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You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you just might find, you can get a lottery pick.

You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you just might find, you can get a lottery pick.

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

Just FYI, since records are fun


Steven Psihogios @StevenPsihogios

Mikko Koskinen is the 1st goalie to earn 0 saves on 4+ shot attempts since Washington Capitals goalie Don Beaupre did so on November 24, 1989.

He is the 3rd goalie to earn 0 saves on 4+ shot attempts since the NHL began tracking saves during the 1955-56 season. #LetsGoOilers

Here are the stat lines from the other two netminders, Beaupre and Dan Bouchard. 0-for-4 is a universally bad line regardless of the sport you play.




McDavid with 12 points in his last 12 periods too. Had a 15 points in 15 periods run right before on pointless game vs the Lames on April 29th.

[Updated on: Thu, 06 May 2021 22:34]

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

In fairness to Hall, I've wanted to throw a waterbottle at Eakins all season.
~nullterm 03/22/2014

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 06 May 2021 22:27

Just FYI, since records are fun Steven Psihogios @StevenPsihogios Mikko Koskinen is the 1st goalie to earn 0 saves on 4+ shot attempts since Washington Capitals goalie Don Beaupre did so on November 24, 1989. He is the 3rd goalie to earn 0 saves on 4+ shot attempts since the NHL began tracking saves during the 1955-56 season. #LetsGoOilers Here are the stat lines from the other two netminders, Beaupre and Dan Bouchard. 0-for-4 is a universally bad line regardless of the sport you play. McDavid with 12 points in his last 12 periods too. Had a 15 points in 15 periods run right before on pointless game vs the Lames on April 29th.

So I was browsing the stats page and noticed Koskinen's crappy performance last night reduced his save% to 0.900. This got me thinking that if a typical goalie stops 1 out of 10 shots, then the probability of letting in four consecutive goals on any four consecutive shots is 1/10000. So in any game the probability that a goalie WON'T let in the first 4 shots is 0.9999. Thus in a typical year of 1230 games the probability of this never happening is 0.9999^2460 = 78%. So the probability of a goalie letting in the first four goals happening during a season would be about 22%. So it should happen about once every five years.

My point is, it seems odd that this happens so rarely. Even if I increase the sv% to 0.910, it would be about 15%.

I wonder if the research above was for a single goalie. I'm guessing most goalies who let in the first three goals are pulled, and thus don't have the opportunity to let in the fourth. I wonder if we looked for a TEAM getting scored on in the first four shots we would find more.

[Updated on: Fri, 07 May 2021 18:08]

benv wrote on Fri, 07 May 2021 18:06

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 06 May 2021 22:27 Just FYI, since records are fun Steven Psihogios @StevenPsihogios Mikko Koskinen is the 1st goalie to earn 0 saves on 4+ shot attempts since Washington Capitals goalie Don Beaupre did so on November 24, 1989. He is the 3rd goalie to earn 0 saves on 4+ shot attempts since the NHL began tracking saves during the 1955-56 season. #LetsGoOilers Here are the stat lines from the other two netminders, Beaupre and Dan Bouchard. 0-for-4 is a universally bad line regardless of the sport you play. McDavid with 12 points in his last 12 periods too. Had a 15 points in 15 periods run right before on pointless game vs the Lames on April 29th. So I was browsing the stats page and noticed Koskinen's crappy performance last night reduced his save% to 0.900. This got me thinking that if a typical goalie stops 1 out of 10 shots, then the probability of letting in four consecutive goals on any four consecutive shots is 1/10000. So in any game the probability that a goalie WON'T let in the first 4 shots is 0.9999. Thus in a typical year of 1230 games the probability of this never happening is 0.9999^2460 = 78%. So the probability of a goalie letting in the first four goals happening during a season would be about 22%. So it should happen about once every five years. My point is, it seems odd that this happens so rarely. Even if I increase the sv% to 0.910, it would be about 15%. I wonder if the research above was for a single goalie. I'm guessing most goalies who let in the first three goals are pulled, and thus don't have the opportunity to let in the fourth. I wonder if we looked for a TEAM getting scored on in the first four shots we would find more.

