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 Worst of the Worst [message #799179]
Mon, 07 February 2022 10:45 Go to next message
Adam is currently offline Adam
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Someone made a couple of comments in here recently about the aggregate record over the last few years, so I pulled a few numbers.

I decided to look at the entire Kevin Lowe era first 2000-2022.

The Oilers in that time are 701-701-47-162 (the 47 being ties, the 162 OTLs) in that time. That's good for 28 out of 30 teams with only Arizona and Columbus worse. Seattle and Vegas obviously don't count here. The worst five teams in the league in that span also include Buffalo and Florida. The Panthers are 26th of 30 even though they also had a ten year playoff drought in here. Somehow four teams managed to be worse!

From the lost lockout season on? The team is 552-590-141 - good for dead last out of 30 teams. Arizona is the next most patheric, then Buffalo, Columbus and the New York Islanders.

Since Taylor Hall was drafted? 373-402-98, good for 29th of 30 with only the Sabres worse. Columbus and the Islanders look a lot better, with the Devils and Senators joining the bottom 5.

Some good news? Since Connor McDavid was drafted, the Oilers are out of the bottom 5! We've got a 244-207-46 record (below true .500) and we're 22nd in the league. (In case you're wondering, the Red Wings replaced us in the cellar, while the rest (Devils, Senators, Coyotes and Sabres remain).

From this, there are a few conclusions to be drawn. Mostly, the worst franchises in the league are the worst for a reason. Over a 20 year span, you would expect that there would be some fluctuation, but the Coyotes, Sabres and Oilers are pretty much always in the mix. Florida has really turned it around in the last few years with new ownership - they are the 7th best team in the league since McDavid joined, despite being in the bottom five in the 2010 and on stats. It really is as simple as that - if your ownership permits incompetents to inhabit management for long periods of time, then you get really bad teams.

Worth noting, there's some commonality in the top range too. Over both the post 2015 and post 2010 periods, Pittsburgh, Washington, Tampa, Boston and St. Louis are the top 5 (not in that order and they shift). From 2006, it's Pittsburgh, Washington, Boston, San Jose and Nashville. Since 2000, it's Boston, San Jose, Detroit, Washington and Pittsburgh (despite some terrible years included for Pit & Wsh in that sample and a bunch of 1st overall picks.)

I suppose in a 15 year span, SOMEONE has to be the worst of the worst, but that it's the Oilers despite 4 first overall picks and despite now almost 7 years of McDavid? That's terrible. I was actually surprised to see we are still under True .500 in the McDavid era. Honestly, it is ridiculous that Katz has allowed this to happen under his watch. The Lowe era needs to end here. The sooner the better.

By the way, used this to generate these numbers:
https://www.nhl.com/stats/teams?reportType=season&season From=20152016&seasonTo=20212022&gameType=2&filte r=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=points,wins&page=0&page Size=50

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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 Re: Worst of the Worst [message #799182 is a reply to message #799179 ]
Mon, 07 February 2022 12:43 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently offline Adam
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Also - because why not - I looked at this by GM tenure:

Kevin Lowe (2000-2008) - 263-217-47-47 (13th out of 30)

Lowe is the beneficiary of a couple of things - first, he was left in pretty good shape by Sather, and secondly, there were a lot more old school GMs back then. No one used much for analytics, and they didn't have to deal with cap management. Still, good on him for being an average GM in his era.

Steve Tambellini (2008-13) - 141-177-51 (30th out of 30)

Tambellini didn't have the same good fortune to be given a solid team, but man, he sure didn't do much to improve it in that time. Worth noting, that Lowe isn't much removed here. When they hired Tambellini, they said that they had to give him the GM role because his Vancouver contract didn't allow him to leave for an AGM role. Lowe's record including this period goes from 13th down to 26th (404-406-47-93).

Craig MacTavish (2013-15) - 53-88-23 (29th out of 30)

Surely no one could do as badly as Tambellini, especially with three first overall picks in the mix...oh good lord. MacTavish isn't last in the league only because the Sabres were ridiculously bad including an intentional faceplant to try to get Connor McDavid. His points percentage is significantly worst than even the Tambellini era. It's ugly, and this came at a point where the team believed they were ready to start winning again.

