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Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810671]	Sun, 17 July 2022 16:38

Skookum Jim
Messages: 4419
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC

4 Cups

Full NHL Listing of players filing for arbitration..
Some good players.. maybe trades gets worked out between teams..

Courtesy of the NHLPA

TORONTO (July 17, 2022) The National Hockey League Players’ Association announced that 24 players have elected Salary Arbitration:

Mason Appleton (Winnipeg Jets)

Ethan Bear (Carolina Hurricanes)

Jesper Bratt (New Jersey Devils)

Lawson Crouse (Arizona Coyotes)

Morgan Geekie (Seattle Kraken)

Mathieu Joseph (Ottawa Senators)

Kaapo Kahkonen (San Jose Sharks)

Kasperi Kapanen (Pittsburgh Penguins)

Keegan Kolesar (Vegas Golden Knights)

Oliver Kylington (Calgary Flames)

Maxime Lajoie (Carolina Hurricanes)

Steven Lorentz (San Jose Sharks)

Isac Lundestrom (Anaheim Ducks)

Zack MacEwen (Philadelphia Flyers)

Niko Mikkola (St. Louis Blues)*

Andrew Mangiapane (Calgary Flames)

Matthew Phillips (Calgary Flames)

Jesse Puljujarvi (Edmonton Oilers)

Tyce Thompson (New Jersey Devils)

Yakov Trenin (Nashville Predators)

Vitek Vanecek (New Jersey Devils)

Jake Walman (Detroit Red Wings)

Kailer Yamamoto (Edmonton Oilers)

Pavel Zacha (Boston Bruins)

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P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810673 is a reply to message #810671 ]	Sun, 17 July 2022 17:28

Adam
Messages: 7176
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

Not sure why the Oilers are doing so much hand-wringing on this this year. Historically, very few players actually ever get to their hearings with an arbitrator. Where once it was a really contentious with the team beating the crap out of the player, now it’s all about comparables and pretty highly numbers. Honestly it feels a bit like when the team was over-worried that Draisaitl was going to get an offer sheet. Sadly when there’s a bunch of noise that the Oilers are panicking about something that GMs deal with all the time, it usually is a precursor to a mistake.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810674 is a reply to message #810673 ]	Sun, 17 July 2022 17:31

CrudeRemarks
Messages: 1703
Registered: November 2010
Location: Edmonton

1 Cup

Adam wrote on Sun, 17 July 2022 17:28

Not sure why the Oilers are doing so much hand-wringing on this this year. Historically, very few players actually ever get to their hearings with an arbitrator. Where once it was a really contentious with the team beating the crap out of the player, now it’s all about comparables and pretty highly numbers. Honestly it feels a bit like when the team was over-worried that Draisaitl was going to get an offer sheet. Sadly when there’s a bunch of noise that the Oilers are panicking about something that GMs deal with all the time, it usually is a precursor to a mistake.

Not this time. This time is different than all the other times.

You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you just might find, you can get a lottery pick.

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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810675 is a reply to message #810674 ]	Sun, 17 July 2022 17:35

Kr55
Messages: 10777
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

CrudeRemarks wrote on Sun, 17 July 2022 17:31

Adam wrote on Sun, 17 July 2022 17:28

Not sure why the Oilers are doing so much hand-wringing on this this year. Historically, very few players actually ever get to their hearings with an arbitrator. Where once it was a really contentious with the team beating the crap out of the player, now it’s all about comparables and pretty highly numbers. Honestly it feels a bit like when the team was over-worried that Draisaitl was going to get an offer sheet. Sadly when there’s a bunch of noise that the Oilers are panicking about something that GMs deal with all the time, it usually is a precursor to a mistake.

Not this time. This time is different than all the other times.

Easy cases for the Oilers to win with the arbitrator imo. Talk about how quiet pulju is and how he has been a pain in the butt for management and how Spector reported that allegedly he is seen as a "play killer" in the dressing room. And obviously talk about how tiny yams is.

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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810678 is a reply to message #810675 ]	Mon, 18 July 2022 08:38

RDOilerfan
Messages: 3908
Registered: January 2016

3 Cups

Kr55 wrote on Sun, 17 July 2022 17:35

CrudeRemarks wrote on Sun, 17 July 2022 17:31

Adam wrote on Sun, 17 July 2022 17:28

Not sure why the Oilers are doing so much hand-wringing on this this year. Historically, very few players actually ever get to their hearings with an arbitrator. Where once it was a really contentious with the team beating the crap out of the player, now it’s all about comparables and pretty highly numbers. Honestly it feels a bit like when the team was over-worried that Draisaitl was going to get an offer sheet. Sadly when there’s a bunch of noise that the Oilers are panicking about something that GMs deal with all the time, it usually is a precursor to a mistake.

Not this time. This time is different than all the other times.

Easy cases for the Oilers to win with the arbitrator imo. Talk about how quiet pulju is and how he has been a pain in the butt for management and how Spector reported that allegedly he is seen as a "play killer" in the dressing room. And obviously talk about how tiny yams is.

I said it in the other thread, I think JP is getting bad advice from his agent. Based on all the rumors, this is why it's been difficult to trade him. Teams are scared of the contract and what it could be if it goes to arb and the uncertainty of what JP might become. There are teams out there that are way more into numbers than the Oilers and if they are worried about what to pay him because they aren't sure what he might become, that should say a little. IF JP was smart, if he wants out and there is no way for him in his mind to come back, sign a 1-2 yr deal at 2 mill per and you'd have teams falling all over themselves to get him. Then at 26, you are a UFA and if you do well, you will get your homerun, long term deal.

