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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789175 is a reply to message #789131 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 23:34 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Goose is currently offline Goose
Messages: 1098
Registered: October 2006
Location: Vancouver
1 Cup
Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 12:43



For what it's worth, I don't hold this against Duncan Keith at all. I wish the guy well, and I hope he has a major bounceback here. It's just not a good bet, and the Oilers pushed in a ton of chips on a bet that is a long-shot but also pays only mediocre return in the best case scenario.

I actually love the conditional pick part from Chicago. That so feels like the icing on the cake. "You know, Kenny, we think this is really giving you the missing ingredient to go from first round sweep to Stanley Cup contender. We're basically gifting you the Stanley Cup, so really, you should upgrade that pick for when Duncan leads you to the promised land." It hearkens back to the extra pick in the Pronger deal, and Lowe telling Burke that he's basically giving him a Cup with that trade.

Maybe the Oilers truly feel that the 'Hawks WERE doing us a solid here...SIGH.


It's not even really about how Keith performs. He could have a decent season here and fit in on a limited role.

It's still a bad deal given that Chicago had to move him, and quickly, and Edmonton held all the cards. Holland talking about the price being significantly higher if they were going to get Chicago to retain salary is asinine. Chicago had zero other options. Their choices were turf the deal and protect Keith, or accept whatever the Oilers were offering. The problem here is that Holland heard that Keith was available, decided he wanted him and was willing to pay basically any price to get him.

Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789177 is a reply to message #789175 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 23:39 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently offline Adam
Messages: 7177
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB
6 Cups
Goose wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 23:34

Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 12:43



For what it's worth, I don't hold this against Duncan Keith at all. I wish the guy well, and I hope he has a major bounceback here. It's just not a good bet, and the Oilers pushed in a ton of chips on a bet that is a long-shot but also pays only mediocre return in the best case scenario.

I actually love the conditional pick part from Chicago. That so feels like the icing on the cake. "You know, Kenny, we think this is really giving you the missing ingredient to go from first round sweep to Stanley Cup contender. We're basically gifting you the Stanley Cup, so really, you should upgrade that pick for when Duncan leads you to the promised land." It hearkens back to the extra pick in the Pronger deal, and Lowe telling Burke that he's basically giving him a Cup with that trade.

Maybe the Oilers truly feel that the 'Hawks WERE doing us a solid here...SIGH.


It's not even really about how Keith performs. He could have a decent season here and fit in on a limited role.

It's still a bad deal given that Chicago had to move him, and quickly, and Edmonton held all the cards. Holland talking about the price being significantly higher if they were going to get Chicago to retain salary is asinine. Chicago had zero other options. Their choices were turf the deal and protect Keith, or accept whatever the Oilers were offering. The problem here is that Holland heard that Keith was available, decided he wanted him and was willing to pay basically any price to get him.


And not only that - instead of negotiating and grinding Chicago - they started trying to position this for the fans in Edmonton!!! What a gift to Bowman. When those leaks happen, they have to know there's only one place that can come from. and the marching orders were so clear to media guys who got the leak...it just made it clear as day that Holland wanted Duncan Keith and would eventually pay what Chicago was asking.

What a team.

Edit to add - here's Romulus' excellent piece on this. Very well-written and argued:


https://romtable.wordpress.com/2021/07/13/ship-of-fools-leve rage-and-the-cult-of-the-gm/

[Updated on: Tue, 13 July 2021 23:46]

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789178 is a reply to message #789177 ]
Wed, 14 July 2021 00:35 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently offline Kr55
Messages: 10779
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton
6 Cups
Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 23:39

Goose wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 23:34

Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 12:43



For what it's worth, I don't hold this against Duncan Keith at all. I wish the guy well, and I hope he has a major bounceback here. It's just not a good bet, and the Oilers pushed in a ton of chips on a bet that is a long-shot but also pays only mediocre return in the best case scenario.

I actually love the conditional pick part from Chicago. That so feels like the icing on the cake. "You know, Kenny, we think this is really giving you the missing ingredient to go from first round sweep to Stanley Cup contender. We're basically gifting you the Stanley Cup, so really, you should upgrade that pick for when Duncan leads you to the promised land." It hearkens back to the extra pick in the Pronger deal, and Lowe telling Burke that he's basically giving him a Cup with that trade.

Maybe the Oilers truly feel that the 'Hawks WERE doing us a solid here...SIGH.


It's not even really about how Keith performs. He could have a decent season here and fit in on a limited role.

It's still a bad deal given that Chicago had to move him, and quickly, and Edmonton held all the cards. Holland talking about the price being significantly higher if they were going to get Chicago to retain salary is asinine. Chicago had zero other options. Their choices were turf the deal and protect Keith, or accept whatever the Oilers were offering. The problem here is that Holland heard that Keith was available, decided he wanted him and was willing to pay basically any price to get him.


And not only that - instead of negotiating and grinding Chicago - they started trying to position this for the fans in Edmonton!!! What a gift to Bowman. When those leaks happen, they have to know there's only one place that can come from. and the marching orders were so clear to media guys who got the leak...it just made it clear as day that Holland wanted Duncan Keith and would eventually pay what Chicago was asking.

What a team.

Edit to add - here's Romulus' excellent piece on this. Very well-written and argued:


https://romtable.wordpress.com/2021/07/13/ship-of-fools-leve rage-and-the-cult-of-the-gm/


So, what's the theory here? Holland has respect but Bowman doesn't? Because we clearly got taken advantage of and everyone can see it except people that feel compelled to apologize for the Oilers.

Bowman helped get Chia fired by taking advantage of us too, dumping Brandon Manning on us when Chia was flailing. Bowman was desperate to dump that contract and put us to shame. One of the saddest moments of this franchise was McDavid feeling the need to personally call Manning and reassure him he wanted him on the team and felt he would be able to help the team win. Some months later Manning is dishing out racial slurs on our minor league team.

I think Holland just stinks at negotiating, period. Org convinced themselves they HAD to have Keith and Bowman could smell it. Zero respect, even going so far to make us create a conditional pick and tie our success to Bowman possibly getting more. Zero conditions for us on anything based on how much Jones plays. Not a penny of salary retention, nothing. Zero respect at all, just embarrassment. A hit and run. And we'll happily take his call again the next time he wants to dump a contract, I'm sure.

[Updated on: Wed, 14 July 2021 00:36]

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789179 is a reply to message #789178 ]
Wed, 14 July 2021 01:28 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently offline Adam
Messages: 7177
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB
6 Cups
Kr55 wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 00:35

Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 23:39

Goose wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 23:34

Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 12:43



For what it's worth, I don't hold this against Duncan Keith at all. I wish the guy well, and I hope he has a major bounceback here. It's just not a good bet, and the Oilers pushed in a ton of chips on a bet that is a long-shot but also pays only mediocre return in the best case scenario.

I actually love the conditional pick part from Chicago. That so feels like the icing on the cake. "You know, Kenny, we think this is really giving you the missing ingredient to go from first round sweep to Stanley Cup contender. We're basically gifting you the Stanley Cup, so really, you should upgrade that pick for when Duncan leads you to the promised land." It hearkens back to the extra pick in the Pronger deal, and Lowe telling Burke that he's basically giving him a Cup with that trade.

Maybe the Oilers truly feel that the 'Hawks WERE doing us a solid here...SIGH.


It's not even really about how Keith performs. He could have a decent season here and fit in on a limited role.

It's still a bad deal given that Chicago had to move him, and quickly, and Edmonton held all the cards. Holland talking about the price being significantly higher if they were going to get Chicago to retain salary is asinine. Chicago had zero other options. Their choices were turf the deal and protect Keith, or accept whatever the Oilers were offering. The problem here is that Holland heard that Keith was available, decided he wanted him and was willing to pay basically any price to get him.


And not only that - instead of negotiating and grinding Chicago - they started trying to position this for the fans in Edmonton!!! What a gift to Bowman. When those leaks happen, they have to know there's only one place that can come from. and the marching orders were so clear to media guys who got the leak...it just made it clear as day that Holland wanted Duncan Keith and would eventually pay what Chicago was asking.

What a team.

