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 Re: Scouting Staff Change Up [message #740348 is a reply to message #740342 ]
Thu, 11 July 2019 18:15 Go to previous messageGo to previous message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

overdue wrote on Thu, 11 July 2019 16:09

The farm team was probably in as good as or better shape than it's ever been when Chia got the axe. Not sure how much he had to do with that but it's something. At least there are real prospects in the system now and especially on defence which has been so pathetic in the past.


I don't really know that I'm giving a lot of credit for the farm team. The team won a playoff round last year, but our actual prospect pipeline isn't that deep. There's only a handful of the guys in the organization who have a real shot at being NHL players, and none of them are forwards we should expect ever to play a meaningful top-six role at the NHL level.

That's miles better than having no farm team at all like we did for two seasons under Lowe (2005-06 and 2006-07), but it's not exactly a pipeline of excellence.

Chiarelli was schizophrenic with the farm team too.

Here's 2015-16:
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/007 3882016.html
Veteran dominated team with some contributions from Pre-Chia prospects such as Khaira, Slepyshev, Pitlick and Oesterle. Virtually all the biggest contributors (Ford, Hunt, Miller, Hamilton) pre-dated Chiarelli. His big stamp on the team was adding Griffin Reinhart, who got in 30 games and put up 10 points.

Team went 31-28-9 under Gerry Fleming. Missed the playoffs.

2016-17
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/007 3882017.html
Older players still a big driver, and again lots of guys who pre-date Chia at the top of the list - Lander, LaLeggia, Hamilton, Oesterle. Two Chia signings stand out here - Currie (signed a year earlier) and Beck. Patrick Russell is on the squad now as a Chia signing, but meh.

For NHL-bound talent, we have Puljujarvi in the second half of the season (he could have played his entire 18-year old season in Bakersfield), Oesterle, Khaira and 9 games of Slepyshev.

33-29-6 under Fleming. Still no playoffs.

2017-18
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/007 3882018.html

The first Chia era draft picks start arriving on the scene. They're young, so limited impact, but Bear and Jones make the jump. There's SO MANY defencemen that it's hard for anyone to get a great shot. That's in part because Chiarelli signed everyone available to a deal. A very low percentage of those players were useful pieces. Rattie and Malone were decent. Patrick Russell was not awful in his second season. Currie led the team in points. Almost everyone from the Pre-Chia era has turned over by this point. Only LaLeggia and Hamilton play significant roles.

For NHL-level prospects, we have Bear, Jones, Puljujarvi and that's about it.

31-27-10 for Fleming's last season. Again out of the playoffs. Fleming was criticized for playing the vets too much, but it'mostly what he got from Chiarelli. The team delivered him exceptionally few blue chip prospects, so which ones did he fail to progress? When the GM signs 10 mid-20s AHLers to two-way deals, is he supposed to not play them?

2018-19
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/007 3882019.html
Benson and Marody are breakouts in their rookie AHL seasons and lead the team in points. New signing Gambardella is pretty decent too. Currie the last remaining player as far as I can tell who's been on the team all four years (he has one more year left too).

Chia's minor league acquisitions continue to be pretty hit or miss. Gambardella is good, but Larkin and Vesey can't even crack the AHL lineup. Still lots of relatively old guys playing important roles (Callahan, Day, Gust)

NHL calibre prospects again include Bear and Jones, as well as Yamamoto (when not hurt), Benson and Marody.

First year under Jay Woodcroft, and the team goes 42-21-5, making the playoffs and winning one round.

The interesting thing is that the team wasn't markedly better in scoring. They didn't have any real standouts offensively - Lander still out-performed the guys at the top of this roster. Starrett's goaltending at 0.918 was really quite good, but two years ago Nick Ellis played 34 games with similar numbers alongside Gustavsson who was .917. I think the defence is better than it has been, but looking at these teams side-by-side, there's nothing to suggest this team is miles better than a couple years earlier...but they did win a handful more games and that was enough to get them in the playoffs. And 5 legit prospects is better than some of those years above.

Moving forward

Interesting to note, there's VERY few AHL veterans under contract now. The Oilers have just 6 players not on their entry level deals - Malone, Gambardella, Russell, Currie, Lowe, and Starrett. There could yet be some added but for the moment, it's looking like a younger version of the team than we've seen in years - including compared to last year.

Weird quirk - Colby Cave has the lowest contract on the Oilers at $675K (tied with Keegan Lowe). Everyone else makes some premium over the league minimum if they're called up.

Anyhow, all this to say, it's better, but not world's better with Chia from where it stood when he took it over, and the difference may be one or two better prospects only.



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireLowe #FireBobbyNicks #FireKenHolland #FireKeithGretzky

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