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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810695 is a reply to message #810678 ]	Mon, 18 July 2022 12:31

Goose
Messages: 1098
Registered: October 2006
Location: Vancouver

1 Cup

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 18 July 2022 07:38

I said it in the other thread, I think JP is getting bad advice from his agent. Based on all the rumors, this is why it's been difficult to trade him. Teams are scared of the contract and what it could be if it goes to arb and the uncertainty of what JP might become. There are teams out there that are way more into numbers than the Oilers and if they are worried about what to pay him because they aren't sure what he might become, that should say a little. IF JP was smart, if he wants out and there is no way for him in his mind to come back, sign a 1-2 yr deal at 2 mill per and you'd have teams falling all over themselves to get him. Then at 26, you are a UFA and if you do well, you will get your homerun, long term deal.

I don't understand this line of reasoning. Is the consensus that NHL arbitration deals overwhelmingly favour the players that have good analytics? I haven't heard that before if it's the case. If the process is somewhat fair, wouldn't the deal that Puljujarvi be offered be in line with his current production?

Maybe the issue isn't so much that arbitration would overpay Puljujarvi relative to his market value, but just more that the Oilers want to pay him less than what the market is suggesting he should be paid.

Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810697 is a reply to message #810695 ]	Mon, 18 July 2022 12:36

CrusaderPi
Messages: 7803
Registered: December 2003
Location: AB Highway 100

6 Cups

Goose wrote on Mon, 18 July 2022 12:31

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 18 July 2022 07:38

I said it in the other thread, I think JP is getting bad advice from his agent. Based on all the rumors, this is why it's been difficult to trade him. Teams are scared of the contract and what it could be if it goes to arb and the uncertainty of what JP might become. There are teams out there that are way more into numbers than the Oilers and if they are worried about what to pay him because they aren't sure what he might become, that should say a little. IF JP was smart, if he wants out and there is no way for him in his mind to come back, sign a 1-2 yr deal at 2 mill per and you'd have teams falling all over themselves to get him. Then at 26, you are a UFA and if you do well, you will get your homerun, long term deal.

I don't understand this line of reasoning. Is the consensus that NHL arbitration deals overwhelmingly favour the players that have good analytics? I haven't heard that before if it's the case. If the process is somewhat fair, wouldn't the deal that Puljujarvi be offered be in line with his current production?

Maybe the issue isn't so much that arbitration would overpay Puljujarvi relative to his market value, but just more that the Oilers want to pay him less than what the market is suggesting he should be paid.

100% this. UFAs are allowed to let the market set their value. RFAs don't have that luxury. So to protect players from predatory ownership behavior, older RFAs can go to an independent third party who has the experience to do just that. This has the bonus upside of arbitration always being a terrifying and unpredictable experience.

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810780 is a reply to message #810697 ]	Thu, 21 July 2022 17:33

mightyreasoner
Messages: 520
Registered: October 2005
Location: Edmonton

No Cups

CrusaderPi wrote on Mon, 18 July 2022 12:36

Goose wrote on Mon, 18 July 2022 12:31

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 18 July 2022 07:38

I said it in the other thread, I think JP is getting bad advice from his agent. Based on all the rumors, this is why it's been difficult to trade him. Teams are scared of the contract and what it could be if it goes to arb and the uncertainty of what JP might become. There are teams out there that are way more into numbers than the Oilers and if they are worried about what to pay him because they aren't sure what he might become, that should say a little. IF JP was smart, if he wants out and there is no way for him in his mind to come back, sign a 1-2 yr deal at 2 mill per and you'd have teams falling all over themselves to get him. Then at 26, you are a UFA and if you do well, you will get your homerun, long term deal.

I don't understand this line of reasoning. Is the consensus that NHL arbitration deals overwhelmingly favour the players that have good analytics? I haven't heard that before if it's the case. If the process is somewhat fair, wouldn't the deal that Puljujarvi be offered be in line with his current production?

Maybe the issue isn't so much that arbitration would overpay Puljujarvi relative to his market value, but just more that the Oilers want to pay him less than what the market is suggesting he should be paid.

100% this. UFAs are allowed to let the market set their value. RFAs don't have that luxury. So to protect players from predatory ownership behavior, older RFAs can go to an independent third party who has the experience to do just that. This has the bonus upside of arbitration always being a terrifying and unpredictable experience.

On top of this, if you are a team that DOES have interest in Puljujarvi and you sense the Oilers may walk away from an arbitration awards if they deem it too high, you likely are waiting that out rather than giving up assets. If you could pay him $3M and give up no assets, that is better than paying him $3M and giving up assets.

It's probably another example how the transparency of the Oilers management may work against them a bit.

[Updated on: Thu, 21 July 2022 17:39]

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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810784 is a reply to message #810780 ]	Thu, 21 July 2022 22:01

oilfan94
Messages: 409
Registered: June 2006
Location: USA

No Cups

mightyreasoner wrote on Thu, 21 July 2022 19:33

CrusaderPi wrote on Mon, 18 July 2022 12:36

Goose wrote on Mon, 18 July 2022 12:31

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 18 July 2022 07:38

I said it in the other thread, I think JP is getting bad advice from his agent. Based on all the rumors, this is why it's been difficult to trade him. Teams are scared of the contract and what it could be if it goes to arb and the uncertainty of what JP might become. There are teams out there that are way more into numbers than the Oilers and if they are worried about what to pay him because they aren't sure what he might become, that should say a little. IF JP was smart, if he wants out and there is no way for him in his mind to come back, sign a 1-2 yr deal at 2 mill per and you'd have teams falling all over themselves to get him. Then at 26, you are a UFA and if you do well, you will get your homerun, long term deal.