Edit to add - here's Romulus' excellent piece on this. Very well-written and argued:


https://romtable.wordpress.com/2021/07/13/ship-of-fools-leve rage-and-the-cult-of-the-gm/


So, what's the theory here? Holland has respect but Bowman doesn't? Because we clearly got taken advantage of and everyone can see it except people that feel compelled to apologize for the Oilers.

Bowman helped get Chia fired by taking advantage of us too, dumping Brandon Manning on us when Chia was flailing. Bowman was desperate to dump that contract and put us to shame. One of the saddest moments of this franchise was McDavid feeling the need to personally call Manning and reassure him he wanted him on the team and felt he would be able to help the team win. Some months later Manning is dishing out racial slurs on our minor league team.

I think Holland just stinks at negotiating, period. Org convinced themselves they HAD to have Keith and Bowman could smell it. Zero respect, even going so far to make us create a conditional pick and tie our success to Bowman possibly getting more. Zero conditions for us on anything based on how much Jones plays. Not a penny of salary retention, nothing. Zero respect at all, just embarrassment. A hit and run. And we'll happily take his call again the next time he wants to dump a contract, I'm sure.


I think the theory is that the Oilers feel they're in this league of gentlemen, where their teams play each other hard, but the old boys really just respect and help each other. Things not going your way? Don't worry about it ol' chap, it'll turn around soon. It's just the cyclical nature of the game.

Some of those rules of engagement definitely exist (although why is anyone's guess). As Romulus points out, the anger at the Oilers over the offer sheets was palpable and real. However, the idea that you can't embarrass or take advantage of your opponent's weakness? I don't know that there's anyone else approaching things that way other than the Oilers.

It actually explains a lot. You don't need analytics if you're all buddies and it's going to be your turn eventually. That kind of edge over the other guys just isn't really important. And you should be able to leak things to the media in order to shape fan response all you want. After all, the other team's GM isn't going to take afvantage of that. That would be unfair!

It comes down to the question - are these guys really playing to win? I don't think Holland is.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789210 is a reply to message #789179 ]
Wed, 14 July 2021 11:49 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently offline Kr55
Messages: 10779
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton
6 Cups
Adam wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 01:28

Kr55 wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 00:35

Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 23:39

Goose wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 23:34

Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 12:43



For what it's worth, I don't hold this against Duncan Keith at all. I wish the guy well, and I hope he has a major bounceback here. It's just not a good bet, and the Oilers pushed in a ton of chips on a bet that is a long-shot but also pays only mediocre return in the best case scenario.

I actually love the conditional pick part from Chicago. That so feels like the icing on the cake. "You know, Kenny, we think this is really giving you the missing ingredient to go from first round sweep to Stanley Cup contender. We're basically gifting you the Stanley Cup, so really, you should upgrade that pick for when Duncan leads you to the promised land." It hearkens back to the extra pick in the Pronger deal, and Lowe telling Burke that he's basically giving him a Cup with that trade.

Maybe the Oilers truly feel that the 'Hawks WERE doing us a solid here...SIGH.


It's not even really about how Keith performs. He could have a decent season here and fit in on a limited role.

It's still a bad deal given that Chicago had to move him, and quickly, and Edmonton held all the cards. Holland talking about the price being significantly higher if they were going to get Chicago to retain salary is asinine. Chicago had zero other options. Their choices were turf the deal and protect Keith, or accept whatever the Oilers were offering. The problem here is that Holland heard that Keith was available, decided he wanted him and was willing to pay basically any price to get him.


And not only that - instead of negotiating and grinding Chicago - they started trying to position this for the fans in Edmonton!!! What a gift to Bowman. When those leaks happen, they have to know there's only one place that can come from. and the marching orders were so clear to media guys who got the leak...it just made it clear as day that Holland wanted Duncan Keith and would eventually pay what Chicago was asking.

What a team.

Edit to add - here's Romulus' excellent piece on this. Very well-written and argued:


https://romtable.wordpress.com/2021/07/13/ship-of-fools-leve rage-and-the-cult-of-the-gm/


So, what's the theory here? Holland has respect but Bowman doesn't? Because we clearly got taken advantage of and everyone can see it except people that feel compelled to apologize for the Oilers.

Bowman helped get Chia fired by taking advantage of us too, dumping Brandon Manning on us when Chia was flailing. Bowman was desperate to dump that contract and put us to shame. One of the saddest moments of this franchise was McDavid feeling the need to personally call Manning and reassure him he wanted him on the team and felt he would be able to help the team win. Some months later Manning is dishing out racial slurs on our minor league team.

I think Holland just stinks at negotiating, period. Org convinced themselves they HAD to have Keith and Bowman could smell it. Zero respect, even going so far to make us create a conditional pick and tie our success to Bowman possibly getting more. Zero conditions for us on anything based on how much Jones plays. Not a penny of salary retention, nothing. Zero respect at all, just embarrassment. A hit and run. And we'll happily take his call again the next time he wants to dump a contract, I'm sure.


I think the theory is that the Oilers feel they're in this league of gentlemen, where their teams play each other hard, but the old boys really just respect and help each other. Things not going your way? Don't worry about it ol' chap, it'll turn around soon. It's just the cyclical nature of the game.

Some of those rules of engagement definitely exist (although why is anyone's guess). As Romulus points out, the anger at the Oilers over the offer sheets was palpable and real. However, the idea that you can't embarrass or take advantage of your opponent's weakness? I don't know that there's anyone else approaching things that way other than the Oilers.

It actually explains a lot. You don't need analytics if you're all buddies and it's going to be your turn eventually. That kind of edge over the other guys just isn't really important. And you should be able to leak things to the media in order to shape fan response all you want. After all, the other team's GM isn't going to take afvantage of that. That would be unfair!

It comes down to the question - are these guys really playing to win? I don't think Holland is.


So, we're the only team playing by these rules of courtesy? :) I dunno, maybe I would find comfort in thinking Holland did this on purpose, but I think it's more likely our org instantly fell in love with how a future HHOF guy said he wanted to come here and we had to get it done ASAP.

Comparing player/team contract negotiations to team/team trades is tough. Contracts are far easier to argue with comparable. Debating values of all the moving parts between teams is tougher, and I think you can get far more savvy people in the GM ranks than agents out there looking for their own paydays. Part of the agents job is also to talk down their client a bit and temper expectations. The agent is very motivated to get a deal done. GM's can go into things thinking only about getting as big a win as they can, because their future is determined by the results of their cumulative effort. And you have so many teams to attempt deals with, it's not just a narrow focus of trying to sign 1 contract for 1 player.

In the end, I think the answer of why this happened is pretty simple. Keith wanted to come here. We got boners because of his pedigree and success and that lined up perfectly with what we always think is missing with our team (we don't know how to win yet, need more leadership). Bowman knew this weakness, like we all do and he played his hand well. Started high, allowed a middle to form that was still a massive win for him, and stood his ground.

[Updated on: Wed, 14 July 2021 12:05]

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

Send a private message to this user  

 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789223 is a reply to message #789210 ]
Wed, 14 July 2021 13:35 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently offline Adam
Messages: 7177
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB
6 Cups
Kr55 wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 11:49

Adam wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 01:28

Kr55 wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 00:35

Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 23:39

Goose wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 23:34

Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 12:43



For what it's worth, I don't hold this against Duncan Keith at all. I wish the guy well, and I hope he has a major bounceback here. It's just not a good bet, and the Oilers pushed in a ton of chips on a bet that is a long-shot but also pays only mediocre return in the best case scenario.

I actually love the conditional pick part from Chicago. That so feels like the icing on the cake. "You know, Kenny, we think this is really giving you the missing ingredient to go from first round sweep to Stanley Cup contender. We're basically gifting you the Stanley Cup, so really, you should upgrade that pick for when Duncan leads you to the promised land." It hearkens back to the extra pick in the Pronger deal, and Lowe telling Burke that he's basically giving him a Cup with that trade.

Maybe the Oilers truly feel that the 'Hawks WERE doing us a solid here...SIGH.


It's not even really about how Keith performs. He could have a decent season here and fit in on a limited role.

