| Is Ovechkin the Greatest Goal Scorer of All Time? [message #730408] |
Tue, 12 February 2019 20:53  |
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 smyth260
Messages: 938
Registered: November 2007
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Alex Ovechkin has 645 goals in 1058 games played. He turned 33 in September, and is on track to lead the league in goals again this year. He has 38 currently and is on pace for 56. I think it's pretty astounding what he has done in a lower scoring era, and so this would be an interesting discussion. I will be making some numbers comparisons to Gretzky, as most would probably agree that he owns the GOAT title for goals.
Some notes:
- Ovechkin has led the league in goals 7 times already. This is tied for the record with Bobby Hull. Gretzky led the league 5 times. If Ovechkin leads the league again this year, he will own the record for himself.
- Ovechkin was the 4th fastest player to 600 goals (990 games). He his behind Gretzky (718 games), Lemieux (719) and Brett Hull (900).
- Ovechkin currently has 645 goals. Gretzky has 894 goals in 1487 games.
- The next 5 points are going to be a mathematical attempt to compare Gretzky and Ovechkin while removing the the goal scoring effects of their respective era. Since Gretzky played in a very high scoring era, how can we reasonably compare the two? My theory is that a player's share of the total league wide goals will give us a useful number to compare just how dominant they were. If Gretzky scored 100 goals in a season where there were 1000 total NHL goals, he would have a 10% share of the NHL's goals. If Ovechkin scored 50 goals in a season where there were 500 total NHL goals, he would also have a 10% share of the total goals. Now we could infer that they may have similar goal scoring capabilities in this hypothetical example, instead of claiming that Gretzky was twice the goal scorer. There will be more to it than that, but this is the basis of this stat. I think this is a reasonable way to eliminate the era effects, so let's go into the actual numbers for Gretzky/Ovechkin.
- From the beginning of Ovechkin's career to today (age 33 season), there have been 91,170 total goals across the league in 16,383 games played. Ovechkin scored 645 goals in 1058 games played during this period.
- From the beginning of Gretzky's career to the end of his age 33 season (94-95), there were 100,340 total goals across the league in 13,684 games played. Gretzky scored 814 goals in 1173 games played.
- Now for the calculation. We are going to divide Ovechkin's own goals by his games played. This results in 0.61 G/GP for Ovechkin. If we divide this number by the league wide G/GP over the same period (5.56 G/GP), we'll get a ratio. This ratio represents Ovechkin's scoring rate relative to the league. This number is 0.110 for Ovechkin.
- Similarly for Gretzky's, we divide his G/GP over the same ages (0.694 G/GP) by the league wide G/GP (7.33 G/GP). This number is 0.094 for Gretzky.
- Now a higher value is better as it means that relative to the league averages in their respective eras, Ovechkin scored more goals than Gretzky. Pretty impressive.
- This method probably isn't perfect, but I think it makes comparing eras quite a bit easier. What do you think about it?
- It's also worth noting that Ovechkin's first eligible NHL season was a full season lockout. He also potentially missed 34 games due to the 12-13 lockout, for a total of 116 games missed. Gretzky would have missed 34 due to the 94-95 lockout.
If Ovechkin can lead the league for an 8th time, and score at a reasonably declining pace to finish his career, I think the conversation is going to shift in his favour quite a bit.
[Updated on: Wed, 13 February 2019 11:06]
Clean house or bust
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Is Ovechkin the Greatest Goal Scorer of All Time? |
By: smyth260 on Tue, 12 February 2019 20:53 |
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By: smyth260 on Wed, 13 February 2019 09:50 |
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By: Adam on Wed, 13 February 2019 12:22 |
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By: smyth260 on Wed, 13 February 2019 12:36 |
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By: smyth260 on Fri, 01 March 2019 23:21 |
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By: Mike on Tue, 02 November 2021 13:20 |
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By: Goose on Tue, 02 November 2021 16:58 |
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By: Mike on Tue, 02 November 2021 18:18 |
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By: smyth260 on Tue, 02 November 2021 16:59 |
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By: Mike on Thu, 18 November 2021 12:53 |
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By: K.McC#24 on Thu, 18 November 2021 13:18 |
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By: smyth260 on Wed, 16 March 2022 11:32 |
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By: oilfan94 on Wed, 16 March 2022 11:46 |
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By: Goose on Wed, 16 March 2022 12:04 |
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By: oilfan94 on Wed, 16 March 2022 13:05 |
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By: Adam on Thu, 21 April 2022 16:41 |
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By: smyth260 on Thu, 21 April 2022 18:58 |
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By: oilfan94 on Thu, 21 April 2022 22:53 |
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By: Mike on Fri, 29 April 2022 07:55 |
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By: Adam on Sat, 30 April 2022 12:08 |
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By: smyth260 on Sun, 06 November 2022 16:37 |
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By: NetBOG on Tue, 08 November 2022 11:21 |
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By: Adam on Tue, 08 November 2022 14:03 |
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By: smyth260 on Wed, 14 December 2022 00:18 |
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By: Adam on Wed, 14 December 2022 13:11 |
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By: Kr55 on Wed, 14 December 2022 13:15 |
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By: Kr55 on Wed, 14 December 2022 13:29 |
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