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Why it isn't McDavid's Fault [message #816444]	Tue, 10 January 2023 21:57

Adam
Messages: 7156
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

We've seen a couple comments in here about McDavid and Draisaitl and whether they aren't a big part of the problem, here's my quick argument on why they are not.

Some of the argument that it's on the leaders is around their 5v5 performance. They have not tilted the ice the way you might expect, given their massive talent - especially for McDavid. On traditional +/-, he's +1 (Drai is +3), on 5v5 Corsi he is only at 52% (Draisaitl just under 50%).

All that would maybe be damning except for a few things. First and foremost, they are ridiculously productive with the man advantage. McDavid has 39 powerplay points. He's also picked up a couple of short-handed points. If +/- was across all situations, then McDavid is on the ice for over 40 goals more than goals against. Draisaitl will probably be a little behind that - I'm pretty sure he has been on for more PKGA - but they are still adding enough there that even if they were just break even players at evens, then they are still fantastic.

They shouldn't be break-even players though of course. It should be a nightmare for opposing teams - McDavid goes out and dominates their top line, then Draisaitl goes out and manhandles line #2. In a perfect world, either Nuge or McLeod eats the third line alive too so even if the fourth line just treads water, the Oilers should have the ice tilted for much of the night. Why haven't they?

Well, there's some things that might be partly luck - Shooting percentage, for instance. McDavid is sitting at 21%, but ES on-ice shooting percentage is only 9.9%, so given his percentage, it means his wingers aren't scoring much at all, despite a sublime assist generator on their line.

Shooting percentage isn't all luck though - the Oilers defence still loves to waste point shots on unscreened goalies too which is just a momentum killer. We know that the prior defence coach had stressed volume shooting from the point, which is a horrible strategy that the team hasn't got over in the Woodcroft/Manson era.

Time on ice is probably a factor too. Once again the Oilers are playing the wheels off of their top guys - now even featuring them in PK roles too. They're 2nd and 3rd in the league in TOI per game with only Rantanen getting more time. Pronger spoke when he was here about how at big minutes, it becomes important to be efficient about how you move, what you do, how you engage. He picked his spots on scrums for example, because it takes a lot of energy out of you. As forwards, McDavid and Draisaitl get less opportunity to avoid scrums - in fact, teams target them because of who they are. They aren't giants with reputations for violence like Pronger too, so they're more likely to take abuse.

And can they still produce if they're given less minutes? I'd argue yes, and maybe even more. While McDavid's points per game is in a league of their own, Draisaitl's closest comparables for points per game are Kucherov, Thompson and Pastrnak. Kucherov is a minute and a half a game less. Thompson is over three minutes. Pasta is two and a half minutes less. Playing that much takes a toll - especially when the other team targets you constantly and the refs allow a certain amount of liberties because they feel they can't give you TOO many powerplays. In the top 20 scorers, the only other players seeing close to the same game time as McDavid and Draisaitl are MacKinnon and Rantanen (Rantanen leads all forwards in time on ice - although his usage probably was higher recently with MacKinnon out). No one else is even close.

As I mentioned before, the Oilers system is trying to force a fast break with a long pass. I'd argue it's too much to expect from the defence, and the turnover numbers reflect that. If they can thread the needle to a guy breaking through the neutral zone, it's great - but it's too hard a play to make consistently - especially with a defence without any superstars. It over-stresses the defence, who if they fail are immediately outnumbered in the defensive zone, and it takes a toll on forwards too - who have to race back on the backcheck if the feed fails to materialize. Hardly energy conservation.

Finally, one of the burdens on the Oilers top guns is that there's no one else doing it if they can't score - so they probably do push a little too hard sometimes. They definitely take some longer than desirable shifts, but can you blame them? How many goals has the team scored in the last month when at least one of them isn't on the ice? I bet it isn't even double digits. None of the Oilers depth players has been able to come even CLOSE to catching Evander Kane for 5th in scoring among Oilers forwards. He only has 16 points. None of the depth have passed his 5 goals either. Kostin and Ryan only just recently tied him there. Our production from the depth is pathetic.

Of course, a lot of that goes back to the way the team is built and run. There is no expectation that they're going to provide offence - even with a better bottom six than we've had in ages. The lines are blended constantly, players are elevated and demoted without much rhyme or reason. The bench gets shortened very quickly, and the stars all get pushed together and double shifted instead if the team falls behind. When put up on a line with McDavid or Draisaitl perfection is expected or the leash is incredibly short and someone could be back with the fourth line riding the pine after a single period. With the coach showing no faith in the depth, is there any surprise that the top players feel it's all on them too? I do think sometimes McDavid and Draisaitl push for offence when they should head too the bench at the end of a shift. That can be dangerous - but I understand the instinct. They know if they don't get that tying goal, then the chances of someone else providing it is slim.

In short - it isn't them. Coaching takes a big slice of the blame, because the system has been exposed all year but we haven't seen tweaks. It's mediocre at even strength, dragging the best players to break even levels, and exposing our depth guys. At a man-down, the systems have been atrocious, just comically bad. Woodcroft has seemed stubborn and stuck in his ways this year, and it has really shown.

More important though, of course, is piss poor management and the dreadful culture that sets for the whole organization. It's long past time for a house cleaning. Nicholson doesn't deserve to call his shot in to retirement and neither does Holland. They've just wasted years of time at an absolutely critical point in the franchise's history. If McDavid leaves in three years having never come close to a Cup in Edmonton, I don't know what it does to the fan base. I think it would be worse than even the Gretzky trade though - and I know an awful lot of people who became Kings' fans when that happened.

If you're looking for someone to pillory for where we're at - those guys should be top of the list. No one else should even be close. And certainly not the guy scoring at a rate not seen since the mid 1990s.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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