Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

[Updated on: Tue, 11 May 2021 18:11]

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

Survivor CHAMP S52 | S66
OG's #MUSTWIN Scale
Category 1 - Lightly Musty
Category 2 - Moderately Musty
Category 3 - Considerably Musty
Category 4 - Severely Musty
Category 5 - Incredibly Musty

Goose wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 16:31

mightyreasoner wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 11:33 I saw those OilersNerdAlert numbers last night, but I'm taking them with a little grain of salt too. I'm not sure we're really getting a clear picture with the data he presented. He came in with a bias and has presented as such, IMO. For example, how many minutes has McDavid played without Barrie on the powerplay? I'm trying to find the data, but my guess is the sample size is a lot smaller, and that they've played a lot more together... which certainly could impact the data. Smaller samples can exaggerate differences or similarities that change with time. Same could really be said for smaller sample size of data with other defenseman he has played with since to my eye Barrie and Nurse have played a lot more with McDavid than others (which also begs the question how Nurse compares. Do we dump him also?). McDavid needs to have a few good shifts with a few defesemen he normally doesn't play with to really shift that data. I'd love to see total minutes played with each of the defensman if that is available. To be honest, I do find the Barrie-bashing annoying a bit. Only in Edmonton (and maybe Toronto) do you have the top two scorers in the NHL, the top defenseman in scoring, they are dramatically outscoring opposition when on the ice, and playing them together is controversial. I'd hate to see what some people would have done to Paul Coffey. The top of the Oilers lineup (McDavid, Draisaitl, Nurse, Barrie, Smith) is producing at a rate we haven't seen since the 1980s. I've never watched them produce at this rate, so finding the rainy cloud in a blue sky isn't really for me right now. And I do believe this - if any defenseman could do what Barrie has done this year, I imagine they would have. He is producing points at nearly double the rate any other defenseman McDavid has played with in his career has. McDavid is having a career year, and no doubt all this is linked... but perhaps Barrie getting the puck to McDavid with more frequency shouldn't be entirely dismissed out of hand. I'm not even suggesting Barrie is incredible or this really complete defenseman. But despite how OilersNerdAlert presented things, he seems to work with well with McDavid, and I think we will lose some offensive production if Barrie leaves. If that's the case, you are actually probably hoping that the Oilers allow LESS goals than that they score MORE goals. I could be wrong, but I think sample sizes need to be questions when looking at that data. If someone has the minutes played with each defenseman, that could be interesting, and if they are close, would be more of an apples to apples comparison. I'm coming at this from the perspective as to whether the Oilers should be considering signing Barrie or not. Based on what I've seen, I don't think they should, definitely not if the number is $7M. I don't even think they should do it at $5M if the term is more than 3 years. If you want to call that Barrie bashing, that's fine, and I get that the Oilers are doing well so people would rather focus on that but it's nothing personal against Tyson Barrie. He's definitely made the most of the situation he's been given so full credit to him there. I think the sample size question on the PP is a fair one. Naturalstattrick has all of those breakdowns. McDavid has 181 minutes on the PP this year with Barrie and 46 minutes without Barrie. So sample sizes are not big. At the same time, if you had asked anyone where they thought that Barrie would have the biggest impact on the Oilers, they would have said on the PP. So the fact that McDavid scores more on the PP when Barrie isn't on the ice isn't a great sign. At 5x5, part of the problem is that Barrie (and Nurse) play so much with McDavid that the other defencemen don't have a lot of time with him. Here is the breakdown of the defencmen on the team and their minutes and scoring rates with McDavid 5x5: Nurse: 652 min - 1.75pts/60 (a lot of those minutes are with Barrie also) Barrie: 546min - 1.87pts/60 Bear: 174 min - 2.06pts/60 Larsson: 141 min - 0.00 pts/60 Russell: 116 min - 2.04 pts/60 Jones: 73 min - 1.63 pts/60 So to say that Barrie's scoring rates with McDavid are unprecedented, maybe that's true from an absolute perspective, but it's definitely not true from a scoring rate perspective this year. And is it fair to compare to any other year given that McDavid, at 5x5, is scoring at almost 0.5pts/60 higher this year than in any previous year (and 0.77pts/60 higher than he was last year)? Would I like to see more minutes from Bear with McDavid to know whether that number is sustainable? Sure. But Kr55 has already talked about Barrie's 2nd assist rate. Notable that Bear's 2nd assist rate with McDavid is just over half that of Barrie's (0.69/60 vs 1.1/60). Personally, I would have no problem with Bear replacing Barrie as the top RHD in terms of minutes with McDavid, and I don't think the Oilers lose anything in that scenario. I think Bear is a better passer than Barrie, and I think he has a higher hockey IQ. There's just nothing about Barrie's numbers that scream to me he's somehow unlocked anything with McDavid. Sure, they seem to be working fine together, but I give the lion's share of the credit to McDavid who is right in the middle of what is historically a forward's peak production years (I commented before about comparing Gretzky's points trajectory to where McDavid is), as opposed to Barrie. Here's where I pulled the numbers for Bear and Barrie, you can play around with the filters to look at anyone else: https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason =20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&am p;am p;am p;stdoi=std&rate=y&v=t&playerid=8478451 https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason =20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&am p;am p;am p;stdoi=std&rate=y&v=t&playerid=8475197

