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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823946 is a reply to message #823945 ]
Wed, 24 May 2023 16:21 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi is currently offline CrusaderPi
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RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 16:19

Adam wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 16:05

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 15:52

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 15:44


Very true. The Oilers had the opportunity to cheat and they didn't do it. I can't argue with that. In hindsight, they should have cheated, got the cap space and loaded up even more. I hope if the opportunity arises next season, they will do it. I am being 100% serious. If the league is going to allow this joke of a system to keep going, the Oilers need to play the system just like the Knights.

This is a learning opportunity. What Vegas (and Edmonton) did is well within the rules. We can either see excellence where it exists and learn from it or complain about the unfairness of life while remaining stagnant. Us fans or Oilers management not liking the rules does not make other teams following them cheating.


100%.

It's not like this is the first time something like this has happened and no one has ever thought of this before. We're talking about a loophole that's been used repeatedly since the Blackhawks did it in 2014-15 by sitting out Patrick Kane for the last 21 games of the regular season. They used his money to trade for Kimmo Timmonen, Antoine Vermette and Andrew Desjardins. Oh, and the won the Cup that year.

Holland has acted disdainful about people using these methods to stretch their cap room (even though we were in LTIR much of the year ourselves). He's never yet tried to use a third party to off-load some cap hit. He's instead talked about how we don't have cap space as a constant excuse as to why he can't do more. I mean, who can forget a couple years ago when he suggested that he couldn't spend more because what if Slater Koekkoek was healthy and able to rejoin the team? Koekkoek did of course play in the last game of the season, so it was pretty fortunate that we didn't re-spend his money that Spring!

Spoiler - if Holland is still the GM, we aren't going to do anything creative next year either.

There it is! Another Oilers management sucks comment from Adam. I am stunned it took this long.

Oilers management does suck. You and I have been talking about it all day. Frankly I think half the reason Oilers fans suck now, and we sound an awful lot like peak the peak Dys now, is because we listen to Oilers management still.

Edit to add: way back when, before my times here, Oilfans call the Canucks the Dynasties (Dys) because their fans were obnoxious, arrogant, and entitled despite Canucks have very little success.

[Updated on: Wed, 24 May 2023 16:35]

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823948 is a reply to message #823946 ]
Wed, 24 May 2023 16:58 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently offline RDOilerfan
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CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 16:21

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 16:19

Adam wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 16:05

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 15:52

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 15:44


Very true. The Oilers had the opportunity to cheat and they didn't do it. I can't argue with that. In hindsight, they should have cheated, got the cap space and loaded up even more. I hope if the opportunity arises next season, they will do it. I am being 100% serious. If the league is going to allow this joke of a system to keep going, the Oilers need to play the system just like the Knights.

This is a learning opportunity. What Vegas (and Edmonton) did is well within the rules. We can either see excellence where it exists and learn from it or complain about the unfairness of life while remaining stagnant. Us fans or Oilers management not liking the rules does not make other teams following them cheating.


100%.

It's not like this is the first time something like this has happened and no one has ever thought of this before. We're talking about a loophole that's been used repeatedly since the Blackhawks did it in 2014-15 by sitting out Patrick Kane for the last 21 games of the regular season. They used his money to trade for Kimmo Timmonen, Antoine Vermette and Andrew Desjardins. Oh, and the won the Cup that year.

Holland has acted disdainful about people using these methods to stretch their cap room (even though we were in LTIR much of the year ourselves). He's never yet tried to use a third party to off-load some cap hit. He's instead talked about how we don't have cap space as a constant excuse as to why he can't do more. I mean, who can forget a couple years ago when he suggested that he couldn't spend more because what if Slater Koekkoek was healthy and able to rejoin the team? Koekkoek did of course play in the last game of the season, so it was pretty fortunate that we didn't re-spend his money that Spring!

Spoiler - if Holland is still the GM, we aren't going to do anything creative next year either.

There it is! Another Oilers management sucks comment from Adam. I am stunned it took this long.

Oilers management does suck. You and I have been talking about it all day. Frankly I think half the reason Oilers fans suck now, and we sound an awful lot like peak the peak Dys now, is because we listen to Oilers management still.

Edit to add: way back when, before my times here, Oilfans call the Canucks the Dynasties (Dys) because their fans were obnoxious, arrogant, and entitled despite Canucks have very little success.

Serious question. If you think the Oilers Management is terrible and in capable of doing their job to any level of competency and you think the team has no chance of winning, why do you bother supposedly cheering for them? There is 31 other teams, you could pick another one to cheer for that you think is better off. There is no law that says because you live in Alberta, you have to cheer for the Oilers. You seem to love Vegas, cheer for Vegas. They are a division team so they will play the Oilers multiple times in Edmonton. Most average people only go to a couple of games a year anyway so you would get to see them a few times live. Vegas is a good place to visit to watch your new team in their home barn. All you need is a jersey and you are set.

Sports should be fun for people. If they make you miserable, why cheer for them.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823960 is a reply to message #823948 ]
Wed, 24 May 2023 22:15 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi is currently offline CrusaderPi
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RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 16:58


Serious question. If you think the Oilers Management is terrible and in capable of doing their job to any level of competency and you think the team has no chance of winning, why do you bother supposedly cheering for them? There is 31 other teams, you could pick another one to cheer for that you think is better off. There is no law that says because you live in Alberta, you have to cheer for the Oilers. You seem to love Vegas, cheer for Vegas. They are a division team so they will play the Oilers multiple times in Edmonton. Most average people only go to a couple of games a year anyway so you would get to see them a few times live. Vegas is a good place to visit to watch your new team in their home barn. All you need is a jersey and you are set.

Sports should be fun for people. If they make you miserable, why cheer for them.

Cute post.

The fact you can't conceive of another way of being a fan says more than you could possibly image.

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823961 is a reply to message #823960 ]
Wed, 24 May 2023 22:39 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Ragnarok73 is currently offline Ragnarok73
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CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 22:15

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 16:58


Serious question. If you think the Oilers Management is terrible and in capable of doing their job to any level of competency and you think the team has no chance of winning, why do you bother supposedly cheering for them? There is 31 other teams, you could pick another one to cheer for that you think is better off. There is no law that says because you live in Alberta, you have to cheer for the Oilers. You seem to love Vegas, cheer for Vegas. They are a division team so they will play the Oilers multiple times in Edmonton. Most average people only go to a couple of games a year anyway so you would get to see them a few times live. Vegas is a good place to visit to watch your new team in their home barn. All you need is a jersey and you are set.

Sports should be fun for people. If they make you miserable, why cheer for them.

Cute post.

The fact you can't conceive of another way of being a fan says more than you could possibly image.

It's almost like we didn't suffer through a decade of darkness before being blessed with McJesus. Being a fan doesn't mean being a blind pollyanna.

"There's no greater springboard to development than failure." - Craig MacTavish, April 13/15.

5-14-6-1

"Sabres think the suck is their ally? They merely adopted the suck. The Oilers were born in it...molded by it."

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823962 is a reply to message #823961 ]
Wed, 24 May 2023 22:55 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently offline Adam
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Ragnarok73 wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 22:39

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 22:15

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 16:58


Serious question. If you think the Oilers Management is terrible and in capable of doing their job to any level of competency and you think the team has no chance of winning, why do you bother supposedly cheering for them? There is 31 other teams, you could pick another one to cheer for that you think is better off. There is no law that says because you live in Alberta, you have to cheer for the Oilers. You seem to love Vegas, cheer for Vegas. They are a division team so they will play the Oilers multiple times in Edmonton. Most average people only go to a couple of games a year anyway so you would get to see them a few times live. Vegas is a good place to visit to watch your new team in their home barn. All you need is a jersey and you are set.

Sports should be fun for people. If they make you miserable, why cheer for them.

Cute post.

The fact you can't conceive of another way of being a fan says more than you could possibly image.

It's almost like we didn't suffer through a decade of darkness before being blessed with McJesus. Being a fan doesn't mean being a blind pollyanna.