Peter Chiarelli (2015-2019) - 149-147-32 (23rd out of 30)

All the incompetence of the prior eras gave Chiarelli an opportunity to start off with a team boasting McDavid, Draisaitl, Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle, Klefbom, Yakupov. And it does give the team a lift. Sadly, not a big lift and given the assets that he had, 22nd in the league is miserably bad. (I have given him full credit for 2018-19 season, despite his dismissal in January.)

Ken Holland (2019-present) - 95-60-14 (12th of 31)

So some good news? The Oilers aren't in the dumps of the league any more! Of course, that's entirely driven by a generational player and another superstar who were already in the organization basically going supernova. And if you compare to the same point in Crosby & Ovechkin's careers, the Penguins were 3rd in the league over the 5th to 7th seasons, and the Capitals were one spot better in 2nd. The team is lagging to where it should be and the window won't be open forever. But at least we're not dead last any more?


Just as a point of reference, I did look at Sather's time too (1980-2000). On both points and points percentage, the Oilers are 4th in the entire league, even considering the dark days in the 1990s and the fact that for half his tenure, the team couldn't afford to compete with some of the other powerhouses in the league. Sather was a pretty good GM relative to his peers.

[Updated on: Mon, 07 February 2022 12:50]

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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 Re: Worst of the Worst [message #799183 is a reply to message #799182 ]
Mon, 07 February 2022 13:04 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Dragon_Matt is currently offline Dragon_Matt
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I feel like going 1980-2000 is too broad a space. Sather reaped the rewards of what he created in the 80s, so he does deserve credit there, however I feel like you need to split him into 80's and 90's.
the 90's are a much MUCH different picture.
90's Edmonton Oilers
384 wins 430 losses, 121 ties, 15 OT - good for 19th.
80's Edmonton Oilers
456 wins, 239 losses, 105 toes - good for 1st overall

Yes, we were at a point where the Oilers were a farm team for the real NHL, but it does show that he wasn't a 'great' GM for the second half of his tenure here.

[Updated on: Mon, 07 February 2022 13:05]

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 Re: Worst of the Worst [message #799185 is a reply to message #799183 ]
Mon, 07 February 2022 15:23 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently offline Adam
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Dragon_Matt wrote on Mon, 07 February 2022 13:04

I feel like going 1980-2000 is too broad a space. Sather reaped the rewards of what he created in the 80s, so he does deserve credit there, however I feel like you need to split him into 80's and 90's.
the 90's are a much MUCH different picture.
90's Edmonton Oilers
384 wins 430 losses, 121 ties, 15 OT - good for 19th.
80's Edmonton Oilers
456 wins, 239 losses, 105 toes - good for 1st overall

Yes, we were at a point where the Oilers were a farm team for the real NHL, but it does show that he wasn't a 'great' GM for the second half of his tenure here.


He was forced to retool by an owner who not just was unable to afford to keep everyone, but was insisting on getting cash back as a part of the trades for every major player they dealt, while payrolls got out of hand. We did manage to retool such that the team was in the playoffs the last four seasons Sather was here.

He still managed to find good deals - Tikkanen for Weight, MacTavish for Marchant, Corson (or more specifically the picks we would have gotten for Corson) for Grier and CuJo, a pick for Jason Smith. The team he built in the late 1990s kept us competitive through the early 2000s.

He did lapse on drafting, allowing our head scout to work from Mexico and so we had some struggles there, and certainly, Sather was past his prime by the time he went to New York. What has followed here though? Blech.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

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 Re: Worst of the Worst [message #799187 is a reply to message #799179 ]
Mon, 07 February 2022 15:31 Go to previous messageGo to next message
oilfan94 is currently offline oilfan94
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I think another interesting thing to analyze would be other teams with historically or at least very bad stretches, but were able to become competitive again consistently, and what it took for that to happen. Somehow I feel like the answer is probably a change in ownership in many cases.

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 Re: Worst of the Worst [message #799190 is a reply to message #799187 ]
Mon, 07 February 2022 16:03 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently offline Adam
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oilfan94 wrote on Mon, 07 February 2022 15:31

I think another interesting thing to analyze would be other teams with historically or at least very bad stretches, but were able to become competitive again consistently, and what it took for that to happen. Somehow I feel like the answer is probably a change in ownership in many cases.


This checks out to a point, although it doesn't always happen overnight.

Chicago was bad at the end of the Dollar Bill Wirtz era. Bill dies, the team immediately changes tack and does much better (although undoubtedly helped by the infusion of talent from being bad for a while.