I don't understand this line of reasoning. Is the consensus that NHL arbitration deals overwhelmingly favour the players that have good analytics? I haven't heard that before if it's the case. If the process is somewhat fair, wouldn't the deal that Puljujarvi be offered be in line with his current production?

Maybe the issue isn't so much that arbitration would overpay Puljujarvi relative to his market value, but just more that the Oilers want to pay him less than what the market is suggesting he should be paid.

100% this. UFAs are allowed to let the market set their value. RFAs don't have that luxury. So to protect players from predatory ownership behavior, older RFAs can go to an independent third party who has the experience to do just that. This has the bonus upside of arbitration always being a terrifying and unpredictable experience.

On top of this, if you are a team that DOES have interest in Puljujarvi and you sense the Oilers may walk away from an arbitration awards if they deem it too high, you likely are waiting that out rather than giving up assets. If you could pay him $3M and give up no assets, that is better than paying him $3M and giving up assets.

It's probably another example how the transparency of the Oilers management may work against them a bit.

Serious question, has the Oilers transparency of moves ever turned out to their benefit that we know of?

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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810788 is a reply to message #810784 ]	Fri, 22 July 2022 10:48

CrudeRemarks
Messages: 1703
Registered: November 2010
Location: Edmonton

1 Cup

oilfan94 wrote on Thu, 21 July 2022 22:01

mightyreasoner wrote on Thu, 21 July 2022 19:33

CrusaderPi wrote on Mon, 18 July 2022 12:36

Goose wrote on Mon, 18 July 2022 12:31

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 18 July 2022 07:38

I said it in the other thread, I think JP is getting bad advice from his agent. Based on all the rumors, this is why it's been difficult to trade him. Teams are scared of the contract and what it could be if it goes to arb and the uncertainty of what JP might become. There are teams out there that are way more into numbers than the Oilers and if they are worried about what to pay him because they aren't sure what he might become, that should say a little. IF JP was smart, if he wants out and there is no way for him in his mind to come back, sign a 1-2 yr deal at 2 mill per and you'd have teams falling all over themselves to get him. Then at 26, you are a UFA and if you do well, you will get your homerun, long term deal.

I don't understand this line of reasoning. Is the consensus that NHL arbitration deals overwhelmingly favour the players that have good analytics? I haven't heard that before if it's the case. If the process is somewhat fair, wouldn't the deal that Puljujarvi be offered be in line with his current production?

Maybe the issue isn't so much that arbitration would overpay Puljujarvi relative to his market value, but just more that the Oilers want to pay him less than what the market is suggesting he should be paid.

100% this. UFAs are allowed to let the market set their value. RFAs don't have that luxury. So to protect players from predatory ownership behavior, older RFAs can go to an independent third party who has the experience to do just that. This has the bonus upside of arbitration always being a terrifying and unpredictable experience.

On top of this, if you are a team that DOES have interest in Puljujarvi and you sense the Oilers may walk away from an arbitration awards if they deem it too high, you likely are waiting that out rather than giving up assets. If you could pay him $3M and give up no assets, that is better than paying him $3M and giving up assets.

It's probably another example how the transparency of the Oilers management may work against them a bit.

Serious question, has the Oilers transparency of moves ever turned out to their benefit that we know of?

For me it's nice to have the clarity that if I sleep with the owner, it's worth $50-$75k. I hate wondering about that stuff.

You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you just might find, you can get a lottery pick.

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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810703 is a reply to message #810695 ]	Mon, 18 July 2022 13:01

RDOilerfan
Messages: 3908
Registered: January 2016

3 Cups

Goose wrote on Mon, 18 July 2022 12:31

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 18 July 2022 07:38

I said it in the other thread, I think JP is getting bad advice from his agent. Based on all the rumors, this is why it's been difficult to trade him. Teams are scared of the contract and what it could be if it goes to arb and the uncertainty of what JP might become. There are teams out there that are way more into numbers than the Oilers and if they are worried about what to pay him because they aren't sure what he might become, that should say a little. IF JP was smart, if he wants out and there is no way for him in his mind to come back, sign a 1-2 yr deal at 2 mill per and you'd have teams falling all over themselves to get him. Then at 26, you are a UFA and if you do well, you will get your homerun, long term deal.

I don't understand this line of reasoning. Is the consensus that NHL arbitration deals overwhelmingly favour the players that have good analytics? I haven't heard that before if it's the case. If the process is somewhat fair, wouldn't the deal that Puljujarvi be offered be in line with his current production?

Maybe the issue isn't so much that arbitration would overpay Puljujarvi relative to his market value, but just more that the Oilers want to pay him less than what the market is suggesting he should be paid.

I have never been in an NHL arb case nor will I ever have the opportunity to witness one so I have no idea if analytics are taken into account. My understanding from what information I have been told and full disclosure it's based on what I hear from all the out of market hockey guys, is they don't consider analytics much. They look at the guys stats and compare them to what other guys with similar stats are making. There are going to be guys on the high end, some on the low end and my guess is they come somewhere in the middle.

Again, this is based on what I have heard all the major non Oiler insiders who supposedly talk to people from other teams, supposedly the issue with JP is teams are worried he will get awarded more in an arb case than what they would like to pay him at the moment.

[Updated on: Mon, 18 July 2022 13:04]

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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810711 is a reply to message #810703 ]	Mon, 18 July 2022 14:02

Goose
Messages: 1098
Registered: October 2006
Location: Vancouver

1 Cup

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 18 July 2022 12:01

I have never been in an NHL arb case nor will I ever have the opportunity to witness one so I have no idea if analytics are taken into account. My understanding from what information I have been told and full disclosure it's based on what I hear from all the out of market hockey guys, is they don't consider analytics much. They look at the guys stats and compare them to what other guys with similar stats are making. There are going to be guys on the high end, some on the low end and my guess is they come somewhere in the middle.