Hey, if you are an Oilers fan you should have a shrine to each of the holy trinity of Holland, Nicholson & Lowe. If you dare question their obvious infallibility when it comes to decision making then you should be banished to cheer for another team for at least 10 years.

Of course if you want to crap all over Nugent-Hopkins or Nurse or any number of now-former players then go for it!

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823947 is a reply to message #823939 ]
Wed, 24 May 2023 16:43 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Jay is currently offline Jay
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CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 15:52

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 15:44


Very true. The Oilers had the opportunity to cheat and they didn't do it. I can't argue with that. In hindsight, they should have cheated, got the cap space and loaded up even more. I hope if the opportunity arises next season, they will do it. I am being 100% serious. If the league is going to allow this joke of a system to keep going, the Oilers need to play the system just like the Knights.

This is a learning opportunity. What Vegas (and Edmonton) did is well within the rules. We can either see excellence where it exists and learn from it or complain about the unfairness of life while remaining stagnant. Us fans or Oilers management not liking the rules does not make other teams following them cheating.

Didnt the league issue some sort of warning about this around three trade deadline?
Clearly Edmonton could have and should have done it and taken their chances with the repercussions. But let's be real their would have been repercussions. I don't think there is any chance that Edmonton doing the miraculous recovery in time for the playoffs thing doesn't result in a forfeited pick.

"Initiative comes to thems that wait"

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823969 is a reply to message #823947 ]
Thu, 25 May 2023 09:39 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Dragon_Matt is currently offline Dragon_Matt
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Donated pick... likely to Calgary.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823949 is a reply to message #823905 ]
Wed, 24 May 2023 17:14 Go to previous messageGo to next message
inverno76 is currently offline inverno76
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Adam wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 00:17

inverno76 wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 19:53

Adam wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 12:31

Dragon_Matt wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 12:18

Don't forget, Leon also has a 10 team list for who he'd be willing to go to. So... even if someone offered you a ship filled with gold, it'd still have to be a destination he agreed to.

That being said, If he refused (making it 100% clear he's not sticking around) to sign an extension, I think you have to trade him. Even with only one year remaining, we'd be paid a king's ransom. You can't let him walk away. Imagine how much better off NYI would be if they had moved Tavares for extra pieces. Maybe they'd have Nylander or Reilly. How much better off would they be?


This is the sad reality. I'm fine with the idea that you can't get enough value in a trade for Draisaitl to make it worth while this summer. That said, exploring some discussions probably makes sense because enxt summer it's suddenly all real. If he's not signing a contract extension, then there's a Sophie's Choice decision to be made...trade him, knowing that you're probably going to struggle not to lose the deal, or keep him and pray that we win the Cup that year before he hits UFA status. If we go in to the season two years from now with Leon in the fold, then you can't really trade him mid-year without possibly ripping the heart out of the team just before McDavid's own renewal decision. The only way I think we get an extension and avoid this issue is if the Oilers play in the Finals next year. Anything less than that and I think there's an excellent chance he looks to play out his deal, or at best, offers a one-year deal to mirror McDavid's horizon.


The danger of even shopping 97 or 29 around is it’s going to be leaked. It’s not just the Oilers who have loose lips, but guys like Seravelli and Friedman hear everything. Once the word gets out the walls start to crumble. Fans go nuts. Media Center every article around it and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

You only shop one or both of them if you’ve decided to move on. Their names are too big and the rumours will fly and poison the waters even further.

Goalies are voodoo. Elite centres are difficult to find, and the difference between a Cup and a first round exit is almost as much about luck than it is building a 2023 Bruins regular season team.

The bed has been made. The mattress is firm. Sheets are tucked in. Pillows are fluffed, and you’re not buying a new bed anytime soon. You’re just changing the throw pillows looking for the right look.



Two things:

First, if I'm talking Draisaitl, I'm not sending emails. I'm having one-on-one conversations with rival GMs. And if anything comes out, I'm telling people that you get asked about virtually everyone on the team at various points, but you have no intention to trade him. If pressed, I might add that everyone is available at a price, but that for a player like Draisaitl, that price would be very, very high.

Secondly, I don't actually believe that goalies are voodoo. I think there are teams that believe that because they don't have adequate resources spent on developing a better understanding of the position. We've seen teams that have long track records of finding and developing goaltenders. I think it comes down to scouting, player acquisition and then player development. If you have good people in those roles, I think you'd find that like anything else, there's an element of predictability to it.

I mean, you can still always screw it up, if for example your GM calls out your goalie by name in an off-season presser and suggests he is probably not the right solution and then leaks intentionally all the goalies that they almost trade for that summer - ignoring that your goalie was in the top half of starters that year and your team was a lottery-slot organization - but I mean, what's the chance of us doing that again?

By the way, for Skinner, same deal. If I shop him, I'm being very quiet about it, restricting the access within our team to need-to-know only and threatening leakers with dismissal and possible legal action (assuming that most have signed NDAs at some point). And I'm making clear to my rival GM that if it gets out and ends up on 32 Thoughts, I'm going out of my way to burn their organization too, even if it means spreading completely false news to Friedman. We're so used to these things all being public because the Oilers have been the leakiest ship in the NHL for two decades, but it doesn't have to be that way, and it really shouldn't be.


Fair, but I believe other teams inquire all the time about star players. It’s a way easier narrative to spot n saying team X asked and we said they were off limits.

And I respectfully disagree. Goalies are voodoo. Team defence props up the non superstar tenders, which makes up the majority of the league and even then your Bobrovsky’s Binnington’s, Oettiinger’s still struggle. Voodoo.


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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823974 is a reply to message #823949 ]
Thu, 25 May 2023 10:35 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently offline RDOilerfan
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inverno76 wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 17:14

Adam wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 00:17

inverno76 wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 19:53

Adam wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 12:31

Dragon_Matt wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 12:18

Don't forget, Leon also has a 10 team list for who he'd be willing to go to. So... even if someone offered you a ship filled with gold, it'd still have to be a destination he agreed to.

That being said, If he refused (making it 100% clear he's not sticking around) to sign an extension, I think you have to trade him. Even with only one year remaining, we'd be paid a king's ransom. You can't let him walk away. Imagine how much better off NYI would be if they had moved Tavares for extra pieces. Maybe they'd have Nylander or Reilly. How much better off would they be?


This is the sad reality. I'm fine with the idea that you can't get enough value in a trade for Draisaitl to make it worth while this summer. That said, exploring some discussions probably makes sense because enxt summer it's suddenly all real. If he's not signing a contract extension, then there's a Sophie's Choice decision to be made...trade him, knowing that you're probably going to struggle not to lose the deal, or keep him and pray that we win the Cup that year before he hits UFA status. If we go in to the season two years from now with Leon in the fold, then you can't really trade him mid-year without possibly ripping the heart out of the team just before McDavid's own renewal decision. The only way I think we get an extension and avoid this issue is if the Oilers play in the Finals next year. Anything less than that and I think there's an excellent chance he looks to play out his deal, or at best, offers a one-year deal to mirror McDavid's horizon.


The danger of even shopping 97 or 29 around is it’s going to be leaked. It’s not just the Oilers who have loose lips, but guys like Seravelli and Friedman hear everything. Once the word gets out the walls start to crumble. Fans go nuts. Media Center every article around it and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

You only shop one or both of them if you’ve decided to move on. Their names are too big and the rumours will fly and poison the waters even further.

Goalies are voodoo. Elite centres are difficult to find, and the difference between a Cup and a first round exit is almost as much about luck than it is building a 2023 Bruins regular season team.

The bed has been made. The mattress is firm. Sheets are tucked in. Pillows are fluffed, and you’re not buying a new bed anytime soon. You’re just changing the throw pillows looking for the right look.



Two things:

First, if I'm talking Draisaitl, I'm not sending emails. I'm having one-on-one conversations with rival GMs. And if anything comes out, I'm telling people that you get asked about virtually everyone on the team at various points, but you have no intention to trade him. If pressed, I might add that everyone is available at a price, but that for a player like Draisaitl, that price would be very, very high.