It's still a bad deal given that Chicago had to move him, and quickly, and Edmonton held all the cards. Holland talking about the price being significantly higher if they were going to get Chicago to retain salary is asinine. Chicago had zero other options. Their choices were turf the deal and protect Keith, or accept whatever the Oilers were offering. The problem here is that Holland heard that Keith was available, decided he wanted him and was willing to pay basically any price to get him.


And not only that - instead of negotiating and grinding Chicago - they started trying to position this for the fans in Edmonton!!! What a gift to Bowman. When those leaks happen, they have to know there's only one place that can come from. and the marching orders were so clear to media guys who got the leak...it just made it clear as day that Holland wanted Duncan Keith and would eventually pay what Chicago was asking.

What a team.

Edit to add - here's Romulus' excellent piece on this. Very well-written and argued:


https://romtable.wordpress.com/2021/07/13/ship-of-fools-leve rage-and-the-cult-of-the-gm/


So, what's the theory here? Holland has respect but Bowman doesn't? Because we clearly got taken advantage of and everyone can see it except people that feel compelled to apologize for the Oilers.

Bowman helped get Chia fired by taking advantage of us too, dumping Brandon Manning on us when Chia was flailing. Bowman was desperate to dump that contract and put us to shame. One of the saddest moments of this franchise was McDavid feeling the need to personally call Manning and reassure him he wanted him on the team and felt he would be able to help the team win. Some months later Manning is dishing out racial slurs on our minor league team.

I think Holland just stinks at negotiating, period. Org convinced themselves they HAD to have Keith and Bowman could smell it. Zero respect, even going so far to make us create a conditional pick and tie our success to Bowman possibly getting more. Zero conditions for us on anything based on how much Jones plays. Not a penny of salary retention, nothing. Zero respect at all, just embarrassment. A hit and run. And we'll happily take his call again the next time he wants to dump a contract, I'm sure.


I think the theory is that the Oilers feel they're in this league of gentlemen, where their teams play each other hard, but the old boys really just respect and help each other. Things not going your way? Don't worry about it ol' chap, it'll turn around soon. It's just the cyclical nature of the game.

Some of those rules of engagement definitely exist (although why is anyone's guess). As Romulus points out, the anger at the Oilers over the offer sheets was palpable and real. However, the idea that you can't embarrass or take advantage of your opponent's weakness? I don't know that there's anyone else approaching things that way other than the Oilers.

It actually explains a lot. You don't need analytics if you're all buddies and it's going to be your turn eventually. That kind of edge over the other guys just isn't really important. And you should be able to leak things to the media in order to shape fan response all you want. After all, the other team's GM isn't going to take afvantage of that. That would be unfair!

It comes down to the question - are these guys really playing to win? I don't think Holland is.


So, we're the only team playing by these rules of courtesy? :) I dunno, maybe I would find comfort in thinking Holland did this on purpose, but I think it's more likely our org instantly fell in love with how a future HHOF guy said he wanted to come here and we had to get it done ASAP.

Comparing player/team contract negotiations to team/team trades is tough. Contracts are far easier to argue with comparable. Debating values of all the moving parts between teams is tougher, and I think you can get far more savvy people in the GM ranks than agents out there looking for their own paydays. Part of the agents job is also to talk down their client a bit and temper expectations. The agent is very motivated to get a deal done. GM's can go into things thinking only about getting as big a win as they can, because their future is determined by the results of their cumulative effort. And you have so many teams to attempt deals with, it's not just a narrow focus of trying to sign 1 contract for 1 player.

In the end, I think the answer of why this happened is pretty simple. Keith wanted to come here. We got boners because of his pedigree and success and that lined up perfectly with what we always think is missing with our team (we don't know how to win yet, need more leadership). Bowman knew this weakness, like we all do and he played his hand well. Started high, allowed a middle to form that was still a massive win for him, and stood his ground.


It's really odd. I thought the same thing with Ryan Smyth's return. The player made clear this was their first choice of destination - but does that really mean that they're a good fit for us? Same issue with Smyth as with Keith - his cap hit was atrocious and the Oilers took all of it. He wasn't a fraction of the player he was, and yet he was on the books for a ridiculous number - which impairs our ability to get other people.

I know some people loved that he wanted to come back, that he used his no-move to come back to Edmonton...but again, it was net positive for the Kings. They dumped a problem contract and used that money to gear up for actual Cup runs...

Similarly here, the Blackhawks intend to make better use of that cap hit...so shouldn't that tell us something???

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789225 is a reply to message #789223 ]
Wed, 14 July 2021 13:40 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently offline Kr55
Messages: 10779
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton
6 Cups
Adam wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 13:35

Kr55 wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 11:49

Adam wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 01:28

Kr55 wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 00:35

Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 23:39

Goose wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 23:34

Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 12:43



For what it's worth, I don't hold this against Duncan Keith at all. I wish the guy well, and I hope he has a major bounceback here. It's just not a good bet, and the Oilers pushed in a ton of chips on a bet that is a long-shot but also pays only mediocre return in the best case scenario.

I actually love the conditional pick part from Chicago. That so feels like the icing on the cake. "You know, Kenny, we think this is really giving you the missing ingredient to go from first round sweep to Stanley Cup contender. We're basically gifting you the Stanley Cup, so really, you should upgrade that pick for when Duncan leads you to the promised land." It hearkens back to the extra pick in the Pronger deal, and Lowe telling Burke that he's basically giving him a Cup with that trade.

Maybe the Oilers truly feel that the 'Hawks WERE doing us a solid here...SIGH.


It's not even really about how Keith performs. He could have a decent season here and fit in on a limited role.

It's still a bad deal given that Chicago had to move him, and quickly, and Edmonton held all the cards. Holland talking about the price being significantly higher if they were going to get Chicago to retain salary is asinine. Chicago had zero other options. Their choices were turf the deal and protect Keith, or accept whatever the Oilers were offering. The problem here is that Holland heard that Keith was available, decided he wanted him and was willing to pay basically any price to get him.


And not only that - instead of negotiating and grinding Chicago - they started trying to position this for the fans in Edmonton!!! What a gift to Bowman. When those leaks happen, they have to know there's only one place that can come from. and the marching orders were so clear to media guys who got the leak...it just made it clear as day that Holland wanted Duncan Keith and would eventually pay what Chicago was asking.

What a team.

Edit to add - here's Romulus' excellent piece on this. Very well-written and argued:


https://romtable.wordpress.com/2021/07/13/ship-of-fools-leve rage-and-the-cult-of-the-gm/


So, what's the theory here? Holland has respect but Bowman doesn't? Because we clearly got taken advantage of and everyone can see it except people that feel compelled to apologize for the Oilers.

Bowman helped get Chia fired by taking advantage of us too, dumping Brandon Manning on us when Chia was flailing. Bowman was desperate to dump that contract and put us to shame. One of the saddest moments of this franchise was McDavid feeling the need to personally call Manning and reassure him he wanted him on the team and felt he would be able to help the team win. Some months later Manning is dishing out racial slurs on our minor league team.

I think Holland just stinks at negotiating, period. Org convinced themselves they HAD to have Keith and Bowman could smell it. Zero respect, even going so far to make us create a conditional pick and tie our success to Bowman possibly getting more. Zero conditions for us on anything based on how much Jones plays. Not a penny of salary retention, nothing. Zero respect at all, just embarrassment. A hit and run. And we'll happily take his call again the next time he wants to dump a contract, I'm sure.


I think the theory is that the Oilers feel they're in this league of gentlemen, where their teams play each other hard, but the old boys really just respect and help each other. Things not going your way? Don't worry about it ol' chap, it'll turn around soon. It's just the cyclical nature of the game.

Some of those rules of engagement definitely exist (although why is anyone's guess). As Romulus points out, the anger at the Oilers over the offer sheets was palpable and real. However, the idea that you can't embarrass or take advantage of your opponent's weakness? I don't know that there's anyone else approaching things that way other than the Oilers.

It actually explains a lot. You don't need analytics if you're all buddies and it's going to be your turn eventually. That kind of edge over the other guys just isn't really important. And you should be able to leak things to the media in order to shape fan response all you want. After all, the other team's GM isn't going to take afvantage of that. That would be unfair!

It comes down to the question - are these guys really playing to win? I don't think Holland is.


