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 Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708107]
Tue, 30 January 2018 08:25 Go to next message
MJ  is currently offline MJ
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Well that is reassuring!

https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/1476278-oilers-talbot-we-r e-going-to-make-the-playoffs

0.4% chance right now. http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western/Pacific/Edmonton. html

And what else was he supposed to say? We plan to be fallin for Dahlin?

Come to think of it, I'm not actually so sure how to pronounce Dahlin. I guess I need to pay more attention to sports radio or TV for hockey prospect babble.

[Updated on: Tue, 30 January 2018 08:27]


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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708109 is a reply to message #708107 ]
Tue, 30 January 2018 08:37 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently online RDOilerfan
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I think most of us agree that it will take a miracle to make the playoffs but I have no problem if the team believes they will. They should. They need to go on a crazy run just to have a chance but it will never happen if they don't believe to a man they are capable. They need to get their game in order to even have a chance at getting into it but they also need to get their game in order so hopefully they can figure out some roster issues and have it carry over to next year. So if a belief they will make the playoffs helps them figure their game out, then believe all you want.

I am glad that Talbot said that because the first thing that has to happen is Talbot has to figure out his game, play consistently good hockey and go on a run.



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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708110 is a reply to message #708109 ]
Tue, 30 January 2018 08:50 Go to previous messageGo to next message
NZ Oiler Fan  is currently offline NZ Oiler Fan
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I think it's pronounced Da-Leen. Or at least that's how they were pronouncing it during the jrs


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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708115 is a reply to message #708110 ]
Tue, 30 January 2018 09:25 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently online Adam
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NZ Oiler Fan wrote on Tue, 30 January 2018 08:50

I think it's pronounced Da-Leen. Or at least that's how they were pronouncing it during the jrs


So does that make it Fa-leen for Dahlin? I want to make sure I'm pronouncing this right...



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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708111 is a reply to message #708109 ]
Tue, 30 January 2018 08:55 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently online Adam
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Nothing to be lost by a little confidence and bravado. The players should be fighting for a playoff spot.

Management has to be a little more clear-headed and should be looking at trades for expiring contracts on players who won't be back. Maybe if the team runs the table in February you can re-examine that before pulling the trigger, but it's pretty unlikely now. I definitely wouldn't be spending our first round pick and all that "Cap Space" on deadline help though...



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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708113 is a reply to message #708111 ]
Tue, 30 January 2018 09:19 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Oiler76  is currently offline Oiler76
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Shouldn't this be in Speculation? icon_biggrin icon_biggrin icon_biggrin


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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708116 is a reply to message #708107 ]
Tue, 30 January 2018 09:29 Go to previous messageGo to next message
WhoreableGuy  is currently offline WhoreableGuy
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Sometimes these bold predictions suck because it could end up falling right back in your face and then the media will have another story.

I will say this though, Talbot is the main piece of an actual "making the Playoffs" run. Aside from the horrendous special teams it's the goaltending that has separated last years team and this team.

I hope Talbot's bold prediction pushes himself to have the best 30 game stretch of his career.



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- Jim Ross calling the NHL Draft Lotto 2015 as the Oilers win

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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708119 is a reply to message #708116 ]
Tue, 30 January 2018 09:53 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently online RDOilerfan
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WhoreableGuy wrote on Tue, 30 January 2018 09:29

Sometimes these bold predictions suck because it could end up falling right back in your face and then the media will have another story.

I will say this though, Talbot is the main piece of an actual "making the Playoffs" run. Aside from the horrendous special teams it's the goaltending that has separated last years team and this team.

I hope Talbot's bold prediction pushes himself to have the best 30 game stretch of his career.


I also hope that Talbot picks it up because if he doesn't, it won't happen. A good example is the Flames. I get to hear lots of Calgary radio being in Red Deer. Based on everything they talk about in Calgary on a daily basis, the Flames have been OK but not great. Gaudreau has been really good so he is carrying his line but the rest of the team have been alright but nothing special. The defense who everyone said was going to be one of the best in the league has been mediocre. Their PP is 24th and their PK is 17th. So not that great. Even their goal diff is +2. The difference has been Smith. He's been fantastic. 2.39 GA and a .926%



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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708122 is a reply to message #708119 ]
Tue, 30 January 2018 10:39 Go to previous messageGo to next message
nullterm  is currently offline nullterm
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Cam. Oh, Cam.

This is going to require a Rodney Dangerfield’s Back To School level mega cram of wins to ace every exam and pull off the Triple Lindy to graduate.

Do it for Rodney!




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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708123 is a reply to message #708122 ]
Tue, 30 January 2018 10:48 Go to previous messageGo to next message
jerekybeef  is currently offline jerekybeef
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nullterm wrote on Tue, 30 January 2018 09:39

Cam. Oh, Cam.

This is going to require a Rodney Dangerfield’s Back To School level mega cram of wins to ace every exam and pull off the Triple Lindy to graduate.

Do it for Rodney!





This is the winning post for this thread. MJ lock it up now good sir!