Yeah, this is interesting and paints a more complete picture. Thanks, Goose. And I do think the distribution of time is not insignificant and makes direct comparison's difficult. It's sort of what I imagined the time on ice distribution might look like.

It would be interesting to play Bear a little more with McDavid and see what comes of it. Also interesting that Russell has those numbers in a small sample size. Should I suggest to OilersNerdAlert that the Oilers play Russell more with McDavid?

The "Barrie-bashing" comment wasn't so much directed at anyone here as frustration that has boiled over from Twitter where there are very loud accounts that suggest the Oilers should be healthy scratching the (likely) league's defensive scoring leader. It's bizarre. But it really does seem like even among the analytics crowd, there always is one lightning rod player, be that Russell or Nurse, or this year, Barrie. What's wild, looking at those numbers, is how Nurse skates by relatively unscathed by the masses, while Barrie takes the heat he does.

Anyways, I like the fuller picture, because McDavid does make every player he plays with better, and everyone's rate of production drops a lot when he's not playing with them. I'm not sure that should be a surprise, even when it's framed kind of sloppy.

[Updated on: Tue, 11 May 2021 18:09]

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

[Updated on: Tue, 11 May 2021 15:57]

Clean house or bust

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 12:56

It is pretty typical of a segment of Oilers fan to feel the need to carve up a player. Things are going well, team is winning, they look to be a good team so it's hard to complain about the team so they go pick apart a player. He's close to scoring 50 pts in 56 games. The Oilers PP is #1 in the league, almost 2 % better than any other team but apparently it's not good enough. McD is on a 155 pt in 82 game pace, numbers we haven't seen since the 80's or early 90's but apparently Barrie is dragging down his points. I don't see the Oilers resigning just because I think he will price himself out and they have a built in guy that should be able to take over his role mostly in Bouchard for cheap. But I don't get why Oilers fans can't just enjoy things and their players. I still see people carving up Nurse and he will probably get norris vottes.

Not that bad to look at the summer and next year is it? The GM told us this season is a write off anyways :) Just not a top 5 team, even if we added at the deadline :(

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

Kr55 wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 12:58

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 12:56 It is pretty typical of a segment of Oilers fan to feel the need to carve up a player. Things are going well, team is winning, they look to be a good team so it's hard to complain about the team so they go pick apart a player. He's close to scoring 50 pts in 56 games. The Oilers PP is #1 in the league, almost 2 % better than any other team but apparently it's not good enough. McD is on a 155 pt in 82 game pace, numbers we haven't seen since the 80's or early 90's but apparently Barrie is dragging down his points. I don't see the Oilers resigning just because I think he will price himself out and they have a built in guy that should be able to take over his role mostly in Bouchard for cheap. But I don't get why Oilers fans can't just enjoy things and their players. I still see people carving up Nurse and he will probably get norris vottes. Not that bad to look at the summer and next year is it? The GM told us this season is a write off anyways :) Just not a top 5 team, even if we added at the deadline :(

I guess so but I question the guys numbers a little because they can be manipulated.

Barrie is on pace for 70 pts in 82 games. That's not enough? what should he be scoring if he was "good?"