Lemieux and friends took over a hapless Penguins organization while Ted Leonsis took over Washington in 1999. Both had some lean years yet, but they definitely have headed in the right direction since.

Florida's clearly benefitted from their last ownership change, and it's hard to argue that Carolina isn't seeing some good results too.

That makes some sense. Your ownership is the guy hiring the GM or POHO and setting the tone. He's the one who's deciding just how much rope a management team has - which is not an easy question. If someone is bad at their job, the sooner you replace them the better. But not every competent GM or coach is going to immediately be successful so if you're too knee-jerk, you could fire someone who is doing the right things simply because the results have yet to follow.

I think Katz has struggled as Oilers owner. It's been a pretty tough period of his life. He bought the team in 2008 - just as it was going in to a pronounced slump. He was buddies with MacTavish and Lowe and very defensive of them as they took significant criticism in those years. That just brought scorn down on him from the client base, and I don't think Katz is a guy who takes being mocked and criticized well. The arena wrangling didn't help. He moved away from Edmonton, got some other interests including movie-making, and then had the whole casting couch thing with the scammer blow up in his lap. Any time you're making it on to TMZ with personal life things, that's not good. I do not doubt that that caused him some level of marital stress. Then he got sick with a weird disease that ate a bunch of his face. I think it's fair to say in the last 7-8 years, he's almost been an absent owner. I don't think he's had his finger on the pulse for ages, and unfortunately, the guys who he leans on in his stead are all awful.

I don't think Katz is going anywhere. I don't think there's any buyer in Edmonton who's willing to spend what it would take to get the company and then to keep it here, so we're stuck with him. Hopefully he decides at some point that he doesn't like his toy broken all the time and decides to make some changes and possibly leans on someone - other than Kevin Lowe with his old Team Canada rolodex or Bob Nicholson just bumbling around hoping a solution falls in his lap - to find the next solution.


"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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 Re: Worst of the Worst [message #799209 is a reply to message #799190 ]
Tue, 08 February 2022 07:15 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Mike is currently offline Mike
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Our best hope might be Daryl saying "fork it" and just giving control of the team to his son Harrison. He has no memories of the 80s Glory Years. Though Bob and Kevin have been around for a good chunk of his life, so maybe not...

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 Re: Worst of the Worst [message #799213 is a reply to message #799209 ]
Tue, 08 February 2022 12:07 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi is currently offline CrusaderPi
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Mike wrote on Tue, 08 February 2022 07:15

Our best hope might be Daryl saying "fork it" and just giving control of the team to his son Harrison. He has no memories of the 80s Glory Years. Though Bob and Kevin have been around for a good chunk of his life, so maybe not...

They've been around for his whole life and all he's seen is losing, which is probably nearly the only losing he's seen. Every rich kid in every movie I've ever seen would be absolutely disgusted by that.

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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 Re: Worst of the Worst [message #799214 is a reply to message #799213 ]
Tue, 08 February 2022 12:10 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently offline Kr55
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CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 08 February 2022 12:07

Mike wrote on Tue, 08 February 2022 07:15

Our best hope might be Daryl saying "fork it" and just giving control of the team to his son Harrison. He has no memories of the 80s Glory Years. Though Bob and Kevin have been around for a good chunk of his life, so maybe not...

They've been around for his whole life and all he's seen is losing, which is probably nearly the only losing he's seen. Every rich kid in every movie I've ever seen would be absolutely disgusted by that.


He still saw us get within 1 period of winning the cup!

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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 Re: Worst of the Worst [message #799219 is a reply to message #799214 ]
Tue, 08 February 2022 14:10 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently offline Adam
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Kr55 wrote on Tue, 08 February 2022 12:10

CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 08 February 2022 12:07

Mike wrote on Tue, 08 February 2022 07:15

Our best hope might be Daryl saying "fork it" and just giving control of the team to his son Harrison. He has no memories of the 80s Glory Years. Though Bob and Kevin have been around for a good chunk of his life, so maybe not...

They've been around for his whole life and all he's seen is losing, which is probably nearly the only losing he's seen. Every rich kid in every movie I've ever seen would be absolutely disgusted by that.


He still saw us get within 1 period of winning the cup!


His Dad wasn't the owner yet then though...