Secondly, I don't actually believe that goalies are voodoo. I think there are teams that believe that because they don't have adequate resources spent on developing a better understanding of the position. We've seen teams that have long track records of finding and developing goaltenders. I think it comes down to scouting, player acquisition and then player development. If you have good people in those roles, I think you'd find that like anything else, there's an element of predictability to it.

I mean, you can still always screw it up, if for example your GM calls out your goalie by name in an off-season presser and suggests he is probably not the right solution and then leaks intentionally all the goalies that they almost trade for that summer - ignoring that your goalie was in the top half of starters that year and your team was a lottery-slot organization - but I mean, what's the chance of us doing that again?

By the way, for Skinner, same deal. If I shop him, I'm being very quiet about it, restricting the access within our team to need-to-know only and threatening leakers with dismissal and possible legal action (assuming that most have signed NDAs at some point). And I'm making clear to my rival GM that if it gets out and ends up on 32 Thoughts, I'm going out of my way to burn their organization too, even if it means spreading completely false news to Friedman. We're so used to these things all being public because the Oilers have been the leakiest ship in the NHL for two decades, but it doesn't have to be that way, and it really shouldn't be.


Fair, but I believe other teams inquire all the time about star players. It’s a way easier narrative to spot n saying team X asked and we said they were off limits.

And I respectfully disagree. Goalies are voodoo. Team defence props up the non superstar tenders, which makes up the majority of the league and even then your Bobrovsky’s Binnington’s, Oettiinger’s still struggle. Voodoo.


I completely agree about goalies. There are just way, way too many instances over the years in the NHL where no name guys will all of a sudden go on these unreal runs then just as fast go back to being mediocre at best. AHL guys will come up when injuries hit and look unreal for a short stretch in one season, then the next they can't do it. Career back ups will out of no where play like a vezina starter for a few months. Some team scoops him up, makes him their starter and he never does it again.

Unless you are lucky enough to have that rare guy who is a consistent great starter, you need to try to get 2 guys that can be decent, hope they get hot then ride the wave when it happens. That is why I think we have seen a shift in how teams operate and you aren't seeing teams give big, big money to supposedly good goalies. If you go look at capfriendly, there are a lot of goalies, some of whom people would deem as good are in the 6 and under contract range. Vasilevskiy is at 9.5, then were is a 3.1 mill drop to Gibson at 6.4 and it goes down from there. That's a pretty big gap.

[Updated on: Thu, 25 May 2023 10:40]

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823984 is a reply to message #823974 ]
Thu, 25 May 2023 15:08 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Rutuu is currently offline Rutuu
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Next year's biggest question mark is goaltending. I actually feel we got the good voodoo this year. If the voodoo goes the other way we could easily miss the playoffs.

If we get better voodoo another D that plays D and has a good first pass could push us over the top.

The weight of probabilities flip flops in my mind every day.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823986 is a reply to message #823984 ]
Thu, 25 May 2023 15:42 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Rutuu wrote on Thu, 25 May 2023 15:08

Next year's biggest question mark is goaltending. I actually feel we got the good voodoo this year. If the voodoo goes the other way we could easily miss the playoffs.

If we get better voodoo another D that plays D and has a good first pass could push us over the top.

The weight of probabilities flip flops in my mind every day.

The goaltending will improve. Maybe Skinner doesn't quite put up .914 but in saying that, it's not like his % was off charts good. He was 24th in %. So maintaining close to that I don't think is unrealistic. Campbell had a .888 so unless he's no longer an NHL goalie, he's going to improve a lot. His career average is .910 so if he gets close to that, it's quite a improvement from this past season.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823990 is a reply to message #823986 ]
Thu, 25 May 2023 18:07 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Rutuu is currently offline Rutuu
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A Campbell bounce back is where I feel we have a chance. Once pro's go a few times against an NHL goaltender they tend to get a little more insight. Look at Vegas vs Oettinger, the book is out on the guy with the shots over the shoulders, and he's below 0.900.

Improvement from Skinner is a 50/50 probability with a good chance he's worse. He put up good numbers in the regular season this year, but then sunk back. He had sub 0.900 years in the AHL as well when he was younger. At this point he's not a known commodity and he plays the most important position in the game.

That's where I go back and forth...but it's probably just me. Everyone else seems to be ok with our goaltending, so I'm likely worried over nothing going into an important year for our stars.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823900 is a reply to message #823773 ]
Tue, 23 May 2023 19:10 Go to previous messageGo to next message
inverno76 is currently offline inverno76
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This might sound crazy to some, but when I watch the playoff teams and the just misses that finish outside the dance I don’t see a big difference between them. Dallas, Vegas, Florida and Carolina all have had major setbacks with their current core groups yet here they are competing in the Conference Finals.

I’m sticking to my guns. Edmonton needs tweaks and not a major trade. Oilers have the big pieces in line. Goaltending is iffy and pretty much not going to change so improve your defence. Improve your commitment to team defence. You keep this core together and support it better. Oilers management pissed away years, but we are on the right track.

This is the way.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823908 is a reply to message #823900 ]
Wed, 24 May 2023 09:45 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Rowan Oil Fielding is currently offline Rowan Oil Fielding
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inverno76 wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 02:10

This might sound crazy to some, but when I watch the playoff teams and the just misses that finish outside the dance I don’t see a big difference between them. Dallas, Vegas, Florida and Carolina all have had major setbacks with their current core groups yet here they are competing in the Conference Finals.

I’m sticking to my guns. Edmonton needs tweaks and not a major trade. Oilers have the big pieces in line. Goaltending is iffy and pretty much not going to change so improve your defence. Improve your commitment to team defence. You keep this core together and support it better. Oilers management pissed away years, but we are on the right track.

This is the way.


I hate to say it but a lot of playoff success is luck. Luck that your team has a favorable match up; luck that your team gets hot at the right time; luck that you have the right core group of guys that season, etc etc. Sure you have to be a good to great team to make it to the big dance but after that what you did during the season means bugger all. Once the post season begins it'd anyone's ball to run wild with.

Hail according to this video I just saw the number one seed almost never wins the Stanley Cup, the second seed usually has better success.

https://m.youtube.com/shorts/k55F01qzGwE

https://i.postimg.cc/mZ9GD3V6/php2-CH3-Yf-AM.jpg

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823951 is a reply to message #823773 ]
Wed, 24 May 2023 17:36 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently offline Kr55
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Just to try to illustrate the annoyingness of NHL playoff goaltending. Florida is a nice example of a goalie miracle in progress (that of course could die any moment, by Bobo just falling back to earth, or a Marc-Andre Bergeron moment).

Florida Expected GA/60 5v5 regular season: 2.71 (22nd)
Florida xGA/60 all situations reg season: 3.27 (23rd)
Florida xGA/60 5v5 playoffs: 2.78 (12th out of 16)
Florida xGA/60 All situations playoffs: 3.47 (14th)

Hey, it's kinda the same team, that barely made the playoffs. Bobo and Knight 0.901 sav% in all situations, struggled all year. Some guy named Alex Lyon actually helped them get 5 extra wins over .500 out of the 10 they had to put them in, what a great guy.

What's actually happening?

Florida GA/60 5v5 reg season: 2.51 (16th)
Florida GA/60 all-situation reg season: 3.29 (21st)
Florida GA/60 5v5 playoffs: 1.58 (2nd, NYR 1st)
Florida GA/60 all-situation playoffs: 2.36 (2nd, Car 1st)

Florida playoffs sav% 0.928 (1st)

Same team really. Goalie is saving more than 1 GA per game these playoffs, which is obviously massive because they keep winning by 1 goal while being peppered with shots.


And now we're gonna have to hope Bobo keeps it up to stop the stupid Golden Knights. Just to be annoying, he probably won't and we get to see Stone with his back that probably isn't even injured lift the cup.


This doesn't happen every year of course. But, does happen. Florida had a miracle run before with Vanbiesbrouck that fizzled out at the end.