So, we're the only team playing by these rules of courtesy? :) I dunno, maybe I would find comfort in thinking Holland did this on purpose, but I think it's more likely our org instantly fell in love with how a future HHOF guy said he wanted to come here and we had to get it done ASAP.

Comparing player/team contract negotiations to team/team trades is tough. Contracts are far easier to argue with comparable. Debating values of all the moving parts between teams is tougher, and I think you can get far more savvy people in the GM ranks than agents out there looking for their own paydays. Part of the agents job is also to talk down their client a bit and temper expectations. The agent is very motivated to get a deal done. GM's can go into things thinking only about getting as big a win as they can, because their future is determined by the results of their cumulative effort. And you have so many teams to attempt deals with, it's not just a narrow focus of trying to sign 1 contract for 1 player.

In the end, I think the answer of why this happened is pretty simple. Keith wanted to come here. We got boners because of his pedigree and success and that lined up perfectly with what we always think is missing with our team (we don't know how to win yet, need more leadership). Bowman knew this weakness, like we all do and he played his hand well. Started high, allowed a middle to form that was still a massive win for him, and stood his ground.


It's really odd. I thought the same thing with Ryan Smyth's return. The player made clear this was their first choice of destination - but does that really mean that they're a good fit for us? Same issue with Smyth as with Keith - his cap hit was atrocious and the Oilers took all of it. He wasn't a fraction of the player he was, and yet he was on the books for a ridiculous number - which impairs our ability to get other people.

I know some people loved that he wanted to come back, that he used his no-move to come back to Edmonton...but again, it was net positive for the Kings. They dumped a problem contract and used that money to gear up for actual Cup runs...

Similarly here, the Blackhawks intend to make better use of that cap hit...so shouldn't that tell us something???


Oh come on! This is no time to insult Oilers legend Ryan Smyth! :)

Definitely similar though. We needed some leadership, Smyth is obviously a guy worth getting for that. Same with Ference, renowned fitness freak that for sure couldn't regress and just needed a slightly lesser role on the Oilers to get back to his old dominant cup winning ways.

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789247 is a reply to message #789223 ]
Wed, 14 July 2021 14:36 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mightyreasoner is currently offline mightyreasoner
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Adam wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 13:35


It's really odd. I thought the same thing with Ryan Smyth's return. The player made clear this was their first choice of destination - but does that really mean that they're a good fit for us? Same issue with Smyth as with Keith - his cap hit was atrocious and the Oilers took all of it. He wasn't a fraction of the player he was, and yet he was on the books for a ridiculous number - which impairs our ability to get other people.

I know some people loved that he wanted to come back, that he used his no-move to come back to Edmonton...but again, it was net positive for the Kings. They dumped a problem contract and used that money to gear up for actual Cup runs...

Similarly here, the Blackhawks intend to make better use of that cap hit...so shouldn't that tell us something???


This one's worse, IMO. At the time, Smyth still had some game left (46 points in his first season with the Oilers before production really took a nosedive the following season). Additionally, the top-end talent on the Oilers were all on ELCs and legitimately young (like teenagers). I don't know if any of us were expecting them to be contenders for anything in 2011.

Plus, the return was Colin Fraser and a 7th Round pick, so not much at all (basically a contract out).

I didn't mind the Smyth trade, even given that he was at the end of his career. The timing and team structure were very different at that point than they are now. So too should be the expectations.

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789264 is a reply to message #789247 ]
Wed, 14 July 2021 16:59 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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mightyreasoner wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 14:36

Adam wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 13:35


It's really odd. I thought the same thing with Ryan Smyth's return. The player made clear this was their first choice of destination - but does that really mean that they're a good fit for us? Same issue with Smyth as with Keith - his cap hit was atrocious and the Oilers took all of it. He wasn't a fraction of the player he was, and yet he was on the books for a ridiculous number - which impairs our ability to get other people.

I know some people loved that he wanted to come back, that he used his no-move to come back to Edmonton...but again, it was net positive for the Kings. They dumped a problem contract and used that money to gear up for actual Cup runs...

Similarly here, the Blackhawks intend to make better use of that cap hit...so shouldn't that tell us something???


This one's worse, IMO. At the time, Smyth still had some game left (46 points in his first season with the Oilers before production really took a nosedive the following season). Additionally, the top-end talent on the Oilers were all on ELCs and legitimately young (like teenagers). I don't know if any of us were expecting them to be contenders for anything in 2011.

Plus, the return was Colin Fraser and a 7th Round pick, so not much at all (basically a contract out).

I didn't mind the Smyth trade, even given that he was at the end of his career. The timing and team structure were very different at that point than they are now. So too should be the expectations.




$6.75MM cap hit though, and he had told the Kings he was only going to Edmonton...I think there's some stark similarities. Also, as soon as it became public, the Oilers were in a hurry to make it happen. Didn't play hard to get at all...

I'll go out on a ledge and say that in 2011, we could have got a lot more out of that $6.75MM...

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789269 is a reply to message #789264 ]
Wed, 14 July 2021 17:16 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mightyreasoner is currently offline mightyreasoner
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Adam wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 16:59


$6.75MM cap hit though, and he had told the Kings he was only going to Edmonton...I think there's some stark similarities. Also, as soon as it became public, the Oilers were in a hurry to make it happen. Didn't play hard to get at all...

I'll go out on a ledge and say that in 2011, we could have got a lot more out of that $6.75MM...


I mean, that summer the Smyth move was probably the least bad, because this is how they spent their free agent money:

Eric Belanger (3 years, $5.25 million)
Ryan Jones (2 years, $3 million)
Ben Eager (3 years, $3.3 million)
Darcy Hordichuk (1 year, $0.8 million)
Cam Barker (1 year, $2.25 million)
Corey Potter (1 year, $0.5 million)

I think you forget who was GM. Hopefully history doesn't repeat itself a decade later.

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789270 is a reply to message #789269 ]
Wed, 14 July 2021 17:42 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently offline Adam
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mightyreasoner wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 17:16

Adam wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 16:59


$6.75MM cap hit though, and he had told the Kings he was only going to Edmonton...I think there's some stark similarities. Also, as soon as it became public, the Oilers were in a hurry to make it happen. Didn't play hard to get at all...

I'll go out on a ledge and say that in 2011, we could have got a lot more out of that $6.75MM...


I mean, that summer the Smyth move was probably the least bad, because this is how they spent their free agent money:

Eric Belanger (3 years, $5.25 million)
Ryan Jones (2 years, $3 million)
Ben Eager (3 years, $3.3 million)
Darcy Hordichuk (1 year, $0.8 million)
Cam Barker (1 year, $2.25 million)
Corey Potter (1 year, $0.5 million)

I think you forget who was GM. Hopefully history doesn't repeat itself a decade later.



Sure, Tambo was the GM, but Kevin was the Shadow GM at the time and he's still right here! So expect more history repeating...

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789272 is a reply to message #789270 ]
Wed, 14 July 2021 17:58 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Oscargasm is currently offline Oscargasm
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Adam wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 17:42

mightyreasoner wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 17:16

Adam wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 16:59


$6.75MM cap hit though, and he had told the Kings he was only going to Edmonton...I think there's some stark similarities. Also, as soon as it became public, the Oilers were in a hurry to make it happen. Didn't play hard to get at all...

I'll go out on a ledge and say that in 2011, we could have got a lot more out of that $6.75MM...


I mean, that summer the Smyth move was probably the least bad, because this is how they spent their free agent money:

Eric Belanger (3 years, $5.25 million)
Ryan Jones (2 years, $3 million)
Ben Eager (3 years, $3.3 million)
Darcy Hordichuk (1 year, $0.8 million)
Cam Barker (1 year, $2.25 million)
Corey Potter (1 year, $0.5 million)

I think you forget who was GM. Hopefully history doesn't repeat itself a decade later.



Sure, Tambo was the GM, but Kevin was the Shadow GM at the time and he's still right here! So expect more history repeating...


Ben Eager at 3.3 or Zack Kassian at 3.2. Who’d you rather hve at those respective cap hits?

When it’s laid out like that, Kass isn’t as bad as it seems. There’s still a player there.