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

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 Re: Worst of the Worst [message #799221 is a reply to message #799219 ]
Tue, 08 February 2022 14:58 Go to previous messageGo to next message
nullterm is currently offline nullterm
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Adam wrote on Tue, 08 February 2022 13:10

Kr55 wrote on Tue, 08 February 2022 12:10

CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 08 February 2022 12:07

Mike wrote on Tue, 08 February 2022 07:15

Our best hope might be Daryl saying "fork it" and just giving control of the team to his son Harrison. He has no memories of the 80s Glory Years. Though Bob and Kevin have been around for a good chunk of his life, so maybe not...

They've been around for his whole life and all he's seen is losing, which is probably nearly the only losing he's seen. Every rich kid in every movie I've ever seen would be absolutely disgusted by that.


He still saw us get within 1 period of winning the cup!


His Dad wasn't the owner yet then though...


Pi, be careful what you wish for, never know the inheritor's motives...
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/resizer/YQVFP0jIpKIrJOC9qWEZn-FChSc=/415x233/top/arc-anglerfish-arc2-prod-tronc.s3.amazonaws.com/public/YREGN4VUARAWFB4XV5DOCFAZLU.jpg

Illegitimi non carborundum.

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 Re: Worst of the Worst [message #799224 is a reply to message #799221 ]
Tue, 08 February 2022 15:31 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi is currently offline CrusaderPi
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nullterm wrote on Tue, 08 February 2022 14:58

Adam wrote on Tue, 08 February 2022 13:10

Kr55 wrote on Tue, 08 February 2022 12:10

CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 08 February 2022 12:07

Mike wrote on Tue, 08 February 2022 07:15

Our best hope might be Daryl saying "fork it" and just giving control of the team to his son Harrison. He has no memories of the 80s Glory Years. Though Bob and Kevin have been around for a good chunk of his life, so maybe not...

They've been around for his whole life and all he's seen is losing, which is probably nearly the only losing he's seen. Every rich kid in every movie I've ever seen would be absolutely disgusted by that.


He still saw us get within 1 period of winning the cup!


His Dad wasn't the owner yet then though...


Pi, be careful what you wish for, never know the inheritor's motives...
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/resizer/YQVFP0jIpKIrJOC9qWEZn-FChSc=/415x233/top/arc-anglerfish-arc2-prod-tronc.s3.amazonaws.com/public/YREGN4VUARAWFB4XV5DOCFAZLU.jpg

I don't think dad pretended to be interested in moving the Guardians to Seattle for 4 minutes to get Jacobs Field built.

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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 Re: Worst of the Worst [message #799235 is a reply to message #799219 ]
Tue, 08 February 2022 18:25 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently offline Kr55
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Adam wrote on Tue, 08 February 2022 14:10

Kr55 wrote on Tue, 08 February 2022 12:10

CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 08 February 2022 12:07

Mike wrote on Tue, 08 February 2022 07:15

Our best hope might be Daryl saying "fork it" and just giving control of the team to his son Harrison. He has no memories of the 80s Glory Years. Though Bob and Kevin have been around for a good chunk of his life, so maybe not...

They've been around for his whole life and all he's seen is losing, which is probably nearly the only losing he's seen. Every rich kid in every movie I've ever seen would be absolutely disgusted by that.


He still saw us get within 1 period of winning the cup!


His Dad wasn't the owner yet then though...


Still got the architect of that masterpiece in the 2nd highest position in the org.

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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 Re: Worst of the Worst [message #799305 is a reply to message #799235 ]
Wed, 09 February 2022 05:23 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Mike is currently offline Mike
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Didn't want to start a new thread, but what happens if we miss the playoffs this year?

A couple of months in at the end of November, we were at around a 95% chance to make the playoffs. With the "weak" Pacific it was a foregone conclusion before the season started that we would make the playoffs, only question was if we would be able to wrest the division crown from the Knights, and that was just confirmed with our high flying start.

Well, here we now sit in February in an all too familiar position - on the outside looking in. Looking at a few of these projection sites, I see us anywhere from 42% to 55%, so let's say right around 50%. Easiest way to put it, we basically need to be better than at least 2 of Calgary, Anaheim, and LA between now and the end of the year. Anyone here willing to put their life on the line that we can do that?

So what if we miss the playoffs? Does something happen? Or do we just extend Koskinen and Keith on July 2nd and call it an off-season?