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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708125 is a reply to message #708123 ]
Tue, 30 January 2018 11:03 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently online RDOilerfan
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Talbot shouldn't have the excuse of being tired or overworked nor should the team. Thanks to the bye week and allstar break, as of tomorrow the Oilers have played 3 games in the last 18 days. Their game on Thursday will be their 4th game in 19 days.


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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708138 is a reply to message #708119 ]
Tue, 30 January 2018 15:51 Go to previous messageGo to next message
overdue  is currently offline overdue
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Goal tending was what separated us from the also rans last season no doubt about that. When Talbot was on and Conner was great, we were winning games. Also evident in Montreal this season where Price has fallen off. Calgary did what they had to do in the off season and it has payed off.


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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708139 is a reply to message #708138 ]
Tue, 30 January 2018 16:00 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently online RDOilerfan
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overdue wrote on Tue, 30 January 2018 15:51

Goal tending was what separated us from the also rans last season no doubt about that. When Talbot was on and Conner was great, we were winning games. Also evident in Montreal this season where Price has fallen off. Calgary did what they had to do in the off season and it has payed off.

Take any team a person wants, have their starter give them .900 goaltending for the season and they will struggle to make the playoffs.



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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708172 is a reply to message #708139 ]
Wed, 31 January 2018 12:36 Go to previous messageGo to next message
JPro  is currently offline JPro
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RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 30 January 2018 16:00

overdue wrote on Tue, 30 January 2018 15:51

Goal tending was what separated us from the also rans last season no doubt about that. When Talbot was on and Conner was great, we were winning games. Also evident in Montreal this season where Price has fallen off. Calgary did what they had to do in the off season and it has payed off.

Take any team a person wants, have their starter give them .900 goaltending for the season and they will struggle to make the playoffs.

Take any goalie you want. Give them the 2017/2018 Oilers defence and penalty kill and they'll struggle to do better than .900.



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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708173 is a reply to message #708172 ]
Wed, 31 January 2018 12:44 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
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JPro wrote on Wed, 31 January 2018 12:36

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 30 January 2018 16:00

overdue wrote on Tue, 30 January 2018 15:51

Goal tending was what separated us from the also rans last season no doubt about that. When Talbot was on and Conner was great, we were winning games. Also evident in Montreal this season where Price has fallen off. Calgary did what they had to do in the off season and it has payed off.

Take any team a person wants, have their starter give them .900 goaltending for the season and they will struggle to make the playoffs.

Take any goalie you want. Give them the 2017/2018 Oilers defence and penalty kill and they'll struggle to do better than .900.


I think some goalies are better than others at handling a lot of work. Bobby Lou would get pummelled every night when he was first in florida and would actually do OK. Although his team would still just keep wasting his efforts. Talbot last year too was far more able to handle a big load. Buffalo went on a run of trading away goalies that refused to get lit up while they intentionally tanked. Dubs was traded from Arizona for the same reason.

Talbot is just having a crap season like any other guys. I am inclined to believe he has an injury of some sort that didn't help, but he came out of the gates this year pretty bad too. Probably got injured at some point in Oct while we overplayed him because there was no trust in LB.



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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708174 is a reply to message #708173 ]
Wed, 31 January 2018 12:47 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently online Adam
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Kr55 wrote on Wed, 31 January 2018 12:44


Talbot is just having a crap season like any other guys. I am inclined to believe he has an injury of some sort that didn't help, but he came out of the gates this year pretty bad too. Probably got injured at some point in Oct while we overplayed him because there was no trust in LB.


And now word that he's doubtful for tomorrow's game. Has he been hurt all year?

ETA: Apparently Talbot is sick. I hope that's factual.

[Updated on: Wed, 31 January 2018 13:01]


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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708176 is a reply to message #708174 ]
Wed, 31 January 2018 13:26 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Gator21  is currently offline Gator21
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Adam wrote on Wed, 31 January 2018 12:47

Kr55 wrote on Wed, 31 January 2018 12:44


Talbot is just having a crap season like any other guys. I am inclined to believe he has an injury of some sort that didn't help, but he came out of the gates this year pretty bad too. Probably got injured at some point in Oct while we overplayed him because there was no trust in LB.


And now word that he's doubtful for tomorrow's game. Has he been hurt all year?

ETA: Apparently Talbot is sick. I hope that's factual.


Any idea of what Adam Larsson's "personal issue" is that looks like will keep him out for a over a week?



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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708177 is a reply to message #708176 ]
Wed, 31 January 2018 13:35 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently online Adam
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Gator21 wrote on Wed, 31 January 2018 13:26

Adam wrote on Wed, 31 January 2018 12:47

Kr55 wrote on Wed, 31 January 2018 12:44


Talbot is just having a crap season like any other guys. I am inclined to believe he has an injury of some sort that didn't help, but he came out of the gates this year pretty bad too. Probably got injured at some point in Oct while we overplayed him because there was no trust in LB.


And now word that he's doubtful for tomorrow's game. Has he been hurt all year?

ETA: Apparently Talbot is sick. I hope that's factual.


Any idea of what Adam Larsson's "personal issue" is that looks like will keep him out for a over a week?


For me - I've heard nothing at all. I haven't even seen any rumours on it. Something family-related from the sounds of it. I hope everyone's well.



