have the best player in the NHL and possibly the 2nd best and we continue to misplay our hand. Plus we're on the cusp of those 2 guys having to make their decision to stick around. We need to be dang sure we have our important positions solid next season. It's a huge risk to just hope goaltending will work out, especially with our untouchable regression master coaching our goalies.

These Carter Hart rumors are frightening honestly. A quadruple down on Schwartz by getting his most popular student. God...

[Updated on: Wed, 07 June 2023 08:46]

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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824161 is a reply to message #824159 ]
Wed, 07 June 2023 09:07 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi is currently offline CrusaderPi
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Kr55 wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 08:44



These Carter Hart rumors are frightening honestly. A quadruple down on Schwartz by getting his most popular student. God...

I'd see a Carter Hart trade as a capitulation. It's so absurd to think a real life NHL GM would consider that to be a viable solution for a team pretending like it's a cup contender I'm completely dismissing it.

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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824165 is a reply to message #824161 ]
Wed, 07 June 2023 09:31 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently online Adam
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CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 09:07

Kr55 wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 08:44



These Carter Hart rumors are frightening honestly. A quadruple down on Schwartz by getting his most popular student. God...

I'd see a Carter Hart trade as a capitulation. It's so absurd to think a real life NHL GM would consider that to be a viable solution for a team pretending like it's a cup contender I'm completely dismissing it.


If we were to get Carter Hart, how long do you think it is before it comes out that he was a big part of the Team Canada scandal? Hart was among the very last to put out a statement, and it wasn't as clear a denial as many others. Rather than him putting out a statement, his agent put out one saying he and a couple other clients of that agent weren't "involved in any criminal wrongdoing." Team Canada is still struggling to regain its sponsors after that, so when the players finally get named - and too many people will know who they are for it to stay quiet forever - there's going to be a lot of pressure to see those players punished significantly.

More recently, Team Canada has said that no members of that team can play for Canada internationally until further notice, which is more pressure for someone to make clear who it is. I imagine it's exceptionally frustrating for someone like Makar who was not at the gala in London, that he's tarred with this brush over the actions of others. With the statements, which I believe started with Makar, the players not involved already have shown a lack of patience being smeared with this, so at some point someone puts the names out on Reddit for sure.

Here's a story from last year on the Flyers, Hart and the sexual assault story:

https://phillyhockeynow.com/2022/07/21/philadelphia-flyers-m um-carter-hart-and-sex-scandal-goalie-attorney-chuck-fletche r-nhl-hockey-canada-2018/

If I was a betting man, I'd wager he is involved from that article. That's a pretty risky player to acquire.

He hasn't lived up to his pre-draft hype yet either...so on the hockey front there's some questions, although I'll grant that he's pretty much only played behind bad Flyers teams so he could be better than his numbers show.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824178 is a reply to message #824159 ]
Wed, 07 June 2023 13:21 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Kr55 wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 08:44

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 08:18

No one will convince me otherwise that the people in here or in social media who are advocating to trade Skinner because of 12 games in the playoffs or advocating to get rid of Campbell because of 1 bad season when if you look at his career, he's normally .914 or better, to me is a complete borderline irrational overreaction.

If Campbell doesn't improve then he is no longer an NHL goalie. I find that pretty hard to believe that he can go from being a fairly solid NHL goalie to being done in 1 yr at 31. I also find it even harder to believe that Skinner can go from a looking to be very good young starting goalie to crap in a few weeks of playoff games.

It is what it is in here I guess.


Do you totally discount recent performance when you're trying to create the best team in the NHL the next season? We aren't just some average team that you just hope things work out every year. We have the best player in the NHL and possibly the 2nd best and we continue to misplay our hand. Plus we're on the cusp of those 2 guys having to make their decision to stick around. We need to be dang sure we have our important positions solid next season. It's a huge risk to just hope goaltending will work out, especially with our untouchable regression master coaching our goalies.

These Carter Hart rumors are frightening honestly. A quadruple down on Schwartz by getting his most popular student. God...

I look at the whole season of work of a player, not 12 games.

In 21-22 - Skinner played in 13 games, started 12. He was 6-6 2.62GA, .913% 1 shut out. No one would accuse that Oilers team of being defensive specialists. So not eye popping but pretty decent numbers.

In 22-23 - Skinner played in 50 games, started 48. He was 29-14-5 2.75GA, .914% 1 shut out. Again, no one would accuse the Oilers team of being defensive specialists. Again, not eye popping but pretty decent numbers. He got voted to the all star team and is up for the calder.