There HAS to be a major bloodletting if they don't even make the playoffs...right? After an off season with $20M in cap space, the season we were told that Holland would finally be free of Chiarelli's mess and able to make this team his own, going in needing at the very least a solid starting goalie. In the off season where there were I believe more goalies available/moved than in any off season in history, we still managed to yet again start the season with Smith and Koskinen. And a 38 year old Duncan Keith. And no more cap space...

Surely this would rank up there with one of the most disastrous seasons for a team that has had its fair share of disastrous seasons.

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 Re: Worst of the Worst [message #799309 is a reply to message #799305 ]
Wed, 09 February 2022 08:50 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Rocksteady is currently offline Rocksteady
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Mike wrote on Wed, 09 February 2022 05:23

There HAS to be a major bloodletting if they don't even make the playoffs...right? After an off season with $20M in cap space, the season we were told that Holland would finally be free of Chiarelli's mess and able to make this team his own, going in needing at the very least a solid starting goalie. In the off season where there were I believe more goalies available/moved than in any off season in history, we still managed to yet again start the season with Smith and Koskinen. And a 38 year old Duncan Keith. And no more cap space...

Surely this would rank up there with one of the most disastrous seasons for a team that has had its fair share of disastrous seasons.


You speak of blood letting. I'm not sure how much of the roster you can cast off because of bad deals. Every GM in the league looks at our motley crew and says, no thanks. Kassian and Kokinen deals were prime examples which Koski is off the books after this year. You have Barrie with a fresh new deal and he's just under performing in all ways. Duncan Keith with another year of 5.5 on the books. Cody Ceci.. our defence is wrought with just bad deals that either go too long or too high of a cap hit. So buy outs? Then you have dead cap space, so we have Lucic for 750k, and Neal for 3 years at 1.9 each year after this one and even Sekera for another 2 at 1.5.

Side thought.. Doesn't it make you sick we are paying for Neal and Lucic since they were traded for each other?

Back to my point.. there isn't much blood to drain from this crew. Or forwards are in a lot better shape save for Kassian, Shore, and Derek Ryan.

I think we have a few more years sitting on our hands.

The very definition of insanity is doing the exact same thing expecting different results.

Generally Disappointed.

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 Re: Worst of the Worst [message #799310 is a reply to message #799309 ]
Wed, 09 February 2022 08:57 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Mike is currently offline Mike
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Rocksteady wrote on Wed, 09 February 2022 11:50

You speak of blood letting. I'm not sure how much of the roster you can cast off because of bad deals. Every GM in the league looks at our motley crew and says, no thanks. Kassian and Kokinen deals were prime examples which Koski is off the books after this year. You have Barrie with a fresh new deal and he's just under performing in all ways. Duncan Keith with another year of 5.5 on the books. Cody Ceci.. our defence is wrought with just bad deals that either go too long or too high of a cap hit. So buy outs? Then you have dead cap space, so we have Lucic for 750k, and Neal for 3 years at 1.9 each year after this one and even Sekera for another 2 at 1.5.

Side thought.. Doesn't it make you sick we are paying for Neal and Lucic since they were traded for each other?

Back to my point.. there isn't much blood to drain from this crew. Or forwards are in a lot better shape save for Kassian, Shore, and Derek Ryan.

I think we have a few more years sitting on our hands.



Sorry - you misunderstood. I meant bloodletting as in Tippett, Holland, Bob Nicholson, and most importantly to me, Kevin "not in hockey operations" Lowe!

And no - I don't want any buyouts. Get creative and find someone to take your junk if you must. Other teams manage to get it done.

Sekera and Pouliot buyouts were stupid. Not getting the Hawks to at least take Neal for Keith was mind boggling.

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 Re: Worst of the Worst [message #799312 is a reply to message #799310 ]
Wed, 09 February 2022 09:04 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Rocksteady is currently offline Rocksteady
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Mike wrote on Wed, 09 February 2022 08:57

Sorry - you misunderstood. I meant bloodletting as in Tippett, Holland, Bob Nicholson, and most importantly to me, Kevin "not in hockey operations" Lowe!

And no - I don't want any buyouts. Get creative and find someone to take your junk if you must. Other teams manage to get it done.

Sekera and Pouliot buyouts were stupid. Not getting the Hawks to at least take Neal for Keith was mind boggling.


Ah.. and your point is further emboldened. Holland on up are trash.

The very definition of insanity is doing the exact same thing expecting different results.

Generally Disappointed.