Again, this is based on what I have heard all the major non Oiler insiders who supposedly talk to people from other teams, supposedly the issue with JP is teams are worried he will get awarded more in an arb case than what they would like to pay him at the moment.

I would imagine that any team trading for any player going to arbitration would be worried about that player getting a bigger award than they would like. I don't think this is somehow unique to Jesse Puljujarvi.

Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810720 is a reply to message #810703 ]	Mon, 18 July 2022 17:14

AndersonRules
Messages: 94
Registered: April 2008
Location: Shawnee, Oklahoma (OKC ar...

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If it is the case that
(A) arbitration considers hard stats and not analytics, and
(B) other teams are worried about how much JP might be awarded in arb … then
(C) the rational conclusion is that teams think JP’s hard stats deserve a sizeable pay raise … which is what I’ve been arguing for the past month …

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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810686 is a reply to message #810675 ]	Mon, 18 July 2022 09:48

Dragon_Matt
Messages: 766
Registered: January 2009
Location: edmonton

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Don't mention Spector to an arbitrator. that'll just sink your battleship.

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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810721 is a reply to message #810671 ]	Mon, 18 July 2022 20:26

Skookum Jim
Messages: 4419
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC

4 Cups

Luke Kunin just signed in SJ.. 2 x $2.75M.. same age (24) and almost identical stats as Pujujarvi.. the market is speaking.. Can't see an arbitrator going higher than that.. and Kunin wasn't playing with an Extraterrestrial. An arbitrator could quite easily award JP less than Kunin.

Kunin (NHL Career)

251 NHL Games
46G (0.183 GPG)
47A
93 Pts (0.371 PPG)

Puljujarvi (NHL Career)

259 NHL Games
46G (0.178 GPG)
52A
98 Pts (0.378 PPG)

McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!!
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810722 is a reply to message #810721 ]	Tue, 19 July 2022 08:29

RDOilerfan
Messages: 3908
Registered: January 2016

3 Cups

I heard it again on the radio shows and apparently players, agent and GM's were all asked if advanced stats are used in arb cases and apparently they aren't because the arbitrator typically doesn't know how they work, so it sounds like production are the primary thing they look at. I'd be curious to know if who a player plays with plays a factor for the arbitrator. Playing with McDavid does give any player a bump in his numbers.

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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810723 is a reply to message #810722 ]	Tue, 19 July 2022 09:14

CrudeRemarks
Messages: 1703
Registered: November 2010
Location: Edmonton

1 Cup

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 19 July 2022 08:29

I heard it again on the radio shows and apparently players, agent and GM's were all asked if advanced stats are used in arb cases and apparently they aren't because the arbitrator typically doesn't know how they work, so it sounds like production are the primary thing they look at. I'd be curious to know if who a player plays with plays a factor for the arbitrator. Playing with McDavid does give any player a bump in his numbers.

That would be hilarious if it’s true. Isn’t it an arbitrator’s job to gain an understanding of performance? Advanced stats are not complicated to look up and definitions are easily found online

You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you just might find, you can get a lottery pick.

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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810724 is a reply to message #810723 ]	Tue, 19 July 2022 09:31

RDOilerfan
Messages: 3908
Registered: January 2016

3 Cups

CrudeRemarks wrote on Tue, 19 July 2022 09:14

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 19 July 2022 08:29

I heard it again on the radio shows and apparently players, agent and GM's were all asked if advanced stats are used in arb cases and apparently they aren't because the arbitrator typically doesn't know how they work, so it sounds like production are the primary thing they look at. I'd be curious to know if who a player plays with plays a factor for the arbitrator. Playing with McDavid does give any player a bump in his numbers.

That would be hilarious if it’s true. Isn’t it an arbitrator’s job to gain an understanding of performance? Advanced stats are not complicated to look up and definitions are easily found online

That's apparently what all the agents, players and GM are saying.

I don't think these guys are hockey guys. Plus is there 1 set way of doing the advanced stats that is universally deemed as correct? I've listened to a variety of people who do them talk about how one guys stats puts too much weight on something and not enough on the other so they aren't right, then another guys goes the other way. I don't know this for sure but I bet if you had 5 teams mark a player using their system, I bet you get 5 slightly different answers. If the player is using advanced stats, they are going to search out and find the ones that benefit him the most and disregard the ones that don't benefit him. But are they the right ones?

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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810725 is a reply to message #810724 ]	Tue, 19 July 2022 10:17

RDOilerfan
Messages: 3908
Registered: January 2016

3 Cups

Is Engvall not a fairly direct comparison to JP and even Yamo to give an idea on range of salary? In 78 games he scored 15 goals, 35 pts and just signed for 1 year at 2.25 mill.

JP in 65 games had 14 goals, 36 pts.
Yamo in 81 games had 20 goals, 41 pts.

I don't think Engvall was playing with players on the same level as McD and Leon but I'd think those 2 would be in the range, maybe slightly more. But the Engvall deal has to partially set the market for the both of them.

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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810726 is a reply to message #810725 ]	Tue, 19 July 2022 10:27

Kr55
Messages: 10777
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 19 July 2022 10:17

Is Engvall not a fairly direct comparison to JP and even Yamo to give an idea on range of salary? In 78 games he scored 15 goals, 35 pts and just signed for 1 year at 2.25 mill.

JP in 65 games had 14 goals, 36 pts.
Yamo in 81 games had 20 goals, 41 pts.