The playoffs, he wasn't near as good. But I look at the body of work and for the huge majority of it, he was pretty good. He has 60 regular season starts and for the most part, they are pretty good. The 12 playoffs starts, not so good. Now I have listed many times the pressures of the playoffs can impact even vet guys. In my opinion, that pressure is more on a rookie, then it is even more when you are playing in your home town. Then I think it's even more if you are a rookie goalie, playing in your home town in a hockey insane market. So in my opinion, I think the pressure got to the rookie but he isn't the first rookie not to play well in their first playoffs and he won't be the last.

So then I look at the body of work and I personally see the makings of a good goalie who had a tough 12 games at the worst time. I think the pressures of the playoffs got to him but he will be better for it next season. In all the times he spoke, he seems to be a guy who will take whatever bad happened and use it as fuel to be better. So I think he will be better next year. But, if he isn't better, if he just stays as he is, I still see a solid NHL goalie have can play over 40 starts and give you a chance to win who's signed to a reasonable deal for the next 3 seasons.

So the Oilers could trade Skinner, bring in someone else and maybe that guy is better but he could just as easily not be any better and maybe way worse than what they had, just like Campbell was last year.



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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824179 is a reply to message #824178 ]
Wed, 07 June 2023 13:54 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently offline Kr55
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RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 13:21

Kr55 wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 08:44

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 08:18

No one will convince me otherwise that the people in here or in social media who are advocating to trade Skinner because of 12 games in the playoffs or advocating to get rid of Campbell because of 1 bad season when if you look at his career, he's normally .914 or better, to me is a complete borderline irrational overreaction.

If Campbell doesn't improve then he is no longer an NHL goalie. I find that pretty hard to believe that he can go from being a fairly solid NHL goalie to being done in 1 yr at 31. I also find it even harder to believe that Skinner can go from a looking to be very good young starting goalie to crap in a few weeks of playoff games.

It is what it is in here I guess.


Do you totally discount recent performance when you're trying to create the best team in the NHL the next season? We aren't just some average team that you just hope things work out every year. We have the best player in the NHL and possibly the 2nd best and we continue to misplay our hand. Plus we're on the cusp of those 2 guys having to make their decision to stick around. We need to be dang sure we have our important positions solid next season. It's a huge risk to just hope goaltending will work out, especially with our untouchable regression master coaching our goalies.

These Carter Hart rumors are frightening honestly. A quadruple down on Schwartz by getting his most popular student. God...

I look at the whole season of work of a player, not 12 games.

In 21-22 - Skinner played in 13 games, started 12. He was 6-6 2.62GA, .913% 1 shut out. No one would accuse that Oilers team of being defensive specialists. So not eye popping but pretty decent numbers.

In 22-23 - Skinner played in 50 games, started 48. He was 29-14-5 2.75GA, .914% 1 shut out. Again, no one would accuse the Oilers team of being defensive specialists. Again, not eye popping but pretty decent numbers. He got voted to the all star team and is up for the calder.

The playoffs, he wasn't near as good. But I look at the body of work and for the huge majority of it, he was pretty good. He has 60 regular season starts and for the most part, they are pretty good. The 12 playoffs starts, not so good. Now I have listed many times the pressures of the playoffs can impact even vet guys. In my opinion, that pressure is more on a rookie, then it is even more when you are playing in your home town. Then I think it's even more if you are a rookie goalie, playing in your home town in a hockey insane market. So in my opinion, I think the pressure got to the rookie but he isn't the first rookie not to play well in their first playoffs and he won't be the last.

So then I look at the body of work and I personally see the makings of a good goalie who had a tough 12 games at the worst time. I think the pressures of the playoffs got to him but he will be better for it next season. In all the times he spoke, he seems to be a guy who will take whatever bad happened and use it as fuel to be better. So I think he will be better next year. But, if he isn't better, if he just stays as he is, I still see a solid NHL goalie have can play over 40 starts and give you a chance to win who's signed to a reasonable deal for the next 3 seasons.

So the Oilers could trade Skinner, bring in someone else and maybe that guy is better but he could just as easily not be any better and maybe way worse than what they had, just like Campbell was last year.




I would say first off, the body of work is small no matter how we try to dig in. Think these playoffs highlight again to everyone how unpredictable and how helpful or damaging goaltending can be.

Can we break out Skinner's year into 3 parts?

2022 - 0.917 sav%, 2.78 GAA, 0.856 high danger sav%

Those are great stats, great start to his season. He pretty much saved us when Campbell went right down the toilet with his glove with a hole in it and butter pads that he had to completely switch all of.

2023 regular season - 0.910 sav%, 2.72 GAA, 0.808 high danger sav%

His individual contribution to wins started to tail off. We finally started to score for him, so it didn't matter as much. He did have some rough periods and needed Campbell to step in to give him a break.

