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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714313 is a reply to message #714311 ]
Thu, 03 May 2018 16:33 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
Messages: 8531
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

So I did my own homework on this. Quickly pulled save percentages for all goalies with at least 10 appearances last year. There were 71 goalies that saw that level of action.

For Top 30 - Mean was .921, Median was .921, lowest was .913

So by that logic, your average starter should be in the .920 or better range, and you should be expecting minimum performance of around .913 from your starter.

For Next 30 - Mean was .907, Median was .908, and lowest was .898. So your backup should be in the .908 range if he's average. At bare minimum, he should be .900.

For third strings, the worst 11 goalies had an average of .890 with a median of .893.

Interesting to note that the guys acquired by Chiarelli in Edmonton were #46 (Talbot - .908 - average backup numbers), #57 (Nilsson - .901 - bad backup numbers), #66 (Montoya - .893 - middle of the road third string numbers) and #70 (Brossoit - .883 - second worst in the entire league and a major contributor to the lost season). That's pretty damning. Maggie the Monkey would have picked better goaltending than that. The only saving grace I suppose is that three of those goalies played behind a bad Oilers team which certainly contributed to their poor showing on save percentage.

[Updated on: Thu, 03 May 2018 16:35]


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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714302 is a reply to message #714296 ]
Thu, 03 May 2018 14:00 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Goose  is currently offline Goose
Messages: 1589
Registered: October 2006
Location: Vancouver

1 Cup

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 12:13

Part of the problem and this isn't me trying to justify the signing is I don't see anyone of the NHL free agents both UFA and RFA that I am confident in or they could get.

I don't want Lehtonen, Halak, Ward, Lack, Johnson, Pavelec, all UFA's. Lehner is an RFA, I am not a fan of his and I thin he gets a least 2.5 mill, he was making 4 mill last year. Mrazek is an RFa and was crappy. Bernier was making 2.75 mill. He was decent so I think he gets at least what he made last year or more. Helleuyck obviously is Winnipegs guy. Grubeauer was making 1.5 ill, have an excellent year and I see a team like Buffalo maybe trying to get him. Regardless he's making more than 2.5 mill. Hutton for the Blues was outstanding and will get WAY more than 2.5 mill. Hammond no thanks. Hutchinson hasn't been in the league in a few years. Khudobin was ok for Boston but do they let him go?

I just listed the first 15 goalies listed needing a contract and the only 2 I would like is Grubauer and Hutton and they might be in line for some starters jobs but at the very least probably get more than 2.5 mill.


For sure there's no obvious answer. I don't want to belabor the point too much but given what they paid him, the Oilers seem pretty certain they're going to get a very good backup. I just don't see where that confidence comes from. And if they're not sure them I think the better move is to sign a backup for less and try to improve the team elsewhere.

They have Montoya at $1M, and I think, based on history that you can be pretty certain that Montoya will be around .905 - .910 and maybe slightly higher or slightly lower. Koskinen, is a huge unknown, but they're paying him like they're sure he's going to be a .915 goalie.



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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714303 is a reply to message #714296 ]
Thu, 03 May 2018 14:14 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mightyreasoner  is currently offline mightyreasoner
Messages: 2498
Registered: October 2005
Location: Edmonton

2 Cups

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 13:13

Part of the problem and this isn't me trying to justify the signing is I don't see anyone of the NHL free agents both UFA and RFA that I am confident in or they could get.

I don't want Lehtonen, Halak, Ward, Lack, Johnson, Pavelec, all UFA's. Lehner is an RFA, I am not a fan of his and I thin he gets a least 2.5 mill, he was making 4 mill last year. Mrazek is an RFa and was crappy. Bernier was making 2.75 mill. He was decent so I think he gets at least what he made last year or more. Helleuyck obviously is Winnipegs guy. Grubeauer was making 1.5 ill, have an excellent year and I see a team like Buffalo maybe trying to get him. Regardless he's making more than 2.5 mill. Hutton for the Blues was outstanding and will get WAY more than 2.5 mill. Hammond no thanks. Hutchinson hasn't been in the league in a few years. Khudobin was ok for Boston but do they let him go?