Just to note, Vegas is similar, getting ~1 GA/60 saved above expected these playoffs, from no-names to boot. Their regular season was better than Florida for sure. 10th in xGA all situations (Oilers 14th). Actual GA/60 10th as well, so basically things evened out for them in the regular season. Playoffs, they are riding a similar wave as Florida. They are also scoring 1 GF/60 more than expected, probably partly thanks to Skinner. So, in the playoffs they have got a +2 goal differential better than expected per 60 mins. PDO 1.068. Bleh... Next highest PDO is 1.028. Last year highest was 1.024 (the Oilers, largely thanks to Marky lol). Tampa 1.046 year before (Vaseline dominance). 1.034 before that. Next bests, 1.032, 1.025, 1.035, 1.036, 1.019, 1.021, 1.021, 1.038 (Quick 2012), 1.039 (Thomas 2011), 1.027.

Kinda more annoyed now. Vegas just having everything go their way these playoffs, luck scoring, luck with a 3rd-6th string goalie going nuts, plus a hand from the league office. Save us Bobo.

[Updated on: Wed, 24 May 2023 18:59]

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823952 is a reply to message #823951 ]
Wed, 24 May 2023 18:15 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Rutuu is currently offline Rutuu
Messages: 144
Registered: March 2011
Location: Brisbane
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Kr55 wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 17:36

Just to try to illustrate the annoyingness of NHL playoff goaltending. Florida is a nice example of a goalie miracle in progress (that of course could die any moment, by Bobo just falling back to earth, or a Marc-Andre Bergeron moment).

Florida Expected GA/60 5v5 regular season: 2.71 (22nd)
Florida xGA/60 all situations reg season: 3.27 (23rd)
Florida xGA/60 5v5 playoffs: 2.78 (12th out of 16)
Florida xGA/60 All situations playoffs: 3.47 (14th)

Hey, it's kinda the same team, that barely made the playoffs. Bobo and Knight 0.901 sav% in all situations, struggled all year. Some guy named Alex Lyon actually helped them get 5 extra wins over .500 out of the 10 they had to put them in, what a great guy.

What's actually happening?

Florida GA/60 5v5 reg season: 2.51 (16th)
Florida GA/60 all-situation reg season: 3.29 (21st)
Florida GA/60 5v5 playoffs: 1.58 (2nd, NYR 1st)
Florida GA/60 all-situation playoffs: 2.36 (2nd, Car 1st)

Florida playoffs sav% 0.928 (1st)

Same team really. Goalie is saving more than 1 GA per game these playoffs, which is obviously massive because they keep winning by 1 goal while being peppered with shots.


And now we're gonna have to hope Bobo keeps it up to stop the stupid Golden Knights. Just to be annoying, he probably won't and we get to see Stone with his back that probably isn't even injured lift the cup.


This doesn't happen every year of course. But, does happen. Florida had a miracle run before with Vanbiesbrouck that fizzled out at the end.

Just to note, Vegas is similar, getting ~1 GA/60 saved above expected these playoffs, from no-names to boot. Their regular season was better than Florida for sure. 10th in xGA all situations (Oilers 14th). Actual GA/60 10th as well, so basically things evened out for them in the regular season. Playoffs, they are riding a similar wave as Florida. They are also scoring 1 GF/60 more than expected, probably partly thanks to Skinner. So, in the playoffs they have got a +2 goal differential better than expected per 60 mins. PDO 1.068. Bleh... Next highest PDO is 1.028. Last year highest was 1.024 (the Oilers lol). Tampa 1.046 year before (Vaseline dominance). 1.034 before that. Next bests, 1.032, 1.025, 1.035, 1.036, 1.019, 1.021, 1.021, 1.038 (Quick 2012), 1.039 (Thomas 2011), 1.027.

Kinda more annoyed now. Vegas just having everything go their way these playoffs, luck scoring, luck with a 3rd-6th string goalie going nuts, plus a hand from the league office. Save us Bobo.


The path to win was so wide open this year. Frustrating that we stubbed our toe. I really thought it would've been us that turned Cinderella back into her step sisters maid.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823970 is a reply to message #823952 ]
Thu, 25 May 2023 09:42 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Dragon_Matt is currently offline Dragon_Matt
Messages: 766
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Location: edmonton
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How fun would it be to watch Stone throw his back out lifting the cup though?

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823993 is a reply to message #823970 ]
Thu, 25 May 2023 23:06 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Xombie is currently offline Xombie
Messages: 454
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RD said you can't fleece some team trying to put themselves over the top. He's right.

But you can fleece someone who's currently at the bottom.

Target a team say, on the eastern seaboard. That way Drai's far away from our division. Maybe one sandwiched amongst the most competitive sports markets in North America. An organization so lost in the desert they took a side trip to the bad lands to dig up an old fossil coach to instill team "culture". Can you guess the organization I'm hinting at? Some team that wears orange so Leon will feel at home. (a fine colour for a sports team, not a political party) Enough hints?

It's Philly! I know Leon has to approve the move, but the Flyers would lose their minds to obtain a big prototypical Philadelphia Lindros Forsberg type. Pray the Flyers don't flip him to L.A. like Kurri.

The deal:

To Philly - Leon Draisaitl and Jack Cambell

To E Town - Ivan Provorov, Travis Konecny, Carter Hart and a few picks. Maybe.

We get the super Sherwood Park tandem in net. Tell them there's no starter, win you're in. RD gets his modern NHL tandem.

Adam or someone will bring up the P.R. challenge that comes with Provorov. Valid concern but this ups the chances Philly does this deal. Ceci can then float away to anywhere.

Konecny fills Draisaitl's center position. Defensively responsible center allowing Nuge to be a full-time winger.

Then all that remains is to plan the Stanley Cup parade whilst doing a handstand from atop the talus dome!

Honestly, I don't care enough to spend time finding out if the cap hits work. Sorry!

Bob Marley and the (Hartford) Wailers.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823996 is a reply to message #823993 ]
Fri, 26 May 2023 08:25 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently offline RDOilerfan
Messages: 3908
Registered: January 2016
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Xombie wrote on Thu, 25 May 2023 23:06

RD said you can't fleece some team trying to put themselves over the top. He's right.

But you can fleece someone who's currently at the bottom.

Target a team say, on the eastern seaboard. That way Drai's far away from our division. Maybe one sandwiched amongst the most competitive sports markets in North America. An organization so lost in the desert they took a side trip to the bad lands to dig up an old fossil coach to instill team "culture". Can you guess the organization I'm hinting at? Some team that wears orange so Leon will feel at home. (a fine colour for a sports team, not a political party) Enough hints?

It's Philly! I know Leon has to approve the move, but the Flyers would lose their minds to obtain a big prototypical Philadelphia Lindros Forsberg type. Pray the Flyers don't flip him to L.A. like Kurri.

The deal:

To Philly - Leon Draisaitl and Jack Cambell

To E Town - Ivan Provorov, Travis Konecny, Carter Hart and a few picks. Maybe.

We get the super Sherwood Park tandem in net. Tell them there's no starter, win you're in. RD gets his modern NHL tandem.

Adam or someone will bring up the P.R. challenge that comes with Provorov. Valid concern but this ups the chances Philly does this deal. Ceci can then float away to anywhere.

Konecny fills Draisaitl's center position. Defensively responsible center allowing Nuge to be a full-time winger.

Then all that remains is to plan the Stanley Cup parade whilst doing a handstand from atop the talus dome!

Honestly, I don't care enough to spend time finding out if the cap hits work. Sorry!

The Oilers would be taking on almost 3 mill more in cap.

You'd be bringing in a very underperforming dman who is a locker room cancer. Plus he's a left shot. The Oilers have Nurse, Ekholm, Kulak and Broberg on the left side. They don't need a left shot, the could use an upgrade of Ceci on the right side.

Konecny is a right winger, not a center. So that means you have to play Nuge at second line center and he's proven year after year he's a better winger than center.


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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823997 is a reply to message #823996 ]
Fri, 26 May 2023 08:28 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently offline Kr55
Messages: 10777
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton
6 Cups
RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 26 May 2023 08:25

Xombie wrote on Thu, 25 May 2023 23:06

RD said you can't fleece some team trying to put themselves over the top. He's right.

But you can fleece someone who's currently at the bottom.