I don't think Engvall was playing with players on the same level as McD and Leon but I'd think those 2 would be in the range, maybe slightly more. But the Engvall deal has to partially set the market for the both of them.

Seems like a reasonable comparison. Just looking at box cars I think engvall did the same with less quality of teammates. Pulju has to accept his season was derailed for half of it if he wants the arbitrator to compare him to others. Without covid and injuries maybe he is sitting here with 50+ points, but it simply did not happen that way.

Sorry term I would hope for 2.5-3M. Medium term 3.3 or so for 3-4 years. Longer term 4 maybe. Unlikely we do that. Pulju probably wants shorter term to try to have a good fully healthy season or 2 to try to negotiate again with. And not sure the Oilers are wanting to take advantage of his half messed up season to get him at a bargain price medium to long term. Although maybe here think they should.

[Updated on: Tue, 19 July 2022 10:34]

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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810727 is a reply to message #810726 ]	Tue, 19 July 2022 10:35

RDOilerfan
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Kr55 wrote on Tue, 19 July 2022 10:27

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 19 July 2022 10:17

Is Engvall not a fairly direct comparison to JP and even Yamo to give an idea on range of salary? In 78 games he scored 15 goals, 35 pts and just signed for 1 year at 2.25 mill.

JP in 65 games had 14 goals, 36 pts.
Yamo in 81 games had 20 goals, 41 pts.

I don't think Engvall was playing with players on the same level as McD and Leon but I'd think those 2 would be in the range, maybe slightly more. But the Engvall deal has to partially set the market for the both of them.

Seems like a reasonable comparison. Just looking at box cars I think engvall did the same with less quality of teammates. Pulju has to accept his season was derailed for half of it if he wants the arbitrator to compare him to others. Without covid and injuries maybe he is sitting here with 50+ points, but it simply did not happen that way.

Sorry term I would hope for 2.5-3M. Medium term 3.3 or so for 3-4 years. Longer term 4 maybe. Unlikely we do that. Pulju probably wants shorter term to try to have a good fully healthy season or 2 to try to negotiate again with.

If I was JP, I would be advising my agent to sign a deal similar to Engvall's. If you are confident in yourself and your abilities and think the team is wrong in where they see you. Sign a short term, hopefully have a good year. The Oilers are in win now mode. If JP is playing extremely well early on, he will get moved up. IF he can't stomach being an Oiler anymore, signing a deal like that makes your trade value go way up in my opinion.

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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810728 is a reply to message #810727 ]	Tue, 19 July 2022 12:17

Dragon_Matt
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one more perk for him if PJ takes a shorter term is that (hopefully) the cap rises. Then the oilers would be negotiating with a slightly expanded wallet at 25 or 26 years old.

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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810729 is a reply to message #810728 ]	Tue, 19 July 2022 12:23

RDOilerfan
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JP would also have a year or 2 more to establish what kind of player he is. A big issue seems to be what kind of player he is. Seems like the team wants pay him according to what he is now vs the player wants to be paid like what he thinks he could become.

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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810730 is a reply to message #810729 ]	Tue, 19 July 2022 13:32

Mike
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Probably a higher cap and we get $2.2M back next year with most of our big ticket players signed, so there could be more money there for him in a year or 2 (another 3 years of $2M for that stupid Neal buyout though)

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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810731 is a reply to message #810730 ]	Tue, 19 July 2022 13:49

RDOilerfan
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Mike wrote on Tue, 19 July 2022 13:32

Probably a higher cap and we get $2.2M back next year with most of our big ticket players signed, so there could be more money there for him in a year or 2 (another 3 years of $2M for that stupid Neal buyout though)

My thinking as well.

He came out playing really well for the first 20 ish games, then got sick with Covid, got hurt a bit and his season went into the tank and his playoff wasn't that great either. But the drop off was quite a bit so I am sure there is some concern it wasn't all because of sickness or injury by the team AND concern from any other team that might want to trade for him. A good season would eliminate all of that and he will get paid if he does it.

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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810770 is a reply to message #810671 ]	Thu, 21 July 2022 10:22

oilfan94
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https://www.tsn.ca/nhlpa-announces-arbitration-dates-matthew -tkachuk-1.1827815

Arbitration dates are set, Puljujarvi on July 29th and Yamamoto on Aug 7th. We can all speculate what will happen, but it's nice to have a deadline for resolutions to happen rather than having it drag into training camp or into the season.

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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810773 is a reply to message #810770 ]	Thu, 21 July 2022 12:40

Dragon_Matt
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If you could only keep one of the two, who would it be and why? There seems to be a number of people that want PJ to be moved, but I've heard almost no chatter for Yamamoto being moved, when I see him as clearly the inferior of the two, whether by traditional or advanced stats.

Yamamoto being small doesn't automatically mean he's worse, but if you're a small guy, you have to be better than your competition. You can't be equal, and he's not.
I'd obviously rather move Warren Foegle than either, but that's not the question.

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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810776 is a reply to message #810773 ]	Thu, 21 July 2022 13:53

oilfan94
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Dragon_Matt wrote on Thu, 21 July 2022 14:40

If you could only keep one of the two, who would it be and why? There seems to be a number of people that want PJ to be moved, but I've heard almost no chatter for Yamamoto being moved, when I see him as clearly the inferior of the two, whether by traditional or advanced stats.

Yamamoto being small doesn't automatically mean he's worse, but if you're a small guy, you have to be better than your competition. You can't be equal, and he's not.
I'd obviously rather move Warren Foegle than either, but that's not the question.