I just listed the first 15 goalies listed needing a contract and the only 2 I would like is Grubauer and Hutton and they might be in line for some starters jobs but at the very least probably get more than 2.5 mill.


FWIW, I'd be much happier with Bernier at 2.75 than Koskinen at 2.5. You know what you're getting with Bernier. And if Talbot goes down, Bernier proved he can get a half decent team to the playoffs.

Or you can look for a guy who is being squeezed by his current team. Pickard looks fully capable of being a solid backup. Both him and Subban were on waivers last season and the Oilers passed on both. Still can probably get Pickard in a trade. Or maybe you sign Cale Morris and another goalie for the AHL, roll with Montoya and see if those two develop or any other goalies hit the waiver wire like Pickard and Subban did this year.

It was very early to make a decision about an unknown commodity and to pay that much for him. If you are spending 2.5, at least see if Bernier, Graubauer, Halak, or Hutton would accept it first. You know what you're getting and it's less likely to go off the rails.



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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714304 is a reply to message #714303 ]
Thu, 03 May 2018 14:27 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrudeRemarks  is currently offline CrudeRemarks
Messages: 173
Registered: November 2010
Location: Edmonton

No Cups

Right, and what just work all summer? What's the point of missing the playoffs if you're going to be in the office until June anyways?


You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you just might find, you can get a lottery pick.


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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714527 is a reply to message #714304 ]
Fri, 11 May 2018 09:00 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Jay  is currently offline Jay
Messages: 961
Registered: January 2007
Location: Edmonton

No Cups

CrudeRemarks wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 14:27

Right, and what just work all summer? What's the point of missing the playoffs if you're going to be in the office until June anyways?

I just want to say this actually made me laugh out loud.

Its a great point. These guys have been working hard all winter. In the trenches I'd say. They absolutely need and deserve 2 or 3 months at the cottage to drink wine, jetski and recharge their batteries. This team isn't going to ruin...I mean run itself next year you know!



"Initiative comes to thems that wait"

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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714306 is a reply to message #714303 ]
Thu, 03 May 2018 14:41 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
Messages: 8531
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

mightyreasoner wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 14:14


FWIW, I'd be much happier with Bernier at 2.75 than Koskinen at 2.5. You know what you're getting with Bernier. And if Talbot goes down, Bernier proved he can get a half decent team to the playoffs.

Or you can look for a guy who is being squeezed by his current team. Pickard looks fully capable of being a solid backup. Both him and Subban were on waivers last season and the Oilers passed on both. Still can probably get Pickard in a trade. Or maybe you sign Cale Morris and another goalie for the AHL, roll with Montoya and see if those two develop or any other goalies hit the waiver wire like Pickard and Subban did this year.

It was very early to make a decision about an unknown commodity and to pay that much for him. If you are spending 2.5, at least see if Bernier, Graubauer, Halak, or Hutton would accept it first. You know what you're getting and it's less likely to go off the rails.



And I do question whether these guys think much about the cap and how they juggle everything under that cap. Here's the signed roster for next year:

Forwards (9) - $38.00MM cap hit:
McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, Lucic, Kassian, Puljujarvi, Rattie, Khaira, Aberg.

Defence (4) - $17.83MM:
Sekera, Klefbom, Larsson, Russell

Goalies (2) - $6.67MM:
Talbot, Koskinen, Montoya (minors-bound)

Assuming a $75MM cap, that means that we have $62.5MMcap space locked up for next year, and we need to add five forwards and three defencemen.

Our RFAs are Strome, Caggiula, Nurse & Benning. Strome will get similar money to last year, Nurse will get a huge raise. Caggiula and Benning will get modest raises. Reasonable guess would be $2.5, $1.5, $4.0, $1.5 - that's 9.5MM, which leaves only $3MM for the other four hires. Maybe there will be an increase in the cap and we'll get a tiny bit more room, but there's not a lot of margin for error here, so if you over pay a guy by a million bucks, it has big ramifications on the rest of the roster. We have zero winger depth, and we can't afford to go get it.