And of course playoffs - 0.883 sav%, 3.68 GAA, 0.755 high danger sav%

I mentioned before, I think he got exposed for his poor stick work. Lots of goals by guys just staking out right in front of him, or pucks passed across right in front and he's keeping his stick tight up against his pads not even considering to use it to break up the play. His second efforts on saves vanished along with his confidence. Our D, especially one pair, were extra braindead about covering the net which helped give a little negative boost to his numbers.


We saw the good for a few months. The average for a few months, and just a chaotic mess for a month.

Now do we focus just on the good? Assume it comes back and he can sustain it? It's certainly possible, but I think you're taking a risk if you are going to count on it happening. Many goalies in history have had a season like Skinners and just cratered the next year.

I guess in the end all I'm saying is that you can't be certain at all about what you're getting from Skinner next season. He ended up at every extreme this year, he is very early in his career with a tiny NHL sample size. You better have some smart people in your org making the best possible educated guesses on how his career is going to go now, and I don't think we have anything like that.

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824181 is a reply to message #824179 ]
Wed, 07 June 2023 14:35 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Kr55 wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 13:54

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 13:21

Kr55 wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 08:44

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 08:18

No one will convince me otherwise that the people in here or in social media who are advocating to trade Skinner because of 12 games in the playoffs or advocating to get rid of Campbell because of 1 bad season when if you look at his career, he's normally .914 or better, to me is a complete borderline irrational overreaction.

If Campbell doesn't improve then he is no longer an NHL goalie. I find that pretty hard to believe that he can go from being a fairly solid NHL goalie to being done in 1 yr at 31. I also find it even harder to believe that Skinner can go from a looking to be very good young starting goalie to crap in a few weeks of playoff games.

It is what it is in here I guess.


Do you totally discount recent performance when you're trying to create the best team in the NHL the next season? We aren't just some average team that you just hope things work out every year. We have the best player in the NHL and possibly the 2nd best and we continue to misplay our hand. Plus we're on the cusp of those 2 guys having to make their decision to stick around. We need to be dang sure we have our important positions solid next season. It's a huge risk to just hope goaltending will work out, especially with our untouchable regression master coaching our goalies.

These Carter Hart rumors are frightening honestly. A quadruple down on Schwartz by getting his most popular student. God...

I look at the whole season of work of a player, not 12 games.

In 21-22 - Skinner played in 13 games, started 12. He was 6-6 2.62GA, .913% 1 shut out. No one would accuse that Oilers team of being defensive specialists. So not eye popping but pretty decent numbers.

In 22-23 - Skinner played in 50 games, started 48. He was 29-14-5 2.75GA, .914% 1 shut out. Again, no one would accuse the Oilers team of being defensive specialists. Again, not eye popping but pretty decent numbers. He got voted to the all star team and is up for the calder.

The playoffs, he wasn't near as good. But I look at the body of work and for the huge majority of it, he was pretty good. He has 60 regular season starts and for the most part, they are pretty good. The 12 playoffs starts, not so good. Now I have listed many times the pressures of the playoffs can impact even vet guys. In my opinion, that pressure is more on a rookie, then it is even more when you are playing in your home town. Then I think it's even more if you are a rookie goalie, playing in your home town in a hockey insane market. So in my opinion, I think the pressure got to the rookie but he isn't the first rookie not to play well in their first playoffs and he won't be the last.

So then I look at the body of work and I personally see the makings of a good goalie who had a tough 12 games at the worst time. I think the pressures of the playoffs got to him but he will be better for it next season. In all the times he spoke, he seems to be a guy who will take whatever bad happened and use it as fuel to be better. So I think he will be better next year. But, if he isn't better, if he just stays as he is, I still see a solid NHL goalie have can play over 40 starts and give you a chance to win who's signed to a reasonable deal for the next 3 seasons.

So the Oilers could trade Skinner, bring in someone else and maybe that guy is better but he could just as easily not be any better and maybe way worse than what they had, just like Campbell was last year.




I would say first off, the body of work is small no matter how we try to dig in. Think these playoffs highlight again to everyone how unpredictable and how helpful or damaging goaltending can be.

Can we break out Skinner's year into 3 parts?

2022 - 0.917 sav%, 2.78 GAA, 0.856 high danger sav%

Those are great stats, great start to his season. He pretty much saved us when Campbell went right down the toilet with his glove with a hole in it and butter pads that he had to completely switch all of.

2023 regular season - 0.910 sav%, 2.72 GAA, 0.808 high danger sav%

His individual contribution to wins started to tail off. We finally started to score for him, so it didn't matter as much. He did have some rough periods and needed Campbell to step in to give him a break.

