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 Re: Oilers/Hemmer media spot... [message #606123 is a reply to message #606122 ]
Fri, 06 September 2013 15:00
Magnum  is currently offline Magnum
Messages: 4345
Registered: June 2009
Location: In a Prism of Frustration

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PlusOne wrote on Fri, 06 September 2013 14:40

Magnum wrote on Thu, 05 September 2013 18:27

bigEfromGP wrote on Thu, 05 September 2013 18:04

Everyone was onboard here in June when MacT wanted to send him packing, and now everyone is so happy to have him because "he was such a good soldier", "he played tough", etc.

Gimme a break. Is this the Edmonton Happy Fun Goodtimes Club or the Edmonton Oilers, professional hockey team?

He isn't and hasn't been contributing anywhere NEARLY enough to justify a top 6 role, nevermind his $5 million dollar contract. Why everyone is so quick to give him a free pass but loved to run Penner, Smyth, a list of countless more players, out of town is beyong me.

What's everyone expecting from Hemsky this season? Give hard solid numbers and don't pussy foot around it. If he is such a good soldier with all this skill and so willing to go into the tough areas, then shouldn't his numbers reflect that?

I will very surprised to see him break 35 points this season.


This post is inaccurate:

Hemsky scored the following points in the past three years:

2010 - 11: 42pts for 130th in the league
2011 - 12: 36pts for 156th in the league
2012 - 13: 20pts for 153rd in the league

You need to be worse than the 180th highest scoring player to not be considered worthy of top six minutes. Hemsky is well within that range. If you look at points per game, it's even further in the positive direction for Hemsky.

Hemsky has gotten 0.00 free passes.

As I said earlier, I'd be delighted with 59 points, but I'd also be happy if he stayed healthy the entire year and scored at the same pace he's been at for the past three years, which would result in 52 points per game, at his five year pace it would be 62 points per game. If he missed 25% of the games this year, which is his career average, and scored 40 points, that'd be fine too.

That's not quite worth $5.5M, but it's not that far off.

This team is more than lucky to have someone like Hemsky on the third line.


Yes, you did some math here but it leaves out the fact that the 180th scoring forward is the worst top 6 forward in the league by this logic.
It also omits the idea that there are a couple of bottom 6 forwards sneaking into that list.
To say Hemsky is in the top 180 so deserves top 6 minutes is correct at a basic point of view but on a playoff team in the NHL I would doubt that is all it takes.
I like Hemsky, I like his skill, I think he is tough in that he played through injuries and didnt quit. What I dont like is that he is fearless as well and often puts him in a position to get injured. I also don't like that his skill leads to less scoring chances than it should. A stickhandling clinic only goes so far.
If his words about being a good team player and filling a role are the truth I am fine with him as a third liner/injury fill in in the top 6. If he is in the top 3-5 o this team in ice time or points it means we are far from a playoff birth.


Yes I did "some math" here, and it's not prefect, something I assumed everyone would be clued into. It's not a perfect metric, but it is an actual measure using actual result based inputs relevant to the game. There are outliers in every data set, and that's normally where the good discussion takes place. Hemsky is far from being an outlier for the second line, injuries included, with a PPG as opposed to total points, he's even less of a potential outlier.

It provides a lot more than sentences like these:

PlusOne wrote on Fri, 06 September 2013 14:40

What I dont like is that he is fearless as well and often puts him in a position to get injured. I also don't like that his skill leads to less scoring chances than it should. A stickhandling clinic only goes so far.


Because my info is actually backed up, yours isn't. To demonstrate, my rebuttal to your points can simply be "some words" like:

Yeah, what I do like is that he is fearless as he often puts himself in a position for potential injured so that the team can succeed, great Oiler! I also like that his skill leads to lots of scoring chances. A stickhandling clinic goes pretty far.

When you can both quantify and qualify an argument, then you'll have a decent point.



Learning is the most important part of learning basic defence.

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