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 jds308
Messages: 119
Registered: September 2007
Location: Summerland
No Cups
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| McDavid97 wrote on Thu, 21 October 2021 07:01 |
| Hibernia wrote on Thu, 21 October 2021 07:02 |
So, the talk these past couple of weeks is that Tippett is loading up McDrai on the top line at home while he plans to split them up on the road where the home team will have a harder time matching up against both of them. It's the old Crosby-Malkin strategy. Tonight, we find out if that is true.
Even if it is true, I'm not sure the strategy really makes sense. On the one hand, Tippett doesn't even line match at home. He's just playing McDrai as much as reasonably possible and who cares who they're out there against.
On the other hand, this is Arizona they're playing against tonight. Splitting McDrai up tonight may make sense just because the Coyotes top two lines aren't deep enough to stop either of them.
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I do hope they split them up but the second line looked good from what I saw last game (if Kassian was on it)
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Here's my thinking, on what I think Dave Tippets thinking is on playing 97 and 29 together. Did that sentence make sense?
97/29 are the best duo in the NHL, this is not really disputable. Add 13 to the mix and it's certainly not downgrading anything. This line will outscore their opposition most nights, so what Tippet is betting on is that the rest of the forwards can at worst saw off against their opposition. If this happens, the Oilers win 5v5, and with their awesome pp, likely win most games. It’s a long season, and you have to bank points whenever you can, as displayed in the first 3 games of the season. Good teams consistently beat the bottom half of the league, even on nights where they are outplayed, as Oilers fans we know the feeling of losing games that we probably played well enough to win. This is how teams have 100+ point seasons, and divisional games are that much more important.
I personally think for the Oilers to ever win it all, 97 and 29 need to be on their own lines, but you have to get to the playoffs first, and ideally not scrap your way into a wildcard spot, but seed as high as possible. That means something, even if it’s largely on the back of beating up on the bottom feeders. So I can see the logic in playing the odds against weaker teams that have no answer to 97/29 together. I don’t know what the actual numbers would say, but if the odds say the Oilers will win 75% of their games vs the bottom half of the league when playing them together, I think you have to take that approach no? That's roughly 60pts over the course of a season and that’s money in the bank. Then you adapt your strategy against stronger teams where you're win ratio is closer to .500 and there's your 100pt season.
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