And of course playoffs - 0.883 sav%, 3.68 GAA, 0.755 high danger sav%

I mentioned before, I think he got exposed for his poor stick work. Lots of goals by guys just staking out right in front of him, or pucks passed across right in front and he's keeping his stick tight up against his pads not even considering to use it to break up the play. His second efforts on saves vanished along with his confidence. Our D, especially one pair, were extra braindead about covering the net which helped give a little negative boost to his numbers.


We saw the good for a few months. The average for a few months, and just a chaotic mess for a month.

Now do we focus just on the good? Assume it comes back and he can sustain it? It's certainly possible, but I think you're taking a risk if you are going to count on it happening. Many goalies in history have had a season like Skinners and just cratered the next year.

I guess in the end all I'm saying is that you can't be certain at all about what you're getting from Skinner next season. He ended up at every extreme this year, he is very early in his career with a tiny NHL sample size. You better have some smart people in your org making the best possible educated guesses on how his career is going to go now, and I don't think we have anything like that.

What it comes down to for me is if a person thinks Skinner has peaked and he's going to spiral down or as first year NHL goalie, can he improve. I don't have a crystal ball so maybe this is a good as Skinner gets and from here, the best he can do is maintain. Personally, I think that's jumping the gun a little. He's 24, a first year NHL goalie. All the way along his pro career, he's shown improvement each year. So I am going to for now, believe in his trend of getting better as he gets experience.
This is the last time I am going to talk about this topic because all I am doing is repeating the same message over and over again. In my opinion, unless you are getting back a guaranteed, no doubt he is better now and will be better for years to come, signed goalie who makes around the same money as Skinner, in my opinion it would be a foolish mistake to get rid of a 24 yr old goalie who is signed for a reasonable contract and who's shown an ability to give you good goaltending, who's coming off his first year as a full time NHL goaltender, primarily because he had a bad playoff which was his very first one for the reasons I have listed multiple times.

So a person can say they aren't basing their decision on the 12 games and list all the stats you want but in my opinion, they are lying. I say that because there wasn't a person here, at least I can't remember one, who was advocating to trade Skinner off before the playoffs. Then a rookie has a rough playoffs, something extremely common and the switch got turned and now he can't do the job and we should be looking elsewhere.

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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824182 is a reply to message #824181 ]
Wed, 07 June 2023 14:48 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently offline Kr55
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RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 14:35

Kr55 wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 13:54

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 13:21

Kr55 wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 08:44

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 08:18

No one will convince me otherwise that the people in here or in social media who are advocating to trade Skinner because of 12 games in the playoffs or advocating to get rid of Campbell because of 1 bad season when if you look at his career, he's normally .914 or better, to me is a complete borderline irrational overreaction.

If Campbell doesn't improve then he is no longer an NHL goalie. I find that pretty hard to believe that he can go from being a fairly solid NHL goalie to being done in 1 yr at 31. I also find it even harder to believe that Skinner can go from a looking to be very good young starting goalie to crap in a few weeks of playoff games.

It is what it is in here I guess.


Do you totally discount recent performance when you're trying to create the best team in the NHL the next season? We aren't just some average team that you just hope things work out every year. We have the best player in the NHL and possibly the 2nd best and we continue to misplay our hand. Plus we're on the cusp of those 2 guys having to make their decision to stick around. We need to be dang sure we have our important positions solid next season. It's a huge risk to just hope goaltending will work out, especially with our untouchable regression master coaching our goalies.

These Carter Hart rumors are frightening honestly. A quadruple down on Schwartz by getting his most popular student. God...

I look at the whole season of work of a player, not 12 games.

In 21-22 - Skinner played in 13 games, started 12. He was 6-6 2.62GA, .913% 1 shut out. No one would accuse that Oilers team of being defensive specialists. So not eye popping but pretty decent numbers.

In 22-23 - Skinner played in 50 games, started 48. He was 29-14-5 2.75GA, .914% 1 shut out. Again, no one would accuse the Oilers team of being defensive specialists. Again, not eye popping but pretty decent numbers. He got voted to the all star team and is up for the calder.

The playoffs, he wasn't near as good. But I look at the body of work and for the huge majority of it, he was pretty good. He has 60 regular season starts and for the most part, they are pretty good. The 12 playoffs starts, not so good. Now I have listed many times the pressures of the playoffs can impact even vet guys. In my opinion, that pressure is more on a rookie, then it is even more when you are playing in your home town. Then I think it's even more if you are a rookie goalie, playing in your home town in a hockey insane market. So in my opinion, I think the pressure got to the rookie but he isn't the first rookie not to play well in their first playoffs and he won't be the last.