Target a team say, on the eastern seaboard. That way Drai's far away from our division. Maybe one sandwiched amongst the most competitive sports markets in North America. An organization so lost in the desert they took a side trip to the bad lands to dig up an old fossil coach to instill team "culture". Can you guess the organization I'm hinting at? Some team that wears orange so Leon will feel at home. (a fine colour for a sports team, not a political party) Enough hints?

It's Philly! I know Leon has to approve the move, but the Flyers would lose their minds to obtain a big prototypical Philadelphia Lindros Forsberg type. Pray the Flyers don't flip him to L.A. like Kurri.

The deal:

To Philly - Leon Draisaitl and Jack Cambell

To E Town - Ivan Provorov, Travis Konecny, Carter Hart and a few picks. Maybe.

We get the super Sherwood Park tandem in net. Tell them there's no starter, win you're in. RD gets his modern NHL tandem.

Adam or someone will bring up the P.R. challenge that comes with Provorov. Valid concern but this ups the chances Philly does this deal. Ceci can then float away to anywhere.

Konecny fills Draisaitl's center position. Defensively responsible center allowing Nuge to be a full-time winger.

Then all that remains is to plan the Stanley Cup parade whilst doing a handstand from atop the talus dome!

Honestly, I don't care enough to spend time finding out if the cap hits work. Sorry!

The Oilers would be taking on almost 3 mill more in cap.

You'd be bringing in a very underperforming dman who is a locker room cancer. Plus he's a left shot. The Oilers have Nurse, Ekholm, Kulak and Broberg on the left side. They don't need a left shot, the could use an upgrade of Ceci on the right side.

Konecny is a right winger, not a center. So that means you have to play Nuge at second line center and he's proven year after year he's a better winger than center.



Hart would be a massive gamble too. Has been as streaky as Campbell. And would be essentially doubling down (or would it be more like septupling by now?) on Dustin Schwartz because that's one of his summer regulars. Jarry, Schwartz's other headline summer regular, has been all over the place too.

Not sure Philly can fill our needs if we're looking for a blockbuster.

[Updated on: Fri, 26 May 2023 08:31]

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823998 is a reply to message #823997 ]
Fri, 26 May 2023 08:46 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently offline RDOilerfan
Messages: 3908
Registered: January 2016
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Kr55 wrote on Fri, 26 May 2023 08:28

RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 26 May 2023 08:25

Xombie wrote on Thu, 25 May 2023 23:06

RD said you can't fleece some team trying to put themselves over the top. He's right.

But you can fleece someone who's currently at the bottom.

Target a team say, on the eastern seaboard. That way Drai's far away from our division. Maybe one sandwiched amongst the most competitive sports markets in North America. An organization so lost in the desert they took a side trip to the bad lands to dig up an old fossil coach to instill team "culture". Can you guess the organization I'm hinting at? Some team that wears orange so Leon will feel at home. (a fine colour for a sports team, not a political party) Enough hints?

It's Philly! I know Leon has to approve the move, but the Flyers would lose their minds to obtain a big prototypical Philadelphia Lindros Forsberg type. Pray the Flyers don't flip him to L.A. like Kurri.

The deal:

To Philly - Leon Draisaitl and Jack Cambell

To E Town - Ivan Provorov, Travis Konecny, Carter Hart and a few picks. Maybe.

We get the super Sherwood Park tandem in net. Tell them there's no starter, win you're in. RD gets his modern NHL tandem.

Adam or someone will bring up the P.R. challenge that comes with Provorov. Valid concern but this ups the chances Philly does this deal. Ceci can then float away to anywhere.

Konecny fills Draisaitl's center position. Defensively responsible center allowing Nuge to be a full-time winger.

Then all that remains is to plan the Stanley Cup parade whilst doing a handstand from atop the talus dome!

Honestly, I don't care enough to spend time finding out if the cap hits work. Sorry!

The Oilers would be taking on almost 3 mill more in cap.

You'd be bringing in a very underperforming dman who is a locker room cancer. Plus he's a left shot. The Oilers have Nurse, Ekholm, Kulak and Broberg on the left side. They don't need a left shot, the could use an upgrade of Ceci on the right side.

Konecny is a right winger, not a center. So that means you have to play Nuge at second line center and he's proven year after year he's a better winger than center.



Hart would be a massive gamble too. Has been as streaky as Campbell. And would be essentially doubling down (or would it be more like septupling by now?) on Dustin Schwartz because that's one of his summer regulars. Jarry, Schwartz's other headline summer regular, has been all over the place too.

Not sure Philly can fill our needs if we're looking for a blockbuster.

If you are trading Drai, you have to get back a legit very good center back that comes in cheaper. They can not trade Drai and have Nuge as their #2. The drop off is just way, way too much. Nuge is a 20-25 goal, 50 pts center. He's got almost a decade of stats to back that up. He's never been able to drive a line, he's never been a gut that elevates his wingers, he needs a winger to elevate him. You'd be giving up 25-30 goals and 70 pts at the center position. Just way too much. If you are trading Drai, you need a 30-70 guy that can win draws and be on both special teams, plus a winger that makes of the rest of the points.

When you are trading a top 5 player on a dirt cheap contract, I don't see a trade where the Oilers come out being better after.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823999 is a reply to message #823998 ]
Fri, 26 May 2023 09:54 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Dragon_Matt is currently offline Dragon_Matt
Messages: 766
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There is no trade where we come out better. The goal is to make the best of a bad situation. Trading Drai, you lose. Drai walking away, you lose MOUNTAINS.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #824001 is a reply to message #823999 ]
Fri, 26 May 2023 10:54 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently offline RDOilerfan
Messages: 3908
Registered: January 2016
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Dragon_Matt wrote on Fri, 26 May 2023 09:54

There is no trade where we come out better. The goal is to make the best of a bad situation. Trading Drai, you lose. Drai walking away, you lose MOUNTAINS.

My feelings as well but some in here think you can't win with McD and Leon. The team is already very good, I think if you tweak the roster a little bit, you have the makings of a great team.

Top 6: They have 5 legit very good to elite top 6 guys.
McD, Drai, Hyman, Kane, Nuge.

They need 1 more guy to be a 6 and with that crew, he doesn't even have to be a high end guy. They already have 2 50+ goal, 100+ pt guys, and 3 other guys capable of being around 30 goals and 60 pts. That's more than enough scoring. All they need is a guy who can score more than Yamo. Yamo had 10 goals, 25 pts. So we aren't talking another 30 goal scorer here. Preferably a right winger and a guy a bit bigger than Yamo so that player is a bit more durable, isn't a disaster defensively and capable of high teens and 40 pts. If you can get more, great. I don't think that's an impossible find. That guy could even been Holloway for all I know.

They already have a guy able to play as your 3rd line center which is the key to the bottom 6 in McLeod. He needs to round a few things out but he should have the tools. Asking Holloway to be in the top 6 is a tall ask so I see him slotted as a 3rd liner this year. I think Kostin will be back. They probably need to make a spot for Lavoie as he needs wavers. So there is 3 of your bottom 6 looked after with good players, 4 if you count Lavoie. You have Foegele if you want to keep him, he's a good bottom 6. Ryan will be back as the extra taking Shore's spot. So then you need to fill in a few others. Maybe that is Bjustad if he isn't too expensive. Janmark was solid and I would take him back at the same price. Or you bring in a few others. There are goign to be guys you can bring in at Janmark money that are decent.

Defense you have the makings of mostly a decent defense.
Nurse, Eklhom and Bouchard are all legit good top 4 dmen. Ceci year 1 showed he can be decent. Year 2 he struggled but according to Stauffer yesterday, he had a groin injury all year. I pulled my groin at the gym a few years back. It was rough and limiting. I had to be careful all the time. I needed to basically do nothing for a month but I didn't and it took forever to heal. Ideally you get an upgrade on Ceci but if you don't, I don't think he will be as bad as this year.
Kulak is a very good #5. You got Broberg needing time. Desharnais I think will continue to get better and at worst is a solid #6.

So you don't need to blow up the defense. Ideally you need a slight tweak to Ceci.