The PP is #1 in the league, almost 2% better than #2. They are 29.5% last year and that was record setting so to think it was going to do that again isn't realistic but at the same time the Oilers played 71 games last year. Maybe if they played the same games it would get up there. But being #1 in the league and by a lot isn't good enough?

McD is doing things we haven't seen a player do in decades. Barrie is helping with that. But the 155 pt pace in 82 games he's on isn't enough?

The guys numbers are implying that Barrie isn't very good. HOW?

There are stats guys out there who will say that Nurse isn't a very good dman. Am I supposed to believe that too?

[Updated on: Tue, 11 May 2021 14:06]

mightyreasoner wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 14:01

The problem with that set of tweets and data selection is the implication and conclusion: that if you were to take all of Tyson Barrie's minutes this season and divide it up between Adam Larsson and Ethan Bear, not only would McDavid's numbers be just as ridiculous as they are now, they'd actually be even better! Adam "first pass" Larsson (9 points) and Ethan Bear (8 points) are apparently the key to unlocking more offense out of McDavid and pushing him to 117 points instead of 102 points. Never mind that both of those guys have been with McDavid for years, the data selected seem to implicate that if those two were playing with McDavid instead of Tyson Barrie, McDavid would have hit 100 points weeks ago. I don't think anyone is going to question that McDavid helps Barrie more than Barrie helps McDavid. We all know the less time Barrie is playing in his own end, the better (and if there is an argument to make against him, that's the one, that his offensive benefit doesn't outweigh his defensively liability, though as those tweets point out, he's outscored opposition this year when on the ice). But it's just such a jump in my mind to conclude that Larsson and Bear playing with McDavid would cause him to be produce at a higher rate offensively this year than he has. It really feels like there is something more to be seen in the data, something missing, or else Larsson's agent should be pointing this exact scenario out in contract negotiations this summer.

Literally no one, not one single person, is saying that if you replaced Barrie's minutes with Larsson that McDavid would score more. The numbers don't even suggest that. In terms of RHD ranked by minutes played with McDavid, McDavid scores:

Barrie - 3.41 pts/60
Bear - 4.12 pts/60
Larsson - 2.12 pts/60

Again, my point isn't to disparage what Barrie has brought to the Oilers this year. He was a good signing for the price and term they got him for. And I'm not even saying that if you flipped Barrie's and Bear's minutes that McDavid would have scored more (although I'm not not saying that either ). I just don't think there's any indication that the gap between the two is so large as to justify signing Barrie for $5M - $7M on a long term deal. https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason =20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&am p;stdoi=std&rate=y&v=t&playerid=8478402

Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

mightyreasoner wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 15:01

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 14:03 Kr55 wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 12:58 RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 12:56 It is pretty typical of a segment of Oilers fan to feel the need to carve up a player. Things are going well, team is winning, they look to be a good team so it's hard to complain about the team so they go pick apart a player. He's close to scoring 50 pts in 56 games. The Oilers PP is #1 in the league, almost 2 % better than any other team but apparently it's not good enough. McD is on a 155 pt in 82 game pace, numbers we haven't seen since the 80's or early 90's but apparently Barrie is dragging down his points. I don't see the Oilers resigning just because I think he will price himself out and they have a built in guy that should be able to take over his role mostly in Bouchard for cheap. But I don't get why Oilers fans can't just enjoy things and their players. I still see people carving up Nurse and he will probably get norris vottes. Not that bad to look at the summer and next year is it? The GM told us this season is a write off anyways :) Just not a top 5 team, even if we added at the deadline :( I guess so but I question the guys numbers a little because they can be manipulated. Barrie is on pace for 70 pts in 82 games. That's not enough? what should he be scoring if he was "good?" The PP is #1 in the league, almost 2% better than #2. They are 29.5% last year and that was record setting so to think it was going to do that again isn't realistic but at the same time the Oilers played 71 games last year. Maybe if they played the same games it would get up there. But being #1 in the league and by a lot isn't good enough? McD is doing things we haven't seen a player do in decades. Barrie is helping with that. But the 155 pt pace in 82 games he's on isn't enough? The guys numbers are implying that Barrie isn't very good. HOW? There are stats guys out there who will say that Nurse isn't a very good dman. Am I supposed to believe that too? The problem with that set of tweets and data selection is the implication and conclusion: that if you were to take all of Tyson Barrie's minutes this season and divide it up between Adam Larsson and Ethan Bear, not only would McDavid's numbers be just as ridiculous as they are now, they'd actually be even better! Adam "first pass" Larsson (9 points) and Ethan Bear (8 points) are apparently the key to unlocking more offense out of McDavid and pushing him to 117 points instead of 102 points. Never mind that both of those guys have been with McDavid for years, the data selected seem to implicate that if those two were playing with McDavid instead of Tyson Barrie, McDavid would have hit 100 points weeks ago. I don't think anyone is going to question that McDavid helps Barrie more than Barrie helps McDavid. We all know the less time Barrie is playing in his own end, the better (and if there is an argument to make against him, that's the one, that his offensive benefit doesn't outweigh his defensively liability, though as those tweets point out, he's outscored opposition this year when on the ice). But it's just such a jump in my mind to conclude that Larsson and Bear playing with McDavid would cause him to be produce at a higher rate offensively this year than he has. It really feels like there is something more to be seen in the data, something missing, or else Larsson's agent should be pointing this exact scenario out in contract negotiations this summer.