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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708192 is a reply to message #708177 ]
Wed, 31 January 2018 22:14 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Gator21  is currently offline Gator21
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Adam wrote on Wed, 31 January 2018 13:35

Gator21 wrote on Wed, 31 January 2018 13:26

Adam wrote on Wed, 31 January 2018 12:47

Kr55 wrote on Wed, 31 January 2018 12:44


Talbot is just having a crap season like any other guys. I am inclined to believe he has an injury of some sort that didn't help, but he came out of the gates this year pretty bad too. Probably got injured at some point in Oct while we overplayed him because there was no trust in LB.


And now word that he's doubtful for tomorrow's game. Has he been hurt all year?

ETA: Apparently Talbot is sick. I hope that's factual.


Any idea of what Adam Larsson's "personal issue" is that looks like will keep him out for a over a week?


For me - I've heard nothing at all. I haven't even seen any rumours on it. Something family-related from the sounds of it. I hope everyone's well.


I wonder if he's back in Sweden or here in EDM.



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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708179 is a reply to message #708174 ]
Wed, 31 January 2018 14:09 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Skookum Jim  is currently offline Skookum Jim
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Adam wrote on Wed, 31 January 2018 11:47

Kr55 wrote on Wed, 31 January 2018 12:44


Talbot is just having a crap season like any other guys. I am inclined to believe he has an injury of some sort that didn't help, but he came out of the gates this year pretty bad too. Probably got injured at some point in Oct while we overplayed him because there was no trust in LB.


And now word that he's doubtful for tomorrow's game. Has he been hurt all year?

ETA: Apparently Talbot is sick. I hope that's factual.


He just realized he practically guaranteed a playoff spot this year.. and he's now feeling a tad nauseous.. over to you Al Montoya!



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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708127 is a reply to message #708107 ]
Tue, 30 January 2018 11:43 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mightyreasoner  is currently offline mightyreasoner
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I mean, the alternative to this answer is that they won't and then the narrative turns to how he has given up on the season and is a quitter. Damned no matter what he says.

They won't make the playoffs. But Cam shouldn't say that. I'm glad he didn't, because in Canadian market, he'd never be forgiven for doing so.



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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708133 is a reply to message #708127 ]
Tue, 30 January 2018 12:51 Go to previous messageGo to next message
GabbyDugan  is currently offline GabbyDugan
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mightyreasoner wrote on Tue, 30 January 2018 11:43

I mean, the alternative to this answer is that they won't and then the narrative turns to how he has given up on the season and is a quitter. Damned no matter what he says.

They won't make the playoffs. But Cam shouldn't say that. I'm glad he didn't, because in Canadian market, he'd never be forgiven for doing so.


.....so true...if he were a position player, Talbot would be wearing one of the "A"'s....he does say the right things more often than the coach or GM...

....not much reported from Tuesday's morning team practice other than Adam Larsson and Conner McDavid did not skate...Larsson dealing with a personal family with no set time for his return....

https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/tuesday-updates-from-rogers- place/c-295429212?tid=281885062


...."Connor McDavid and Adam Larsson did not skate.

Lines at practice appeared to be:

Lucic - Khaira - Puljujarvi

Cammalleri - Draisaitl - Slepyshev

Maroon - Strome - Caggiula

Pakarinen - Letestu - Kassian"....




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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708140 is a reply to message #708127 ]
Tue, 30 January 2018 16:02 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently online RDOilerfan
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mightyreasoner wrote on Tue, 30 January 2018 11:43

I mean, the alternative to this answer is that they won't and then the narrative turns to how he has given up on the season and is a quitter. Damned no matter what he says.

They won't make the playoffs. But Cam shouldn't say that. I'm glad he didn't, because in Canadian market, he'd never be forgiven for doing so.


If you are a pro player and if there is any possible chance no matter how slim, you should be giving it your all. If there are players on the Oilers mailing it in already, then they need to go.



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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708142 is a reply to message #708107 ]
Tue, 30 January 2018 18:51 Go to previous messageGo to next message
g2k  is currently offline g2k
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So blown out of proportion. What is he supposed to say?

The real answer would have caused a brush fire.



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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708148 is a reply to message #708142 ]
Tue, 30 January 2018 23:14 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Magnum  is currently offline Magnum
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Okay, what if they did make the playoffs?

What if it was a result of an astute Chia trade?

Would you take everything bad you said about management back?



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2016/2017 - This Kool-Aid is starting to taste like juice.
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2018/2019 - Another round of Drain-O, good sir!

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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708149 is a reply to message #708148 ]
Tue, 30 January 2018 23:28 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi  is currently offline CrusaderPi
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Magnum wrote on Tue, 30 January 2018 23:14

Okay, what if they did make the playoffs?

What if it was a result of an astute Chia trade?

Would you take everything bad you said about management back?

I'm am always willing to be proven wrong. So yes, if part two of Chiarelli 2017-18 master plan has him taking advantage of other GMs to fill the gaps he created and ignored in the opening day roster while the team goes on a crazy run of playing .800 hockey to make the playoffs I will happily admit I was wrong. Happily. Especially if part two of the master plan is used as a launch pad for Stanley Cup success this year and next.