Goaltending. Skinner was good for the most part, wobbled a bit in the playoffs but his numbers weren't crazy good. He was 24th in save percentage. I don't think it's unrealistic to think he can't give you close to that next season. Campbell had a disaster of a season. He is a career .910 goalie and was .888 this year. Unless he's no longer an NHL goalie, he will be a lot better. IF he is able to get close to his career average which is I would say mid range NHL goaltending, the Oilers goaltennding should be just fine.

SO I look at the roster and with a few minor tweaks, I think they are right there.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #824000 is a reply to message #823998 ]
Fri, 26 May 2023 10:24 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Goose is currently offline Goose
Messages: 1098
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RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 26 May 2023 07:46

Kr55 wrote on Fri, 26 May 2023 08:28

RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 26 May 2023 08:25

Xombie wrote on Thu, 25 May 2023 23:06

RD said you can't fleece some team trying to put themselves over the top. He's right.

But you can fleece someone who's currently at the bottom.

Target a team say, on the eastern seaboard. That way Drai's far away from our division. Maybe one sandwiched amongst the most competitive sports markets in North America. An organization so lost in the desert they took a side trip to the bad lands to dig up an old fossil coach to instill team "culture". Can you guess the organization I'm hinting at? Some team that wears orange so Leon will feel at home. (a fine colour for a sports team, not a political party) Enough hints?

It's Philly! I know Leon has to approve the move, but the Flyers would lose their minds to obtain a big prototypical Philadelphia Lindros Forsberg type. Pray the Flyers don't flip him to L.A. like Kurri.

The deal:

To Philly - Leon Draisaitl and Jack Cambell

To E Town - Ivan Provorov, Travis Konecny, Carter Hart and a few picks. Maybe.

We get the super Sherwood Park tandem in net. Tell them there's no starter, win you're in. RD gets his modern NHL tandem.

Adam or someone will bring up the P.R. challenge that comes with Provorov. Valid concern but this ups the chances Philly does this deal. Ceci can then float away to anywhere.

Konecny fills Draisaitl's center position. Defensively responsible center allowing Nuge to be a full-time winger.

Then all that remains is to plan the Stanley Cup parade whilst doing a handstand from atop the talus dome!

Honestly, I don't care enough to spend time finding out if the cap hits work. Sorry!

The Oilers would be taking on almost 3 mill more in cap.

You'd be bringing in a very underperforming dman who is a locker room cancer. Plus he's a left shot. The Oilers have Nurse, Ekholm, Kulak and Broberg on the left side. They don't need a left shot, the could use an upgrade of Ceci on the right side.

Konecny is a right winger, not a center. So that means you have to play Nuge at second line center and he's proven year after year he's a better winger than center.



Hart would be a massive gamble too. Has been as streaky as Campbell. And would be essentially doubling down (or would it be more like septupling by now?) on Dustin Schwartz because that's one of his summer regulars. Jarry, Schwartz's other headline summer regular, has been all over the place too.

Not sure Philly can fill our needs if we're looking for a blockbuster.

If you are trading Drai, you have to get back a legit very good center back that comes in cheaper. They can not trade Drai and have Nuge as their #2. The drop off is just way, way too much. Nuge is a 20-25 goal, 50 pts center. He's got almost a decade of stats to back that up. He's never been able to drive a line, he's never been a gut that elevates his wingers, he needs a winger to elevate him. You'd be giving up 25-30 goals and 70 pts at the center position. Just way too much. If you are trading Drai, you need a 30-70 guy that can win draws and be on both special teams, plus a winger that makes of the rest of the points.

When you are trading a top 5 player on a dirt cheap contract, I don't see a trade where the Oilers come out being better after.


I don't think that Hart and Provorov move the needle enough for me to think that's a good deal (and I'm not advocating for moving Draisaitl generally), but I also don't buy that you need to have a 30/70 guy to replace Draisaitl. First, there's no rule that says you need to make up all of Draisaitl's offence. That guy is probably not going to save you enough on the cap to make it worthwhile anyways, (unless you're getting crazy value somewhere else in the deal). Second, you can bring back less in offence if you also manage to prevent more goals (which is where having a good defenceman or goalie as part of the package makes sense).

But look at the 2nd line centers on the 4 Conference finalists, none of them are remotely 30/70 guys:

Chandler Stephenson - 16 goals / 65 pts

Tyler Sequin (I think technically Domi plays center on that line but I'll give you that Seguin is probably the driver) - 21 goals / 50 points

Jesper Kotkaniemi - 18 goals / 43 pts

Sam Bennett - 16 goals / 40 pts

And none of those teams have the benefit of having Connor McDavid as their 1st line center.

McDavid and Draisaitl had 281 points this year. Is there another team with their top 2 centers within 100 points of that? To be fair, McDavid and Drai did play together a decent amount and a lot of their points were on the PP but I think that Colorado was next, with their top 2 forwards having 216 points.

Edmonton could easily lose some offence out of their top 2 if they could find a way to not be mediocre in GA.

If I were going to move Draisaitl, I'd want an established top 6 forward, a top 2 defenceman, preferably a RHD (legit top 1's are going to be too expensive), and at least 2 high end prospects / 1st round picks.

Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #824002 is a reply to message #824000 ]
Fri, 26 May 2023 11:05 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently offline RDOilerfan
Messages: 3908
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Goose wrote on Fri, 26 May 2023 10:24

RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 26 May 2023 07:46

Kr55 wrote on Fri, 26 May 2023 08:28

RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 26 May 2023 08:25

Xombie wrote on Thu, 25 May 2023 23:06

RD said you can't fleece some team trying to put themselves over the top. He's right.

But you can fleece someone who's currently at the bottom.

Target a team say, on the eastern seaboard. That way Drai's far away from our division. Maybe one sandwiched amongst the most competitive sports markets in North America. An organization so lost in the desert they took a side trip to the bad lands to dig up an old fossil coach to instill team "culture". Can you guess the organization I'm hinting at? Some team that wears orange so Leon will feel at home. (a fine colour for a sports team, not a political party) Enough hints?

It's Philly! I know Leon has to approve the move, but the Flyers would lose their minds to obtain a big prototypical Philadelphia Lindros Forsberg type. Pray the Flyers don't flip him to L.A. like Kurri.

The deal:

To Philly - Leon Draisaitl and Jack Cambell

To E Town - Ivan Provorov, Travis Konecny, Carter Hart and a few picks. Maybe.

We get the super Sherwood Park tandem in net. Tell them there's no starter, win you're in. RD gets his modern NHL tandem.

Adam or someone will bring up the P.R. challenge that comes with Provorov. Valid concern but this ups the chances Philly does this deal. Ceci can then float away to anywhere.

Konecny fills Draisaitl's center position. Defensively responsible center allowing Nuge to be a full-time winger.

Then all that remains is to plan the Stanley Cup parade whilst doing a handstand from atop the talus dome!

Honestly, I don't care enough to spend time finding out if the cap hits work. Sorry!

The Oilers would be taking on almost 3 mill more in cap.

You'd be bringing in a very underperforming dman who is a locker room cancer. Plus he's a left shot. The Oilers have Nurse, Ekholm, Kulak and Broberg on the left side. They don't need a left shot, the could use an upgrade of Ceci on the right side.

Konecny is a right winger, not a center. So that means you have to play Nuge at second line center and he's proven year after year he's a better winger than center.



Hart would be a massive gamble too. Has been as streaky as Campbell. And would be essentially doubling down (or would it be more like septupling by now?) on Dustin Schwartz because that's one of his summer regulars. Jarry, Schwartz's other headline summer regular, has been all over the place too.

Not sure Philly can fill our needs if we're looking for a blockbuster.

If you are trading Drai, you have to get back a legit very good center back that comes in cheaper. They can not trade Drai and have Nuge as their #2. The drop off is just way, way too much. Nuge is a 20-25 goal, 50 pts center. He's got almost a decade of stats to back that up. He's never been able to drive a line, he's never been a gut that elevates his wingers, he needs a winger to elevate him. You'd be giving up 25-30 goals and 70 pts at the center position. Just way too much. If you are trading Drai, you need a 30-70 guy that can win draws and be on both special teams, plus a winger that makes of the rest of the points.

