RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 20 December 2018 09:20

WhoreableGuy wrote on Thu, 20 December 2018 10:11 RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 19 December 2018 16:16 Seeing lots of tweets about last nights game and the stats guys complaining. A reason why I sometimes have a hard time buying into the stats community and some of the stuff they put out. Woodguy- big time Oilers stats guy who is very vocal - tweeting about how the Oilers need to take Chiasson off the top line because they aren't scoring enough. McDavid is on a 118 pt pace. Leon is on a 98 pt pace. Chiasson has 15 goals so may end up with mid 20's in goals which is good, top line production from the 3rd guy on the line. #1, who else is there. #2, How much more can they seriously think they can score? 2 guys with close too or over 100 pts and the 3rd guy with mid 20's in goals isn't enough? I don't see why Rattie shouldn't get a few games back on the top line like Chaisson. The guy knows how to play with McDavid, I'm just not sure that Hitch would He's not useful on the bottom 6, Chiasson was at least still scoring not playing with McDavid. I think it would balance the lines more. I agree. That is why when I saw Woodguy post that Chiasson shouldn't be on the top line, I didn't get it. There will be 2 guys at or well past 100 pts and the 3rd wheel on the line probably scoring mid 20's in goals and that isn't enough?

I don't want to speak for Woodguy, but that's not exactly what he said.

I'm assuming that this is the tweet you were referencing:

Quote:

@Woodguy55: Hitch has to change out Chiasson on the top line. The only reason their GF% hasn't tanked is due to .950 goaltending behind them. The rest of the results are really bad when you consider its McDavid and Drai out there:

The usual caveat about small sample sizes and such, but those underlying numbers aren't good. His point isn't specifically that they aren't scoring enough, but that without a .950 save percentage behind them, they would likely be giving up more goals than they are scoring, which isn't okay.

https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1075419767169642497

And later on in the thread, he posted this:

Quote:

@Woodguy55: 3.59 with Chiasson and 4.59 w/o him.

Those are GF/60 rates, so they are actually scoring less with Chiasson than without him. I haven't dug into the numbers at all, so there may be some usage things going on there. And that 4.59 number will include some time with RNH, so it may make more sense to spread out the scoring more.

https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1075421138593824769

But it's the top numbers that are more concerning. It doesn't matter how much that line is scoring if they're on the ice for more goals against than they score, this team is not going to make up that difference from the bottom 12.

[Updated on: Thu, 20 December 2018 10:58]

Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games