That makes sense, that lots of goalies would not be given the chance to let the 4th one in. Wonder if there is also a chance in the psychology of team putting the goals in, that you start sitting back after the 2nd goal and even more after the 3rd, increasing the chance that a team would just send some weak muffin on net because of a more defensive posture to make it harder to score the 4th one.

[Updated on: Fri, 07 May 2021 18:28]

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

benv wrote on Fri, 07 May 2021 18:06

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 06 May 2021 22:27 Just FYI, since records are fun Steven Psihogios @StevenPsihogios Mikko Koskinen is the 1st goalie to earn 0 saves on 4+ shot attempts since Washington Capitals goalie Don Beaupre did so on November 24, 1989. He is the 3rd goalie to earn 0 saves on 4+ shot attempts since the NHL began tracking saves during the 1955-56 season. #LetsGoOilers Here are the stat lines from the other two netminders, Beaupre and Dan Bouchard. 0-for-4 is a universally bad line regardless of the sport you play. McDavid with 12 points in his last 12 periods too. Had a 15 points in 15 periods run right before on pointless game vs the Lames on April 29th. So I was browsing the stats page and noticed Koskinen's crappy performance last night reduced his save% to 0.900. This got me thinking that if a typical goalie stops 1 out of 10 shots, then the probability of letting in four consecutive goals on any four consecutive shots is 1/10000. So in any game the probability that a goalie WON'T let in the first 4 shots is 0.9999. Thus in a typical year of 1230 games the probability of this never happening is 0.9999^2460 = 78%. So the probability of a goalie letting in the first four goals happening during a season would be about 22%. So it should happen about once every five years. My point is, it seems odd that this happens so rarely. Even if I increase the sv% to 0.910, it would be about 15%. I wonder if the research above was for a single goalie. I'm guessing most goalies who let in the first three goals are pulled, and thus don't have the opportunity to let in the fourth. I wonder if we looked for a TEAM getting scored on in the first four shots we would find more.

If you’re looking at it from a probability point of view, you’d have to factor in that shot quality varies as well, lowering the probability of a goal on each of the four shots.

You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you just might find, you can get a lottery pick.

"Bah Gawd! Would somebody stop the damn draft!"

- Jim Ross calling the NHL Draft Lotto 2015 as the Oilers win

Survivor CHAMP S52 | S66
OG's #MUSTWIN Scale
Category 1 - Lightly Musty
Category 2 - Moderately Musty
Category 3 - Considerably Musty
Category 4 - Severely Musty
Category 5 - Incredibly Musty

Survivor LX(I) and 67 Champ(i)on

CrusaderPi wrote on Thu, 30 January 2020 12:21

und(i)sputed O.L.F.N Heavybra(i)n Champ(i)on of the Woooooooooooooooooorld. Plus. One.

[Updated on: Fri, 07 May 2021 08:22]

Survivor CHAMP S52 | S66
OG's #MUSTWIN Scale
Category 1 - Lightly Musty
Category 2 - Moderately Musty
Category 3 - Considerably Musty
Category 4 - Severely Musty
Category 5 - Incredibly Musty

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

"There's no greater springboard to development than failure." - Craig MacTavish, April 13/15.

5-14-6-1

"Sabres think the suck is their ally? They merely adopted the suck. The Oilers were born in it...molded by it."

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

Clean house or bust

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

[Updated on: Fri, 07 May 2021 10:53]

McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!!
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

I make music:
Undermaker442

308 Media Group

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!!
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

Survivor CHAMP S52 | S66
OG's #MUSTWIN Scale
Category 1 - Lightly Musty
Category 2 - Moderately Musty
Category 3 - Considerably Musty
Category 4 - Severely Musty
Category 5 - Incredibly Musty

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireBobbyNicks

Survivor CHAMP S52 | S66
OG's #MUSTWIN Scale
Category 1 - Lightly Musty
Category 2 - Moderately Musty
Category 3 - Considerably Musty
Category 4 - Severely Musty
Category 5 - Incredibly Musty

McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!!
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000