Honestly it's a tough question. When I watch the game, Yamamoto often looks more tenacious, whereas Puljujarvi always looks so awkward and it feels like he just can't finish. I still think that Puljujarvi has a higher ceiling, and some part of me feels like he has just about reached his full potential. So I am kind of in the camp of letting the chips fall where they may. I hope we can keep both for another season so we can see which one takes another step, but I won't get too upset over losing one over the other, since I don't think either one has a huge edge over the other. I guess if we lose both, then I'll be upset at that outcome.

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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810777 is a reply to message #810776 ]	Thu, 21 July 2022 14:11

RDOilerfan
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I just want however it's going to go with these 2 players just to be solved. The team is trying to build a championship team. To do that, players need to find a role and to be paid accordingly for that role. Sometimes good teams have players who have to accept a lesser role than they would have on other teams. So are those 2 in or out. If their goal is max out the dollars, maybe they both can't be here.

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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810778 is a reply to message #810776 ]	Thu, 21 July 2022 14:40

nullterm
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oilfan94 wrote on Thu, 21 July 2022 12:53

Dragon_Matt wrote on Thu, 21 July 2022 14:40

If you could only keep one of the two, who would it be and why? There seems to be a number of people that want PJ to be moved, but I've heard almost no chatter for Yamamoto being moved, when I see him as clearly the inferior of the two, whether by traditional or advanced stats.

Yamamoto being small doesn't automatically mean he's worse, but if you're a small guy, you have to be better than your competition. You can't be equal, and he's not.
I'd obviously rather move Warren Foegle than either, but that's not the question.

Honestly it's a tough question. When I watch the game, Yamamoto often looks more tenacious, whereas Puljujarvi always looks so awkward and it feels like he just can't finish. I still think that Puljujarvi has a higher ceiling, and some part of me feels like he has just about reached his full potential. So I am kind of in the camp of letting the chips fall where they may. I hope we can keep both for another season so we can see which one takes another step, but I won't get too upset over losing one over the other, since I don't think either one has a huge edge over the other. I guess if we lose both, then I'll be upset at that outcome.

My hot take, the same stuff that Puljujarvi would need to take him to the next level is the same stuff that would make Puljujarvi focus on playing as an Oiler. He needs to commit both to his own game and what ever team he's playing on. Holland strikes me as a guy who will easily look past issues (see Kane) if it benefits the team and the player is willing to commit.

He's not gonna find a better opportunity linemate wise than here unless he ends up on the first line of a rebuild team going nowhere. And if he goes to a competitive team he'll be on the 3rd line there.

I think he could be a 60pt player, but as is he'll probably be 40, 50 max. Which is still pretty good. But not what he could be.

[Updated on: Thu, 21 July 2022 14:43]

Illegitimi non carborundum.

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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810824 is a reply to message #810770 ]	Tue, 26 July 2022 09:24

Adam
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oilfan94 wrote on Thu, 21 July 2022 10:22

https://www.tsn.ca/nhlpa-announces-arbitration-dates-matthew -tkachuk-1.1827815

Arbitration dates are set, Puljujarvi on July 29th and Yamamoto on Aug 7th. We can all speculate what will happen, but it's nice to have a deadline for resolutions to happen rather than having it drag into training camp or into the season.

Just three more days now. Does a trade happen? The prices aren't looking good based on what Seattle paid for Bjorkstrand. Teams are going to look at the Oilers cap situation and think we need to move someone - so they aren't going to do us any favours.

I'd still rather see the team find new homes for Barrie and Foegele, who look more expensive relative to their spot on the depth chart than does Puljujarvi, even at $3MM+.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810825 is a reply to message #810824 ]	Tue, 26 July 2022 09:57

CrusaderPi
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I'm kind of hoping for arbitration for Pulju. It settles that matter at a certain point for a set amount of time without having the brain trust do much thinking.

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810826 is a reply to message #810825 ]	Tue, 26 July 2022 10:20

Adam
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CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 26 July 2022 09:57

I'm kind of hoping for arbitration for Pulju. It settles that matter at a certain point for a set amount of time without having the brain trust do much thinking.

Some danger there though still.

The Oilers could:

- Walk away from the award making him a free agent
- Trade him for peanuts
- Exercise a buyout to get rid of Barrie and pay him for the next four years instead of the next two.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810827 is a reply to message #810826 ]	Tue, 26 July 2022 10:30

CrusaderPi
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Adam wrote on Tue, 26 July 2022 10:20

CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 26 July 2022 09:57

I'm kind of hoping for arbitration for Pulju. It settles that matter at a certain point for a set amount of time without having the brain trust do much thinking.

Some danger there though still.

The Oilers could:

- Walk away from the award making him a free agent
- Trade him for peanuts
- Exercise a buyout to get rid of Barrie and pay him for the next four years instead of the next two.

Those options all exist now with the added threat of outsmarting themselves on Puljujarvi. I don't think they have any idea how to value Pulju aside from cheaper is better. This at least sets the value.

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810828 is a reply to message #810824 ]	Tue, 26 July 2022 10:34

Kr55
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Adam wrote on Tue, 26 July 2022 09:24

oilfan94 wrote on Thu, 21 July 2022 10:22

https://www.tsn.ca/nhlpa-announces-arbitration-dates-matthew -tkachuk-1.1827815

Arbitration dates are set, Puljujarvi on July 29th and Yamamoto on Aug 7th. We can all speculate what will happen, but it's nice to have a deadline for resolutions to happen rather than having it drag into training camp or into the season.

Just three more days now. Does a trade happen? The prices aren't looking good based on what Seattle paid for Bjorkstrand. Teams are going to look at the Oilers cap situation and think we need to move someone - so they aren't going to do us any favours.