And if we were to trade for a $7MM/year offensive d-man, we would have to send significant salary dollars the other way. We can't address all the issues, and I'm not convinced that there's a big upgrade from Montoya to Koskinen, who's getting paid 2.5X as much.



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#FireLowe #FireMacT #FireHowson #FireBuchberger #FireHowsonAgain #FireChiarelli #FireMcLellan #FireBobbyNicks

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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714323 is a reply to message #714303 ]
Fri, 04 May 2018 08:31 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
Messages: 2846
Registered: January 2016

2 Cups

mightyreasoner wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 14:14

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 13:13

Part of the problem and this isn't me trying to justify the signing is I don't see anyone of the NHL free agents both UFA and RFA that I am confident in or they could get.

I don't want Lehtonen, Halak, Ward, Lack, Johnson, Pavelec, all UFA's. Lehner is an RFA, I am not a fan of his and I thin he gets a least 2.5 mill, he was making 4 mill last year. Mrazek is an RFa and was crappy. Bernier was making 2.75 mill. He was decent so I think he gets at least what he made last year or more. Helleuyck obviously is Winnipegs guy. Grubeauer was making 1.5 ill, have an excellent year and I see a team like Buffalo maybe trying to get him. Regardless he's making more than 2.5 mill. Hutton for the Blues was outstanding and will get WAY more than 2.5 mill. Hammond no thanks. Hutchinson hasn't been in the league in a few years. Khudobin was ok for Boston but do they let him go?

I just listed the first 15 goalies listed needing a contract and the only 2 I would like is Grubauer and Hutton and they might be in line for some starters jobs but at the very least probably get more than 2.5 mill.


FWIW, I'd be much happier with Bernier at 2.75 than Koskinen at 2.5. You know what you're getting with Bernier. And if Talbot goes down, Bernier proved he can get a half decent team to the playoffs.

Or you can look for a guy who is being squeezed by his current team. Pickard looks fully capable of being a solid backup. Both him and Subban were on waivers last season and the Oilers passed on both. Still can probably get Pickard in a trade. Or maybe you sign Cale Morris and another goalie for the AHL, roll with Montoya and see if those two develop or any other goalies hit the waiver wire like Pickard and Subban did this year.

It was very early to make a decision about an unknown commodity and to pay that much for him. If you are spending 2.5, at least see if Bernier, Graubauer, Halak, or Hutton would accept it first. You know what you're getting and it's less likely to go off the rails.


In my opinion, the Oilers need a goalie who can play at least 20-25 games. Montoya is most definitely not that guy. I am not rolling the dice on a college free agent. Could Pickard do it? Maybe. I just wonder at 26 yrs old, what his deal is. Why hasn't he stuck anywhere yet?

When it comes to the UFA guys you listed. You'd be asking Bernier to move to Edmonton and take a pay cut. What realistically are the odds that happens? Buffalo needs 2 new goalies because I heard a Buffalo media guy on Gregor's show say both Lehner and Johnson will be gone. Carolina's goaltending was a disaster. The Flyers goaltending was lousy and they need 2 goalies. The Islanders have Griess still signed but he was lousy and Halak will be gone. Who's the starter in St. Louis? They have Allen but Hutton might have took that job last season. So that's 5 teams with unsettled goaltending and potentially 5 starters job. Both Hutton and Grubauer had really good numbers and I would assume they would get starters offers or at least 1A jobs from a few of the teams I listed. So they will make way more than 2.5 mill.

[Updated on: Fri, 04 May 2018 08:41]


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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714991 is a reply to message #714323 ]
Fri, 25 May 2018 14:51 Go to previous message
inverno76  is currently offline inverno76
Messages: 748
Registered: September 2005
Location: Prince Albert, Saskatchew...

No Cups

It’s a bad signing because you’re giving him too much money. The only way he fulfills his potential deal is if becomes a top back up in the league. There is no value to the deal. You can only lose or break even. Couldn’t imagine running a business where your only goal was to break even.

If he’s unbelievable he earns his contract. Anything less and we lose.

I’d rather run with Montoya.

[Updated on: Sat, 26 May 2018 19:37]


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