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Oilers » Oilers sign Jurco for 750k, 1y

Re: Oilers sign Jurco for 750k, 1y [message #739843 is a reply to message #739838 ]	Wed, 03 July 2019 11:40

Adam
Messages: 6815
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 03 July 2019 11:15

I am hoping for a few guys to chip in 10-15 goals, something that the Oilers severely lacked last year. He had 6 goals in 29 games in 17-18. So maybe it's possible. The good thing about him is he can skate so he might be a better bet to do that than Rattie.

Only 6 Oilers last year with 10 or more goals, and one of those was Darnell Nurse, who I don't think you should expect double digit contributions from most seasons.

Caggiula, with 7 goals in 29 games was still seventh on the team in goal scoring - pretty incredible lack of depth production.

The top six goal scorers made up 166 of the team's 232 goals for a stunning 72%.

For comparison, the Lightning's top six goal scorers scored 197 times and the team scored 325 goals. Only 61% generated by the top six guys, despite the fact there's some really elite guys in that group and three 40+ goal scorers.

The depth group for the Lightning outscored the Oilers depth by 62 goals.

On the other side of the coin, the lowest scoring team in the league was the Ducks with just 199 goals. Their top six guys had 99 combined, so their depth outscored the Oilers depth by 34 goals.

I don't have time to do all the math here, but I think it's a pretty decent bet that the Oilers were the league's worst team on depth scoring last year, so a few different faces in the bottom six is welcome. You have to hope SOMEONE can chip in a few, especially since as it sits right now, I think it's likely that we're going to see some decline in the top-six goal scoring.

Draisaitl - 50 - likely declines based on his out of this world shooting percentage of 21.6% last year. Among top scorers, only Brayden Point had a comparable number last year...I'd expect both players to see that decline in 2019-20.
McDavid - 41 - probably scores in the 40s again, health allowing. He's remarkably consistent, and I could even see him a little higher. Maybe he and Draisaitl are a wash in the end.
Nugent-Hopkins - 28 - Probably can hold serve here. It would help if we had anyone for him to play with.
Chiasson - 22 - likely to decline this year. This was a career best by 9 goals for a guy who was 28 years old. A reasonable expectation would be 13-15 - closer to his career norm.
Kassian - 15 - Another career high. Also a career high in number of shots, so maybe if he keeps his shot rates coming at the same pace he can duplicate this, but if I was gambling on it, I'd probably take the under. Maybe 12-13 is a reasonable guess.
Nurse - 10 - Tied for 26th in the league in goal scoring amongst defencemen. Only 29 blue-liners had 10 or more goals, and Nurse benefited from Klefbom's injuries to get the powerplay push. He may not get that next year. He's not a great shooter, so I think it's a stretch to expect 10 out of him again. Maybe Klefbom can increase his output to offset any drop from Nurse...

If we shed 5-10 goals from that top six, we probably need the bottom part of the roster to add at least 25 to be in the playoff conversation even, considering the only teams with even close to our production to make the playoffs were the Predators and Islanders - two teams that were really stingy goal-wise...that's something I wouldn't count on with a Koskinen/Smith tandem...

Hopefully some of these new guys can be part of that solution...we could sure use some luck.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
~~#FireLowe~~ #FireBobbyNicks #FireKenHolland #FireKeithGretzky

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Oilers sign Jurco for 750k, 1y	By: Kr55 on Mon, 01 July 2019 12:22
Re: Oilers sign Jurco for 750k, 1y	By: inverno76 on Mon, 01 July 2019 12:37
Re: Oilers sign Jurco for 750k, 1y	By: smyth260 on Mon, 01 July 2019 13:12
Re: Oilers sign Jurco for 750k, 1y	By: inverno76 on Mon, 01 July 2019 13:16
Re: Oilers sign Jurco for 750k, 1y	By: Skookum Jim on Tue, 02 July 2019 14:31
Re: Oilers sign Jurco for 750k, 1y	By: Adam on Tue, 02 July 2019 15:53
Re: Oilers sign Jurco for 750k, 1y	By: Skookum Jim on Tue, 02 July 2019 18:02
Re: Oilers sign Jurco for 750k, 1y	By: RDOilerfan on Wed, 03 July 2019 08:10
Re: Oilers sign Jurco for 750k, 1y	By: Skookum Jim on Wed, 03 July 2019 11:03
Re: Oilers sign Jurco for 750k, 1y	By: RDOilerfan on Wed, 03 July 2019 11:15
Re: Oilers sign Jurco for 750k, 1y	By: Skookum Jim on Wed, 03 July 2019 11:22
Re: Oilers sign Jurco for 750k, 1y	By: Adam on Wed, 03 July 2019 11:40
Re: Oilers sign Jurco for 750k, 1y	By: RDOilerfan on Wed, 03 July 2019 11:56

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