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Category 3 - Considerably Musty
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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789273 is a reply to message #789272 ]
Wed, 14 July 2021 18:03 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently offline Kr55
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Oscargasm wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 17:58

Adam wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 17:42

mightyreasoner wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 17:16

Adam wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 16:59


$6.75MM cap hit though, and he had told the Kings he was only going to Edmonton...I think there's some stark similarities. Also, as soon as it became public, the Oilers were in a hurry to make it happen. Didn't play hard to get at all...

I'll go out on a ledge and say that in 2011, we could have got a lot more out of that $6.75MM...


I mean, that summer the Smyth move was probably the least bad, because this is how they spent their free agent money:

Eric Belanger (3 years, $5.25 million)
Ryan Jones (2 years, $3 million)
Ben Eager (3 years, $3.3 million)
Darcy Hordichuk (1 year, $0.8 million)
Cam Barker (1 year, $2.25 million)
Corey Potter (1 year, $0.5 million)

I think you forget who was GM. Hopefully history doesn't repeat itself a decade later.



Sure, Tambo was the GM, but Kevin was the Shadow GM at the time and he's still right here! So expect more history repeating...


Ben Eager at 3.3 or Zack Kassian at 3.2. Who’d you rather hve at those respective cap hits?

When it’s laid out like that, Kass isn’t as bad as it seems. There’s still a player there.


Gotta divide those numbers by the years in mightyreasoner's post. Eager was a 1.1M cap hit.

Worst of those contracts was belanger by a good margin. Worst cap hit Barker, but at least just 1 year. A very Lowe/Tambo summer in the end. Lots of cheap nothing. Zero BOLDness.

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789274 is a reply to message #789273 ]
Wed, 14 July 2021 18:42 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Oscargasm is currently offline Oscargasm
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Kr55 wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 18:03

Oscargasm wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 17:58

Adam wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 17:42

mightyreasoner wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 17:16

Adam wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 16:59


$6.75MM cap hit though, and he had told the Kings he was only going to Edmonton...I think there's some stark similarities. Also, as soon as it became public, the Oilers were in a hurry to make it happen. Didn't play hard to get at all...

I'll go out on a ledge and say that in 2011, we could have got a lot more out of that $6.75MM...


I mean, that summer the Smyth move was probably the least bad, because this is how they spent their free agent money:

Eric Belanger (3 years, $5.25 million)
Ryan Jones (2 years, $3 million)
Ben Eager (3 years, $3.3 million)
Darcy Hordichuk (1 year, $0.8 million)
Cam Barker (1 year, $2.25 million)
Corey Potter (1 year, $0.5 million)

I think you forget who was GM. Hopefully history doesn't repeat itself a decade later.



Sure, Tambo was the GM, but Kevin was the Shadow GM at the time and he's still right here! So expect more history repeating...


Ben Eager at 3.3 or Zack Kassian at 3.2. Who’d you rather hve at those respective cap hits?

When it’s laid out like that, Kass isn’t as bad as it seems. There’s still a player there.


Gotta divide those numbers by the years in mightyreasoner's post. Eager was a 1.1M cap hit.

Worst of those contracts was belanger by a good margin. Worst cap hit Barker, but at least just 1 year. A very Lowe/Tambo summer in the end. Lots of cheap nothing. Zero BOLDness.


😂 well then. I stand corrected

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OG's #MUSTWIN Scale
Category 1 - Lightly Musty
Category 2 - Moderately Musty
Category 3 - Considerably Musty
Category 4 - Severely Musty
Category 5 - Incredibly Musty

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789126 is a reply to message #789101 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 13:18 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Skookum Jim wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 11:28

So what if the option were Larsson or Barrie on RD for similar contracts.. who would you take?





Tough call. I went Larsson only because Barrie holds Bouchard back, who I think can achieve similar numbers to Barrie if given the opportunity. Larsson also adds some physicality, but I still do not trust his wonky back.

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789133 is a reply to message #789126 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 14:01 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Isn't this basically a Klefbom replacement who will go on LTIR? Along with Jones money going out the cap is almost a wash? So basically Keith for a 3rd. Or am I missing something?

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789136 is a reply to message #789133 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 15:07 Go to previous messageGo to next message
nullterm is currently offline nullterm
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travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 13:01

Isn't this basically a Klefbom replacement who will go on LTIR? Along with Jones money going out the cap is almost a wash? So basically Keith for a 3rd. Or am I missing something?


Pretty much.

I was against it, but now that it's done, I'm not gonna cry over moving a 6/7 dman to fill a hole in our top four. It's done, time to move on.

Illegitimi non carborundum.

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789137 is a reply to message #789136 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 15:23 Go to previous messageGo to next message
smyth260 is currently offline smyth260
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nullterm wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 14:07

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 13:01

Isn't this basically a Klefbom replacement who will go on LTIR? Along with Jones money going out the cap is almost a wash? So basically Keith for a 3rd. Or am I missing something?


Pretty much.

I was against it, but now that it's done, I'm not gonna cry over moving a 6/7 dman to fill a hole in our top four. It's done, time to move on.


I’ll cry if a 38 year old predictably declines to an AHL caliber player and fills no holes.

Clean house or bust

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789138 is a reply to message #789137 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 15:31 Go to previous messageGo to next message
nullterm is currently offline nullterm
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smyth260 wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 14:23

nullterm wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 14:07

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 13:01

Isn't this basically a Klefbom replacement who will go on LTIR? Along with Jones money going out the cap is almost a wash? So basically Keith for a 3rd. Or am I missing something?


Pretty much.

I was against it, but now that it's done, I'm not gonna cry over moving a 6/7 dman to fill a hole in our top four. It's done, time to move on.


I’ll cry if a 38 year old predictably declines to an AHL caliber player and fills no holes.


Do you watch the Oilers to be happy or sad?

Illegitimi non carborundum.

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789139 is a reply to message #789138 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 15:40 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi is currently offline CrusaderPi
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nullterm wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:31

smyth260 wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 14:23

nullterm wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 14:07

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 13:01

Isn't this basically a Klefbom replacement who will go on LTIR? Along with Jones money going out the cap is almost a wash? So basically Keith for a 3rd. Or am I missing something?


Pretty much.

I was against it, but now that it's done, I'm not gonna cry over moving a 6/7 dman to fill a hole in our top four. It's done, time to move on.


I’ll cry if a 38 year old predictably declines to an AHL caliber player and fills no holes.


Do you watch the Oilers to be happy or sad?

Do people pay money to watch the Oilers to be happy or sad?

How's that totally always real season ticket wait list going?

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789140 is a reply to message #789136 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 15:44 Go to previous messageGo to next message
travgwhite is currently offline travgwhite
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nullterm wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:07

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 13:01

Isn't this basically a Klefbom replacement who will go on LTIR? Along with Jones money going out the cap is almost a wash? So basically Keith for a 3rd. Or am I missing something?


Pretty much.

I was against it, but now that it's done, I'm not gonna cry over moving a 6/7 dman to fill a hole in our top four. It's done, time to move on.


Prob would have lost Jones to expansion draft anyway.

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789142 is a reply to message #789140 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 15:50 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi is currently offline CrusaderPi
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travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:44

nullterm wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:07

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 13:01

Isn't this basically a Klefbom replacement who will go on LTIR? Along with Jones money going out the cap is almost a wash? So basically Keith for a 3rd. Or am I missing something?


Pretty much.

I was against it, but now that it's done, I'm not gonna cry over moving a 6/7 dman to fill a hole in our top four. It's done, time to move on.


Prob would have lost Jones to expansion draft anyway.

Now the Oilers lost Jones, someone else to Seattle, a draft pick, the ability to move a different draft pick, Cap Space, and have subtraction by addition in the line up.

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789146 is a reply to message #789142 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 16:01 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently offline Adam
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CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:50

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:44

nullterm wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:07

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 13:01

Isn't this basically a Klefbom replacement who will go on LTIR? Along with Jones money going out the cap is almost a wash? So basically Keith for a 3rd. Or am I missing something?


Pretty much.

I was against it, but now that it's done, I'm not gonna cry over moving a 6/7 dman to fill a hole in our top four. It's done, time to move on.


Prob would have lost Jones to expansion draft anyway.