Or he's just not very good at his job and the Oilers will continue their generation long tradition of being an embarrassment.



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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708152 is a reply to message #708149 ]
Wed, 31 January 2018 07:59 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrudeRemarks  is currently offline CrudeRemarks
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Hint: It's the 2nd one.


You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you just might find, you can get a lottery pick.


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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708153 is a reply to message #708152 ]
Wed, 31 January 2018 08:21 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi  is currently offline CrusaderPi
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CrudeRemarks wrote on Wed, 31 January 2018 07:59

Hint: It's the 2nd one.

Well, obviously, but the team has to sell hope somehow.



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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708154 is a reply to message #708153 ]
Wed, 31 January 2018 08:36 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently online RDOilerfan
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The Oilers could make the playoffs and win the cup this year and there would be a segment of people in here that would still hate on Chia and McLellan. I am of the belief that the blame for not making the playoffs should be split 3 ways evenly.
Chia - Deserves blame for a combination of a bad Reinhart trade that cost them potential assets that could have been impact players and betting on players that didn't work out.

McLellan - Deserves blame because he is the boss for his assistants and the terrible special teams that are costing them games. Either they are not coming up with the right scheme or not conveying it in a way that the players can execute it properly. Regardless, the special teams have sucked for a long time.

Players - Deserve blame for I believe coming out early on in the seasons, believing their media hype and thinking they can just show up and beat teams without trying. I also think there have been many players who for whatever reason either didn't come into the season prepared or flat out haven't played they way they can.

This team is far from perfect but in no way should they be where they are at.



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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708155 is a reply to message #708154 ]
Wed, 31 January 2018 09:07 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi  is currently offline CrusaderPi
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RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 31 January 2018 08:36

The Oilers could make the playoffs and win the cup this year and there would be a segment of people in here that would still hate on Chia and McLellan. I am of the belief that the blame for not making the playoffs should be split 3 ways evenly.
Chia - Deserves blame for a combination of a bad Reinhart trade that cost them potential assets that could have been impact players and betting on players that didn't work out.

McLellan - Deserves blame because he is the boss for his assistants and the terrible special teams that are costing them games. Either they are not coming up with the right scheme or not conveying it in a way that the players can execute it properly. Regardless, the special teams have sucked for a long time.

Players - Deserve blame for I believe coming out early on in the seasons, believing their media hype and thinking they can just show up and beat teams without trying. I also think there have been many players who for whatever reason either didn't come into the season prepared or flat out haven't played they way they can.

This team is far from perfect but in no way should they be where they are at.

Maybe there are people more critical of the Oilers than me, maybe. If I'm not the most critical I certainly reside in the top couple of percentages. *IF* the team turns this season and this decade around I will freely admit I'm wrong about Chiarelli and McLellan. I only ask for proof on the ice. Speaking of proof, the evidence we fans have seen shows the Oilers are EXACTLY where they ought to be. The Oilers are a bad NHL team wasting another NHL season. 12 points out.


Quick additional point: If the Oilers do turn this season around I will not admit Lowe, Mactavish, and the rest of them aren't awful because they are awful hockey suits. Awful. Demonstrably awful. Simply awful.



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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708160 is a reply to message #708155 ]
Wed, 31 January 2018 10:23 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently online RDOilerfan
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CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 31 January 2018 09:07

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 31 January 2018 08:36

The Oilers could make the playoffs and win the cup this year and there would be a segment of people in here that would still hate on Chia and McLellan. I am of the belief that the blame for not making the playoffs should be split 3 ways evenly.
Chia - Deserves blame for a combination of a bad Reinhart trade that cost them potential assets that could have been impact players and betting on players that didn't work out.

McLellan - Deserves blame because he is the boss for his assistants and the terrible special teams that are costing them games. Either they are not coming up with the right scheme or not conveying it in a way that the players can execute it properly. Regardless, the special teams have sucked for a long time.

Players - Deserve blame for I believe coming out early on in the seasons, believing their media hype and thinking they can just show up and beat teams without trying. I also think there have been many players who for whatever reason either didn't come into the season prepared or flat out haven't played they way they can.

This team is far from perfect but in no way should they be where they are at.

Maybe there are people more critical of the Oilers than me, maybe. If I'm not the most critical I certainly reside in the top couple of percentages. *IF* the team turns this season and this decade around I will freely admit I'm wrong about Chiarelli and McLellan. I only ask for proof on the ice. Speaking of proof, the evidence we fans have seen shows the Oilers are EXACTLY where they ought to be. The Oilers are a bad NHL team wasting another NHL season. 12 points out.


Quick additional point: If the Oilers do turn this season around I will not admit Lowe, Mactavish, and the rest of them aren't awful because they are awful hockey suits. Awful. Demonstrably awful. Simply awful.

I am not saying the Oilers roster doesn't have holes in it because it definitely does but if your what was he 4th in vezina voting last year starting goalie is even giving you .910 goaltending, which most people would still say is pretty mediocre instead of barely .900, it's probably safe to say they could easily have another 6-8 pts with the exactly the same flawed line up and be right in the hunt. Maybe that point total is more, I don't know. Talbot is 41st in save percentage. http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?report=goaliesummary&rep ortType=season&seasonFrom=20172018&seasonTo=20172018 &gameType=2&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,16&sort=saveP ctg,wins,goalsAgainstAverage

I know exactly what will come next. "Well if they had a better back up, blah, blah, blah." If you are a team that has what you call a legit NHL starter, even if you have a "good back up", how much does your starter play? I would guess 75-80% of a teams games. 75% of 82 is 61.5, 80% of 82 is 65.6. Holtby who has a really, really good back up played 63 games last year. So I am guessing my percentages are pretty close. So if you are getting .900 goaltending in almost 80% of your games, I don't care how good your roster is, you aren't going to win a lot.



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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708164 is a reply to message #708160 ]
Wed, 31 January 2018 11:18 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrudeRemarks  is currently offline CrudeRemarks
Messages: 386
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Location: Edmonton

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It's nice seeing everyone agree on this. The Oilers are bad because:

Chiarelli makes poor decisions (but only the major ones, he nails the small stuff).
McClellan is an average coach who refuses to make adjustments to his or his assistants' schemes.
The players that Chiarelli brought in and/or kept aren't good enough.




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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708165 is a reply to message #708164 ]
Wed, 31 January 2018 11:30 Go to previous messageGo to next message
GabbyDugan  is currently offline GabbyDugan
Messages: 904
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton, AB

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...hmmm...Talbot not on the ice for practice Wednesday morning....some unnamed university goalie was helping out...

...some tuneups on the lines....

https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/blog-practice-updates-131/c- 295477168?tid=281885062

..."Cam Talbot, Zack Kassian and Adam Larsson did not skate. In Talbot's absence, the Oilers have a University of Alberta goaltender on the ice.

Lines at practice appear to be:

Cammalleri - McDavid - Draisaitl

Maroon - Strome - Caggiula

Lucic - Khaira - Puljujarvi

Pakarinen - Letestu - Slepyshev...."





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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708167 is a reply to message #708160 ]
Wed, 31 January 2018 11:48 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently online Adam
Messages: 9504
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Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 31 January 2018 10:23


I am not saying the Oilers roster doesn't have holes in it because it definitely does but if your what was he 4th in vezina voting last year starting goalie is even giving you .910 goaltending, which most people would still say is pretty mediocre instead of barely .900, it's probably safe to say they could easily have another 6-8 pts with the exactly the same flawed line up and be right in the hunt. Maybe that point total is more, I don't know. Talbot is 41st in save percentage. http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?report=goaliesummary&rep ortType=season&seasonFrom=20172018&seasonTo=20172018 &gameType=2&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,16&sort=saveP ctg,wins,goalsAgainstAverage

I know exactly what will come next. "Well if they had a better back up, blah, blah, blah." If you are a team that has what you call a legit NHL starter, even if you have a "good back up", how much does your starter play? I would guess 75-80% of a teams games. 75% of 82 is 61.5, 80% of 82 is 65.6. Holtby who has a really, really good back up played 63 games last year. So I am guessing my percentages are pretty close. So if you are getting .900 goaltending in almost 80% of your games, I don't care how good your roster is, you aren't going to win a lot.


So I argued that last year was not the GM and coach, but a combination of three elements:

1) Connor McDavid
2) Health - especially at the top of the roster
3) Cam Talbot

Talbot's decline this year definitely is an element of the decline this year, but goalie stats are not true individual marks. The system and the quality of shots allowed play a large role in save percentage.

The health is definitely a factor too. It was foolish of the Oilers to rely on having that same luck again...especially given that they knew in the summer that they were without Sekera and that Klefbom had serious shoulder issues too - albeit ones they felt might be manageable without surgery.

The Reinhart deal is only the tip of the iceberg in the management incompetence from the Oilers under Chiarelli. He's downgraded our winger strength significantly and done it suggesting that that's the easiest thing to acquire, but then been completely unable to acquire winger strength. Center is strong, but we already had that strength in the organization when he joined. We traded away world-class wing strength and we've only managed to get marginally better on defence. Back-up goaltending has been an issue and Talbot's injury issues this year exacerbated that. It's the third year in a row the Oilers gambled on a back-up who had massive question marks and little to suggest they were capable. Here's the record in games where Talbot isn't given the decision in Chia's tenure:

2015-16 10-16-3
2016-17 5-4-1 (although most wins came in Brossoit starts late season against scrub teams - Gustavsson went 1-3-1)
2017-18 4-7-1

That's 19-27-5 in three seasons. Woefully inadequate, which puts undue stress on your starter. He can't ever falter or the team is screwed. And god forbid he gets hurt...

As you mention, coaching has been another major issue and was even last year. PP was better, but PK struggled badly. McLellan also was completely outcoached in the playoffs last year and seems to not realize that influencing referees is actually part of his job description.

Yes, players share a good portion of the blame, but the incompetence at the top of this organization and the lack of accountability at the top levels sets the stage for everything else that happens with this team.

As for would I forgive all if the team turns it around and makes the playoffs? It depends how it does it. If it's all McDavid and Talbot driving the bus, I'm probably inclined not to give too much credit to our shabby management and mediocre coaching.



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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708169 is a reply to message #708167 ]
Wed, 31 January 2018 12:17 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently online RDOilerfan
Messages: 3331
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3 Cups

Adam wrote on Wed, 31 January 2018 11:48

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 31 January 2018 10:23


I am not saying the Oilers roster doesn't have holes in it because it definitely does but if your what was he 4th in vezina voting last year starting goalie is even giving you .910 goaltending, which most people would still say is pretty mediocre instead of barely .900, it's probably safe to say they could easily have another 6-8 pts with the exactly the same flawed line up and be right in the hunt. Maybe that point total is more, I don't know. Talbot is 41st in save percentage. http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?report=goaliesummary&rep ortType=season&seasonFrom=20172018&seasonTo=20172018 &gameType=2&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,16&sort=saveP ctg,wins,goalsAgainstAverage

I know exactly what will come next. "Well if they had a better back up, blah, blah, blah." If you are a team that has what you call a legit NHL starter, even if you have a "good back up", how much does your starter play? I would guess 75-80% of a teams games. 75% of 82 is 61.5, 80% of 82 is 65.6. Holtby who has a really, really good back up played 63 games last year. So I am guessing my percentages are pretty close. So if you are getting .900 goaltending in almost 80% of your games, I don't care how good your roster is, you aren't going to win a lot.


So I argued that last year was not the GM and coach, but a combination of three elements:

1) Connor McDavid
2) Health - especially at the top of the roster
3) Cam Talbot

Talbot's decline this year definitely is an element of the decline this year, but goalie stats are not true individual marks. The system and the quality of shots allowed play a large role in save percentage.

The health is definitely a factor too. It was foolish of the Oilers to rely on having that same luck again...especially given that they knew in the summer that they were without Sekera and that Klefbom had serious shoulder issues too - albeit ones they felt might be manageable without surgery.

The Reinhart deal is only the tip of the iceberg in the management incompetence from the Oilers under Chiarelli. He's downgraded our winger strength significantly and done it suggesting that that's the easiest thing to acquire, but then been completely unable to acquire winger strength. Center is strong, but we already had that strength in the organization when he joined. We traded away world-class wing strength and we've only managed to get marginally better on defence. Back-up goaltending has been an issue and Talbot's injury issues this year exacerbated that. It's the third year in a row the Oilers gambled on a back-up who had massive question marks and little to suggest they were capable. Here's the record in games where Talbot isn't given the decision in Chia's tenure:

2015-16 10-16-3
2016-17 5-4-1 (although most wins came in Brossoit starts late season against scrub teams - Gustavsson went 1-3-1)
2017-18 4-7-1

That's 19-27-5 in three seasons. Woefully inadequate, which puts undue stress on your starter. He can't ever falter or the team is screwed. And god forbid he gets hurt...

As you mention, coaching has been another major issue and was even last year. PP was better, but PK struggled badly. McLellan also was completely outcoached in the playoffs last year and seems to not realize that influencing referees is actually part of his job description.

Yes, players share a good portion of the blame, but the incompetence at the top of this organization and the lack of accountability at the top levels sets the stage for everything else that happens with this team.

As for would I forgive all if the team turns it around and makes the playoffs? It depends how it does it. If it's all McDavid and Talbot driving the bus, I'm probably inclined not to give too much credit to our shabby management and mediocre coaching.

I have said more times than I can remember, that management is definitely at fault for some of the teams woes. But I really don't care if the Chia made no mistakes, if Eberle and Hall are still here and the Oilers roster was a lot better. If Talbot is giving you .901 goaltending and over 3 goals a game hockey, you aren't winning a lot of games. This is a 3-2 league. If you have to score 4 goals a game to win, your chances are pretty slim.

So I get it, you hate Chia. I also agree, he hasn't done a good enough job. But all it would take for this team to be in the playoffs is Talbot to play better. That's it. IT doesn't excuse the mistakes of Chia, it doesn't mean the roster doesn't still need to be better but if Talbot is doing his job and giving you even average starters goaltending, they are in it.



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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708170 is a reply to message #708169 ]
Wed, 31 January 2018 12:29 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently online Adam
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6 Cups

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 31 January 2018 12:17


I have said more times than I can remember, that management is definitely at fault for some of the teams woes. But I really don't care if the Chia made no mistakes, if Eberle and Hall are still here and the Oilers roster was a lot better. If Talbot is giving you .901 goaltending and over 3 goals a game hockey, you aren't winning a lot of games. This is a 3-2 league. If you have to score 4 goals a game to win, your chances are pretty slim.

So I get it, you hate Chia. I also agree, he hasn't done a good enough job. But all it would take for this team to be in the playoffs is Talbot to play better. That's it. IT doesn't excuse the mistakes of Chia, it doesn't mean the roster doesn't still need to be better but if Talbot is doing his job and giving you even average starters goaltending, they are in it.


A) I don't hate Chia. I just don't think he's good at his job. It's a pretty critical difference there. It's not personal animosity, it's about competence. I don't hate Lowe or MacTavish or Howson or McLellan. However, I don't think they've done a good job and I believe they've done a demonstrably bad job at so many points that they all don't deserve to be running a professional hockey team.

B) You didn't seem to read the whole part about the importance of shot quality and systems on goaltenders' save percentages. You also seem to miss the importance of a quality back-up who can spell off the starter if his numbers are flagging, whether due to exhaustion, or injury or just poor play. The Oilers haven't had that option, and so they continued to play a goalie with a nagging injury early in the season, which led to him having to take about 10 games off - and the Oilers lost 70% of the time with him out of the goal - which likely means they rushed him back too...

I don't agree that Talbot is the sole reason, because I don't believe that save percentage is an entirely individual stat.



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#FireLowe #FireMacT #FireHowson #FireBuchberger #FireHowsonAgain #FireChiarelli #FireMcLellan #FireBobbyNicks

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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708180 is a reply to message #708170 ]
Wed, 31 January 2018 14:16 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently online RDOilerfan
Messages: 3331
Registered: January 2016

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Adam wrote on Wed, 31 January 2018 12:29

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 31 January 2018 12:17


I have said more times than I can remember, that management is definitely at fault for some of the teams woes. But I really don't care if the Chia made no mistakes, if Eberle and Hall are still here and the Oilers roster was a lot better. If Talbot is giving you .901 goaltending and over 3 goals a game hockey, you aren't winning a lot of games. This is a 3-2 league. If you have to score 4 goals a game to win, your chances are pretty slim.

So I get it, you hate Chia. I also agree, he hasn't done a good enough job. But all it would take for this team to be in the playoffs is Talbot to play better. That's it. IT doesn't excuse the mistakes of Chia, it doesn't mean the roster doesn't still need to be better but if Talbot is doing his job and giving you even average starters goaltending, they are in it.


A) I don't hate Chia. I just don't think he's good at his job. It's a pretty critical difference there. It's not personal animosity, it's about competence. I don't hate Lowe or MacTavish or Howson or McLellan. However, I don't think they've done a good job and I believe they've done a demonstrably bad job at so many points that they all don't deserve to be running a professional hockey team.

B) You didn't seem to read the whole part about the importance of shot quality and systems on goaltenders' save percentages. You also seem to miss the importance of a quality back-up who can spell off the starter if his numbers are flagging, whether due to exhaustion, or injury or just poor play. The Oilers haven't had that option, and so they continued to play a goalie with a nagging injury early in the season, which led to him having to take about 10 games off - and the Oilers lost 70% of the time with him out of the goal - which likely means they rushed him back too...

I don't agree that Talbot is the sole reason, because I don't believe that save percentage is an entirely individual stat.


I read everything you said and sorry but I don't bye into it much.
http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?report=goaliesummary&rep ortType=season&seasonFrom=20172018&seasonTo=20172018 &gameType=2&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,16&sort=saveP ctg,wins,goalsAgainstAverage

There are the stats.

Raanta has a 2.56 GA and a .919%. Arizona has won 12 games, that's it and have a -54 goal diff. Are you telling me that Arizona, the worst team in the league has this amazing system and do a way better job of suppressing quality shots over the Oilers? He's 19 points better than Talbot on the dead last team. Seriously?

Lehner who is on the second last place Buffalo team who has won 14 games, is 11 pts better than Talbot. So they have a dramatically better system than the Oilers? Seriously?

Do I think system helps a goalie, sure it does but Talbot has flat out not played well on a lot of nights.



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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708175 is a reply to message #708169 ]
Wed, 31 January 2018 13:13 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Goose is currently online Goose
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RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 31 January 2018 11:17

But I really don't care if the Chia made no mistakes, if Eberle and Hall are still here and the Oilers roster was a lot better. If Talbot is giving you .901 goaltending and over 3 goals a game hockey, you aren't winning a lot of games. This is a 3-2 league. If you have to score 4 goals a game to win, your chances are pretty slim.

So I get it, you hate Chia. I also agree, he hasn't done a good enough job. But all it would take for this team to be in the playoffs is Talbot to play better. That's it. IT doesn't excuse the mistakes of Chia, it doesn't mean the roster doesn't still need to be better but if Talbot is doing his job and giving you even average starters goaltending, they are in it.


Interestingly, the impact is pretty even. It's hardly a perfect comparison, but Eberle and Hall currently have 35 goals on the year. Their replacements (Strome and Lucic) have 16, for a difference of 19 goals.

Talbot has faced 1124 shots againts and given up 111 goals. If we use his .919 save percentage from last year, he would have given up 91 goals on those same 1124 shots, for a difference of 20 goals.

Now, maybe if Eberle and Hall are still on the Oilers, they wouldn't have 35 goals between them, although they've only scored 7 pp goals, so that shouldn't be a factor. But then, it's probably not fair to assume that Talbot will be a .919 goalie every year.

I think the main takeaway is that a better roster can insulate the team from things like the goalie having an off year.



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games!!

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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708181 is a reply to message #708175 ]
Wed, 31 January 2018 14:29 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently online RDOilerfan
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Goose wrote on Wed, 31 January 2018 13:13

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 31 January 2018 11:17

But I really don't care if the Chia made no mistakes, if Eberle and Hall are still here and the Oilers roster was a lot better. If Talbot is giving you .901 goaltending and over 3 goals a game hockey, you aren't winning a lot of games. This is a 3-2 league. If you have to score 4 goals a game to win, your chances are pretty slim.

So I get it, you hate Chia. I also agree, he hasn't done a good enough job. But all it would take for this team to be in the playoffs is Talbot to play better. That's it. IT doesn't excuse the mistakes of Chia, it doesn't mean the roster doesn't still need to be better but if Talbot is doing his job and giving you even average starters goaltending, they are in it.


Interestingly, the impact is pretty even. It's hardly a perfect comparison, but Eberle and Hall currently have 35 goals on the year. Their replacements (Strome and Lucic) have 16, for a difference of 19 goals.

Talbot has faced 1124 shots againts and given up 111 goals. If we use his .919 save percentage from last year, he would have given up 91 goals on those same 1124 shots, for a difference of 20 goals.

Now, maybe if Eberle and Hall are still on the Oilers, they wouldn't have 35 goals between them, although they've only scored 7 pp goals, so that shouldn't be a factor. But then, it's probably not fair to assume that Talbot will be a .919 goalie every year.

I think the main takeaway is that a better roster can insulate the team from things like the goalie having an off year.


Do I think the Oilers should have gotten a better back up? Yes I do. But I challenge you to show me a team who can have their starter be lousy and be so deep and have such a great back up, that they can roll along not missing a beat.

The Jets are a really good, deep, talented team. They have lots of good forwards and good defense. It's not like they signed a ton of free agents, the bulk of their team was home grown. They have the same coach, I believe same assistants and I would assume the same system. They didn't make the playoffs and have been without their superstar - Schiefelle - for a while know and continue to roll along. So what has changed this year? They have goaltending. They weren't convinced Hellebuck could do the job, so they went out, picked up Mason, surprise, surprise, he sucked. Well Hellebuck has figured it out and has been outstanding. I really have a hard time believing that if Hellebuck wasn't as good, the Jets would be kicking everyone's ass like they are. ONE GUY changed the fortunes of what has looked like a good team for a few years now.

The 2 time champs have been in and out of the playoffs all year. If they make it, they probably just squeak in as they are in a dog fight. If there is a deep team that knows how to win, it's Pittsburgh. So why the struggles so badly? Well they used to have Fleury and Murray as their goalies so when one struggled, the other who would start for most teams stepped in. Fleury had to go so they have Murray and unproven AHL back ups. Gee, sounds like the Oilers situation. Well Murray hasstruggled with injury and hasn't been that good. So I guess Rutherford is an incompetent GM because he didn't go out and get a rock star back up.



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 Re: Talbot: We're going to make the playoffs [message #708182 is a reply to message #708181 ]
Wed, 31 January 2018 15:10 Go to previous messageGo to previous message
Goose is currently online Goose
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RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 31 January 2018 13:29


Do I think the Oilers should have gotten a better back up? Yes I do. But I challenge you to show me a team who can have their starter be lousy and be so deep and have such a great back up, that they can roll along not missing a beat.

The Jets are a really good, deep, talented team. They have lots of good forwards and good defense. It's not like they signed a ton of free agents, the bulk of their team was home grown. They have the same coach, I believe same assistants and I would assume the same system. They didn't make the playoffs and have been without their superstar - Schiefelle - for a while know and continue to roll along. So what has changed this year? They have goaltending. They weren't convinced Hellebuck could do the job, so they went out, picked up Mason, surprise, surprise, he sucked. Well Hellebuck has figured it out and has been outstanding. I really have a hard time believing that if Hellebuck wasn't as good, the Jets would be kicking everyone's ass like they are. ONE GUY changed the fortunes of what has looked like a good team for a few years now.

The 2 time champs have been in and out of the playoffs all year. If they make it, they probably just squeak in as they are in a dog fight. If there is a deep team that knows how to win, it's Pittsburgh. So why the struggles so badly? Well they used to have Fleury and Murray as their goalies so when one struggled, the other who would start for most teams stepped in. Fleury had to go so they have Murray and unproven AHL back ups. Gee, sounds like the Oilers situation. Well Murray hasstruggled with injury and hasn't been that good. So I guess Rutherford is an incompetent GM because he didn't go out and get a rock star back up.


I don't think there's a ton we disagree on here. I'm not saying that if the Oilers had a better backup that they would be on pace for 103pts this year. My point is simply that even with bad goaltending, the Oilers could very easily have been a much better team this year with better roster management.

To use your examples, the Jets are on pace for 268 goals this year, (they had 249 last year). Even if they gave up the same 256 goals that they did last year, they would have a +12 goal differential and would likely still be a playoff team. That's not to discount the impact that their goaltending has had, it's definitely been their biggest change. But it shows how a good roster can balance out poor goaltending. Contrast that with when the Oilers get bad goaltending and are one of the worst teams in the league.

Same goes for the Penguins. They're getting .906 goaltending from Murray and yes, they're worse than last year. But they're also on pace to score 36 goals less than last year (282 vs. 246). If they were scoring at the same rate they were last year, I'm confident they would be comfortably in a playoff position.


[Updated on: Wed, 31 January 2018 15:18]


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