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 Re: Worst of the Worst [message #799314 is a reply to message #799309 ]
Wed, 09 February 2022 09:19 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently offline Adam
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Rocksteady wrote on Wed, 09 February 2022 08:50

Mike wrote on Wed, 09 February 2022 05:23

There HAS to be a major bloodletting if they don't even make the playoffs...right? After an off season with $20M in cap space, the season we were told that Holland would finally be free of Chiarelli's mess and able to make this team his own, going in needing at the very least a solid starting goalie. In the off season where there were I believe more goalies available/moved than in any off season in history, we still managed to yet again start the season with Smith and Koskinen. And a 38 year old Duncan Keith. And no more cap space...

Surely this would rank up there with one of the most disastrous seasons for a team that has had its fair share of disastrous seasons.


You speak of blood letting. I'm not sure how much of the roster you can cast off because of bad deals. Every GM in the league looks at our motley crew and says, no thanks. Kassian and Kokinen deals were prime examples which Koski is off the books after this year. You have Barrie with a fresh new deal and he's just under performing in all ways. Duncan Keith with another year of 5.5 on the books. Cody Ceci.. our defence is wrought with just bad deals that either go too long or too high of a cap hit. So buy outs? Then you have dead cap space, so we have Lucic for 750k, and Neal for 3 years at 1.9 each year after this one and even Sekera for another 2 at 1.5.

Side thought.. Doesn't it make you sick we are paying for Neal and Lucic since they were traded for each other?

Back to my point.. there isn't much blood to drain from this crew. Or forwards are in a lot better shape save for Kassian, Shore, and Derek Ryan.

I think we have a few more years sitting on our hands.



Well, I did point this out last summer. Holland has tied our hands by giving everyone multi-year deals (other than the young cheap guys like Puljujarvi and Yamamoto). We don't have a lot of room on the roster or under the cap next year because the whole damn team is signed for then. Lagesson and Russell (UFA) are the only free agents on defence - even Koekkoek got two years there, and on forward, it's Kane (UFA), Turris (UFA, Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, McLeod, Perlini and Benson. Shore and Ryan both got two year pacts too. In goal, Koskinen (UFA) is gone, unless the Oilers miss out on their top choice and we get to day 3 of free agency without a bite, then I expect him back on a two year deal.

There is a way to fix it though, for a savvy GM with the willingness to make some hard decisions.

- I firmly believe there's still a market for Zack Kassian, because the Oilers aren't the only team with dumb management out there. Find someone else who believes he can be Tom Wilson Lite and send him away. That saves $3.2MM - possibly enough to sign Puljujarvi who's numbers plateaued after a hot start to the year.
- Tyson Barrie can likely find a home too - the goal in that trade is probably just don't get stuck carrying salary. It would be great to get something for him, but if he's just traded for nothing? No problem. There's $4.5MM more saved.
- Convince Mike Smith he's done battling and that its time to hang them up. That's an extra $2.2MM in savings there.

Those three moves get you an extra $10MM to spend. I'd also lean on Duncan Keith and figure out if he was interested in seeing a lot more of his boy next year playing beer league in the Okanagan as opposed to taking $5.538MM from us. He's been better than hoped for, but that was a low bar and he's still the culprit on an out-sized number of goals against. If he could be convinced to leave, that's a lot of money that we can spend on a good replacement. I might be tempted to spend it on someone solid for the right side, and look at one of the kids to make the jump on the left.

I'd also fire Tippett and Playfair pronto, and put someone in who doesn't make decisions based entirely on the number of NHL games played, or based on one play over the course of a game. I think someone better behind the bench is probably worth 10 points over the course of the year and gives you a fighter's chance in the playoffs, where Tippett really falls flat. Nice thing for him coaching Arizona all those years is that he never needed much of a playoff strategy! He's trying to bring the same mindset here and get a little much needed time off in the Spring...

I mean, it's not ideal, but if you were to add $15MM cap space to the 8MM they already have, and then re-sign Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, McLeod, Perlini and Benson (or alternatively for the last two get other dirt cheap players who have potential to outperform their contracts) - plus promote the best LHD, and then sign or trade for a decent RHD and get a starting netminder? That's not an undoable task. I think a really good GM could make this happen.