Now the Oilers lost Jones, someone else to Seattle, a draft pick, the ability to move a different draft pick, Cap Space, and have subtraction by addition in the line up.


Gregor has made the argument that the Hawks don't put a lot of value in Jones because they aren't likely to protect him in the expansion draft. If that's true, then why did they want him in the deal? At worst he's a meat shield for them so that they don't lose someone else.

The Oilers including him has the opposite impact. We don't lose Jones to Seattle now, so someone else is likely to go. If I'm the Kraken, realizing the Edmonton list is pretty weak, I'm taking either Oscar Klefbom and assuming the risk (now THAT is a high risk, high reward move), or the best prospect available. It's fine that Jones was deemed expendable - we had to lose someone. Now we've lost the guy we were already likely to lose (except that without Keith or Larsson, we could have even protected him), and we get to lost someone else too.

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789148 is a reply to message #789146 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 16:03 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:01

CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:50

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:44

nullterm wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:07

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 13:01

Isn't this basically a Klefbom replacement who will go on LTIR? Along with Jones money going out the cap is almost a wash? So basically Keith for a 3rd. Or am I missing something?


Pretty much.

I was against it, but now that it's done, I'm not gonna cry over moving a 6/7 dman to fill a hole in our top four. It's done, time to move on.


Prob would have lost Jones to expansion draft anyway.

Now the Oilers lost Jones, someone else to Seattle, a draft pick, the ability to move a different draft pick, Cap Space, and have subtraction by addition in the line up.


Gregor has made the argument that the Hawks don't put a lot of value in Jones because they aren't likely to protect him in the expansion draft. If that's true, then why did they want him in the deal? At worst he's a meat shield for them so that they don't lose someone else.

The Oilers including him has the opposite impact. We don't lose Jones to Seattle now, so someone else is likely to go. If I'm the Kraken, realizing the Edmonton list is pretty weak, I'm taking either Oscar Klefbom and assuming the risk (now THAT is a high risk, high reward move), or the best prospect available. It's fine that Jones was deemed expendable - we had to lose someone. Now we've lost the guy we were already likely to lose (except that without Keith or Larsson, we could have even protected him), and we get to lost someone else too.




I want the Kraken to take Neal. They won't of course. So I hope and pray they do take Klefbom. Means the Oilers literally lose NOTHING because he won't play.


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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789150 is a reply to message #789148 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 16:11 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently offline Adam
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RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:03

Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:01

CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:50

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:44

nullterm wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:07

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 13:01

Isn't this basically a Klefbom replacement who will go on LTIR? Along with Jones money going out the cap is almost a wash? So basically Keith for a 3rd. Or am I missing something?


Pretty much.

I was against it, but now that it's done, I'm not gonna cry over moving a 6/7 dman to fill a hole in our top four. It's done, time to move on.


Prob would have lost Jones to expansion draft anyway.

Now the Oilers lost Jones, someone else to Seattle, a draft pick, the ability to move a different draft pick, Cap Space, and have subtraction by addition in the line up.


Gregor has made the argument that the Hawks don't put a lot of value in Jones because they aren't likely to protect him in the expansion draft. If that's true, then why did they want him in the deal? At worst he's a meat shield for them so that they don't lose someone else.

The Oilers including him has the opposite impact. We don't lose Jones to Seattle now, so someone else is likely to go. If I'm the Kraken, realizing the Edmonton list is pretty weak, I'm taking either Oscar Klefbom and assuming the risk (now THAT is a high risk, high reward move), or the best prospect available. It's fine that Jones was deemed expendable - we had to lose someone. Now we've lost the guy we were already likely to lose (except that without Keith or Larsson, we could have even protected him), and we get to lost someone else too.




I want the Kraken to take Neal. They won't of course. So I hope and pray they do take Klefbom. Means the Oilers literally lose NOTHING because he won't play.



Unless of course he does, and returns to form in which case the Oilers would have lost something very valuable in fact...

I don't trust anything being reported there, because the Oilers media are the only ones saying anything, none of them are getting info direct from Klefbom - always just "someone close to him" - and we know they all carry water for the team regularly.

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789152 is a reply to message #789150 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 16:24 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:11

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:03

Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:01

CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:50

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:44

nullterm wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:07

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 13:01

Isn't this basically a Klefbom replacement who will go on LTIR? Along with Jones money going out the cap is almost a wash? So basically Keith for a 3rd. Or am I missing something?


Pretty much.

I was against it, but now that it's done, I'm not gonna cry over moving a 6/7 dman to fill a hole in our top four. It's done, time to move on.


Prob would have lost Jones to expansion draft anyway.

Now the Oilers lost Jones, someone else to Seattle, a draft pick, the ability to move a different draft pick, Cap Space, and have subtraction by addition in the line up.


Gregor has made the argument that the Hawks don't put a lot of value in Jones because they aren't likely to protect him in the expansion draft. If that's true, then why did they want him in the deal? At worst he's a meat shield for them so that they don't lose someone else.

The Oilers including him has the opposite impact. We don't lose Jones to Seattle now, so someone else is likely to go. If I'm the Kraken, realizing the Edmonton list is pretty weak, I'm taking either Oscar Klefbom and assuming the risk (now THAT is a high risk, high reward move), or the best prospect available. It's fine that Jones was deemed expendable - we had to lose someone. Now we've lost the guy we were already likely to lose (except that without Keith or Larsson, we could have even protected him), and we get to lost someone else too.




I want the Kraken to take Neal. They won't of course. So I hope and pray they do take Klefbom. Means the Oilers literally lose NOTHING because he won't play.



Unless of course he does, and returns to form in which case the Oilers would have lost something very valuable in fact...

I don't trust anything being reported there, because the Oilers media are the only ones saying anything, none of them are getting info direct from Klefbom - always just "someone close to him" - and we know they all carry water for the team regularly.

I don't live on hopes and maybe's. I live in reality. So far nothing I have heard or read says he's coming back anytime soon if ever. I have read what Klefbom said himself prior to surgery and his priority was quality of life with hockey way down on the list. Take it for what it's worth but supposedly Gregor has been told he can't even raise his arm over his heard yet.

So if the Kraken want to roll the dice on a guy who so far its highly unlikely he will play hockey again, please do! It doesn't even sound like it's 50-50. It's grossly in favor of extremely likely he's done. I'd be very happy if they took a potential never will be again

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789147 is a reply to message #789142 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 16:03 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently offline Adam
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CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:50

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:44

nullterm wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:07

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 13:01

Isn't this basically a Klefbom replacement who will go on LTIR? Along with Jones money going out the cap is almost a wash? So basically Keith for a 3rd. Or am I missing something?


Pretty much.

I was against it, but now that it's done, I'm not gonna cry over moving a 6/7 dman to fill a hole in our top four. It's done, time to move on.


Prob would have lost Jones to expansion draft anyway.

Now the Oilers lost Jones, someone else to Seattle, a draft pick, the ability to move a different draft pick, Cap Space, and have subtraction by addition in the line up.


Ugh...I didn't even think about that. If they're offering the condition, I suppose they can't then trade that pick away. Gross.

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789149 is a reply to message #789147 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 16:10 Go to previous messageGo to next message
travgwhite is currently offline travgwhite
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Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:03

CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:50

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:44

nullterm wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:07

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 13:01

Isn't this basically a Klefbom replacement who will go on LTIR? Along with Jones money going out the cap is almost a wash? So basically Keith for a 3rd. Or am I missing something?


Pretty much.

I was against it, but now that it's done, I'm not gonna cry over moving a 6/7 dman to fill a hole in our top four. It's done, time to move on.


Prob would have lost Jones to expansion draft anyway.

Now the Oilers lost Jones, someone else to Seattle, a draft pick, the ability to move a different draft pick, Cap Space, and have subtraction by addition in the line up.


Ugh...I didn't even think about that. If they're offering the condition, I suppose they can't then trade that pick away. Gross.


Not saying they shouldn't have retained salary, just saying it wasn't as bad as I initially thought when I read capfriendly and saw we only had 11.5 mil left to get everything done as I had forgotten Klef going on LTIR will add just over 4 mil to that before any possible buyout.