A few things:

- Bear probably does have more offence than he's shown this year. He's not been used in a role that gives him a lot of opportunity there this year. Because Tippett has done so much of the year with a five-man unit for McDavid with Barrie & Nurse, it's meant that Bear's had a lot of his time down roster. As we know, the third and fourth lines don't contribute anywhere close to as much as they should, so not an easy place to get points.

- For RDOF, I don't think anyone hates Tyson Barrie. He's done a good job this year, and he's delivered the good when it comes to what's been expected of him. He's contributing points, he's not a massive defensive liability either, despite playing against good competition. Playing with McDavid really helps with that - he puts other team's top guys on the defensive. However, I don't believe the Oilers can afford to sign Tyson Barrie to the contract he's going to sign this summer, and I think it would be a mistake to commit multiple years and big dollars to him.

- It is interesting some of the difference between Nurse and Barrie - despite them playing together much of the year. Nurse is +29 - tied for 2nd in the league, Barrie is +6. Plus/Minus is relevant on a relative basis...so that's a bit of an odd gap.

- I am admittedly bullish on Bouchard, and think a lot of the loss of Barrie can be mitigated by him. I think he'll be an excellent powerplay defenceman. I like the mobility and the game sense. He has more than just a big blast (although he has an absolute cannon) in that he can take the quick sneaky wrist shot that gets through traffic, and he can make the 3/4 speed shot for tips. He seems to pass really well too. I'm excited to see what he can do with the PP and what he can add given a bigger role. Some of that bigger role needs to come at the expense of Barrie - because you can't have them both as the point man on the powerplay. Whether that happens this coming season or the one after, if Bouchard takes minutes from Barrie on the man advantage, Barrie is immediately overpaid. Just under 50% of his points are powerplay points this year.

- I also think that if you keep Barrie, and assuming the reports are true that the Oilers do prioritize Larsson over all their other free agents, then you need to trade either Bear or Bouchard (or get Tippett comfortable with playing Bouchard at LD). Another year sitting and watching games is not good for Bouchard's development and terrible for the Oilers asset management. I think he has done enough to show he's ready for a spot on the team, and so that means we have an extra decent RD. If we re-sign Barrie (and Larsson), then that's too valuable an asset to not put in play to address another need.

- The one other point worth remembering is that Darnell Nurse is UFA at the end of next year. If you put $7MM plus in Tyson Barrie's bank account next year and several after that, do you have enough to pay Nurse what he's going to demand? Can you afford to pay them both long-term? What happens then if Bouchard breaks through and Barrie falls off? MacT didn't want to have three $4MM defenceman - what if they're all making $7MM+???

- I think enjoy Barrie for what he is - a one-year Oiler who was a great fit for meeting both our objectives. We got a great PP player to replace Klefbom while he's out, and a bridge until the Bouchard era begins. He got an opportunity to really push his scoring numbers and to give him the best possible shot at getting top dollar and term from someone this summer. If we're REALLY lucky, he can leave with a Cup ring too (although it would have helped if we'd added another top-six forward or another good goalie)...

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

I make music:
Undermaker442

308 Media Group

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

[Updated on: Wed, 12 May 2021 10:16]

I make music:
Undermaker442

308 Media Group

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks