This day on November 20
None

Happy Birthday To: d_ottosen, lambofgad, Ofer, JayStyles, oilpride5

F.A.Q. Terms of Use F.A.Q. F.A.Q.
Members Members   Search Search     Register Register   Login Login   Home Home
 Speculation » Expectations for McDavid and Draisaitl
Switch to flat viewSwitch to tree viewCreate a new topicSubmit Reply
 Expectations for McDavid and Draisaitl [message #697809]
Wed, 19 July 2017 18:32 Go to next message
Goose  is currently offline Goose
Messages: 1617
Registered: October 2006
Location: Vancouver

1 Cup

Lowetide has been posting his Reasonable Expectations series on his blog. It’s really good if you’re interested in that sort of thing.

He’s finished McDavid and Drai already (our two most important forwards without question), and I found it interesting that he’s got them both producing about 10% more than last year:
- McDavid – 37g/73a/110pts
http://lowetide.ca/2017/07/14/re-17-18-connor-mcdavid-everlo ng/

- Drai – 26g/58a/84pts
http://lowetide.ca/2017/07/17/re-17-18-leon-draisaitl-bridge -burning/

I disagree with him a bit for a couple of reasons. I don’t think they play together for as many games this season, and that will likely hurt both their numbers (Draisaitl more than McDavid). And I think Sekera’s injury hurts them both.

I had also read on twitter (can’t remember where now), that Crosby, Ovechkin and Malkin all peaked in terms of points production by their 3rd year (which Leon has just completed). That seemed a bit odd, as I’ve read other analysis that shows that NHL players peak offensively around 23 or 24 in general. There’s probably a couple of things going on there:

- The Crosby group benefitted from the more stringent obstruction calling that came out of the lockout and scored more points early as the league was scoring more overall
- Top picks are more likely to play earlier, so the overall peak at 23 or 24 is probably skewed older by the fact that most guys don’t make the NHL at 18 and take a couple years to really get up to speed in the NHL and therefore their best year would be when they’re older.

I was curious, so I looked at all the drafts from 2004 (Ovechkin’s) to 2013 and where the top 3 picks peaked in terms of points.

Of the 23 forwards taken, 10 hit their peak in points in their first 3 years and have not surpassed it (Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, Ryan, RNH, Landeskog, Yak, Mackinnon, Barkov, Drouin. For some of the more recent draft picks, I think it’s really too early to make any conclusive, although it’s probably likely that a guy like Yakupov never surpasses his 3rd season. Should also be noted that Hall’s highest point total was in his 4th season, but he had a higher ppg in his 3rd season (1.11 to 1.07). Drouin, Barkov and MacKinnon may surpass their early totals, but it’s definitely not guaranteed.

Of the group that hit their peak later, there’s kind of two distinct groups: those that beat their highest point total by 6% or less: J. Staal, Stamkos, Tavares, and Duchene. And those that beat it by more than 10%: Toews, Kane, JVR, Turris, Hall, Seguin, Huberdeau and Galchenyuk. Of that group, you can really only say that Kane and Seguin are top end offensive players (again Hall’s total being higher is only a function of games played).

So it appears likely that the top end offensive players hit their peak or close to it, in their first 3 years in the league. Now, obviously nothing is guaranteed, but it seems unlikely that Draisaitl scores more points than he did last year and 10% would be a big jump.

McDavid is more likely to surpass last year’s total being that it will be his 3rd season, and he’s just a better player. Like I said, I think he will suffer a bit from not playing with Draisaitl as much, but he will probably benefit from playing more with Maroon and less with Lucic. Contrary to popular opinion, Lucic was the one that was really the drag on the line, not Eberle. This is from Woodguy’s comment in the Leon post of Lowetide’s blog:


Quote:

Goals For/60 5v5
19-97-14 – 3.87
19-97-29 – 3.57

27-97-14 – 2.58
27-97-29 – 2.41

Goal Share 5v5 (GF%)
19-97-14 – 64.3%
19-97-29 – 60.4%

27-97-14 – 76.9%
27-97-29 – 42.9%

The reason Drai shows us as having better overall GF/60 results with 97 is an artifact of TOI together skewed heavily to 19 on LW whereas 14’s TOI w/ 97 is heavier with 27 on LW.

TOI
19-97-14 – 139 min
19-97-29 – 538 min
27-97-14 – 232 min
27-97-29 – 74 min



Send a private message to this user  

 Re: Expectations for McDavid and Draisaitl [message #697815 is a reply to message #697809 ]
Thu, 20 July 2017 08:26 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently online RDOilerfan
Messages: 2169
Registered: January 2016

2 Cups

I agree with the 37-110 for McDavid. For the first part of the year he was passing up great shots and trying to pass. I understand why as a young player, you see it happen all the time. Yet he still ended up with 30 goals. With him passing up some good shot and trying to force a pass, it probably cost him 5-10 pts. So I can easily see 110 pts.

I think/hope the Oilers play Draisaitl at center. I have said it many times, as good as Leon and McDavid are together, the Oilers best line up is to have them each as a center. Leon is easily the Oilers second best center and the Oilers NEED to have a second line scoring. As much as I love Nuge, I don't see him as a second line center for the Oilers. So if Leon is anchoring his own line, I see him as a 26-70 pt center.

IF they do decide to play Leon with McDavid, then over 80 for sure but I just don't think that is best for the team. If the Oilers have McDavid and Leon as the 1-2 punch, that is easily the best young 1-2 punch in the league and the only one that rivals it would be Crosby - Malkin.

[Updated on: Thu, 20 July 2017 11:32]


Send a private message to this user  

 Re: Expectations for McDavid and Draisaitl [message #697817 is a reply to message #697815 ]
Thu, 20 July 2017 10:37 Go to previous messageGo to next message
hitmen4  is currently offline hitmen4
Messages: 10
Registered: April 2010

No Cups

I think McDavid's estimate will be fairly accurate. Not so bullish on Draisaitl's though. The list of players to get 84 points or higher last year was a short one: McDavid, Crosby, Kane, Backstrom, Kucherov and Marchand. As much as I like Drai as a player, I don't see him in that category just yet. But hey, if Marchand can get there, why can't Drai? Wave Towel


Send a private message to this user  

 Re: Expectations for McDavid and Draisaitl [message #697818 is a reply to message #697817 ]
Thu, 20 July 2017 11:13 Go to previous messageGo to next message
inverno76  is currently offline inverno76
Messages: 782
Registered: September 2005
Location: Prince Albert, Saskatchew...

No Cups

Gretzky peaked at year 7, although he did have 212 in year 3! icon_wink


Send a private message to this user  

 Re: Expectations for McDavid and Draisaitl [message #697820 is a reply to message #697815 ]
Thu, 20 July 2017 11:29 Go to previous messageGo to next message
PlusOne  is currently offline PlusOne
Messages: 1006
Registered: July 2006
Location: Regina, Sask

1 Cup

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 20 July 2017 08:26

I agree with the 37-110 for McDavid. For the first part of the year he was passing up great shots and trying to pass. I understand why as a young player, you see it happen all the time. Yet he still ended up with 30 goals. With him passing up some good shot and trying to force a pass, it probably cost him 5-10 pts. So I can easily see 110 pts.

I think/hope the Oilers play Draisaitl at center. I have said it many times, as good as Leon and McDavid are together, the Oilers best line up is to have them each as a center. Leon is easily the Oilers second best center and the Oilers NEED to have a second line scoring. As much as I love Nuge, I don't see him as a second mine center for the Oilers. So if Leon is anchoring his own line, I see him as a 26-70 pt center.

IF they do decide to play Leon with McDavid, then over 80 for sure but I just don't think that is best for the team. If the Oilers have McDavid and Leon as the 1-2 punch, that is easily the best young 1-2 punch in the league and the only one that rivals it would be Crosby - Malkin.


I agree on numerous fronts.
I do think the Oilers are best with 2 offense driving centers and the best way to do that is with McDavid and Drisaitl. I do think that there is a chance that both can prove on last years point totals but it will come down to the scoring wingers more than the two of them shooting more. Both guys are great passers and will need whoever ends up on the wings to bury a good percentage of chances.



"My wife told me Edmonton was going to win the pick that day," said Gretzky. "That was the day that I retired 16 years ago. So, she said, for whatever reason, the Oilers have good luck today. Connor McDavid went to Edmonton."

Send a private message to this user  

 Re: Expectations for McDavid and Draisaitl [message #697821 is a reply to message #697820 ]
Thu, 20 July 2017 11:35 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently online RDOilerfan
Messages: 2169
Registered: January 2016

2 Cups

If the Oilers have MCDavid at 100+ points as their #1 and then Leon at 70+ as their #2, that would be fantastic. There are a lot of teams who don't even have 1 forward crack 70 pts. When I say that, that isn't me being Mr. Super optimistic, that's actually realistic expectations. Exciting times!!


Send a private message to this user  

 Re: Expectations for McDavid and Draisaitl [message #697822 is a reply to message #697821 ]
Thu, 20 July 2017 11:50 Go to previous messageGo to next message
PlusOne  is currently offline PlusOne
Messages: 1006
Registered: July 2006
Location: Regina, Sask

1 Cup

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 20 July 2017 11:35

If the Oilers have MCDavid at 100+ points as their #1 and then Leon at 70+ as their #2, that would be fantastic. There are a lot of teams who don't even have 1 forward crack 70 pts. When I say that, that isn't me being Mr. Super optimistic, that's actually realistic expectations. Exciting times!!


As much as I have complained about the moves I dont agree with, mostly to do with out choices on the wing, I agree completely.

I spent a decade pissed off that the Oilers needed Centerman and Defenceman, not to mention our run of bad goaltending.

I am really glad to be at a point where I am concerned about the ability to turn the corner because of depth issues not because we are lacking the positions required to contend.

I honestly still find it hard to believe that for the next decade the Oilers have a player who is likely the best in the league over that time



"My wife told me Edmonton was going to win the pick that day," said Gretzky. "That was the day that I retired 16 years ago. So, she said, for whatever reason, the Oilers have good luck today. Connor McDavid went to Edmonton."

Send a private message to this user  

 Re: Expectations for McDavid and Draisaitl [message #697824 is a reply to message #697822 ]
Thu, 20 July 2017 12:09 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently online RDOilerfan
Messages: 2169
Registered: January 2016

2 Cups

I have always been of the opinion that the way to build a team is to have good goaltending, good defense and really good top 2 centers preferably with size. I am also of the opinion that the best place to spend your money is spend some on having good goaltending though I wouldn't break the bank. You spend some money on your top 4 defense and spend some on your top 2 centers. If you have really good centers, you can get away with having somewhat lesser wingers.

To me, it looks like the Oilers are moving into that mode. I think they have the 2, really good, top 2 centers you need figured out. The defense is probably not quite there but its getting close. If Benning and Nurse continue to improve like they are, the Oilers will have the pieces to have a good top 4 and even a decent top 6.

[Updated on: Thu, 20 July 2017 12:21]


Send a private message to this user  

 Re: Expectations for McDavid and Draisaitl [message #697823 is a reply to message #697821 ]
Thu, 20 July 2017 11:59 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Goose  is currently offline Goose
Messages: 1617
Registered: October 2006
Location: Vancouver

1 Cup

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 20 July 2017 10:35

If the Oilers have MCDavid at 100+ points as their #1 and then Leon at 70+ as their #2, that would be fantastic. There are a lot of teams who don't even have 1 forward crack 70 pts. When I say that, that isn't me being Mr. Super optimistic, that's actually realistic expectations. Exciting times!!


Ya, I think that 70pts is doable for Leon. He had 27 pts on the PP last year, which tied McDavid for the team lead. And the entire 1st unit will be healthy to start the year. I think Lucic may see a dip in his PP production (last year was well above his previous seasons), but I think the rest of the group can make up for that. And I still like the option of putting a 2nd RH shot on the 1st unit (Puljujarvi or less likely Strome), which may make them more effective.

So if he's in around 25 pts on the PP, then he's looking at 45pts at 5x5 to get to 70. He had 50 last year, but that was playing a lot with McDavid. If they move him to centre (which, I agree, is the best move for the team), he's likely to see a bit of a dip there. Also, would be good to see him playing a bit more against tougher competition (especially if they bridge him, as it would be good to see if he will be worth $8M+ going forward). PuckIQ has him playing 35% of his 5x5 against Elite competition last year, 6th most among forwards after RNH, Eberle, Lucic Maroon and McDavid. RNH was at 42%, and as we've discussed wasn't super effective. Would be great to see Leon take on some of that load, but that means his overall production probably drops a bit.

So I think 70+pts is definitely realistic, but also wouldn't shock me to see him at 65pts, while taking on tougher comp, and less McDavid time (keep in mind 65pts would have still been 26th best in the league last year, just behind John Tavares. It's a very good season).

Totally agree that it is nice to have these options and not have to talk about Arcobello (whom I thought was somewhat underrated) playing a Top 2 centre role on the team.

Still have to get Leon signed though icon_wink

Link to the playing time info from PuckIQ:
http://puckiq.com/teams/EDM



Send a private message to this user  

 Re: Expectations for McDavid and Draisaitl [message #697825 is a reply to message #697823 ]
Thu, 20 July 2017 12:19 Go to previous message
RDOilerfan is currently online RDOilerfan
Messages: 2169
Registered: January 2016

2 Cups

Goose wrote on Thu, 20 July 2017 11:59

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 20 July 2017 10:35

If the Oilers have MCDavid at 100+ points as their #1 and then Leon at 70+ as their #2, that would be fantastic. There are a lot of teams who don't even have 1 forward crack 70 pts. When I say that, that isn't me being Mr. Super optimistic, that's actually realistic expectations. Exciting times!!


Ya, I think that 70pts is doable for Leon. He had 27 pts on the PP last year, which tied McDavid for the team lead. And the entire 1st unit will be healthy to start the year. I think Lucic may see a dip in his PP production (last year was well above his previous seasons), but I think the rest of the group can make up for that. And I still like the option of putting a 2nd RH shot on the 1st unit (Puljujarvi or less likely Strome), which may make them more effective.

So if he's in around 25 pts on the PP, then he's looking at 45pts at 5x5 to get to 70. He had 50 last year, but that was playing a lot with McDavid. If they move him to centre (which, I agree, is the best move for the team), he's likely to see a bit of a dip there. Also, would be good to see him playing a bit more against tougher competition (especially if they bridge him, as it would be good to see if he will be worth $8M+ going forward). PuckIQ has him playing 35% of his 5x5 against Elite competition last year, 6th most among forwards after RNH, Eberle, Lucic Maroon and McDavid. RNH was at 42%, and as we've discussed wasn't super effective. Would be great to see Leon take on some of that load, but that means his overall production probably drops a bit.

So I think 70+pts is definitely realistic, but also wouldn't shock me to see him at 65pts, while taking on tougher comp, and less McDavid time (keep in mind 65pts would have still been 26th best in the league last year, just behind John Tavares. It's a very good season).

Totally agree that it is nice to have these options and not have to talk about Arcobello (whom I thought was somewhat underrated) playing a Top 2 centre role on the team.

Still have to get Leon signed though icon_wink

Link to the playing time info from PuckIQ:
http://puckiq.com/teams/EDM


If Leon can be the Oilers version of Kopitar. A big, faceoff winning, decent 2 way, usually 65-75 pt center, who's probably slightly a better skater and they can have that for 2-3 mill less than Kopitar who makes 10 mill, I can handle that. icon_biggrin



Send a private message to this user  

 
Previous Topic:Matthews is better than McDavid - E5
Next Topic:Hurricanes "Close to" being sold for $500 million
Oilers NHL Minors Speculation For Sale 


Copyright © OilFans.com 1996-2017.
All content is property of OilFans.com and cannot be used without expressed, written consent from this site.
Questions, comments and suggestions can be directed to oilfans@OilFans.com
Privacy Statement


Hosted by LogicalHosting.ca