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 Re: Worst of the Worst [message #799315 is a reply to message #799314 ]
Wed, 09 February 2022 09:30 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrudeRemarks is currently offline CrudeRemarks
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Adam wrote on Wed, 09 February 2022 09:19

Rocksteady wrote on Wed, 09 February 2022 08:50

Mike wrote on Wed, 09 February 2022 05:23

There HAS to be a major bloodletting if they don't even make the playoffs...right? After an off season with $20M in cap space, the season we were told that Holland would finally be free of Chiarelli's mess and able to make this team his own, going in needing at the very least a solid starting goalie. In the off season where there were I believe more goalies available/moved than in any off season in history, we still managed to yet again start the season with Smith and Koskinen. And a 38 year old Duncan Keith. And no more cap space...

Surely this would rank up there with one of the most disastrous seasons for a team that has had its fair share of disastrous seasons.


You speak of blood letting. I'm not sure how much of the roster you can cast off because of bad deals. Every GM in the league looks at our motley crew and says, no thanks. Kassian and Kokinen deals were prime examples which Koski is off the books after this year. You have Barrie with a fresh new deal and he's just under performing in all ways. Duncan Keith with another year of 5.5 on the books. Cody Ceci.. our defence is wrought with just bad deals that either go too long or too high of a cap hit. So buy outs? Then you have dead cap space, so we have Lucic for 750k, and Neal for 3 years at 1.9 each year after this one and even Sekera for another 2 at 1.5.

Side thought.. Doesn't it make you sick we are paying for Neal and Lucic since they were traded for each other?

Back to my point.. there isn't much blood to drain from this crew. Or forwards are in a lot better shape save for Kassian, Shore, and Derek Ryan.

I think we have a few more years sitting on our hands.



Well, I did point this out last summer. Holland has tied our hands by giving everyone multi-year deals (other than the young cheap guys like Puljujarvi and Yamamoto). We don't have a lot of room on the roster or under the cap next year because the whole damn team is signed for then. Lagesson and Russell (UFA) are the only free agents on defence - even Koekkoek got two years there, and on forward, it's Kane (UFA), Turris (UFA, Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, McLeod, Perlini and Benson. Shore and Ryan both got two year pacts too. In goal, Koskinen (UFA) is gone, unless the Oilers miss out on their top choice and we get to day 3 of free agency without a bite, then I expect him back on a two year deal.

There is a way to fix it though, for a savvy GM with the willingness to make some hard decisions.

- I firmly believe there's still a market for Zack Kassian, because the Oilers aren't the only team with dumb management out there. Find someone else who believes he can be Tom Wilson Lite and send him away. That saves $3.2MM - possibly enough to sign Puljujarvi who's numbers plateaued after a hot start to the year.
- Tyson Barrie can likely find a home too - the goal in that trade is probably just don't get stuck carrying salary. It would be great to get something for him, but if he's just traded for nothing? No problem. There's $4.5MM more saved.
- Convince Mike Smith he's done battling and that its time to hang them up. That's an extra $2.2MM in savings there.

Those three moves get you an extra $10MM to spend. I'd also lean on Duncan Keith and figure out if he was interested in seeing a lot more of his boy next year playing beer league in the Okanagan as opposed to taking $5.538MM from us. He's been better than hoped for, but that was a low bar and he's still the culprit on an out-sized number of goals against. If he could be convinced to leave, that's a lot of money that we can spend on a good replacement. I might be tempted to spend it on someone solid for the right side, and look at one of the kids to make the jump on the left.

I'd also fire Tippett and Playfair pronto, and put someone in who doesn't make decisions based entirely on the number of NHL games played, or based on one play over the course of a game. I think someone better behind the bench is probably worth 10 points over the course of the year and gives you a fighter's chance in the playoffs, where Tippett really falls flat. Nice thing for him coaching Arizona all those years is that he never needed much of a playoff strategy! He's trying to bring the same mindset here and get a little much needed time off in the Spring...

I mean, it's not ideal, but if you were to add $15MM cap space to the 8MM they already have, and then re-sign Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, McLeod, Perlini and Benson (or alternatively for the last two get other dirt cheap players who have potential to outperform their contracts) - plus promote the best LHD, and then sign or trade for a decent RHD and get a starting netminder? That's not an undoable task. I think a really good GM could make this happen.



The problem with any coach firing is I've heard that the only replacement solution they're considering is Gulutzan. Not that there are a ton of other options out there, and I guess I prefer him over Babcock, but if the new coach is just the current assistant then why bother with the change mid-season.

You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you just might find, you can get a lottery pick.


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 Re: Worst of the Worst [message #799316 is a reply to message #799315 ]
Wed, 09 February 2022 09:32 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi is currently offline CrusaderPi
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CrudeRemarks wrote on Wed, 09 February 2022 09:30


The problem with any coach firing is I've heard that the only replacement solution they're considering is Gulutzan. Not that there are a ton of other options out there, and I guess I prefer him over Babcock, but if the new coach is just the current assistant then why bother with the change mid-season.

I can handle this one. The goal isn't to make the team better, the goal is to keep people buying tickets and merch and beer when the province finally allows us to drink away our hockey sorrow. Any impact to the hockey team is purely coincidental.



Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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 Re: Worst of the Worst [message #799320 is a reply to message #799316 ]
Wed, 09 February 2022 09:39 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrudeRemarks is currently offline CrudeRemarks
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CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 09 February 2022 09:32

CrudeRemarks wrote on Wed, 09 February 2022 09:30


The problem with any coach firing is I've heard that the only replacement solution they're considering is Gulutzan. Not that there are a ton of other options out there, and I guess I prefer him over Babcock, but if the new coach is just the current assistant then why bother with the change mid-season.

I can handle this one. The goal isn't to make the team better, the goal is to keep people buying tickets and merch and beer when the province finally allows us to drink away our hockey sorrow. Any impact to the hockey team is purely coincidental.



I believe it. Things are going to get really ugly around here when McD decides he's had enough of incompetence.

Remember just before they won the 2015 draft lottery how bad it was? And that was arguably while they could still say they were in a "rebuild"

You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you just might find, you can get a lottery pick.


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 Re: Worst of the Worst [message #799321 is a reply to message #799320 ]
Wed, 09 February 2022 09:51 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi is currently offline CrusaderPi
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CrudeRemarks wrote on Wed, 09 February 2022 09:39

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 09 February 2022 09:32

CrudeRemarks wrote on Wed, 09 February 2022 09:30


The problem with any coach firing is I've heard that the only replacement solution they're considering is Gulutzan. Not that there are a ton of other options out there, and I guess I prefer him over Babcock, but if the new coach is just the current assistant then why bother with the change mid-season.

I can handle this one. The goal isn't to make the team better, the goal is to keep people buying tickets and merch and beer when the province finally allows us to drink away our hockey sorrow. Any impact to the hockey team is purely coincidental.



I believe it. Things are going to get really ugly around here when McD decides he's had enough of incompetence.

Remember just before they won the 2015 draft lottery how bad it was? And that was arguably while they could still say they were in a "rebuild"

The McDavid lottery balls saved their bacon. Season ticket holders were in full revolt while the team was still claiming to be in its absurd sell out streak with equally absurd season ticket wait list.

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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 Re: Worst of the Worst [message #799328 is a reply to message #799321 ]
Wed, 09 February 2022 11:52 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Dragon_Matt is currently offline Dragon_Matt
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I hear MacTavish is looking for a job again.

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 Re: Worst of the Worst [message #799335 is a reply to message #799315 ]
Wed, 09 February 2022 15:45 Go to previous message
Adam is currently offline Adam
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CrudeRemarks wrote on Wed, 09 February 2022 09:30


The problem with any coach firing is I've heard that the only replacement solution they're considering is Gulutzan. Not that there are a ton of other options out there, and I guess I prefer him over Babcock, but if the new coach is just the current assistant then why bother with the change mid-season.


I think part of that is just the same idiots trying to tell you that you shouldn't want the team to do something because they'd have still screwed it up. Like when they say don't worry that we traded the Barzal pick because we wouldn't have picked him (or Chabot or Connor) but instead picked the vanilla Erickson Ek (which is still better than trading for Griffin Reinhart, but I digress).

The team would of course have the ability to hire anyone they wanted to replace Tippett, and probably should have been having real conversations about that for some time including potentially discussions with potential candidates, given how the last two months have gone, and really the last two playoffs too. If they decided to screw it up because it's just change for the sake of change? Well, that's on the GM and a good indication that he should be fired too.

For what it's worth, Gulutzan might be an improvement on Tippett. Hard to say with any certainty, but where this team is at with the level of players on this team? It's hard to believe he could do a lot worse.

Of course, they could always hire Hitchcock again instead..chances are the next 60+ coach we hire will have the winning formula.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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