When you are trading a top 5 player on a dirt cheap contract, I don't see a trade where the Oilers come out being better after.


I don't think that Hart and Provorov move the needle enough for me to think that's a good deal (and I'm not advocating for moving Draisaitl generally), but I also don't buy that you need to have a 30/70 guy to replace Draisaitl. First, there's no rule that says you need to make up all of Draisaitl's offence. That guy is probably not going to save you enough on the cap to make it worthwhile anyways, (unless you're getting crazy value somewhere else in the deal). Second, you can bring back less in offence if you also manage to prevent more goals (which is where having a good defenceman or goalie as part of the package makes sense).

But look at the 2nd line centers on the 4 Conference finalists, none of them are remotely 30/70 guys:

Chandler Stephenson - 16 goals / 65 pts

Tyler Sequin (I think technically Domi plays center on that line but I'll give you that Seguin is probably the driver) - 21 goals / 50 points

Jesper Kotkaniemi - 18 goals / 43 pts

Sam Bennett - 16 goals / 40 pts

And none of those teams have the benefit of having Connor McDavid as their 1st line center.

McDavid and Draisaitl had 281 points this year. Is there another team with their top 2 centers within 100 points of that? To be fair, McDavid and Drai did play together a decent amount and a lot of their points were on the PP but I think that Colorado was next, with their top 2 forwards having 216 points.

Edmonton could easily lose some offence out of their top 2 if they could find a way to not be mediocre in GA.

If I were going to move Draisaitl, I'd want an established top 6 forward, a top 2 defenceman, preferably a RHD (legit top 1's are going to be too expensive), and at least 2 high end prospects / 1st round picks.

3 of the teams you pulled guys from play very good team defense in Vegas, Carolina and Dallas. Dallas has an excellent goalie. If you look at Dallas this playoff, Oettinger hasn't been very good and they are about to get bounced pretty easily.

Everyone's darlings, the Panthers wouldn't have made the playoffs if the Pens won 1 game. They played Chicago and the Jackets in their last 2 games, those 2 were at the bottom of the league. The Hawks with basically an AHL team beat the Pens on home ice 5-1.

So if you are replacing Drai with a guy can isn't even scoring 20 goals, you just removed over 30 goals from the Oilers line up. Who's making that up? McD already scored 64. Hyman scored 36. I don't think he has more in him and if anything, I think he probably scores a little less next year. Nuge score 37 this year. I don't see him scoring as many next year. Kane can score more just because he will be in the line up healthy. So in my opinion, you can't just subtract over 30 goals from your line up and not have it impact you on top of others naturally regressing at least some.

So in order to have a chance to succeed taking away that much offense, the Oilers will have to completely change how their entire team plays from top to bottom, McD included and turn into a much more defensive team. I just don't think that's realistic.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #824003 is a reply to message #824002 ]
Fri, 26 May 2023 11:15 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Goose is currently offline Goose
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RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 26 May 2023 10:05


3 of the teams you pulled guys from play very good team defense in Vegas, Carolina and Dallas. Dallas has an excellent goalie. If you look at Dallas this playoff, Oettinger hasn't been very good and they are about to get bounced pretty easily.

Everyone's darlings, the Panthers wouldn't have made the playoffs if the Pens won 1 game. They played Chicago and the Jackets in their last 2 games, those 2 were at the bottom of the league. The Hawks with basically an AHL team beat the Pens on home ice 5-1.

So if you are replacing Drai with a guy can isn't even scoring 20 goals, you just removed over 30 goals from the Oilers line up. Who's making that up? McD already scored 64. Hyman scored 36. I don't think he has more in him and if anything, I think he probably scores a little less next year. Nuge score 37 this year. I don't see him scoring as many next year. Kane can score more just because he will be in the line up healthy. So in my opinion, you can't just subtract over 30 goals from your line up and not have it impact you on top of others naturally regressing at least some.

So in order to have a chance to succeed taking away that much offense, the Oilers will have to completely change how their entire team plays from top to bottom, McD included and turn into a much more defensive team. I just don't think that's realistic.


Tell that to the 21/22 Oilers. They only scored 285 goals (40 less than this year's team), and they made the conference finals.

Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #824005 is a reply to message #824003 ]
Fri, 26 May 2023 12:21 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Goose wrote on Fri, 26 May 2023 11:15

RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 26 May 2023 10:05


3 of the teams you pulled guys from play very good team defense in Vegas, Carolina and Dallas. Dallas has an excellent goalie. If you look at Dallas this playoff, Oettinger hasn't been very good and they are about to get bounced pretty easily.

Everyone's darlings, the Panthers wouldn't have made the playoffs if the Pens won 1 game. They played Chicago and the Jackets in their last 2 games, those 2 were at the bottom of the league. The Hawks with basically an AHL team beat the Pens on home ice 5-1.

So if you are replacing Drai with a guy can isn't even scoring 20 goals, you just removed over 30 goals from the Oilers line up. Who's making that up? McD already scored 64. Hyman scored 36. I don't think he has more in him and if anything, I think he probably scores a little less next year. Nuge score 37 this year. I don't see him scoring as many next year. Kane can score more just because he will be in the line up healthy. So in my opinion, you can't just subtract over 30 goals from your line up and not have it impact you on top of others naturally regressing at least some.

So in order to have a chance to succeed taking away that much offense, the Oilers will have to completely change how their entire team plays from top to bottom, McD included and turn into a much more defensive team. I just don't think that's realistic.


Tell that to the 21/22 Oilers. They only scored 285 goals (40 less than this year's team), and they made the conference finals.

Use whatever argument you want. Under no circumstances will I ever think the Oilers will ever be a better team by trading Drai while he has prime hockey left in him. I saw in your post you said you aren't advocating but you didn't say you were against it. When he is done his career, he will easily score over 500 goals, probably flirt with 600. He has 306 now and he's not 28 yet. He will probably score over 1400 pts, probably more. He has 744 now. S0 we are talking he will probably end up being in the top 30 all time in NHL scoring which is probably worthy of hall of fame and considering he is European and those numbers would put him way up there for all time European born players for scoring, he would make it in if he scored that much. So in my opinion, you don't ever trade hall of fame players in the prime of their careers with the idea you will get better. Circumstances might make it so you don't have a choice but you don't do it on willingly on purpose.

[Updated on: Fri, 26 May 2023 12:23]

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #824008 is a reply to message #824005 ]
Fri, 26 May 2023 13:36 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Mike is currently offline Mike
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RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 26 May 2023 15:21

Use whatever argument you want. Under no circumstances will I ever think the Oilers will ever be a better team by trading Drai while he has prime hockey left in him.


I don't understand the ostrich approach. Like sticking your fingers in your ears going "lalalalalala". Comments like this one or "you have your opinion and I have mine and it will never change" from another thread - are you that afraid of being wrong and/or taking in new information that will force you to reevaluate your position?

I don't see a realistic trade that involves Draisaitl that I would be OK with. I'm with you on that. But let's say the Blackhawks call and offer something stupid like Bedard and Seth Jones @50% for Draisaitl and Ceci? Or the Sabres offer something like Dahlin and Cozens or Thompson? Again, I don't see a realistic trade that I would be OK with for him, but I wouldn't say "under no circumstances". GMs have been known to get stupid at times (look no further than that ridiculous Jeannot trade)

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #824011 is a reply to message #824008 ]
Fri, 26 May 2023 14:35 Go to previous messageGo to next message
inverno76 is currently offline inverno76
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Mike wrote on Fri, 26 May 2023 13:36

RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 26 May 2023 15:21

Use whatever argument you want. Under no circumstances will I ever think the Oilers will ever be a better team by trading Drai while he has prime hockey left in him.


I don't understand the ostrich approach. Like sticking your fingers in your ears going "lalalalalala". Comments like this one or "you have your opinion and I have mine and it will never change" from another thread - are you that afraid of being wrong and/or taking in new information that will force you to reevaluate your position?