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789155 is a reply to message #789149 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 16:25 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently offline Adam
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travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:10



Not saying they shouldn't have retained salary, just saying it wasn't as bad as I initially thought when I read capfriendly and saw we only had 11.5 mil left to get everything done as I had forgotten Klef going on LTIR will add just over 4 mil to that before any possible buyout.


Here's the thing. Including Klefbom's LTIR, they had about $20MM to play with.

- Larsson (assuming he signs) is probably $4-5MM
- Khaira is $1-1.5MM
- Yamamoto is $2-2.5MM
- Smith (assuming he signs) is $2-3MM
- The above totals to 9-12MM

That gives you 12 forwards including Turris who you most likely have in the minors. It gives you 6 defencemen including Lagesson. So we need three other players still, and we have some big holes to patch - top 6 winger, #3C, one more depth defenceman, potentially another goalie.

We still have those holes, but instead of 8-11MM to deal with them (which was already pretty skinny) we now have $4-7MM. If you assume you can't get another true top six forward for less than $5MM per season, then we're scraping the bottom of the barrel to fill out the other positions or it forces us in to buyouts for Neal and Koskinen. That would free up cap hit now, but it costs us in the long run because we'd have even more dead cap space. As of right now, we have $2.25MM dead cap, which is the least we've had in ages (and you can sign a pretty good depth player for that amount if you're diligent).

Keith's contract also is a pain next year when suddenly we have Nurse, Puljujarvi and Bear all free agents.

The fact is, cap space is really at a premium, especially in a flat cap world. Having some gives you more flexibility to add to the roster and there's less competitors for free agents (especially if you shop wisely after the opening day of free agency) because less teams have that flexibility in a flat cap.

I don't think we can adequately patch all the holes here, and so we're going to take a flawed team in to the season again next year and hope that we can fix it on the fly while tiptoeing around the limits with LTIR.

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789156 is a reply to message #789155 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 16:29 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Dragon_Matt is currently offline Dragon_Matt
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I have heard that there is a handshake with Larrson for 3.75m to be signed after the expansion draft. Hope it's true. not a bad price for his skillset.

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789162 is a reply to message #789156 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 16:50 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Skookum Jim is currently offline Skookum Jim
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Dragon_Matt wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:29

I have heard that there is a handshake with Larrson for 3.75m to be signed after the expansion draft. Hope it's true. not a bad price for his skillset.


With that cap hit, you can still add some forwards.. although I'm worried about #1 RD even with Larsson signed (I have him at #2 RD with Keith)

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P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789164 is a reply to message #789162 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 17:00 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently offline Adam
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Skookum Jim wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:50

Dragon_Matt wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:29

I have heard that there is a handshake with Larrson for 3.75m to be signed after the expansion draft. Hope it's true. not a bad price for his skillset.


With that cap hit, you can still add some forwards.. although I'm worried about #1 RD even with Larsson signed (I have him at #2 RD with Keith)


I'm not that worried there. I think Bear is better than many in here give him credit for. He's a young defenceman, so there's always growing pains - but he's nearing the point Petry was when we cut bait there - actually a couple years younger still.

And Bouchard should be able to grow a lot if given game time. Ideally he starts in the third pairing but he may be able to move up.

I don't think you can pick Barrie over Larsson now, because from all accounts, Keith is a gambler and needs someone a bit more steady to cover for him. Barrie has never been the defensive conscience of a pairing, and I don't think I'd be in a hurry to put Keith with Bouchard. Maybe Bear, but I think Bear's our best RD, so need him playing up the roster - which we know Keith can't do anymore.

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789166 is a reply to message #789164 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 17:03 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently offline Kr55
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Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 17:00

Skookum Jim wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:50

Dragon_Matt wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:29

I have heard that there is a handshake with Larrson for 3.75m to be signed after the expansion draft. Hope it's true. not a bad price for his skillset.


With that cap hit, you can still add some forwards.. although I'm worried about #1 RD even with Larsson signed (I have him at #2 RD with Keith)


I'm not that worried there. I think Bear is better than many in here give him credit for. He's a young defenceman, so there's always growing pains - but he's nearing the point Petry was when we cut bait there - actually a couple years younger still.

And Bouchard should be able to grow a lot if given game time. Ideally he starts in the third pairing but he may be able to move up.

I don't think you can pick Barrie over Larsson now, because from all accounts, Keith is a gambler and needs someone a bit more steady to cover for him. Barrie has never been the defensive conscience of a pairing, and I don't think I'd be in a hurry to put Keith with Bouchard. Maybe Bear, but I think Bear's our best RD, so need him playing up the roster - which we know Keith can't do anymore.




Yeah. Hope no one is expecting Keith to be a stabilizing force on a D pair. His defensive play has been awful. You have to hope he can get the puck moving consistently. Keith is really our gamble replacement for Barrie. I think it's more accurate to say he's taking Barrie's money than Klef's. Klef was out this season and we were right up against the cap+LTIR limit. You can't have Barrie+Keith+Larsson. You can only have 2 of those guys and still have a hope to fix our forward group.

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- MacT, 2015

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789171 is a reply to message #789164 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 20:31 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Skookum Jim is currently offline Skookum Jim
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Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:00

Skookum Jim wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:50

Dragon_Matt wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:29

I have heard that there is a handshake with Larrson for 3.75m to be signed after the expansion draft. Hope it's true. not a bad price for his skillset.


With that cap hit, you can still add some forwards.. although I'm worried about #1 RD even with Larsson signed (I have him at #2 RD with Keith)


I'm not that worried there. I think Bear is better than many in here give him credit for. He's a young defenceman, so there's always growing pains - but he's nearing the point Petry was when we cut bait there - actually a couple years younger still.

And Bouchard should be able to grow a lot if given game time. Ideally he starts in the third pairing but he may be able to move up.

I don't think you can pick Barrie over Larsson now, because from all accounts, Keith is a gambler and needs someone a bit more steady to cover for him. Barrie has never been the defensive conscience of a pairing, and I don't think I'd be in a hurry to put Keith with Bouchard. Maybe Bear, but I think Bear's our best RD, so need him playing up the roster - which we know Keith can't do anymore.




I'll have to disagree on Bear, I was high on him all the way from junior, hoped he'd develop into a top 4, but I think Bear is what you see, he's not quick, he's not big, and doesn't play big, and doesn't make decisions quick enough, not great on offence, he's definitely not a #1 RD, and not even #2 on a contending team, there's a hole in that top 4 D, even assuming Larsson is signed, not sure what they do to fill it.

I agree that the compatible pairing for Keith is not Barrie.

[Updated on: Tue, 13 July 2021 20:42]

McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!!
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789174 is a reply to message #789171 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 23:19 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently offline Adam
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Skookum Jim wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 20:31

Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:00

Skookum Jim wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:50

Dragon_Matt wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:29

I have heard that there is a handshake with Larrson for 3.75m to be signed after the expansion draft. Hope it's true. not a bad price for his skillset.


With that cap hit, you can still add some forwards.. although I'm worried about #1 RD even with Larsson signed (I have him at #2 RD with Keith)


I'm not that worried there. I think Bear is better than many in here give him credit for. He's a young defenceman, so there's always growing pains - but he's nearing the point Petry was when we cut bait there - actually a couple years younger still.

And Bouchard should be able to grow a lot if given game time. Ideally he starts in the third pairing but he may be able to move up.

I don't think you can pick Barrie over Larsson now, because from all accounts, Keith is a gambler and needs someone a bit more steady to cover for him. Barrie has never been the defensive conscience of a pairing, and I don't think I'd be in a hurry to put Keith with Bouchard. Maybe Bear, but I think Bear's our best RD, so need him playing up the roster - which we know Keith can't do anymore.




I'll have to disagree on Bear, I was high on him all the way from junior, hoped he'd develop into a top 4, but I think Bear is what you see, he's not quick, he's not big, and doesn't play big, and doesn't make decisions quick enough, not great on offence, he's definitely not a #1 RD, and not even #2 on a contending team, there's a hole in that top 4 D, even assuming Larsson is signed, not sure what they do to fill it.

I agree that the compatible pairing for Keith is not Barrie.


How did you feel about Petry when he was here?