I'd still rather see the team find new homes for Barrie and Foegele, who look more expensive relative to their spot on the depth chart than does Puljujarvi, even at $3MM+.

How is this for a comparison?

D Siegenthaler gets 3.4Mx5. I have never heard of this player before today lol. 27 points in 175 games. 25 years old, 1-13-14 and -5 in 70 games last season.

The catch though, analytics say this guy is a defensive beast.

Check dat shot supression!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FYmiwt9WQAIs2qf?format=jpg&name=small

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FYmiRmCX0AESiYm?format=jpg&name=small

There's your defensive Pulju :) Devils analytics department insisting a long term deal on this guy, the kind of deal many analytics leaning Oilers fans would love to see with Pulju. Except Pulju probably has more offensive upside if he can figure out his shot.

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810829 is a reply to message #810828 ]	Tue, 26 July 2022 10:49

RDOilerfan
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Kr55 wrote on Tue, 26 July 2022 10:34

Adam wrote on Tue, 26 July 2022 09:24

oilfan94 wrote on Thu, 21 July 2022 10:22

https://www.tsn.ca/nhlpa-announces-arbitration-dates-matthew -tkachuk-1.1827815

Arbitration dates are set, Puljujarvi on July 29th and Yamamoto on Aug 7th. We can all speculate what will happen, but it's nice to have a deadline for resolutions to happen rather than having it drag into training camp or into the season.

Just three more days now. Does a trade happen? The prices aren't looking good based on what Seattle paid for Bjorkstrand. Teams are going to look at the Oilers cap situation and think we need to move someone - so they aren't going to do us any favours.

I'd still rather see the team find new homes for Barrie and Foegele, who look more expensive relative to their spot on the depth chart than does Puljujarvi, even at $3MM+.

How is this for a comparison?

D Siegenthaler gets 3.4Mx5. I have never heard of this player before today lol. 27 points in 175 games. 25 years old, 1-13-14 and -5 in 70 games last season.

The catch though, analytics say this guy is a defensive beast.

Check dat shot supression!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FYmiwt9WQAIs2qf?format=jpg&name=small

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FYmiRmCX0AESiYm?format=jpg&name=small

There's your defensive Pulju :) Devils analytics department insisting a long term deal on this guy, the kind of deal many analytics leaning Oilers fans would love to see with Pulju. Except Pulju probably has more offensive upside if he can figure out his shot.

This guy is a defenseman so I am not sure how much of a comparable he is to JP.

Personally, if JP was in the 3.5 yr range on a long term deal, I'd be OK with that. I'd be shocked if he would accept that as I think he feels he's worth a lot more. I am a bit surprised with how many people cover this team there has been absolute crickets about him especially since his Arb case is right away. I guess it's the quiet time for media so maybe that's why.

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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810830 is a reply to message #810829 ]	Tue, 26 July 2022 11:05

Kr55
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Location: Edmonton

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RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 26 July 2022 10:49

Kr55 wrote on Tue, 26 July 2022 10:34

Adam wrote on Tue, 26 July 2022 09:24

oilfan94 wrote on Thu, 21 July 2022 10:22

https://www.tsn.ca/nhlpa-announces-arbitration-dates-matthew -tkachuk-1.1827815

Arbitration dates are set, Puljujarvi on July 29th and Yamamoto on Aug 7th. We can all speculate what will happen, but it's nice to have a deadline for resolutions to happen rather than having it drag into training camp or into the season.

Just three more days now. Does a trade happen? The prices aren't looking good based on what Seattle paid for Bjorkstrand. Teams are going to look at the Oilers cap situation and think we need to move someone - so they aren't going to do us any favours.

I'd still rather see the team find new homes for Barrie and Foegele, who look more expensive relative to their spot on the depth chart than does Puljujarvi, even at $3MM+.

How is this for a comparison?

D Siegenthaler gets 3.4Mx5. I have never heard of this player before today lol. 27 points in 175 games. 25 years old, 1-13-14 and -5 in 70 games last season.

The catch though, analytics say this guy is a defensive beast.

Check dat shot supression!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FYmiwt9WQAIs2qf?format=jpg&name=small

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FYmiRmCX0AESiYm?format=jpg&name=small

There's your defensive Pulju :) Devils analytics department insisting a long term deal on this guy, the kind of deal many analytics leaning Oilers fans would love to see with Pulju. Except Pulju probably has more offensive upside if he can figure out his shot.

This guy is a defenseman so I am not sure how much of a comparable he is to JP.

Personally, if JP was in the 3.5 yr range on a long term deal, I'd be OK with that. I'd be shocked if he would accept that as I think he feels he's worth a lot more. I am a bit surprised with how many people cover this team there has been absolute crickets about him especially since his Arb case is right away. I guess it's the quiet time for media so maybe that's why.

Different position, but from an analytics perspective, the argument of why they are valuable is the same. When either guy is on the ice, the chances against drop down dramatically and doesn't seem to matter much who they play with.

Would be curious if JP would entertain a 3.5M deal around 5 years. That's a pretty nice payday and would still have some years left to cash in if he does finally break out offensively.

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810831 is a reply to message #810830 ]	Tue, 26 July 2022 11:13

RDOilerfan
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Kr55 wrote on Tue, 26 July 2022 11:05

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 26 July 2022 10:49

Kr55 wrote on Tue, 26 July 2022 10:34

Adam wrote on Tue, 26 July 2022 09:24

oilfan94 wrote on Thu, 21 July 2022 10:22

https://www.tsn.ca/nhlpa-announces-arbitration-dates-matthew -tkachuk-1.1827815

Arbitration dates are set, Puljujarvi on July 29th and Yamamoto on Aug 7th. We can all speculate what will happen, but it's nice to have a deadline for resolutions to happen rather than having it drag into training camp or into the season.