So then I look at the body of work and I personally see the makings of a good goalie who had a tough 12 games at the worst time. I think the pressures of the playoffs got to him but he will be better for it next season. In all the times he spoke, he seems to be a guy who will take whatever bad happened and use it as fuel to be better. So I think he will be better next year. But, if he isn't better, if he just stays as he is, I still see a solid NHL goalie have can play over 40 starts and give you a chance to win who's signed to a reasonable deal for the next 3 seasons.

So the Oilers could trade Skinner, bring in someone else and maybe that guy is better but he could just as easily not be any better and maybe way worse than what they had, just like Campbell was last year.




I would say first off, the body of work is small no matter how we try to dig in. Think these playoffs highlight again to everyone how unpredictable and how helpful or damaging goaltending can be.

Can we break out Skinner's year into 3 parts?

2022 - 0.917 sav%, 2.78 GAA, 0.856 high danger sav%

Those are great stats, great start to his season. He pretty much saved us when Campbell went right down the toilet with his glove with a hole in it and butter pads that he had to completely switch all of.

2023 regular season - 0.910 sav%, 2.72 GAA, 0.808 high danger sav%

His individual contribution to wins started to tail off. We finally started to score for him, so it didn't matter as much. He did have some rough periods and needed Campbell to step in to give him a break.

And of course playoffs - 0.883 sav%, 3.68 GAA, 0.755 high danger sav%

I mentioned before, I think he got exposed for his poor stick work. Lots of goals by guys just staking out right in front of him, or pucks passed across right in front and he's keeping his stick tight up against his pads not even considering to use it to break up the play. His second efforts on saves vanished along with his confidence. Our D, especially one pair, were extra braindead about covering the net which helped give a little negative boost to his numbers.


We saw the good for a few months. The average for a few months, and just a chaotic mess for a month.

Now do we focus just on the good? Assume it comes back and he can sustain it? It's certainly possible, but I think you're taking a risk if you are going to count on it happening. Many goalies in history have had a season like Skinners and just cratered the next year.

I guess in the end all I'm saying is that you can't be certain at all about what you're getting from Skinner next season. He ended up at every extreme this year, he is very early in his career with a tiny NHL sample size. You better have some smart people in your org making the best possible educated guesses on how his career is going to go now, and I don't think we have anything like that.

What it comes down to for me is if a person thinks Skinner has peaked and he's going to spiral down or as first year NHL goalie, can he improve. I don't have a crystal ball so maybe this is a good as Skinner gets and from here, the best he can do is maintain. Personally, I think that's jumping the gun a little. He's 24, a first year NHL goalie. All the way along his pro career, he's shown improvement each year. So I am going to for now, believe in his trend of getting better as he gets experience.
This is the last time I am going to talk about this topic because all I am doing is repeating the same message over and over again. In my opinion, unless you are getting back a guaranteed, no doubt he is better now and will be better for years to come, signed goalie who makes around the same money as Skinner, in my opinion it would be a foolish mistake to get rid of a 24 yr old goalie who is signed for a reasonable contract and who's shown an ability to give you good goaltending, who's coming off his first year as a full time NHL goaltender, primarily because he had a bad playoff which was his very first one for the reasons I have listed multiple times.

So a person can say they aren't basing their decision on the 12 games and list all the stats you want but in my opinion, they are lying. I say that because there wasn't a person here, at least I can't remember one, who was advocating to trade Skinner off before the playoffs. Then a rookie has a rough playoffs, something extremely common and the switch got turned and now he can't do the job and we should be looking elsewhere.


I'd like to keep him too, but Campbell really complicates everything for us. It's looking like it might be near impossible to move him. I said I don't think we can be sure what we have in Skinner yet, but Campbell is a whole other discussion. I think most teams wouldn't touch him next season, at least not ones that feel they need to win a cup ASAP. But I think we might be stuck with him, which puts crazy pressure on that other goalie spot to be someone that you are pretty sure can perform. And not just perform here and there, it's possible you go into the season 90% sure that the other guy aside from Campbell is going to have to be your starter and playoff goalie.

Any plan into the season where you think Campbell can be a reliable starter is a 100% gamble. For our team you would essentially be gambling on Drai and McDavid's future in the org at the same time. The stakes are HUGE right now.

So, that's how I'm framing the Skinner discussion in my mind. Are you sure this guy is starter/playoff starter material. He certainly has the potential to be, but the 23/24 season is the new most consequential season in the McDrai era, and one that, if we fail, could end that era.