I don't see a realistic trade that involves Draisaitl that I would be OK with. I'm with you on that. But let's say the Blackhawks call and offer something stupid like Bedard and Seth Jones @50% for Draisaitl and Ceci? Or the Sabres offer something like Dahlin and Cozens or Thompson? Again, I don't see a realistic trade that I would be OK with for him, but I wouldn't say "under no circumstances". GMs have been known to get stupid at times (look no further than that ridiculous Jeannot trade)



Anyone and everyone is available for the right price, but it's likely unrealistic in a cap world. Imagine a Lindros trade, and how that turned around the Colorado franchise!

In the cap era, I just do not see how you can trade away a superstar that wants to stay with an organization. Trading teams have to be in a very specific place in their worlds. Have the assets to move, cap flexibility, team structure and player fit. I think it is a pipe dream, but you should never close a door on any idea. Often our greatest discoveries came from a totally different direction than everyone else was looking.

In the meantime I think my Draisaitl and McDavid jerseys will not be retros any time soon. "Knock on wood".

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #824042 is a reply to message #824008 ]
Tue, 30 May 2023 14:13 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Mike wrote on Fri, 26 May 2023 13:36

RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 26 May 2023 15:21

Use whatever argument you want. Under no circumstances will I ever think the Oilers will ever be a better team by trading Drai while he has prime hockey left in him.


I don't understand the ostrich approach. Like sticking your fingers in your ears going "lalalalalala". Comments like this one or "you have your opinion and I have mine and it will never change" from another thread - are you that afraid of being wrong and/or taking in new information that will force you to reevaluate your position?

I don't see a realistic trade that involves Draisaitl that I would be OK with. I'm with you on that. But let's say the Blackhawks call and offer something stupid like Bedard and Seth Jones @50% for Draisaitl and Ceci? Or the Sabres offer something like Dahlin and Cozens or Thompson? Again, I don't see a realistic trade that I would be OK with for him, but I wouldn't say "under no circumstances". GMs have been known to get stupid at times (look no further than that ridiculous Jeannot trade)

Because I think trading Drai would be a really stupid idea and I am a person who only deals with logical things.

Drai is pretty much a lock to be a 50+ goal, 115+ pt player signed for 8.5 mill. At 27, he's probably capable of putting up similar numbers for easily the next 6 yrs. He will most definitely put up those numbers for the last 2 years of his current contract. On top of that, he produces a TON in the playoffs. He's big, strong, can be physical, skates really well, plays both special teams, elite, elite skill. Makes any linemate better. He wins draws. He pretty much does it all. He's easily a top 5 player in the NHL. AND he only makes 8.5 mill. He's probably underpaid by 4 mill easily.

You can't replace what he does for that price point. So you are 100% correct, I am sticking my fingers in my ears because if you are going to trade Drai, you better be damn sure you make your team better and I don't see how. I just out lined what all he does. In my opinion, the only player better is McDavid. I wouldn't even trade Matthews straight up for Drai because Drai is a better player and Matthews costs 3.1 mill more.

So if you can show me a trade that makes the Oilers better able to win the cup right now without taking on more than 8.5 mill, then I will listen.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #824044 is a reply to message #824042 ]
Tue, 30 May 2023 14:37 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Dragon_Matt is currently offline Dragon_Matt
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so if trading Drai is stupid no matter what, you'd let him walk if he told you he refused to re-sign?

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #824045 is a reply to message #824044 ]
Tue, 30 May 2023 14:46 Go to previous messageGo to next message
inverno76 is currently offline inverno76
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Dragon_Matt wrote on Tue, 30 May 2023 14:37

so if trading Drai is stupid no matter what, you'd let him walk if he told you he refused to re-sign?


Isn’t that a completely different question?

I am under the premise that the original thought was trading him when the team had full control. In both scenarios the Oilers lose, but in the second scenario you can justify the loss.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #824046 is a reply to message #824045 ]
Tue, 30 May 2023 14:49 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Dragon_Matt is currently offline Dragon_Matt
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This conversation started with, 'what happens if he doesn't want to re-sign' because his contract will be over after 24-25. Would you keep him effectively as a playoff rental, or would you trade him?
Nobody has claimed any trade here would make us better, and I don't think anyone believes trading him actually does make us better. But do you make the best 'losing' trade you can, or hold on and have him walk. What trade makes sense if you are going to trade him.


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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #824050 is a reply to message #824046 ]
Tue, 30 May 2023 16:18 Go to previous messageGo to next message
inverno76 is currently offline inverno76
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Dragon_Matt wrote on Tue, 30 May 2023 14:49

This conversation started with, 'what happens if he doesn't want to re-sign' because his contract will be over after 24-25. Would you keep him effectively as a playoff rental, or would you trade him?
Nobody has claimed any trade here would make us better, and I don't think anyone believes trading him actually does make us better. But do you make the best 'losing' trade you can, or hold on and have him walk. What trade makes sense if you are going to trade him.



If Leon does not want to sign then you keep that quiet, confer with McDavid and trade him. It will get out if Edmonton is doing their job and actively shopping him to all the 31 remaining teams regardless of his 10 team No Trade List, but you start the talks without fanfare. You probably have 3 phone calls and you are screwed. You lose the trade, but you shop him to everyone and sell Draisaitl on the idea. It's a no-win situation.

(This will not happen and I do not like putting these thoughts into the Oiler'verse). Oscargasm aka Tracey Lane will be the first to person to drop the news to us.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #824048 is a reply to message #824044 ]
Tue, 30 May 2023 15:57 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Dragon_Matt wrote on Tue, 30 May 2023 14:37

so if trading Drai is stupid no matter what, you'd let him walk if he told you he refused to re-sign?

The conversation started when PI came out early on in this thread and said the Oilers aren't close to winning the cup and they need to trade Drai. So that is a full stop for me because if the goal is to win the cup hopefully next year, there is no package in my opinion that makes the Oilers a better team to win the cup in the next 2 seasons given what Drai does and how good he is for what little he makes.

Now if after next season, you go to Drai and ask him what's his number and he comes back and says I plan on seeing what's out there. That's a whole different situation. That says he's probably gone after the season so you have to make a choice. You get what you can for him prior to the season or you ride him out, hope you win a cup then let him walk. If you have to trade Drai, I think you lose the trade no matter what but you shouldn't be jumping the gun now and trading him if you are trying to win now.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #824047 is a reply to message #824042 ]
Tue, 30 May 2023 15:04 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi is currently offline CrusaderPi
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We all know what Draisaitl does. That's not the point of the exercise. You're right, the Oilers can't replace Draisaitl because no one does what he does, except maybe Ovechkin. But the Oilers don't need to replace him. They need to change who they are. They've tried being a top heavy pp scoring machine that cheats for offense to outscore their problems. It hasn't worked. Logically management has too look for a reason why they've won less than 16 games over the last four playoffs runs with what McDavid and Draisaitl decide. It takes 16 win in just one playoff to win a Stanley Cup.

Matty Berniers, Jamie Oleksiak, and Eli Tolvanen would at least make me think about it.

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #824049 is a reply to message #824047 ]
Tue, 30 May 2023 16:01 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently offline RDOilerfan
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CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 30 May 2023 15:04

We all know what Draisaitl does. That's not the point of the exercise. You're right, the Oilers can't replace Draisaitl because no one does what he does, except maybe Ovechkin. But the Oilers don't need to replace him. They need to change who they are. They've tried being a top heavy pp scoring machine that cheats for offense to outscore their problems. It hasn't worked. Logically management has too look for a reason why they've won less than 16 games over the last four playoffs runs with what McDavid and Draisaitl decide. It takes 16 win in just one playoff to win a Stanley Cup.

Matty Berniers, Jamie Oleksiak, and Eli Tolvanen would at least make me think about it.

For Matt and Inverno, this is where my comment stemmed from. His opinion which he is entitled too but I respectfully disagree with is about trading him right now thinking they get better without him, not trading him because you think he will walk for nothing.

There is a big difference in my opinion.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #824015 is a reply to message #823997 ]
Fri, 26 May 2023 15:34 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Xombie is currently offline Xombie
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Clearly, I should have done research. I thought Provorov was a righty and Konecny a center. confused2

Drai is untradeable. Lemieux-ish.

Bob Marley and the (Hartford) Wailers.

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