Just three more days now. Does a trade happen? The prices aren't looking good based on what Seattle paid for Bjorkstrand. Teams are going to look at the Oilers cap situation and think we need to move someone - so they aren't going to do us any favours.

I'd still rather see the team find new homes for Barrie and Foegele, who look more expensive relative to their spot on the depth chart than does Puljujarvi, even at $3MM+.

How is this for a comparison?

D Siegenthaler gets 3.4Mx5. I have never heard of this player before today lol. 27 points in 175 games. 25 years old, 1-13-14 and -5 in 70 games last season.

The catch though, analytics say this guy is a defensive beast.

Check dat shot supression!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FYmiwt9WQAIs2qf?format=jpg&name=small

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FYmiRmCX0AESiYm?format=jpg&name=small

There's your defensive Pulju :) Devils analytics department insisting a long term deal on this guy, the kind of deal many analytics leaning Oilers fans would love to see with Pulju. Except Pulju probably has more offensive upside if he can figure out his shot.

This guy is a defenseman so I am not sure how much of a comparable he is to JP.

Personally, if JP was in the 3.5 yr range on a long term deal, I'd be OK with that. I'd be shocked if he would accept that as I think he feels he's worth a lot more. I am a bit surprised with how many people cover this team there has been absolute crickets about him especially since his Arb case is right away. I guess it's the quiet time for media so maybe that's why.

Different position, but from an analytics perspective, the argument of why they are valuable is the same. When either guy is on the ice, the chances against drop down dramatically and doesn't seem to matter much who they play with.

Would be curious if JP would entertain a 3.5M deal around 5 years. That's a pretty nice payday and would still have some years left to cash in if he does finally break out offensively.

I know in here the Oilers are basically always stupid but with Brad Holland seemingly taking on a bigger role, he's been interviewed and talked about all the people HE wants to hire, he's talked about the moves and what HE values which includes advanced stats, it sure sounds like he's being given a big chunk of the reins and has a pretty big role in the ultimate direction of the team moving forward. So I just wonder if JP would accept that, would the Oilers not take that deal. Like you said, that's more than 3 times what he was making last year so that's a pretty big raise and based on what Brad said, it seems like the recognize and value what JP does which includes all of what the advanced numbers say.

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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810833 is a reply to message #810831 ]	Tue, 26 July 2022 11:35

CrusaderPi
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The Oilers aren't always stupid here. The Oilers have been consistently, predictably, and shockingly bad for over 20 years on the ice with a direct correlation existing between the people they employ in management and those horrifying on ice results. Even in a good year, like last year, the flaws were so obvious and apparent it's appalling they weren't dealt with in a timely manner. The Oilers are 'always stupid' in reality.

Now it's nice to think the current GM's son will be a breathe of fresh air and change the fortune of the poorly run Oilers and it might, we don't know. It also might not. There's a non-zero possibility that this is just another in a long line of crony or nepotism based hires into senior positions that continue the decades (plural) long cycle of suck. Personally, I lean towards the idea that similar actions (crony-based hiring) will have have similar results (dreadful hockey). That's just me though. Idealistic hope is better for others.

I don't think we know if the GM's son has been given significant authority or input into decision making. We certainly don't know if the GM's son authority or input will have a positive impact on the ice. I also can't fathom how the GM's son will have a nominal impact on how a current player values himself. Especially if the player thinks he's been underpaid and undervalued for years. 3 times not enough could still be not enough.

All we know for certain right now is Brad Holland has a more important sounding title and Puljujarvi has a date with an arbitrator this week... an arbitrator who is unlikely to reduce salary because Brad Holland is now the freshly minted Senior VP of Paperclips.

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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Re: Puljujarvi + Yamamoto File for Arbitration [message #810834 is a reply to message #810833 ]	Tue, 26 July 2022 11:52

RDOilerfan
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CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 26 July 2022 11:35

The Oilers aren't always stupid here. The Oilers have been consistently, predictably, and shockingly bad for over 20 years on the ice with a direct correlation existing between the people they employ in management and those horrifying on ice results. Even in a good year, like last year, the flaws were so obvious and apparent it's appalling they weren't dealt with in a timely manner. The Oilers are 'always stupid' in reality.

Now it's nice to think the current GM's son will be a breathe of fresh air and change the fortune of the poorly run Oilers and it might, we don't know. It also might not. There's a non-zero possibility that this is just another in a long line of crony or nepotism based hires into senior positions that continue the decades (plural) long cycle of suck. Personally, I lean towards the idea that similar actions (crony-based hiring) will have have similar results (dreadful hockey). That's just me though. Idealistic hope is better for others.

I don't think we know if the GM's son has been given significant authority or input into decision making. We certainly don't know if the GM's son authority or input will have a positive impact on the ice. I also can't fathom how the GM's son will have a nominal impact on how a current player values himself. Especially if the player thinks he's been underpaid and undervalued for years. 3 times not enough could still be not enough.

All we know for certain right now is Brad Holland has a more important sounding title and Puljujarvi has a date with an arbitrator this week... an arbitrator who is unlikely to reduce salary because Brad Holland is now the freshly minted Senior VP of Paperclips.

I don't have any information from anyone but I think JP sees himself being worth way more than 3.5 mill on a deal with any kind of term. If he believes he's this legit top 6 player who helps drive McD's offense, which I think is the biggest load of BS ever stated by advanced stats, but if he believes that, I can't see him accepting anything with any kind of term less than 4 and more likely a lot higher than that.

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