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824183 is a reply to message #824181 ]
Wed, 07 June 2023 14:54 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi is currently offline CrusaderPi
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RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 14:35

Kr55 wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 13:54

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 13:21

Kr55 wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 08:44

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 08:18

No one will convince me otherwise that the people in here or in social media who are advocating to trade Skinner because of 12 games in the playoffs or advocating to get rid of Campbell because of 1 bad season when if you look at his career, he's normally .914 or better, to me is a complete borderline irrational overreaction.

If Campbell doesn't improve then he is no longer an NHL goalie. I find that pretty hard to believe that he can go from being a fairly solid NHL goalie to being done in 1 yr at 31. I also find it even harder to believe that Skinner can go from a looking to be very good young starting goalie to crap in a few weeks of playoff games.

It is what it is in here I guess.


Do you totally discount recent performance when you're trying to create the best team in the NHL the next season? We aren't just some average team that you just hope things work out every year. We have the best player in the NHL and possibly the 2nd best and we continue to misplay our hand. Plus we're on the cusp of those 2 guys having to make their decision to stick around. We need to be dang sure we have our important positions solid next season. It's a huge risk to just hope goaltending will work out, especially with our untouchable regression master coaching our goalies.

These Carter Hart rumors are frightening honestly. A quadruple down on Schwartz by getting his most popular student. God...

I look at the whole season of work of a player, not 12 games.

In 21-22 - Skinner played in 13 games, started 12. He was 6-6 2.62GA, .913% 1 shut out. No one would accuse that Oilers team of being defensive specialists. So not eye popping but pretty decent numbers.

In 22-23 - Skinner played in 50 games, started 48. He was 29-14-5 2.75GA, .914% 1 shut out. Again, no one would accuse the Oilers team of being defensive specialists. Again, not eye popping but pretty decent numbers. He got voted to the all star team and is up for the calder.

The playoffs, he wasn't near as good. But I look at the body of work and for the huge majority of it, he was pretty good. He has 60 regular season starts and for the most part, they are pretty good. The 12 playoffs starts, not so good. Now I have listed many times the pressures of the playoffs can impact even vet guys. In my opinion, that pressure is more on a rookie, then it is even more when you are playing in your home town. Then I think it's even more if you are a rookie goalie, playing in your home town in a hockey insane market. So in my opinion, I think the pressure got to the rookie but he isn't the first rookie not to play well in their first playoffs and he won't be the last.

So then I look at the body of work and I personally see the makings of a good goalie who had a tough 12 games at the worst time. I think the pressures of the playoffs got to him but he will be better for it next season. In all the times he spoke, he seems to be a guy who will take whatever bad happened and use it as fuel to be better. So I think he will be better next year. But, if he isn't better, if he just stays as he is, I still see a solid NHL goalie have can play over 40 starts and give you a chance to win who's signed to a reasonable deal for the next 3 seasons.

So the Oilers could trade Skinner, bring in someone else and maybe that guy is better but he could just as easily not be any better and maybe way worse than what they had, just like Campbell was last year.




I would say first off, the body of work is small no matter how we try to dig in. Think these playoffs highlight again to everyone how unpredictable and how helpful or damaging goaltending can be.

Can we break out Skinner's year into 3 parts?

2022 - 0.917 sav%, 2.78 GAA, 0.856 high danger sav%

Those are great stats, great start to his season. He pretty much saved us when Campbell went right down the toilet with his glove with a hole in it and butter pads that he had to completely switch all of.

2023 regular season - 0.910 sav%, 2.72 GAA, 0.808 high danger sav%

His individual contribution to wins started to tail off. We finally started to score for him, so it didn't matter as much. He did have some rough periods and needed Campbell to step in to give him a break.

And of course playoffs - 0.883 sav%, 3.68 GAA, 0.755 high danger sav%

I mentioned before, I think he got exposed for his poor stick work. Lots of goals by guys just staking out right in front of him, or pucks passed across right in front and he's keeping his stick tight up against his pads not even considering to use it to break up the play. His second efforts on saves vanished along with his confidence. Our D, especially one pair, were extra braindead about covering the net which helped give a little negative boost to his numbers.


We saw the good for a few months. The average for a few months, and just a chaotic mess for a month.

Now do we focus just on the good? Assume it comes back and he can sustain it? It's certainly possible, but I think you're taking a risk if you are going to count on it happening. Many goalies in history have had a season like Skinners and just cratered the next year.

I guess in the end all I'm saying is that you can't be certain at all about what you're getting from Skinner next season. He ended up at every extreme this year, he is very early in his career with a tiny NHL sample size. You better have some smart people in your org making the best possible educated guesses on how his career is going to go now, and I don't think we have anything like that.

What it comes down to for me is if a person thinks Skinner has peaked and he's going to spiral down or as first year NHL goalie, can he improve. I don't have a crystal ball so maybe this is a good as Skinner gets and from here, the best he can do is maintain. Personally, I think that's jumping the gun a little. He's 24, a first year NHL goalie. All the way along his pro career, he's shown improvement each year. So I am going to for now, believe in his trend of getting better as he gets experience.
This is the last time I am going to talk about this topic because all I am doing is repeating the same message over and over again. In my opinion, unless you are getting back a guaranteed, no doubt he is better now and will be better for years to come, signed goalie who makes around the same money as Skinner, in my opinion it would be a foolish mistake to get rid of a 24 yr old goalie who is signed for a reasonable contract and who's shown an ability to give you good goaltending, who's coming off his first year as a full time NHL goaltender, primarily because he had a bad playoff which was his very first one for the reasons I have listed multiple times.

So a person can say they aren't basing their decision on the 12 games and list all the stats you want but in my opinion, they are lying. I say that because there wasn't a person here, at least I can't remember one, who was advocating to trade Skinner off before the playoffs. Then a rookie has a rough playoffs, something extremely common and the switch got turned and now he can't do the job and we should be looking elsewhere.

First comment in the Skinner Extended thread:

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 19 December 2022 09:39

Anyone worried this is another Koskinen thing where they jump the gun on resigning a guy based on limited games? I personally don't think it is but it popped in my head when I saw that.




There have been questions.

Anyway, the suggestion isn't trade Skinner because he sucks or trade Skinner because his last 12 games kind of sucked (I actually don't think this correct. He was wildly average against two very good teams) it's either trade Skinner because the value might be high or trade Skinner because we can't risk next year on the Soup and Stew combo.


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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824186 is a reply to message #824183 ]
Wed, 07 June 2023 15:16 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently offline RDOilerfan
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CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 14:54

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 14:35

Kr55 wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 13:54

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 13:21

Kr55 wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 08:44

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 08:18

No one will convince me otherwise that the people in here or in social media who are advocating to trade Skinner because of 12 games in the playoffs or advocating to get rid of Campbell because of 1 bad season when if you look at his career, he's normally .914 or better, to me is a complete borderline irrational overreaction.

If Campbell doesn't improve then he is no longer an NHL goalie. I find that pretty hard to believe that he can go from being a fairly solid NHL goalie to being done in 1 yr at 31. I also find it even harder to believe that Skinner can go from a looking to be very good young starting goalie to crap in a few weeks of playoff games.

It is what it is in here I guess.


Do you totally discount recent performance when you're trying to create the best team in the NHL the next season? We aren't just some average team that you just hope things work out every year. We have the best player in the NHL and possibly the 2nd best and we continue to misplay our hand. Plus we're on the cusp of those 2 guys having to make their decision to stick around. We need to be dang sure we have our important positions solid next season. It's a huge risk to just hope goaltending will work out, especially with our untouchable regression master coaching our goalies.

These Carter Hart rumors are frightening honestly. A quadruple down on Schwartz by getting his most popular student. God...

I look at the whole season of work of a player, not 12 games.

In 21-22 - Skinner played in 13 games, started 12. He was 6-6 2.62GA, .913% 1 shut out. No one would accuse that Oilers team of being defensive specialists. So not eye popping but pretty decent numbers.

In 22-23 - Skinner played in 50 games, started 48. He was 29-14-5 2.75GA, .914% 1 shut out. Again, no one would accuse the Oilers team of being defensive specialists. Again, not eye popping but pretty decent numbers. He got voted to the all star team and is up for the calder.

The playoffs, he wasn't near as good. But I look at the body of work and for the huge majority of it, he was pretty good. He has 60 regular season starts and for the most part, they are pretty good. The 12 playoffs starts, not so good. Now I have listed many times the pressures of the playoffs can impact even vet guys. In my opinion, that pressure is more on a rookie, then it is even more when you are playing in your home town. Then I think it's even more if you are a rookie goalie, playing in your home town in a hockey insane market. So in my opinion, I think the pressure got to the rookie but he isn't the first rookie not to play well in their first playoffs and he won't be the last.

So then I look at the body of work and I personally see the makings of a good goalie who had a tough 12 games at the worst time. I think the pressures of the playoffs got to him but he will be better for it next season. In all the times he spoke, he seems to be a guy who will take whatever bad happened and use it as fuel to be better. So I think he will be better next year. But, if he isn't better, if he just stays as he is, I still see a solid NHL goalie have can play over 40 starts and give you a chance to win who's signed to a reasonable deal for the next 3 seasons.