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789144 is a reply to message #789140 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 15:55 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently offline RDOilerfan
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travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:44

nullterm wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:07

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 13:01

Isn't this basically a Klefbom replacement who will go on LTIR? Along with Jones money going out the cap is almost a wash? So basically Keith for a 3rd. Or am I missing something?


Pretty much.

I was against it, but now that it's done, I'm not gonna cry over moving a 6/7 dman to fill a hole in our top four. It's done, time to move on.


Prob would have lost Jones to expansion draft anyway.

All depends on if Seattle thought Jones was any good. Looks like a 6/7 dman to me. I'd probably consider taking Russell over Jones if they were both here. At least you know in a 3rd pairing role making just over 1 mill, Russell can play. Who knows about Jones.

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789143 is a reply to message #789136 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 15:55 Go to previous messageGo to next message
K.McC#24 is currently offline K.McC#24
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nullterm wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:07

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 13:01

Isn't this basically a Klefbom replacement who will go on LTIR? Along with Jones money going out the cap is almost a wash? So basically Keith for a 3rd. Or am I missing something?


Pretty much.

I was against it, but now that it's done, I'm not gonna cry over moving a 6/7 dman to fill a hole in our top four. It's done, time to move on.

👍👍 100%, and you're better for it.

I find that long term anger over moves by the Oilers, ranging from questionable to outright stupid, adversely affects my mental wellbeing. Yesterday was not a good day for Ken Holland, I don't think.....but I've basically talked myself into being over it because I have zero influence as a tier 2 minion. Covid19 and coping has been a big part of me cutting back on my anger I think....its just shorter term venting for the most part..😁

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789151 is a reply to message #789143 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 16:22 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently offline Kr55
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K.McC#24 wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:55

nullterm wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:07

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 13:01

Isn't this basically a Klefbom replacement who will go on LTIR? Along with Jones money going out the cap is almost a wash? So basically Keith for a 3rd. Or am I missing something?


Pretty much.

I was against it, but now that it's done, I'm not gonna cry over moving a 6/7 dman to fill a hole in our top four. It's done, time to move on.

👍👍 100%, and you're better for it.

I find that long term anger over moves by the Oilers, ranging from questionable to outright stupid, adversely affects my mental wellbeing. Yesterday was not a good day for Ken Holland, I don't think.....but I've basically talked myself into being over it because I have zero influence as a tier 2 minion. Covid19 and coping has been a big part of me cutting back on my anger I think....its just shorter term venting for the most part..😁


This is Oilers fan life.

1) Oilers do something crappy
2) People all realize it's crappy
3) People all realize they have no control over what the Oilers do and can't help but to still be hopelessly invested in hoping the Oilers finally do something good
4) Various arguments are created to rationalize why this crappy move might not be that bad (the media provided these even before step 1, and many fans were already prepared and skipped steps 2 and 3)
5) Large amount of fans accept the arguments to put it all behind them
6) Oilers continue to fail

rinse repeat.

[Updated on: Tue, 13 July 2021 16:24]

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789153 is a reply to message #789151 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 16:24 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi is currently offline CrusaderPi
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Kr55 wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:22

K.McC#24 wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:55

nullterm wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:07

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 13:01

Isn't this basically a Klefbom replacement who will go on LTIR? Along with Jones money going out the cap is almost a wash? So basically Keith for a 3rd. Or am I missing something?


Pretty much.

I was against it, but now that it's done, I'm not gonna cry over moving a 6/7 dman to fill a hole in our top four. It's done, time to move on.

👍👍 100%, and you're better for it.

I find that long term anger over moves by the Oilers, ranging from questionable to outright stupid, adversely affects my mental wellbeing. Yesterday was not a good day for Ken Holland, I don't think.....but I've basically talked myself into being over it because I have zero influence as a tier 2 minion. Covid19 and coping has been a big part of me cutting back on my anger I think....its just shorter term venting for the most part..😁


This is Oilers fan life.

1a) The Press tell us the Oilers are about to do something crappy
1b) Oilers do something crappy
2) People all realize it's crappy
3) People all realize they have no control over what the Oilers do and can't help but to still be hopelessly invested in hoping the Oilers finally do something good
4) Various arguments are created to rationalize why this crappy move might not be that bad
5) Large amount of fans accept the arguments to put it all behind them
6) Oilers continue to fail

rinse repeat.

You missed the step where the crappy move is sold hard by the press before it happens. I think that helps with step 4.

Eat
Sleep
Make horrifyingly and obviously bad decisions
Repeat

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789154 is a reply to message #789153 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 16:25 Go to previous messageGo to previous message
Kr55 is currently offline Kr55
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CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:24

Kr55 wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:22

K.McC#24 wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:55

nullterm wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:07

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 13:01

Isn't this basically a Klefbom replacement who will go on LTIR? Along with Jones money going out the cap is almost a wash? So basically Keith for a 3rd. Or am I missing something?


Pretty much.

I was against it, but now that it's done, I'm not gonna cry over moving a 6/7 dman to fill a hole in our top four. It's done, time to move on.

👍👍 100%, and you're better for it.

I find that long term anger over moves by the Oilers, ranging from questionable to outright stupid, adversely affects my mental wellbeing. Yesterday was not a good day for Ken Holland, I don't think.....but I've basically talked myself into being over it because I have zero influence as a tier 2 minion. Covid19 and coping has been a big part of me cutting back on my anger I think....its just shorter term venting for the most part..😁


This is Oilers fan life.

1a) The Press tell us the Oilers are about to do something crappy
1b) Oilers do something crappy
2) People all realize it's crappy
3) People all realize they have no control over what the Oilers do and can't help but to still be hopelessly invested in hoping the Oilers finally do something good
4) Various arguments are created to rationalize why this crappy move might not be that bad
5) Large amount of fans accept the arguments to put it all behind them
6) Oilers continue to fail

rinse repeat.

You missed the step where the crappy move is sold hard by the press before it happens. I think that helps with step 4.

Eat
Sleep
Make horrifyingly and obviously bad decisions
Repeat



Edited with a note on stop 4. Media provides step 4 fuel before step one, and many fans skip steps 2 and 3 because they were already mentally prepared (this is called Kurt Leavins Syndrome).

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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 Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789158 is a reply to message #789154 ]
Tue, 13 July 2021 16:31 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently offline Kr55
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Kr55 wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:25

CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:24

Kr55 wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:22

K.McC#24 wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:55

nullterm wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:07

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 13:01

Isn't this basically a Klefbom replacement who will go on LTIR? Along with Jones money going out the cap is almost a wash? So basically Keith for a 3rd. Or am I missing something?


Pretty much.

I was against it, but now that it's done, I'm not gonna cry over moving a 6/7 dman to fill a hole in our top four. It's done, time to move on.

👍👍 100%, and you're better for it.

I find that long term anger over moves by the Oilers, ranging from questionable to outright stupid, adversely affects my mental wellbeing. Yesterday was not a good day for Ken Holland, I don't think.....but I've basically talked myself into being over it because I have zero influence as a tier 2 minion. Covid19 and coping has been a big part of me cutting back on my anger I think....its just shorter term venting for the most part..😁


This is Oilers fan life.

1a) The Press tell us the Oilers are about to do something crappy
1b) Oilers do something crappy
2) People all realize it's crappy
3) People all realize they have no control over what the Oilers do and can't help but to still be hopelessly invested in hoping the Oilers finally do something good
4) Various arguments are created to rationalize why this crappy move might not be that bad
5) Large amount of fans accept the arguments to put it all behind them
6) Oilers continue to fail

rinse repeat.

You missed the step where the crappy move is sold hard by the press before it happens. I think that helps with step 4.

Eat
Sleep
Make horrifyingly and obviously bad decisions
Repeat



Edited with a note on stop 4. Media provides step 4 fuel before step one, and many fans skip steps 2 and 3 because they were already mentally prepared (this is called Kurt Leavins Syndrome).


And just to note, I'm not claiming any high ground here. I do it too. My rationalizing of Hall for Larsson is immortalized on this site as I desperately searched for statistics to suggest Larsson could still fulfil something close to his 4th OA potential. Looch signing. Eberle trade. Schultz trade. Lots of examples.

We're all trapped on this slowly sinking ship and need a boost here and there to still find some way to be hopeful :)

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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