So the Oilers could trade Skinner, bring in someone else and maybe that guy is better but he could just as easily not be any better and maybe way worse than what they had, just like Campbell was last year.




I would say first off, the body of work is small no matter how we try to dig in. Think these playoffs highlight again to everyone how unpredictable and how helpful or damaging goaltending can be.

Can we break out Skinner's year into 3 parts?

2022 - 0.917 sav%, 2.78 GAA, 0.856 high danger sav%

Those are great stats, great start to his season. He pretty much saved us when Campbell went right down the toilet with his glove with a hole in it and butter pads that he had to completely switch all of.

2023 regular season - 0.910 sav%, 2.72 GAA, 0.808 high danger sav%

His individual contribution to wins started to tail off. We finally started to score for him, so it didn't matter as much. He did have some rough periods and needed Campbell to step in to give him a break.

And of course playoffs - 0.883 sav%, 3.68 GAA, 0.755 high danger sav%

I mentioned before, I think he got exposed for his poor stick work. Lots of goals by guys just staking out right in front of him, or pucks passed across right in front and he's keeping his stick tight up against his pads not even considering to use it to break up the play. His second efforts on saves vanished along with his confidence. Our D, especially one pair, were extra braindead about covering the net which helped give a little negative boost to his numbers.


We saw the good for a few months. The average for a few months, and just a chaotic mess for a month.

Now do we focus just on the good? Assume it comes back and he can sustain it? It's certainly possible, but I think you're taking a risk if you are going to count on it happening. Many goalies in history have had a season like Skinners and just cratered the next year.

I guess in the end all I'm saying is that you can't be certain at all about what you're getting from Skinner next season. He ended up at every extreme this year, he is very early in his career with a tiny NHL sample size. You better have some smart people in your org making the best possible educated guesses on how his career is going to go now, and I don't think we have anything like that.

What it comes down to for me is if a person thinks Skinner has peaked and he's going to spiral down or as first year NHL goalie, can he improve. I don't have a crystal ball so maybe this is a good as Skinner gets and from here, the best he can do is maintain. Personally, I think that's jumping the gun a little. He's 24, a first year NHL goalie. All the way along his pro career, he's shown improvement each year. So I am going to for now, believe in his trend of getting better as he gets experience.
This is the last time I am going to talk about this topic because all I am doing is repeating the same message over and over again. In my opinion, unless you are getting back a guaranteed, no doubt he is better now and will be better for years to come, signed goalie who makes around the same money as Skinner, in my opinion it would be a foolish mistake to get rid of a 24 yr old goalie who is signed for a reasonable contract and who's shown an ability to give you good goaltending, who's coming off his first year as a full time NHL goaltender, primarily because he had a bad playoff which was his very first one for the reasons I have listed multiple times.

So a person can say they aren't basing their decision on the 12 games and list all the stats you want but in my opinion, they are lying. I say that because there wasn't a person here, at least I can't remember one, who was advocating to trade Skinner off before the playoffs. Then a rookie has a rough playoffs, something extremely common and the switch got turned and now he can't do the job and we should be looking elsewhere.

First comment in the Skinner Extended thread:

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 19 December 2022 09:39

Anyone worried this is another Koskinen thing where they jump the gun on resigning a guy based on limited games? I personally don't think it is but it popped in my head when I saw that.




There have been questions.

Anyway, the suggestion isn't trade Skinner because he sucks or trade Skinner because his last 12 games kind of sucked (I actually don't think this correct. He was wildly average against two very good teams) it's either trade Skinner because the value might be high or trade Skinner because we can't risk next year on the Soup and Stew combo.


When you comment on what I say, do you ever just comment on what I actually say or just twist it to suit your narrative?

In my comment that you quoted in this particular thread, it literally says I can't remember a person advocating to trade Skinner BEFORE THE PLAYOFFS started. I am talking about stuff that happened in April so you drag out a quote from mid December.

So I am taking about trading the guy and you drag out a comment I made about his contract. How the hell are they related? Which in case you are wondering, I stand by what I said regarding the contract because I would have waited until the end of the season to sign him but it looks like it will probably be OK.

But you win PI. You and Adam win. I have repeated myself so many times on this topic, you have beat the will to comment on it anymore. I can only take so much irrational chatter before I am at my limit. Congrats!

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 Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824190 is a reply to message #824186 ]
Wed, 07 June 2023 15:58 Go to previous messageGo to previous message
Adam is currently online Adam
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RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 15:16


But you win PI. You and Adam win.


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Now, if only the Oilers can find a goalie that can help them win too...

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